The Origin Energy share price is up 9% in the year to date and up 22.5% over the past 12 months.

Origin Energy produces and sells natural gas and electricity to wholesale and retail customers in Australia and overseas.

This ASX 200 utilities stock has fluctuated in price over the past year.

Origin Energy shares traded at a 52-week low of $9.96 in May 2025 and lifted to an annual high of $13.13 in August 2025.

By early 2026, the stock had experienced a gradual decline back into the high $10 range before regaining some momentum.

During earnings season in February, Origin Energy reported a substantial fall in profit for 1H FY26 compared to 1H FY25.

Statutory profit was $557 million in 1H FY26, down from $1,017 million in 1H FY25.

Underlying profit was $593 million, down from $924 million in 1H FY25.

Origin Energy shares: 3 views

Expert views on this ASX 200 utilities stock are currently mixed.

Jed Richards from Shaw and Partners is buy-rated on Origin shares.

Richards likes the company's attractive income profile and leveraged exposure to Australia's changing energy market.

He commented on The Bull this week:

The company benefits from scale in electricity generation and retailing, while its yield remains appealing in a market still sensitive to income certainty.

That said, regulatory risk and energy price volatility remain key risks.

We see Origin as well placed to balance defensive income characteristics with longer term opportunities tied to the domestic energy transition.

Ord Minnett thinks investors in Origin Energy shares should hang on to them for now.

After reviewing Origin's 1H FY26 report, the broker said:

… we remain cautious on Origin given the headwinds we see – increased capital expenditure to maintain APLNG production, ongoing bad debt problems at Octopus, weaker wholesale electricity pricing, and a likely fall in spot LNG prices – and remain at Hold.

The broker noted that Origin had exceeded its expectations for December-quarter LNG production and revenue, and average realised price.

However, Ord Minnett is concerned about future performance:

The stronger realised pricing in the quarter was likely driven by sales into the spot LNG market, in our view, and raises a question over whether the performance can be repeated in coming quarters considering weak domestic gas demand.

Volumes in Origin's electricity and gas volumes in its energy markets division were weak, with retail volumes stable but business demand falling.

Last week, Ord Minnett reiterated its hold rating but raised its 12-month price target from $11 to $11.10.

Morgan Stanley has a similar price target to Ord Minnett but a sell rating on the stock.

Last week, Morgan Stanley analyst Richard Koh reiterated his sell rating on Origin Energy shares.

Koh also shaved his 12-month price target down from $11.11 to $11.07.

The post Origin Energy shares: Experts argue the case to buy, hold, and sell appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy provider closed on Friday trading for $12.38. During the Monday lunch hour, shares are swapping hands for $12.28 each, down 0.8%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.5% at this same time.

Taking a step back, Origin Energy shares have gained 21.7% over 12 months, handily outpacing the 15.1% one-year gains posted by the benchmark index.

And that doesn't include the 60 cents a share in fully-franked dividends the company has paid eligible stockholders over this time. Origin Energy stock trades on a fully-franked trailing dividend yield of 4.9%.

And looking ahead, Shaw and Partners' Jed Richards forecasts more outperformance to come (courtesy of The Bull).

Here's why.

Should you buy Origin Energy shares today?

"Origin combines an attractive income profile with leveraged exposure to Australia's evolving energy market," Richards said.

Citing the first two reasons he's bullish on Origin Energy shares, Richards said, "The company benefits from scale in electricity generation and retailing, while its yield remains appealing in a market still sensitive to income certainty."

On the risk front, he added, "That said, regulatory risk and energy price volatility remain key risks."

And the third reason you might want to buy the ASX 200 energy stock today relates to Australia's ongoing sustainable energy push.

"We see Origin as well placed to balance defensive income characteristics with longer term opportunities tied to the domestic energy transition," Richards concluded.

What's the latest from the ASX 200 energy stock?

Origin Energy reported its half-year results (H1 FY 2026) on 12 February.

Over the six months, the company noted that higher-than-expected earnings in its Energy Markets segment were offset by lower earnings in its Integrated Gas segment and a lower contribution from Octopus Energy.

This saw a 17.5% year-on-year reduction in underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to $1.589 billion. On the bottom line, underlying profit of $593 million was down 35.8% from H1 FY 2025.

Pleasingly, the ASX 200 energy stock upgraded its full-year underlying Energy Markets EBITDA guidance to between $1.55 billion and $1.75 billion.

"Origin's first half results are solid, allowing an upgrade to full-year guidance for Energy Markets," Origin Energy CEO Frank Calabria said.

Calabria added:

Retail performance continued to strengthen, grid-scale batteries added further portfolio flexibility, gas production was steady, and cost management remained disciplined as commodity prices softened.

Origin Energy shares closed up 3.9% on the day of the results release.

