Gold is a safe haven that is usually defensive in times of geopolitical upheaval. Yet the gold price has fallen as the war has continued.

In 2025, the gold price surged 65%, and that followed a 24% increase in 2024.

Contrast that with this year, during which the gold price has risen just 4% higher over five months.

Why?

Gold price was elevated before war began

James Gruber, an Equity Market Strategist at CommSec, says the gold price began surging in 2022, mostly due to central bank buying.

Central banks began diversifying their reserves after the US and allies froze about US$300 billion of Russia's foreign exchange reserves as punishment for invading Ukraine.

In an article, Gruber explained:

This hamstrung Russia's central bank, but it also sent a signal to other countries that their reserves could be frozen at any time.

In other words, their holdings in the likes of US Treasuries were not as safe as previously assumed.

That spurred many central banks to buy large amounts of gold, which was deemed by them to be a safe alternative to holding US-denominated assets.

Demand from central banks was the biggest catalyst pushing the gold price higher.

Once the trend became clear, retail investors joined in.

They bought ASX gold shares, gold ETFs and bullion, and many cashed in their gold jewellery.

Gruber recalled:

You might recall the large lines outside of gold bullion stores in Australia, especially in September and October last year.

That propelled gold prices to reach an intraday record of US$5,589 an ounce in late January.

Since then, and especially after the war began, prices have fallen sharply, albeit there has been a small recovery recently.

Rising demand for gold between 2022 and 2025 also occurred alongside a weakening US dollar, which made gold that much more attractive.

Gruber explains:

In recent years, doubts about the future of the US dollar have arisen with the US running a trade deficit of 6% of GDP and having government debt to GDP of close to 100%, near the highs reached during World War Two.

The current US President, Donald Trump, has further increased the deficit through a combination of tax cuts and higher spending.

What changed after the Iran war began?

Although the gold price has fallen 17% since the war began, the war was not the trigger that disrupted its three-year bull run.

A major sell-off occurred at the very end of January after the gold price ripped nearly 30% in the first month of 2026.

Gruber said central banks may have taken profits after the gold price reached a historical closing high of $5,589 per ounce on 28 January.

Many retail investors also sold their ASX gold shares, ETFs, and bullion during and after that dramatic sell-off.

Then the war began on 28 February.

Sprott Managing Partner, Paul Wong, said the war sparked a rush to liquidity and forced deleveraging for investors.

He argues this does not diminish gold's new role as a strategic asset in the long term.

Gruber notes that the weakened US dollar gained a bit of ground after the war began. This further dampened demand for gold.

Gold is globally quoted in US dollars so when the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive in other currencies, which can result in demand softening, and prices to fall.

This hints at another potential reason for gold's recent plunge. That is, rising real yields.

When real yields (bond yields minus inflation) rise, it makes no yielding assets like gold less attractive.

Rising bond yields

James Gerrish and Shawn Hickman from Market Matters discussed how rising bond yields were weighing on gold in a recent webinar.

Hickman said:

If you can get 5% in the bank with no risk, gold's got to outperform that.

And gold is moving directly with or against bonds. So, as bond [prices] fall, gold's falling.

When US bond yields go up, it weighs on gold.

Bond yields rise when bond prices fall because the interest those bonds pay becomes a larger percentage of their market price.

For example, if a bond that costs $1,000 pays $50 a year in interest, the yield is 5%.

If the bond price falls to $900, that $50 annual interest payment now equals a yield of 5.56%.

The analysts noted that the crowded trade in ASX gold shares had unwound somewhat this year, given the stalled gold price.

Hickman said:

… because we've had so many people overweight the sector. People are holding gold. They haven't got out.

In a lot of cases, you're seeing a bit of a exaggeration move in that regard.

Other factors weighing on demand for gold

As we recently reported, higher interest rates in Australia have pushed everyday savings account rates to 5.5% or higher.

Given that gold is a non-yielding asset, higher interest rates tend to be a headwind for the yellow metal.

The ongoing oil shock is creating resurgent inflation in many nations, including Australia, which means interest rates may rise further.

This may further dampen investor appetite for gold in the short to medium term.

Meanwhile, the US and Iran are reportedly close to a deal that would end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait, through which about 20% of the world's oil and gas supply is shipped, has been effectively at a standstill since early March.

Wong points out that Gulf Cooperation Council nations are some of the world's largest accumulators of reserves.

Their gold purchases are funded mainly by oil exports, which have been stalled due to the effective closure of the Strait.

That means many Middle Eastern nations have not had the revenue to continue buying gold.

Wong said the gold price "does not require outright selling to fall; the loss of incremental buying pressure is sufficient".

He also pointed out that the war led to an aggressive investment capital rotation out of metals and into energy.

This has drawn investment flows away from gold and other metals.

ASX gold shares in 2026

Here is a snapshot of how ASX gold shares have performed in 2026 compared to their rise in 2025.

The post Why has the gold price fallen 17% since the Iran war began? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Over the month just past, the ASX 200 gained 0.8%.

Evolution Mining shares outpaced those gains, closing at $12.14 apiece on 29 May, up 2% for the month.

Newmont shares just trailed the benchmark index, gaining 0.6% in May to close the month trading for $151.27 each.

Northern Star shares were the laggards of the pack. Northern Star shares slumped 10.4% in May, finishing the month at $18.81.

