It was a rough return for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and many ASX shares to trading this Tuesday following the long weekend break.

After closing the trading week on a bit of a sour note last Friday, investors didn't lose their cold feet over the weekend. The ASX 200 did recover a little from a sharp plunge at market open this morning, but still closed 0.24% down for the day. That leaves the index at 8,604.2 points.

This miserly start to the short trading week follows a mixed start to the American trading week on Wall Street last night.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) wasn't in a great Monday mood, falling 0.16%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) fared much better, though, advancing a confident 0.86%.

But let's get back to the local markets now and take stock of how the various ASX sectors fared amid today's tough trading conditions.

Winners and losers

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

After bouncing around quite a bit in red territory this session, the ASX 200 ended up closing 0.39% lower by the time trading wrapped up today. That leaves the index at 8,583.4 points.

This rather gloomy start to the Australian trading week follows a similarly bearish end to the American trading week on Saturday morning (our time).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) gave up an early lead to finish down 0.26%.

Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) was hit even harder, falling 0.93%.

But let's get back to this week and the local markets now for a checkup on how today's tough trading conditions affected the different ASX sectors this session.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Helia shares dropped 19.1% to $4.70 in early trading, a dramatic decline on yesterday's closing value of $5.81.

What's going on with this ASX 200 financial share today?

Helia share price dives as broader market recovers

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is rebounding on Tuesday after an approximate $90 billion wipeout yesterday.

The ASX 200 fell 3.2% after a 25% surge in the Brent oil price to nearly $120 per barrel as the war in Iran continued.

The market is recovering today after US President Donald Trump said it may all be over shortly, and the oil price retreated to US$89.

But today's rising tide is not lifting all boats — least of all the Helia share price, which is the biggest faller of the ASX 200 this morning.

But there's a simple reason for the decline.

What's driving this share price crash?

It's ex-dividend day.

It's typical for a company's share price to fall on ex-dividend day because the stock is no longer trading with the next payment attached.

That means it's fundamentally less valuable.

Earnings season ended on 28 February, and Helia is among 32 ASX shares with ex-dividend dates this week.

Helia will pay a final fully franked dividend of 16 cents per share plus a partially franked special dividend of 67 cents per share for FY25.

Pay day is 26 March.

The Helia share price closed at $5.81 yesterday.

Based on that price, the next dividend represents a whopping 14% dividend yield before the impact of franking is added on top.

So it's not surprising to see the Helia share price dive today. That juicy dividend payout is no longer attached to Helia stock.

Re-cap on FY25 results

Last month, the mortgage insurer reported statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) of $244.9 million for FY25, up 5.8% on FY24.

On an underlying basis, net profit rose 12% to $247 million. Underlying diluted earnings per share (EPS) lifted 18% to 89.9 cents.

Underlying return on equity improved to 23.5%.

Helia ended FY25 with a prescribed capital amount coverage ratio of 2.03x, which is higher than the required regulatory minimums.

The strong balance sheet, a reduction in costs, and growth in premiums enabled the board to declare a big dividend this time around.

The company said:

Dividends in respect of the FY25 financial year total $343 million and are comprised of a 100% payout of FY25 Statutory NPAT and a reduction of approximately $100 million in the Company's capital base.

Helia targets a stable fully franked ordinary dividend and continues to explore options to return excess capital in an efficient and effective manner to shareholders.

The post Why did the Helia share price just crash 19%? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

For you to be entitled to a stock's next dividend, you must own it before its ex-dividend date.

Here are some of the ASX shares going ex-dividend next week.

ASX shares with ex-dividend dates next week

The post 32 ASX shares about to go ex-dividend appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This happy hump day for ASX investors comes after a decent morning up on the American markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) had a fantastic time of it, rising 0.76%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) did open better though, gaining a rosy 1.04%.

But let's get back to ASX shares now and check out how the various ASX sectors benefited from today's unbridled optimism.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In mid-morning trade, Helia shares are up 15.71% to $6.225. By comparison, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is 0.9% higher.

Here is what the company reported for the year ended 31 December 2025.

