Gold surged through 2025 as investors piled into the safe-haven asset. But since peaking in late January, the gold price has pulled back roughly 20% during the first weeks of the Iran war, dragging many ASX gold stocks lower along with it.

That weakness could be an opportunity. Here are three reasons investors may want to consider Evolution Mining this month.

Volatility is normal, bigger picture still holds

Recent price swings might look concerning, but they're not unusual.

According to VanEck, gold often behaves this way during periods of geopolitical stress:

Gold's March performance surprised many investors. Despite a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions, gold prices pulled back after briefly retesting record highs. That kind of price action may seem counterintuitive, but it is not unusual in periods of crisis.

In other words, short-term volatility doesn't necessarily break the long-term trend. Once markets settle, the same drivers that helped push gold to record levels — including macro uncertainty and demand for safe-haven assets — are still firmly in place.

Evolution will be one of the ASX gold stocks to take advantage of that.

Record cash flow highlights operational strength

Evolution Mining isn't just riding the gold price. The ASX gold stock is also executing well operationally.

Its latest quarterly update delivered record cash flow, underscoring the strength of its asset base and cost discipline. Strong cash generation gives the company flexibility to reinvest, reduce debt, and return capital to shareholders.

That kind of financial performance can help support the share price even when the commodity cycle turns volatile.

Solid upside plus income

Morgans just upgraded the ASX gold stock from hold to accumulate. The brokers believes that the recent weakness across the gold sector "has uncovered value in a high-quality name". Morgans did trim its 12-month target from $17.16 to $16.10, suggesting a 20% upside at current levels.

Bell Potter also remains positive on the outlook. It has retained a buy rating on the ASX 200 gold stock, with a slightly reduced price target of $16.45.

And there's more. The broker is also forecasting a 3.5% dividend yield, lifting the total potential return to over 25%. For investors looking for both growth and income, that's an appealing combination.

Foolish Takeaway

ASX gold stocks may have cooled in recent weeks, but the long-term thesis hasn't disappeared.

With strong cash flow, supportive macro drivers, and broker-backed upside, Evolution Mining could be worth a closer look this April.

The post 3 reasons to buy this ASX gold stock in April appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Does the broker rate them as buys, holds, or sells? Let's find out:

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

This gold miner delivered a solid quarterly update this week despite battling bad weather and maintenance impacts.

In response, Morgans has upgraded Evolution Mining's shares to an accumulate rating with a $16.10 price target. Commenting on the company, the broker said:

Gold production met expectations despite weather and maintenance impacts, with weaker copper and higher AISC driven by Ernest Henry disruptions. Strong 4Q26 expected to achieve FY26 guidance. Achieves net cash position with an updated capital management policy expected at its FY26 result in August. We upgrade to an ACCUMULATE (from HOLD) following recent weakness across the gold sector which we believe has uncovered value in a high-quality name, despite a strong share price reaction post the result.

Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL)

Another ASX share that Morgans has been looking at is Netwealth. In response to the investment platform provider's quarterly update, the broker has retained its accumulate rating with a $29.00 price target.

The broker notes that although Netwealth's fund under administration (FUA) fell short of expectations, this was due to market weakness. And with the market rebounding this month, it believes its FUA will have improved in the fourth quarter. It explains:

NWL's 3Q26 net-flows of $3.96bn came in modestly ahead of expectations, however market volatility during the period eroded this solid performance to see 3Q26 FUA ending the quarter flat QoQ at A$125.8bn, (vs. Consensus A$129.8bn). Despite ongoing volatility and uncertainty tied to a US/Middle East conflict and a potential resolution, market momentum has recovered from peak pessimism in the March Quarter, with the ASX All Ordinaries +5.6% month-to-date in April'26, which will have seen FUA growth momentum improve post quarter end.

Looking through this near-term volatility NWL remains on track [to] deliver solid growth FY26F and well placed to capitalise on the long runway of opportunity ahead. We retain our ACCUMULATE rating, with a Price target of $29.00/sh.

Nufarm Ltd (ASX: NUF)

Finally, Morgans was pleased with this agricultural chemicals company's guidance for the first half of FY 2026. It notes that its earnings are slightly ahead of expectations and its balance sheet deleveraging is far better than expected.

As a result, it has reaffirmed its buy rating with a $4.05 price target. It said:

Pleasingly, NUF's 1H26 EBITDA guidance was slightly higher than expected and it has had a strong 1H. Importantly, its leverage guidance is materially better than expected. Initial outlook comments for the 2H26 were positive and a new A$50m cost out program has been announced.

Given the appreciation in active ingredient and fish oil prices, NUF's previous FY26 guidance could prove to be conservative. NUF is our key pick of the ag and chemical sector. The company is materially undervalued and we reiterate our BUY rating with a new price target of A$4.05.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Evolution Mining, Netwealth, and Nufarm shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall

The Australian share market looks set to edge slightly lower on Friday despite a decent night in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 12 points or 0.15% lower this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.25%, the S&P 500 rose 0.25% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.35%.

Oil prices rise

It could be a good finish to the week for ASX 200 energy shares such as Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices rose overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 2.1% to US$93.19 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 1.7% to US$89.65 a barrel. This was driven by concerns over Iran-US peace talks and the Strait of Hormuz.