All of the ASX 200 gold stocks faced some modest headwinds, with the gold price declining 1.6% from US$4,614 per ounce on 1 May to US$4,540 on 29 May, the last trading day of the month.

Still, at the close of the month, the gold price remained up more than 32% year on year.

Why did Northern Star shares underperform in May?

Northern Star shares have been under pressure since notching an all-time high of $31.73 in early March.

Among other issues, investors have been concerned over recent production downgrades along with rising cost forecasts.

The ASX 200 gold stock dropped another 2.1% on 21 May. That came after the miner announced that its managing director, Stuart Tonkin, will step down from his position in Q1 FY 2027, after 13 years with the company.

Turning our attention to today, you might have noticed that Northern Star shares are surging 10.7% to $20.49 apiece.

That big leg-up comes amid news (courtesy of The Australian Financial Review) that US hedge fund juggernaut Elliott Management is calling for a major overhaul at the beleaguered Aussie gold giant.

Elliot Management said it now holds more than $1 billion worth of Northern Star shares.

Elliot Management stated:

The market views Northern Star as a poor operator with a pattern of operational missteps and repeated failures to execute capital projects on time and on budget…

Northern Star owes it to its shareholders to promptly explore all strategic alternatives, including a sale of the company. We believe there would be significant strategic interest in Northern Star.

Stay tuned!

How did these other top ASX 200 gold stocks perform in May?

Moving away from the biggest three, here's how these other leading ASX 200 gold stocks stacked up in May amid the 1.6% retrace in the gold price:

• Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) shares fell 4.2%
• Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL) shares gained 2.0%
• Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) shares gained 0.9%
• Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU) shares fell 4.8%
• Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) shares fell 6.5%
• Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX) shares fell 4.1%
• Ora Banda Mining Ltd (ASX: OBM) shares gained 3.8%
• Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP) shares gained 2.1%

The post Buying ASX 200 gold stocks? Here's how Evolution Mining, Newmont and Northern Star shares stacked up in May appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are dropping:

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

The Evolution Mining share price is down 2% to $12.17. Investors have been selling this gold miner's shares on Tuesday following a pullback in the price of the precious metal overnight. Traders were selling gold after US-Iran peace talks ended abruptly and sent oil prices charging higher. This has sparked fears that inflation will rise and lead to interest rate hikes, which would likely be bad news for the gold price.

JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH)

The JB Hi-Fi share price is down 3.5% to $72.44. This appears to reflect broad weakness in the retail sector today. In addition, the retail giant was the subject of a bearish broker note out of Morgan Stanley this morning. According to the note, the broker has retained its underperform rating and $70.00 price target on its shares. It believes the company could fall short of consensus expectations given the weakening housing market.

Scentre Group (ASX: SCG)

The Scentre Group share price is down 4.5% to $3.60. This morning, the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) downgraded this shopping centre operator's shares to an underperform rating (from neutral) with an improved price target of $3.45. The broker made the move largely on valuation grounds, highlighting that the company's shares have risen strongly from their lows and now trade at a premium to net tangible assets.

TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPG)

The TPG Telecom share price is down 7% to $3.71. This follows the release of a first half trading update from the telco at its Investor Day event. TPG Telecom revealed that it expects mobile subscriber growth of 70,000 to 80,000 during the first half of FY 2026 driven by Digital First and MVNO. Home Broadband subscribers are expected to fall 45,000 for the half. It highlights that competitive dynamics remain challenging in NBN. Nevertheless, management has reaffirmed its FY 2026 EBITDA guidance of $1,665 million to $1,735 million (up from $1,637 million in FY 2025). However, it has warned that "EBITDA delivery is anticipated to be weighted to a stronger second-half performance."

The post Why Evolution Mining, JB Hi-Fi, Scentre Group, and TPG Telecom shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Here's what I mean.

Since the close of trade on 2 March – the first day of trading following the onset of the war – the ASX 200 has fallen 5.8%.

Here's how these three top ASX 200 gold stocks have performed over this same period:

• Northern Star shares are down 40.3%
• Evolution Mining shares are down 31.5%
• Newmont shares are down 19.0%

Why have ASX 200 gold stocks been underperforming?

First, I should mention that Northern Star shares have taken a harder hit than most gold producers, primarily due to recent full-year production downgrades and rising cost forecasts.

But all three ASX 200 gold stocks have been sold off amid a material retrace in the gold price.

Indeed, on 2 March, gold was trading for US$5,322 per ounce. Three and a half weeks later, on 26 March, gold had plunged some 18% to US$4,376 per ounce.

The yellow metal has recovered somewhat from those lows to be trading for US$4,519 today. But that's still 15% below the levels it was trading at before the Iran war.

Why has the gold price plunged since the onset of the Iran war?

The declining gold price that's pressured the likes of Northern Star, Evolution Mining, and Newmont shares, was puzzling to some investors, since gold is well known as a haven asset in times of uncertainty.

However, that haven status was overrun by the pressure gold faced as global energy prices rocketed, spurring inflation and investor concerns for higher interest rates ahead.

Gold, which pays no yield itself, tends to perform better in low or declining interest rate environments.

Emanuel Datt, founder of investment firm Datt Capital, noted that the gold price – and by connection ASX 200 gold stocks – also fell as some nations sold off part of their gold reserves.

"Gold is an asset class that has been sold off as countries such as Turkey have been liquidating gold reserves to be able to pay costs from higher energy prices," Datt said (quoted by The Australian Financial Review).