Profit edges higher as claims remain contained

Helia delivered statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) of $244.9 million for FY25. This was up 5.8% compared to the prior year.

On an underlying basis, net profit rose 12% to $247 million. Underlying diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased 18% to 89.9 cents.

The company said favourable claims experience helped support earnings. Gross loss ratios remained well below long-term averages, while delinquency rates declined during the year.

Insurance revenue fell 5% compared to FY24, reflecting lower gross written premium from recent book years. However, gross written premium for FY25 increased 23% to $240 million.

The company also noted that new insurance written increased during the year, supported by solid housing credit growth and continued lender demand for lenders mortgage insurance.

Underlying return on equity improved to 23.5%.

Capital position supports large dividend

A major focus for investors was Helia's capital management.

The company ended the year with a prescribed capital amount coverage ratio of 2.03 times, representing a strong buffer above regulatory minimum requirements.

Helia declared a fully-franked final dividend of 16 cents per share. It also announced a special dividend of 67 cents per share. In total, shareholders will receive 83 cents on 26 March.

Total dividends for FY25 came to 126 cents per share. The company said FY25 dividends represent a 100% payout of statutory NPAT, alongside a reduction of approximately $100 million in its capital base.

Balance sheet and investment trends

Net investment revenue declined 17% over the year due to a smaller investment portfolio and unrealised losses in the second half.

Insurance contract liabilities fell 5% during the half year, reflecting favourable claims experience and changes in the reserving basis.

Net tangible assets per share finished the year at $3.71.

What about FY26?

Looking ahead, Helia expects FY26 insurance revenue to be between $320 million and $370 million.

Management also expects the total incurred claims ratio to remain well below long cycle average levels.

Overall, Helia delivered modest profit growth, maintained favourable claims performance, and returned significant capital to shareholders.

The sizeable special dividend and strong capital position appear to be key reasons the Helia share price is moving higher today.

The post Helia shares rocket 15% on full-year results. Here's why appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

But there are some ASX shares which are tipped to travel in the other direction, with analysts tipping downsides of 30% (or more) over the next 12 months.

Helia Group Ltd (ASX: HLI)

Helia shares closed higher on Wednesday afternoon, up 3.05% to $5.75 a piece. The share price is now 3.6% higher for the year-to-date and 15.23% higher over the year, albeit with significant peaks and troughs along the way.

Analysts are bearish on the ASX stock, with many tipping more volatility ahead for the currently-overpriced stock. Analysts have a consensus sell position on Helia shares, with a target price of $3.95 a piece. That implies a 31.30% downside at the time of writing. 

Dominos Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP)

Domino's shares closed 1.6% higher on Wednesday afternoon at $21.60 a piece. It's positive news for investors after the share price plunged 8% earlier last week following news of a leadership shakeup. 

Last Wednesday, the company announced it had appointed Andrew Gregory as its incoming Group Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director.

The news has come right before the pizza chain is due to report its half-year result, which is due on 25 February 2026.

For the year-to-date, Domino's shares are down 1.01%, and 33.92% below where they were this time last year.

Analysts are split on where the shares could travel from here. TradingView data shows that out of 17 analysts, six have a hold rating. Another five have a buy or strong buy rating, and six have a sell or strong sell position. 

The average target price is $20.89, which implies a 3.29% downside at the time of writing. But then some analysts think the shares could sink even further to just $13.00 a piece. That implies a 39.81% downside from the share price at the close of the ASX on Wednesday.

Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE)

At the close of the ASX on Wednesday, Boss Energy shares were 3.45% higher for the day at $1.65 a piece. The hike means the shares are now 5.1% higher for the year-to-date but a whopping 46.08% below just one year ago.

The Uranium miner is heavily reliant on uranium prices, which skyrocketed in mid-January before crashing back down to normalised levels earlier this month after a fresh increase in global supply momentarily outweighed the view of soaring growing demand expectations that carried prices in recent quarters, Trading Economics explained. 

