Today's outperformance follows news of a sales agreement with Australian electricity provider AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL).

Any guesses?

If you said Amplitude Energy Ltd (ASX: AEL), go to the head of the virtual class.

Amplitude Energy shares closed yesterday trading for $1.72. At time of writing, shares are changing hands for $1.83 apiece, up 6.4%.

Currently trading for $9.45 each, AGL shares are down 0.5% at this same time.

Here's what's catching investor interest.

ASX 300 energy stock jumps on AGL gas sales deal

Amplitude Energy shares are leaping higher after the ASX 300 energy stock announced that it has executed a binding Foundation Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) with AGL.

Covering an initial four-year term, the deal would see Amplitude supply AGL with 20 petajoules (PJ) of gas from its East Coast Supply Project (ECSP).

The price Amplitude Energy receives for that gas will be linked to prevailing market rates for oil prices. Management is targeting first supply in the second half of 2028.

The ASX 300 energy stock noted that its sales agreement with AGL depends on its current ECSP drilling campaign confirming enough gas reserves and production capacity.

What did management say?

Commenting on the deal that's helping boost the ASX 300 energy stock today, Amplitude Energy managing director and CEO Jane Norman said, "We are delighted to extend our long-term partnership with AGL Energy through this Foundation GSA for the ECSP."

According to Norman:

AGL Energy has been a key supporter of Amplitude Energy, including as a foundation buyer from the Sole gas project. This GSA reflects the strong demand we are seeing for reliable, domestic gas supply in Southeast Australia, as well as both parties' confidence in the ECSP.

"This agreement supports AGL's strategy to secure reliable, long-term domestic gas supply and underpin new production to market," AGL chief commercial officer David Moretto said.

Moretto added:

Gas remains essential in firming large scale renewables and supporting customers through the transition, particularly in South East Australia. It reflects our disciplined approach to contracting that underpins system reliability and customer outcomes.

How have AGL and Amplitude Energy shares been tracking?

It's been a volatile year for both Amplitude Energy and AGL shares.

With more downs than ups, the AGL share price has dropped 8% over the past 12 months.

Amplitude Energy shares remain down 10% since this time last year.

The post Guess which ASX 300 energy stock is surging today on big AGL news appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

To narrow things down, let's see what Shaw and Partners is saying about three big names, courtesy of The Bull.

Are they buys, holds, or sells this week? Let's find out:

AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL)

Shaw and Partners currently rates this energy giant as a hold.

While there are positives, it has concerns over the challenges that AGL Energy faces with respect to asset transitions and evolving policy settings. It explains:

AGL provides exposure to Australia's energy sector during a period of structural change. The company benefits from its scale and essential service positioning, but faces ongoing challenges as it navigates asset transitions and evolving policy settings. Earnings stability has improved, yet execution risk still remains. In our view, AGL warrants a hold rating, balancing its strategic importance against longer term capital requirements.

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG)

Shaw and Partners is far more positive on rival Origin Energy. This week, the broker has put a buy rating on its shares.

It likes the company due to its attractive income profile and exposure to the domestic energy transition. However, it warns that an investment is not without risk. Shaw and Partners said:

Origin combines an attractive income profile with leveraged exposure to Australia's evolving energy market. The company benefits from scale in electricity generation and retailing, while its yield remains appealing in a market still sensitive to income certainty. That said, regulatory risk and energy price volatility remain key risks. We see Origin as well placed to balance defensive income characteristics with longer term opportunities tied to the domestic energy transition.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

Finally, Shaw and Partners rates Woodside shares as a sell this week.

The broker believes investors should be taking advantage of a strong rise in its share price to sell at current levels. It explains:

This energy giant has historically struggled to consistently meet market expectations. While the current commodity environment has supported its share price, we see this as an opportunity to exit. Capital intensity, project execution risk and long dated development timelines remain my concerns.

Investors may want to consider taking advantage of its recent valuation and improved sentiment. The shares rose from $23.59 on January 9 to $35.80 on April 7. The shares were trading at $33.37 on April 9. The shares are also responding to volatile crude oil prices resulting from the Middle East conflict.

The post Buy, hold, sell: AGL, Origin Energy, and Woodside shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the time of writing, the energy giant's shares are up 1% to $9.98.

Why are AGL shares rising today?

The catalyst for today's move appears to be the release of an announcement confirming a major investment decision by the energy company.

According to the release, AGL has reached a final investment decision (FID) to proceed with the Kwinana Gas Power Generation 2 (K2) project in Western Australia.

This project will involve the development of a 220MW open-cycle, dual-fuel gas turbine power station, which will be located alongside the existing Kwinana Swift facility.

Major investment in firming capacity

AGL revealed that the total cost of the project is expected to be approximately $490 million, including previously announced gas turbine purchases.

Construction is scheduled to begin in mid-2026, with operations targeted to commence in the fourth quarter of 2027. The asset is expected to have a 25-year operating life.

Importantly, a significant portion of the project's revenues has already been secured.

AGL notes that it has been assigned 176MW of Peak Certified Reserve Capacity by the Australian Energy Market Operator, providing contracted revenue for 10 years at a price of $360,700 per MW. This will also escalate with inflation over the years.

Management is targeting a post-tax, ungeared return of above 8% for the project, which sits within its previously stated return range of 7% to 11% for firming investments.