But when, not if, a resolution is reached and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices should come down quickly. This, in turn, will ease global inflationary pressures and central banks' need to hike interest rates.

"The time pressure is weighing on both sides of the war, but I think that we're getting closer to a deal," Datt said.

Atop Newmont and Northern Star shares, Datt also believes Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) and Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) are well-placed to rebound.

ASX 200 gold stocks jumping on new truce hopes

This morning, investors learned that US and Iranian negotiators had agreed to a 60-day truce. A deal that's still awaiting US President Donald Trump's approval.

For some idea of the potential rebound on offer from ASX 200 gold stocks should the truce take hold and lead to a definitive end of the conflict, here's how these top Aussie gold miners are tracking today on the mere hopes of a pause:

• Northern Star shares are up 4.5%
• Ramelius Resources shares are up 3.5%
• Vault Minerals shares are up 3.6%
• Evolution Mining shares are up 4.0%
• Newmont shares are up 4.0%

The post Why ASX 200 gold stocks like Northern Star, Evolution Mining and Newmont shares look like bargain buys now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rebound

The Australian share market looks set to rise on Friday following a positive night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 55 points or 0.65% higher this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.05%, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq stormed 0.9% higher.

Oil prices rise

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) will be on watch on Friday after a positive night for oil prices. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 0.9% to US$89.46 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up slightly to US$94.31 a barrel. Traders are waiting for news on whether the US-Iran ceasefire will be extended.

Mineral Resources shares named as a buy

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares could be good value according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating on the mining and mining services company's shares with an improved price target of $80.50. It said: "Completion of the US$765m MIN-POSCO lithium transaction will accelerate balance sheet deleveraging paired with cash flows from persistent iron ore and lithium market prices. MIN's mining services platform delivers a stable earnings stream that is expected to expand with internal and third-party volume growth. The company is well positioned to execute its next phase of growth with potential to reinstate fully franked dividends."

Gold price recovers

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a good finish to the week after the gold price rebounded overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 1% to US$4,527.9 an ounce. Traders were buying the precious metal after the release of US inflation data which was in line with expectations.

Champion Iron given hold rating

Champion Iron Ltd (ASX: CIA) shares are fully valued now according to analysts at Bell Potter. In response to the iron ore miner's FY 2026 results, the broker has retained its hold rating with a trimmed price target of $4.85 (from $5.00). It said: "CIA expect to ramp-up high-grade concentrate (DRPF grade) production from mid2026. While we expect iron content price premiums for this product, full value-in-use premiums are unlikely to be realised until longer-term offtake is secured. Free cash flow should improve from FY27 as capex rolls off, supporting debt servicing and ongoing dividends. On valuation, we retain our Hold recommendation."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Meantime, brokers have indicated a changed view on several ASX 200 shares, and have upgraded their ratings.

Let's check them out.

Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR)

The Sandfire Resources share price is $19.46, down 1.6% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 copper share has ripped 16%.

UBS upgraded Sandfire Resources shares to a hold rating this week.

The broker increased its 12-month price target from $16.75 to $20.

This implies just 3% upside ahead.

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

The Evolution share price is $12.21, down 3.4% today.

Over the past year, this ASX 200 gold share has climbed 39%.

UBS upgraded Evolution shares to a buy rating this week.

The broker upped its price target from $13.80 to $14.

This suggests a potential 15% upside ahead.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)

The Woolworths share price is $34.84, up 0.6% today.

Over the past six months, this ASX 200 consumer staples share has recovered 18%.

JP Morgan upgraded Woolworths shares to a buy rating this week.

The broker lifted its 12-month price target from $35 to $37.

This implies a potential 6% upside ahead.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES)

The Wesfarmers share price is $78.13, up 0.7% today.

The market's largest consumer discretionary share has lifted 8% over the past month.

Morgans upgraded Wesfarmers shares to a buy rating with an $81.10 price target on Monday.

This indicates possible growth of 4% over the next year. 

Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN)

The Paladin Energy share price is $11.41, up 0.4% today.

Over the past six months, this ASX 200 uranium share has leapt 40%.

Macquarie upgraded the stock to a buy rating with a $13.25 target this week.

This suggests potential capital growth of 16% over the next year. 

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) 

The NAB share price is $37.05, down 1.9% today.

The ASX 200 bank share has fallen 13% in 2026.

Citi upgraded NAB shares to a hold rating this week.

The broker reduced its 12-month price target from $39.25 to $37.40.

This suggests almost no capital growth ahead.

The post 6 ASX 200 shares just upgraded by the experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The gold price may be the headline driver of sector returns, but operational execution, cost discipline, and balance sheet strength ultimately separate the winners from the rest. 

Over the past twelve months, Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) has demonstrated all three with impressive consistency.

The performance gap

Evolution Mining shares have risen approximately 40% over the past twelve months, comfortably outpacing the ASX 200's gain over the same period. 

That outperformance is even more striking when viewed against the backdrop of a sector that has been far from uniformly positive. 

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) issued two production guidance downgrades in FY2026, sending its shares sharply lower.

Against that backdrop, Evolution's consistent delivery has made it stand out as one of the most reliable large-cap gold miner on the ASX in 2026.

What is driving it

The March 2026 quarter update told the story clearly. 

Evolution delivered record group cash flow of $406 million and moved to a net cash position for the first time in the company's history, ending the quarter with net cash of $69 million after repaying all borrowings. 