While analyst sentiment about the outlook of the stock is mixed, the majority of experts have a bearish stance. TradingView data shows that out of 16 analysts, seven have a sell or strong sell rating. Another five have a hold rating and four have a strong buy rating. 

The average target price is $1.725 per share, which implies a 4.55% upside at the time of writing. But the more bearish analysts think the shares could sink 39.39% to just $1 within the next 12 months. 

The post 3 ASX shares tipped to fall more than 30% in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

While the index rebounded yesterday, there are still some ASX 200 stocks I'm going to steer clear of next week.

Droneshield Limited (ASX: DRO)

It's been a big week for the AI-drone operator. Yesterday, its shares closed 4.06% lower at $1.89 a piece. The latest decline marks a nearly 60% decline over the past month wiping a big chunk of the company's impressive annual gains. Thankfully the shares are still trading nearly 160% higher than this time last year.

I still believe that the sharp sell-off of Droneshield shares is more about investor sentiment than a risk of overpricing or issues with the core business. The company also has robust growth plans ahead. But this week's flurry of company announcements, I'm staying clear until the dust has settled.

In a short statement to the ASX on Wednesday morning, the company said Matt McCrann, who joined the company in 2019 and who had been the US CEO since 2022, "has resigned from the business, effective immediately". There was no explanation for his departure.

The company also responded to an ASX Aware Letter this week. Droneshield was asked to explain recent share sales and the accidental release, and retraction, of a $7.6 million contract mistakenly announced as new.  

Helia Group Ltd (ASX: HLI)

The Helia share price closed 0.17% lower on Thursday afternoon, to $5.86. Over the past month the shares have climbed 5.59% and over the year they're now an impressive 34.10% higher. 

But, in a note to investors yesterday, analysts at Macquarie said they think the stock is about to start nosediving. The broker confirmed its underperform rating on Helia shares and reduced its target price to $3.95 per share. At the time of writing, this implies around 32% downside for investors over the next 12 months. 

"While conditions are supportive near-term, at current valuations (~1.6x P/NTA), investors are both overpaying for the potential of capital returns, and have priced in favourable conditions indefinitely. Maintain Underperform," the broker said.

New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC)

New Hope finished 0.5% lower yesterday to close at $4.02. The shares have climbed 3.61% over the past month but it's not enough to make up for the 15.19% slump over the year. 

The latest decline follows the Australian thermal coal miner's quarterly production and earnings update earlier this week. New Hope achieved a 7.1% increase in saleable coal production and a 15.5% rise in underlying EBITDA, with coal sales and prices also improving. But the results were lower than market expectations. Analysts weren't pleased that the ASX 200 miner missed FY26 guidance. 

Analysts overall seem divided about the stock. Ratings are split between buys, holds and strong sells and the average target price is $3.87, which represents nearly 4% downside for investors, according to Tradingview data at the time of writing.

The post 3 ASX 200 shares I'm avoiding next week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The index appears determined to continue its downward trend amid weak earnings expectations, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and growing concerns about uncertainty surrounding rate cuts. However, analysts think this might be a short-term market pullback rather than a significant correction.

But there are some shares that aren't expected to perform particularly well over the next 12 months.

In a recent note to investors, analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have raised concerns about one ASX 200 stock it thinks will plunge in the next 12 months.

Helia shares tipped to drop

At the time of writing, Helia Group Ltd (ASX: HLI) shares are trading 0.51% lower for the day at $5.85 a piece. Over the past month, its share price has increased by 6.36%, and over the year, it's 32.05% higher.

But Macquarie thinks the shares are about to start diving.

In the note, the broker confirmed its underperform rating on Helia shares and reduced its target price to $3.95 per share. At the time of writing, this implies a huge 32.5% downside for investors over the next 12 months.

"Valuation: We reduce the valuation to $3.95/share (from $4.10/share), driven by our dividend discount model as we slow down capital returns," the broker said in its note.

"While conditions are supportive near-term, at current valuations (~1.6x P/NTA), investors are both overpaying for the potential of capital returns, and have priced in favourable conditions indefinitely. Maintain Underperform."

