Mining stocks have become Australia's proxy for the global artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

We don't have a big tech sector heavily involved in the AI build-out like the US market does.

But we have all the metals and minerals needed to build the world's data centres and power battery storage systems.

So, when US AI stocks get sold off, we see a sell-off in tech and copper and critical minerals miners.

That's what happened the week before last when ASX 200 tech stocks fell 5.11%, and materials dropped 7.69%.

Last week, US AI stocks recovered over a three-day run early in the week, and so did our mining and tech companies.

Meanwhile, the consumer discretionary and staples sectors took a hit.

Hotter-than-expected inflation data led the market to price in an 80% chance of a fifth interest rate hike for 2026 on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the benchmark ASX 200 rose 1.28% to finish at 8,908.1 points.

Seven of the 11 market sectors finished in the green last week.

Let's recap.

ASX 200 materials and mining shares led the market

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price jumped 4.56% to close at $57.56 on Friday.

The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price rose 4.08% to $44.09.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares lifted 0.71% to $147.31 last week.

The Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) share price finished steady at $14.27.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) shares increased 5.08% to $4.34.

ASX 200 copper pure-play Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) soared 9.16% to $20.14 per share.

Lithium shares struggled last week amid sluggish commodity prices.

The PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) share price edged 0.76% higher to $2.64.

The Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price fell 3.13% to 62 cents.

How about ASX gold shares?

The Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) share price ascended 4.59% to $25.27.

The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price rose 3.98% to $11.76.

Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) shares lifted 0.7% to $156.12.

The gold price has fallen 7% in 2026 and broke below US$4,000 per ounce on Friday.

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

The post ASX 200 mining shares rebounded while consumer stocks fell last week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

However, a clear trend is in play and the market has weakened markedly from its record high during earnings season.

The good news is that experts see good buying opportunities for shrewd long-term investors.

If you're keen on buying the dip, here are some of their recommendations.

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS)

The PLS share price is $2.69, down 2.2% on Friday.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 lithium share has lost 30% of is valuation.

UBS renewed its buy rating on PLS shares yesterday.

The broker lowered its 12-month price target from $5.30 to $4.90.

This suggests a potential 80% upside ahead.

ASX lithium shares have taken a beating following a 20% fall in the lithium price over the past month.

However, official government forecasts show lithium prices are expected to soar 63% in FY27.

Pinnacle Investment Management Group Ltd (ASX: PNI)

Pinnacle Investment shares are $15.41, up 3.4% today.

This ASX 200 financial share has increased 16% over the past month.

Canaccord Genuity reiterated its buy rating this week.

The broker cut its price target from $24.53 to $22.84.

This implies potential capital gains of 47% ahead.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

The Mineral Resources share price is $44.20, down 1.5% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 mining share has fallen 15%.

UBS reaffirmed its buy rating on Mineral Resources shares with a 12-month target of $72.

This suggests a potential 62% upside ahead.

Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC)

The Whitehaven Coal share price is $7.88, up 0.2% on Friday.

This ASX 200 coal share has edged 2% higher over the past month.

Ord Minnett renewed its buy rating on Whitehaven Coal shares with a $10.30 target.

This implies potential capital growth of 30% over the next year.

Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6)

The Minerals 260 share price is 78 cents, up 0.3% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 gold share has fallen 11%.

Morgans renewed its buy rating on Minerals 260 shares on Tuesday.

The broker has a $1.57 target, which suggests the stock could double over 12 months.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

The Goodman share price is $26.95, down 1.3% on Friday.

This ASX 200 property share has fallen 0.9% over a month.

UBS reaffirmed its buy call on Goodman shares on Thursday.

The broker lifted its price target from $33.66 to $34.46.

This implies 28% upside over the next year.

The post 6 ASX shares experts see as buying opportunities in a weaker market appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the time of writing, the market's biggest lithium company, Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS), is down 6.9% to $2.79.

The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price is $45.05, down 0.6%.

Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares are 67 cents apiece, down 5%.

Elevra Lithium Ltd (ASX: ELV) shares are down 8.3% to $3.42.

The Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) share price is down 3% to 23 cents.

Some ASX lithium shares are holding up well.

Wildcat Resources Ltd (ASX: WC8) shares are up 1.1% to 23 cents.

The IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) share price is down 0.1% to $5.20.

Today's share price declines come amid a near-20% fall in the lithium carbonate price over the past month.

Share price trajectory

As the following price growth chart shows, these seven shares have followed a similar and volatile path over 12 months.

The common denominator with all of them is the influence of commodity prices.

As we've reported, lithium was the best-performing commodity of FY26 for growth.

Lithium spodumene rose 278%, and carbonate rose 160% over that 12-month period.

That followed a significant two-year slump between mid-2023 and 2025.

Skyrocketing prices in FY26 were the result of rebalanced supply and demand.

But of late, that dynamic has shifted, and lithium commodity prices have tumbled since mid-year.

This is reflected in the share price movements below.

Six of the seven stocks have followed that same downward trajectory.

Only PLS shares have gone the other way.

Supply/demand balance shifts

Analysts at Trading Economics say demand is softening right now, just as supply is increasing to become "ample".

One factor raising supply is miners restarting operations after a period of care and maintenance.

That's the case with Mineral Resources, which has restarted Bald Hill, and Core Lithium, which has restarted Finniss.

Then there are demand factors at play, as the analysts explained:

The EU is set to cap imports of Chinese hybrid electric vehicles at 350,000 units annually starting next year.

The European Commission noted that this is expected to halve China's market share across the bloc, limiting orders from battery manufacturers in the region after recent data showed higher-than-expected lithium inventories.

Lithium price set to soar 63%

Despite all this, the Federal Resources Department expects lithium prices to soar and peak in FY27.

According to the September Resources and Energy Quarterly, the lithium spodumene price averaged US$1,532 per tonne in FY26.

For FY27, the department expects a steep increase to US$2,499 per tonne.

After that, lithium prices are expected to fall back to an average of US$1,684 per tonne by FY31.

The post ASX lithium shares take a hit amid 20% fall in lithium price appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

ASX 200 shares are up 0.2% to 8,824.4 points, with the miners leading the market today.

Meanwhile, Bell Potter has published new research notes on three mining and energy companies.

Let's see what the broker has to say.  

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

The Mineral Resources share price is $44.36, up 3.1% today. 

Analyst James Williamson has a buy rating on this ASX 200 mining share.

Williamson said: 

MIN reported quarterly attributable sales of: Onslow iron ore 5.0Mt (BPe 5.5Mt); Pilbara Hub iron ore 2.9Mt (BP est. 2.4Mt); Wodgina SC6e 90kt (BPe 74kt); and Mt Marion SC6e 58kt (BPe 59kt).

Mining Services volumes were a record 103Mt (BPe 89Mt) driven by the Bald Hill and Pilbara Hub ramp-ups and increased stripping at Mt Marion.

Completion of the US$765m MIN-POSCO lithium transaction will accelerate balance sheet deleveraging paired with strong cash flows from iron ore and lithium operations.

MIN's mining services platform delivers a stable earnings stream that is expected to expand with internal and third-party volume growth.

The company is strongly positioned to execute its next phase of growth, having reinstated dividends.

Bell Potter has a 12-month price target of $63 for Mineral Resources shares.

Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC)

The Whitehaven Coal share price is $7.95, up 1% on Tuesday.

Williamson has a hold rating on this ASX 200 coal mining share. 

He said: 

WHC reported a strong quarter with production well ahead of our estimates. Managed ROM production was 11.0Mt (BPe 9.4Mt), managed saleable production 8.5Mt (BPe 7.6Mt) and equity coal sales 6.1Mt (BPe 6.1Mt).

Narrabri was the swing factor on an uninterrupted run, with the next longwall move in March 2027.

In the medium term, WHC is positioned to capitalise when coal markets sustainably improve with a diversified portfolio of assets in Queensland and New South Wales and strong organic growth optionality.

