Today's fall builds on yesterday's 1.77% drop after missile strikes on energy assets in the Middle East caused a spike in oil prices.

ASX All Ords shares have fallen 8.13% since the war began, and the market is now 4% in the red for the year to date (YTD).

Meantime, brokers have named 3 ASX shares with buy recommendations amid all this volatility.

Let's take a look.

Helloworld Travel Ltd (ASX: HLO)

Helloworld Travel shares are steady at $1.44 on Friday, down 23.8% YTD and down 6.5% over 12 months.

Shaw and Partners reiterated its buy rating on this ASX travel share after the Australian Bureau of Statistics released new data.

The broker commented:

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Overseas Arrivals and Departures data for January 2026 bodes well for Helloworld Travel Limited (ASX:HLO) with Departures up 8.4% Financial YTD and the travel destination mix reasonably steady. 

Shaw and Partners kept its 12-month share price target at $2.80.

This implies a potential 94% upside from here.

Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA)

The Bega Cheese share price is down 0.27% to $5.60 at the time of writing.

The ASX consumer staples share is down 7.67% YTD and up 8.6% over the past year.

This month, PAC Partners retained its buy rating and increased its price target by 7% to $7.50 per share.

This implies a potential 34% upside from here.

The broker said:

Bega Cheese Limited's (ASX:BGA) vision of a great Australian food company arrived this year with: a scalable platform #1 and #2 "better for you" brands; #1 Australian cold chain; off-shore leverage; and a 50% lift in dividend in 1H'26.

Starpharma Holdings Ltd (ASX: SPL)

The Starpharma share price is 47 cents, up 1.1% on Friday.

This ASX small-cap share has risen 25.7% YTD and soared 365% over 12 months.

PAC Partners has a buy rating on this ASX healthcare share.

The broker forecasts growth in partnerships and over-the-counter revenue over the next four years.

PAC Partners says it has a "high risk" 12-month price target range of 80 cents to $1 on Starpharma shares.

This suggests a possible minimum capital gain of 70% over the next 12 months.

PAC Partners commented:

Starpharma Holdings Limited (ASX:SPL) will start human clinical trials of its novel radiotherapy drug for a solid cancer target by the end of 2026.

This in-house project opens up SPL dendrimer applications beyond the Genentech, medicxi and RAD.ASX partnered projects.

The post 3 buy-rated ASX shares in today's falling market appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

As reporting season continues on Friday, Morgans has run the ruler over the earnings results of three ASX 200 companies.

Let's take a look.

Transurban Group (ASX: TCL)

The Transurban share price is 3.3% higher at $14.34 on Friday.

Yesterday, Transurban reported a 6.4% lift in proportional operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) to $1,545 million for 1H FY26.

The market's largest industrial sector stock will pay a dividend of 34 cents per share.

Morgans said:

1H26 Operating EBITDA (+6% on pcp) missed Visible Alpha consensus by 3% while Free Cash (+2% on pcp) was in-line (both were below our forecasts).

Changes to FY26-28F EBITDA are immaterial. Free Cash downgraded 1-3% mainly due to higher debt service outlook.

DPS forecast remains in line with DPS guidance for FY26 and for 5% pa growth across FY27-29F (within the 4-6% pa Free Cash growth range of the 2025 management long-term incentive plan).

The broker retained a hold rating on this ASX 200 industrial share with a 1% reduction in its 12-month price target to $13.19.

Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA)

The Bega Cheese share price is up 5.7% to $6.57 at the time of writing.

In earlier trading, the ASX 200 consumer staples share hit a new 52-week high of $6.72.

Yesterday, Bega Cheese reported a 55.3% increase in net profit after tax (NPAT) to $46.9 million for 1H FY26.

Bega Cheese will pay an interim dividend of 7 cents per share.

Morgans said:

Pleasingly, BGA's 1H26 result materially beat expectations given a stronger than expected performance from its Bulk business.

However, the result from its much larger Branded business was solid and would have been even stronger if BGA had more yoghurt capacity to take advantage of the strong demand for protein given health and wellness trends.

Importantly, expansion plans in this area are underway.

FY26 earnings guidance was upgraded. Given its restructuring activity, expansion plans and new product pipeline, we continue to believe that BGA will beat its FY28 EBITDA target of +A$250m. We think A$265m is more likely.

This underpins a strong growth profile across the forecast period.

Morgans has an accumulate rating on the ASX 200 consumer staples share. Its 12-month share price target is $7.10.

APA Group (ASX: APA)

The APA share price is 1.7% higher at $9.16 on Friday.

Yesterday, APA reported a 7.6% lift in underlying EBITDA to $1,092 million, with margins up to 77.3%, for 1H FY26.

Statutory NPAT lifted to $95 million, up from $34 million last year.

The ASX 200 utilities share will pay an interim dividend of 27.5 cents.

Morgans said:

Inflation-linked revenues, a cost-out program and contributions from new assets underpin short-term earnings growth.

Potential return on and of the enlarged growth capex pipeline in a rising interest rate environment will be a key investor focus, as will the headwind of approaching expiry of the WGP earnings in FY35.

Underlying EBITDA upgraded 1-2% across FY26-28F (Vic+NSW), Free Cash Flow +/-4-5% (tax and interest paid), and DPS growth unchanged at +1 cps/yr.

