While some ASX sectors have rallied in 2026 to date, as geopolitical uncertainty and demand for defence systems push energy shares and bank stocks higher, other areas of the index are falling behind.

The S&P/ASX 200 Real Estate Index (ASX: XRE) is 2.6% lower for the day, at the time of writing, and has dropped 15.17% lower for the year to date as major real estate giants struggle to hold onto their value.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) shares have tumbled 14.99% in 2026, to $26.20 a piece.

Scentre Group (ASX: SCG) shares have fallen 17.38% to $3.50, at the time of writing.

Stockland Corporation Ltd (ASX: SGP) shares have tumbled 19.22% to $4.65 a piece.

Why are ASX 200 real estate shares sinking this year?

Concerns about Australia's interest rate direction, high borrowing costs, and overall investor uncertainty have weighed heavily on sentiment this year. 

There is broad weakness across the property sector, and the dent in confidence has flowed through to the latest earnings results.

Goodman posted a 1.5% decline in operating profit to $1.2 billion and an 8.3% decline in operating earnings per share (OEPS) to 58.5 cents for the six months ending 31st December. Analysts were expecting an upgrade to its FY26 guidance, but it was left unchanged. Investors were spooked, and the share price sank 7%.

Scentre Group posted a 4.9% rise in its funds from operations (FFO) last month and confirmed customer visitation had climbed. The 2025 results represent the company's fifth consecutive year of earnings and distributions growth, and management is targeting another 4% FFO growth in 2026. But it wasn't enough to convince investors, who were a little deflated from the announcement. 

Stockland also posted a strong first-half FY26 result with profit up 19% and FFO up 29.5%. The company said it expects development earnings and cash flow to be "materially weighted" to the second half of FY26 as more settlement receipts flow through. Again, it wasn't enough to shift investors' sentiment. The shares dipped near their 52-week low earlier this month after the company unveiled a new data centre joint venture. Investors are cautious about balancing this new venture with core operations amid a soft market.

What's next for the three real estate majors?

Analysts are upbeat about the outlook for these ASX 200 real estate shares over the next 12 months.

For Goodman, 11 out of 13 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on its shares, with a maximum target price of $41.50. That implies a 58.43% upside from the share price at the time of writing.

Most (seven out of 12) have a hold rating on Scentre Group shares, and another five have a strong buy rating. The experts think the stock could soar as high as 34.76% to $4.71 in the next year.

Analysts are bullish about the outlook for Stockland shares, too. Out of 10 analysts, seven have a buy or strong buy rating. The maximum $6.60 target price implies a potential 42.09% upside at the time of writing.

The post Goodman, Scentre Group, Stockland: Why are ASX 200 real estate stocks tumbling in 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Scentre Group report?

• Funds From Operations (FFO) rose 4.9% to $1,188 million (22.82 cents per security)
• Distributions increased 3.4% to $923 million (17.72 cents per security)
• Statutory profit came in at $1,779 million
• Customer visitation climbed 2.7% to 540 million visits
• Portfolio occupancy reached a record 99.8%, the highest since 2013
• Net Operating Income (NOI) was up 4.8% on a like-for-like basis

What else do investors need to know?

Scentre Group's Westfield destinations saw business partner sales hit a record $30 billion in 2025, up 3.6% from the prior year. The company also achieved an 11% increase in Westfield membership to 5 million, highlighting steady customer engagement.

The year included expansions and redevelopments at Westfield Sydney, Southland, Burwood, and Bondi, attracting global brands and new precincts. Strategic joint ventures brought in $2.2 billion of new capital, including the partial sales of interests in Westfield Chermside and Westfield Sydney.

What did Scentre Group management say?

Scentre Group CEO Elliott Rusanow said:

Our strategy is to grow the economic activity that occurs at each of our 42 Westfield destinations located throughout Australia and New Zealand. This strategy continues to deliver strong operating performance and continued growth in earnings.

Our 2025 results represent our fifth consecutive year of earnings and distributions growth and we expect these to continue to grow in the years ahead.

What's next for Scentre Group?

Management is targeting at least 4.0% growth in FFO per security for 2026, aiming for 23.73 cents, with distributions tipped to rise another 4% to 18.43 cents per security. Scentre Group plans to keep investing in redevelopments, such as the $240 million project at Westfield Bondi, and intends to increase its investment in Carindale Property Trust, subject to market conditions.

The company is also focused on unlocking value from its 670+ hectares of prime land, with planning proposals lodged to deliver over 16,000 dwellings, while progressing its goal to reach net zero scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030.

Scentre Group share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Scentre Group shares have risen 4%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 9% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Scentre Group lifts profits and distributions with busy Westfield redevelopments appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Scentre Group report?

• Scentre Group declared an interim distribution of AUD 0.08905 per stapled security for the six months to 31 December 2025
• Distribution ex-date: 12 February 2026; record date: 13 February 2026
• Payment will be made on 27 February 2026 via direct credit to eligible holders
• Distribution Reinvestment Plan (DRP) is available, with election deadline on 16 February 2026
• Distributions may be paid in NZD for New Zealand holders with a valid request

What else do investors need to know?

Scentre Group will release its full-year results and Appendix 4E on Tuesday, 24 February 2026, shortly before the payment date. Investors can expect more detailed financial and operational information at that time.

Eligible securityholders must have a registered address in Australia or New Zealand to participate in the DRP or receive payments via direct credit. The company will send tax statements in March 2026 with a breakdown of distribution components.

What's next for Scentre Group?

Scentre Group's upcoming results on 24 February 2026 will provide more insight into the group's performance and outlook for the year ahead. For now, the company is focused on delivering its announced distribution and maintaining direct engagement with investors through its DRP and digital channels.