We have a positive long-term met coal outlook, driven by constrained supply and increased demand from steel producers reliant on seaborne met coal (i.e. India).

Bell Potter has a 12-month price target of $8.15 for Whitehaven shares.

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG)

The Fortescue share price is $14.64, up 0.4% today.

Analyst David Coates has downgraded the ASX 200 iron ore share to a sell recommendation.

Coates said: 

FMG has reported September quarter production of 46.8Mt (previously released, down 11% QoQ), including 2.5Mt from Iron Bridge (down 8% QoQ). C1 costs of US$21.98/wmt (up 13% QoQ) were above our $21.16/wmt forecast and above the top of FMG's FY27 guidance range.

Price realisations continued to decline, dropping to 82% (from 84% QoQ and 89% in March 2026). Combined with lower benchmark
pricing, FMG's realised price dropped 10% QoQ to US$79.79/dmt.

The result has confirmed the headwinds we previously flagged: structurally weaker price realisations, higher C1 costs driven by diesel inflation and compressed near-term cash flow from the sales shortfall.

EPS changes in this report are: FY27 -36%, FY28 -25% and FY29 -20%, driven by the sales shortfall we estimate for FY27 and our lowered iron ore price forecasts.

These changes also remove dividend yield support.

Bell Potter has a 12-month price target of $13.15 for Fortescue shares.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Mineral Resources, Whitehaven, Fortescue shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Mineral Resources shares haven't performed particularly well over the past year – they're down almost 5% over the period – but all three brokers are predicting that's about to change.

Before we get to their respective share price targets, let's have a closer look at the company's quarterly results.

September a record month for iron ore

Mineral Resources said it shipped 9.2 million tonnes of iron ore from its Onslow operations, with September a record month.

On the lithium front, the company sold a record 170,000 tonnes during the quarter, and the company's mining services operations produced a record 103 million tonnes of iron ore.

The company's net debt fell by $0.2 billion to $4.1 billion, and its credit rating was upgraded by Fitch to BB.

Brokers say Mineral Resources shares are looking cheap

Broker UBS said in its research note on Mineral Resources that it was a strong start to FY27 on the production front, "but the earnings read through is tempered by weaker pricing and diesel/transitional costs''.

UBS updated its estimates and reduced its forecast earnings per share by 10%-12% for FY27-FY29, but said long-term lithium and iron ore prices provide valuation support.

UBS has a $72 price target for Mineral Resources shares, compared with the share price of $42.50 at the time of writing.

Broker Morgans was much less optimistic about the share price outlook, lowering its price target to $61 from $65.

Morgans said it was, "another encouraging result operationally, with volume beats across every operation bar Mt Marion and costs at or below forecasts at most sites''.

The broker added:

Lower commodity prices in our view have weighed on sentiment and the share price. Bald Hill is marginal at current prices, and higher diesel adds about $1/wmt at Onslow, about $2/wmt at Pilbara Hub and about $20/t spodumene equivalent for lithium from October (Mining Services is protected as clients supply fuel). Despite this, net debt continues to decline, leverage is well below target with no maturities until October 2028, and the POSCO sell-down is still expected this half pending third-party consents.

Morgans said the mining services division, "offers a solid cushion to Mineral Resources' earnings and cash flows through periods of commodity price weakness''.

Macquarie, meanwhile, has a price target of $74 on Mineral Resources shares.

The Macquarie team was impressed by the strong performance at Onslow and the Wodgina lithium operations.

The post 3 brokers think Mineral Resources shares have some serious upside appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Over the ultra-long term, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has returned an average of around 9% to 10% per year. Based on the price targets, experts are suggesting some stocks could deliver returns of around 50% or even more.

Let's look at two of the most compelling ideas right now.

Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO)

Judo is an ASX bank share that lends to small and medium enterprises (SMEs). A significant source of funding comes from the savings accounts and term deposits for individuals, businesses, and self-managed superannuation funds (SMSFs).