The mid-6% cash yield doesn't compensate for ongoing decline in purchasing power of the DPS and flat equity value outlook.

Morgans has a trim rating on this ASX 200 utilities share with a 12-month price target of $7.96.

The post What is Morgans saying about APA, Bega Cheese, and Transurban shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

If you are, then it could be worth checking out the three ASX 200 shares in this article.

That's because they have been tipped to rise between 20% and 40% by analysts at Bell Potter. Here's what they are recommending:

Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL)

Bell Potter thinks that this gaming technology company's shares could have major upside potential.

This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating on the ASX 200 share with a $70.00 price target (from $80.00). Based on its current share price of $50.33, this implies potential upside of approximately 40% for investors over the next 12 months. It said:

We retain our Buy recommendation. We continue to expect ALL's leading R&D investment will drive market share gains. Top 2 game performance observed in both the core sales and premium gaming ops markets leaves us confident that ALL can grow the install base >4.0k per year and grow global shipments. Further, with leverage standing at 0.2x, ALL has substantial M&A firepower to boost growth inorganically.

Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA)

Another ASX 200 share that Bell Potter expects to rise strongly is diversified food company Bega Cheese. This morning, in response to its half-year results, the broker has retained its buy rating with an improved price target of $7.75 (from $7.00). Based on its current share price of $6.21, this suggests that upside of 25% is possible for investors.

Bell Potter believes the Vegemite owner can achieve its $250 million EBITDA target in 2027. It said:

Our Buy rating is unchanged. BGA's >$250m EBITDA target is in reach and achieved by executing on capital investment and site consolidation initiatives already underway. Trading on a FY26e PE of 26.9x for three-year compound EPS growth of 24% p.a. BGA is a compelling GARP play and one of the few exposures on the ASX leveraged to the growing consumer preference for higher protein formats, through both its branded portfolio and specialised ingredient platform.

Sonic Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SHL)

Finally, this healthcare company's shares could be undervalued according to Bell Potter. It has retained its buy rating on the ASX 200 share with a slightly improved price target of $28.75 (from $28.50). Based on its current share price of $23.34, this implies potential upside of 23%.

Bell Potter was relatively pleased with Sonic Healthcare's half-year results and has lifted its earnings estimates. It said:

We have made modest changes to our earnings estimates across FY26e-FY28e with increases to EPS of 1.7%/1.4%/1.3%. The result is a c.1% upgrade in our TP to $28.75/sh, which represents c.23% upside to the current share price. We expect this result to support investor sentiment, which has struggled in recent times, with the prospect of trading multiples reverting toward long-term averages.

The post These ASX 200 shares could rise 20% to 40% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The company said in a statement to the ASX on Thursday morning that first-half revenue had come in at $1.87 billion, up 5%, while net profit was 55.3% higher at $46.9 million.

Strength across both major divisions

The company said its Branded Products division delivered a normalised EBITDA of $112.5 million, up 8%.

The company added:

Bega Group fuelled growth in core categories by launching new products to support evolving consumer needs and increased marketing investment to support its leading brands. The company continued to expand sales with growth in grocery, foodservice and international channels in line with strategic objectives. Additionally, the transformational manufacturing initiatives previously announced remain on track with cost savings projected in 2H FY2026 and FY2027.

The company also delivered strong results in its bulk division, with segment EBITDA of $41.1 million, up 68%.

The company said:

This significant improvement is due to a better initial alignment of farm gate milk prices to dairy commodity prices, incremental milk supply, additional toll manufacturing, and a focus on higher value commodities and nutritionals.   

Bega declared an interim dividend of 7 cents per share, payable on April 2, up from 6 cents for the same period last year.

The company also upgraded its full-year guidance to a normalised EBITDA range of $222 to $227 million, compared with $215 to $220 million given at the company's annual meeting late last year.

Bega added that it had a strong balance sheet, which positioned it well to invest in future growth plans.

Bega Group had consolidated net debt of $219.8 million as at 28 December 2025, compared to $207.2 million as at 29 December 2024, an increase of $12.6 million. The increase in net debt was primarily from an increase in working capital (partly due to higher milk prices) and a reduction in the utilisation of the Trade Receivable Facility. Bega Group's normalised EBITDA to net debt leverage ratio decreased from 1.3 times at the end of 1H FY2025 to 1.2 times at 28 December 2025.

Bega shares traded as high as $6.37 in early trade on Thursday, which was a 12-month high for the stock, which has improved from $4.85 over the past year.

The shares were changing hands for $6.22, up 2.5% by mid-morning.

Bega was valued at $1.85 billion at the close of trade on Wednesday.

The post Bega Cheese shares hit a 12-month high on strong profit numbers appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

So, to narrow down the options, let's take a look at what analysts are saying about three names, courtesy of The Bull.

One has been named as a hold, whereas the others are being tipped as buys. Here's what you need to know:

Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA)

This diversified food company's shares are a hold according to Ord Minnett. The broker thinks that recent increases in the farmgate milk price could be a headwind in 2026 and weigh on its profit growth. It said:

Shares in this food and dairy company have performed well since late 2025, with the price increasing from $5.15 on November 7 to trade at $6.21 on February 5, 2026. The company's profitability has recovered as the gap between farmgate milk prices and global commodity prices has narrowed. However, farmgate milk price increases in fiscal year 2026 may limit further profit gains from the bulk segment. The company maintains its long term focus on achieving its fiscal year 2028 target of more than $250 million in earnings and a return on funds employed exceeding 10 per cent.