Investors keen on reinvesting their distributions should review the DRP rules and ensure their preferences are registered by the deadline. Management has indicated ongoing commitment to transparent communications and regular returns to securityholders.

Scentre Group share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Scentre Group shares have risen 5%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 3% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Scentre Group announces February 2026 distribution appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Scentre Group report?

• ART to acquire 19.9% of Westfield Sydney for $864 million
• Transaction price reflects June 2025 book value and a 4.69% capitalisation rate
• Scentre retains 80.1% ownership post-transaction
• Westfield Sydney drew over 33 million customers and generated $1.1 billion in sales during 2024
• Settlement of the transaction is expected in early February 2026

What else do investors need to know?

This deal follows Scentre Group's recent move to jointly venture 50% of Westfield Chermside in Brisbane with Dexus funds, signalling the group's strategy to introduce fresh third-party capital. Scentre has now announced approximately $2.2 billion in new capital through joint ventures during 2025.

Including previous sales of Westfield Sydney's office towers, Scentre Group has now realised about $2.4 billion in total value from the precinct. The company's remaining 80.1% share of Westfield Sydney is now valued at $3.5 billion, almost four times its capital investment since acquiring the asset.

What did Scentre Group management say?

Scentre Group CEO Elliott Rusanow said:

We are very pleased to establish a new strategic partnership with Australian Retirement Trust. Westfield Sydney is an iconic destination located in the heart of Sydney's CBD, visited by more than 33 million customers each year and generating total business partner sales in excess of $1.1 billion… Introducing new capital, through joint venturing our assets, forms a key part of our long-term strategic plan.

What's next for Scentre Group?

Scentre Group is focused on executing its long-term strategy of partnering on its key destinations to unlock value and introduce new capital. Management expects settlement of the ART transaction in early February 2026, while the group continues managing and developing its 42 Westfield destinations.

The company's plan remains centred on creating attractive, vibrant places for both customers and business partners, while aiming to grow returns for securityholders through innovative partnerships and ongoing development.

Scentre Group share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Scentre Group shares have risen 21%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 7% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Scentre Group brings new partner into Westfield Sydney in $864m deal appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Scentre Group report?

• A new Dexus managed fund will purchase a further 25% interest in Westfield Chermside, Brisbane for $683 million.
• The sale price equals Scentre Group's book value at 30 June 2025, reflecting a capitalisation rate of 5.00%.
• Scentre Group will retain a 50% direct ownership and continue as property, leasing and development manager.
• Scentre Group will invest $50 million in the new Dexus fund as a temporary foundation investor.
• Settlement is expected before the end of 2025.

What else do investors need to know?

This transaction follows the earlier deal in July 2025, when Dexus Wholesale Shopping Centre Fund also became a 25% joint venture partner in Westfield Chermside. After these transactions, Scentre Group will have introduced approximately $1.3 billion of new capital into the group.

The company says this added capital aligns with its long-term capital management strategy. Scentre Group remains focused on delivering sustainable growth and pursuing its ongoing strategic priorities. The $50 million investment in the Dexus fund is intended to be temporary.

What did Scentre Group management say?

Scentre Group Chief Executive Officer Elliott Rusanow said:

Following these transactions, approximately $1.3 billion of new capital will have been introduced into the Group.

This is consistent with our long-term capital management strategy and provides the Group with further capital to pursue our strategic objectives and deliver sustainable growth for our securityholders.

What's next for Scentre Group?

Settlement for the sale is anticipated by the end of the year, and Scentre Group aims to use the new capital to support future strategic initiatives. The company continues to manage and develop Westfield destinations throughout Australia and New Zealand.

With the additional funding, Scentre Group plans to strengthen its balance sheet while focusing on growth and value creation for investors. Maintaining its role as property manager at Westfield Chermside, Scentre Group remains committed to long-term asset management and community development.

Scentre Group share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Scentre Group shares have risen 20%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 3% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Scentre Group introduces new joint venture partner for Westfield Chermside appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Economists say the next cash rate movement will be higher, after worse than anticipated October inflation has all but killed off the prospect of a further rate cut.

Meanwhile, Westpac has weighed in that it expects the cash rate to hold steady at this month's RBA meeting. 

As a refresher, the cash rate in Australia is set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and acts as the benchmark interest rate for the economy. 

Changes in Australia's cash rate influence ASX stocks by affecting borrowing costs, investor preferences, and economic activity, with rate hikes generally pressuring share prices (but not always). 

Macquarie said we are increasingly closer to the beginning of rate hikes. 

Hikes are a headwind for stocks, as they impact valuations today and earnings tomorrow.

What is Macquarie's view?

The team at Macquarie said in a report released last week that with rising risk, the next move by the RBA is a hike. It reviewed asset and sector rotation ahead of past hiking cycles.

Just two weeks ago, we suggested the RBA was likely on hold, with hikes possibly starting in 2H CY26 as part of a global pivot due to stronger growth. With the latest core inflation print above the RBA's target band of 2-3%, the risk of hikes has increased.

Macquarie said this risk is not unique to Australia, as 6 of 10 developed markets it tracks have core inflation of at least 3%. 

It reinforced that it does not see this as a stagflation scenario, as higher inflation is partly due to stronger growth and the unemployment rate is still relatively low (albeit trending up slowly).

Sectors to favour/avoid

Macquarie said late cycle sectors tend to outperform in the lead up to hikes. 

The analysis suggests favouring resources, because they benefit from stronger growth, protect against inflation, and are less hurt by valuation drops when bond yields rise. 

