A study released by Challenger Ltd (ASX: CGF) shows Australians aged 60-plus believe the minimum annual income needed to live comfortably and happily in retirement, as a single person, is $70,398.

That is much higher than Australia's benchmark ASFA Retirement Standard.

The Standard says a comfortable retirement costs $54,840 per year for single homeowners and $77,375 per year for couples.

A modest retirement lifestyle costs $35,503 per year for single homeowners and $51,299 per year for couples.

For renters, a modest lifestyle costs $50,055 per year for singles and $67,639 for couples.

The disparity between modest retirement lifestyles for homeowners and renters highlights the advantages of homeownership.

The Standard is updated every quarter to reflect inflation and provide a realistic estimate of retirement costs in today's dollars.

We worry about running out of money

Almost half of the women respondents and 43% of men said they were worried about running out of money in retirement, particularly as the cost of living in Australia rises. One in two pre-retirees also fear running out of money.

The study, developed in partnership with independent research provider YouGov, surveyed a nationally representative sample of 2,015 Australians aged 60-plus in February.

Having enough money to enjoy a happy retirement was a top priority for 44% of Australians, ranking behind physical health at 58%.

The research found that retirees' main savings goals were certainty that their money would last for life (72%), confidence to cover health and aged care costs (65%), and maintaining their current lifestyle (53%).

Challenger Customer CEO, Mandy Mannix, said:

The key is to have the confidence and certainty to relax in those golden years, knowing your money will last and you can afford to enjoy all retirement has to offer.

Challenger sells retirement income products, primarily annuities that deliver guaranteed regular payments in retirement for life.

However, the study showed 59% of Australians did not know about lifetime income streams as a financial strategy for retirement.

Mannix said a guaranteed regular income was a powerful way to ensure a happy and secure retirement.

A 'paycheck' means retirees know their needs are taken care of giving them greater confidence to spend on their activities and hobbies that give them purpose and happiness in retirement.

Mannix added that after decades of saving, many older Australians found it difficult to switch to spending once they stopped working.

How are Aussies funding their retirement today?

The age pension is the most common way of funding retirement, with superannuation in second place, but rapidly growing.

Australians born on or after 1 January 1957 are eligible for the pension at age 67, whether retired or not.

The full pension, with both supplements, is $31,223 per year for singles and $47,070 for couples.

The pension is subject to an assets test and an income test.

If you own or earn too much, you may only qualify for a part-pension, or no pension at all.

Find out how much you can own and earn in retirement while still qualifying for the pension here.

The post Australians overestimate how much retirement income they need: study appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• The pros and cons of buying Qantas shares this month
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• Stop 'saving', start investing! How to target a $1 million ASX share portfolio

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Challenger. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX lithium shares are rising strongly on Friday after solid gains for lithium prices this week.

Four of the fastest rising 10 stocks on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) today are lithium shares.

The best performer is diversified miner Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN), up 6.1% to $62.97 per share.

Next is lithium and nickel producer IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO), up 5.7% to $9.23 per share.

The Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price is 5.3% higher on Friday at $2.18.

The market's largest pure-play lithium company, PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS), cracked a new record at $6.14 today.

The PLS Group share price is currently $6.01, up 5.3%.

Among the smaller players outside the ASX 200, Elevra Lithium Ltd (ASX: ELV) shares hit a 52-week high of $10.39.

The Elevra Lithium share price is currently $10.31, up 11.9%.

Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) shares are up 9.4% to 37 cents apiece.

Lake Resources NL (ASX: LKE) shares are 7.6% higher at 9.9 cents.

What's driving ASX lithium shares higher?

Experts say the Iran war and ensuing global oil shock are reminding us of the value of electric vehicles (EV).

The lithium carbonate price has risen 9% this week and is up 43% year to date (YTD), according to Trading Economics data.

Analysts at Trading Economics say lithium prices are rising on a bullish future outlook.

Chinese EV manufacturer BYD announced it expects to sell more EVs this year due to the oil shock.

BYD has raised its 2026 sales forecast to 1.5 million units, up from the January estimate of 1.3 million units.

The analysts said:

The surge in crude oil and product prices since the start of March supported the outlook for larger economies to favor new energy vehicles, which use batteries that take lithium as a major input.

Demand also remained supported by Chinese investment in power infrastructure, recently exemplified by the announcement of higher power storage spending.

This was combined with Beijing stating it would double national EV charging capacity to 180 gigawatts by 2027, supporting lithium-rich energy storage systems.

In the meantime, Zimbabwe suspended exports of lithium concentrates and other raw materials to stimulate refining in the country.

Oil shock a tailwind for lithium prices

Lithium prices were already rebounding from a painful two-year downward spiral before the war in Iran began.

We have seen a rapid turnaround in lithium prices from mid-2025.

Supply/demand rebalanced after a long period of oversupply last year.

We also saw the impact of the green energy transition finally bleed through to markets in 2025.

Other commodity prices joined lithium in an upward surge in 2025 as the world began building new power infrastructure at scale.

The lithium carbonate price lifted to a two-year high of about US$26,200 per tonne in January.

It endured a short, sharp fall to just below US$20,000 in early February as part of a broader metals and minerals rout.

Today, the lithium carbonate price is US$24,850, representing a 43% year-to-date gain.

Lithium spodumene is up from about US$600 per tonne in June 2025 to US$2,415 per tonne today.

The post ASX lithium shares rally as oil shock highlights EV appeal appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 6 ASX 200 shares downgraded by the experts this week
• This ASX lithium rocket is closing in on a multi-year breakout again
• 3 ASX 200 titans charging to new one-year-plus highs today
• Why the PLS share price just hit an all-time high
• Why is everyone talking about New Hope, PLS and Viva Energy shares on Thursday?

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in Core Lithium. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are 0.3% lower amid fresh hopes that the war in Iran will soon be over.

US President Donald Trump said Iran has agreed to several demands during further talks between the two nations.

Meanwhile, the US continues its blockade of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf, and Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire.

Amid this week's ongoing turmoil, brokers have reduced their ratings on six ASX 200 shares this week.

Let's take a look.

Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC)

The Lynas Rare Earths share price is $20.76, down 0.1% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 mining share has lifted 3.7%.

Morgan Stanley downgraded Lynas shares to a hold rating on Wednesday.

The broker increased its 12-month price target from $18.50 to $20.45.

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS)

The PLS Group share price is $5.98, up 4.8% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 lithium share has rocketed 28%.

Morgan Stanley downgraded this stock to a hold rating this week.

The broker shaved its 12-month price target from $5.30 to $5.25.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC)

The Westpac share price is $39.58, down 1.1% today.

Over the past month, the ASX 200 bank share has fallen 4.6%.

Morgans downgraded Westpac shares from a trim to sell rating this week.