Zip results

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) shares will be on watch today when the buy now pay later provider releases its eagerly anticipated third-quarter update. According to a note out of Citi, its analysts are expecting Zip to announce an improved US net transaction margin despite rising bad debts as a percentage of total transaction value.

Gold price edges lower

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a subdued finish to the week after the gold price edged lower overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 0.25% to US$4,810.9 an ounce. Inflation and rate hike fears continue to weigh on the precious metal.

Buy Netwealth shares

Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) shares could be good value according to Bell Potter. In response to the investment platform provider's quarterly update, the broker has retained its buy rating and $30.00 price target on its shares. It said: "Following the update, we have downgraded our EPS estimates -1% contained within FY27 and driven by steadier average FUA balances and take-rates. Our Buy rating is unchanged. NWL has de-rated to trade on 28x forward EBITDA consistent with prior risk off environments and compares to 33x through-the-cycle. We would expect the earnings catalysts and sentiment exposure to drive enhanced shareholder returns."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Australia has just two oil refineries, both of which have been running full tilt since the Iran war began.

The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has created a significant energy shock, with oil and gas prices soaring.

This has sparked fears of higher inflation and further increases in interest rates in Australia.

Meanwhile, some ASX 200 shares have attracted upgrades from the experts this week.

Let's take a look.

Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC)

The Whitehaven share price is $8.42, down 0.9% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 coal share has fallen 9%.

Morgan Stanley upgraded Whitehaven shares to a buy rating today.

But the broker shaved its 12-month price target from $9.80 to $9.75.

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

The Evolution share price is $13.89, down 3.9%.

Over the past month, the ASX 200 gold mining share has lifted 6%.

Morgans upgraded Evolution shares from hold to accumulate yesterday.

However, the broker reduced its 12-month target from $17.16 to $16.10.

Morgans said:

We upgrade to an ACCUMULATE (from HOLD) following recent weakness across the gold sector which we believe has uncovered value in a high-quality name, despite a strong share price reaction post the result.

The gold price fell 21% during the first three weeks of the Iran war.

The A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

The A2 Milk share price is $7.56, down 2%.

Over the past month, the ASX 200 consumer staples share has tumbled 20%.

Morgans upgraded A2 Milk shares from a hold rating to accumulate on Monday.

However, the broker lowered its share price target from $9.50 to $8.70.

This followed a trading update from A2 Milk.

Morgans said:

A2M's FY26 earnings downgrade was due to factors largely out of its own control, being higher freight/supply chain costs associated with the conflict in the Middle East and delays getting product released (enhanced testing and customs clearance) following peer recalls.

Importantly, the demand for its products is strong.

Guidance has been revised due to supply constraints (lower sales and product mix issues dilute margins) and higher costs.

In our view, while some of the issues are one-off in nature, increased costs associated with the conflict are likely to continue into FY27.

Despite this, we still expect strong growth in FY27 given A2 Pokeno is expected to break even and new China label (CL) IF products will be launched.

Ingenia Communities Group (ASX: INA)

The Ingenia Communities share price is $4.11, up 1.1%.

Over the past month, the ASX 200 property share has eased 0.4%.

UBS upgraded Ingenia shares to a buy rating today.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $4.60.

The post 4 ASX 200 shares newly upgraded this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

However, since the commodity price peaked in late January, it has declined significantly. 

Along with it, many ASX gold shares have dropped too. 

According to VanEck, this kind of movement is typical of similar geopolitical events. 

Gold's March performance surprised many investors. Despite a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions, gold prices pulled back after briefly retesting record highs. That kind of price action may seem counterintuitive, but it is not unusual in periods of crisis.

VanEck reinforced that gold and gold equities have come under pressure, but once the current period of volatility subsides, the same drivers that supported gold above US$5,000 remain in place.

With that in mind, here are three ASX gold shares generating positive outlooks from experts. 

Brightstar Resources Ltd (ASX: BTR)

Brightstar Resources is a gold development company. It is currently working on bringing its Sandstone and Goldfields projects in Western Australia into production. 

Recently, the team at Canaccord Genuity placed a $2.40 price target on this ASX gold stock. 

Analysts said its recent capital raise means the company should be "comfortably funded" through to first gold production.

From yesterday's closing price of $0.41, this price target indicates a big upside potential of more than 480%. 

Saturn Metals Ltd (ASX: STN)

This ASX gold stock is primarily focused on its 100% owned Apollo Hill Gold Project, located in Western Australia.

The stock price has doubled over the last 12 months. 

It is also drawing a positive outlook from Canaccord Genuity, driven by three shifts:

• Decades of management experience reduces risk
• WA offers ideal conditions
• Modern workflows assess heap leach viability earlier and more accurately

Subsequently, the broker has a speculative buy rating and a price target of $1 a share.

From yesterday's closing price of $0.56, this indicates a potential further gain of 78%. 

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

Evolution Mining is another ASX gold stock with upside, this time, according to the team at Bell Potter. 

It is one of Australia's largest listed gold miners. The company engages in exploration, development, and production activities in both Australia and Canada.

The team at Bell Potter recently retained its buy rating on the ASX 200 gold stock with a price target of $16.45, following the company's quarterly report.

From yesterday's closing price of $14.45, this indicates a healthy 14% upside.