Small resources have performed especially well in past cycles, and basic materials, transport, banks, and financial services also tend to outperform before the first RBA rate hike.

On the flip side, the team at Macquarie said cyclicals like media, retail and discretionary often underperform in the lead up to hikes as the market starts to anticipate the best has passed. 

We prefer US consumer cyclicals given potential for more Fed cuts. REITs and Defensives also tend to underperform ahead of RBA hikes. Defensives usually perform better after hikes actually start.

ASX stocks to target

In the report, Macquarie also listed individual holdings to target in the resources sector, including:

• Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO)
• Pilbara Minerals Limited (ASX: PLS)
• South32 Limited (ASX: S32)
• Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX: NST)
• Genesis Minerals Limited (ASX: GMD)
• Perseus Mining Limited (ASX: PRU)

In the financial services sector, the broker named: 

• Challenger Limited (ASX: CGF)
• Australian Finance Group Limited (ASX: AFG)
• Zip Co (ASX: ZIP). 

ASX stocks to avoid

The report from Macquarie also listed the following stocks as ones in sectors that tend to lag ahead of hikes: 

• Wesfarmers Limited (ASX: WES)
• Super Retail Group Limited (ASX: SUL)
• Premier Investments Limited (ASX: PMV)
• Bapcor Limited (ASX: BAP)
• Scentre Group (ASX: SCG)
• Treasury Wine Estates Limited (ASX: TWE)
• Suncorp Group Limited (ASX: SUN)
• Origin Energy Limited (ASX: ORG)

The post Macquarie names best and worst ASX stocks to buy in a rising interest rate environment appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Stocks can provide a larger dividend yield, payout growth, and hopefully capital growth. Term deposits are limited to the guaranteed income they provide – there's capital protection but no further potential returns.

Some businesses can deliver stable (and growing) earnings, which provides the tailwind for both dividend and share price growth. The two ASX 200 shares below are appealing options.

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS)

Telstra is Australia's leading telecommunications business, with significant advantages over competitors. It has the widest network coverage, the best spectrum assets, the most subscribers, and more.

The company has defensive earnings, in my opinion, due to the fact that many households, businesses, and other organisations seem to place a high importance on having an internet connection.

Telstra has a significant market share of both NBN and mobile connections, giving the business pleasing operating leverage. The more subscribers it has, the more its costs can be spread across those users, enabling a strong profit margin.

The regular growth of subscribers and average revenue per user (ARPU) is helping the company's bottom line. Further digitalisation of the Australian economy could lead to further improvements in these metrics.

The Telstra mobile division delivered income growth of 3% to $11 billion and operating profit (EBITDA) growth of 5% to $5.3 billion in FY25, helping Telstra's earnings per share (EPS) climb 3.2% to 19.1 cents and fund a 5.6% rise in the dividend per share to 19 cents.

I think there's a good chance the ASX 200 share will hike its annual dividend per share again to approximately 20 cents in FY26. At the time of writing, this would be a forward grossed-up dividend yield of 5.9%, including franking credits.

Scentre Group (ASX: SCG)

This ASX 200 share is the owner of the Westfield shopping centres around Australia and New Zealand.

While retail isn't one of the most resilient areas of the economy, I think rental income is defensive and predictable. Many of the retailers that lease one of the shops need to have a physical space to sell their items; otherwise, they wouldn't have much of a business.

There isn't any empty real estate to build another large shopping centre near existing Scentre locations in the city, so the Westfield locations don't have much competition to worry about. Online shopping is a headwind, but click and collect sales still require the physical store, and Scentre can lease excess space for other activities beyond retail (such as food, entertainment, education, and so on) in the long term.

In its November update, it said that customer visitation for the 45 weeks to 9 November 2025 was 453 million, up 3.1% year over year. Total annual business partner sales across its portfolio to 30 September 2025 were $29.5 billion, up $760 million. Total business partner sales growth was 3.7%, with specialty sales up 4.4%.

Those are promising sales, which suggest the ASX 200 shares' rental income can continue to grow, with a reported average specialty rent escalation of 4.4% in the nine months to 30 September 2025. Its portfolio occupancy is very high at 99.8%, up 40 basis points (0.4%) on the same period in 2024.

It expects to grow its 2025 distribution by 3% to 17.72 cents per security, translating into a distribution yield of 4.4%, at the time of writing.

The post Forget term deposits! I'd buy these two ASX 200 shares instead appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

That's not to discount the importance of its core retail real estate business, however.

Destination centres a drawcard

While e-commerce has played a growing role in the retail economy in recent years, Wilsons says Scentre has successfully developed its sites to offer strong experiential offerings.

This has kept demand for the retail footprint at its centres strong, which is also supported by "strong population growth and steadily rising household income''.

As Wilsons says in its report:

While e-commerce is reshaping the retail landscape, 'destination' centres are increasingly valued for their experiential offerings – including dining, entertainment, and leisure – which cannot be replicated online. Destination malls not only drive foot traffic and enhance brand visibility for retailers, they also support last-mile logistics and serve as strategic hubs in integrated omnichannel strategies.   

There is also a high bar to entry to compete with Westfield, with retail footprint supply constrained by high construction costs, strict planning rules, and the scarcity of well-located land.

This has resulted in replacement costs that comfortably exceed current market valuations. Consequently, the development pipeline for new shopping centre space is very limited, with no new regional shopping malls currently under construction in Australia.

Wilsons says this combination of high demand for retail tenancies and constrained supply is expected to drive a shortfall of retail space of about 1.1 million square metres by 2030, "supporting high occupancy levels, growth in retail turnover, and steady rental growth for high-quality shopping malls such as Scentre Group's portfolio of Westfield centres''.