The broker has a $34.04 target on the financial stock.

Morgans said:

WBC published a trading update ahead of its 1H26 result due for release on 5 May.

Implied revenues were weaker, costs lower, and credit impairment charges higher than our and market expectations.

We revise our rating from TRIM to SELL as total return expectations at current prices have fallen below the -10% trigger.

Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ)

The Bank of Queensland share price is $7.29, up 0.2%.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 financial share has lifted 5.3%.

Morgans downgraded the bank share to a hold rating on Wednesday.

The broker has a $7.39 target price on Bank of Queensland shares.

Morgans said:

We expect a material decline in 1H26 earnings, with recent share price strength driven by the expected capital return from the equipment finance whole-of-loan sale.

Share price strength has compressed total return potential to c.5%.

As such, we moderate our rating from ACCUMULATE to HOLD.

Seek Ltd (ASX: SEK)

The Seek share price is $15.54, up 1.1% today.

Over the past month, this ASX communications share has increased 6.4%.

Jefferies downgraded Seek shares to a hold rating this week.

The broker slashed its 12-month price target from $24.80 to $15.90.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

The Mineral Resources share price is $62.47, up 5.3% today.

The ASX 200 mining share is 13.3% higher over the past month.

Morgans lowered its rating from buy to accumulate this week.

The broker has a slightly reduced 12-month price target of $67.

Morgans said:

We have updated our 2H26 forecasts to reflect weather impacts in 3Q26, which we expect to have a modest effect on Onslow iron ore shipments, alongside minor increases to cost and capex assumptions driven by inflation in shipping and fuel.

We have also incorporated our revised LT iron ore price of US$85/t (previously US$80/t).

… we move to an ACCUMULATE rating (previously BUY) as recent share price strength has reduced valuation upside.

The post 6 ASX 200 shares downgraded by the experts this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• What assets can I own in retirement and still qualify for the Age Pension?
• ASX lithium shares rally as oil shock highlights EV appeal
• Insurance Australia Group's RAC Insurance deal faces ACCC Phase 2 review
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• Alcoa posts Q1 2026 result

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Jefferies Financial Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares closed 0.3% lower yesterday as the US and Iran continued to mull a ceasefire extension.

The market was caught off-guard by news of a major fire at one of Australia's two oil refineries yesterday.

This will undoubtedly add pressure to the fuel supply chain and potentially add to inflation and the chances of higher interest rates.

Amid the growing global fuel crisis, brokers have indicated continuing confidence in several ASX 200 shares.

These companies received renewed buy ratings this week.

Let's review.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

The Rio Tinto share price closed at $172.60 on Thursday, down 0.7%.

Over the past month, the ASX mining giant has lifted 11.6%.

Macquarie reiterated its buy rating on Rio Tinto stock this week.

The broker raised its 12-month price target from $168 to $183.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ)

The ANZ share price finished the session at $37.73, down 1.3%.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 bank share has edged 0.75% higher.

Morgan Stanley maintained its buy rating on ANZ shares this week.

But the broker shaved its 12-month price target from $37.80 to $37.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

The Xero share price closed at $81.86 yesterday, up a whopping 9%.

In an apparent rebound for the entire tech sector, Xero shares have risen 16.1% since 30 March.

UBS reiterated its buy rating on Xero shares this week.

However, the broker slashed its 12-month target from $174 to $127.

Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN)

The Paladin Energy share price closed at $14.15, up 2.6% on Thursday.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 uranium share has rocketed 27.6%.

Morgan Stanley kept its buy rating in place with a $14.45 price target this week.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32)

The South32 share price finished yesterday's trading day at $4.62, down 0.2%.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 mining share has lifted 11.1%.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its buy recommendation this week.

The broker also lifted its share price target from $4.70 to $5.

Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX: ILU)

The Iluka Resources share price closed at $7.77, up 4%.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 mineral sands share has ripped 20.7%.

Morgan Stanley maintained a buy rating and raised its target from $6.70 to $7.90.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

Zip was the third-strongest performer within the ASX 200 yesterday.

The Zip share price ripped 11.4% higher to $2.05 ahead of its quarterly update today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 financial share has soared 28.1%.

Citi reiterated its buy rating on the buy now, pay later provider this week.

The broker has a $2.60 price target on Zip shares.

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL)

The Coles share price closed at $22.70, up 0.2%, yesterday.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 consumer staples share has lifted 9%.

Jefferies reiterated its buy rating this week.

The broker also raised its share price target on Coles from $23.50 to $25.50.

The post ASX 200 shares with renewed buy ratings this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• 3 ASX 200 stocks leaping higher in this week's slumping market

Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in Zip Co. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Jefferies Financial Group, Macquarie Group, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are 0.4% lower on Thursday after an explosion and fire at the Geelong oil refinery.

Australia has just two oil refineries, both of which have been running full tilt since the Iran war began.

The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has created a significant energy shock, with oil and gas prices soaring.

This has sparked fears of higher inflation and further increases in interest rates in Australia.

Meanwhile, some ASX 200 shares have attracted upgrades from the experts this week.

Let's take a look.

Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC)

The Whitehaven share price is $8.42, down 0.9% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 coal share has fallen 9%.

Morgan Stanley upgraded Whitehaven shares to a buy rating today.

But the broker shaved its 12-month price target from $9.80 to $9.75.

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

The Evolution share price is $13.89, down 3.9%.

Over the past month, the ASX 200 gold mining share has lifted 6%.

Morgans upgraded Evolution shares from hold to accumulate yesterday.

However, the broker reduced its 12-month target from $17.16 to $16.10.

Morgans said:

We upgrade to an ACCUMULATE (from HOLD) following recent weakness across the gold sector which we believe has uncovered value in a high-quality name, despite a strong share price reaction post the result.

The gold price fell 21% during the first three weeks of the Iran war.

The A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

The A2 Milk share price is $7.56, down 2%.

Over the past month, the ASX 200 consumer staples share has tumbled 20%.

Morgans upgraded A2 Milk shares from a hold rating to accumulate on Monday.

However, the broker lowered its share price target from $9.50 to $8.70.

This followed a trading update from A2 Milk.

Morgans said:

A2M's FY26 earnings downgrade was due to factors largely out of its own control, being higher freight/supply chain costs associated with the conflict in the Middle East and delays getting product released (enhanced testing and customs clearance) following peer recalls.

Importantly, the demand for its products is strong.

Guidance has been revised due to supply constraints (lower sales and product mix issues dilute margins) and higher costs.

In our view, while some of the issues are one-off in nature, increased costs associated with the conflict are likely to continue into FY27.

Despite this, we still expect strong growth in FY27 given A2 Pokeno is expected to break even and new China label (CL) IF products will be launched.

Ingenia Communities Group (ASX: INA)

The Ingenia Communities share price is $4.11, up 1.1%.