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS)

The team at Family Financial Solutions thinks that Telstra could be a top ASX 200 share to buy this week.

It likes Australia's largest telco due to its resilient mobile earnings and defensive earnings. In addition, it thinks its fully franked dividend is attractive (and reliable). It explains:

Telstra is Australia's dominant telecommunications provider with infrastructure‑like cash flows. Reported net profit after tax of $2.3 billion in full year 2025 was up 31 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Cash earnings per share of 22.4 cents were up 12 per cent. The shares were trading at $4.935 on February 5, below our fair value of $5.40. Cost discipline, share buy-backs and resilient mobile earnings support steady upside in a market that still rewards defensiveness. On top of this, Telstra pays reliable, fully franked dividends. Its full year dividend of 19 cents a share in fiscal year 2025 was up 5.6 per cent on the prior corresponding period. TLS was recently trading on a dividend yield of 3.85 per cent.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

Ord Minnett has named buy now pay later provider Zip as an ASX 200 share to buy.

The broker highlights that Zip is performing very positively in FY 2026 and believes this trend can continue. This is especially the case given that the second half is usually the stronger half for margins. It said:

This digital financial company operates in Australia, New Zealand and the United States. There's a lot to like about this buy now, pay later platform provider's first quarter result in fiscal year 2026. Total transaction volume (TTV) growth in the US was up 47.2 per cent and revenue was up 51.2 per cent.  Consequently, Zip's management has increased TTV guidance in the US to more than 40 per cent in full year 2026, which is up from 35 per cent. Margins were strong across the board, highlighted by an operating margin of 19.5 per cent in the first quarter, which is above the guidance range of between 16 per cent and 19 per cent for full year 2026. Margins are usually stronger in the second half.

The post Forget this ASX 200 share and buy Telstra and Zip shares: Experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Here are three that the broker is bullish on for next year:

Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA)

This diversified food company could be an ASX share to buy for 2026 according to Bell Potter.

It has a buy rating and $7.00 price target on its shares. Based on its current share price of $6.01, this implies potential upside of 16% for investors over the next 12 months.

The broker likes the Vegemite owner due to its very positive growth outlook. It explains:

Following recent restructuring announcements, with regard to the closure of Strathmerton and winding down of the PCA operations, there appears a clear pathway towards a $250-270m EBITDA target. If successful in generating this return and having consideration for the cash costs to achieve this target (c$85- 100m), it would imply a share price of $8.00-9.00ps (at BGA's historical ~12x EBITDA multiple). In effect, BGA now has a clearly articulated strategy to generating >20% p.a. EPS growth to FY28e. Trading on a FY25-28e PEG ratio of ~1x, BGA is one of the more compelling growth exposures in the sector.

CAR Group Limited (ASX: CAR)

Another ASX share that the broker is positive on its auto listings giant CAR Group.

Bell Potter has a buy rating and $42.20 price target on CAR Group's shares. This implies potential upside of 38% for investors from current levels.

It highlights that its shares are trading on lower than normal multiples, which it believes is a buying opportunity for investors. It said:

CAR is trading around two-year lows at a P/E of ~28x, despite a defined product rollout map to drive value from its market-leading networks in its large, addressable markets, which includes C2C payments, pay-per-lead model, regional expansion and scope to develop market-based legacy advertising practices, underpinning a steady growth profile in our forecast EPS through FY26e-FY28e.

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN)

A final ASX share that the broker is bullish on for 2026 is retail giant Harvey Norman.

Bell Potter has a buy rating and $8.30 price target on its shares, which implies potential upside of approximately 18% for investors over the next 12 months.

The broker believes that Harvey Norman's shares are still good value despite rising strongly in 2025. It explains:

Despite the strong re-rate in the name, HVN trades at ~2.0x market capitalisation to freehold property value as Australia's single largest owner in large format retail with a global portfolio surpassing $4.5b and collectively owning ~40% of their stores (franchised in Australia and company operated offshore). This sees our view that of the 1-year forward ~19x P/E multiple as justified considering the multiple catalysts near/mid-term.

The post Bell Potter rates these ASX shares as strong buys for 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The Bell Potter team warns that investments in the sector can be high-risk, with commodity prices and seasonal factors coming into play.

That said, they've named three companies which they've picked on the basis of "valuation dislocations where we see a buying opportunity''.

Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA)

This company, which Bell Potter says sells its products both locally and abroad, has made some good changes recently, they reckon.

The Bell Potter team goes on to say:

Following recent restructuring announcements, with regard to the closure of Strathmerton and winding down of the PCA operations, there appears a clear pathway towards a $250-270m EBITDA target. If successful in generating this return and having consideration for the cash costs to achieve this target it would imply a share price of $8.00-9.00 per share (at BGA's historical ~12x EBITDA multiple).

Keep in mind that the current share price is just $6.04 per share.

Bell Potter says the company has a "clearly-articulated strategy" towards generating more than 20% earnings per share growth, and the broker has a price target on Bega shares of $7.

Rural Funds Group Ltd (ASX: RFF)

This entity is a listed investment trust with a portfolio "focused on almond orchards, vineyards, cattle, cotton and macadamias'', Bell Potter says.