The post 3 reasons to buy Origin Energy shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

To narrow things down, let's see what Shaw and Partners is saying about three big names, courtesy of The Bull.

Are they buys, holds, or sells this week? Let's find out:

AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL)

Shaw and Partners currently rates this energy giant as a hold.

While there are positives, it has concerns over the challenges that AGL Energy faces with respect to asset transitions and evolving policy settings. It explains:

AGL provides exposure to Australia's energy sector during a period of structural change. The company benefits from its scale and essential service positioning, but faces ongoing challenges as it navigates asset transitions and evolving policy settings. Earnings stability has improved, yet execution risk still remains. In our view, AGL warrants a hold rating, balancing its strategic importance against longer term capital requirements.

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG)

Shaw and Partners is far more positive on rival Origin Energy. This week, the broker has put a buy rating on its shares.

It likes the company due to its attractive income profile and exposure to the domestic energy transition. However, it warns that an investment is not without risk. Shaw and Partners said:

Origin combines an attractive income profile with leveraged exposure to Australia's evolving energy market. The company benefits from scale in electricity generation and retailing, while its yield remains appealing in a market still sensitive to income certainty. That said, regulatory risk and energy price volatility remain key risks. We see Origin as well placed to balance defensive income characteristics with longer term opportunities tied to the domestic energy transition.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

Finally, Shaw and Partners rates Woodside shares as a sell this week.

The broker believes investors should be taking advantage of a strong rise in its share price to sell at current levels. It explains:

This energy giant has historically struggled to consistently meet market expectations. While the current commodity environment has supported its share price, we see this as an opportunity to exit. Capital intensity, project execution risk and long dated development timelines remain my concerns.

Investors may want to consider taking advantage of its recent valuation and improved sentiment. The shares rose from $23.59 on January 9 to $35.80 on April 7. The shares were trading at $33.37 on April 9. The shares are also responding to volatile crude oil prices resulting from the Middle East conflict.

The post Buy, hold, sell: AGL, Origin Energy, and Woodside shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The question is, how do you work out what to invest to get the passive income you want.

It's actually more straightforward than you'd think.

For example, let's assume you want to earn $1,000 in passive income every month by investing in ASX shares.

That totals $12,000 per year in dividend payments.

The easy way to work out the investment you need is to divide your annual passive income by the dividend yield.

The tricky part is that the answer varies widely depending on the dividend yield of the ASX shares you'd be buying. 

How much you'd need depending on the ASX share's dividend yield

Here's a breakdown of how much you can expect to invest depending on the dividend yield of the shares.

The average dividend yield on the Australian share market is traditionally around 4%. These are usually blue chip companies and major heavyweights which are considered low-risk but long-growth. For example, major banks like National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) and defensive stocks like Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS).

An investor would need to invest $300,000 into shares with a 4% dividend yield in order to earn a passive income of $1,000 per month (or $12,000 per year).

If the yield is higher, at around 6%, you're looking at a $200,000 investment. These are typically companies with a stronger cash flow, which operate in more cyclical industries, which comes with additional risk. For example, ASX infrastructure shares such as APA Group (ASX: APA) or energy companies like Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG).

Then there's high-yielding companies, which come with even greater risk, and are usually highly cyclical. ASX shares like intellectual property (IP) services company IPH Ltd (ASX: IPH) and media giant Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings Ltd (ASX: NEC) yield around 10%, or even more. You'd only need to invest $120,000 in order to earn $1,000 in passive income.

The catch…

While it can be tempting to buy the shares with the highest yield with the view of lowering the initial investment amount, it's not usually a wise financial decision.

As I mentioned above, the higher the yield, the higher the level of risk. Rather than fast short-term growth, your focus should always be on earning a sustainable passive income over a long period of time.

The post How much would I need to invest in ASX shares to earn $1,000 in passive income every month? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This follows a volatile period for gas markets and shows how quickly sentiment can shift amid the return of geopolitical risks and supply concerns.

Middle East tensions drive price rebound

Gas prices moved higher as tensions increased across key energy-producing regions in the Middle East.

Recent reports point to strikes on important infrastructure linked to Iran and Qatar, including activity near Ras Laffan Industrial City. This site is important because it supports the world's largest LNG export operations.

There have also been developments regarding Iran's South Pars gas field, one of the world's largest gas reserves. On top of that, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, affecting vessel traffic.

The Middle East is a major supplier of LNG, so any disruption to production or shipping can tighten supply and push prices higher.

Storage data adds to the price move

Alongside geopolitical risks, recent US inventory data has also influenced the market.

The US Energy Information Administration reported a storage withdrawal of 38 billion cubic feet in the latest week. This was below expectations of around 42 billion cubic feet.

Even though the draw was smaller than expected, prices still moved higher as supply concerns remained in focus.

Storage levels are relatively comfortable, and US production continues to run near record levels.