Over the past month, the ASX 200 property share has eased 0.4%.

UBS upgraded Ingenia shares to a buy rating today.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $4.60.

The post 4 ASX 200 shares newly upgraded this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) tech shares are 6.3% higher after the 11th consecutive session of gains for US tech stocks overnight.

The Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) lifted 1.59% to a new record high last night.

ASX 200 tech shares have risen 16.2% over the past 11 trading sessions, but our tech index has fluctuated over the period.

Meanwhile, the NASDAQ has increased in a straight line by 15.5%, one day after another, since 30 March.

That's its best run since December 2023.

Could this mean an end to the tech wreck?

ASX 200 tech shares began a downward spiral in September last year.

Tech investors began worrying about high stock valuations and large-scale artificial intelligence (AI) capex spending.

Then this year, a series of updates to Anthropic's AI assistant, Claude, stoked fears of major disruption for software-as-a-service (SaaS) providers.

If agentic AI and generative tools like Claude can custom-write software, why would companies subscribe to proprietary SaaS products?

These fears were especially felt in Australia given four of the six biggest ASX 200 tech shares by market capitalisation are SaaS providers.

Some experts labelled it a 'SaaSpocalypse' moment, while others insisted the highest quality tech companies would ride it out.

The cumulative impact: the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) fell 48% between 29 August and 30 March.

Here comes the rebound

The biggest ASX 200 tech share by market cap is SaaS logistics management platform provider, WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC).

The Wisetech share price is $43.63, up 9.2% today and up 19.5% over the past 11 trading sessions.

Next is accounting services provider Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO).

The Xero share price is $80.70, up 7.5% on Thursday and up 14.5% since 30 March.

Enterprise resource planning provider TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE) is also higher today.

TechnologyOne shares are $30.49, up 5.8% today and up 15.2% over the 11 trading sessions.

The Nextdc Ltd (ASX: NXT) share price is 4.2% higher at $13.96, and it's up 23.8% since 30 March.

The share price of family location app provider Life360 Inc (ASX: 360) is $21.15, up 11.6% today and up 16.6% since 30 March.

Shares in hotel bookings management platform provider Siteminder Ltd (ASX: SDR) are up 8.3% to $3.35 today.

Siteminder shares have surged 23.4% since 30 March.

Technology is the strongest of the 11 ASX 200 market sectors today.

Meanwhile, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is in the red, down 0.3% to 8,952.6 points.

The post Is the ASX 200 tech wreck over amid a 6% rise in shares today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Which ASX 200 tech stock has Bell Potter just downgraded?
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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Life360, SiteMinder, Technology One, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Life360, SiteMinder, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) experienced a partial rebound after the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed steady unemployment at 4.3% today.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held last month amid an 18,000 increase in the number of people employed.

The number of unemployed people fell by 4,000, while the participation rate dropped 0.1% to 66.8%.

Sean Crick, ABS head of labour statistics, said:

Growth in employment was driven by full-time workers, which rose by 53,000 people in March.

This was partly offset by a fall in part-time employment of 35,000 people.

Full-time employment increased by 29,000 for men and 24,000 for women.

Part-time employment fell by 19,000 for men and 16,000 for women.

ASX 200 rebounds then resumes downward trend

The ASX 200's partial rebound after the jobs data was released at 11.30am was short-lived.

The local bourse has been in the red all day as the US and Iran consider an extension to their two-week ceasefire.

The market is also absorbing the news of a major fire at one of Australia's two oil refineries today.

The ASX 200 is currently down 0.21% to 8,960.1 points.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar has lifted to 71.9 US cents, its highest level in four years.

The increase comes as the market ascribes a 67% chance of an interest rate rise next month.

The Reserve Bank board meets on 4-5 May.

As of yesterday, the market had a 67% expectation of a rate rise, up from 62% a week ago.

Higher interest rates tend to support the AUD against the USD because they increase returns on Australian assets relative to US assets.

RBA not confident interest rates are high enough

Analysts at Trading Economics said the jobs data reinforced the Reserve Bank's view that the labour market remains relatively tight.

The jobs market has demonstrated resilience despite business and consumer confidence tanking due to the global fuel crisis.

Earlier this week, Deputy Reserve Bank Governor, Andrew Hauser, said inflation was already rising before the Iran war, and the fuel crisis was an additional shock, adding more pressure to businesses.

Hauser said:

The rates will have to go to a level that bring inflation back to target … And if that means them going higher, it means them going higher.

I wouldn't say we have high confidence that we've yet set interest rates at the right level…

Hauser said many Australian companies had found it difficult to raise their prices, and the fuel crisis may help them get increases through.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) Chief Economist Luci Ellis, a former RBA Assistant Governor, expects three more interest rate rises.

This would take the cash rate to 4.85%.

A tight jobs market can contribute to resurgent inflation because people are willing to spend when they feel secure in their jobs.

The post Interest rate rise expectations firm on jobs data as Aussie dollar hits 4-year high appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• What assets can I own in retirement and still qualify for the Age Pension?
• 6 ASX 200 shares downgraded by the experts this week
• Insurance Australia Group's RAC Insurance deal faces ACCC Phase 2 review
• Paladin Energy hikes FY2026 outlook after Langer Heinrich ramp-up
• Alcoa posts Q1 2026 result

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV) is up 1.03% to $64.65 per unit on Tuesday.

IVV ETF has been a popular choice among investors seeking exposure to the roaring US stock market over the past three years.

IVV is now the third largest ASX ETF out of more than 400 on the market, with more than $11.67 billion invested in it.

However, last month, IVV ETF recorded the highest investment outflows, indicating an exodus amid the Iran war.

Aussie investors took $461 million out of the exchange-traded fund (ETF) in March, based on ASX data analysed by Betashares.

However, investors have not given up on US shares, with $232 million flowing into IVV ETF's currency-hedged counterpart in March.

That's the iShares S&P 500 AUD Hedged ETF (ASX: IHVV), which is up 1.62% to $62.68 per unit today.

This indicates investors still want US exposure but are mindful of the weaker USD against the stronger AUD today.

Stronger Aussie dollar weakens IVV ETF returns

The Australian dollar has risen almost 20% from just over 60 US cents 12 months ago to a three-year high of 70.8 US cents today.

As James Gruber, Equity Market Strategist at CommSec, explains:

When the Australian dollar strengthens, your international ETF returns shrink, and if the Australian dollar weakens, your returns improve.

To put that into perspective: last year, the S&P 500 delivered total returns of 17.88%, but IVV ETF investors received just 10.75%.

The US dollar has weakened due to expectations of interest rate cuts, concerns over the impact of tariffs, and geopolitical uncertainty.