The Bell Potter team goes on to say:

Assets in the portfolio are some of the most productive in the industry and leased to high quality tenants including Treasury Wine Estates, Olam, JBS, AACo and Select Harvests.

The analyst team say the share price's current discount to net assets of about 35% is well above the historical average of about 5%, and they expect the company to start selling off assets next year to unleash some of this untapped value.

Bell Potter has a price target on the shares of $2.45 against $2.04 currently.

Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD)

Elders is a leading supplier of fertiliser, agricultural chemicals, and animal health products, and also has a real estate arm and is active in the wool and livestock sectors.

Bell Potter said it saw encouraging signs for FY26, "with livestock turnoff values up about 35% year on year through the first quarter of 2026, stable to rising crop protection active ingredient values and modestly higher fertiliser price indicators''.

Bell Potter said Elders could drive double-digit earnings per share growth across the next two financial years, which "does not look reflected in the current share price''.

Bell Potter has a price target on Elders shares of $9.45 compared with $6.99 currently.

The post These agricultural stocks are fundamentally undervalued, Bell Potter says appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

That's because listed below are three ASX 200 growth shares that Bell Potter thinks could be among the best to buy in 2026.

Here's what it is saying about them:

Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA)

The team at Bell Potter thinks the Vegemite owner is well-placed for a period of strong growth thanks to its restructuring and strategy. Commenting on the ASX 200 growth share, it said:

Following recent restructuring announcements, with regard to the closure of Strathmerton and winding down of the PCA operations, there appears a clear pathway towards a $250-270m EBITDA target. If successful in generating this return and having consideration for the cash costs to achieve this target (c$85- 100m), it would imply a share price of $8.00-9.00ps (at BGA's historical ~12x EBITDA multiple).

In effect, BGA now has a clearly articulated strategy to generating >20% p.a. EPS growth to FY28e. Trading on a FY25-28e PEG ratio of ~1x, BGA is one of the more compelling growth exposures in the sector.

Bell Potter has a buy rating and $7.00 price target on this diversified food company's shares. Based on its current share price of $6.16, this implies potential upside of 14% for investors over the next 12 months.

Life360 Inc (ASX: 360)

Another ASX 200 growth share that Bell Potter is tipping as a buy is location technology company Life360.

While its performance in the last quarter was softer than expected, the broker believes that this will be a one off and expects it to return to form in the fourth quarter. It said:

Life360 has had a large pullback in its share price like many other stocks in the technology sector (peak of ~$55 in early October down to ~$35 in mid November). Outside of the general correction in the sector there was one factor specific to the company which also drove down the share price – slowing monthly active user or MAU growth in 3Q2025. Q3 is traditionally the strongest quarter for MAU growth so the relatively slow growth was a big surprise and was also not well explained by the company.

Outside of this number, however, everything was as expected or better and importantly paying subscriber growth was still strong. Our view is the outlook remains very positive for the company and the one quarter of relatively soft MAU growth was an aberration. We therefore expect a return to reasonable or even strong MAU growth in 4Q2025, and this could also serve as a potential catalyst for the share price.

Bell Potter has a buy rating and $52.50 price target on its shares. This suggests that upside of 57% is possible for investors between now and this time next year.

Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME)

A final ASX 200 growth share that could be a buy according to Bell Potter is health imaging technology company Pro Medicus.

It thinks Pro Medicus is one of the highest quality companies on the Australian share market. And after years of strong growth, don't expect a slowdown any time soon. Bell Potter expects the explosive growth to continue. It said:

Pro Medicus is among the highest quality companies on the ASX. CY25 was yet another banner year with 10 major contract announcements, totalling minimum revenues of $445m. We expect EPS growth of 36% in FY26 followed by 30% in FY27. The company continues to announce new contract wins on a regular basis as the drivers of interest in its product offering remain firmly in place. The entire radiology industry is headed to cloud based (off premises) archiving.

Put simply, the Visage 7 viewer, Workflow and Archive are the fastest and most advanced tools for the retrieval and viewing of large radiology files. The platform is immensely scalable and relatively easily installed, providing it with a sustainable competitive advantage over the likes of peers Intelerad, Sectra, Phillips and GE Healthcare. The company is conservatively managed and well owned by large institutional investors while the two founders continue to have a controlling stake.

Bell Potter has a buy rating and $320.00 price target on its shares. Based on its current share price of $232.93, this implies potential upside of 37% for investors over the next 12 months.

The post Bell Potter names the best ASX 200 growth shares to buy in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

But of course, finding those companies is easier said than done. I myself have bought ASX 200 shares before with the hope of owning a lifelong investment, only to have had to sell out of them as my original thesis failed to hold up with time.

Today, though, let's discuss an ASX 200 share that I think is worthy of consideration as a stock to own for the coming decade. This ASX 200 company shows signs of market dominance and significant brand loyalty with its portfolio of iconic brands. It also looks financially healthy and has established itself as a reliable payer of fully-franked dividends.

That ASX 200 share is Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA). You probably know Bega for its dairy products. After all, this is a company that has been around in some shape or form since 1899.

Why is Bega a top ASX 200 share for long-term investors?

But aside from Bega Cheese (which is actually produced by French dairy company Lactalis), Bega owns a wide stable of some of Australia's favourite household brands. There are juice labels Juice Brothers, Daily Juice Co, and Mildura, as well as dairy brands Yoplait, Dairy Farmers, and Pura.