Gold production came in at 181,533 ounces for the quarter, on track to meet full-year guidance of 710,000 to 780,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of A$1,640 to A$1,760 per ounce. 

At the current gold price of approximately A$4,900 per ounce, that AISC guidance implies margins of more than A$3,100 per ounce, which is among the strongest in Evolution's history. 

The board also approved new capital investments at Cowal, Ernest Henry, and Northparkes during the quarter, reinvesting in organic growth from internally generated cash flow rather than relying on debt or equity dilution. 

In its ASX release, Evolution CEO Lawrie Conway said: 

Our record cash generation in the March quarter reflects the quality of our asset base and the team's continued focus on operational excellence. Moving to a net cash position is a significant milestone and provides us with the financial strength to continue investing in our operations and delivering value for shareholders.

The resource base is growing

Beyond the near-term operational numbers, Evolution's annual Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves Statement, released in May 2026, revealed that Group Mineral Resources have grown to 31 million ounces of gold and 4.2 million tonnes of copper.

Contained gold was up 3% year-on-year led by strong additions at Cowal and Northparkes. 

That growing resource base underpins Evolution's ability to sustain and grow production well beyond the current mine plan, a quality that long-term investors should value highly.

Furthermore, Evolution's copper by-product from Ernest Henry, which contributes meaningfully to the company's AISC calculation, is benefiting from the same copper price surge that is driving excitement across the broader mining sector.

Foolish takeaway

Evolution Mining may not be the flashiest gold stock on the ASX. 

But is able to consistently demonstrate operational reliability, a growing resource base, record cash generation, and a net cash balance sheet.

This gives management the flexibility to keep investing in growth without diluting shareholders.

In a sector where execution risk is always present, that consistency is worth paying for.

The post Why this ASX gold miner is quietly outperforming its peers in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Let's look closer at ten ASX shares that received buy ratings from them. They are as follows:

Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA)

Morgan Stanley is bullish on this diversified food company. This week, it initiated coverage on the Vegemite owner's shares with an overweight rating and $6.70 price target. The Bega Cheese share price ended the week at $5.39.

Catapult Sports Ltd (ASX: CAT)

Bell Potter was pleased with this sports technology company's FY 2026 results. In response, the broker retained its buy rating with an improved price target of $4.65. This compares to its latest share price of $3.57.

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

UBS turned positive on this gold miner and upgraded its shares to a buy rating with an improved price target of $14.00. The Evolution Mining share price ended the week at $12.17.

Gentrack Group Ltd (ASX: GTK)

Bell Potter continues to see value in this software provider's shares. This week, the broker retained its buy rating and $5.70 price target on its shares. This is notably higher than its current share price of $3.18.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

Morgan Stanley put an overweight rating and $36.15 price target on this industrial property company's shares. This compares to its current share price of $30.28. The broker is feeling positive about Goodman ahead of its quarterly update next week.

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1)

Morgans remains positive on this network-as-a-service provider following the announcement of another big contract win for its Latitude business. It has put a buy rating and $15.50 price target on its shares. The Megaport share price ended the week at $13.05.

Qualitas Ltd (ASX: QAL)

The team at Morgans upgraded this real estate investment company's shares to a buy rating this week with a $3.50 price target. This implies potential upside of 20% from its current share price of $2.92.

Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL)

Macquarie is positive on this gold miner's merger plans. After looking at the proposal, the broker has retained its outperform rating and $9.50 price target on Regis Resources' shares. This compares to its current share price of $6.35.

Santos Ltd (ASX: STO)

Citi is bullish on this energy producer and has put a buy rating and $9.00 price target on its shares. The Santos share price ended the week at $8.24.

Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW)

Over at Morgan Stanley, its analysts have also put an overweight rating and reduced price target of $8.00 on this online furniture retailer's shares. This is notably higher than its current share price of $5.04.

The post 10 ASX shares given buy ratings this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rise again

The Australian share market looks set to rise on Friday following a positive night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 42 points or 0.5% higher this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.55%, the S&P 500 rose 0.15%, and the Nasdaq edged 0.1% higher.

Oil prices ease

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) will be on watch on Friday after a subdued night for oil prices. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 0.65% to US$97.59 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.65% to US$104.35 a barrel. Traders were selling oil amid optimism that a US-Iran peace deal could be on the horizon.

BHP and Rio Tinto on watch

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares will be on watch on Friday. Overnight their NYSE-listed shares pushed higher, which may bode well for today's session. The catalyst for this appears to have been another rise in copper prices. The base metal is now up almost 10% since the start of May.

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares such as Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a relatively positive finish to the week after the gold price rose overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.15% to US$4,542.2 an ounce. Falling oil prices have reduced interest rate hike bets and boosted the gold price.

Buy Energy One shares

Energy One Ltd (ASX: EOL) shares could be in the buy zone according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating on the software company's shares with a trimmed price target of $17.10. It said: "We believe AI displacement concerns are unwarranted with EOL as they serve a deeply regulated and sticky industry with mission-critical solutions. Tailwinds remain regarding growing complexity in energy markets, surging European trading volumes and increasing distributed energy resources. These trends reinforce the strength of EOL's positioning as a one-stop-shop provider of software and services, rather than a collection of individual tools. We remain attracted to the company's strong growth profile, expanding margins and impressive SaaS metrics."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Pitt Street has this week sent a research note to its clients, arguing that copper could be the best-performing metal in the 2020s, and has named two producers it says are well placed to benefit.