Strengthening Western Australia presence

The K2 project is expected to strengthen AGL's position in Western Australia and support the growth of its Perth Energy business.

The company noted that it has a flexible gas portfolio in the region, including short, medium, and long-term supply and storage contracts, which positions it well to support the project.

Capital expenditure will be staged over several years, with around one-third of the investment expected in FY 2026, approximately half in FY 2027, and the remainder in FY 2028. As a result, AGL now expects growth capital expenditure of approximately $750 million in FY 2026.

AGL's managing director and CEO, Damien Nicks, believes the investment represents another step forward in the company's strategy. He said:

The Final Investment Decision on the K2 Project, on the back of our recently signed 15-year PPA with Waddi Wind Farm for 105 MW, bolsters AGL's portfolio in Western Australia and provides further opportunity to continue to scale our Perth Energy business and further diversify our earnings outside the NEM. It marks another important milestone in AGL's strategy to develop new firming capacity to support the build out of renewables, and further expands the breadth and capacity of the company's flexible asset portfolio.

The post Why are AGL shares rising today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did AGL Energy report?

• Final Investment Decision to proceed with $490 million Kwinana Gas Power Generation 2 Project
• K2 will be a 220 MW open-cycle, dual-fuel gas turbine plant, co-located with AGL's existing Kwinana facility
• Construction to start mid-2026, with operations targeted for Q4 2027
• Ten years of revenue secured at $360,700 per MW, escalating with CPI
• Expected asset life of 25 years; targeted project return above 8% post-tax, ungeared
• Growth capex forecast for FY26 now approximately $750 million

What else do investors need to know?

AGL reached this FID just months after agreeing to purchase four gas turbines from Siemens AB, illustrating strong momentum in its portfolio revamp. The company has also secured 176 MW of Peak Certified Reserve Capacity credits from the Australian Energy Market Operator, which begin from October 2027.

Funding for the project will come from AGL's existing balance sheet, and about one-third of the K2 expenditure will occur in FY26, with the rest spread across the following two years. The deal strengthens AGL's position in WA, where it has a flexible gas supply portfolio to support the new facility.

What did AGL Energy management say?

AGL Managing Director and CEO Damien Nicks, said:

The Final Investment Decision on the K2 Project, on the back of our recently signed 15-year PPA with Waddi Wind Farm for 105 MW, bolsters AGL's portfolio in Western Australia and provides further opportunity to continue to scale our Perth Energy business and further diversify our earnings outside the NEM. It marks another important milestone in AGL's strategy to develop new firming capacity to support the build out of renewables, and further expands the breadth and capacity of the company's flexible asset portfolio.

What's next for AGL Energy?

AGL expects construction of the K2 project to commence in mid-2026, with plant operations targeted for late 2027. This investment is part of AGL's broader strategy to add new firming capacity and support Australia's renewable transition, especially outside the National Electricity Market.

With a diversified generation and gas portfolio, AGL continues to focus on its Climate Transition Action Plan, positioning itself to be a leader in Australia's shift toward lower emissions and a smarter energy future.

AGL Energy share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, AGL shares have declined 6%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 8% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post AGL Energy gives green light to $490m Kwinana gas project appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

After all, there is no point going for the highest yielding ASX stock out there if its share price is due to correct.

Here are three strong ASX dividend shares, each with a yield of over 5% and with great growth potential over the next 12 months.

AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL)

AGL Energy shares jumped 20% higher in February after the company's revised FY26 guidance figures excited investors. The energy company said it expects full-year underlying EBITDA of $2.02 billion to $2.18 billion. It also expects an underlying profit of $580 million to $680 million.

Most excitingly, the board also elected to increase its fully-franked interim dividend to 24 cents per share, up 4.3% from 23 cents last year. At the time of writing, that translates to a dividend of around 5.1%.

AGL is expected to grow its annual dividend even further, too. For FY26, UBS expects AGL to make an annual payout of 49 cents per share. It expects to pay 54 cents per share in FY27.

Analysts tip an upside as high as 40% for AGL shares too, to $13.25 over the next 12 months.

Rural Funds Group (ASX: RFF)

Rural Funds Group is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that is focused on agricultural assets ranging from cattle to almonds. The company has high exposure to essential food production and agricultural supply chains and is expected to benefit from long-term demand.

The ASX dividend stock has paid a quarterly unfranked dividend to investors since 2016. Investors will be paid 2.9 cents per share next month. This implies a yield of around 5.5% at the time of writing. 

Bell Potter forecasts the company will pay dividends per share of 11.7 cents in FY 2026 and FY 2027. 

Analysts tip an upside as high as 24% to $2.50 per share over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.

Dexus Industria REIT (ASX: DXI)

Dexus Industria REIT has a portfolio of workplace-focused properties comprising more than 90 assets. The listed Australian real estate investment trust (LIT) is primarily invested in industrial warehouses. It plans to provide resilient income growth and long-term risk-adjusted returns to investors. It benefits from a diversified tenant base, high occupancy, and stable rental income. 

The company has paid a quarterly unfranked or partially franked dividend since 2017. Its investors will be paid an unfranked quarterly dividend of 4.1 cents in May, implying a yield of around 6.9%.

The company is forecast to pay dividends per share of 16.6 cents in FY26 and then 16.8 cents in FY27. 

