At the time of writing, the Tabcorp share price is up 7.22% to $1.003. That leaves the stock up around 80% over the past 12 months and within reach of its multi-year high.

That previous peak of $1.095 was set in October 2025. The latest move puts that level back in focus.

Here's what investors are watching.

Recovery trend puts prior highs back in sight

The recent move looks different when set against the past 2 years.

After trending lower through much of 2024, Tabcorp found support and has gradually worked its way higher into 2026. The move hasn't been tied to a single update, but rather a series of smaller developments that have improved confidence in the earnings outlook.

That includes tighter cost control, more stable wagering conditions, and signs that margins are holding up better than expected.

Broker commentary has also helped support sentiment. Following the latest half-year result, analysts pointed to EBITDA coming in ahead of expectations, supported by disciplined costs and steady revenue growth.

Some brokers now see scope for earnings to lift more quickly if wagering turnover continues to improve, given the operating leverage in the business.

Small revenue gains are flowing through to earnings

One of the key drivers behind the move is how quickly earnings respond to changes in turnover.

Broker estimates suggest even modest growth in wagering activity can lead to a stronger lift in EBITDA. And it stands out more when costs are being kept under control.

Digital channels are also contributing. Higher turnover from online activity and younger users has been noted in recent updates.

The balance sheet is in better shape as well. Lower net debt and consistent cash flow provide more flexibility around spending and capital management.

That helps explain the stock's re-rating over the past year.

Foolish Takeaway

The move back toward $1 puts Tabcorp within striking distance of a level that has previously capped the share price.

A clean break above $1.095 would likely draw further attention, especially given the strength of the past 12-month run.

From my perspective, a lot of the easier gains look to have already played out after such a strong rally.

I would rather wait and see how the business tracks through the next set of results before getting involved, particularly with the chart sitting near prior highs.

The post Guess which ASX stock is closing in on its multi-year high appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

After bouncing around quite a bit in red territory this session, the ASX 200 ended up closing 0.39% lower by the time trading wrapped up today. That leaves the index at 8,583.4 points.

This rather gloomy start to the Australian trading week follows a similarly bearish end to the American trading week on Saturday morning (our time).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) gave up an early lead to finish down 0.26%.

Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) was hit even harder, falling 0.93%.

But let's get back to this week and the local markets now for a checkup on how today's tough trading conditions affected the different ASX sectors this session.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Two that have been given accumulate ratings and price targets offering plenty of upside are named below. Here's what you need to know:

Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (ASX: TAH)

Ord Minnett was pleased with this gambling company's half-year results, highlighting that its EBITDA was "comfortably ahead of market and Ord Minnett expectations."

It notes that this was spurred by "strong revenue growth and lower-than-forecast operating costs that drove wider earnings margins than anticipated."

In response, the broker has put an accumulate rating and $1.17 price target on its shares. Based on its current share price, this implies potential upside of approximately 22%.

Commenting on the ASX 200 share, the broker said:

The tight rein on costs positions has provided Tabcorp with plenty of operational leverage, and we now model a 3% increase in EBITDA for every 1% increase in wagering revenue. Post the result, we have cut our EPS estimates by 3.6%, 6.3% and 8.2% for FY26, FY27 and FY28, respectively.

We highlight the scale of these changes are exaggerated by the law of small numbers, with our forecasts still implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in EPS of more than 20% over the forecast horizon. ‍ We raise our target price on Tabcorp to $1.17 from $1.02, while we trim our recommendation to Accumulate from Buy on valuation grounds.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)

Another ASX 200 share that Ord Minnett has been looking at is supermarket giant Woolworths.

Like Tabcorp, it delivered a result that was stronger than expected during the first half. It notes that Woolworths' "earnings and an interim dividend [were] ahead of Ord Minnett and market expectations and lifted guidance for full-year earnings growth from its dominant Australian food business."

Ord Minnett responded by putting an accumulate rating and $39.00 price target on its shares. Based on the current Woolworths share price, this implies potential upside of 10% for investors over the next 12 months.

The broker commented:

Group cost control over the period impressed – growth in operating expenses was just 2% in the half, down from the mid-to-high single-digit rates seen in recent years. Post the result, we have raised our EPS estimates by 6.3%, 5.1% and 6.1% for FY26, FY27 and FY28, respectively, to incorporate actuals and our view that Woolworths will maintain its market share versus arch-rival Coles (COL), which has made the running for several years now. This outlook leads us to raise our target price on Woolworths to $39.00 from $33.00, although valuation means we trim our recommendation to Accumulate from Buy.