Let's have a look at what they're saying about copper supply first.

Deficits to grow

Pitt Street Research argues that copper has the potential to mirror gold's stellar performance, as "the emerging supply/demand gap … is only going to continue to grow''.

They added:

Global copper consumption is ~26.5Mt today, and the deficit is a modest ~200,000tpa. But consumption is forecast to rise sharply as EVs (~80kg copper vs ~25kg for ICE cars), renewable energy, grid infrastructure and data centres scale simultaneously. Bloomberg has estimated that demand will reach ~35Mt by 2035 and ~50Mt by 2050.  

Pitt Street said no major new world-class copper deposit had entered production at scale in more than a decade, and existing mines are ageing and ore grades are declining.

New discoveries also take 7-10 years to come into production, they said.

They added:

The crunch will mean significantly higher copper prices. We are already seeing an impact with LME copper prices up >50% in 18 months and believe more growth is to come. ASX will gain exposure to the upside in the copper price. However, not all copper companies are created equal. The companies that will do the best will be the companies that have high-quality projects in favourable jurisdictions with persistent operational performance.

Miners worth a look

In terms of ASX-listed copper producers, Pitt Street Research likes Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR).

While Evolution is mainly thought of as a gold producer, Pitt Street said it has strong copper exposure embedded in its high-quality assets.

Pitt Street said:

Ernest Henry is a large-scale iron oxide copper-gold (IOCG) deposit with a long mine life to at least 2040 and significant resource depth. The operation contains approximately 1.4Mt of copper and 2.8Moz of gold in resources, supporting long-term production of around 50kt copper per annum. Beyond Ernest Henry, Evolution also has exposure through Northparkes, creating a broader copper portfolio. Copper contributes approximately 25% of group revenue, with a strategic target of increasing this to 40% over time. This indicates a deliberate shift towards greater copper leverage.

And finally, to Sandfire, Pitt Street said it had diversified from a single asset producer into a diversified global copper company with producing assets in Europe and Africa.

Pitt Street said:

All things considered, we believe Sandfire represents a direct, scalable and relatively low-cost copper exposure, with both operational stability and growth. In the context of the copper price scenarios, it offers strong leverage in the base and bull cases, while remaining resilient in downside environments due to its cost position.

The post With an "extreme" copper crunch coming, here are 2 shares to buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the time of writing, the Australian gold miner's shares are down 5.27% to $11.32. 

The latest downturn means the shares have now crashed 36% since peaking at an all-time high of $17.67 in early March. The gold stock is also 11% lower year to date but remains 40% higher than a year ago.

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has slumped 1.27% to a seven-week low on Wednesday afternoon.

Why are Evolution Mining shares under pressure today?

There is no price-sensitive news out of Evolution Mining today to explain the latest pull-back.

It's most likely that the slumping gold price is causing investors to sell off their shares.

Trading Economics data shows that gold is trading below US$4,500 per ounce on Wednesday, after tumbling 2% in the previous session. The latest gold price drop means the metal has slumped over 5% in value over the past month.

It looks like investors are fleeing from the safe-haven asset in anticipation that tensions between the US and Iran could reignite. Concerns around higher inflation also puts markets under pressure.

Earlier today, US President Donald Trump warned that he would resume fresh strikes within "two or three days" if Tehran fails to accept Washington's terms.

What sparked the sell-off in March?

Evolution Mining shares dropped sharply in March, mainly for the same reasons they are tumbling now.

Investors sold off their shares in ASX gold mining companies amid a broad market panic. 

Gold prices fell suddenly in late March as markets reacted to shifting expectations for US interest rates and geopolitical tensions. 

It's also likely that investors seized the opportunity to take their profit off the table after a huge share price rally. The miner's shares jumped 39% in the first two months of the calendar year.

As a business, Evolution Mining has been relatively strong this year. In mid-April, the company posted its quarterly update, where it revealed gold production of 170,000 ounces and copper production of 11,000 tonnes. This was achieved with an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $2,220 per ounce, which underpinned record quarterly net mine cash flows.

Earlier this month, the company also released its Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves Statement. The company said its Mineral Resources have grown to 31 million ounces of gold and 4.2 million tonnes of copper over the past year. The miner's contained gold increased by 900,000 ounces, or 3%.

Is the ASX gold stock now a buy, sell, or hold?

TradingView data shows that analysts are mostly positive about the outlook for Evolution Mining shares over the next 12 months.

Half of the 20 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the shares. Another six rate the stock as a hold, and four have a sell or strong sell stance.

The average $14.65 target price implies a potential 29% upside at the time of writing. The maximum target price is $19.55, suggesting a huge 73% upside over the next 12 months. 

The post Evolution Mining shares crash 36% from an all-time high: Buy, sell or hold? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Here is why the story may not be over yet.

Gold hit US$5,417 per ounce in January 2026, a new all-time high, before pulling back amid rising inflation expectations and interest rate uncertainty. 

Today, the yellow metal trades around US$4,730 per ounce, still well above the levels at which Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) can generate substantial free cash flow. 

With several structural tailwinds still intact, the bull case for both stocks remains interesting.

What is driving the gold price

Central bank buying remains robust, with approximately 70% of central banks surveyed at a recent Goldman Sachs conference expecting global gold reserves to rise in 2026. 

Geopolitical tensions across the Middle East, combined with ongoing concerns about Western fiscal sustainability, continue to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Ian Samson, a portfolio manager at Fidelity International, said:

We continue to expect gold to rally in 2026, as the drivers of its strong run remain intact.