Analysts tip an upside as high as 43% over the next 12 months, to $3.40 per share, at the time of writing.

The post 3 ASX dividend shares yielding 5%+ that still have growth potential appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

According to The ABC, Unions, the Greens, crossbenchers and One Nation are among those who want gas profits levied, with pressure mounting on Labor to respond to growing calls to reform the current tax system.

What is a gas tax?

Currently, the government collects about $1.5 billion in annual revenue through the Petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT).

In simple terms:

• It's a tax on profits, not on total sales
• Companies only pay PRRT after they've made enough money to cover all their costs
• Once a project becomes really profitable, the government takes a share of those extra profits.

However, some politicians are now pushing for reforms to the current model.

ACT independent senator David Pocock has criticised this current system as a "rip-off".

He said Australia should have a flat 25 per cent tax on all gas exports, which was the proposal also put forward by the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) last year.

The Australia Institute has estimated it would raise about $17 billion a year.

What's happening now?

According to The ABC, The Coalition and gas exporters have pushed back against this proposed change, arguing the current energy crisis sparked by war in the Middle East was the worst time to act. 

They warned that a new gas tax would discourage investment, create uncertainty, and weaken energy security and job growth.

Total taxes and royalties paid by the gas industry were $21.9 billion in 2024-25, according to the sector.

However, The Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet have reportedly asked the Treasury to model "new levy options" to tax windfall gas and thermal coal company profits ahead of the federal budget in May.

In the rationale for the request, which also included exploring reforms to the PRRT, the department said that energy producers should not benefit from high international prices at the expense of domestic customers.

How does this impact energy stocks?

It's important to understand that any sort of concrete tax changes have not been promised.

If tweaks were to be made to the current system, it could impact energy stocks in a few ways. 

For ASX-listed oil, gas, and coal companies, a new "gas tax" (especially something like a flat export levy) would likely reduce earnings. 

Companies such as Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) or Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could see a direct hit to net profit, especially on export-heavy LNG projects.

However, even with an increased tax, these companies will likely remain very profitable.

Some investors may view the sector as still attractive, just less lucrative than before.

Further down the pipeline, second-order effects spread across producers, infrastructure, services, and even utilities – some negatively, some potentially positively.

For example, companies such as AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL) might actually benefit if policy shifts increase domestic supply or lower local gas prices.

While this is all hypothetical, developments are worth monitoring for ASX energy investors, as eyes will be on the federal budget in May.

The post What would a gas tax mean for ASX energy stocks? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This follows a volatile period for gas markets and shows how quickly sentiment can shift amid the return of geopolitical risks and supply concerns.

Middle East tensions drive price rebound

Gas prices moved higher as tensions increased across key energy-producing regions in the Middle East.

Recent reports point to strikes on important infrastructure linked to Iran and Qatar, including activity near Ras Laffan Industrial City. This site is important because it supports the world's largest LNG export operations.

There have also been developments regarding Iran's South Pars gas field, one of the world's largest gas reserves. On top of that, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, affecting vessel traffic.

The Middle East is a major supplier of LNG, so any disruption to production or shipping can tighten supply and push prices higher.

Storage data adds to the price move

Alongside geopolitical risks, recent US inventory data has also influenced the market.

The US Energy Information Administration reported a storage withdrawal of 38 billion cubic feet in the latest week. This was below expectations of around 42 billion cubic feet.

Even though the draw was smaller than expected, prices still moved higher as supply concerns remained in focus.

Storage levels are relatively comfortable, and US production continues to run near record levels.

Flow-on impact for ASX energy stocks

Rising natural gas prices can affect Australian energy companies, particularly those exposed to electricity generation and wholesale energy markets.

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) shares are currently trading around $11.81, giving the company a market capitalisation of approximately $20.35 billion. Origin has direct exposure to gas through its generation portfolio and LNG-linked operations.

On the other hand, AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL) shares are trading near $9.27, with a market capitalisation of about $6.24 billion. AGL remains one of Australia's largest electricity generators and retailers, with gas playing a key role in its energy mix.

A market driven by risk and volatility

Despite the recent move, natural gas prices remain extremely volatile.

On a monthly basis, natural gas is still up around 8.5%, but it remains down roughly 18.5% over the past year. This highlights ongoing swings in supply, demand, and global risk.

Global energy markets are also adjusting to shifting trade flows. Disruptions to LNG supply, combined with demand from Asia and Europe, continue to influence pricing.

Investors should keep a close eye on global developments and gas price movements.

The post Natural gas jumps 6% overnight. Which ASX gas giants stand to benefit? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

During this time, the counter-drone technology company's shares have risen over 380% and currently trade at $4.07.

To put that into context, a $5,000 investment a year ago would now be worth approximately $24,000.

But those returns are now behind us. Could DroneShield shares double again this year? Let's find out.

Could DroneShield shares double?

It is worth remembering that nobody can say with certainty whether a share price will go higher, let alone double in value. But that doesn't mean that we can't consider whether it is a possibility.

Firstly, at the current share price, DroneShield has a market capitalisation of $3.75 billion.

This means that if its shares were to double, it would take the company's market capitalisation to $7.5 billion.

That's more than retail giant Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN), Dan Murphy's owner Endeavour Group Ltd (ASX: EDV), and energy giant AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL).