The post Ord Minnett names 2 ASX 200 shares to accumulate with 10% and 20% upside appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The ASX 300 reached a new all-time high of 9,134.4 points in earlier trading.

Meanwhile, the brokers have been busy reviewing company reports and re-rating ASX 300 shares as buys, holds, or sells.

Let's take a look at what Morgans thinks of these two ASX 300 companies following their 1H FY26 reports.

Jumbo Interactive Ltd (ASX: JIN)

The Jumbo Interactive share price is $9.91, up 2.2% on Friday.

This ASX 300 gaming share has fallen 14.2% over the past 12 months.

Jumbo Interactive reported revenue of $85.3 million, up 29%, and total transaction value of $524.1 million, up 15.6%, for 1H FY26.

Underlying EBITDA climbed 22.6% to $37.5 million, and underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) increased 22.6% to $22.8 million.

Statutory NPAT was $15.5 million, down 13.4%.

Jumbo Interactive shares will pay a fully-franked interim dividend of 12 cents per share.

Morgans maintained its buy rating on the ASX 300 gaming share, commenting:

Jumbo Interactive (JIN) reported a solid 1H26 result, with most headline metrics pre-released.

While Lottery Retailing was impacted by a softer jackpot cycle, offshore segments delivered encouraging growth and margin expansion.

Managed Services continues to build momentum, with Canada EBITDA guidance upgraded and the UK tracking nicely.

Underlying SaaS trends remain healthy ex-Lotterywest.

Following the update, we believe JIN can delever by FY27F, assuming a normalisation in Australian jackpot activity and continued offshore earnings growth.

The broker kept its 12-month share price target unchanged at $14.90.

Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (ASX: TAH)

The Tabcorp share price is $1.07, up 3.9% on Friday.

This ASX 300 gaming share has soared 47.9% over the past 12 months.

Tabcorp smashed expectations with a 61.5% increase in NPAT (before significant items) to $35.7 million for 1H FY26.

This led to a 21.3% surge in the Tabcorp share price on the day.

Group revenue was $1,344.9 million, up 1% year over year, and EBITDA (before significant items) was $217.4 million, up 14.3%.

Tabcorp shares will pay an unfranked interim dividend of 1.5 cents per share, up 50% on last year.

After reviewing the numbers, Morgans maintained its accumulate rating on this ASX 300 gaming share.

The broker said:

Tabcorp Holdings (TAH) reported a very strong 1H26 result, with resilient turnover, improved margins and disciplined cost control driving double-digit EBITDA growth despite a softer wagering yield environment through the Spring Carnival and Footy Finals period.

New and exclusive products resonated well, particularly with younger cohorts, with digital turnover among 18-24 year olds up +14%.

The broker increased its 12-month price target on Tabcorp shares from $1.07 to $1.20.

The post What is Morgans saying about Jumbo Interactive and Tabcorp shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It was the best-performing stock on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) for the day.

The share price rise comes off the back of the company's half-year result for FY26, which it posted ahead of the ASX open on Wednesday morning.

It also follows news earlier this month that Tabcorp had approached Betmakers Technology Group Ltd (ASX: BET) with a potential takeover offer. To date, no formal offer has been made. Tabcorp has not made any statement about the discussions.

The price increase means Tabcorp shares are now 6.06% higher for the year-to-date and a massive 54.41% higher over the year.

What excited investors in Tabcorp's latest results?

For the six months ending 31st December 2025, the wagering and gaming business posted a modest 1% increase in its group revenue and a 14.3% increase in EBITDA, from the prior corresponding period (pcp). 

Net profit after tax (NPAT) was 61.5% higher which helped the company hike its unfranked interim dividend 50% higher to 1.5 cents per share. The registration date is the 3rd of March, with dividend shareholder payment scheduled for the 24th of March.

Tabcorp's net debt was $631.2 million at the end of the half, with the company saying its strong balance sheet put it in a good position to pursue growth opportunities.

The results easily surpassed analysts' expectations for half-year net profit. The team at Jarden said that the NPAT figure was a huge 34% higher than consensus estimates and that the unfranked dividend increase was also a positive surprise. 

What do analysts expect from the stock for 2026?