Flow-on impact for ASX energy stocks

Rising natural gas prices can affect Australian energy companies, particularly those exposed to electricity generation and wholesale energy markets.

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) shares are currently trading around $11.81, giving the company a market capitalisation of approximately $20.35 billion. Origin has direct exposure to gas through its generation portfolio and LNG-linked operations.

On the other hand, AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL) shares are trading near $9.27, with a market capitalisation of about $6.24 billion. AGL remains one of Australia's largest electricity generators and retailers, with gas playing a key role in its energy mix.

A market driven by risk and volatility

Despite the recent move, natural gas prices remain extremely volatile.

On a monthly basis, natural gas is still up around 8.5%, but it remains down roughly 18.5% over the past year. This highlights ongoing swings in supply, demand, and global risk.

Global energy markets are also adjusting to shifting trade flows. Disruptions to LNG supply, combined with demand from Asia and Europe, continue to influence pricing.

Investors should keep a close eye on global developments and gas price movements.

The post Natural gas jumps 6% overnight. Which ASX gas giants stand to benefit? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

But it's worth remembering that higher yields often mean higher risk. 

Instead, you want to look for ASX dividend shares that give investors a reliable and consistent payout over a long-term period.

Here are three ASX dividend shares, each yielding a decent 5% to 6%, which I think are a great passive-income play.

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG)

From electricity and natural gas to solar and LPG, Origin Energy is a leading energy provider to homes and businesses throughout Australia. 

Energy shares are a great option for passive income because they generate substantial cash flows, especially when energy prices are elevated. This allows them to provide high yields to shareholders. 

Because Origin's assets operate under long-term contracts, often with rising income, it can also be seen as a defensive stock. After all, demand for electricity, gas, solar and LPG is unlikely to decline over the long term. Australians need power, regardless of where we are in the economic cycle.

In the first half of FY26, Origin Energy paid its investors 30 cents per share, fully franked. At the time of writing, its yield is around 5.18%.

Dexus (ASX: DXS)

Dexus is a major Australian property investor, developer, and manager. It has a large, high-grade office portfolio and a smaller industrial portfolio in Australasia. It also manages properties on behalf of third-party investors.

As a real estate investment trust (REIT), Dexus owns a large portfolio of office, industrial, and infrastructure rental assets that generate consistent and predictable income. 

It's this diversity and reliable income that enable Dexus to pay a reliable dividend to its investors. 

Dexus paid an unfranked interim dividend of 19.3 cents per share in February. At the time of writing, the ASX dividend shares yield around 5.76%.

Centuria Industrial REIT (ASX: CIP)

Centuria Industrial REIT is another real estate investment trust, but this one owns around $4 billion in purely industrial properties. These include manufacturing facilities, distribution warehouses, and data centres.

Like Dexus, Centuria Industrial REIT benefits from consistent rental income from its large portfolio of industrial properties in high-demand areas with low vacancy rates and strong rental growth.

Centria Industrial REIT pays dividends to investors quarterly. Its most recent payment was 4.2 cents per share in January, unfranked. It is scheduled to pay another 4.2 cents per unit, unfranked, in April. In FY25, the company paid investors an annual total dividend of 16.32 cents per share. At the time of writing, Centuria Industrial REIT's dividends yield around 5.52%.

The post Passive income investors: These 3 ASX dividend shares pay 5% to 6% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Generating $1,000 per month equates to $12,000 per year in dividend payments. And while it sounds ambitious, it's actually more straightforward than you'd think if you have the right portfolio of shares.

Here's the math 

There is an easy calculation to work it out, but the answer varies significantly depending on the yield of the ASX shares you're buying.

To calculate the investment you need, you can simply divide the annual income by the dividend yield.

For example, a portfolio which averages a 4% dividend yield will need a $300,000 investment in order to earn $12,000 per year (or $1,000 per month) in passive income. 

A 4% yield is typical of major Aussie banks such as ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS), and some other blue chip companies.

If the yield is higher, at around 5%, you're looking at a $240,000 investment.

A 5% yield is typical of stronger-yielding blue chip companies, energy shares or even some retail businesses such as Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) and Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN).

For an average 6% yield, you'll need to commit $200,000. 

These will be your high-yield shares or real estate investment trusts (REITS). For example, Dexus (ASX: DXS) or HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (ASX: HDN).

And if you manage to create a portfolio with an average 8% dividend yield you'd only need to invest $150,000 to see the same passive income. 

But you'd need to buy much higher-risk ASX shares or income trusts like the Metrics Master Income Trust (ASX: MXT) or the BetaShares Australian Dividend Harvester ETF (ASX: HVST).

Can't I just buy shares with the highest yield so I don't need to invest as much?

