Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are marching higher today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock closed on Friday trading for $20.87. In early afternoon trade on Monday, shares are changing hands for $21.12 apiece, up 1.2%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.1% at this same time amid news that Iran has once more closed the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route.
Northern Star shares look to be catching some tailwinds today from an uptick in the gold price. Gold is currently fetching US$4,188.41 per ounce, up 0.8%.
Still, with the gold price now down 3.5% in 2026, and Northern Star flagging rising costs and lower production for the full 2026 financial year (FY 2026), shares in the Aussie gold giant are down 13.5% year to date.
That's well behind the 1.1% gains posted by the benchmark index since market close on 2 January.
And that underperformance will have only been modestly eased by the miner's 25 cent per share dividend payout on 26 March. Northern Star stock currently trades on a 2.6% fully-franked trailing dividend yield.
Which brings us back to our headline question.
Image source: Getty Images
Northern Star shares: Buy, hold, or sell?
Baker Young's Toby Grimm recently ran his slide rule over the Aussie gold mining giant (courtesy of The Bull).
"The emergence of prominent US based activist investor Elliott Investment Management has prompted optimism surrounding the gold miner," Grimm said.
If you missed it, in early June, the United States-based investment manager reported that it had upped its stake in Northern Star to more than $1 billion. That sees Elliot among the top five shareholders in the ASX 200 gold stock.
Citing a series of "operational missteps and repeated failures to execute capital projects on time and on budget", the US fund manager suggested a major board shakeup, a strategic review, and potential sale of the gold miner.
But Grimm doesn't believe these steps justify holding onto the stock at this time.
Summarising his sell recommendation on Northern Star shares, he concluded:
However, in our view, it doesn't alter the underperformance of NST's asset base involving production volumes, costs and capital expenditure requirements.
A new management team will likely rebase expectations. But we would seek alternative gold exposure for those still playing the theme. The shares have fallen from $31.73 on March 2 to trade at $21.44 on June 18.