According to CMC Invest, there have been seven analyst ratings on the business within the last three months. Five of those ratings were buys, one was a hold, and one was a sell. The average price target of the seven ratings was $1.41, suggesting a possible rise of 54% over the next year.

In the recent company update, Judo reported that lending activity was solid during the quarter, with gross loans and advances (GLA) reaching almost $15.1 billion at 30 September 2026, with "robust originations and improving attrition". GLA was $14.7 billion at the end of FY26, so it rose by around 2.7% quarter over quarter.

The company said that it's still on track to achieve its FY27 guidance of profit before tax of between $210 million to $220 million, representing a year-over-year increase of between 25% to 31%.

Judo is seeing a bit of caution from SMEs due to the various economic factors, as well as an increase of the arrears, which would explain why the Judo share price is now so much cheaper – it's down 48%. Experts suggest the market is now undervaluing the company's potential.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

Another ASX share that's highly rated is Mineral Resources, which is a mining services business and a miner of iron ore and lithium in Australia.

According to CMC Invest, there have been nine ratings on the business in the last three months. Six of those analyst ratings were buys, two were holds, and one was a sell. Of those nine ratings, the average price target was $62.28, implying a possible rise of 47% over the next year.

The company recently announced its FY27 first-quarter update, which included positives for its key divisions.

It reported record mining services production volume of 103mt, up quarter over quarter.

In the iron ore division, quarterly attributable shipments came to 7.9mt. Onslow production (100% basis) increased 21% year over year and the Pilbara hub production grew 31% year over year.

In the lithium division, total quarterly attributable spodumene (lithium) production across its three projects (Wodgina, Mt Marion, and Bald Hill) was 166kt, up 17% quarter over quarter.

The company is doing the right things to improve its underlying performance and delivering solid production.

The post 2 ASX shares tipped to grow up to 54% in the next 12 months appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Mineral Resources report?

• Record Mining Services production volumes of 103Mt, up 10% qoq
• Attributable iron ore shipments of 7.9Mt and lithium sales of 170k dmt SC6, both setting new records
• Net debt reduced by $0.2B to $4.1B; group liquidity rose to $2.5B
• Quarterly capex at $310M, with FY26 dividend of $160M paid
• Fitch upgraded credit rating to BB (stable outlook)
• Safety improved – LTIFR fell 16% qoq to 1.01; TRIFR improved 9% to 6.41

What else do investors need to know?

MinRes maintained its FY27 production and cost guidance across all divisions, despite some cost pressures from rising diesel prices toward the end of the quarter. The company expects FOB costs to stay within guidance after a temporary uptick in fuel costs in September.

Lithium operations saw record quarterly sales, although achieved prices fell as a result of weaker spot markets. The company's net debt position improved and liquidity remains healthy, even after significant capex and dividend payments.

Fitch recognised MinRes' capital discipline and expanding operations by upgrading its credit rating in September. Regulators have concluded their investigation into the company with no enforcement action.

What's next for Mineral Resources?

Looking ahead, MinRes affirmed it is on track to meet FY27 guidance in all segments. Construction is progressing on key projects including Onslow Iron's non-processing facilities and Mt Marion's lithium flotation plant.

Management is also preparing to finalise the POSCO Holdings lithium transaction in the first half of FY27, subject to outstanding conditions. Exploration continues across both iron ore and lithium assets, positioning the company for further growth.

Mineral Resources share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Mineral Resources shares have risen 5%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has declined 2% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Mineral Resources delivers record Q1 iron ore and lithium sales appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Lithium was by far the best-performing commodity relevant to Australian miners in FY26.

That run followed a two-year slump between mid-2023 and mid-2025 when the global lithium market became oversupplied.

Supply/demand finally rebalanced at the start of FY26, driven in large part by the green energy transition.  

Lithium is a key component in rechargeable batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), energy storage systems, e-bikes, and smartphones.

In FY26, lithium spodumene skyrocketed from about US$600 per tonne in June 2025 to US$2,270 per tonne in June this year.

The price has since come off quite substantially, falling to US$1,505 per tonne today.

