Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares have climbed into the green in Tuesday lunchtime trade.
At the time of writing, the ASX banking giant's share price is up around 0.5% and changing hands at $35.36 a piece.
The increase is good news for investors after the ASX bank stock hit a 10-month low of $34.50 nearly two weeks ago.
But there is still a long way to go before Westpac shares recover losses shed over the past couple of months. Even after today's uptick, the shares are still down around 9% for the year to date and are 17% lower than an all-time high recorded in early April.
For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down around 0.1% at the time of writing, but is around 1% higher for the year to date.
Image source: Getty Images
What has happened to Westpac shares recently?
Westpac posted a solid first-half result in early May. Westpac's statutory net profit was 3% higher year on year but 5% lower compared to the second half of FY25. Its total lending and deposit growth also climbed 7% year on year.
There was a brief share price uptick after the result was announced, but then investor sentiment reversed, and the sell-off resumed.
Confidence about the outlook for Westpac remains low, and broad bank-sector weakness has also helped pull its share price lower.
The bank's shares came under even more selling pressure last month after a court ruling weighed on sentiment. The ruling related to ongoing compliance risk at the bank.
The good news is that the Reserve Bank's latest interest rate hold decision has alleviated some pressure for Westpac this month. Westpac is the most mortgage-exposed of the big four bank shares, with approximately 69% of its loan book in residential mortgages.
But, it looks like the reprieve is only temporary. The bank's own economists do expect the cash rate to begin rising again in late 2026.
The question now is, if you own Westpac shares, what should you do with them?
Should you sell up ahead before the share price falls again? Hold tight and wait it out? Or buy more in the dip?
Here's what the experts think.
Are Westpac shares a buy, sell, or hold?
It's clear that, even after the latest declines, the market still considers Westpac shares as overpriced and above fair value.
Market Index data shows that the majority of brokers have a strong sell rating on the banking giant's shares. The $32.96 average target price implies a potential 7% downside at the time of writing.
TradingView data also shows that the majority (nine out of 16) have a sell or strong sell rating on the shares. The average $33.48 target price implies a potential 6% downside at the time of writing. However, some expect Westpac's shares to fall up to 17% to $29.41 over the next 12 months.
Christopher Watt from Bell Potter Securities is one broker with a sell rating on this ASX bank share.
He said that while the business is improving on the metrics that matter, the operating backdrop is weakening. He added that mortgage applications are down, and proposed tax and negative gearing changes have soured sentiment. With the stock trading near the top of its range, Watt sees more downside than upside ahead for Westpac shares.
My view of Westpac shares
I think that continued competition in the mortgage market, the uncertain outlook for cash rate movements, and dwindling analysts' confidence point to more downside ahead.
I'm not sure I'd sell up just yet, but I certainly wouldn't be adding more Westpac shares to my portfolio without some visibility of a potential turnaround ahead.