Surprising growth driver

There's also another, less obvious reason Scentre Group is attractive, the Wilsons team says, and that is its potential for residential development growth.

This is because the company owns plots of land, some of which are under-utilised, adjacent to its centres, which tend to be in densely populated areas.

Wilsons says the company "could unlock significant value from its existing portfolio, while also helping address Australia's housing shortage''.

Management has recently lodged State Significant Development applications at Burwood (Sydney) and Warringah (Sydney), as well as received rezoning approvals at Hornsby (Sydney) and Belconnen (Canberra), collectively enabling about 7,500 dwellings.

Wilsons says alongside these projects, Scentre maintains a $4 billion development pipeline, including major projects at Bondi and Southland, providing "significant embedded earnings and valuation upside''.

Then finally there's the company's dividend yield, which at 4.5% is well above the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) average of 3.2%, Wilsons says.

Wilsons has included Scentre in what it calls its Focus Portfolio, and says the shares could trend higher from current levels.

As they say in their report:

We believe Scentre Group deserves a premium to the broader Australian real estate investment trust sector given its best-in-class asset portfolio, favourable sector positioning (i.e. pureplay exposure to positive retail fundamentals, zero office or hospital exposure), and above-sector growth profile. Therefore, we see scope for the stock to re-rate higher from current levels.

Scentre shares are currently changing hands for $4.01, valuing the company at $20.9 billion.

The post You'll be surprised at the left-field reason this broker thinks Westfield owner Scentre Group is an attractive buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Many mortgage-payers are hoping the Reserve Bank will vote for another cut, but following inflation data revealed last week, it looks unlikely.

On Wednesday last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator rose 1.3% in the September quarter and 3.2% annually. And it caused a flurry of selling activity which saw the ASX 200 Index nosedive.

The unexpected surge in inflation all-but dashes hopes for a cut this month. Especially with trimmed mean annual inflation – which removes certain volatile items and is the RBA's preferred measure – rising to 3% for the September quarter, up from 2.7% in the June quarter. That was significantly above the RBA's prior forecast of a 2.6% increase.

Now, economists are near-unanimous that rates will stay locked at 3.6% for the foreseeable future.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) thinks the RBA will keep the cash rate on hold tomorrow and no longer expects that ASX 200 investors will see the RBA cut rates in February 2026.

Goldman Sachs economist Andrew Boak, who had been forecasting an RBA rate cut in November and February, now believes rate relief is off the menu for the foreseeable future.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) chief economist Luci Ellis also believes the increase in inflation dims the hope of rate cuts in 2025. 

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) thinks we'll need to wait until May next year before we see any more cash rate relief.  

Stocks that could benefit from another RBA hold decision

The good news is, real estate investment trust stocks (REITs) don't need cash rate cuts to perform strongly. They benefit from stability.

As stocksdownunder.com explains, when the market shifts from "rates are definitely coming down soon" to "rates will hold steady here for the foreseeable future", it removes uncertainty for property stocks. 

REITs can refinance their debt without concern that they need to time the market and property valuations stop compressing. 

And perhaps most importantly, dividend yields start looking genuinely attractive again when investors know the capital base isn't going to erode further.

Here are four ASX 200-listed REITs which could benefit from another hold decision tomorrow.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

Goodman Group is an integrated property group with operations in 14 countries. It specialises in industrial and commercial properties, owning, developing, and managing a global portfolio worth around $80 billion.

Today, it is the largest real estate investment trust (REIT) in Australia, which makes GMG shares a favourite of listed property enthusiasts. Its operations take in North America, Europe, the UK, China, Japan, Brazil, Australia, and New Zealand. 

Ahead of the ASX open on Monday, Goodman shares are $33.03 a piece.

Scentre Group (ASX: SCG)

Scentre Group owns and operates a portfolio of 42 Westfield shopping malls, 37 in Australia and five in New Zealand. The company owns the majority of the Australian and New Zealand's top five retail destinations, with the group's ownership interests totalling around $35 billion. Its retail assets under management are worth more than $51 billion.

The company says its diversified revenue base reduces exposure to any single shopping centre or retailer. As at 31 December 2022, no anchor retailer contributed more than 3% of rental income, and no specialty retailer contributed more than 2%. Its 10 highest-valued retail shopping centres represented 57% of its portfolio value.

At the time of writing, Scentre Group shares are $4.07 each.

Stockland (ASX: SGP)

Stockland is a diversified property development company. The company is one of Australia's largest residential land and housing developers and its business segment generates about a third of the group's funds from operations. Nearly two-thirds comes from commercial property, mostly retail. It also has a land-lease business, although the company's business mix is evolving.

At the time of writing, its shares are $6.31 a piece.

Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR)

Mirvac Group is a diversified property group with interests across residential and master-planned communities, office and industrial, retail, and build-to-rent sectors. The company has around $35 billion in assets currently under management, mainly in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Perth. 

Around 80% of Mirvac's earnings come from a predictable commercial property portfolio, more than half of which is offices and another quarter retail. The company also holds a small industrial portfolio and a fledgling build-to-rent residential portfolio.

At the time of writing, its shares are $2.30 each. 

The post RBA decision looms: These 4 property stocks could benefit from another hold decision  appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It's the Australian and New Zealand owner of the Westfield shopping centres, so it owns significant real estate assets across cities.

There is a seemingly limited supply of major new shopping centres in Australia's large cities, so Scentre controls a strong market position in those areas. Online shopping is a challenge, but physical retail remains the dominant force. Plus, click and collect shopping needs a physical location to succeed.