"Earnings changes: We raise EPS by +5%/+2%/+3% in FY25-27E, as we lower claims to reflect the 3Q25 trading update and mark-to-market of the yield curves, but there are minor downgrades in outer years as we bring forward reserve releases," Macquarie said.

What else did the broker have to say about the ASX 200 stock?

Macquarie said that Helia continues to deliver large negative claims, which have been driven by reserve releases. It explained that while macro conditions support this, the company's claims reserves have decreased significantly, and has brought forward earnings. 

"We forecast the liability for incurred claims (LIC) at FY25 to close at ~$200m (vs ~$270m in FY24). Further negative claims in the near-term is possible, but as the claims reserve decreases, the scope for large reserve releases to continue indefinitely is unlikely. Even with favourable assumptions, reserving on new delinquencies will begin offsetting the reduction in claims reserves on the "back book". This underpins our view of normalising claims," the broker said.

The broker added that cutting costs is not enough to offset long-term revenue headwinds.

"Our earlier analysis suggested that even with aggressive capital returns and under a run-off scenario, we arrive at a valuation of $5/share (pre-dividends). With HLI announcing its intention to continue writing LMI and hence require capital, we pare back the speed of capital returns, and downgrade our DDM valuation despite earnings upgrades."

The post Guess which ASX 200 stock is tipped to plummet 32%? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In the earnings season wash-up, analysts have been busy re-rating ASX All Ords shares following the latest round of financial reports.

Here are five ASX All Ords shares that got slapped with consensus strong sell or moderate sell ratings last month.

These ratings represent the cumulative opinion of several analysts on the CommSec trading platform.

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

The Evolution Mining share price is $9.03, up 0.3% on Friday.

The ASX gold share has lifted 129% over the past 12 months.

On the Commsec platform, Evolution Mining got a consensus moderate sell rating last month.

During earnings season, Evolution reported a record net statutory profit of $926 million, up 119%, for FY25.

Macquarie is among the brokers with a sell rating on this ASX gold share.

It has an underperform rating on Evolution shares with a 12-month price target of $7.

Reece Ltd (ASX: REH)

The Reece share price is $10.52, up 2.8% on Friday.

This ASX All Ords industrial share has fallen 60% over the past year.

CommSec analysts have a consensus moderate sell rating on Reece stock.

Reece shares were among 11 ASX stocks that experienced the biggest price drops after their financial result last month.

The bathroom products retailer reported FY25 revenue of $8.98 billion, down 1%, and a net profit after tax of $317 million.

The ASX industrial share fell 22.6% within two days of the report's release.

Morgans downgraded Reece shares from a hold to a trim rating with a reduced price target of $11.10.

The broker said:

… the outlook remains uncertain in both ANZ and the US as the company deals with a soft housing market, cost inflation, and increased competitive threats.

Management anticipates a slow recovery in ANZ with a period of soft activity still to play out.

In the US, the housing market is expected to be constrained for the next 12-18 months driven by persistently high mortgage rates and affordability challenges.

Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR)

The Liontown share price is 92 cents, up 3.6% on Friday.

The ASX All Ords lithium share has risen 46% over the past 12 months.

CommSec analysts have a consensus moderate sell rating on Liontown shares.

Liontown recently conducted a $266 million capital raise at 73 cents per share to strengthen its balance sheet.

Last week, Liontown completed the associated share purchase plan (SPP).

The SPP, which targeted $20 million, was oversubscribed and closed early. The company raised $56 million via the SPP.

You can check out the lithium miner's latest quarterly report here.

Sims Limited (ASX: SGM)

The Sims share price is $13.92, down 0.6% on Friday.

The ASX All Ords materials share has lifted 29% over the past year.

CommSec analysts have a consensus moderate sell rating on the metal and electronics recycling company.

You can review the company's FY25 results here.

Helia Group Ltd (ASX: HLI)

The Helia share price is $5.72, down 0.2% on Friday.

The ASX All Ords financial share has lifted 46% over the past year.

CommSec analysts have a consensus strong sell rating on the lenders' mortgage insurer.

Macquarie is among the analysts who are pessimistic on the outlook for Helia shares.