Global X forecasts the gold price to hit US$5,000 per ounce in 2026, with the potential to reach US$6,000 if global equity markets deteriorate or geopolitical tensions escalate further.

Evolution Mining

Evolution Mining hit an all-time high share price of $17.75 on 2 March 2026, before pulling back to trade around $13.20 today. 

The company operates six mines across Australia and Canada, generating EBITDA margins above 50% at current gold prices. 

Evolution recently declared a fully-franked dividend of 20 cents per share and has paid fully-franked dividends consistently since August 2017.

Northern Star Resources

Northern Star paid a record fully-franked final dividend of 30 cents per share in September 2025 and an interim dividend of 25 cents in March 2026, both driven by the surging gold price. 

The stock has more recently come under pressure following a profit warning tied to higher operating costs, which sent shares sharply lower. 

For investors with conviction on the gold price outlook, that pullback could represent a more attractive entry point.

Foolish Takeaway

Gold miners carry operational risk, cost inflation risk, and significant sensitivity to the gold price itself. 

But with gold supported by persistent central bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and a structurally weaker US dollar, Evolution Mining and Northern Star both offer compelling ways to participate in the theme for patient, risk-aware investors.

The post Why ASX gold miners Evolution Mining and Northern Star could keep shining in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rise

The Australian share market looks set to rise on Friday following a solid night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 51 points or 0.5% higher this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.75%, the S&P 500 rose 0.75%, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.9%.

Oil prices rise

ASX 200 energy shares such as Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) will be on watch on Friday after a decent night for oil prices. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 0.95% to US$102.00 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 0.9% to US$106.55 a barrel. With no sign of a US-Iran peace deal being agreed, traders have been bidding oil prices higher.

Hold Graincorp shares

Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) shares were out of form and sank 13% on Thursday following the release of its half-year results. The team at Bell Potter doesn't think this is a buying opportunity. This morning, the broker has retained its hold rating with a reduced price target of $5.90 (from $6.80). It said: "Global production forecasts for 2026/27 remain at elevated levels (~2% above the 5YR avg.), suggesting ongoing tight grain trading margins. Oilseed crush margins remain strong and have the potential to be a tailwind as hedge positions rollover."

Gold price falls

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a poor finish to the week after the gold price dropped overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 1.1% to US$4,656 an ounce. Rising oil prices appear to have spooked traders. They may believe higher inflation could increase the risk of rate hikes.

Buy Catapult shares

Catapult Sports Ltd (ASX: CAT) shares are being undervalued by the market according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating on the sports technology company's shares with a trimmed price target of $4.50 (from $4.75). It commented: "Catapult remains our key pick in the tech sector amongst mid cap stocks outside the S&P/ASX 100 index. We see little risk of AI disruption for the stock given its extensive proprietary data, multiple product platform and the hardware component to its solutions."

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) rose 0.91% to close at 8,744.4 points, marking the benchmark's first weekly gain in four weeks.

The long-term outlook for Australian mining is strong, with 5 key drivers behind a new commodities super cycle now underway.

However, the war in Iran and the global oil shock remains a short-term headwind that is expected to drive miners' costs higher in 2026.

As the world awaits Iran's response to the latest peace plan proffered by the US, share markets remain volatile.

Last week, only four of the 11 market sectors finished in the green.

Let's review.

Higher commodity prices boost ASX 200 mining shares

Several ASX 200 mining shares hit new records or multi-year highs as key commodities lifted over the week.

On Friday, the iron ore price was US$110.95 per tonne, up 3.5% over the week, due to strong buying from mainland China.

Trading Economics analysts said:

Sentiment was further lifted by a continued drawdown in steel inventories, which have now declined for seven consecutive weeks, pointing to potential restocking demand for raw materials.

On the macro front, China's manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory, while policymakers in Beijing continued efforts to stabilize the real estate sector, improving the broader economic outlook.

Also last week, the gold price rose 2.2% to US$4,730 per ounce, and silver lifted 6.3% to US$80.61 per ounce.

The copper price increased 3.7% to US$6.25 per pound.

ASX 200 lithium shares had a strong week as lithium prices continued their recovery.

Lithium prices finally bottomed out in mid-2025 after a devastating two-year downward spiral.

Since then, the lithium spodumene price has more than quadrupled to US$2,792 per tonne on Friday.

The lithium carbonate price also reached its highest level since 2023 at US$28,949 per tonne, up 3.5% for the week.

Which ASX mining shares hit new highs last week?

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price increased 5.48% to close out the week at $57.95.

BHP shares reached a 10-week high of $58.71 on Thursday, their highest level since the stock hit a record $59.39 on 3 March.

BHP is now a whisker away from re-taking its traditional crown as the largest company on the ASX 200.

For now, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) remains at the top with just $2.6 billion in market cap separating it from BHP.

The Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) share price lifted 3.93% to close at $178.72 after reaching a new all-time high of $180.33 on Friday.

The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price rose 4.27% to $69.55, after reaching a two-year high of $71.62 on Friday.

The market's largest ASX 200 lithium share, PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) rose 1.95% to $6.26 on Friday.

PLS Group shares also set a new record last week at $6.38 apiece.

Other impressive gains among the miners

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares gained 6.3% to finish the week at $21.27.

ASX 200 copper share Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) lifted 7.33% to $18.01.

The Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC) share price gained 4.3% to $12.37.

Nickel and lithium producer IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) lifted 8.59% to $8.34 per share.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) shares closed the week 1.57% higher at $19.44 apiece.

What about ASX gold shares?

The gold price was US$4,730 per ounce on Friday, up 2.2% over the week and up 9.1% in the calendar year to date.

The market's largest ASX 200 gold share, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) edged 0.05% lower to $21.16 last week.

The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price lifted 7.4% to $13.05, and Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) rose 4.33% to $160.35.

Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) and Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) announced their merger last week.

The Regis Resources share price lost 2.97% to close at $6.85 while Vault Minerals lifted 3.98% to $4.70 per share.

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

The post ASX 200 mining shares smash multi-year highs as key commodity prices rise appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to sink

The Australian share market looks set to sink on Friday following a poor night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 136 points or 1.5% lower this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was down 0.65%, the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, and the Nasdaq edged 0.1% lower.

Oil prices mixed

ASX 200 energy shares including Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) will be on watch on Friday after a mixed night for oil prices. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 0.9% to US$95.91 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.1% to US$101.11 a barrel. Traders appear to be waiting to hear if the US and Iran sign a peace deal.

Major ASX 200 share updates

A number of ASX 200 shares will be on watch when they release their latest updates on Friday. Among the companies that are due to release updates are investment bank Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), property listings company REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA), insurer QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE), and payments leader Block Inc. (ASX: XYZ).

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares including Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a good finish to the week after the gold price pushed higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.65% to US$4,724.1 an ounce. This has been driven by optimism that interest rate hikes will be avoided if a US-Iran peace deal is signed.

TechnologyOne shares upgraded

TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE) shares are undervalued according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has upgraded the enterprise software provider's shares to a buy rating with an improved price target of $31.75. It said: "Technology One announced a new contract with James Cook University (JCU) last month which in our view is significant from a product perspective. […] On the back of this contract win and clear demonstration of "the power of Plus" we have modestly increased our ARR forecasts in each period."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This impressive showing from the local markets comes after a similarly jubilant night over on the American boards.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) was on fire last night, shooting 1.2% higher.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) was even hotter, rising 2.02%.

But let's return ot the ASX now and check out how today's optimism filtered down into the different ASX sectors this session.

Winners and losers

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In late morning trade on Thursday, Evolution Mining shares are up 3.8% at $12.79; Newmont shares are up 2.5% at $159.67, and Northern Star shares are up 2.2% at $21.25 apiece.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.7%.

And, as witnessed by the 3.5% intraday gains posted by the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD), it's not just Evolution, Newmont, and Northern Star shares that have their shine back today.

Here's how these other top ASX 200 gold stocks are tracking at this same time:

• Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) shares are up 5.0% at $3.59
• Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL) shares are up 2.7% at $1.60
• Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) shares are up 4.2% at $6.15
• Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU) shares are up 2.4% at $5.56
• Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) shares are up 5.1% at $4.68
• Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX) shares are up 5.0% at $5.72
• Ora Banda Mining Ltd (ASX: OBM) shares are up 4.1% at $1.33

So, why are the big Aussie gold miners back to outperforming today?

ASX 200 gold stocks jump on Iran peace talk hopes

While each company has its own unique strengths and challenges, the common thread lifting all the above ASX 200 gold stocks looks to be renewed hopes of a peace deal between the United States and Iran.

Overnight news reports indicate that Iran is currently reviewing the latest proposal from the US in an effort to end the conflict.

The gold price jumped more than 3.5% on that news to top US$4,700 per ounce. The yellow metal has retraced a touch since then, trading for US$4,694 per ounce at the time of writing, according to data from Bloomberg.

Despite its haven appeal, gold – and by connection ASX 200 gold stocks – came under heavy selling pressure following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. Indeed, on 27 February, bullion was fetching US$5,279 per ounce.

One of the biggest headwinds facing gold following the outbreak of the war has been the global surge in energy prices.

Why is that of particular importance to the gold price?

Well, as the RBA reminded investors this week, rocketing energy costs are in turn stoking inflation and leading to rising interest rates. And gold, which pays no yield itself, tends to perform better in a low or falling rate environment.

The post How ASX 200 gold stocks like Newmont, Evolution Mining and Northern Star shares have their shine back today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At one point, just before market close, the shares climbed as high as $13.25 each.

The uptick means the shares have now rebounded 38% from a dip in late-March. For the year-to-date Capricorn Metals' shares are still down 10%, but they're 40% higher than this time last year.

For context, the ASX 200 Index closed the day in the red, down 0.2% and is around 6% higher than 12 months ago.

Why did Capricorn Metals shares fly higher on Tuesday?

There wasn't any price sensitive news out of the gold miner today to explain the latest price surge, so the increase is likely due to a combination of positive factors causing a rally in investor interest.

The price of gold tumbled on Monday, before rebounding slightly yesterday. As a gold producer, any movement in the gold price is positive for Capricorn Metals' shares. Although it's important to note that the share price of other major large-cap gold producers such as Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) and Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN), slipped into the red on Tuesday. 

Another potential catalyst could be that positive sentiment has flowed on from the company's March-quarter result last week.

Capricorn Metals posted a strong gold production, a record quarterly cash flow, and a maiden 5 cent per share fully-franked dividend payment to shareholders.

The company also said it is on track to meet the upper end of its FY26 production guidance of 115,000 to 125,000 ounces at an All-in-sustaining cost (AISC) of $1,530 to $1,630 per ounce. 