We'll likely see brokers confirm or adjust their outlook on Tabcorp shares in coming days. But at the time of writing, TradingView data suggests analysts are very bullish on the outlook for the stock.

Out of 12 analysts, 8 currently have a buy or strong buy rating on Tabcorp shares. The maximum target price is currently $1.20, which implies a 14.29% upside over the next 12 months. Although I wouldn't be surprised if this was raised following the company's result on Wednesday. 

The post Are Tabcorp shares a buy after soaring 24% following its half-year result? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This happy hump day for ASX investors comes after a decent morning up on the American markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) had a fantastic time of it, rising 0.76%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) did open better though, gaining a rosy 1.04%.

But let's get back to ASX shares now and check out how the various ASX sectors benefited from today's unbridled optimism.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The company said in a statement to the ASX on Wednesday that group revenue was a modest 1% higher at $1.345 billion, while EBITDA before significant items was $2178.4 million, up 14.3%.

The statutory net profit before significant items came in at $35.7 million, up 61.5%.

A solid set of numbers

The team at Jarden has had a look at the result and said that the adjusted net profit figure was a hefty 34% higher than consensus estimates, while the unfranked interim dividend of 1.5 cents, up from 1 cent, was also a positive surprise.

Jarden has an overweight rating on the stock and a price target of 95 cents.

Tabcorp Holdings shares traded as high as $1.02 early on Wednesday, up 20%, before settling back to be 15.9% higher at 98.5 cents.

Cost control the key

Tabcorp Managing Director Gillon McLachlan said the company was "executing on our game plan while delivering ongoing cost and capital discipline''.

He added:

There's greater depth in our business. I'm proud we've delivered double digit earnings growth in a half where wagering operators were impacted by a run of low yields during the Footy Finals and Spring Racing Carnival. We have been able to absorb this through strong execution by the team, particularly on the cost side, and through the diversity in our business. "Through TAB and SKY, our digital, retail and media assets are more closely connected, creating a genuine omnichannel experience for our customers and I expect that to evolve further in the second half of the year. TAB Takeover, TAB Time, Mega Pot and Miss By One products are examples of the differentiation we are creating. "There's more to do and we're not where we want to be yet, but we have made significant progress in the first half, and we will remain relentless in executing on our strategy in the second half and beyond.

Tabcorp's net debt was $631.2 million at the end of the half, with the company saying its strong balance sheet put it in a good position to pursue growth opportunities.

No comment was made about Tabcorp's takeover approach to Betmakers, which the smaller company confirmed earlier this month had happened.

The company will pay its dividend on March 24 to shareholders on the register on March 3.

Tabcorp was valued at $1.95 billion at the close of trade on Tuesday.

The post Tabcorp shares surge higher after net profit smashes expectations appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Tabcorp report?

• Group revenue: $1,344.9 million, up 1% on 1H25
• EBITDA (before significant items): $217.4 million, up 14.3%
• NPAT (before significant items): $35.7 million, up 61.5%
• Wagering & Media EBITDA: $181.4 million, up 15.8%
• Interim dividend: 1.5 cents per share (unfranked), up 50%
• Net debt as at 31 Dec 2025: $631.2 million; leverage ratio 1.5x

What else do investors need to know?

Tabcorp's operating expenses decreased by 1.1%, reflecting ongoing cost discipline and efficiencies. The growth in earnings resulted in a 190 basis point improvement in EBITDA margin to 16.2%, delivering positive operating leverage over the period.

The company successfully completed a $300 million issue of five-and-a-half year Australian medium term notes, which improved funding diversity and extended average debt maturity to 5.4 years. Tabcorp says its balance sheet is healthy and positioned for growth.

Tabcorp also highlighted the execution of key strategic initiatives, including new retail and in-play product launches, and ongoing integration of its digital, retail, and media assets.

What did Tabcorp management say?

Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer Gillon McLachlan said:

Our 1H26 results highlight that we are a more consistent company, with greater capability… There's more to do and we're not where we want to be yet, but we have made significant progress in the first half, and we will remain relentless in executing on our strategy in the second half and beyond.

What's next for Tabcorp?

Looking ahead, Tabcorp expects trading conditions in the second half of FY26 to be similar to the first. The focus remains on executing its strategy and further advancing omnichannel customer experiences.

The company will continue emphasising cost control to partly offset inflation. Additional spending of about $5 million is planned for promotion and marketing around the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and capital spending is expected between $120 million and $140 million in FY26. The interim dividend remains unfranked due to limited franking credits.