That sort of valuation might be a bit of a stretch based on its current sales and profits, but there's no reason why it couldn't get there in the next few years if its strong momentum continues.

For now, I would say the probability of its shares doubling is low. But I would also never rule anything out with this market darling.

What are brokers saying?

The team at Bell Potter is bullish on DroneShield shares. However, not to the point that the broker believes they could double in value over the next 12 months.

According to a recent note, the broker has a buy rating and $4.80 price target on its shares.

Based on its current share price of $4.07, this implies potential upside of 18% for investors over the next 12 months.

While not a 100% gain, this is still comfortably ahead of the average annual share market return of around 10%. So, it certainly isn't something to be sniffed at!

Commenting on its buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:

We believe DRO has a market leading RF detect/defeat C-UAS offering and a strengthening competitive advantage owing to its years of battlefield experience and large and focused R&D team. We expect 2026 will be an inflection point for the global C-UAS industry with countries poised to unleash a wave of spending on RF detect and defeat solutions.

Consequently, we believe DRO should see material contracts flowing from its $2.3b potential sales pipeline over the next 3-6 months as defence budgets roll over to FY26e. At 35x CY26e EV / EBITDA, DRO trades at a discount to the global drone peer group. Further, we see upside risk to our revenue forecasts in CY26/27e, given the opportunities observed in the C-UAS industry.

The post Could DroneShield shares double again in 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Here are three new opinions published on The Bull this week.

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (ASX: CLW)

The Charter Hall Long WALE REIT has fallen 4.6% over the past 12 months.

The ASX REIT reported operating earnings of $90.6 million, up 2%, for 1H FY26.

Dylan Evans from Catapult Wealth has a buy rating on this ASX real estate investment trust (REIT).

Evans said:

This Australian real estate investment trust reported solid first half results in fiscal year 2026, which were in line with expectations.

Statutory earnings of $153.6 million increased 209 per cent compared to the prior corresponding period.

Net tangible assets of $4.68 per security were up 2 per cent from June 30, 2025.

CLW's share price has declined due to the re-emergence of inflation and its impact on interest rates and bond yields.

CLW appeals for its reliable income stream. It was recently trading on a dividend yield above 6.5 per cent, supported by a high quality property portfolio with occupancy of 99.9 per cent and a weighted average lease length of more than nine years.

ASX Ltd (ASX: ASX)

The ASX share price has fallen 21.1% over the past 12 months.

The company reported an 11.2% increase in revenue to $602.8 million for 1H FY26.

Statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) was $263.6 million, up 8.3%, and total expenses were $264.3 million, up 20%.

Evans has a hold rating on this ASX financial share.

He explains:

The financial markets operator has struggled for several years. It continues to face regulatory scrutiny after technology issues.

Total expenses of $264.4 million in the first half of 2026 were up 20 per cent, partly as a result of costs associated with the inquiry by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, which cited ASX operational and governance issues in its interim report.

However, Evans thinks the outlook for ASX Ltd is improving.

It has consistently grown its revenues, courtesy of a near monopoly position.

If the company can reduce costs and sustain revenue growth, earnings should benefit moving forward.

Aussie Broadband Ltd (ASX: ABB)

The Aussie Broadband share price has increased 28.4% over the past 12 months.

Aussie Broadband reported a 13.5% increase in underlying EBITDA to $74.7 million for 1H FY26.

Earlier this month, the telco announced it intends to buy the telecommunications business of AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL).

Aussie Broadband will pay AGL $115 million worth of scrip upfront, with a further $10 million in scrip to be paid in tranches.

Jonathan Tacadena from MPC Markets has a sell rating on the ASX telecommunications share.

He says:

ABB's acquisition of AGL Energy's telecommunications business looks like a genuinely good deal.

It adds an estimated 350,000 broadband services and mobile connections to ABB's customer base.

The acquisition is expected to be completed in June 2026. Migration is expected to be completed in the first half of fiscal year 2027.

ABB shares soared sharply on the news, but then retreated. Technically, that's a bearish sign.

We believe good news from the AGL deal is priced into the stock, so we would be inclined to cash in some gains.

The Aussie Broadband share price has fallen from $6.09 on 22 October to $5.11 at yesterday's close.   

The post Buy, hold, sell: Charter Hall Long WALE, ASX, Aussie Broadband shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

AGL shares look to have taken a turn today after two weeks of solid gains. Despite cooling off this week, the share price is still 13.9% higher than before its most recent results announcement.

What did investors like about AGL Energy's post results?

On the 11th of February, AGL reported flat underlying EBITDA and a 6% decline in underlying net profit after tax. 

Investors were most excited by the company's revised FY26 guidance figures which revealed it now expects full-year underlying EBITDA of $2.02 billion to $2.18 billion. Previously, the range was $1.92 billion to $2.22 billion.

Its underlying net profit guidance was also tightened to $580 million to $680 million, from a much wider range of $500 million to $700 million.

Despite its profit decline during the first half, the AGL board elected to increase its interim dividend. The company declared a fully franked interim dividend of 24 cents per share, which is up 4.3% from 23 cents per share a year earlier, to be paid on the 26th of March 2026.

Clearly investors were thrilled, but now the question is, what's next?

Analysts confirmed their ratings on AGL shares

Following the company's results announcement, Citi confirmed its buy rating on the ASX All Ords utilities share with a price target of $11.80. 