The broker has an underperform rating on the financial stock with a price target of $4.10.

The Federal Government recently announced it will start the new version of its Home Guarantee Scheme (HGS) earlier than planned.

The HGS allows eligible buyers to purchase a home with a 5% deposit without paying lenders' mortgage insurance (LMI).

Major banks and lending institutions typically charge tens of thousands in LMI when a home buyer has less than a 20% deposit.

Under the new rules, the HGS will be uncapped and therefore available to all Australians, regardless of their income.

The purchase price caps are also being raised in line with higher property prices.

Check out Helia's latest financial report here.

The post 5 ASX All Ords shares just slapped with sell ratings appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The company engages in the provision of lenders mortgage insurance. It is also involved in the residential mortgage policy development with the lending institutions, local and international regulators and government and industry bodies.

Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI) in Australia is insurance that protects the lender (not the borrower) in case the borrower can't repay their home loan.

It is usually required when a borrower has a deposit of less than 20% of the property's value.

Earnings results

Helia today reported its financial results for the half year ended 30 June 2025 (1H25). 

According to the report, statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) was up 38% on the prior corresponding period (pcp) to $133.7 million. Underlying NPAT was up 18% on pcp to $126.1 million.

The Helia Board has declared a fully franked interim ordinary dividend of 16.0 cents per share. The company also declared and an unfranked interim special dividend of 27.0 cents per share. 

Helia Interim Chief Executive Officer, Mr Michael Cant, said the strong financial performance and capital position continue to provide the strength and security to support our customers, while rewarding our shareholders.

In 1H25, the Company helped over 13,000 Australians achieve home ownership, continuing the crucial role that Helia has played for first home buyers, upgraders and property investors since 1965.

This dividend stock rose 1.78% on the back of this earnings news.

Outlook and FY25 guidance

The company also released FY26 guidance. 

According to the company, FY25 Insurance revenue is expected to be within a range of $350 million to $390 million. The previous guidance was $310 million to $390 million.

FY25 total incurred claims are expected to be negative and remain well below Helia's historical experience of a through the cycle total incurred claims ratio of approximately 30%.

The company said while the 1H25 financial results were strong, it is facing challenges on the outlook for new business.

The Federal Government announced a proposed expansion of the Home Guarantee Scheme (HGS). The company said this is likely to result in the vast majority of owner occupier First Home Buyers (FHB) using the HGS from FY26. 

This expansion is on top of the significant impact that the HGS has already had on the LMI industry. FHB represented 25-30% of Helia's GWP in 1H25.

The Company believes that these policy changes are unlikely to sustainably improve levels of home ownership for FHB and introduce risks to Government finances and the stability of the Australian financial sector.

The post How did the market react to this dividend stock's earnings results? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Meanwhile, the brokers have downgraded several ASX All Ords shares to moderate sell ratings.

Some of these ratings are based on valuation. The experts think these shares have gone up too much — beyond their fundamental worth.

Other downgrades are based on company-specific issues.

Sell 'em, say the experts

Here are 8 ASX All Ords shares downgraded over the past month by analysts on the CommSec platform.

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

The Evolution Mining share price is $7.21, down 0.35% on Tuesday.

This ASX All Ords large-cap was among 17 shares that soared 100% or more in FY25.

The gold stock has lifted 83% over the past 12 months.

CommSec analysts have a consensus moderate sell rating on Evolution Mining.

Morgans put a trim rating on Evolution shares last month after the miner released its quarterly report and an exploration update.

Computershare Ltd (ASX: CPU)

The Computershare share price is $40.15, down 0.94%.

This ASX All Ords industrial share has risen 59% over the past year.

CommSec analysts have a consensus moderate sell rating on the administrative services company.

Damien Nguyen from Morgans is among the analysts with a sell rating on Computershare.

Nguyen explains:

As we anticipate moving into a lower interest rate environment, earnings growth may come under pressure as its margin income shrinks on client cash balances.

We suggest existing investors who have done well out of CPU to consider selling and rotating into stocks with stronger upside potential.

Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR)

The Liontown share price is 84 cents, up 1.2% on Tuesday.

The ASX All Ords lithium share has fallen 3.5% over the past 12 months.

CommSec analysts have a consensus moderate sell rating on Liontown.

After reviewing the miner's quarterly update released last week, Morgans kept its sell rating in place.

The broker lifted its 12-month price target to 56 cents, which is well below today's share price.

Helia Group Ltd (ASX: HLI)

The Helia share price is $5.11, up 0.69% on Tuesday.

The ASX All Ords financial share has lifted 38% over the past year.

CommSec analysts have a consensus moderate sell rating on the lenders' mortgage insurer.

Objective Corporation Ltd (ASX: OCL)

The Objective Corporation share price is $19.40 per share, up 1.8%.

The ASX All Ords technology share has risen 55% over the past 12 months.

CommSec analysts have a consensus moderate sell rating on the sports analytics company.

Cettire Ltd (ASX: CTT)

The Cettire share price is steady at 28 cents at the time of writing.

This ASX All Ords consumer discretionary share is down 78% over the past year.

CommSec analysts have a consensus moderate sell rating on the online luxury fashion retailer.

Last week, Cettire shares plummeted after the US announced the end of the de minimis exemption from 29 August.

The Star Entertainment Group Ltd (ASX: SGR)

The Star Entertainment share price is 8.3 cents per share, down 2.35% on Tuesday.

The ASX consumer discretionary stock has fallen 84% over the past 12 months.

CommSec analysts have a consensus moderate sell rating on the casino operator.

Last Friday, the Star Entertainment share price weakened on news that its sale of the Queen's Wharf precinct is off.

Centuria Office REIT (ASX: COF)

The Centuria Office REIT share price is $1.26, up 0.8% on Tuesday.

The ASX All Ords real estate investment trust (REIT) has lifted 3% over the past year.

CommSec analysts have a consensus moderate sell rating on the commercial property owner.

The post 8 ASX All Ords shares just downgraded to a sell rating by experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lenders mortgage insurance (LMI) provider closed yesterday trading for $4.31. As we head into the Thursday lunch hour, shares are swapping hands for $4.34 apiece, up 0.7%.

Still, Helia shares have a long way to go before recouping their closing highs of $6.15 apiece, posted on 3 March.

We'll take a look at what the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) expect from the ASX 200 insurer for the year ahead below.

But first…

Why did ASX investors dump Helia shares yesterday?

Helia shares came under heavy selling pressure yesterday after the company announced that ING Bank (Australia) would not be renewing its LMI supply and service contract.

While the ING contract runs through to 30 June 2026, the bank has the right to terminate it with just three months' notice.

ASX investors will have noted that the ING contract represents around 17% of Helia's 2024 Gross Written Premium (GWP).

And this news came just three months after Helia reported (in late March) that it did not expect Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) to renew its contract when that expires at the end of December this year.

However, the impact from the loss of the ING contract won't be felt immediately.

According to Helia:

The financial impact of ceasing to write new business from ING will emerge gradually over time and the absence of new business from ING will likely increase the level of organic capital generation and scope for further capital management activity.

So, how does Macquarie rate Helia shares now?

Is the ASX 200 insurance company now a buy?

In a research report analysing Helia's shares following yesterday's announcement, Macquarie noted. "After recent events, we estimate a third of GWP will remain."

However, the broker added that Helia's "back-book continues to generate capital as claims remain low, and we upgrade to neutral after [Wednesday's] share price reaction."

According to Macquarie:

Notably, the loss of the contract does not impact capital generation on the back-book, which is increasingly what investors are focused on. Claims remain low, and we continue to see opportunities to return capital (we forecast capital returns to FY28). As a result, we no longer see the shares as expensive after [Wednesday's] share price result.

Macquarie upgraded its outlook for Helia's earnings per share (EPS) by 4% in FY 2025, 7% in FY 2026, and 6% in FY 2027. It said the earnings upgrade was "driven by mark-to-market of yield curves, and lower reinsurance costs. We also incorporate extra capital returns over the next few years".