Year-to-date gold production totals 93,152 ounces at an AISC of $1,623 per ounce.

Capricorn is also making steady progress on its next phase of growth. Development of the Karlawinda Expansion Project (KEP) is advancing well, and work continues at its Mt Gibson Gold Project (MGGP). 

Are the shares a buy, sell or hold?

Following the gold miner's latest update, many analysts have revised their outlook on Capricorn Metals' shares.

Market Index data shows a consensus strong buy rating with a 41% potential upside to $18.46, at the time of writing.

TradingView data shows very similar data, again with a consensus buy rating. Some expect the gold miner's shares to climb 40% to $18.22 but others are more bullish and think the share price could jump another 85% to $24 each.

Whatever the upside over the next 12 months, it looks like Capricorn Metals' shares are at the beginning of a rally.

The post This ASX 200 gold stock rose 10% yesterday: Is it a buy, hold or sell? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are rising more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are climbing:

Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE)

The Boss Energy share price is up 4% to $1.45. This may have been driven by a broker note out of Bell Potter this morning. According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating and $1.80 price target on its shares. It commented: "We maintain our Buy recommendation and target price. The critical catalyst for BOE remains the upcoming results from the wide-spaced wellfield program. BOE has leverage to rising uranium prices which we hold a positive long term view on."

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL)

The Coles Group share price is up 2% to $22.55. Investors have been buying the supermarket giant's shares following the release of its third-quarter sales update. Coles reported total group sales revenue of $10.7 billion for the 12 weeks to 29 March 2026, representing a 3.1% increase on the prior corresponding period. The Supermarkets division was the key driver of this growth. It delivered sales revenue of $9.8 billion, which was up 4% on the prior corresponding period. Comparable sales increased by 3.6%. Coles Group CEO, Leah Weckert, said: "We delivered another strong sales result reflecting the strength of our customer offer and disciplined execution against our strategic priorities."

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

The Evolution Mining share price is up 2.5% to $12.20. This morning, this gold miner released its annual mineral resources and ore reserves statement. The company revealed that its group mineral resources have grown to 31 million ounces of gold and 4.2 million tonnes of copper. Evolution Mining's CEO, Lawrie Conway, said: "Our Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves Statement for December 2025 has seen Group Mineral Resources grow to 31Moz of contained gold. This demonstrates the scale and longevity of our long-life, high-quality portfolio, complemented by our current expansion studies that offer further upside. We also see clear potential to grow copper resources from the current 4.2Mt, with targeted exploration accelerating around Ernest Henry and Northparkes over the next year."

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

The Mineral Resources share price is up 4% to $66.49. This may have also been driven by a bullish broker note out of Bell Potter. This morning, the broker retained its buy rating on the mining and mining services company's shares with an improved price target of $75.00. It said: "MIN is positioned to benefit from current lithium market pricing strength, holding around 213ktpa (SC6 attributable, pre-POSCO deal completion) of offline spodumene production capacity. MIN's mining services platform delivers a stable earnings stream that is expected to expand with internal and third-party volume growth."

The post Why Boss Energy, Coles, Evolution Mining, and Mineral Resources shares are charging higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Two of the large-cap ASX stocks are outperforming the 0.9% gains posted by the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) as we head into the Friday lunch hour, while one is lagging that performance.

Here's why these companies are making headlines today.

Coles shares gain on revenue growth

Coles shares are up 1.6% at time of writing, changing hands for $22.47 apiece.

Investors are bidding up the ASX 200 supermarket giant following the release of Cole's March quarter update (Q3 FY 2026).

Highlights for the 12 weeks to 29 March included a 3.1% year-on-year increase in revenue to $10.70 billion.

The company's eCommerce division was a standout performer, with eCommerce sales up 24.8% from Q3 FY 2025 to $1.33 billion.

"We delivered another strong sales result reflecting the strength of our customer offer and disciplined execution against our strategic priorities," CEO Leah Weckert said of the results helping lift Coles shares today.

Evolution Mining shares jump on increased gold reserves

Like Coles shares, Evolution Mining shares are also outperforming today.

Shares in the ASX 200 gold stock are trading for $12.15 each at time of writing, up 2.1%.

This follows the release of the Aussie gold miner's Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves Statement.

Evolution Mining reported that over the year its Mineral Resources have grown to 31 million ounces of gold and 4.2 million tonnes of copper. The miner's contained gold increased by 900,000 ounces, or 3%.

"This demonstrates the scale and longevity of our long-life, high-quality portfolio, complemented by our current expansion studies that offer further upside," Evolution Mining CEO Lawrie Conway.

Which brings us to…

ANZ shares slip despite cash profit surge

Joining Evolution Mining and Coles shares in the financial headlines today we have ANZ.

Shares in the ASX 200 bank stock are down 1.3% at time of writing, trading for $36.16 each.

That fall comes despite ANZ reporting some solid half year results this morning.

Over the six-month period, ANZ achieved a cash profit of $3.78 billion, up 70% from the prior half.

On the passive income front, ANZ declared an interim dividend of 83 cents per share, franked at 75%. That's in line with last year's interim dividend.

"Our transformation is running at pace, and we are making good progress in executing our five immediate priorities safely, sustainably, and on time," ANZ CEO Nuno Matos said.

The post Why is everyone talking about ANZ, Evolution Mining and Coles shares on Friday? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.