RBC Capital also has a buy recommendation with a target of $11.50.

The team at UBS also rates the energy retailer and generator as a buy, with a price target of $11.00. The broker said it thinks AGL is in a strong position to grow its underlying EBITDA year-over-year to 2030 so long as generation availability is maintained. It also said that its recent results show that AGL's battery portfolio is performing ahead of expectations.

Plenty of upside left for AGL Energy shares

The brokers above aren't the only ones bullish on the energy company's stock. TradingView data shows that out of 10 analysts, nine have a buy or strong buy rating on AGL Energy shares.

The average target price of $11.50, which is in line with RBC Capital's expectations, implies a 14.28% upside from the share price at the time of writing.

But some expect the share price could jump even higher to $13.25 a piece. That implies a huge 31.75% potential upside ahead for AGL investors. 

The post AGL Energy shares soar 14%: Is there any upside left? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

ASX All Ords shares have risen 1.7% over the week as more companies revealed strong earnings results and dividends.

Next week, a large group of ASX shares go ex-dividend. We provide a sample of these stocks below.

To pick up a dividend payment, you must own the share before the ex-dividend date.

ASX shares about to go ex-dividend

Here are 16 ASX shares going ex-dividend next week.

Which companies are reporting next week?

According to the calendar, we will hear from Adairs Ltd (ASX: ADH), Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD), and Nib Holdings Ltd (ASX: NHF) on Monday.

On Tuesday, ARB Corporation Ltd (ASX: ARB), Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS), and Monadelphous Group Ltd (ASX: MND) are up.

On Wednesday, we'll get reports from Bapcor Ltd (ASX: BAP), Domino's Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP), and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG).

Light & Wonder Inc (ASX: LNW), Wisetech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC), and Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) will also report on Wednesday.

On Thursday, Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR), Monash IVF Group Ltd (ASX: MVF), and Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) will release their earnings.

Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX: RHC), Super Retail Group Ltd (ASX: SUL), and Worley Ltd (ASX: WOR) will also be in the spotlight.

On Friday, we'll see reports from Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL), Star Entertainment Group Ltd (ASX: SGR), and TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPG).

The post 16 ASX shares going ex-dividend next week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Meantime, brokers have identified some stocks that they think are good buys for the year ahead.

Let's check them out.

8 ASX All Ords shares with strong buy consensus ratings

The following stocks have been recently upgraded to 'strong buy' consensus ratings among analysts on the CommSec platform.

A consensus rating is the average rating based on a number of analysts' opinions.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

The Zip share price is $2.50, down 0.4% on Tuesday.

This ASX All Ords financial share is up 2% over the past 12 months.

UBS is among the brokers recommending investors buy Zip shares.

The broker has a 12-month share price target of $5.20 on the buy now, pay later (BNPL) provider.

Citi also has a buy rating with a much lower target of $4.30.

Zip will report its earnings on Thursday.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

The Xero share price is at a three-year low of $77, down 2.7% today as the global tech downturn continues.

The ASX All Ords tech share has halved in value over the past six months.

In February, several brokers have reiterated their buy ratings but with vastly different 12-month price targets.

Jefferies has a target of $82.70 and Citi is tipping $144.80 per share.

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC)

The Wisetech share price is also at a three-year low of $45.49, down 5.6% on Tuesday.

Wisetech shares have lost 63% of their value over the past year.

This month, Jefferies reiterated its buy rating with a 12-month price target of $65.

Citi is far more ambitious with a target of $109.15.

Wisetech will release its 1H FY26 results next Wednesday.

Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX)

The Westgold Resources share price is currently $7.20, down 0.8%.

The ASX All Ords gold share is up 193% over the past 12 months.

Macquarie is among the brokers with a buy rating on Westgold shares. Its 12-month target is $9.90.

Ord Minnett also has a buy recommendation with a target of $8.65.

Some experts believe the gold price could rise above US$7,000 per ounce this year.

Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM)

This ASX All Ords gold share is $13.32 apiece on Tuesday, down 0.9%.

Capricorn Metals shares have soared 68% over the past 12 months.

This month, Macquarie upgraded its rating to buy and lifted its price target from $15.20 to $16.20.

AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL)

The AGL share price is $10.43, down 0.6% today and down 2.7% over the past 12 months.

Last week, AGL reported an underlying profit of $353 million for 1H FY26, down 6% on 1H FY25.

The energy retailer announced a fully franked interim dividend of 24 cents per share.

Citi has a buy rating on the ASX All Ords utilities share with a price target of $11.80. 

RBC Capital also has a buy recommendation with a target of $11.50.

Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX)

The Telix Pharmaceuticals share price is $8.33, down 3.5% on Tuesday.

The ASX All Ords healthcare share is down 70% over the past 12 months.

Citi just reiterated its buy rating on Telix with a price target of $34.

TD Cowen also has a buy rating but lowered its price target from $25 to $20.

WA1 Resources Ltd (ASX: WA1)

This ASX All Ords copper share is $15.62 apiece, down 2% today and up 18% over the past 12 months.

Copper is in high demand due to the green energy transition and rising debasement trade amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties.

The red metal is essential for electrification and a key input in new infrastructure like wind turbines and data centres.

This month, Canaccord Genuity reiterated its buy rating and lifted its 12-month price target from $28 to $32.