The last few years have been challenging for businesses in discretionary retail or real estate – Scentre Group is exposed to both. Higher interest rates and inflation were a challenge because it was hurting retail spending, raising debt costs, and creating a headwind for property values. But that's now turning around. The ASX stock's passive income prospects look appealing.

Potential passive income from the ASX stock

In the FY25 first-half result, the business reported funds from operations (FFO – net rental profit) grew 3.2%, and there was a 2.5% hike in the half-year distribution.

Thanks to strong performance, the business upgraded its distribution guidance for the second half of 2025 to 8.905 cents per security, representing 3.5% year-over-year growth. This would equate to full-year distribution growth of 3%.

The forecast on Commsec suggests the annual distribution per security could rise again to 18.2 cents in FY26. I'm going to utilise the 2026 forecast for my calculations because that's the next full-year distribution the business will pay for.

At the time of writing, that translates into a forward distribution yield of 4.5%.

Let's look at how many Scentre Group shares someone would need to buy to gain $350 per month of passive income.

Desired payments

The ASX stock doesn't pay a distribution every month, so it's better to think of the target as an annual payout.

Receiving $350 per month translates into an annual goal of $4,200.

To receive that level of passive income, we'd need to own 23,077 Scentre shares.

Is this a good time to buy?

I believe that Scentre Group is poised to benefit significantly from the RBA interest rate cuts, which could help customer visitor numbers, rental income, potentially reduce debt costs, and boost property values.

Plus, the business is looking at how it can unlock significant value from its land holdings. At the time of the HY25 result, Scentre CEO Elliott Rusanow said:

Our land holdings could potentially supply a significant number of new dwellings in town centres where people already want to live and work. We are engaging with governments and potential capital partners on how we can realise these housing opportunities across our portfolio.

Our strategy to attract more people to our Westfield destinations and to unlock long-term growth opportunities from our strategic land holdings is expected to continue to deliver ongoing growth in earnings and distributions.

The ASX stock offers both pleasing passive income and growth potential.

The post I'd buy 23,077 shares of this ASX stock to aim for $350 a month of passive income appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It's no secret that inflation has been rampant over the past couple of years. 

An increasing number of Australians are facing cost-of-living challenges. 

Last week, the ABS reported that the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator rose 3.0% in the 12 months to August. The figure was significantly ahead of consensus expectations of a 2.8% increase. The ABS said that the largest contributors to annual inflation were housing (up 4.5%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (up 3.0%), and alcohol and tobacco (up 6.0%).

As the country continues to battle inflation, ASX investors may be on the lookout for ASX 200 stocks with high dividend yields to supplement living costs. 

Historically, the big four banks offered attractive dividend yields. However, following their strong share price action, their current yields are much lower than their historical averages. 

ASX investors may be looking for ASX 200 alternatives to the big four banks. 

With interest rate cuts on the horizon, ASX investors may be looking for value in ASX REITs.

In a recent report, Direct market outcomes support upgrades, Macquarie revealed two high-yield ASX 200 REITs that it had recently upgraded.

Charter Hall Retail REIT (ASX: CQR)

Charter Hall Retail REIT is a leading owner of property for convenience retailers. In other words, it owns shopping centres around Australia. 

It's managed by the fund manager Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC), which has substantial experience managing properties in various real estate sectors.

Over the past 5 years, Charter Hall Retail REIT has risen 20%. At the time of writing, it offers an attractive dividend yield of 5.93%. 

Last week, Macquarie upgraded Charter Hall Retail REIT from neutral to outperform.

The broker also increased its price target by 7% from $4.12 to $4.41. 

Scentre Group Ltd (ASX: SCG)

Scentre Group operates 42 Westfield shopping centre destinations in Australia and New Zealand. 

Over the past 5 years, Scentre Group has delivered an impressive performance, rising 85%. 

At the time of writing, the company offers a dividend yield of 4.29%. 

Last week, Macquarie upgraded Scentre Group shares from underperform to neutral. 

The broker also increased its price target by 18% from $3.51 to $4.15. 

The Motley Fool's Bronwyn Allen recently revealed Scentre Group to be among the top 10 shares being bought by Advised HNWI SMSF accounts above $3M in FY26.

The post Looking for passive income? Macquarie just upgraded these 2 high-yield ASX 200 stocks appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

I'm not talking about the biggest Australian companies like Commonwealth Bank Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) or Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO).

Both businesses I'll cover are leaders in Australia and they're rated as opportunities by some brokers. Let's take a look.

Scentre Group (ASX: SCG)

Scentre is the owner of Westfield shopping centres in Australia and New Zealand. According to a collation of analyst opinions by Commsec, there are currently seven buy ratings on the business.

I believe cash rate cuts by the RBA will be significantly beneficial for this business. It could lead to an increase in household budgets, enabling more expenditure at Scentre's locations.

Rate cuts may also mean a reduction in interest rates for Scentre, helping operating profits.

Finally, the underlying value of Scentre's properties could increase thanks to rate cuts.

In the recent reporting season, the ASX dividend share reported that in the six months to June 2025, business partner sales increased 2.9% year-over-year to $13.8 billion. It also revealed funds from operations (FFO) growth of 3.2% to $587 million and distribution per security growth of 2.5% to 8.815 cents.

It's expecting to pay an annual distribution of 17.72 cents per security for 2025, which translates into a yield of 4.2% at the time of writing.

Steadfast Group Ltd (ASX: SDF)

Broker UBS is one institution that likes Steadfast. UBS describes this business as Australasia's largest general insurance broker network and underwriting agency group, with general insurance brokerages across Australia, Asia and Europe.

