BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares have been on fire over the past 12 months.
Thanks largely to their exposure to the booming copper price, the mining giants have hit record highs in recent weeks.
One ASX copper share that is nowhere near its high is Aeris Resources Ltd (ASX: AIS).
But it might not stay that way for long if Bell Potter is on the money with its recommendation.
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What is the broker saying about this ASX copper share?
Bell Potter notes that Aeris Resources is close to completing its acquisition of Peel Mining Ltd (ASX: PEX). This will give it ownership of the Mallee Bull and Wirlong copper projects. It said:
The Scheme of Arrangement by which AIS has acquired 100% of Peel Mining (PEX, not rated) has become effective. The transaction gives AIS ownership of the Mallee Bull and Wirlong copper projects which contain a combined Resource of 10.6Mt @ 1.85% Cu for 197kt contained Cu. They sit within a ~150-200km trucking radius of Tritton. Combined with the current Resource at Tritton this is a total Resource of 29.5 Mt @ 1.73% Cu for 511kt contained Cu. Consideration is all scrip, comprising the issue of 300.0m shares to PEX shareholders and is expected to complete on 1 July 2026.
It sees a lot of positives from the deal, highlighting that it adds development optionality and derisks production. The broker explains:
The strategic rationale is to significantly increase AIS' Cobar region resource base, materially extending the mine life at Tritton, adding development optionality and derisking production. The high-grade Mallee Bull deposit is the subject of a maiden Ore Reserve Estimate (ORE) to be released in 1QFY27 and contribute to an updated life-of-mine (LOM) plan for Tritton.
Additionally, we expect an updated ORE for the Constellation deposit, as well as Resource extensions at Avoca Tank and Budgerygar deposits where recent drilling has intersected ore-grade mineralisation significantly below the current Resource at Avoca Tank and thicker than expected mineralisation within in the Budgerygar Inferred Resource. These acquisitions and exploration successes are providing more visibility on mine life at Tritton than at any time since its initial development.
Major upside potential
According to the note, Bell Potter has retained its buy rating and 90 cents price target on the ASX copper share.
Based on its current share price of 40.2 cents, this implies potential upside of 120% for investors over the next 12 months.
Speaking about its investment thesis, the broker said:
We make no material changes to our valuation with this update. We continue to look to AIS' quarterly production performance and updates on the development of the Constellation deposit at Tritton for key near-term catalysts. AIS is a copper-dominant producer, with its near-term outlook highly leveraged to the copper price and increasing production at Tritton.
Tritton is a strategic regional asset with corporate appeal and capacity to leverage value from stranded assets, in our view. With upside to our Target Price supported by growing free cash flow and low valuation multiples it remains a key pick for CY26. Our Target Price of $0.90/sh is unchanged and we maintain our Buy recommendation.