Tabcorp share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Tabcorp shares have risen 46%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 9% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Tabcorp FY26 half-year result: Earnings grow, dividends rise appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Betmakers asked for its shares to be placed in a trading halt on Wednesday after the Australian Financial Review published an article suggesting that Tabcorp was considering a takeover bid for its smaller counterpart.

Betmakers said in a short statement to the ASX on Thursday:

BetMakers maintains an ongoing commercial relationship with Tabcorp, supplying wagering technology and content distribution services in support of Tabcorp's racing and media operations. BetMakers confirms that it was approached by Tabcorp and that preliminary and informal discussions have taken place regarding a potential change of control transaction. While those discussions were at an early stage and highlighted opportunities for BetMakers' wagering technology products, no formal offer was received and discussions have ceased.

Tabcorp has not made a statement about the discussions.

Betmakers shares fell 15.2% to 19.5 cents after returning to trade on Thursday, while Tabcorp shares were 2.6% lower at 86.7 cents.

Tabcorp is much larger than Betmakers, with a value of $2.03 billion as compared to Betmakers' value of $258 million.

Business travelling well

Betmakers recently reported positive numbers for the December quarter, with revenue of $22.9 million, up 14.1% on the previous corresponding period, and EBITDA of $2.7 million, a $3 million turnaround.

Betmakers Executive Chair Matt Davey said at the time:

The Q2 FY26 results underscore the consistent performance of the business in the last 12 months, delivering a $3.0 million increase in Adjusted EBITDA compared to the prior corresponding period. This structural improvement, which saw our gross margin expand to 66.4%, is a direct result of our disciplined focus on high-margin, technology-led revenue. Having successfully navigated the transition phase, the Company is now operating from a more resilient financial footing. Our focus is on accelerating growth by leveraging our core technology platform to secure new market leading customers globally.

The company said a key highlight during the quarter was the agreement it signed with global betting brand Stake in December.

The company said regarding the deal:

Under this multi-year contract, BetMakers will provide Stake with its market leading technology solutions, facilitating Stake's horse racing offering across various international markets. This partnership underscores the strength and scalability of our proprietary technology, as we support a high-volume, global operator in enhancing its product. The deal not only reinforces BetMakers' position as a preferred racing partner for global operators but also aligns with our strategic focus on high-margin, technology-driven revenue streams that leverage our extensive global racing rights and technology capabilities.

The post Betmakers confirms Tabcorp takeover approach appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ) rose by just 1.77% and produced a total return, including dividends, of 4.09% last year.

That was a decidedly different performance than 2024, when ASX 200 retail shares delivered extraordinary capital growth of 20.71%.

At the start of last year, annual inflation was within the Reserve Bank's target of 2% to 3% and interest rates were cut three times.

The consumer discretionary index reached its 52-week peak in August amid the third rate cut, and the economic picture looked healthy.

However, all bets were off when the annual inflation rate jumped from 2.1% in the June 2025 quarter to 3.2% in the September quarter.

The consumer discretionary index began a sharp ongoing decline immediately after the data was released in late October.

Hopes of further rate cuts were dashed, and more data to follow led to the RBA openly flagging the possibility of a rate hike in 2026.

By 31 December, the index was barely in the green, up just 1.77%.

This meant ASX 200 retail shares underperformed the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) last year.

The ASX 200 lifted 6.8% and provided total gross returns of 10.32%.

Of course, some retail stocks survived the volatility better than others.

Here are the five best ASX retail shares for price growth in 2025.

5 best ASX 200 retail shares of 2025

Eagers Automotive Ltd (ASX: APE)

The Eagers Automotive share price ripped 113% in 2025.

Stock in the Australian and New Zealand car retailer closed at $24.64 on 31 December.

The stock's 52-week high was $35.64.

Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (ASX: TAH)

The Tabcorp share price rocketed 75% to close the year at 99 cents per share.

The ASX 200 retail gaming share's 52-week high was $1.10.

Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK)

The Nick Scali share price soared by 57% in 2025.

The ASX furniture retailer finished the year at $23.57 per share.

Nick Scali's 52-week high was $25.98 — a record for the company.

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN)

The Harvey Norman share price lifted 49% to close out the year at $6.94.

The fellow furniture retailer also reached an all-time high last year at $7.70.