But Bega has been on a bit of a buying spree over the past decade. For one, it acquired the rights for Kraft peanut butter from Mondelez International in 2017, which has subsequently been rebranded as Bega Peanut Butter. The company also owns the more health-focused Simply Nuts brand.

Even more significant was Bega's acquisition of Mondelez's other snack brands, which included Zoosh and the culturally iconic Vegemite. It was the first time Vegemite returned to an Australian owner in almost 90 years.

But that's not the largest acquisition Bega has made in recent years. This ASX 200 share purchased the non-alcoholic drinks division of Lion Dairy & Drinks from the Japanese giant Kirin in 2020. These included popular names like Farmers Union, Big M, Dare, and Zooper Dooper.

So Bega is a giant share in the ASX 200 consumer staples space.

But let's get into this company's financials. So Bega has just come off a bumper year. For its FY2025, it posted a normalised earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $202 million, up 23.1% year on year. Earnings per share (EPS) rose by a stunning 72.9% on a normalised basis to 16.6 cents.

Meanwhile, the company is making enormous progress in paying off its debt from the acquisitions discussed above. Its net debt fell 22.4% over the 2025 financial year to $126.1 million.

At the same time, Bega paid out its highest dividend in history in 2025. The company announced two dividends, both worth 6 cents per share, this year. Both came fully franked too, as is Bega's habit.

Foolish Takeaway

Bega is not a perfect investment. The company is subject to many factors outside its control, most notably farmgate dairy prices. But no ASX share is perfect. With such a strong portfolio of beloved consumer brands, I think Bega is well placed to thrive over the coming decade.

The post 1 ASX 200 share to consider for the coming decade appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This has led the broker to pick out ASX 200 stocks that it believes are among the best to buy in December ahead of the new year. Let's see what it is recommending to clients:

Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA)

This diversified food company's shares have been named as a buy by Bell Potter with a $7.00 price target,

The broker highlights that its strategy leaves it well-placed to grow its earnings per share by upwards of 20% per annum through to 2028. It said:

Following recent restructuring announcements, with regard to the closure of Strathmerton and winding down of the PCA operations, there appears a clear pathway towards a $250-270m EBITDA target. If successful in generating this return and having consideration for the cash costs to achieve this target (c$85- 100m), it would imply a share price of $8.00-9.00ps (at BGA's historical ~12x EBITDA multiple). In effect, BGA now has a clearly articulated strategy to generating >20% p.a. EPS growth to FY28e. Trading on a FY25-28e PEG ratio of ~1x, BGA is one of the more compelling growth exposures in the sector. Buy, Price Target $7.00

Centuria Industrial REIT (ASX: CIP)

This industrial property company is another ASX 200 stock that gets the seal of approval from Bell Potter. It has a buy rating and $3.65 price target on its shares.

Bell Potter highlights that its shares are trading at a sharp discount to their net tangible assets (NTA). This comes at a time when the broker believes there is a strong chance of higher valuations for its properties driven by cap rate compression. It said:

The capital transaction market for industrial has improved significantly across CY25, and indeed, we see strong runway for the sector and in turn valuations into CY26 with material levels of dry powder capital already raised awaiting deployment. Coming into 1H26 and FY26 result periods, we anticipate revaluation uplift driven by cap rate compression as well as net effective rental growth given +5.8% trailing LFL NOI growth that we think is cycling trough levels. CIP provides access to a best in class, scaled, east coast portfolio of industrial property yet trades at a c. -14% discount to NTA.

Generation Development Group Ltd (ASX: GDG)

A third ASX 200 stock that is rated highly by the broker is Generation Development Group.

It is a provider of investment bonds and investment-linked lifetime annuities that offer tax-efficient solutions for wealth accumulation, estate planning, and regular retirement income.

The broker has a buy rating and $8.40 price target on its shares.

It is positive on the company's outlook, noting that its investor day targets were comfortably ahead of expectations. It said:

FY28 managed account targets provided at the investor day were ahead of consensus forecasts, incorporating +$28-33bn net inflows and implying +33% compound FUM growth at the mid-point. Expectations for +50% EBITDA margins were also reiterated. Trading on 32x FY28 PE we view the risk-reward as positively asymmetric with: (1) run-rate net inflows of +$8bn likening to +$24bn before new mandates and partnerships; (2) adviser install base utilisation of 35%; and (3) a request for proposal with large superannuation funds flagged to complete within 6-12 months.

The post 3 of the best ASX 200 stocks to buy in December appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The top broker has given the following shares outperform ratings and optimistic 12-month price targets despite today's volatility.

Let's check them out.

ASX 200 shares set to outperform in 2026: broker

Here is a selection of Macquarie's top ASX 200 share tips across the 11 market sectors for 2026.

Materials

Macquarie likes ASX 200 gold share Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL), which is trading at $1.29 on Thursday, up 3%.

The broker has a price target of $1.70 on the stock, implying a potential 32% upside.

Macquarie is also backing James Hardie Industries plc (ASX: JHX) shares for a strong recovery after a 40% dive in 2025.

The James Hardie share price is currently $29.92.

The broker has a price target of $40.60 on the building materials supplier, implying a potential 36% gain over 12 months.

