Warning! 5 ASX stocks to fall 20% or more: Experts

According to the experts' 12-month share price targets, these stocks are set to tumble.

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S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) stocks closed 0.6% lower at 8,911.1 points on Thursday.

In the calendar year to date (YTD), ASX 200 shares have lifted just 2.1%.

A major commodities sell-off in late January and the global oil shock created by the war in Iran have weighed on equities this year.

Experts say some ASX stocks have hefty falls ahead of them.

Let's take a look at five.

A nervous ASX shares investor holding her hands to her face in fear.

Image source: Getty Images

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

The CBA share price closed at $162.23, down 0.9% on Thursday.

The ASX 200 bank stock is up 1% YTD.

Macquarie reiterated its sell rating on CBA shares this month.

The broker cut its 12-month price target from $114 to $111.

This implies a potential 32% downside ahead.

Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR)

The Sandfire Resources share price closed at $21.20, down 1.4% today.

This ASX 200 copper stock is once again trading close to its record high of $21.75 set in January.

Citi predicts a significant fall from here, but has a hold rating on the ASX mining stock.

The broker has a price target of $12.20, suggesting a 40%-plus slide ahead.

The lithium stock has risen 18% YTD.

IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO)

The IGO share price closed at $8.64, down 3.4% today.

This ASX 200 lithium stock is up 5% YTD.

Morgan Stanley has a sell rating on IGO shares with a $6.85 target.

This indicates a potential 21% downside ahead.

Centuria Capital Group (ASX: CNI)

Centuria Capital stock closed at $2.18, down 0.5% today.

This ASX real estate investment trust (REIT) is up 7% YTD.

UBS has a hold rating on the ASX real estate stock with a $1.69 target.

This implies 23% potential downside ahead.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES

The Wesfarmers share price closed at $85.78, up 0.3% today.

This ASX 200 consumer discretionary stock is up 5% YTD.

Wesfarmers recently held its 2026 Strategy Briefing Day.

Management told investors about Wesfarmers' growth and productivity plans, and emphasised the strong balance sheet.

Managing Director Rob Scott said Wesfarmers' main goal was to deliver satisfactory returns for shareholders.

Scott said Wesfarmers stock had delivered an average annual return of 15.8% over 10 years.

This compares to a 9.2% average annual return from the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index.

Citi kept its sell recommendation on Wesfarmers stock with a $69 target after the event.

This implies a potential 20% downside ahead.

Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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