The post 8 ASX All Ords shares just upgraded to strong buy status appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

You probably know this, but companies that are listed on the ASX are required to lodge their accounts within two months of the end of their half- and full-year accounting periods.

What you may not know is that companies aren't obliged to use the tax- or calendar years – they can pick whatever date they like. They just have to lodge their accounts within two months of that date.

In the event, the vast majority of companies use June 30 and December 31. Most run traditional financial years – July 1 to June 30. Some use calendar years: January 1 to December 31. Either way, their half-year or full-year results are due by the end of February.

And given it usually takes them a month or so to put all of the data (and annoyingly self-promotional 'investor presentations') together, we don't tend to see them start publishing until this month.

And so, February (and August) become 'earnings season' – when almost all ASX companies give us that biannual look under the proverbial bonnet (no, not 'hood', thank you… and get off my lawn!)

And as of Friday, we're halfway through the month. So, what have we learned?

Firstly, investors really, really hate surprises. Like, really.

There have been quite a few large falls of 20% or more when companies released results that weren't in accordance with investor expectations.

Sometimes, that's justified. Other times? Well, short-termism can be the enemy of long-term success. If your investment thesis relies on one six month period being 'just so', then you're playing with fire.

On the other hand, if you are looking at a company's long-term growth prospects, half a lap around the sun is far less consequential.

We're definitely in the latter camp at The Motley Fool. Half-year results can absolutely be milestones, so we don't disregard them, but our focus is clearly on the question: "What does this result say about the 5 and 10 year prospects".

Sometimes, it says a lot. Good or bad. Sequential profit increases from quality companies are lovely. Unexpected losses can be a warning. But sometimes it's the opposite! That's why you have to look at the detail for yourself, rather than using share price movements to try to guess.

The best bit? If other investors overreact to temporary problems, but we think the long-term story is intact, we sometimes get the chance to take advantage of their pessimism and buy at cheap prices!

Second, growth comes from a multitude of places, and knowing which is which is vital when assessing a company's long term prospects.

Compare Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), for example.

CommBank managed to grow profits by 6% by growing its lending and deposit bases, even as margins shrank a little.

ANZ's year-on-year profit growth was the same, but it achieved that result largely by cutting costs.

Which result is better?

In the short term, money spends the same, no matter its source.

In the longer term, you 'can't cut your way to greatness' as the old saw holds.

On this result alone, Commonwealth Bank shareholders should be happier than ANZ's, because the former is on a significantly stronger growth path, which may bode well for the future.

That's not to say ANZ can't find growth from here. Or that the cost-cutting wasn't justified. Just that compound returns tend to be better when a business can deliver on something I tend to look for: 'being more relevant, to more customers, more often'.

Lastly, a perennial one: earnings season really should be called 'expectations season'.

Because share prices don't react to the actual results, but rather how those results compare to the market's 'expectations'.

Take a couple of energy companies: AGL Ltd (ASX: AGL) and Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG). Both companies' profits fell, compared to last year. And the share prices… rose.

Now a couple of retailers, Temple & Webster Ltd (ASX: TPW) and Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK). Both grew revenue strongly. Temple & Webster's profit fell, while Nick Scali's rose. And both companies' share prices… crashed.

Why?

In all four cases because the market expected something different to what the companies delivered.

By the way, don't be sucked into thinking about companies on the basis of their share prices. Sometimes, the movement in the share price tracks the business performance. But less often, in the short term, than you might think.

Too often, you hear 'Oh, XYZ is a great stock'. What those people mean is 'the share price has been going up lately'.

Or, 'ABC is a terrible stock' when they mean the price has been falling.

It's true that the investor returns have been good, and bad, respectively, in each case.

But they're talking about a really abstract issue, here, often without knowing it.

They're not really talking about the company at all – just its share price…

They're comparing two arbitrary points in time…

And they're comparing an average market expectation at those points.

Here's why. Consider a company whose shares fell from $100 per share to $10. That's unquestionably bad for those who paid $100 a share to buy it.

It's had a bad year. But does that make it a 'bad stock'? Only over that timeframe.

Now let's say the shares go from $10 back to $100 and then to $200.

Is it now a 'good stock'? Most would say yes.

But in both cases, all we're really saying is that the crowd loved, then hated, then loved the company again.

Maybe justifiably, based on the company's performance.

Or maybe not.

And here's the thing: it's all in the past anyway.

The only thing that matters is the future. Who cares if it is considered a 'good stock' or a 'bad stock' based on past activity (and past investor sentiment).

Investors hate tech companies at the moment. They loved them a year ago.

We've seen this movie before. The dot.com boom and crash, anyone? Or less remarked upon, the post-COVID tech boom and subsequent fall.

Banks are having a moment in the sun, after going nowhere for a few years, post-COVID.

Looking backward would have been somewhere between useless and expensive, if you'd used only past history to work out when to buy and sell.

So, as you look at the results of the past two weeks, and prepare for the next fortnight, here's a quick list to keep in mind:

Ignore:

– 'Great stocks' and 'bad stocks'

– Sentiment-driven share price moves

– Past share price performance

– Promotional company announcements that seek to selectively direct your attention

Focus on:

– The underlying earnings power of a business

– What the result tells you, if anything, about the long-term future

– The candour of management

– Whether today's price (not last year's price change) is attractive, based on the above

No, it's not always easy to ignore the people yelling 'the sky is falling', or a soaring share price.