This reflects more supply coming online as many junior miners come out of care and maintenance to restart operations.

However, the 12-month outlook for the lithium spodumene price is very positive, according to the Federal Department of Resources.

Lithium price to soar 63% this year

The department has just released its five-year outlook for a large range of commodities.

The department says the lithium spodumene price averaged US$1,532 per tonne in FY26.

For FY27, the department predicts a sharp increase of 63% to US$2,499 per tonne.

As with many other commodities, the department projects a gradual decline back to an average US$1,684 per tonne in FY31.

According to the department's outlook report:

Australian mine output is forecast to grow by around 8.8% a year to 2031, supported by expansions at existing operations and the ramp-up of new projects.

Australia's lithium export earnings are forecast to increase from nearly $10 billion in 2025–26 to over $17 billion in 2026–27 driven by higher prices and increased export volumes.

These are expected to moderate to around $15 billion by 2030–31 ($14 billion in real terms) as prices ease from current levels.

This is important information for ASX lithium shares investors because commodity prices directly impact earnings and market valuations.

Global lithium consumption is projected to grow by more than 11% a year to FY31, primarily driven by the adoption of EVs and battery energy storage systems, while supply is expected to expand by 7.3% per year.

According to the report:

Global EV sales grew by 21% in 2025, led by China and the EU. By 2031, annual sales are projected to reach around 17 million vehicles in China and 6.6 million in the EU. Growth in the United States is expected to be more moderate following the expiry of EV tax credits.

EV penetration in China is projected to rise from 53% in 2025 to 81% in 2031, while the EU rate is forecast to reach 56%, supported by vehicle emissions standards. US penetration is projected to increase more modestly to 12%.

The report flagged a risk that sodium-ion and solid-state batteries may eventually compete with lithium-ion batteries in the market.

China has imposed a 2% consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries from 1 September 2026, rising to 4% from 1 September.

Sodium-ion and solid-state batteries will remain exempt until the end of 2028, potentially supporting their development and adoption.

Which ASX lithium shares should you buy?

Morgans reiterated its buy recommendation on PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares this week.

The broker has a 12-month share price target of $3.70, implying almost 30% upside from here.

UBS upgraded Elevra Lithium Ltd (ASX: ELV) shares to a buy rating with a $9.10 target earlier this month.

This implies more than 140% potential upside over the next 12 months.

Bell Potter reiterated its buy recommendation on Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares with a $1.60 target last week.

This indicates potential gains of 130% ahead.

Morgans upgraded Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) to a buy rating with a $65 target last week.

This implies 45% potential upside from here.

Ord Minnett upgraded Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) shares to a buy call with a 34-cent target last week.

This suggests a potential 60% upside ahead.

The post Lithium price set to soar 63% in FY27. Here's why and the ASX shares to buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The materials sector, which is dominated by ASX mining shares, was the best-performing sector of 2025.

This year, it's running fourth behind energy (up 31%), consumer staples (17%), and utilities (10%).

Commodity prices have been resilient in 2026, which has supported mining stock valuations.

The green energy transition and other factors are providing strong drivers for new long-term growth in Australia's mining sector.

However, over the next five years, the government forecasts many commodity prices to peak in FY27 and decline through to FY31.

With that said, let's look at some ASX 200 mining shares with buy recommendations from Bell Potter.

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS)

The PLS Group share price is $3.02, up 1.7% today.

This ASX 200 lithium mining share has tumbled 30% in the calendar year to date (YTD).

Bell Potter upgraded PLS Group shares to a buy rating on Wednesday.

The broker cut its 12-month price target from $5.20 to $4.40.

This suggests a potential 45% upside ahead.

Analyst James Williamson said:

We upgrade to a Buy recommendation on recent share price weakness.

At current lithium market prices, PLS will generate substantial earnings and cash flow with the restart of the 200ktpa Ngungaju processing plant.

P2000 and Colina development studies are being progressed, providing organic growth optionality in markets with strong underlying EV and BESS-led long term demand fundamentals.

Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6)

The Minerals 260 share price is 81 cents, up 6.6% today.