After seeing the recent FY25 result from the company, UBS noted an organic revenue slowdown, but it's "pulling on costs to maintain profit growth". Cost control helped margins improve in both the broker and agency segments.

Steadfast has guided that FY26 earnings per share (EPS) could grow by between 6% to 10%, consisting of 3% from acquisitions and between 3% to 7% from organic sources. UBS said this growth rate is "respectively in the context of a moderating premium rate outlook" and interest income headwinds.

The broker is expecting a greater US contribution to the FY26 numbers, with the Novum acquisition adding US$100 million of gross written premium (GWP). While not a retail broker, it is the ASX dividend share's first agency/wholesale acquisition in the US, which UBS called a sizeable deal.

UBS is forecasting that the business could pay an annual dividend per share of 22 cents in FY26. This would translate into a grossed-up dividend yield of 5.1%, including franking credits.

The post 2 ASX dividend shares to buy this month: experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The ASX 200 REIT posted its 2025 H1 results on Tuesday. It revealed a net operating income of $1.04 billion for the six months to 30 June, a 3.7% increase from the prior corresponding period. EBIT was also 3.7% higher at $1.02 billion.

The business confirmed 1H FY25 fund from operations (FFOps) of 11.28 cents, up 3% and 0.5% to 1% ahead of market estimates. FY25 expected FFO is guided at 22.75 cents. Scentre Group also upgraded dividends per share (DPS) guidance to 17.72, up 0.5%.

FFO is a financial metric used by REITs to measure core operating cash flow. It adjusts net income by adding back non-cash expenses like depreciation and amortization and subtracting gains from property sales.

Following the results announcement, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) revealed its latest stance on the stock.

Macquarie's outlook on Scentre Group shares

In a note to investors, the broker confirmed its underperform rating on Scentre Group shares. 

It also raised its target price to $3.37, up from $3.18 previously.

At the time of writing, this represents a potential downside of 17.7% for investors over the next 12 months.

"Valuation: Our TP is up +6% to $3.37 (prior $3.18) as we roll forward valuation assumptions. SCG trades at a 15% premium to 30 Jun NTA of $3.54," the broker said in its note.

"Underperform. Retail sector tailwinds should benefit SCG, though we see better value elsewhere in the A-REIT sector with the group trading at 17.2x FFO, a 14% premium to the long-term average of 15.0x."

What else did Macquarie have to say about the ASX 200 REIT? 

The broker said that FFOps for 1H FY25 are in line with its forecast, leasing spreads remain resilient, and occupancy is modestly higher over the 6-month period. It noted that Scentre Group's cost-of-debt is stable at 5.7% for the period, and valuations were 1.2% higher half-on-half.

But while there was some positive news, Macquarie noted there were also "not-so-good" things to come out of the results.

"Project income was $2.0m in 1H25 (1H24: $4.1m) and is expected to see a slight profit in FY25 (FY24: $14.6m). This is due to an additional $15m of costs relating to the third-party design and construction of 101 Castlereagh St, which is partially reducing the level of FFO growth this year," Macquarie said.

"Additional costs are primarily due to a facade subcontractor going into administration and the subsequent delays. The project is expected to complete by 1QCY26."

Elsewhere, sales growth is below rent growth. "Specialty sales growth of +4.3% in 1H25 compares to average rental escalations of +4.5%. The average specialty occupancy cost ratio remained stable at 17.2% and SCG continues to see opportunity to grow the ratio over time."

The post Guess which well-known ASX 200 REIT has been slapped with an underperform rating appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This amounts to about 15.3% of all Australian superannuation funds.

The number of self-managed funds noticeably declined in FY23 after five consecutive years of more than 540,000 SMSFs in operation.

In FY23, we saw a net decrease of 26,759 self-managed superannuation funds, or almost 5%.

ASX shares are a popular investment among SMSF investors.

More than 220,000 SMSFs — or 43% of those in operation — reported franked dividend income in FY23, down 4.8% on FY22.

More than 164,000 SMSFs — or 32% — reported unfranked dividend income from shares, down 4.5% on the previous year.

About 141,000 SMSFs — or just over one in four — reported rental income from an investment property, down 7% on FY22.

In terms of income, about 155,000 SMSFs reported a loss or no taxable income in FY23.

That was the most common scenario for SMSFs, suggesting aggressive growth investment strategies (or poor management!).

Aggressive growth strategies tend to return little to no income as the investor pursues long-term capital growth over annual yield.

The second biggest taxable income category was $10,000 to $49,999 per annum, with 150,000 SMSFs falling into this bracket.

Just over 1,400 SMSFs reported a taxable income of $1 million or more in FY23.

Which ASX shares are popular with SMSFs?

Today, ASX shares and international shares remain a popular investment vehicle for SMSF investors.

Data from wholesale trading platform provider AUSIEX provides some insight into which ASX shares SMSFs are currently favouring.

The data pertains to high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) with more than $3 million in assets in their superannuation funds.

HNWI is a globally recognised term that refers to people who have investable assets worth US$1 million or more.

AUSIEX has split the data between retail and advised clients.

Advised clients have sought professional advice to make investment decisions, and may also have their SMSFs monitored by experts.

This data split provides extra insight into how professional advice may be influencing SMSFs' decision-making on which ASX shares to buy.

Most popular ASX shares among SMSF investors

These were the top 10 ASX shares purchased by SMSF investors with more than $3 million in their funds last month.

Retail HNWI SMSF accounts above $3M

Source: AUSIEX

Advised HNWI SMSF accounts above $3M

Source: AUSIEX

The post 10 most popular ASX shares being bought by self-managed superannuation investors in FY26 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Instead, it's usually the usual suspects like Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS), or Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) that attract the most attention.