You could, but it wouldn't be the wisest investment idea. It's true that an 8% yield means you need to invest less to hit your $1,000 per month passive income goal. 

But there is a catch.

Higher yields often mean higher risk. These companies might be unstable or there could be minimal dividend growth. Instead your focus should be on sustainable dividends over a long-term period, not the highest yield available today.

And the ultimate goal is diversification. A balanced and diversified portfolio can give you the best of both worlds. 

The post Passive income: How much would I need to invest in ASX shares to earn $1,000 every month? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Superloop report?

• Over 250,000 Origin broadband subscribers now on the Superloop network (Milestone 4 achieved)
• Triggers share issue obligation based on customer milestones
• Milestone shares priced at the 30-day VWAP at milestone date
• Shares subject to 12-month voluntary lock-up

What else do investors need to know?

Superloop's Origin contract is an exclusive six-year deal to provide wholesale internet services to Origin Energy Retail and its subsidiaries. The deal, secured in March 2024, has enabled Superloop to substantially grow its retail broadband subscriber base.

Each milestone achieved under the Origin contract triggers the issue of Superloop shares, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals. The shares issued for Milestone 4 are locked up for one year, aligning management's interests with long-term performance.

What's next for Superloop?

Looking ahead, Superloop will continue executing on its Origin partnership and remains focused on growing its position as a leading challenger in the Australian broadband market. Reaching Milestone 4 demonstrates progress in scaling its wholesale and retail internet offerings.

The company will seek required approvals to issue the new milestone shares and uphold its obligations under the Origin agreement. Superloop's strategy centres on innovation and customer growth as it leverages its infrastructure and software platforms.

Superloop share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Superloop shares have risen 34%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 9% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Superloop surges past 250,000 Origin connections, triggers next milestone appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall

The Australian share market looks set for a poor start to the week following declines on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 20 points or 0.2% lower. In the United States, the Dow Jones was down 1.05%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.4%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 0.9%.

Oil prices rise

It could be a positive start to the week for ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices pushed higher on Friday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was up 1.8% to US$67.02 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was up 2.9% to US$72.87 a barrel. Since then, the US has launched attacks on Iran, which could lead to higher oil prices when Asian trade begins.

ASX 200 shares going ex-div

A number of ASX 200 shares are going ex-dividend this morning and could trade lower. This includes Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM), Nick Scali Limited (ASX: NCK), Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG), Pinnacle Investment Management Group Ltd (ASX: PNI), and Steadfast Group Ltd (ASX: SDF). Fortescue will be paying shareholders a 62 cents per share dividend at the end of the month.

Gold price pushes higher

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a good start to the week after the gold price jumped on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was up 1% to US$5,247.9 an ounce. The precious metal is likely to rise further once trade begins in response to the war in the middle east.

Buy Coles shares

The team at Bell Potter thinks Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares are in the buy zone this week. In response to its half-year results, the broker has retained its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $22.35. It said: "Continued delivery against 'Simplify & Save' initiatives ($133m delivered in 1H25 and $698m to date vs. a target of $1Bn by FY27e) and generating a return on ADC/CFC investments (~$1.45Bn investment). COL has returned to a discount to WOW, though this is likely warranted given the lower level of forecast growth."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In order to receive a dividend, you must own the ASX share before its ex-dividend date.

Here is a sample of the large number of ASX All Ords shares with ex-dividend dates next week.

ASX All Ords shares about to go ex-dividend

Which companies will we hear from today?

The big one today is the half-yearly report from supermarket network Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL).

Woolworths shares ripped this week after the ASX All Ords consumer staples giant reported a 16% profit lift to $859 million for 1H FY26.

We'll also hear from TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPG), Michael Hill International Ltd (ASX: MHJ), and Pexa Group Ltd (ASX: PXA).

The latest report from The Star Entertainment Group Ltd (ASX: SGR) will also be interesting, as investors seek further news on the turnaround plan for the beleaguered casino operator.

Yesterday, Star Entertainment shares bounced on news of a debt refinancing deal, including extra liquidity to fund the turnaround plan.

The post 35 ASX All Ords shares with ex-dividend dates next week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

You probably know this, but companies that are listed on the ASX are required to lodge their accounts within two months of the end of their half- and full-year accounting periods.

What you may not know is that companies aren't obliged to use the tax- or calendar years – they can pick whatever date they like. They just have to lodge their accounts within two months of that date.

In the event, the vast majority of companies use June 30 and December 31. Most run traditional financial years – July 1 to June 30. Some use calendar years: January 1 to December 31. Either way, their half-year or full-year results are due by the end of February.

And given it usually takes them a month or so to put all of the data (and annoyingly self-promotional 'investor presentations') together, we don't tend to see them start publishing until this month.

And so, February (and August) become 'earnings season' – when almost all ASX companies give us that biannual look under the proverbial bonnet (no, not 'hood', thank you… and get off my lawn!)