But that's exactly what we have to do.

Your returns don't come from 'what just happened', but from 'what happens next'.

Invest accordingly.

Fool on!

The post What have we learned from earnings season so far? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

When a business trades on a relatively low price/earnings (P/E) ratio, it means that the dividend yield is naturally higher.

The energy space is in an interesting transitory period right now. Daytime energy is generally cheap because of solar power, while night-time power is much more expensively priced. It's this dynamic that is already helping AGL's earnings and could become even more pronounced in the coming years.

Broker UBS wrote the following in a recent note covering the AGL result:

AGL expects volatility to prevail into the LT [long-term] & owning low cost capacity assets with some operating flexibility to capture a greater share of higher price periods (ie. in partic. Loy Yang A & Bayswater Power stations) place AGL in a strong position to grow underlying EBITDA y/y to 2030—provided generation availability is maintained. We forecast underlying EBITDA & NPAT CAGR of 10% & 15% over FY26-30e.

The HY26 result confirmed that AGL's battery portfolio is performing well ahead of its own expectations & reiterated that batteries can sustain post tax unlevered asset returns at the upper end of its 7-11% target range—despite accelerating growth in both utility scale & residential battery installs.

AGL again increased its planned devpt pipeline pushing leverage higher. We maintain some comfort that AGL ultimately controls the pace of devpt and is seeking opportunities to efficiently manage its balance sheet.

Let's take a look at what analysts think owners of AGL shares could see in terms of passive income in the coming years.

FY26

The broker UBS is currently projecting that the business could slightly increase its annual payout per share in the 2026 financial year. I think that's attractive because a higher payout is appealing, it suggests rising underlying earnings and that the board are confident about the future.

AGL is expected by UBS to deliver an annual payout of 49 cents per share in FY26, translating into a grossed-up dividend yield of 6.7%, including franking credits, at the time of writing.

FY27

The payout could rise again for shareholders in the 2027 financial year to a forecast annual dividend of 54 cents per share, which would be a year over year rise of 10%.

FY28

The 2028 financial year could see the dividend take a step backwards, according to UBS, with the projected profit also expected to reduce in that year.

The annual dividend per share for owners of AGL shares is expected to reduce to 47 cents in FY28.

FY29

The 2029 financial year could see the business deliver a much stronger payout of 57 cents per share, which would be pleasing for shareholders to see biggest payout in quite a few years.

FY30

The last year of this series of projections could be the best of all for dividend income.

UBS projects that AGL could pay an annual dividend per share of 84 cents in FY30. That would translate into a grossed-up dividend yield of 11.5%, including franking credits, at the time of writing.

This projected payout would represent growth of 71% between the projected payouts of FY26 and FY30.

UBS currently has a buy rating on AGL shares, with a price target of $11.

The post Here's the dividend forecast out to 2030 for AGL shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

When one analyst thinks a business is a buy, that's interesting. When there are numerous experts rating an ASX share as a buy, that could signal there's a clear, compelling opportunity. Time will tell if they're right.

Let's look at two, non-tech companies.

Amcor (ASX: AMC)

According to the Commsec's collation of analyst views on the flexible and rigid packaging ASX share, there are currently 18 buy ratings.

UBS is one of the brokers that rate the business as a buy, with a price target of $91.25, suggesting a pleasing double-digit rise over the next year from where it is today.

The broker said that the earnings per share (EPS) generated in its FY26 second quarter was "reasonable" and at the midpoint of its guidance, while being 3% ahead of market expectations.

UBS noted that company is still expecting FY26 EPS to growth of between 12% to 17%, with the market assuming the company will hit the low end of this guidance.

The broker also highlighted that the business provided third-quarter EPS guidance of between 90 cents to $1, with confidence of delivering synergies of at least $260 million in FY26 and $650 million over three years. Growth synergies also appear to be "gaining momentum" as well, with a run-rate $100 million of annualised sales secured so far.

UBS then explained why it rates the business as an appealing buy:

We maintain our Buy rating, with Amcor offering a 12% 3yr EPS CAGR, underpinned by the potential delivery of $650mn in synergies and accretion on the all-stock merger with Berry.

We think potential EPS upgrade momentum could be supported by accelerated synergy realisation over the next 24 months. We believe Amcor's revised capital allocation framework also positions the company to allocate increased FCF [free cash flow] to support deleveraging, investment in higher growth categories and potential capital returns (ie, share buy backs).

Delivery on these should support a P/E re-rate from 11x to 15x, which is where the stock has typically traded when offering double-digit EPS growth.

AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL)

According to the Commsec collation of analyst views on the ASX share, there are currently nine buy ratings on the ASX share.

UBS is one of those brokers that rates this energy retailer and generator as a buy, with a price target of $11.00.

The broker noted that AGL's underlying operating profit (EBITDA) and net profit were 7% and 21% ahead of market expectations, respectively, supported by strong realised gas retail pricing and generation available.

UBS noted that AGL expects volatility to prevail in the long-term and owning low-cost capacity assets with some operating flexibility to capture a greater share of higher price periods (such as AGL's Loy Yang A and Bayswater power stations) place AGL "in a strong position to grow underlying EBITDA" year-over-year to 2030, as long as generation availability is maintained.