The broker is also forecasting an attractive 3.5% dividend yield over the period.

The post 3 ASX gold shares to buy after the recent pullback appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

To narrow things down, let's take a look at one ASX 200 gold stock that Bell Potter is bullish on.

Which ASX 200 gold stock?

The gold miner that Bell Potter is tipping as a buy is Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN).

It notes that the company released its quarterly update this week. While it wasn't blown away with the update, the broker remains positive given its strong cash flow generation. Commenting on the quarter, Bell Potter said:

EVN has reported a weaker March quarter 2026 result, in-line with management commentary and previously disclosed operational disruptions at Ernest Henry (flooding) and Cowal (bi-annual mill shutdown). Group production was 170.1koz gold and 10.8kt copper (vs BPe 171.0koz gold and 16.6kt copper).

While the March quarter suffered from operational and weather disruptions resulting in lower production and higher costs QoQ, this had been flagged to the market. That EVN still generated near-record free cash flow under these circumstances helped a strong positive reaction. We also believe consistent commentary on maintaining capital discipline, investing in high-returning organic growth projects and an aversion to hoarding cash has been well received by the market. We forecast EVN to declare fully-franked dividends of 50cps in FY26, up from 20cps in FY25.

Time to buy?

According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating on the ASX 200 gold stock with a slightly trimmed price target of $16.45 (from $16.60).

Based on its current share price of $14.45, this implies potential upside of 14% for investors over the next 12 months.

In addition, Bell Potter is forecasting an attractive 3.5% dividend yield over the period. This boosts the total potential return to over 17%.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:

EPS changes on this update are -6% for FY26, FY27 and FY28 are unchanged. Changes to our operational assumptions are minor. EVN offers effectively unhedged gold and copper exposure via a portfolio of high quality, long-life assets in Tier 1 jurisdictions, overseen by a high-quality management team. EVN has stated its intention to pass growing free cash flows on to shareholders. Our NPV-based Target Price drops 1% to $16.45/sh and we retain our Buy recommendation.

The post Why this ASX 200 gold stock could be a strong buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 set to open flat

The Australian share market looks set for a subdued session on Thursday despite a relatively good night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day flat this morning. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is down 0.25%, the S&P 500 is up 0.6% and the Nasdaq is 1.2% higher.

Buy Evolution Mining shares

Bell Potter thinks investors should be buying Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating on the gold miner's shares with a trimmed price target of $16.45. It said: "EVN offers effectively unhedged gold and copper exposure via a portfolio of high quality, long-life assets in Tier 1 jurisdictions, overseen by a high-quality management team. EVN has stated its intention to pass growing free cash flows on to shareholders."

Oil prices mixed

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a subdued session on Thursday after oil prices traded mixed. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 0.1% to US$91.30 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.1% to US$88.12 a barrel. Traders appear to be waiting to see what happens with US-Iran peace talks.

Nufarm shares rated as a buy

Nufarm Ltd (ASX: NUF) shares could continue to rise after surging 11% on Wednesday. That's the view of analysts at Bell Potter, who have put a buy rating and $3.60 price target on the agricultural chemicals company's shares. It said: "NUF has provided a trading update, highlighting +16-19% YoY growth in 1H26 uEBITDA and a deleveraging of the balance sheet slightly ahead of expectations."

Gold price softens

ASX 200 gold shares including Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a soft session on Thursday after the gold price dropped overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 0.65% to US$4,817.9 an ounce. Traders continue to wait for news from the US-Iran peace talks before making any major moves.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are rising more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are storming higher:

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

The Evolution Mining share price is up 7% to $14.16. Investors have been buying the gold miner's shares following the release of its quarterly update. The company reported March quarterly gold production of 170,000 ounces and copper production of 11,000 tonnes. This was achieved with an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $2,220 per ounce, which underpinned record quarterly net mine cash flows. At Mungari it generated $175 million and at Red Lake it generated $104 million in net mine cash flow. Evolution Mining's CEO, Lawrie Conway, said: "Evolution continues to generate significant cash flows from consistent operational delivery and disciplined capital allocation. We have rapidly deleveraged by more than 31% in just over two years, reaching a net cash position by the end of March."

Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB)

The Mesoblast share price is up 8% to $2.17. This morning, the biotechnology company announced the acquisition of an exclusive worldwide license to a patented chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) technology platform for precision-enhanced augmentation of therapeutic mesenchymal lineage stromal cell (MSC) products. Mesoblast advised that it plans to incorporate the engineered CARs to further boost effectiveness of its products, with the goal of enhancing the target specificity and augmenting inherent properties of immunomodulation and tissue regeneration.

Nufarm Ltd (ASX: NUF)

The Nufarm share price is up almost 13% to $2.50. This follows the release of a trading update from the agricultural chemicals company this morning. Nufarm revealed that it expects first-half underlying EBITDA to come in between $239 million and $244 million. At the midpoint, that represents 17% growth on the prior corresponding period. This is being driven by better margins in Crop Protection, growth in Hybrid Seeds, and improved contributions from its omega-3 and bioenergy platforms.

Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VGN)

The Virgin Australia share price is up 8% to $2.54. This has been driven by the release of an update from the airline operator today. Virgin Australia advised that its FY 2026 financial guidance remains unchanged, with underlying EBIT and EBIT margin expected to improve in the second half despite a surge in fuel prices. While higher fuel costs are impacting its business, its hedging has helped offset much of the impact. It said: "For the remainder of 2HFY26, the Group is hedged 92% for Brent crude oil and 71% for refining margins. […]  This is expected to result in an increase of fuel costs for 2HFY26 of approximately $30-40m compared to previous expectations."

The post Why Evolution Mining, Mesoblast, Nufarm, and Virgin Australia shares are storming higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

And it caps off an already stellar run. Over the past 12 months, the ASX mining stock surged 73%, comfortably outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has risen almost 16% over the same period.

So what's driving today's surge?

Record cash flow

Let's dig deeper. During the March 2026 quarter, Evolution generated a massive $406 million in group cash flow, a record result that immediately caught the market's attention.

Even more importantly, the company has now moved into a net cash position. That's a big deal for a mining stock. It signals a stronger balance sheet, greater flexibility, and the ability to fund growth while still rewarding shareholders.

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Lawrie Conway said:

Evolution continues to generate significant cash flows from consistent operational delivery and disciplined capital allocation. We have rapidly deleveraged by more than 31% in just over two years, reaching a net cash position by the end of March. There is further cash flow upside in the June quarter as we remain on track to deliver on guidance. Our financial position is outstanding with $1,371 million in cash and no debt repayments due until FY29.

Good performance key assets

And the strength wasn't isolated. Record quarterly net mine cash flows from Mungari and Red Lake stood out, highlighting just how well key assets are performing. Across the board, operational delivery remained solid, with the company continuing to execute at a high level.

There's more. Evolution remains on track to deliver full-year FY26 gold production at a lower cost than originally guided. That's a rare combination that investors love. While copper production is expected to land at the lower end of guidance due to weather disruptions at Ernest Henry, the broader picture remains firmly positive.

Then there's the income story. The ASX mining stock paid its 26th consecutive dividend in April, returning $399 million in cash to shareholders. That kind of consistency reinforces its appeal as both a growth and income play.

What next for the ASX mining stock

Looking ahead, growth is also front of mind. Investments in organic projects at Northparkes and Ernest Henry are progressing on time and on budget, setting the stage for future expansion.

At the same time, exploration is delivering results, with high-grade drilling hits at Mungari and Cowal and multiple targets advancing across North Queensland and Canada. That adds another layer of upside.

And management isn't slowing down. The company expects to further improve its net cash position in the June quarter, assuming current commodity prices hold. With projects ramping up and operational improvements continuing, production growth and efficiency gains look well supported.

The post Why is this $25 billion ASX mining stock charging higher today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Evolution Mining report?

• Group net cash position of $42 million as at 31 March 2026, up from net debt in prior quarters
• March quarter group cash flow of $406 million ($2,482/oz)
• Record quarterly net mine cash flows: Mungari ($175 million) and Red Lake ($104 million)
• March quarter gold production of 170,000 ounces and copper production of 11,000 tonnes
• All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) of $2,220/oz for the quarter
• Total cash balance of $1,371 million, up $404 million; no debt repayments until FY29

What else do investors need to know?

The company remains on track to deliver full year FY26 gold production at a lower cost than originally guided, even as group copper production is expected around the low end of guidance due to recent weather events at Ernest Henry. Investments in organic growth projects at Northparkes and Ernest Henry are proceeding on time and budget, positioning Evolution for future expansion.

During the period, Evolution announced exciting high-grade drilling results at Mungari and Cowal, and advanced multiple exploration targets in North Queensland and Canada. The company paid its 26th consecutive dividend in April, with $399 million paid in cash.

What did Evolution Mining management say?

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Lawrie Conway said:

Evolution continues to generate significant cash flows from consistent operational delivery and disciplined capital allocation. We have rapidly deleveraged by more than 31% in just over two years, reaching a net cash position by the end of March. There is further cash flow upside in the June quarter as we remain on track to deliver on guidance. Our financial position is outstanding with $1,371 million in cash and no debt repayments due until FY29.

What's next for Evolution Mining?

Looking ahead, Evolution expects to further improve its net cash position in the June quarter, assuming current spot prices hold. The ramp up of new projects and continued operational improvements should support production growth and efficiency gains.

The board-approved organic growth initiatives at key operations are on schedule and budget, while ongoing exploration across the group is targeting further resource upside. Management says Evolution remains committed to disciplined capital allocation and steady returns to shareholders.

Evolution Mining share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Evolution Mining shares have risen 61%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 15% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Evolution Mining delivers record cash flow and moves to net cash appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

That's because the team at Bell Potter has just named one ASX 200 gold stock to buy now.

Which ASX 200 gold stock?

The gold miner that the broker is bullish on is Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN).

Bell Potter has been looking ahead to the company's quarterly update and is expecting a decent performance, albeit with some weather and operational disruptions. It said:

With this update we have made allowances for various weather and operational disruptions that have eventuated during the March quarter, causing us to shift some production from the March quarter to the June quarter and overall result in a modest reduction to our FY26 production forecasts.

Lower gold production is partially offset by higher copper production. All-In-Sustaining-Costs (AISC) are marginally higher overall. Our near-term commodity price forecasts are up (2%-11% for gold, 1% for copper) and partially offset by a higher exchange rate. The net impact is a 14% reduction to our FY26 earnings forecast and a 5% reduction to our full year dividend distribution forecast.