Meanwhile, the AUD has strengthened given Australia has entered a tightening rate cycle, with two rate hikes so far in 2026.

There is also strong demand for our commodities, which foreign buyers purchase with Australian dollars, amid a new mining boom.

Investors prefer IHVV over IVV today because hedged ETFs reduce the impact of currency movements on investments. 

Gruber explained:

For example, you may invest in an ETF that tracks the S&P 500 index. If it is unhedged and if the Australian dollar strengthens after you buy it, your returns in AUD may drop, even if the underlying investments do well in their home currency. 

Conversely, if the Australian dollar declines, the value of an unhedged ETF may rise in AUD terms, assuming the underlying asset holds or increases in value.

Gruber points out that currency-hedged ETFs typically cost more than unhedged ETFs.

Case in point: IHVV has management fee of 0.1% while IVV has a fee of 0.03%.

US shares vs. ASX 200 in 2026

The S&P 500 has substantially outperformed the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) over the past three years.

But change is afoot this year.

So far in 2026, the S&P 500 has lifted 0.6% while ASX 200 shares have increased 2.9%.

Gruber points out that a key difference between the two benchmark indices is their exposure to technology companies.

That's significant because a global tech wreck is underway, as investors fret over the impact of artificial intelligence (AI).

Illustrating the difference, the IVV ETF is 34% tech stocks, while the ASX 200 has just a 3% exposure to technology.

Gruber said:

… the S&P 500 leans heavily on technology stocks. 

If you add the likes of Amazon and Tesla – classified as consumer discretionary stocks in the S&P – and Meta and Alphabet – included in the communications sector – to the technology sector, then tech accounts for more than 40% of the S&P 500 index. 

The post Why ASX investors dumped IVV ETF last month appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Has the ASX 200 or S&P 500 been a better investment this year?

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in iShares S&p;P 500 Aud Hedged ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Tesla, and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) shares are down 0.1% to $12.36 on Tuesday, while the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 0.3%.

The Origin Energy share price is up 9% in the year to date and up 22.5% over the past 12 months.

Origin Energy produces and sells natural gas and electricity to wholesale and retail customers in Australia and overseas.

This ASX 200 utilities stock has fluctuated in price over the past year.

Origin Energy shares traded at a 52-week low of $9.96 in May 2025 and lifted to an annual high of $13.13 in August 2025.

By early 2026, the stock had experienced a gradual decline back into the high $10 range before regaining some momentum.

During earnings season in February, Origin Energy reported a substantial fall in profit for 1H FY26 compared to 1H FY25.

Statutory profit was $557 million in 1H FY26, down from $1,017 million in 1H FY25.

Underlying profit was $593 million, down from $924 million in 1H FY25.

Origin Energy shares: 3 views

Expert views on this ASX 200 utilities stock are currently mixed.

Jed Richards from Shaw and Partners is buy-rated on Origin shares.

Richards likes the company's attractive income profile and leveraged exposure to Australia's changing energy market.

He commented on The Bull this week:

The company benefits from scale in electricity generation and retailing, while its yield remains appealing in a market still sensitive to income certainty.

That said, regulatory risk and energy price volatility remain key risks.

We see Origin as well placed to balance defensive income characteristics with longer term opportunities tied to the domestic energy transition.

Ord Minnett thinks investors in Origin Energy shares should hang on to them for now.

After reviewing Origin's 1H FY26 report, the broker said:

… we remain cautious on Origin given the headwinds we see – increased capital expenditure to maintain APLNG production, ongoing bad debt problems at Octopus, weaker wholesale electricity pricing, and a likely fall in spot LNG prices – and remain at Hold.

The broker noted that Origin had exceeded its expectations for December-quarter LNG production and revenue, and average realised price.

However, Ord Minnett is concerned about future performance:

The stronger realised pricing in the quarter was likely driven by sales into the spot LNG market, in our view, and raises a question over whether the performance can be repeated in coming quarters considering weak domestic gas demand.

Volumes in Origin's electricity and gas volumes in its energy markets division were weak, with retail volumes stable but business demand falling.

Last week, Ord Minnett reiterated its hold rating but raised its 12-month price target from $11 to $11.10.

Morgan Stanley has a similar price target to Ord Minnett but a sell rating on the stock.

Last week, Morgan Stanley analyst Richard Koh reiterated his sell rating on Origin Energy shares.

Koh also shaved his 12-month price target down from $11.11 to $11.07.

The post Origin Energy shares: Experts argue the case to buy, hold, and sell appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Buy, hold, sell: AGL, Origin Energy, and Woodside shares
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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Betashares strategist, Tom Wickenden, says the Iran war is directly impacting ASX ETF investment activity today.

In a new report, Wickenden says the longer-term impact of the Iran war will centre around global energy self-sufficiency.

Investors have responded by ploughing funds into 5 ASX ETF thematics.

Let's take a look.

Energy producers

An example is the Global Energy Companies Currency Hedged ETF (ASX: FUEL), which is 30% higher in the year to date (YTD).

Another example is the commodity-price-based energy ETF, Betashares Crude Oil Index Currency Hedged Complex ETF (ASX: OOO).

OOO ETF was the best performer among the more than 400 ASX ETFs on the market last month, returning 55% due to the global oil shock.

Uranium

Betashares offers investors the Global Uranium ETF (ASX: URNM), which is up 15% in the YTD.

The uranium arena is volatile, however, James Gerrish from Market Partners says small modular reactors are the way of the future.

In a recent Money Matters newsletter, Gerrish said:

Nuclear power accounts for ~10% of global electricity generation today with demand set to rise substantially over the coming years as AI usage ratchets up.

With the uranium market transitioning into a structural tightening phase, and a high probability of deficit emerging later this decade, the URNM ETF should push higher in the coming years.

Defence

Vaneck Global Defence ETF (ASX: DFND) is one of the most popular defence ETFs on the market today.

DFND ETF has risen 34% over the past 12 months amid NATO committing to a substantial lift in defence spending at America's urging.

Critical minerals

Australia's last mining boom, from the early 2000s through to 2013, was mainly driven by iron ore and coal exports to China.

Experts say the next one already underway is being driven by critical minerals tied to electrification, power generation, and energy security.

They include copper, uranium, lithium, rare earths, and silver.

Betashares Energy Transition Metals ETF (ASX: XMET) was among the 6 best-performing international shares-based ASX ETFs last year.

XMET ETF delivered a 100% return while Global X Green Metal Miners ETF (ASX: GMTL) returned a similarly impressive 81%.

Agricultural commodities

The oil shock has sparked concern over the global supply of fertiliser, which is crucial for crop production.

Natural gas is a key feedstock for nitrogen-based fertilisers like ammonia and urea.

This means higher oil and gas prices can significantly increase fertiliser costs.