The broker forecasts UBS will grow EBITDA at a CAGR of 10% and net profit at a CAGR of 15% between FY26 to FY30, which is more than other market analysts are suggesting.

UBS also said that the recent result confirmed that AGL's battery portfolio is "performing well ahead of its own expectations & reiterated that batteries can sustain post tax unlevered asset returns at the upper end of its 7-11% target range—despite accelerating growth in both utility scale & residential battery installs."

Then UBS added to its explanation why it thinks the ASX share is attractive:

Over time as the market builds confidence that low cost capacity assets will become increasingly valuable, we believe market estimates should reflect multi-yr EPS upgrades supporting a growing div profile with upside pending the Board's willingness to reward shareholders with stronger payouts.

The post 2 ASX shares highly recommended to buy: Experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lifted above 9,000 points for the first time in three-and-a-half months last week.

The benchmark index reached an intraday peak of 9,105 points on Thursday.

That was just 10 points shy of the all-time record of 9,115.2 points reached on 21 October.

Strong results from major companies, including Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), and ASX 200 gold miner Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), contributed to an overall 2.4% lift for the ASX 200 last week.

The ASX 200 closed at 8,917.6 points on Friday.

CBA's 6% lift in cash profits to $5.45 billion for 1H FY26 saw the bank retake the ASX 200's No. 1 spot from BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).

BHP shares reclaimed the title last month after CBA took it from the miner in July 2024 during an extraordinary share price run.

Seven of the 11 market sectors finished in the green last week.

The worst performing sector was healthcare, down 12.61%, after investors hammered three of the sector's giants.

Shares in CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL), Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH), and Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME) fell dramatically on their 1H FY26 reports.

Let's recap.

Utilities shares led the ASX sectors last week

There are only 21 companies in the ASX 200 utilities sector.

Let's look at the performance of the five largest players by market capitalisation last week.

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) shares streaked 10.72% higher to finish the week at $12.08.

The electricity and gas provider reported an underlying profit of $593 million for 1H FY26, down from $924 million in 1H FY25.

Origin announced a fully franked interim dividend of 30 cents per share.

The APA Group (ASX: APA) share price rose 3.89% to $9.07 ahead of the company's earnings release next Thursday.

Mercury NZ Ltd (ASX: MCY) shares fell 2.72% to $5.36 apiece.

The AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL) share price skyrocketed 16.42% to close at $10.42 on Friday.

AGL reported an underlying profit of $353 million for 1H FY26, down 6% on 1H FY25.

The energy retailer will pay a fully franked interim dividend of 24 cents per share.

The Meridian Energy Ltd (ASX: MEZ) share price rose 1.87% to $4.91.

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

Which ASX 200 shares will be on watch next week?

On Monday, JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH) and Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) will release their earnings reports.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) will release its 1H FY26 report on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Lottery Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLC) will report.

Thursday will be a big day, with four ASX 200 sector leaders releasing their results.

They are Goodman Group (ASX: GMG), Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS), Transurban Group (ASX: TCL), and Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES).

We'll also hear from ZIP Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP), HUB24 Ltd (ASX: HUB), and PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) on Thursday.

On Friday, Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) and Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1) will reveal their numbers.

As for dividends, you can check out which ASX 200 shares go ex-dividend next week here.

The post Utilities outperform as ASX 200 ascends to a 3-month high appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

One this week's outperforming companies is a national energy provider, one develops and manages data centres, and the third produces building materials.

Which fast-rising stocks am I talking about?

Read on!

ASX 200 stocks leaping higher this week

The first outperforming ASX 200 stock on my list for the week is NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT).

Shares in the data centre operator and developer closed last Friday trading for $12.71. At time of writing, shares are changing hands for $14.28 each. This sees the NextDC share price up 12.4% for the week.

There was no fresh news out from the company this week. But NextDC shares look to have benefited from a broader rebound in US and Aussie tech stocks, following the sharp sell-off last week.

Moving on to the second fast-rising ASX 200 stock this week we have AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL).

Shares in the Aussie energy provider closed last week trading for $8.95. Shares are currently trading for $10.16 each. This puts the AGL share price up 13.6% for the week.

Most of those gains were delivered on Wednesday. AGL shares closed up 11.8% on the day following the release of the company's half year results (H1 FY 2026).

AGL reported underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $1.09 billion for the six months, in line with H1 FY 2025.

While underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) was down 6% year on year to $353 million, management fine-tuned their FY 2026 underlying EBITDA guidance to the range of $2.02 billion to $2.18 billion. Full year NPAT guidance was narrowed to $580 million to $680 million.

Management also declared a fully franked interim dividend of 24 cents per share, up 4.3% from last year's interim payout. AGL shares trade on a fully franked 4.8% dividend yield.

Which brings us to…

Also racing higher

James Hardie Industries PLC (ASX: JHX) shares also raced ahead of the benchmark this week.

Shares in the building materials company closed last week trading for $32.46 and are currently swapping hands for $36.68. That sees this ASX 200 stock up 13.1% for the week.

James Hardie shares closed up 11.8% on Wednesday following the release of the company's third quarter results.

Highlights included a 30% increase in net sales for the three months to US$1.24 billion.

Adjusted EBITDA of US$330 million was up 26%.

The post 3 ASX 200 stocks smashing the benchmark this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.