And as of Friday, we're halfway through the month. So, what have we learned?

Firstly, investors really, really hate surprises. Like, really.

There have been quite a few large falls of 20% or more when companies released results that weren't in accordance with investor expectations.

Sometimes, that's justified. Other times? Well, short-termism can be the enemy of long-term success. If your investment thesis relies on one six month period being 'just so', then you're playing with fire.

On the other hand, if you are looking at a company's long-term growth prospects, half a lap around the sun is far less consequential.

We're definitely in the latter camp at The Motley Fool. Half-year results can absolutely be milestones, so we don't disregard them, but our focus is clearly on the question: "What does this result say about the 5 and 10 year prospects".

Sometimes, it says a lot. Good or bad. Sequential profit increases from quality companies are lovely. Unexpected losses can be a warning. But sometimes it's the opposite! That's why you have to look at the detail for yourself, rather than using share price movements to try to guess.

The best bit? If other investors overreact to temporary problems, but we think the long-term story is intact, we sometimes get the chance to take advantage of their pessimism and buy at cheap prices!

Second, growth comes from a multitude of places, and knowing which is which is vital when assessing a company's long term prospects.

Compare Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), for example.

CommBank managed to grow profits by 6% by growing its lending and deposit bases, even as margins shrank a little.

ANZ's year-on-year profit growth was the same, but it achieved that result largely by cutting costs.

Which result is better?

In the short term, money spends the same, no matter its source.

In the longer term, you 'can't cut your way to greatness' as the old saw holds.

On this result alone, Commonwealth Bank shareholders should be happier than ANZ's, because the former is on a significantly stronger growth path, which may bode well for the future.

That's not to say ANZ can't find growth from here. Or that the cost-cutting wasn't justified. Just that compound returns tend to be better when a business can deliver on something I tend to look for: 'being more relevant, to more customers, more often'.

Lastly, a perennial one: earnings season really should be called 'expectations season'.

Because share prices don't react to the actual results, but rather how those results compare to the market's 'expectations'.

Take a couple of energy companies: AGL Ltd (ASX: AGL) and Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG). Both companies' profits fell, compared to last year. And the share prices… rose.

Now a couple of retailers, Temple & Webster Ltd (ASX: TPW) and Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK). Both grew revenue strongly. Temple & Webster's profit fell, while Nick Scali's rose. And both companies' share prices… crashed.

Why?

In all four cases because the market expected something different to what the companies delivered.

By the way, don't be sucked into thinking about companies on the basis of their share prices. Sometimes, the movement in the share price tracks the business performance. But less often, in the short term, than you might think.

Too often, you hear 'Oh, XYZ is a great stock'. What those people mean is 'the share price has been going up lately'.

Or, 'ABC is a terrible stock' when they mean the price has been falling.

It's true that the investor returns have been good, and bad, respectively, in each case.

But they're talking about a really abstract issue, here, often without knowing it.

They're not really talking about the company at all – just its share price…

They're comparing two arbitrary points in time…

And they're comparing an average market expectation at those points.

Here's why. Consider a company whose shares fell from $100 per share to $10. That's unquestionably bad for those who paid $100 a share to buy it.

It's had a bad year. But does that make it a 'bad stock'? Only over that timeframe.

Now let's say the shares go from $10 back to $100 and then to $200.

Is it now a 'good stock'? Most would say yes.

But in both cases, all we're really saying is that the crowd loved, then hated, then loved the company again.

Maybe justifiably, based on the company's performance.

Or maybe not.

And here's the thing: it's all in the past anyway.

The only thing that matters is the future. Who cares if it is considered a 'good stock' or a 'bad stock' based on past activity (and past investor sentiment).

Investors hate tech companies at the moment. They loved them a year ago.

We've seen this movie before. The dot.com boom and crash, anyone? Or less remarked upon, the post-COVID tech boom and subsequent fall.

Banks are having a moment in the sun, after going nowhere for a few years, post-COVID.

Looking backward would have been somewhere between useless and expensive, if you'd used only past history to work out when to buy and sell.

So, as you look at the results of the past two weeks, and prepare for the next fortnight, here's a quick list to keep in mind:

Ignore:

– 'Great stocks' and 'bad stocks'

– Sentiment-driven share price moves

– Past share price performance

– Promotional company announcements that seek to selectively direct your attention

Focus on:

– The underlying earnings power of a business

– What the result tells you, if anything, about the long-term future

– The candour of management

– Whether today's price (not last year's price change) is attractive, based on the above

No, it's not always easy to ignore the people yelling 'the sky is falling', or a soaring share price.

But that's exactly what we have to do.

Your returns don't come from 'what just happened', but from 'what happens next'.

Invest accordingly.

Fool on!

