Oil prices slump to pre-war levels as supply-risk premium evaporates

ASX 200 energy shares have fallen sharply since news broke of a US-Iran interim agreement.

The Brent crude oil price hit a four-year high of US$114 per barrel during the war between the US and Iran.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also reached a four-year high of US$113 per barrel during the conflict.

Oil prices skyrocketed due to the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20% of the world's oil and gas supply.

Today, all those oil price gains are gone.

Oil prices are back to pre-war levels, and ASX 200 energy shares are down sharply this week as a result.

Black barrels of oil in ascending and then descending sizes with a red arrow pointing down to indicate a falling oil price.

Image source: Getty Images

What's the oil price today?

The Brent crude oil price is US$79.50 per barrel, and WTI is US$76.40 per barrel at the time of writing.

Brent Crude is down 9% for the week and down 24% over the month. WTI has fallen 10% this week and 22% over the month.

Oil prices began a rapid retreat in recent weeks after US President Donald Trump talked up an impending deal with Iran.

News of a US-Iran interim peace agreement earlier this week saw a final cascade in oil prices back to February levels.

The deal incorporates a 60-day ceasefire, the end of the US blockade of Iranian ports, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trading Economics analysts said the supply disruption caused by the 16-week war was the biggest on record.

Today, tankers are slowly moving out of the Strait of Hormuz.

The analysts said:

Tankers carrying previously stranded crude began exiting the waterway on Thursday, and Kuwait said it would begin increasing production.

As a result, oil prices have erased nearly all the gains recorded since the Middle East conflict began in late February.

While oil prices have slumped, many economists say we have yet to see the full inflationary impact of the supply shock.

In Australia, higher oil prices have contributed to three interest rate rises already this year.

What's happening with ASX 200 energy shares on Friday?

ASX 200 energy shares are in the red on Friday, with the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) down 0.9%.

By comparison, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 1%.

The Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) share price is up 0.1% to $28.66 today, but down 7.2% over the week.

The Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) share price is 1.5% lower at $7.23, and has fallen 8.9% over five days.

The Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) share price is 1.4% lower at $32.88, and is 8.1% lower over the week.

The Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX: VEA) share price is down 0.5% to $2.14, and down 1.8% over five days.

Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) shares are 2.3% lower at $1.41, and down 25.7% this week after production downgrades.

The Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) share price is 2.5% lower at 97 cents, and down 9.8% over five days.

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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