Technology

The Macquarie Technology Group Ltd (ASX: MAQ) share price is down 22% in the year to date to $68.19 on Thursday.

The broker has high hopes for this ASX 200 tech share with a 12-month price target of $97.30, suggesting a 43% rise.

Macquarie also likes NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT) shares with a price target of $20.90.

The NextDC share price is currently $13.87, suggesting a potential 51% upside over the next 12 months.

As we reported this week, ASX 200 tech shares are officially in a bear market amid fears of an AI bubble and high valuations.

Financials

The top broker has a $2.50 price target on GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG) shares, which are trading at $1.80 today, up 7.5%.

This implies a potential capital gain of 39%.

Macquarie also likes Pinnacle Investment Management Ltd (ASX: PNI) shares with a price target of $26.55.

The ASX 200 financial share is $17.63 on Thursday, up 3.8%. The broker's target implies a meaty 51% potential upside.

Industrials

Macquarie has a price target of $8.10 on navy shipbuilder Austal Ltd (ASX: ASB).

Increased global spending on defence is a major tailwind for this ASX 200 industrial share, which is $6.62 apiece today.

This implies a potential 22% gain from here.

The broker is also optimistic on IPH Ltd (ASX: IPH) shares, which are trading for $3.46 on Thursday, down 0.7%.

Macquarie is tipping a 60% upside with its $5.55 price target.

Utilities

Macquarie is backing AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL) shares for 2026 with a price guide of $11.

The AGL share price is $9, up 0.2% on Thursday, so the broker is expecting a 22% gain from here.

Consumer discretionary

Macquarie is positive on Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW) shares with a price target of $31.30.

Temple & Webster shares were smashed this week after the online furniture retailer reported an 18% lift in sales for 1H FY26 so far.

The Temple & Webster share price is $14.20, up 2.7% today, with a potential 120% capital gain on the cards if Macquarie is right.

The broker also likes ARB Corporation Ltd (ASX: ARB) shares with a price target of $44.90 compared to the current share price of $33.84.

Consumer Staples

In this sector, the broker likes ASX 200 agricultural share Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA).

The Bega Cheese share price is $5.98, down 0.8% on Thursday.

Macquarie has a price target of $6.80 on the stock, suggesting a potential near-14% upside.

The broker also foresees Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares surpassing their record high in 2026.

The Coles share price is $22.44, up 0.4% on Thursday and well down on the record $24.28 reached in September.

Macquarie has a price target of $26.10 on the second biggest ASX 200 consumer staples share on the market.

This implies a potential 16% capital gain from here and a new all-time high for Coles shares.

Healthcare

Despite its share price plunge this year, Macquarie is backing CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) for a comeback in 2026.

The CSL share price is $185.61 on Thursday, up 1.5%.

Macquarie's 12-month price target is $275.20, suggesting a potential 48% gain from here.

The broker also likes sleep apnoea device maker, Resmed CDI (ASX: RMD) shares.

Macquarie has a price target of $49.20 on this ASX 200 healthcare share, which is trading 0.2% lower today at $39.24.

Communications

Macquarie likes Seek Ltd (ASX: SEK) shares with a price target of $32.50, implying a potential 32% increase over the next 12 months.

The Seek share price is $24.56, up 1% today.

Another ASX 200 communications share on the broker's radar for 2026 is carsales.com.au owner Car Group Limited (ASX: CAR).

The CAR share price is $34.73 on Thursday, up 1.5%.

The broker foresees 13% in capital growth over the next 12 months with a price target of $39.

Energy

Macquarie has a share price target of $11.10 on the market's largest ASX 200 uranium share, Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN).

The Paladin Energy share price is $7.82, down 2%, so the broker's tip suggests a potential 42% upside from here.

The broker also expects a recovery in the Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) share price after a difficult year and a withdrawn takeover bid.

The Santos share price is $6.44, down 1.9%. Macquarie's price target is $8.15, implying a potential 26% increase ahead.

Real estate & REITs

Macquarie has a $6.74 price target on ASX 200 real estate share Lendlease Group (ASX: LLC).

Lendlease shares are $5.18, down 0.6% today, so the broker's tip implies a potential 30% upside from here.

Macquarie also likes sector leader Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) with a price target of $34.73.

The Goodman Group share price is $29.66, up 0.9% on Thursday.

The post Macquarie reveals ASX 200 share tips in each market sector for 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ) has fallen 9.16% while the S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index (ASX: XSJ) has demonstrated resilience, rising 0.59% over the past four weeks.

Broker Bell Potter says the pause in interest rate cuts amid potentially resurgent inflation has led to a sell-off in discretionary stocks.

However, the broker expects a change in momentum as we enter the pre-Christmas retail period.

ASX 200 consumer staples vs. discretionary shares

Bell Direct market analyst, Sophia Mavridis said several factors had given consumer staples shares positive momentum in recent weeks.

They include dairy sector price inflation rising 2% year-over-year in September to an 18-month high.

There has also been sustained spending growth at Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) and Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL).

Weakness in the New Zealand dollar is providing a foreign exchange tailwind for A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M), which is now the consumer staples sector's third largest business after 61% growth in its share price this year.

Looking ahead to the silly season, Mavridis said the consumer discretionary sector is "showing some encouraging signs".

She noted spending in non-food categories rose 5% year-over-year in September.