The post What have we learned from earnings season so far? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

To narrow things down, let's see what analysts are saying about three popular shares, courtesy of The Bull. Here's what they are recommending:

Orica Ltd (ASX: ORI)

The team at Bell Potter is bullish on this commercial explosives company and has named it as a buy this week.

The broker has been impressed with its transformation and highlights its cyclical leverage and structural growth as reasons to invest. It explains:

Orica is a mining and infrastructure solutions provider. Orica's transformation is gaining traction, with diversified growth across blasting solutions, speciality mining chemicals and digital solutions. Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) of $992 million in fiscal year 2025 were up 23 per cent on the prior corresponding period. The significant rise was underpinned by strong demand for sodium cyanide, increased digital product uptake and solid execution across manufacturing assets. Management has upgraded its medium term EBIT target, and an additional $100 million buy-back program is underway. Orica offers a compelling blend of cyclical leverage and structural growth.

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG)

Over at DP Wealth Advisory, its team has named this energy giant as a hold this week.

While it sees positives, such as its investment in Octopus Energy, it isn't enough for a more bullish recommendation. DP Wealth Advisory said:

This energy provider delivers services to more than 4 million Australian customers. It's also a significant exporter of LNG through its stake in APLNG (Australia Pacific LNG). A positive for Origin is its 22.7 per cent interest in Octopus Energy in the UK and, in particular, the Kraken Technologies platform. A spin-off of Kraken into a stand-alone entity should add value to ORG.

Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME)

Analysts at Fairmont Equities aren't buyers of this health imaging technology company's shares despite their heavy decline. The equities firm has named Pro Medicus shares as a sell this week.

Fairmont Equities appears concerned that the decline could continue if sentiment doesn't improve in the near term. It said:

This medical technology business is one we have successfully traded on several occasions during the past few years. However, since mid-2025, we have stayed away from expensive technology companies, such as PME, due to negative market sentiment. On February 12, 2026, the company announced revenue from ordinary activities of $124.8 million in the first half of 2026, an increase of 28.4 per cent. Underlying net profit of $67.3 million was up 29.7 per cent.

However the share price was severely punished following the result. Perhaps, the result fell short of market expectations. The shares have fallen from $330.48 on July 17, 2025 to trade at  $132.86 on February 12, 2026. The shares may fall further if sentiment doesn't improve.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Orica, Origin Energy, and Pro Medicus shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lifted above 9,000 points for the first time in three-and-a-half months last week.

The benchmark index reached an intraday peak of 9,105 points on Thursday.

That was just 10 points shy of the all-time record of 9,115.2 points reached on 21 October.

Strong results from major companies, including Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), and ASX 200 gold miner Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), contributed to an overall 2.4% lift for the ASX 200 last week.

The ASX 200 closed at 8,917.6 points on Friday.

CBA's 6% lift in cash profits to $5.45 billion for 1H FY26 saw the bank retake the ASX 200's No. 1 spot from BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).

BHP shares reclaimed the title last month after CBA took it from the miner in July 2024 during an extraordinary share price run.

Seven of the 11 market sectors finished in the green last week.

The worst performing sector was healthcare, down 12.61%, after investors hammered three of the sector's giants.

Shares in CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL), Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH), and Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME) fell dramatically on their 1H FY26 reports.

Let's recap.

Utilities shares led the ASX sectors last week

There are only 21 companies in the ASX 200 utilities sector.

Let's look at the performance of the five largest players by market capitalisation last week.

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) shares streaked 10.72% higher to finish the week at $12.08.

The electricity and gas provider reported an underlying profit of $593 million for 1H FY26, down from $924 million in 1H FY25.

Origin announced a fully franked interim dividend of 30 cents per share.

The APA Group (ASX: APA) share price rose 3.89% to $9.07 ahead of the company's earnings release next Thursday.

Mercury NZ Ltd (ASX: MCY) shares fell 2.72% to $5.36 apiece.

The AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL) share price skyrocketed 16.42% to close at $10.42 on Friday.

AGL reported an underlying profit of $353 million for 1H FY26, down 6% on 1H FY25.

The energy retailer will pay a fully franked interim dividend of 24 cents per share.

The Meridian Energy Ltd (ASX: MEZ) share price rose 1.87% to $4.91.

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

Which ASX 200 shares will be on watch next week?

On Monday, JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH) and Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) will release their earnings reports.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) will release its 1H FY26 report on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Lottery Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLC) will report.

Thursday will be a big day, with four ASX 200 sector leaders releasing their results.

They are Goodman Group (ASX: GMG), Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS), Transurban Group (ASX: TCL), and Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES).

We'll also hear from ZIP Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP), HUB24 Ltd (ASX: HUB), and PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) on Thursday.

On Friday, Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) and Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1) will reveal their numbers.

As for dividends, you can check out which ASX 200 shares go ex-dividend next week here.

