What is Morgans saying about APA, Bega Cheese, and Transurban shares?

All three ASX 200 companies have just reported their 1H FY26 results.

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S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are 0.1% down as the market takes a breather following yesterday's new record.

As reporting season continues on Friday, Morgans has run the ruler over the earnings results of three ASX 200 companies.

Let's take a look.

Man cupping ear as if to listen closely.

Image source: Getty Images

Transurban Group (ASX: TCL)

The Transurban share price is 3.3% higher at $14.34 on Friday.

Yesterday, Transurban reported a 6.4% lift in proportional operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) to $1,545 million for 1H FY26.

The market's largest industrial sector stock will pay a dividend of 34 cents per share.

Morgans said:

1H26 Operating EBITDA (+6% on pcp) missed Visible Alpha consensus by 3% while Free Cash (+2% on pcp) was in-line (both were below our forecasts).

Changes to FY26-28F EBITDA are immaterial. Free Cash downgraded 1-3% mainly due to higher debt service outlook.

DPS forecast remains in line with DPS guidance for FY26 and for 5% pa growth across FY27-29F (within the 4-6% pa Free Cash growth range of the 2025 management long-term incentive plan).

The broker retained a hold rating on this ASX 200 industrial share with a 1% reduction in its 12-month price target to $13.19.

Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA)

The Bega Cheese share price is up 5.7% to $6.57 at the time of writing.

In earlier trading, the ASX 200 consumer staples share hit a new 52-week high of $6.72.

Yesterday, Bega Cheese reported a 55.3% increase in net profit after tax (NPAT) to $46.9 million for 1H FY26.

Bega Cheese will pay an interim dividend of 7 cents per share.

Morgans said:

Pleasingly, BGA's 1H26 result materially beat expectations given a stronger than expected performance from its Bulk business.

However, the result from its much larger Branded business was solid and would have been even stronger if BGA had more yoghurt capacity to take advantage of the strong demand for protein given health and wellness trends.

Importantly, expansion plans in this area are underway.

FY26 earnings guidance was upgraded. Given its restructuring activity, expansion plans and new product pipeline, we continue to believe that BGA will beat its FY28 EBITDA target of +A$250m. We think A$265m is more likely.

This underpins a strong growth profile across the forecast period.

Morgans has an accumulate rating on the ASX 200 consumer staples share. Its 12-month share price target is $7.10.

APA Group (ASX: APA)

The APA share price is 1.7% higher at $9.16 on Friday.

Yesterday, APA reported a 7.6% lift in underlying EBITDA to $1,092 million, with margins up to 77.3%, for 1H FY26.

Statutory NPAT lifted to $95 million, up from $34 million last year.

The ASX 200 utilities share will pay an interim dividend of 27.5 cents.

Morgans said:

Inflation-linked revenues, a cost-out program and contributions from new assets underpin short-term earnings growth.

Potential return on and of the enlarged growth capex pipeline in a rising interest rate environment will be a key investor focus, as will the headwind of approaching expiry of the WGP earnings in FY35.

Underlying EBITDA upgraded 1-2% across FY26-28F (Vic+NSW), Free Cash Flow +/-4-5% (tax and interest paid), and DPS growth unchanged at +1 cps/yr.

The mid-6% cash yield doesn't compensate for ongoing decline in purchasing power of the DPS and flat equity value outlook.

Morgans has a trim rating on this ASX 200 utilities share with a 12-month price target of $7.96.

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group and Transurban Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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