Additionally, the Westpac/Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index surged above its 100-point confidence baseline this month.

That's the first time it's gone above 100 since the interest rate tightening cycle began in May 2022.

The Consumer Sentiment Index rose 12.8% from 92.1 in October to 103.8 in November.

Westpac analyst Matthew Hassan said this is a seven-year high excluding the COVID period.

Mavridis said higher consumer confidence should be supportive in the upcoming trading season.

This includes Black Friday at the end of November and the pre-Christmas shopping spree in December.

Seasonality has prompted Bell Potter to change its key share picks in the ASX 200 consumer staples and discretionary sectors.

Bell Potter's top stock picks

In the consumer staples arena, Bell Potter is focused on market leaders.

The broker is positive on Woolworths shares, Endeavour Group Ltd (ASX: EDV), and Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA).

Bell Potter also has a buy rating on rural services and agribusiness Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD).

The Elders share price rose 8.61% to $7.57 last week after a strong FY25 report.

Bell Potter sees more growth ahead for Elders shares with a 12-month price target of $9.45.

In the discretionary sector, Bell Potter's high conviction picks include Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN).

Bell Potter also likes youth apparel retailer Universal Store Holdings Ltd (ASX: UNI) and footwear retailer Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1).

It also has a buy rating on Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL) with a share price target of $80.

The post What's driving a 9% divergence in ASX 200 consumer staples vs. discretionary shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) experienced significant fluctuations last week.

The US market wobbled and the ASX 200 followed suit, hitting a near six-month low before closing 2.52% lower for the week.

Bell Potter described a "sharp derating" of tech stocks, with the sector the worst performer of the week.

Tech shares fell 4.07% amid persistent fears of an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble.

Additionally, both the technology and financials sectors fell to six-month lows as expectations of a US interest rate cut faded.

Australian wages and jobs data released last week did nothing to change expectations that our cash rate will stay on hold as well.

The markets are currently pricing a 6% chance of a rate cut in December, and Betashares chief economist David Bassanese said the "benign" wages and jobs data "should not shift the needle significantly either way regarding the RBA outlook for interest rates".

Bell Direct market analyst, Sophia Mavridis described last week's volatility:

… the Australian share market dropped to a near six-month low before rebounding.

The benchmark ASX 200, which lost around $220 billion dollars in cumulative value over the last four weeks, found critical support after a week of global uncertainty.

Now, the drop was driven by mounting concerns over lofty technology valuations and a general global risk-off mood ahead of key US earnings.

However, the mood shifted following a blowout earnings report from us chip giant Nvidia, which eased the global fears of an impending AI bubble pop and sparked a major relief rally …

However, that relief rally on Thursday was short-lived, with fear returning to the market on Friday and ASX 200 shares falling 1.59%.

ASX 200 still expensive, says fundie

Over the past month, the ASX 200 has fallen by more than 7% after hitting a record of 9,115.2 points in mid-October.

Despite the fall, experts say the market is still expensive.

Blackwattle Investment Partners said the ASX 200 is trading on a 21x forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio.

This compares to a 10-year average of about 16x.

Consumer staples shares led the ASX sectors last week

Amid the volatility, it was fitting that consumer staples, one of the market's most defensive sectors, came out on top.

The share price of the sector's largest company, Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW), fell 0.57% to $28.08.

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares rose 0.54% to $22.43.

The A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) share price rose 1.52% to $9.36.

The share price of liquor retailer and hotels owner Endeavour Group Ltd (ASX: EDV) fell 0.27% to $3.66.

The ASX 200's largest pure-play wine share, Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) fell 3.12% to close at a 52-week low of $5.58.

IGA network owner Metcash Ltd (ASX: MTS) fell 2.08% to $3.76 per share.

ASX 200 agriculture share Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) recovered 5.76% to close at $8.45 apiece.

This followed a near-10% fall the week before after the company's FY25 report disappointed investors.

Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA) shares fell 0.51% to close at $5.90 on Friday.

The Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD) share price lifted 8.61% to $7.57 on the back of a strong FY25 report released on Tuesday.

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

The post Why did the ASX 200 dive to a near six-month low last week? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Bega Cheese shares closed yesterday, trading for $5.69. In early afternoon trade on Wednesday, shares are changing hands for $5.74, up 0.9%.

For some context, the ASX 300 is up 0.2% at this same time.

Taking a step back, Bega Cheese has also modestly outperformed over the past year, with shares up 8.4% compared to the 7.3% one-year gains delivered by the index.

Atop those capital gains, the ASX 300 stock also offers a 2.1% fully franked dividend yield.

And looking to the year ahead, the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) expects investors will see both higher dividends and a significantly higher share price from Bega Cheese.

Here's why.

ASX 300 stock tipped to outperform

At the company's annual general meeting (AGM), held on 27 October, Bega Cheese CEO Pete Findlay noted, "Dairy continues to be a powerful vehicle for delivering daily health and wellness outcomes, and we are well-positioned to lead in that space."

Running the numbers on the ASX 300 stock in a new report released today, Macquarie highlighted the growth potential for dairy snacking products.

According to the broker:

Health/wellness trends are driving a high-single to low-double-digit sales CAGR globally in sub-categories, including high protein; no/low sugar; gut health; energy. In AU, dairy snacking products – particularly yoghurt – are delivering double-digit unit growth, with consumers preferring 'better-for-you' options over traditional snacking categories such as confectionery and soft drinks (low- to mid-single-digit unit growth).