Light & Wonder Inc (ASX: LNW)

The Light & Wonder share price rose 15% to close at $157.57 on 31 December.

The ASX 200 retail gaming share also hit an all-time high of $181.25 last year.

The post Top 5 ASX 200 retail shares of 2025 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Life360 Inc (ASX: 360) shares, meanwhile, were 0.20% lower at the close of the ASX on Thursday. The shares were trading for $49.10 a piece. Over the month, the shares have fallen 7.74%, but are up 119.69% over the year.

For context, the ASX 200 Index closed 0.46% lower on Thursday at 8,885.5 points after inflation data spooked investors. For the month, the index is 0.41% higher, and for the year, the index is 8.62% higher.

It's clear that over the past year, both Tabcorp and Life360 shares have far outperformed the ASX 200 Index. But what can we expect going forward? Is there more upside ahead? Or have they run their course?

What's next for Tabcorp shares?

Tabcorp is an ASX 200 share that dominates Australia's gambling industry. It's a leading provider of wagering and gaming products and services in Australia, and in May 2022, demerged its Lotteries and Keno businesses into the separately listed Lottery Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLC).

There hasn't been any recent price-sensitive news out of the gambling business. But back in August, it delivered a strong half-year result where it announced an 11.8% increase in revenue and an underlying operational expenditure of 2.4%.

Brokers are betting big on the shares too. TradingView data shows that 8 out of 12 brokers have a buy or strong buy rating on the shares, with a maximum target price of $1.15. At the time of writing, that represents a potential 9% upside over the next 12 months.

Earlier this month, top broker UBS upgraded its outlook on the ASX 200 share. It added that after a period of change in leadership and strategy, combined with a soft market, the broker sees an earnings and cash flow upside for the company going forward.

However, analysts at Catapult Wealth rate the shares as a sell and think investors should lock in recent price gains and put their money to work elsewhere.

What's next for Life360 shares?

Life360 is a US-based software development company that has taken the tech industry by storm this year. 

The dual-listed (on the Nasdaq and the ASX) company has frequently been listed as an unstoppable ASX growth share, especially after the launch of a new GPS pet-tracking feature.

The company is set to continue its growth trajectory, too. Following its new pet-related software, the business plans to turn its attention to an elderly-focused solution.

Most analysts expect more upside to come too. According to TradingView data, 9 out of 11 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the shares. The maximum target price is $58.35, which, at the time of writing, represents a potential 18.85% upside for investors over the next 12 months.

Following its latest pet software announcement, E&P Capital confirmed its positive recommendation on the stock, with a $46.57 valuation.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley is more bullish, with an overweight rating and a $58.50 price target on its shares.

The post Tabcorp, Life360 shares up 120% this year: What's next for these ASX 200 shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

A useful resource in keeping an eye on such things is the Australian Shareholders Association, which monitors a swathe of companies and publishes their voting intentions before heading along to meetings.

And it's fair to say they're none too keen on the remuneration settings over at gambling giant Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (ASX: TAH), where they've run the numbers and come up with some figures they reckon are out of whack with shareholder expectations.

Massive pay packet is on the nose

The ASA has singled out the company's long-term incentive settings as particularly egregious, saying the use of options is not in line with what they consider best practice, because "their pricing is opaque and can result in outlandish payouts well in excess of the ordinary shareholder's experience".

In the case of the Tabcorp Chief Executive Gillon McLachlan – previously the head honcho at the AFL – there are 30 million options available to be granted, with a strike price of 47 cents.

As the ASA explains:

So, in 2027, if earnings before interest and tax is up by about 10% and the share price trades at current levels ($1.07 on 10/10/2025), this would result in a bonus cash payment to Mr McLachlan of $18 million. By way of comparison, Tabcorp's statutory net profit this year was around $36 million. This illustrates the leveraged nature of options and the disconnect between executive and shareholder experience.

The ASA further points out that the options do not even need to be exercised, as well as the shares issued, "rather they are simply a basis for calculations to enable cash payments to be made to executives''.

This approach also fails to promote the accumulation of skin-in-the-game shares by executives which conventional schemes achieve.

The ASA will be voting against Mr McLachlan's options package when it comes up for a vote at Tabcorp's annual general meeting, to be held on Monday, 20 October.  

They're also going to vote against the remuneration report on Monday, saying it does not meet their standards "on several measures", including the use of options.