The post Utilities outperform as ASX 200 ascends to a 3-month high appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are not letting that hold them back are listed below. Here's why they are rising:

AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP)

The AMP share price is up 8% to $1.38. Investors may believe this financial services company's shares were oversold on Thursday following the release of its full-year results. AMP posted a 20.8% increase in underlying net profit after tax to $285 million. However, statutory profit was down 11.3% to $133 million. The team at Ord Minnett saw the heavy decline as a buying opportunity. This morning, it upgraded AMP's shares to a buy rating with a reduced price target of $1.65 (from $2.05).

GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG)

The GQG Partners share price is up 7% to $1.73. This follows the release of the fund manager's full-year results. GQG Partners posted a 6.3% increase in revenue to US$808.3 million and a 7.3% lift in net income to US$463.3 million. This allowed the company to lift its total dividends to 14.69 US cents per share. GQG Partners' CEO, Tim Carver, said: "While we faced some headwinds in 2025, our team achieved several important milestones this year. On the back of a very strong 2024, GQG steadily grew funds under management (FUM) in the first half of 2025, reaching a month-end record high of USD 172.4 billion as of 30 June 2025."

Nextdc Ltd (ASX: NXT)

The Nextdc share price is up 5.5% to $14.26. This may have been driven by news that Google parent, Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG), has raised US$100 billion from a 100-year bond sale to fund its artificial intelligence spending. This level of spending appears to support the view that NextDC's data centres are well-positioned to benefit from growing demand over the next decade and beyond.

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG)

The Origin Energy share price is up a further 3.5% to $11.90. This energy giant's shares have been charging higher this week following the release of its half-year results. Origin Energy reported an underlying profit of $593 million. While this was down from $924 million in the prior corresponding period, it appears to have been better than feared. Another positive was that management upgraded its Energy Markets full-year underlying EBITDA guidance.

The post Why AMP, GQG, NextDC, and Origin Energy shares are racing higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are rising more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are charging higher:

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ)

The ANZ share price is up 8% to $40.41. Investors have been fighting to get hold of the banking giant's shares following the release of its quarterly update. ANZ reported a first-quarter cash profit of $1.94 billion, which was up 75% on the second-half average of FY 2025. ANZ's CEO, Nuno Matos, said: "The quarterly result highlights the early progress we are making in executing our ANZ 2030 strategy. Our productivity program aimed at removing duplication and simplifying the bank is well underway, delivering a significant reduction in expenses while growing revenue. There was an improvement across our key financial metrics, including the return on tangible equity which rose to 11.7% and cost to income ratio to below 50%."

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

The CBA share price is up a further 5% to $177.90. Australia's largest bank's shares have been racing higher this week following the release of the banking giant's half-year results. CBA posted a 6% increase in cash net profit to $5,445 million and lifted its interim dividend by 4% to $2.35 per share. CBA's CEO, Matt Comyn, commented: "Economic growth strengthened during the half, driven by increases in consumer demand and rising investment in AI and energy infrastructure."

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

The Northern Star share price is up 4% to $29.38. This follows the release of the gold miner's half-year results. Northern Star revealed a 49% increase in underlying net profit after tax to $759.8 million. The company's CEO, Stuart Tonkin, said: "This first half result demonstrates the resilience and growing returns we are embedding in our business, which allowed the Board to declare a 25cps interim dividend despite a soft operating performance. Our balance sheet remains in a net cash position notwithstanding the significant investments we are making to transform Northern Star into a lowest-half global cost producer."

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG)

The Origin Energy share price is up 4% to $11.54. Investors have been buying this energy giant's shares following the release of its half-year results. Origin Energy reported an underlying profit of $593 million. While this was down from $924 million in the prior corresponding period, it appears to have been better than feared. In addition, management upgraded its Energy Markets full-year underlying EBITDA guidance.

The post Why ANZ, CBA, Northern Star, and Origin Energy shares are charging higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Origin Energy report?

• Statutory profit of $557 million, down from $1,017 million in HY25
• Underlying profit of $593 million, down from $924 million in HY25
• Underlying EBITDA of $1,589 million, compared to $1,926 million in HY25
• Adjusted free cash flow up to $705 million, from $518 million in HY25
• Interim dividend of 30 cents per share, fully franked
• Adjusted net debt/EBITDA ratio at 2.0x

What else do investors need to know?

Origin's Energy Markets business delivered strong underlying EBITDA of $860 million, up $122 million year on year, thanks to higher electricity gross profit and ongoing cost savings. Customer growth remains healthy, with 96,000 new accounts and churn well below the market average.

In the Integrated Gas segment, underlying EBITDA was $860 million, reflecting lower LNG prices and volumes at Australia Pacific LNG, but production remained steady at 339 PJ. Octopus Energy continued to grow international customer numbers, though the division posted an underlying EBITDA loss as investment ramped up.