However, this preference might be to the detriment of those seeking long-term passive income.

Although REITs don't usually offer franking credits, many make up for this with massive dividend yields that can help bolster the passive income available to investors.

So today, let's discuss three ASX REITs that I think would be fine choices for anyone seeking substantial dividend income from the share market.

Three ASX REITs to boost your passive income

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (ASX: CLW)

First up, we have this ASX REIT from Charter Hall. The Long WALE REIT houses property assets with a relatively long 'weighted average lease expiries', or WALEs. These are mostly government-leased buildings, but also include bank branches, offices, warehouses, distribution centres, and telephony exchanges.

As the name implies, these properties have relatively long WALEs, with the current average sitting at 9.3 years.

In my view, this offers enormous stability to income investors. The Charter Hall Long WALE REIT is currently trading on a trailing dividend distribution yield of 5.48%.

Scentre Group (ASX: SCG)

Next up, we have Scentre Group. You might not have heard of Scentre, but you will almost certainly have heard of its primary assets. Those would be the Westfield-branded network of shopping centres that it owns throughout Australia and New Zealand.

Scentre has had a few ups and downs in recent years as investors reassessed the value of shopping centres in the post-COVID era. But Scentre has proven that its business model was not only able to survive the pandemic, but thrive in its aftermath. Investors were treated to a 2.96% increase in income in 2025, which gives this ASX REIT a trailing yield of 4.36% today.

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (ASX: HDN)

Finally, let's check out the ASX's HomeCo Daily Needs REIT. This property trust and passive income stock mostly owns properties that are leased to popular retailers in its portfolio. Some of its best clients include Bunnings Warehouse, Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW), Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL), JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH), and Aldi. It also rents to both the federal and state governments.

Although HomeCo held its 2025 dividend distributions steady at last year's levels, this ASX REIT offers the highest potential level of passive income on this list. Its units are currently trading on a dividend distribution yield of a whopping 6.4%.

The post 3 top ASX REITS to consider for long-term passive income appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It means tracking and imitating the investment moves of people thought to have superior market insight or information.

This might include institutional investors like pension funds, professional traders, company insiders, and investment managers.

They also include high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), generally defined as having investable assets worth US$1 million or more.

Experienced and skilled investors, HNWIs can afford professional advice and often have access to better research on ASX shares.

So, it can be interesting to see what HNWIs are investing in, as it may provide clues to good opportunities in the market.

Here, we look at the 10 most bought ASX shares in July by HNWI investors with self-managed superannuation funds (SMSFs) above $3 million.

The data, provided by leading wholesale trading platform provider AUSIEX, is split into retail and advised SMSF investors.

This provides further insight into how professional investment advice has influenced HNWIs' decisions on which ASX shares to buy.

Top 10 ASX shares bought in July

Retail HNWI SMSF accounts above $3M

Source: AUSIEX

Advised HNWI SMSF accounts above $3M

Source: AUSIEX

Which shares are HNWIs selling?

AUSIEX has also provided some examples of the most commonly sold ASX shares among HNWIs with SMSFs above $3 million.

In July, the ASX shares that retail HNWI SMSF investors sold most were Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ), Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC), Acorn Capital Investment Fund Ltd (ASX: ACQ), Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield CDI (ASX: URW), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN), and Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS).

Advised SMSF investors sold Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd (ASX: CBA), ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD), Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC), Future Generation Australia Ltd (ASX: FGX), Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS), Scentre Group (ASX: SCG), Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), and Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASX: ASM).

The post Which ASX shares are wealthy investors buying in FY26? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) also hit a new peak of 8,899.1 points, up 0.82%, on Thursday.

Meanwhile, new data released by wholesale trading platform provider AUSIEX reveals some interesting insights into investor activity.

These insights include the top 10 ASX shares being bought by Australian investors in the new financial year.

AUSIEX accounts for a third of the wholesale trading market in Australia.

The provider analysed a sample of a large cohort of its trading data to discover which ASX shares are in the buy zone for investors.

The data is split between retail investors (that's us ordinary folk) and advised investors (those who can afford professional advice).

It's interesting to see the differences in favoured stocks for investment between advised and non-advised investors.

CBA shares a point of contention

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) features in the top 10 ASX shares purchased by retail investors in July.

However, the market's biggest stock did not make the top 10 shares bought by advised investors.

In fact, AUSIEX said CBA was one of the most heavily sold shares among advised investors in July.

This is reflective of the large number of sell or hold ratings from professional analysts on CBA shares today.

This follows the ASX 200 bank stock's astronomical 85% rise between November 2023 and the end of FY25, when it peaked.

Lots of experts think it's time to take profits on CBA shares, and the AUSIEX data suggests advised investors are heeding that message.

Value-focused investing?

It's noteworthy that the No. 1 stock picks among retail and advised investors are companies that have had a poor run in recent years.

This suggests some value-focused buying in the hopes of upside in FY26.

The favourite among retail investors is the ASX 200 lithium share, Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS).

The Pilbara Minerals share price is currently $2.21, down 58% over the past two years.

The favourite among advised investors is the blue chip ASX 200 healthcare giant, CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL).

The CSL share price is $272.20, up just 2.2% over the past two years.

AUSIEX said retail investors focused on ASX resources companies and a few bank shares in July.

By contrast, advised investors bought a more diversified portfolio of ASX industrial shares.

Let's check out the rest of the top 10 most bought ASX shares.

Retail investors: Top 10 ASX shares bought in July

Advised investors: Top 10 ASX shares bought last month

The post Top 10 ASX shares being bought by Aussie investors in the new financial year appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Macquarie's latest review of 24 listed REITs identifies a handful of names where FY26 earnings forecasts may still be too low. In other words, these are companies that analysts at Macquarie believe could guide higher or outperform current consensus expectations in the coming months.