In Mr McLachlan's defence, the company has returned to profit, albeit modestly, under his leadership, and the shares are up more than 100% over the past year.

We'll have to wait and see what other shareholders think when they vote on Monday.

The post A potential $18 million bonus for the boss? Tell 'em they're dreaming, the Australian Shareholders Association says appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

After all, if you have too many underperformers in a portfolio, you could fall short of the market return.

With that in mind, let's look at three ASX shares analysts rate as sells, courtesy of The Bull. Here's what they are bearish on:

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

Morgans thinks that investors should be avoiding Australia's largest bank. While the broker acknowledges its quality and market dominance, it cannot look beyond its stretched valuation. It explains:

CBA is a high quality bank with strong market share, but its valuation is stretched relative to peers. It trades on a significantly higher price-to-earnings ratio compared to global counterparts. Slowing credit growth, margin compression and rising household financial stress poses a risk to earnings. With limited upside and a premium valuation, we believe it's prudent to lock in some gains and rotate into better value financials.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC)

Over at Catapult Wealth, its analysts think that this rare earths producer's shares are overvalued after a very strong gain over the past six months.

In light of this, its analysts rate the ASX share as a sell at present. They said:

Lynas is the largest producer of rare earths outside of China. Concerns about the trade relationship between China and the United States has contributed to a strong increase in the Lynas share price. The shares have risen from $6.85 on April 2 to trade at $17.26 on October 2. The company recently raised $932 million from institutional investors and eligible shareholders. We believe the shares are overvalued. The only way we can see our fair value increasing to its current share price is through a takeover offer for Lynas, or Australia implementing a rare earths price floor. We can't envisage either of our options happening anytime soon.

Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (ASX: TAH)

Another ASX share that Catapult Wealth rates as a sell is gambling company Tabcorp.

It thinks investors should be looking to lock in recent share price gains and put the money to work elsewhere in the market. The broker explains:

Shares in this wagering company have risen from 71 cents on August 26 to trade at $1.015 on October 2. The share price rise follows a stronger full year 2025 result released on August 27. Group revenue of $2.614 billion was up 11.8 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Net profit after tax, before significant items, was $49.5 million, an increase of 76.8 per cent. Sustaining revenue and profit growth is a challenge, particularly given the stiff competition in the online wagering market. We would be inclined to take advantage of share price gains and re-allocate the funds to what we consider better value opportunities. Tabcorp's final 1 cent dividend was unfranked.

The post Why you should sell CBA, Lynas, and Tabcorp shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Tabcorp is an ASX share with a significant presence across the gambling landscape. TAB is Australia's biggest multichannel wagering brand, with a broad range of betting options across both digital channels and in retail throughout Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, Northern Territory, and the ACT.

The business also owns Sky Racing, Sky Sports Radio broadcast, and MAX (a gaming services provider for venues, government, and industry).

UBS recently upgraded the ASX 200 share to a buy. Let's take a look at why.

Why the rating upgrade?

After a period of change in leadership and strategy, as well as soft market conditions, UBS had rated Tabcorp as a "strategic blank canvas". It was continuing the status quo, participating in market growth, containing costs, "but not much else".

Following an encouraging FY25 result and early signs of strategic progress, UBS said it's now ready to price in "some" benefits of strategic improvement and it sees earnings and cash flow upside to what the market is expecting for FY26 and FY27.

UBS also said it think it's fair to measure the ASX 200 share's price-earnings (P/E) ratio excluding the discount unwind of non-current payables, which has been material to Tabcorp's earnings per share (EPS) for several years, according to UBS. This would put the Tabcorp share price on an adjusted P/E ratio of approximately 20. The broker doesn't think this is stretched compared to the market, considering its profit growth outlook.

UBS is forecasting that Tabcorp's EPS could grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% over the three years from FY26.

What are the signs of progress for the ASX 200 share?

The broker highlighted some of the things it's seeing from Tabcorp:

Tabcorp's new strategy focuses more on leveraging its unique assets and less on winning digital market share, with opportunities including:

(1) New retail commercial model and omni-channel activation, (2) tote consolidation, (3) better monetising media assets, (4) cost out, and (5) NSW licence renegotiation.