What did Origin Energy management say?

Frank Calabria, Chief Executive Officer, said:

Origin's first half results are solid, allowing an upgrade to full-year guidance for Energy Markets. Retail performance continued to strengthen, grid-scale batteries added further portfolio flexibility, gas production was steady, and cost management remained disciplined as commodity prices softened.

What's next for Origin Energy?

Origin has upgraded its Energy Markets full-year underlying EBITDA guidance to between $1,550 million and $1,750 million, with electricity business performance driving the improvement. Cost to serve is also expected to improve, with management on track to achieve targeted savings by FY26.

Investment continues across battery storage, gas infrastructure, and digital platforms, aiming to support the energy transition and deliver steady returns. The company expects capital expenditure of $900–$1,100 million for the year, reflecting expanded investment in new battery projects.

Origin Energy share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Origin Energy shares have risen 8%, slightly outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 6% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Origin Energy posts $557m half-year profit and upgrades guidance appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 set for subdued session

The Australian share market looks set for a subdued session on Thursday following a relatively flat night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 1 point higher this morning. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is down 0.1%, the S&P 500 is up 0.1% and the Nasdaq is flat.

Oil prices rise

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a good session on Thursday after oil prices stormed higher overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 1.45% to US$64.88 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 1.25% to US$69.68 a barrel. Improved demand and US-Iran tensions gave oil prices a boost.

Pro Medicus results

Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME) shares will be on watch today when the health imaging technology company releases its half-year results. As well as its results, the market may be looking for management to ease concerns over AI disruption. Other ASX 200 shares that are releasing results today include Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) and Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG). The market will no doubt be interested to see how the latter is navigating US trade tariffs.

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares such as Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a good session on Thursday after the gold price pushed higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 1.6% to US$5,110.6 an ounce. Traders were buying the precious metal despite the release of strong US jobs data, which could lessen rate cut hopes.

Hold CSL shares

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares remain fully valued according to analysts at Bell Potter. In response to the biotechnology giant's half-year results, the broker has retained its hold rating with a reduced price target of $175.00. It said: "CSL now trades on an underlying PE of 16.5x in FY27, well below its historical average but remains above the global biopharma avg of ~15x. It faces the daunting prospect of hiring a new CEO to re-invigorate a lacklustre growth outlook in the face of headwinds on multiple fronts."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Here, we canvas the views of two experts on three ASX All Ords shares within the consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare sectors.

One is a buy, one is a hold, and one is a sell.

Let's review.

Bubs Australia Ltd (ASX: BUB)

Bubs Australia shares are steady at 13 cents per share on Tuesday.

The share price of this milk producer has risen 8.3% over the past 12 months.

Shaw and Partners has a buy rating on the ASX consumer staples share.

Bubs released its 2Q FY26 quarterly activities report on 30 January.

The company reported 2Q FY26 net revenue of $29.9 million, up 17%, and 1H FY26 net revenue of $55.5 million, up 14.3%.

After reviewing the report, Shaw and Partners lowered its 12-month price forecast from 20 cents to 17 cents per share.

The broker said:

[The] 2Q FY26 quarterly activities report highlighted another strong quarter of sales in the USA, and ongoing inventory issues plus some challenging conditions in Australia, China, and ROW.

The company remains confident of receiving permanent FDA approval and noted the FDA has no further questions on the clinical trial component of its submission at this time.

Conditions in Australia/China/ROW should improve in 2H26.

We have adjusted our BUB forecasts to incorporate the 2H26 quarterly.

Given the expected TSR [total shareholder return] of circa 31%, we rate the stock a BUY. 

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG)

The Origin Energy share price is $11.01, down 1.1% today and up 8.8% over the past 12 months.

In a new note, Ord Minnett maintains a hold rating on this ASX utilities share.

The broker lifted its share price target from $10.80 to $11, implying the stock is fully valued today.

Ord Minnett said:

… we remain cautious on Origin given the headwinds we see – increased capital expenditure to maintain APLNG production, ongoing bad debt problems at Octopus, weaker wholesale electricity pricing, and a likely fall in spot LNG prices – and remain at Hold.

4DMedical Ltd (ASX: 4DX)

4DMedical shares are $3.45 apiece, down 0.4% today.

The respiratory imaging technology company has enjoyed a stunning share price growth of 562% over the past year.

On The Bull this week, Tony Paterno from Ord Minnett explained the broker's sell rating on the rocketing ASX healthcare share.

Paterno said:

In our view, there's a growing disconnect between 4DX's valuation and the uncertainty around near term CT:VQ revenue generation.

While we remain positive on 4DX's technology, we pull back to a sell recommendation on valuation grounds. 

The post Buy, hold, sell: Bubs, Origin Energy, 4D Medical shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.