Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (ASX: TAH) shares are pushing higher on Friday, with buying picking up as the stock moves back toward a key level.
At the time of writing, the Tabcorp share price is up 7.22% to $1.003. That leaves the stock up around 80% over the past 12 months and within reach of its multi-year high.
That previous peak of $1.095 was set in October 2025. The latest move puts that level back in focus.
Here's what investors are watching.
Image source: Getty Images
Recovery trend puts prior highs back in sight
The recent move looks different when set against the past 2 years.
After trending lower through much of 2024, Tabcorp found support and has gradually worked its way higher into 2026. The move hasn't been tied to a single update, but rather a series of smaller developments that have improved confidence in the earnings outlook.
That includes tighter cost control, more stable wagering conditions, and signs that margins are holding up better than expected.
Broker commentary has also helped support sentiment. Following the latest half-year result, analysts pointed to EBITDA coming in ahead of expectations, supported by disciplined costs and steady revenue growth.
Some brokers now see scope for earnings to lift more quickly if wagering turnover continues to improve, given the operating leverage in the business.
Small revenue gains are flowing through to earnings
One of the key drivers behind the move is how quickly earnings respond to changes in turnover.
Broker estimates suggest even modest growth in wagering activity can lead to a stronger lift in EBITDA. And it stands out more when costs are being kept under control.
Digital channels are also contributing. Higher turnover from online activity and younger users has been noted in recent updates.
The balance sheet is in better shape as well. Lower net debt and consistent cash flow provide more flexibility around spending and capital management.
That helps explain the stock's re-rating over the past year.
Foolish Takeaway
The move back toward $1 puts Tabcorp within striking distance of a level that has previously capped the share price.
A clean break above $1.095 would likely draw further attention, especially given the strength of the past 12-month run.
From my perspective, a lot of the easier gains look to have already played out after such a strong rally.
I would rather wait and see how the business tracks through the next set of results before getting involved, particularly with the chart sitting near prior highs.