While this is largely a short-term view, it gives a useful read on where earnings momentum may be building.

For long-term investors however, it is not just about who beats this season. It is also about identifying which companies or REITs have durable earnings potential and valuation upside, even if they are not yet in the spotlight.

So here are five REITs Macquarie believes may surprise this earnings season.

Arena REIT (ASX: ARF)

Arena specialises primarily in early learning centres. Macquarie sees it as a steady operator that continues to deliver. It expects FY26 guidance for earnings per share to come in at 19.6 cents, slightly ahead of consensus. This forecast is based on around $95 million in development completions, and no acquisitions.

Interestingly, earnings expectations for Arena have already moved higher, with consensus estimates up 4.6% in the past three months and Macquarie thinks this will continue to rise.

Macquarie's price target sits at $3.96, which is roughly 7% above the current share price of $3.68 at the time of writing.

National Storage REIT (ASX: NSR)

Macquarie expects FY26 guidance of 13 cents per share, which would be an increase of almost 10% year-on-year.

The key driver of this expected growth is an increase in revenue per available metre (REVPAM) and the rollout of an additional 200,000 square metres of net lettable area. If leased effectively, that pipeline could add $38 million in incremental revenue.

Macquarie has a target price of $2.44 and sees the potential for 5% of further upside.

Scentre Group (ASX: SCG)

When Scentre Group reports its FY25 results, Macquarie expects management will guide for higher than expected FY26 earnings. The firm is forecasting funds from operations (FFO) per security of 24.3 cents for FY26, around 2.5% above current consensus. While that might sound incremental, in the context of a large-cap REIT where expectations are subdued, it represents a meaningful beat.

Consensus earnings forecasts have already edged slightly higher in recent months, indicating that some in the market are beginning to recognise the upside risk. Macquarie believes the positive surprise will be driven by three key factors: better than expected portfolio income growth, disciplined cost control, and a modest improvement in funding costs.

Although Macquarie maintains an Underperform rating based on valuation, it acknowledges that near-term earnings momentum could challenge the prevailing cautious view, particularly if the company's FY26 guidance confirms the fundamentals are firmer than widely assumed.

A Long-Term Opportunity: DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (ASX: DGT)

DigiCo, which focuses on digital infrastructure assets, did not make Macquarie's earnings momentum list, but Macquarie thinks it has the most compelling valuation upside.

Macquarie has an outperform rating and a price target of $4.35, compared to a current share price of just $3.25 at the time of writing. That implies over 30% upside.

Unlike more traditional REITs, DigiCo plays in a structurally growing market driven by demand for data, connectivity, and digital assets. While earnings surprises may be less likely in the next quarter, long-term cash flow visibility and capital deployment optionality make it one to watch.

The one to be cautious about: Lendlease (ASX: LLC)

On the flip side, Lendlease was flagged by Macquarie for its downside risk. Macquarie forecasts FY26 earnings guidance of 27.5 cents per share, which is 16% below consensus.

The issues are partly timing related. Last year included capital recycling gains that will not repeat, and several key development milestones, including the One Circular Quay project, which will not contribute to earnings until FY27.

Concensus forecasts have already been cut by 17.5% in recent months and may not be done yet.

Foolish takeaway

Earnings season often creates noise, but underneath it are useful signals. Analysts are slowly revising their expectations higher for several REITs and when the market realises that expectations are too low, prices can adjust quickly.

But as long-term investors, the bigger question is where sustainable growth and valuation upside intersect. That is why stocks like DigiCo, even if not flagged for short-term surprises, deserve close attention (although the risks too deserve closer inspection!).

Surprises can move the market, but long-term returns are built on businesses with real tailwinds and room to grow. Keep an eye on both.

The post ASX REITs: Macquarie's highest conviction earnings calls appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Its share price has risen 10% in that span. 

Scentre Group (ASX: SCG) is the company behind a portfolio of 42 Westfield shopping malls — 37 in Australia and five in New Zealand.

In fact, on a macro level, ASX REITs like Scentre Group outperformed physical real estate/property in FY25. 

Despite its dominance over the Australian and New Zealand market, broker Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has adjusted its price target for Scentre Group Shares. 

Lets see what the broker had to say.

Cautious optimism

Macquarie's view on Scentre Group reflects a cautiously optimistic stance. 

The company is expected to maintain strong operational performance, with high occupancy and positive leasing spreads indicating continued demand for its retail space. 

This supports the narrative that well-located, premium retail centres are still attractive to tenants, even in a changing retail environment.

However, despite these strengths, Macquarie points out that Scentre Group's valuation is relatively high.

The stock is trading at about 16 times its expected earnings (FFO). This is above its long-term average of 15 times. 

Retail sector tailwinds should benefit SCG, though we see better value elsewhere in the A-REIT sector with the group trading at ~16x FFO (15.0x LTA) and a 4.9% DPS yield (5.5% LTA).

Ultimately, the report suggests that Scentre Group is a stable and well-managed company. However, its current share price may already reflect much of its near-term upside. This may leave limited room for strong capital growth unless conditions improve significantly.

Reduced target price

Despite offering a relatively stable and defensive investment with solid fundamentals, from a valuation perspective, Macquarie believes other A-REITs may offer more compelling value at this time. 

This is reflected in the updated price target of $3.18. 

It is a slight downgrade from the previous price target of $3.24. 

Based on the current share price of $3.70, it indicates a downside of approximately 14.05%.

The post Are Scentre Group shares a buy ahead of earnings season? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.