The good news is the broker believes the ASX 200 gold stock is well placed to deal with any energy security issues caused by war in the Middle East. It adds:

We view EVN as relatively well placed to deal with potential energy security issues. It benefits from grid electrical power to all the processing plants in its asset portfolio, removing exposure to diesel power generation. EVN's mining production is dominated (~60%) by underground mining which is less diesel intensive than open-pit mining. Its open-pit operations (Cowal and Mungari) both hold substantial ore stockpiles, including ~5yrs mill feed at Cowal and 12-18 months mill feed at Mungari.

EVN is also relatively less exposed to flight restrictions, with all its operations (other than Ernest Henry) having largely residential workforces rather than Fly-In-Fly-Out (FIFO). While risks remain, we believe this provides EVN with greater optionality in contingency planning compared with most peers. We expect these options and the outlook on input costs to be a key focus of the quarterly.

Major upside potential

According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating on Evolution Mining's shares with a slightly trimmed price target of $16.60 (from $16.70).

Based on its current share price of $12.88, this implies potential upside of almost 29% for investors over the next 12 months.

It also expects an attractive 4% dividend yield over the forecast period, lifting the total return further.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:

EVN offers effectively unhedged gold and copper exposure via a portfolio of high quality, long-life assets in Tier 1 jurisdictions and overseen by a high-quality management team. EVN has stated its intention to pass growing free cash flows on to shareholders. Our NPV-based Target Price is lowered 1% to $16.60/sh and we retain our Buy recommendation.

The post Is this one of the best ASX 200 gold stocks to buy now? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back on Tuesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 set to jump

The Australian share market looks set for a strong session on Tuesday following a positive start to the week in the US. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 122 points or 1.35% higher. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.6%, the S&P 500 rose 1%, and the Nasdaq pushed 1.2% higher.

Oil prices rise

It could be a good session for ASX 200 energy shares Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) after oil prices rose overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 1.5% to US$98.00 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 3.4% to US$98.39 a barrel. Traders were buying oil after the US blockaded Iranian ports.

Buy Pro Medicus shares

The team at Bell Potter remains bullish on Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME) shares following the announcement of a new contract renewal. In response, the broker has retained its buy rating and $226.00 price target. It said: "Longer term, the outlook remains strong with PME FY27 exam revenues expected to benefit from full period benefit of implementations in the current half including the two largest cohorts of the Trinity Health contract plus the Big Bang implementation at U. Colorado covering radiology and cardiology"

Gold price falls

ASX 200 gold shares such as Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) could have a relatively subdued session on Tuesday after the gold price fell overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 0.5% to US$4,763.3 an ounce. A stronger US dollar put pressure on the precious metal.

Hold A2 Milk shares

On Monday, A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) shares crashed 13% following a guidance downgrade. This morning, Bell Potter has responded by retaining its hold rating with a reduced price target of $8.35 (from $9.55). It said: "While some of the issues are likely to be temporary in nature (such as elevated air freight) they may well persist into 1Q27e as in-market inventory levels are restored. The deterioration in FY26e margin expectations, when supply chain issues were flagged by SM1 in Feb'26 and are now below Aug'25 guidance levels on a higher revenue base is somewhat concerning, given returning ingredient COG inflation."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to edge lower

The Australian share market looks set to edge lower on Friday despite a decent night in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 5 points lower this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.6%, the S&P 500 rose 0.6% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.8%.

Oil prices rebound

It could be a good finish to the week for ASX 200 energy shares such as Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices rebounded overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 4.65% to US$98.80 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 2% to US$96.68 a barrel. This was driven by concerns over the US-Iran ceasefire sticking.

Buy Life360 shares

Life360 Inc (ASX: 360) shares could be undervalued according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $35.50. It said: "There is, therefore, some risk around the Q1 result – scheduled to be released on 12th May – and the potential of a downgrade or softening of the global MAU growth target though, on the flip side, reiteration of the guidance could be taken positively as it would show confidence in the outlook."

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a decent finish to the week after the gold price rose slightly overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.2% to US$4,785.9 an ounce. Ceasefire concerns and the release of US inflation data were behind the rise.

Buy Northern Star shares

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares could be cheap according to Bell Potter. Ahead of the release of its quarterly update and following the announcement of a share buyback, the broker has retained its buy rating and $35.00 price target. It said: "The buy-back has minimal impact on our EPS estimates going forward, however the signalling of value in the underlying business is of more importance. As noted above, we see NST as hitting the bottom of production and earnings downgrades, with some margin compression to come from the impact of fuel prices."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The yellow metal ended February trading for US$5,279 an ounce, according to data from Bloomberg. By the time the smoke cleared on 31 March, that same ounce was trading for US$4,668, down 11.2%.

As you'd expect, this put some serious pressure on ASX gold stocks, which had counted among the top performers on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) over the year to March.

Indeed, while the ASX 200 slumped 7.8% in March, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) declined a painful 23.9%.

As for some of the leading ASX 200 gold stocks, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares fell 32.8% in March; Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares dropped 14.5%; and Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) dropped 23.9%.