This ASX 200 gold mining share has ripped 88% YTD despite a 3% fall in the gold commodity price.

Bell Potter maintained a speculative buy rating on Minerals 260 shares this week.

The broker kept its 12-month target of $1.45 in place.

This suggests a potential 79% upside ahead.

Analyst David Coates said:

MI6 offers gold exposure via the 6.2Moz BGP, valuation uplift through exploration success, project advancement and de-risking as the BGP progresses towards production.

MI6 is now largely funded to develop the BGP and on track to complete a DFS and make a FID in early CY27, plus secure long-lead items and commence early site works.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

The Mineral Resources share price is $44.67, up 0.7% today.

This ASX 200 lithium and iron ore mining share has fallen 19% YTD.

Bell Potter reiterated its buy call on Mineral Resources shares on Wednesday.

The broker slashed its 12-month price target from $75 to $63.

This suggests a potential 41% upside ahead.

Analyst James Williamson said:

Completion of the US$765m MIN-POSCO lithium transaction is expected in the current half, and will accelerate balance sheet deleveraging paired with strong cash flows from iron ore and lithium operations.

MIN's mining services platform delivers a stable earnings stream that is expected to expand with internal and third-party volume
growth. The company is strongly positioned to execute its next phase of growth, having reinstated dividends.

The post 3 ASX 200 mining shares to buy with 41% to 79% upside ahead: broker appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Meanwhile, brokers have lifted their ratings on several ASX 200 shares this week. 

Let's review. 

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS)

The PLS Group share price is $2.97, down 6.3% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 lithium share has tumbled 30%.

Bell Potter upgraded PLS Group shares to a buy rating on Wednesday.

The broker cut its 12-month price target from $5.20 to $4.40.

This still implies a potential 48% upside ahead.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

The Minerals Resources share price is $44.36, down 4.9% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 mining share has fallen 18%.

Morgans upgraded Mineral Resources shares to a buy rating on Wednesday.

The broker cut its 12-month price target from $71 to $65.

This suggests a potential 46% upside ahead.

Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN)

The Paladin Energy share price is $6.89, down 5% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 uranium share has descended 28%.

Morgans upgraded its rating from accumulate to buy this week.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $13.10.

This implies a potential 90% upside ahead.

Morgans said:

PDN's 1Q27 result reflected the anticipated slow start to FY27, with Langer Heinrich Mine (LHM) uranium production of 1.0Mlbs below consensus expectations of 1.16Mlbs.

Uranium sales of 1.16Mlbs were in line with consensus expectations of 1.13Mlbs.

The result was impacted by the flagged and planned July plant shutdown and weaker recovery rates due to ore characteristics.

Mining momentum and realised pricing – mining performance improved qoq following strong performance in 4Q26 and realised pricing increased 12% to US$79.4/lb, a record at LHM.

Following recent share price weakness, we upgrade our rating to BUY (previously ACCUMULATE) …

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC)

The Lynas Rare Earths share price is $10.88, down 6% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 rare earths share has lost one-fifth of its market capitalisation.

Morgan Stanley upgraded Lynas Rare Earths shares to a buy rating on Monday.

The broker lowered its price target from $15.45 to $14.65.

This indicates a potential gain of 34% over the next year. 

Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD)

The Ampol share price is $43.24, down 0.6% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 energy share has risen 2%.

UBS upgraded Ampol shares to a buy rating on Tuesday.

The broker upped its 12-month price target from $41.50 to $47.75.

This suggests a potential 10% upside ahead.

The post 5 ASX 200 stocks analysts have upgraded this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

But it isn't all doom and gloom.

Even after factoring in weaker than expected prices, Bell Potter believes the two ASX lithium shares in this article could be seriously undervalued and positioned to deliver big returns.

