One year ago today, the gold price stood at US$3,239 per ounce.
At the time, the yellow metal was already catching heightened investor interest, with the price having surged some 39% over the previous 12 months.
As you're likely aware, the bull run for bullion didn't end there.
On 28 January, the gold price was trading north of US$5,417 per ounce, having repeatedly smashed through new record highs.
That was a boon for S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stocks like Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM), and Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN).
But amid resurgent global inflation, spurred in part by the Middle East conflict, markets then began pricing in higher interest rates. And gold, which pays no yield itself and tends to perform better in low or falling rate environments, came under selling pressure.
Investors were also selling their gold holdings to meet margin calls and other financial obligations.
These factors, among others, saw the yellow metal slide to US$4,376 by 26 March.
It also put significant pressure on high-flying ASX gold shares like Newmont, Northern Star and Evolution.
Today gold is trading for US$4,578 per ounce.
Which brings us back to our headline question…
Image source: Getty Images
What is Goldman Sachs forecasting for the gold price?
If Goldman Sachs has it right, then the remainder of 2026 could usher in renewed tailwinds for top ASX gold stocks like Newmont and Northern Star.
Indeed, the broker forecasts the gold price will return to near its record highs to end 2026 trading around US$5,400 per ounce. That's some 18% above current prices.
According to Goldman Sachs' Lina Thomas (quoted by The Australian Financial Review), "Our base case assumes no further private sector liquidation of gold nor any additional private sector diversification in gold beyond the modest boost from Fed cuts."
Goldman Sach is pencilling in 0.50% in US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.
Thomas added:
While our central bank nowcast was weak in February (two tonnes) – likely reflecting a pause in purchases amid extreme price volatility – we maintain our assumption that central bank gold buying averages 60 tonnes per month in 2026.
Around 70% of central banks surveyed at the GS central bank conference expect global gold reserves to rise, with around 25% expecting them to remain flat.
As for the medium-term outlook for the gold price, Thomas concluded:
Over the medium term, risks are skewed to the upside if the Iran episode – together with broader geopolitical developments like Greenland and Venezuela – were to accelerate diversification into gold and to weigh on perceptions of Western fiscal sustainability.