Here's what put the gold price, and ASX gold stocks, under selling pressure.

Easy liquidity outweighs haven status

Noting that March was the weakest month for the gold price since June 2013, the World Gold Council (WGC) said, "Gold lost value in all major currencies, but remains up on the year."

The big sell-off followed the outbreak of the Iran war at the end of February.

While that kind of geopolitical turmoil should favour haven assets like gold, the yellow metal also is often among the first assets investors will sell when they need access to funds amid broader stock market declines.

"The 12% fall in price over the month is attributed to deleveraging and liquidity dynamics that favoured sellers, not fundamentals, which remain supportive," the WGC noted.

According to the WGC:

Gold's sell‑off during the first three weeks of March was sharp, counter‑intuitive, but not unprecedented. It occurred against a backdrop normally supportive for gold: elevated geopolitical tensions and renewed inflation concerns. The episode is a reminder that gold is not a contractual hedge.

The gold price, and ASX gold stocks like Northern Star and Newmont, also faced headwinds in March with the Iran war sending energy prices soaring the world over. This could fuel inflation and potentially increase interest rates. Gold, which pays no yield itself, tends to perform better in a low or falling rate environment.

What now for the gold price?

Looking ahead, the WGC said that some early signs of stabilisation are emerging.

Among the positive signs for a rebound in the gold price, the WGC noted that early April exchange traded fund (ETF) flows into gold have been positive across regions.

As for the Iran war's impact on interest rates in critical economies like the US, the WGC said:

Policy tightening is likely to be rhetorical (in the US) and expectations of hikes could get unwound quickly. Any energy driven CPI impulse is likely to result in demand destruction, limiting pass through to core inflation and reinforcing the case for an eventual dovish pivot.

But there are certainly risks that the gold price could face further pressure.

According to the WGC:

Should the conflict keep oil prices well in excess of US$100/bbl for an extended period – given that the somewhat muted response was reportedly due to buffers that no longer exist – this could risk further cross‑asset deleveraging, yield blow-outs, or gold mobilisation by the official sector.

Stay tuned!

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Will the market be able to bounce back on Tuesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 set to open flat

The Australian share market looks set to open flat on Tuesday despite a decent start to the week in the US. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the week right where it ended the last one. In late trade on Wall Street, the Dow Jones is up 0.35%, the S&P 500 is up 0.45%, and the Nasdaq is 0.55% higher.

Oil prices rise

It could be a good session for ASX 200 energy shares Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) after oil prices rose again overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 0.8% to US$112.44 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 0.3% to US$109.35 a barrel. Oil prices pushed higher after Donald Trump reiterated threats to bomb Iranian infrastructure.

Lovisa given hold rating

The Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV) share price is close to fair value according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its hold rating on the fashion jewellery retailer's shares with a heavily reduced price target of $24.00 (from $33.50). It said: "We highly rate LOV's strong gross margin outlook, long term store opportunity upside, further prospects arising from changes in the competitive dynamics in US/UK/South Africa, together with strong execution and leadership. On the flipside, we see elevated risks within the core Australian market with a fast-growing competitor and factor in further declines in comparable store sales for the region."

Gold price edges higher

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) could have a positive session on Tuesday after the gold price edged higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.1% to US$4,684.1 an ounce. Traders were buying gold as Trump's deadline for Iran neared.

Nufarm named as a buy

The team at Bell Potter has named Nufarm Ltd (ASX: NUF) shares as a buy with a $3.60 price target. This implies potential upside of over 70% for investors. Commenting on the agricultural chemicals company, it said: "We are now beginning to enter the most material selling windows for NUF and the majority of markets look supportive of reasonable demand levels of crop protection products."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Both the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and the gold price have been weaker since the start of the war in late February, which can present a buying opportunity.

Volatility remains

The Canaccord team does say to proceed with caution however.

They said in a research note to clients this week:

With the US appearing to now be actively seeking an off-ramp, our central case continues to be that a resolution to the conflict will be struck over the coming weeks. However, the risk of an escalation in hostilities and more prolonged conflict is still a scenario that needs to be factored into the investment strategy equation. We remain well diversified given elevated levels of uncertainty; however, we are not bearishly positioned.

On the interest rates front, Canaccord said the recent, second rate rise in Australia, "with a bias to do more", increases the risk of a sharper slowdown in growth later this year.

They said further:

Higher interest rates will weigh on consumption and business confidence, while global uncertainty linked to geopolitical tensions also threatens to dampen external demand over coming months. Governor Bullock acknowledged that a recession is not the Bank's central case and certainly not its objective but cautioned that failing to bring inflation under control would ultimately be more damaging to employment and long-term growth.

In terms of the equities they think could recover well in the case of the war scaling back, Canaccord has picked two miners and a financial company.

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

Canaccord said that Evolution offers "clean leverage" to a recovery in the gold price, and to a lesser extent copper, underpinned by its "best in class" operational delivery.

They went on to say:

Gold has pulled back sharply on higher real yields, USD strength, and liquidity-driven selling, with investors using it as a source of funds during recent volatility, creating a dislocation between price and medium-term fundamentals. Importantly, we remain constructive over the medium term, with key structural tailwinds intact, including longer-term USD debasement and strong central bank demand. As liquidity pressures ease and positioning normalises, gold should recover, with EVN providing leveraged exposure. Iran de-escalation represents a key near-term catalyst for a recovery in gold.

Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR)

Canaccord said as the ASX's largest copper-focused miner, Sandfire provides clean leverage to a recovery in copper.

They add:

The industrial metal has pulled back on cyclical growth concerns linked to the Iran conflict, creating an attractive entry point for investors willing to look through near-term uncertainty. While cyclical demand risks remain, structural drivers (EVs, energy storage, renewables) and a tight supply backdrop support a constructive medium-term outlook. Copper appears well placed to rebound over the coming months, assuming no prolonged escalation in Iran (not our base case), with Sandfire providing leveraged exposure

Pinnacle Investment Management Group Ltd (ASX: PNI)

Canaccord said the recent pullback in Pinnacle shares represents an attractive entry point for investors looking to position themselves for a broader equity market recovery.

They say the recent weakness in the shares reflects its leverage to the broader equity market, alongside concerns around private credit.

Canaccord says the company remains a "compelling medium-term proposition, given its diversified stable of affiliates with strong funds under management growth prospects''.

The post Three ASX 200 stock picks to consider now, to drive gains as markets and the gold price recover appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Gold shares have been on a multi-year tear due to a rapidly rising gold price creating exceptional earnings growth for ASX miners.

The gold price increased 65% in 2025, its greatest annual rise in more than four decades, and that came on top of a 27% gain in 2024.

The S&P/ASX All Ords Gold Index (ASX: XGD) rose 125% in 2025 and 16% in 2024, delivering investors some thrilling returns.

And then came the first real test for this magnificent period of growth.

How did 2026 begin?

The start of 2026 was amazing for ASX gold shares.

The gold price went crazy, rising 30% in less than a month on new year optimism and excitement.

The gold price soared from just over US$4,300 per ounce on 31 December to a record US$5,608 per ounce on 29 January.

ASX gold shares ascended strongly, rising 17.7% over these first few weeks of 2026.

Then came the steepest one-day fall for the gold price in more than a decade.

Gold plummeted 21% over just a few days to US$4,400 per ounce by 2 February.

The sell-off was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next US Fed chair.

Warsh is known for his hawkish stance on interest rates, and investors worried he may not cut rates as fast as the market was hoping.

Higher-for-longer interest rates are a headwind for the gold price, given that gold is a non-yielding asset.

The Warsh nomination led to a fall in the gold price, followed by panic selling as investors sought to lock in their incredible gains.

ASX gold shares followed suit. The S&P/ASX All Ords Gold Index (ASX: XGD) fell 12.4% between 29 January and 2 February.

Despite the late-month sell-off, ASX gold shares managed an 11% net gain over the month of January.

ASX gold shares recover, then crash even harder

The gold price rebounded in February, rising to about US$5,300 per ounce by month's end.

ASX gold shares also rose by 4.7%.

Then came the war.

On 28 February (US time), Israel and the US attacked Iran, claiming they did so to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons capabilities.

That saw the gold price tank, and ASX gold shares went with it.

Trading Economics analysts say the gold price has experienced its worst monthly fall in March since October 2008, down about 13%.

ASX gold shares have followed the trend, diving 23.7% this month.

The analysts said:

The precious metal faced sustained pressure this month from an oil-driven inflation shock that pushed investors and policymakers toward a more hawkish stance on interest rates.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said long-term US inflation expectations appeared to remain anchored despite heightened uncertainties tied to the conflict.

He added that the central bank's policy stance is well positioned to allow officials to assess the economic impact of the Iran war.

1Q CY26 performance

The ASX All Ords Gold Index finished the first quarter down 10.1%.

Let's take a look at some specific ASX gold shares and their performance over the March quarter.

The market's largest ASX gold share, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) fell 16.7% over the quarter to close at $20.36 today.

The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price edged 0.5% lower over the quarter to $12.62 today.

Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) shares managed a 0.3% gain over 1Q CY26 to $151.55 today.

The Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP) share price rose 7.4% over the quarter to $11.34 on Tuesday.

Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) shares declined 13.2% to close out the March quarter at $3.67.

Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU) shares weakened 8.7% over the quarter to finish at $5.15 today.

Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) shares decreased 19.3% over the quarter to $5.89 today.

Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX) shares fell 8.7% over the quarter to $5.89 today.

The Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) share price lost 12.8% to finish the March quarter at $6.65.

The post ASX gold shares tumble as bull run faces its first big test in 1Q CY26 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Spot gold is currently trading at US$4,575 an ounce, up about 1.3% on the day, after recovering from what has still been its worst monthly decline since 2008.

The yellow metal remains down 14% over the past month, highlighting how sharp the pullback has been despite today's recovery.

The gains are flowing directly into our local gold sector.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are up 4.56% to $20.40, Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) is climbing 3.21% to $152.99, and Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) is higher by 2.24% to $12.80.

The move follows overnight gains in global gold miners as bullion rebounded on renewed expectations that US interest rate cuts could still arrive later this year.

Gold's rebound gives miners some breathing room

The latest lift in gold appears to be driven by a combination of softer oil prices, easing US dollar strength, and confidence that inflation expectations remain contained.

According to The Australian, the rebound followed renewed market optimism after comments from US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell suggested longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored.