Betashares offers the Global Agriculture Companies Currency Hedged ETF (ASX: FOOD), which has risen 41% over the past year.

The post 5 thematics driving ASX ETF investment today: expert appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in Vaneck Global Defence Etf. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares fell 7.8% during the first month of the Iran war and the ensuing oil shock.

Rising oil and gas prices rattled investors, raising concerns about the impact on the businesses they were invested in.

We are starting to see that impact, with Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) doubling its jet fuel cost estimates for 2H FY26 today.

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) chair Dr Andrew Forrest has also revealed they paid up to double for emergency fuel supplies last month.

With all this in mind, it's interesting to look at how Aussie investors repositioned their ASX ETF portfolios as the conflict unfolded.

Aussies have $329 billion invested in ASX ETFs, and last month they ploughed an additional $5.6 billion into their favoured funds.

That makes March the third-highest month for net inflows ever. It seems the volatility caused by the war did not dampen their interest.

A new report from Betashares, which shows the top 10 ASX ETFs for inflows and outflows last month, reveals some interesting trends.

Let's take a look.

Top 10 ASX ETFs for inflows last month

Top 10 ETFs for outflows

How ASX ETFs investors repositioned last month

The VAS ETF is the most popular Australian shares ETF on the market, so it's no surprise to see it take out the top spot.

VGS is the most popular international shares ETF, so it's routine to see it close to the top as well.

The presence of IHVV in the top inflows list, and its unhedged counterpart IVV ETF in the top outflows, shows investors are mindful of currency changes over the past 12 months.

The Australian dollar has risen from just over 60 US cents 12 months ago to a three-year high of 70.8 US cents today.

As James Gruber, Equity Market Strategist at CommSec, points out:

When the Australian dollar strengthens, your international ETF returns shrink, and if the Australian dollar weakens, your returns improve.

Outflows from QAU ETF reflect profit-taking amid a 21% decline in the gold price over the first three weeks of March.

Sprott Managing Partner, Paul Wong, said investors need not be worried though.

Wong added:

Gold's March drop reflects a liquidity crunch, not a breakdown in its long-term role. 

As financial stress builds, gold is likely to reassert itself as a key monetary anchor.

Another interesting trend is the inflows into non-US international ETFs, reflecting the poorer performance of US markets this year.

In the year to date, the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) has lifted just 0.6% compared to a 3% bump for the ASX 200.

The post How ASX ETF investors repositioned as the Iran war shook markets appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• 3 amazing ASX ETFs that are beginner-friendly

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in Vanguard International Equity Index Funds – Vanguard Ftse All-World ex-US ETF, Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF, and iShares S&P 500 Aud Hedged ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Vanguard International Equity Index Funds – Vanguard Ftse All-World ex-US ETF and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF, Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF, and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX 200 financial shares led the market during the short trading week, rising 6.53%, with materials not far behind with a 6.33% gain.

The market was closed on Monday as Australians celebrated Easter.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) ripped 4.41% to 8,960.6 points over the four trading days.

The remarkable recovery followed news of a two-week ceasefire deal between the US and Iran.

ASX investors hope this will pave the way toward an end to the war in Iran.

Investors continued to buy the dip last week following the steep sell-off over the first three weeks of March.

ASX 200 shares fell 9.1% between 2 March and 23 March before a rebound began, with the index now up 7.1% since then.

James Gerrish from Shaw and Partners says "war fear" in the market is fading but "we're not out of the woods yet".

Businesses across multiple sectors are still assessing the impact of the oil shock, which is likely to reverberate for months to come.

Let's recap the week.

Financial shares led the ASX sectors last week

The ASX 200 financial sector incorporates bank shares, insurers, fund managers, financial services providers, and more.

Let's take a look at how some of these ASX financial stocks performed last week.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price rose 5.98% to close at $183.38 on Friday.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares lifted 6.31% to $38.84.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares ascended 6.87% to $42.77.

The National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) share price spiked 9.06% to $45.36.

The Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) share price soared 9.3% to finish the week at $225.

Among the ASX 200 investment companies and fund managers, GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG) shares fell 0.28% to $1.78.

Magellan Financial Group Ltd (ASX: MFG) shares fell 0.84% to $9.45 amid a shareholder vote on the Barrenjoey merger on Friday.

Magellan announced it had received more than 90% approval from shareholders.

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co Ltd (ASX: SOL) shares lifted 3.92% to $42.98.

Among the financial services providers, AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) shares lifted 6.06% to $1.37.

The Challenger Ltd (ASX: CGF) share price lost 2.6% to close at $8.07 on Friday.

ASX 200 buy now, pay later share Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) ripped 16.5% to $1.85.

Among the insurers, Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) shares fell 1.03% to $7.21.

Medibank Private Ltd (ASX: MPL) shares lifted 1.92% to $4.52.

The QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) share price ascended 4.13% to $22.46.

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the four trading days:

Looking for inspiration after the March sell-off?

Check out these 7 ASX 200 shares just upgraded to strong buy consensus ratings after last month's turmoil.

The post ASX 200 shares rip with financials leading a remarkable recovery last week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in Magellan Financial Group and Zip Co. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Challenger and Gqg Partners. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX All Ords Index (ASX: XAO) shares fell 8% in March due to the war in Iran and skyrocketing oil and gas prices.

Energy prices and supply chain networks impact almost all corners of the global economy.

So it wasn't surprising to see a broad market sell-off over the first three weeks of March as multiple industries assessed the damage.

The sell-off now leaves room for investors to buy the dip.

A two-week ceasefire is underway amid hopes of a long-term deal between the US and Iran soon.

Brokers have reviewed their ratings after many shares fell, and they see good opportunities across a number of industries.

Here are some of the ASX All Ords shares elevated to strong buy consensus ratings after last month's turmoil.

6 ASX All Ords shares newly upgraded to strong buy ratings

These ASX shares have just been upgraded to strong buy consensus ratings among analysts on the CommSec platform.

A consensus rating represents the average rating among analysts.

Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd (ASX: KCN)

The Kingsgate Consolidated share price fell 38% in March alongside a big fall in the gold price.

In April so far, the ASX All Ords gold share is up 19% to $5.22 at yesterday's close.

MA Financial is among the brokers that have upgraded Kingsgate shares.

The broker also lifted its 12-month share price target from $6.85 to $6.95.

Pinnacle Investment Management Group Ltd (ASX: PNI)

The Pinnacle Investment Management share price fell 10% in March.

This month, the ASX All Ords financial shares is up 4% to $14.63.

Canaccord Genuity is buy-rated on Pinnacle shares with a $24.53 target.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

The Zip share price fell 19% in March.

This month, the ASX All Ords financial share is up 19% to $1.84.

Blackwattle holds Zip shares in its Small Cap Quality Fund.

