CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares are enjoying a welcome day of outperformance today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) biotech giant closed yesterday trading for $112.88. In morning trade on Tuesday, shares are changing hands for $113.38, up 0.4%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.1% at this same time.
I mention today's outperformance as 'welcome' because, longer term, the ASX healthcare share has been having a tough time of it.
How tough?
Well, despite today's uptick, shares remain down a steep 52.9% over the past 12 months. A capital loss that will have only been very modestly eased by the two unfranked dividends the company paid out to eligible stockholders over the last year.
CSL shares trade on a 3.8% unfranked trailing dividend yield.
And if Peak Asset Management's Niv Dagan has it right, the Aussie biotech company isn't out of the woods just yet (courtesy of The Bull).
Here's why.
Image source: Getty Images
Time to sell CSL shares?
"A sell rating is justified as this biotechnology giant has materially downgraded its fiscal year 2026 outlook while announcing about $5 billion of additional non-cash pre-tax impairments across fiscal years 2026 and 2027," Dagan noted.
"Revenue expectations have been reduced due to US immunoglobulin channel normalisation and weaker albumin prices in China," he added.
Summarising his other potential headwinds facing CSL shares, Dagan concluded:
The CSL Vifor acquisition has under-performed. Also, government healthcare cost pressures and a higher interest rate environment present ongoing challenges for the biotechnology sector, further weighing on sentiment.
What did the ASX 200 healthcare share report?
CSL shares closed down a precipitous 16% on 11 May, the day the company reported on the downgraded FY 2026 outlook Dagan mentioned above.
Investors were overheating their sell buttons after the company cut its FY 2026 revenue guidance to around $15.2 billion, in constant currency. That would represent a 2.5% decline from FY 2025 revenue.
CSL also reduced its full-year net profit after tax and amortisation (NPATA) forecast to approximately $3.1 billion. That's down 6% from the prior year.
Commenting on the revised forecasts on the day, CSL managing director and CEO Gordon Naylor said, "Our growth initiatives are working, but the financial benefits will take longer than previously anticipated to materialise."
Naylor added:
As a result, we have now revised down our 2026 financial year guidance.
CSL's culture and people continue to be first class, the industry is stable and growing, and the company has evident strengths in plasma collections and influenza vaccines. I am confident that the company can be returned to profitable growth and my work is to position the business and the next CEO for success.