It is difficult to quantify the earnings/valuation impacts but so far we think it is reasonable to price in: (a) carryover benefits of cost out (~$20m pa in FY26) but future initiatives substantially reinvested, and (b) improved retail venue economics based on reset venue fees/rebates/commissions – we estimate ~$15m in FY26 based on ~3.5k venues at ~$4k per venue (within a wide range), but haven't assumed material benefits from omni-channel incentives (e.g. Tabtime, venue mode, Tap-In-Play).

UBS also noted that market conditions appear to be improving, both in terms of participation and spend per player, which is consistent with Tabcorp's market guidance for modest growth.  

Price target on Tabcorp shares

UBS has a price target of $1.12 on the business, largely thanks to a sum-of-parts of the business. Therefore, the broker is suggesting the Tabcorp share price could rise by 7% over the next year, at the time of writing.

The broker said the increased earnings expectations occurred because of FY25's lower operating expenditure, capital expenditure, net interest, and cash tax, causing EPS expectations to be bumped up by between 41% and 54% for the FY26 to FY28 estimates.

The post Why a top broker is now betting on this leading ASX 200 share appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Three top ASX shares that leading brokers have named as buys this week are listed below. Here's why they are bullish on them:

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

According to a note out of Citi, its analysts have retained their buy rating and $265.00 price target on this biotechnology company's shares. This follows news that US President Donald Trump is planning to put 100% tariffs on imported pharmaceutical products. While there are some uncertainties, Citi believes that CSL is well-placed to navigate these tariffs. It highlights that it collects the plasma for its immunoglobulins from US donors, which qualifies these products as US-origin. In addition, the company has significant operations in the US and the flexibility to revise its existing manufacturing plans to avoid being hit with the tariffs. The CSL share price is trading at $199.98 on Monday afternoon.

Premier Investments Ltd (ASX: PMV)

A note out of Bell Potter reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating and $26.50 price target on this retail conglomerate's shares. This follows the release of the Peter Alexander and Smiggle owner's FY 2025 results last week. The broker was relatively pleased with the results and the marginal recovery in Smiggle's performance early in FY 2026. And while it has trimmed its earnings forecasts slightly, this has no impact on its valuation after time creep offset the changes. Overall, Bell Potter believes that Premier Investments is trading at a discount to peers, especially considering the Premier Retail division with two global roll-out worthy brands offering ~7% EBIT growth in FY 2026e and a P/E ratio of just ~12x excluding equity investments, land bank/cash, while also retaining a strong balance sheet which is supportive of M&A. The Premier Investments share price is fetching $19.23 at the time of writing.

Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (ASX: TAH)

Analysts at UBS have put a buy rating and $1.12 price target on this gambling company's shares. According to the note, the broker is feeling positive about Tabcorp following a review of its decent FY 2025 results and its evolved strategy. The latter is a broader strategy to leverage its unique offerings across Retail, Digital, and Media. This includes the creation of a structurally profitable retail business that will in time increase patronage to pubs and clubs with a true omnichannel offering. And it appears to be working based on UBS' data. As a result, it feels that Tabcorp could outperform consensus expectations in the near term. The Tabcorp share price is trading at $1.01 on Monday.

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Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rebound

The Australian share market looks set to rise on Friday following a solid night in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 45 points or 0.5% higher this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.25%, the S&P 500 rose 0.5%, and the Nasdaq pushed 0.95% higher.

Oil prices fall

It could be a poor finish to the week for ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) after oil prices fell overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 0.7% to US$63.61 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.65% to US$67.51 a barrel. This was driven by US economic concerns, which outweighed rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.

Dividend payday

It is payday for shareholders of a number of ASX 200 shares. This includes stock exchange operator ASX Ltd (ASX: ASX), gambling company Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (ASX: TAH), coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL), and investment management company Pinnacle Investment Management Group Ltd (ASX: PNI). The latter is rewarding its shareholders with a 27 cents per share dividend on Friday.

Gold price drops

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a difficult finish to the week after the gold price pulled back overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 1.1% to US$3,677.6 an ounce. Traders may have been taking profit after the US Federal Reserve's rate cut.

Buy Orica shares

Orica Ltd (ASX: ORI) shares are good value according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has initiated coverage on the commercial explosives company's shares with a buy rating and $23.00 price target. It commented: "We expect ORI to grow underlying EBIT across each segment in the short-to-medium term. ORI is well positioned to deliver rapid de-leveraging over FY26-27 (in the absence of M&A), with scope for capital management to prioritise increasing shareholder returns via an extension to the share buy-back program and dividends."

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