Portfolio managers Robert Hawkesford and Daniel Broeren describe Zip as 'one of the most compelling value opportunities on the ASX'.

WA1 Resources Ltd (ASX: WA1)

The WA1 Resources share price fell 20% in March.

This month, the ASX All Ords copper share is up 9% to $15.19.

Canaccord Genuity is buy-rated on WA1 Resources shares with a $32 target.

Macquarie Technology Group Ltd (ASX: MAQ)

The Macquarie Technology share price fell 12% in March.

In April so far, the ASX All Ords tech share is up 12% to $66.60.

Canaccord Genuity is also buy-rated on this stock with a $95 target.

Santana Minerals Ltd (ASX: SMI)

The Santana Minerals share price fell 27% in March.

This month, the ASX All Ords gold share is up 2% to 68 cents.

Shaw & Partners has a buy rating and a $2.15 target on Santana Minerals shares.

Further reading

Check out 7 ASX 200 shares just upgraded to strong buy ratings, too.

The post 6 ASX All Ords shares elevated to strong buy status after March sell-off appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in Zip Co. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Pinnacle Investment Management Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Pinnacle Investment Management Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Ma Financial Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Morgans has just upgraded its rating on ASX healthcare share Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG) due to ongoing share price weakness.

The Sigma Healthcare share price is $2.73 on Friday, up 0.9% today but down 7.3% in the year to date (YTD).

Sigma Healthcare merged with Chemist Warehouse last year, and also owns other pharmacy chains, Amcal and Discount Drug Stores.

The blockbuster merger, completed in February 2025, sent the Sigma Healthcare share price to a multi-decade high of $3.28 by June.

The merged group now supports more than 880 franchised pharmacies and supplies more than 3,500 chemists across Australia. 

It has operations in New Zealand, Ireland, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as well.

Market exuberance around the deal began to wear off in the second half of last year.

The Sigma share price has fallen 17% since its peak as the broader healthcare sector also encountered multiple headwinds.

Sigma Healthcare shares touched a 15-month low of $2.58 apiece last month.

Morgans 'prescribing long term growth'

In a new note released yesterday, Morgans said ongoing share price weakness had prompted it to upgrade the ASX healthcare share.

Morgans titled its note 'prescribing long term growth' and moved its rating up from accumulate to buy.

The broker kept its 12-month share price target at $3.36.

Morgans said it is forecasting about 20% growth in earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) over the next few years.

The broker said it expects strong like-for-like sales growth and new stores to be rolled out domestically and internationally.

It also anticipates operating efficiencies and about $100 million per annum in synergies by FY29.

The broker commented:

Given the share price weakness, we have upgraded our recommendation to BUY (from ACCUMULATE) with an unchanged target price of $3.36 and 26% upside.

Morgans previously described Sigma Healthcare's 1H FY26 report as "solid" and in line with consensus expectations.

What do other experts think?

Ord Minnett and Jefferies also upgraded Sigma Healthcare shares to a buy rating over the past few weeks.

Ord Minnett lowered its 12-month target from $3.40 to $3.30, while Jefferies has a target of $3.05.

Meanwhile, RBC Capital recently initiated coverage on the ASX healthcare share with a hold rating and a $2.50 target.

Macquarie also has a hold rating and lifted its share price target from $3 to $3.20 early last month.

Jarden also upgraded Sigma Healthcare shares to a buy rating in late February, with a $3.60 price target.

The post Broker sees 26% upside in ASX healthcare share behind Chemist Warehouse appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Jefferies Financial Group and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Magellan Financial Group Ltd (ASX: MFG) share price is $9.43, up 1%, as the market awaits news on the Barrenjoey merger vote.

Magellan held an extraordinary meeting this morning for shareholders to vote on the proposed merger with Barrenjoey Capital Partners.

Ahead of the meeting, Magellan revealed that 91% of proxy votes received had approved the merger.

Magellan has about 185.7 million shares on issue, and received 101.9 million proxy votes in favour of the deal.

The Magellan board unanimously recommends the merger.

Magellan is yet to announce the formal outcome from today's meeting, but the result appears effectively a fait accompli.

The deal values Barrenjoey, an investment bank that launched only six years ago, at $1.616 billion on a 100% basis.

A new era for Magellan

Magellan was an early backer of Barrenjoey, which was founded by former UBS bankers Matthew Grounds and Guy Fowler OAM in 2020.

Barrenjoey's current and founding CEO, Brian Benari, was previously the CEO of Challenger Ltd (ASX: CGF).

Magellan conducted a $130 million institutional capital raise and a $20 million share purchase plan (SPP) at $8.45 per share to help fund the deal.

The Lowy family, founder of the Westfield empire, participated in the institutional raise, investing just over $79 million for 5.1% stake.

The SPP was vastly oversubscribed but had a participation rate of only 17% of shareholders.

Magellan said it received $129.4 million worth of valid SPP applications from 5,195 shareholders.

Magellan employed a savage scale-back that disappointed many investors, and the new shares began trading last Thursday.

Long-suffering retail investors are no doubt hoping that the merger will represent a turnaround for Magellan after five hard years.

Magellan share price slump

The Magellan share price has fallen 78% over five years.

The investment manager began its downhill slide in 2021.

That year, Magellan lost a major client worth 12% of its annual revenue, and chief stock picker and co-founder, Hamish Douglass, resigned.

Funds under management have declined from $113 billion in July 2021, when Magellan shares were worth about $50, to $38 billion today.

At the EGM, Magellan chair Andrew Formica said:

MFG has been on a deliberate and considered journey over recent years.

While we remain firmly committed to our core investment management business, we have also been focused on evolving MFG into a more diversified financial services group.

This strategy has been guided by a clear objective: to build a business that is more resilient, less dependent on any single revenue stream, and better positioned to generate sustainable returns through market cycles.

Our partnership with Barrenjoey has been central to this evolution.

Barrenjoey reported $522 million in revenue and an adjusted NPATA of $108 million for CY25.

Magellan released a presentation before the meeting this morning.

The post Why is the Magellan share price rising today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in Magellan Financial Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Challenger. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares fell 7.8% in March after the US and Israel attacked Iran, triggering a global oil shock.

Oil and gas prices soared while gold and other metals crumbled, impacting ASX 200 shares in different ways.

Shares in the energy sector surged 18.5% while the materials sector, which includes Australia's biggest miners, crumbled 14.1%.

Amid the upheaval for share prices, brokers reviewed their ratings and 12-month targets on a bunch of ASX stocks.

Here are some of the ASX 200 shares elevated to strong buy consensus status after last month's turmoil.

7 ASX 200 shares newly elevated to strong buy ratings

These ASX shares have just been upgraded to strong buy consensus ratings on the CommSec platform.

A consensus rating represents the average rating among analysts.

Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD)

The Genesis Minerals share price dropped 20.7% in March alongside a steep fall in the gold price.

So far this month, the ASX 200 gold mining share is up 10.9% to $6.53 at yesterday's close.

MA Financial is among the brokers that have upgraded Genesis Minerals to a buy rating.

The broker has lifted its 12-month price target from $8.05 to $8.40.

Orica Ltd (ASX: ORI)

The Orica share price descended 17.9% in March.

So far this month, the ASX materials share is up 6.7% to $21.40.

Jefferies has reiterated its buy recommendation, but reduced its price target from $25.73 to $24.04.

Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN)

The Qantas share price fell 15.9% in March.

So far in April, the ASX 200 airline share has rebounded 8.6% to $9.09.

Jefferies has reiterated its buy rating with a price target of $12.80.

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC)

The WiseTech Global share price declined 20% in March.

So far in April, the market's largest ASX 200 tech share is up just 1.6% to $38.62.

Morgan Stanley is buy-rated on Wisetech but has slashed its target from $100 to $70.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

The Xero share price descended 9.7% in March.

The tech share has fallen a further 2.3% in April to $73.41 at yesterday's close.

Morgan Stanley has reiterated its buy recommendation with a $130 target.

Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL)

The Yancoal share price skyrocketed 41.5% in March, as power plants switched from gas to coal.

So far this month, the ASX 200 coal share has declined 10.3%.

Huatai Securities is buy-rated on Yancoal with a $14.40 share price target.

CAR Group Ltd (ASX: CAR)

The CAR Group share price fell 14% in March.

In April, the ASX 200 retail share is up 2.7% to $23.41.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its buy recommendation last week.

However, the broker reduced its 12-month target from $38 to $32.

The post 7 ASX 200 shares just upgraded to strong buy ratings appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CAR Group Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX 200 mining shares were the worst hit by the Iran war last month.

The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) tumbled 21% between 27 February and 23 March before a sharp recovery began.

Since then, materials shares have jumped 18% as investors refocus on the positive long-term outlook for Australian mining.

Meantime on The Bull this week, experts have revealed their ratings on three ASX 200 mining shares.

Let's take a look.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

The BHP share price closed at $54.56 on Thursday, up 0.06%.

The market's largest ASX 200 mining share is 59% higher over 12 months.

However, strong momentum was not enough to keep BHP shares immune from the Iran war sell-off.

The BHP share price dropped from a record high of $59.39 on 3 March to a low of $46.06 on 23 March.

With BHP stock now rebounding, Michael Gable from Fairmont Equities gives it a hold rating.

The commodities bull market has only just started, in my view.

As a global mining giant, BHP generally appeals to investors looking to increase exposure in the resources sector.

BHP's share price has retreated to a major support level since the start of the war in Iran.

I'm confident the stock should bounce from these levels.

BHP's diversification makes it a safer bet for investors to ride the commodities bull market.

Capstone Copper Corp CDI (ASX: CSC)

Capstone Copper shares finished yesterday's session at $12.10, down 2.81%.

The ASX 200 copper mining share has almost doubled over the past 12 months, up 97%.

Mitch Belichovski from Morgans Financial has a buy rating on Capstone Copper shares.

Belichovski said:

CSC is one of a limited number of pure play copper names listed on the ASX.

Copper production growth differentiates CSC from its peers.

Growth is driven by a combination of near term and longer dated brownfield and greenfield projects, alongside a declining cost profile.

CSC was recently trading on a modest price-earnings ratio in 2026 and offers good value at these price levels.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32)

The South32 share price closed at $4.58 yesterday, up 0.22%.

Mark Elzayed from Investor Pulse has a hold rating on South32 shares.

He said South32 was navigating a complex portfolio transition along with operational challenges.

He noted that the company put an aluminium smelter in Mozambique into care and maintenance last month.

However, Elzayed said South32's 1H FY26 results were encouraging.

Underlying EBITDA of $US1.1 billion was up 9 per cent on the prior corresponding period.

Underlying earnings of $US435 million grew 16 per cent, supported by higher base and precious metals prices.

Copper and zinc production remained strong, highlighted by a 28 per cent increase in underground ore reserves at Cannington.

The ASX 200 mining share has soared 43% over six months and is 28% higher in the year to date.

He concluded:

From a valuation and technical standpoint, we see S32 as fairly valued following a strong rally earlier this year.

The stock is consolidating, with technical indicators appearing neutral, and we view it as a wait and see opportunity.

The post Buy, hold, or sell? South32, Capstone Copper, and BHP shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX 200 energy shares are leading the market after Israel hit Lebanon again, and the Strait of Hormuz remains at a standstill.

This follows a substantial sell-off for ASX 200 energy shares yesterday.

On Wednesday, the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) dropped 7.3% after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.

The rest of the market celebrated the news, with the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) finishing the session 2.8% higher.

Today, we've seen a reversal of trends.

ASX 200 energy shares are up 2.4% while the ASX 200 is down 0.05%.

Oil prices have also rebounded today after a sharp fall yesterday.

Brent Crude is currently up 2.7% to US$97.35 per barrel.

Why are ASX 200 energy shares leading the market today?

There is uncertainty in the market as investors wonder how fresh Israeli strikes on Lebanon will impact the ceasefire.

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely obstructed.

As part of the ceasefire deal, Iran agreed to allow safe passage of shipping through the Strait, coordinated by its armed forces.

On Thursday, Trading Economics analysts said:

Iranian media reported that oil tanker traffic through the strait had been suspended following the attacks, amid disputes between Tehran and the American-Israeli side over whether the truce extends to Lebanon.

A senior Iranian official also stated that three provisions of the ceasefire agreement have already been breached.

Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance said there are indications the strait may begin reopening as he leads a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this weekend.

The Strait of Hormuz is not technically closed.

However, shipping companies have chosen not to sail through it for fear of Iranian attacks and a lack of insurance coverage.

About 20% of global crude oil and gas is shipped via the Strait.

The war has triggered the worst oil shock since the 1970s.

ASX 200 energy shares whipsaw on ceasefire tensions

Let's take a look at what's happened with the market's largest ASX 200 energy shares over the past two days.

On Wednesday, the Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) share price plummeted 10.4% to close at $32.06.

Today, Woodside shares have regained 3.8% to $33.29, at the time of writing.

Yesterday, the Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) share price fell 4.6% to $7.76. Today, Santos shares are 2.5% higher at $7.95.

The Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) share price dropped 13.4% to $1.90 on Wednesday.

Today, Karoon Energy shares are $1.98, up 4.3%.

Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) shares fell 4.2% yesterday to $32.12, but today they're up 3.6% to $33.26.

The Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX: VEA) share price tanked 9.1% to $2.42 yesterday.

Today, Viva Energy shares are $2.49 apiece, up 2.7%.