Here's what the broker is recommending:

Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR)

Speaking about its lithium price expectations, Bell Potter said:

We have marked-to-market our lithium price estimates for the recent quarter and downgraded our near-term outlook, in line with recent price weakness. Spodumene Concentrate 6% Li2O CFR China (Fastmarkets) averaged US$2,107/t in the September 2026 quarter (BP est. US$2,500/t); spot prices are US$1,562/t. We now factor in SC6 prices of US$1,777/t in FY27 (-21% on prior estimate of US$2,250/t) and US$1,750/t in FY28 (-7% on prior estimate of US$1,875/t).

While this has led to significant reductions in the broker's earnings estimates, Liontown remains its preferred ASX lithium share to buy now. 

As a result, it has reaffirmed its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $1.60 (from $1.70). Based on its current share price of 71.5 cents, this implies potential upside of approximately 120% over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, the broker said:

LTR is our preferred lithium exposure. We expect a value re-rate as the Kathleen Valley ramp-up and expansion are progressively derisked over the forecast period. On recent share price weakness, LTR is trading on an EV last seen in mid-2025 when SC6 prices were around US$650/t and the company's balance sheet was materially weaker. Spot prices are now over 2.5x this level and LTR is in a net cash position.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

Another ASX lithium share that could offer major upside is Mineral Resources.

Once again, Bell Potter has made meaningful reductions in its earnings estimates to reflect weaker lithium prices, which has had a knock-on effect to its valuation.

Nevertheless, the broker feels that Mineral Resources shares are very good value at current levels.

According to the note, it has retained its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $63.00 (from $75.00). Based on its current share price of $45.81, this implies potential upside of approximately 38% for investors over the next 12 months. It also expects a modest 1% dividend yield in FY 2027.

Commenting on Mineral Resources, Bell Potter said:

Completion of the US$765m MIN-POSCO lithium transaction is expected in the current half, and will accelerate balance sheet deleveraging paired with strong cash flows from iron ore and lithium operations. MIN's mining services platform delivers a stable earnings stream that is expected to expand with internal and third-party volume growth. The company is strongly positioned to execute its next phase of growth, having reinstated dividends.

The post 2 ASX lithium shares to buy with 38% to 120% upside appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The report takes into account the results from the most recent earnings season, as well as the macroeconomic environment going forward.

The broker says they are the "most compelling" opportunities drawn from a wider list of 30 stocks.

Sectors they are avoiding include the banks and consumer stocks, which could be buffeted by higher interest rates.

But they see ongoing tailwinds for the industrial and mining sectors.

Let's see who they like specifically.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

UBS likes BHP for its 55% exposure to copper, which is its preferred commodity.

They said they are "constructive on the fundamental outlook for copper (and) expecting a protracted period of elevated prices''.

They have a price target of $62 on BHP shares.

Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC)

The broker says this company is trading on a lower price-to-earnings ratio than the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) despite offering higher earnings per share growth in FY27.

They added:

Earnings per share growth will be much more resilient this hiking cycle due to a higher proportion of recurring earnings, resilient institutional capital flows and tailwinds from FY26.

UBS has a price target of $24 on Charter Hall shares.

Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG)

IAG is UBS' top pick among the insurance companies, reflecting its robust home and motor policy pricing, leverage to higher bond yields, and potential upside from its proposed RAC acquisition.

If that deal does not go ahead, UBS said a buyback was possible.

UBS has a price target of $9.10 on IAG shares.

Light & Wonder Inc (ASX: LNW)

UBS said this gambling company was trading at a low multiple despite guiding to mid to high-single-digit earnings growth.

The broker said the industry had strong dynamics and iGaming was growing well.

The broker has a price target of $210 on Light & Wonder shares.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

UBS said MinRes is entering a "cash harvest" phase, which should support deleveraging and increased shareholder returns.

They added:

Governance concerns have eased, with a credible succession plan now in place. Combined with a materially improved outlook, the stock's valuation appears increasingly attractive.

UBS has a price target of $72 on MinRes shares.

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1)

The broker said the company's Latitude division was reshaping its earnings profile through long-duration AI compute contracts and accelerating annual recurring revenue growth.

They said guidance had been upgraded, with further upside risk, liquidity remains strong, and any incremental revenue carried high earnings conversion.