The broker concluded:

Despite question marks on its long-term business outlook, we see continued capital generation and returns in the near-term, underpinned by low claims and falling interest rates supporting house prices.

Macquarie increased its 12-month price target for Helia shares to $3.35, up from the prior $3.25. Despite the boosted target price and upgrade to neutral, that's still some 23% below current levels.

The post After crashing more than 21% yesterday, does Macquarie rate Helia shares a buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here's why they are sinking:

Domino's Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP)

The Domino's Pizza share price is down 26% to $14.97. Investors have been selling this embattled pizza seller's shares after it announced the shock exit of its CEO. After just 8 months in the top job, CEO and managing director, Mark van Dyck, has revealed that he is stepping down. He will be leaving the company before the end of the year. The company's chairman, Jack Cowin, will become executive chair on an interim basis from today. A global search for a new CEO is now underway to find a replacement for Mr van Dyck.

Helia Group Ltd (ASX: HLI)

The Helia Group share price is down 24% to $4.16. Investors have been selling this Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI) provider's shares after it lost another major contract. According to the release, ING Bank (Australia) has informed Helia Group that it has decided to proceed with negotiations with an alternate provider for its LMI requirements. Helia's supply and service contract with ING expires on 30 June 2026 but includes a right for ING to terminate the contract by providing three months' notice. The company notes that the LMI business underwritten under this contract represented approximately 17% of Helia's 2024 Gross Written Premium (GWP).

Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN)

The Qantas share price is down over 3% to $10.40. This morning, the airline operator revealed that it has been the victim of a major cyber attack. While at this stage Qantas doesn't know for sure how much data was stolen, it expects that "it will be significant." Qantas has 6 million customers that have service records in the impacted platform. An initial review has confirmed the data that has been taken includes some customers' names, email addresses, phone numbers, date of births, and Qantas frequent flyer numbers.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

The Zip Co share price is down 5.5% to $3.03. This is despite there being no news out of the buy now pay later provider today. However, it is worth noting that investors in the US were rotating out of tech stocks and into the healthcare sector overnight.

The post Why Domino's, Helia, Qantas, and Zip shares are sinking today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In morning trade, this stock has crashed a massive 28% to a lowly $3.92.

Which ASX 200 share?

The share in question is Helia Group Ltd (ASX: HLI). It is the leading provider of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI) provider formerly known as Genworth Mortgage Insurance.

The company's LMI offer protects lenders if a homeowner defaults on a home loan and the lender is unable to recover the outstanding loan amount from the sale of the secured property.

It also helps borrowers get a home loan with a lower deposit.

Why are its shares crashing?

Investors have been selling down this ASX 200 share after it announced the loss of another major contract.

According to the release, ING Bank (Australia) has informed Helia Group that as part of a Request for Proposal (RFP) process relating to its LMI requirements, ING has decided to proceed with negotiations with an alternate provider.

Helia's supply and service contract with ING expires on 30 June 2026 but includes a right for ING to terminate the contract by providing three months' notice.

This will be a major blow for the ASX 200 share. It notes that the LMI business underwritten under this contract represented approximately 17% of Helia's 2024 Gross Written Premium (GWP).

This is the second major contract it has lost this year. In March, the company revealed that Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) is not expected to renew its contract when it expires at the end of December.

The LMI business underwritten under its CBA contract represented approximately 44% of GWP in FY 2024. This means the loss of 61% of GWP from these two contracts.

What's next?

Helia will continue to generate GWP from ING until the contract is terminated or expires.

In addition, revenue associated with in-force policies will be recognised over the next 15 years in accordance with the timing of insurance revenue recognition.

It also notes that "the financial impact of ceasing to write new business from ING will emerge gradually over time and the absence of new business from ING will likely increase the level of organic capital generation and scope for further capital management activity."

The company then concludes:

The Board has commenced a comprehensive business review. The review will consider the business response to the expected loss of new business from two significant customers and the broader impact of the recently announced changes to the Government's Home Guarantee Scheme for first home buyers on our operating environment.

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