ASX 200 coal share Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL) fell 9.8% to $7.49 on Wednesday.

Today, Yancoal shares are in the red again, down 0.1% to $7.48.

The New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC) share price dropped 9.6% to $5.30 yesterday.

On Thursday, New Hope shares are slightly higher, up 0.2% to $5.31.

The post ASX 200 energy shares whipsaw amid fragile ceasefire appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The gold price tumbled from US$5,390.45 per ounce on 2 March to US$4,263.55 on 23 March before it turned around.

On Thursday, gold is currently trading at US$4,714 per ounce.

If gold is a safe-haven asset, meaning investors typically flock to it in times of strife, why did the war cause a 21% plunge in price?

Specialist global gold and precious metals fund manager, Sprott, provides some insights.

Why the gold price tanked when the Iran war began

Sprott Managing Partner, Paul Wong, said gold's strong pull back over the first three weeks of March surprised investors.

In an article, the market strategist said:

The decline has occurred against a backdrop that, under traditional frameworks, should have been supportive: elevated geopolitical risk, a major energy shock, rising volatility across asset classes and growing concerns about global growth.

Yet gold has fallen sharply.

Wong explained that the sell-off reflected a rush to liquidity, not a weakening in the drivers of gold's bull run.

We believe the move reflects a broad liquidity-driven selling event, driven by macro reserve-flow dynamics and forced deleveraging across investment portfolios.

In short, gold is being sold because liquidity is being raised, not because its role as a strategic asset has diminished.

Central banks have been diversifying their reserves away from the US dollar and into gold since 2022.

The catalyst for this change was Russia's foreign exchange reserves being frozen after it invaded Ukraine.

Central bank buying was the primary driver behind a 24% surge in the gold price in 2024.

Gold ripped by another 65% in 2025.

Over time, investors noticed gold's ascendancy and started ploughing their own funds into the metal.

The gold price reached an all-time closing high of $5,589.38 per ounce on 28 January.

Economists describe central bank purchasing as a long-term structural change that will support the gold price well into the future.

Disrupted shipping impacted reserve flows

Wong said Gulf Cooperation Council nations are some of the world's largest accumulators of reserves, funded mainly by oil exports.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz halted energy revenues and stalled sovereign gold buying.

Wong points out that gold "does not require outright selling to fall; the loss of incremental buying pressure is sufficient".

When marginal demand falls from very strong to nonexistent, prices adjust sharply even in the absence of any forced selling.

Investors also sold their positions in gold

Wong said investors selling their positions in gold exacerbated the speed and size of the price fall.

The dominant driver here has been degrossing and deleveraging.

Rising volatility across rates, foreign exchanges (FX), equities, and commodities triggered mechanical risk reduction across hedge funds, systematic strategies, commodity trading advisors (CTAs), and leveraged portfolios.

In these environments, selling is rarely gradual.

Positions are cut quickly, correlations rise and liquidity is raised as the primary objective.

Wong said capital "rotated aggressively into the energy complex", drawing investment flows away from gold and other metals.

Lessons of historical gold sell-offs

Wong said structural pressures were building toward renewed monetary support, which is usually a powerful catalyst for the gold price.

In both 2008 and 2020, gold initially sold off sharply during periods of acute financial stress.

In each case, gold was sold not because it failed as a hedge but because it was one of the last remaining sources of liquidity.

Once forced selling ran its course and policy responses followed, gold rallied strongly to all-time highs within months of market lows.

Today's environment shares key features with those episodes: rising cross-asset volatility, tightening financial conditions and growing pressure on the global monetary system.

The post Why did the Iran war smash the gold price? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX small-cap shares are underperforming on Thursday with the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Index (ASX: XSO) down 1% while the S&P/ASX All Ords Index (ASX: XAO) is just 0.15% lower.

At the start of 2026, fundies had high hopes for global small-caps given many Western nations, including the US, appeared poised to cut interest rates.

The war in Iran has changed that outlook.

A two-week ceasefire is now in place, however, the shock to energy supplies will take months to filter throughout Western economies.

Given oil's flow-through effect to so many parts of the economy, including grocery prices, the impact may be enough to push up inflation.

Central banks are likely to respond by either hiking rates, or delaying previously anticipated rate cuts.

In Australia, inflation was resurgent even before the war began.

We've had two rate hikes already this year, and the market is pricing in a 60% chance of another one next month.

Higher interest rates are typically a headwind for small-caps, which are typically young companies using debt to fund their growth.

Here are 3 ASX small-cap shares that fund manager, Blackwattle, is backing for solid growth.

Blackwattle holds all three of these ASX shares in its Small Cap Quality Fund.

Lindian Resources Ltd (ASX: LIN)

The Lindian Resources share price is 88 cents, up 1.4% today.

This ASX rare earths mining share rose 26% over the past month, and is 782% higher over the past year.

Portfolio managers Robert Hawkesford and Daniel Broeren said:

Lindian Resources (+24.7%) is a rare earths miner in the final stages of bringing online its lead project, Kangankunde.

This is a unique asset given its low mining cost and extremely low capex requirements versus other rare earth projects globally.

For these reasons the company should be able to transition to production quickly, with first ore due later this year.

In March, Lindian announced a JV with a rare earths processor, which will allow it to produce a higher-grade concentrate.

This has materially increased the value of the company as it captures more of the value chain and taps into Western markets looking to pivot away from China supply.

Ridley Corporation Ltd (ASX: RIC)

The Ridley Corporation share price is steady at $2.74 on Thursday.

This small-cap ASX agribusiness share rose 2% over the past month, and is 14% higher over 12 months.

Blackwattle also holds this ASX share in its Small Cap Quality Fund.

Hawkesford and Broeren comment:

While the business may appear on the boring side, the excitement for us comes from the operational improvements executed by the management team under the current CEO, Quinton Hildebrand.

Hildebrand has guided the share price from 75c in 2020 to $2.90 by taking a strict focus on ROIC discipline.

Looking forward we are particularly excited about what can be delivered from the newly acquired fertiliser business, Incitec Pivot.

Superloop Ltd (ASX: SLC)

Superloop shares are $3.23, up 0.8% today.

This small-cap ASX telecommunications share rose 13% over the past month, and is 60% higher over 12 months.

Hawkesford and Broeren said:

Shares rose strongly in February following a well-received 1H26 result that demonstrated clear operating leverage and broad-based growth across all key metrics and segments.

Superloop continues to take market share from incumbent telecommunications providers, supported by its competitively priced high-speed broadband offerings and vertically integrated network.

Management commentary also reinforced confidence in the company's growth trajectory, with continued subscriber additions and
improving scale across the platform expected to drive meaningful earnings expansion over the coming years.

The post 3 ASX small-cap shares this fund manager expects to outperform appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.