Stable inflation expectations can revive hopes for lower interest rates, which supports gold prices by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Even so, the broader backdrop remains volatile.

Gold is still on track to finish March down about 13%, which would mark its weakest monthly performance in nearly 18 years.

Despite today's rebound, the move still looks more like a recovery from an oversold pullback than the start of a sustained recovery.

Why Northern Star is leading the local gains

Northern Star is leading the gains among the major ASX gold stocks, which reflects its stronger leverage to moves in the Australian dollar gold price.

The company remains one of the ASX's largest pure-play gold producers, with major assets including the Kalgoorlie Super Pit, Jundee, Thunderbox, and Pogo operations.

After a difficult month that has left Northern Star shares down more than 32%, today's rise suggests investors are returning as bullion stabilises.

Newmont and Evolution are also benefiting from the same macro support, though their gains are slightly smaller after both stocks have held up better over the past 12 months.

Bullion remains the main driver for ASX gold stocks

The near-term direction of ASX gold miners is likely to remain closely tied to moves in bullion.

If gold can build on today's rebound and regain momentum above the US$4,600 level, local producers could continue recovering from March's sharp sell-off.

Nonetheless, after such a volatile month, investor attention will likely stay on US rate expectations, oil prices, and geopolitical risks heading into April.

The post Why Northern Star, Newmont, and Evolution shares are rising today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back on Tuesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 set to edge higher

The Australian share market looks set for a subdued session on Tuesday following a poor start to the week in the US. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 1 point higher. In late trade on Wall Street, the Dow Jones is up a fraction, but the S&P 500 is down 0.5% and the Nasdaq is 0.9% lower.

Oil prices jump

It could be a good session for ASX 200 energy shares such as Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) after oil prices jumped overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 4.35% to US$103.96 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 1.25% to US$113.98 a barrel. This leaves oil prices on track to post a record monthly surge.

Shares going ex-dividend

A number of ASX shares are going ex-dividend this morning and could trade lower. This includes Cromwell Property Group (ASX: CMW), GenusPlus Group Ltd (ASX: GNP), Maas Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: MGH), and New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC). The latter will be paying its shareholders a 10 cents per share fully franked dividend next month on 20 April.

Gold price edges higher

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) could have a relatively positive session on Tuesday after the gold price edged higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.1% to US$4,494.7 an ounce. This was driven by increased demand for safe haven assets.

Strike Energy named as a buy

The team at Bell Potter has named Strike Energy Ltd (ASX: STX) shares as a speculative buy with a 15 cents price target. This implies potential upside of over 40% for investors from current levels. It said: "STX announced that the Western Australian Economic Regulation Authority had finalised its determination for the Benchmark Reserve Capacity Price for the 2028/29 capacity year at $488,500/MW per year which could support revenues of around $42m from the South Erregulla project, before electricity sales."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

ASX mining shares have been the worst hit by the war in Iran, with the materials sector losing 15.3% of its value since the conflict began.

Some investors took profits this month after a strong run for ASX 200 mining shares, amid fears that higher diesel prices and potential shortages could hurt earnings and production for 2H FY26.

ASX 200 mining shares have also declined alongside metals prices, with gold down 17%, silver down 22%, lithium carbonate down 8%, and copper down 7% over the month. Iron ore has demonstrated resilience, rising 7% over the period to US$106 per tonne on Friday.

With the US and Iran still negotiating a 15-point plan for peace, it is hoped this war and the ensuing global oil shock will be over soon.

This may have motivated some investors to take up new or enhanced positions in ASX 200 mining shares last week, given the bright long-term outlook for the sector and the opportunity to buy the dip.

Reflecting the miners' fightback last week, the S&P/ASX 300 Metal & Mining Index (ASX: XMM) rose 4.4% while the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gained 1% to finish at 8,516.3 points.

Seven of the 11 market sectors finished in the green last week.

Let's recap.

ASX 200 mining shares fight back

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price increased 6.1% to close at $50.37 on Friday.

BHP shares reached a record $59.39 on 3 March before the war prompted investors to take profits.

Despite last week's rebound, the ASX 200's largest mining stock remains 13.8% lower over 30 days.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares lifted 4.3% to $153.23 last week, while Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) gained 6.5% to $20.19.

The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price soared 9.7% to $56.69.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) shares increased 1.3% to $4.03 per share.

ASX 200 copper share Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) lifted 1.8% to $15.88, while Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC) edged 0.6% lower to $10.14.

ASX 200 lithium shares had a ripsnorter of a week, with PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) rocketing 21.8% to close at $5.15 on Friday.

The Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price soared 20.9% to $1.77, and Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) gained 11.9% to 24 cents.

Nickel and lithium producer IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) lifted 16.5% to $7.93 per share.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) shares closed the week 2.7% higher at $10.08 apiece.

Bauxite and alumina producer Alcoa Corporation CDI (ASX: AAI) lifted 3.5% to $85.95 per share.

What about ASX gold shares?

The market's largest ASX 200 gold share, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) rose 0.3% to close at $18.55 on Friday.

The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price lifted 0.4% to $12.46, and Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) rose 3.1% to $146.85.

Among the mid-caps, Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) shares lifted 2.1% to $3.96, and Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) rose 1.1% to $6.26.

Gold and copper miner, Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP) fell 3.5% to $9.76.

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

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