Snacking in AU is under-penetrated in the morning daypart, rel. to global benchmarks (US and EU). Yoghurt & milk-based beverages (MBB) well placed to benefit from greater morning daypart snacking, driven by NPD through BGA's fast second-mover advantage.

Macquarie also noted the benefits of Bega Cheese's high market share when it comes to gaining the required shelf space and promotional campaigns with major customers, including supermarkets and convenience store operators.

On the earnings outlook, the ASX 300 stock is targeting significant growth.

According to Bega Cheese's Findlay:

We believe we are on track to exceed our EBITDA [earnings before interest taxes, depreciation and amortisation] target of $250 million by FY 2028. We are pleased to provide guidance for FY 2026 with a normalised EBITDA range of $215 million to $220 million, further evidence of our strategic momentum and delivery capability.

Macquarie said it is "gaining comfort" in Bega Cheese's revenue outlook.

"With BGA's key categories in a growing TAM, we believe this should give the market increasing confidence in BGA's ability to deliver sustained sales growth and exceed $250m+ in EBITDA by FY28E (MQe & VA cons ~$260m)," the broker said.

Connecting the dots, Macquarie raised its 12-month target price on the ASX 300 stock to $6.80 a share (up from the prior $6.60 a share).

That represents a potential upside of 18.5% from current levels. And it doesn't include those upcoming dividends.

The post Why Macquarie expects this dividend paying ASX 300 stock to leap 19% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

That's because analysts at Bell Potter are recommending it to clients and are tipping very big returns over the next 12 months.

Which ASX 200 share?

The share we are going to look at today is diversified food company Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA). It owns brands such as Vegemite, Bega, Yoplait, Farmers Union, Pura, and Dare.

Bell Potter was pleased with the company's annual general meeting update. It highlights that the ASX 200 share has reaffirmed its guidance for FY 2026 and is on target to outperform its FY 2028 guidance. It said:

BGA's AGM retained FY26e earnings guidance while pointing to a step-change in FY27e and being on track to exceed BGA's $250m FY28e EBITDA target.

Key points: AGM comments: Of interest we noted: (1) Retention of FY26e EBITDA guidance of $215-220m, despite the recent weaker pricing trends in SMP and lower industry milk production; (2) Comments that BGA has increased contracted FY26e milk supply compared to a YTD -2% YOY move in national milk supply (and a YTD -3% YOY contraction in the SE milk pool); (3) Anticipation of a step-change in FY27e EBITDA as the benefits of the closure of the Strathmerton and PCA (expected to deliver $35-40m in operational savings) flow through; and (4) BGA is confident of exceeding its $250m FY28e EBITDA target.

Big potential returns

In response to the update, the broker has reaffirmed its buy rating and $7.00 price target on the ASX 200 share.

Based on its current share price of $5.41, this implies potential upside of almost 30% for investors over the next 12 months.

In addition, the broker is forecasting fully franked dividends of 12 cents per share in FY 2026. This equates to a dividend yield of 2.2%, which lifts the total potential return comfortably beyond 30%.

Overall, Bell Potter thinks this ASX 200 share is good value given its very positive growth outlook. In fact, it sees potential for its shares to rise beyond its price target if everything goes to plan. It explains:

Our Buy rating is unchanged. Following recent restructuring announcements with regard to the closure of Strathmerton and winding down of the PCA operations, there appears a clear pathway towards a $250-270m EBITDA target.

If successful in generating this return and having consideration for the cash costs to achieve this target (c$85-100m), it would imply a share price of $8.00-9.00ps (at BGA's historical ~12x EBITDA multiple). In effect, BGA now has a clearly articulated strategy to generating >20%pa EPS growth to FY28e. Trading on a FY25-28e PEG ratio of ~1x, BGA is one of the more compelling growth exposures in the sector.

The post Guess which ASX 200 share could rocket 30% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Tuesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall

The Australian share market looks set to fall on Tuesday despite a very strong start to the week on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 35 points or 0.4% lower. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is up 0.7%, the S&P 500 is 1.2% higher, and the Nasdaq has jumped 1.8%.

Liontown update

Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares will be on watch on Tuesday when the lithium miner releases its first quarter update. The team at Macquarie expects Liontown to outperform expectations during the three months. It said: "Our 1QFY26 production estimate for LTR is 4% above market expectations. We forecast spodumene production of 52kt in 1QFY26E with shipments 2H weighted."

Oil prices soften

It could be a subdued session for ASX 200 energy shares such as Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) after oil prices softened overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 0.15% to US$61.40 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.35% to US$65.71 a barrel. Demand concerns appear to be behind this decline.

Buy Bega Cheese shares

Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA) shares are good value according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, in response to the diversified food company's quarterly update, the broker has retained its buy rating and $7.00 price target on its shares. It said: "In effect, BGA now has a clearly articulated strategy to generating >20%pa EPS growth to FY28e. Trading on a FY25-28e PEG ratio of ~1x, BGA is one of the more compelling growth exposures in the sector."

Gold price sinks

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) could have a tough session on Tuesday after the gold price sank overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 3.2% to US$4,003.9 an ounce. Trade progress between the US and China has cooled demand for safe haven assets.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.