UBS has a price target of $29 on Megaport shares.

Orica Ltd (ASX: ORI)

UBS said it expected resilient global mine production activity and the integration of recent acquisitions to drive 7% compound growth over three years.

They have a price target of $27 on Orica shares.

Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG)

The broker said Sigma had ongoing sales strength across existing and new stores at Chemist Warehouse in Australia and overseas.

The company was also "leveraging structural tailwinds in back of store and health & beauty, plus gross margin expansion and operating leverage from cost management in time''.

UBS has a price target of $3.15 on Sigma shares.

Ventia Ltd (ASX: VNT)

The infrastructure services company, UBS said, had a growth outlook of 8% compound over three years, "supported by increased infrastructure investment, government outsourcing, and defence spending''.

UBS has a price target of $7 on Ventia shares.

The post UBS' top nine ASX large-cap stock picks appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This sunny day on the Australian markets follows a similarly rosy start to the American trading week, up on Wall Street.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) was in fine form, gaining 0.18%

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) was far more enthusiastic, though, jumping 1.05%.

But let's get back to the local markets now and take stock of how the different ASX sectors were treated by investors this Tuesday.

Winners and losers

There were far more green sectors than red ones this session.

Leading the losers, though, were tech stocks. The S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) was left out in the cold today, slumping 2.9%.

Gold shares were also neglected, with the All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) tumbling 0.8%.

Consumer staples stocks were no safe haven either. The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index (ASX: XSJ) saw its value cut by an unlucky 0.13% today.

It was much better everywhere else, though. At the front of the pack this Tuesday were real estate investment trusts (REITs), illustrated by the S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index (ASX: XPJ)'s 1.15% surge higher.

Mining shares also ran hot. The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) ended up leaping 0.91% higher.

Utilities stocks were just behind that, with the S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index (ASX: XUJ) soaring 0.9%.

Financial shares had a day to remember, too. The S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index (ASX: XFJ) enjoyed a 0.73% bounce this session.

Healthcare stocks weren't left out, as you can see from the S&P/ASX 200 Healthcare Index (ASX: XHJ)'s 0.63% lift.

Consumer discretionary shares were a little less excited. The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ) still managed a 0.33% advance, though.

Energy stocks got some love, with the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) adding 0.15% to its total.

As did communications shares. The S&P/ASX 200 Communication Services Index (ASX: XTJ) ticked up 0.14% today.

Finally, industrial stocks got over the line, evident by the S&P/ASX 200 Industrials Index (ASX: XNJ)'s 0.05% improvement.

Top 10 ASX 200 shares countdown

Today's best performer on the index was IGA supplier Metcash Ltd (ASX: MTS). Metcash shares roared 4.88% higher today to close at $3.01 each.

This move came despite no obvious catalysts from the company this week.

Here's how the other winners pulled up at the kerb:

Our top 10 shares countdown is a recurring end-of-day summary that shows which companies made big moves on the day. Check in at Fool.com.au after the weekday market closes to see which stocks make the countdown.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Looking to invest in a major ASX miner, but torn between PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) and Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)? It's a fair dilemma. Both companies sit at the heart of Australia's mining boom and have big ambitions in lithium—a commodity crucial to clean energy and electrification. Yet, when it comes down to fundamentals, recent performance, and dividends, these two miners take noticeably different routes to delivering shareholder returns. Here's how I see the strengths and weaknesses stack up between PLS Group and Mineral Resources shares.

The case for PLS Group

PLS (formerly Pilbara Minerals) has carved out a position as one of Australia's most prominent pure-play lithium producers. Its flagship Pilgangoora mine in Western Australia is among the world's largest hard-rock lithium-tantalum projects, while a 2025 move into Brazil's Colina lithium reserve highlights its appetite for global expansion. The company's laser-focus on lithium could appeal to investors banking on strong long-term demand for battery metals.

Looking at the fundamentals, PLS Group currently trades on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.98 and sports a fully franked dividend yield of 1.29%. Earnings per share stand at $0.161, with a market cap of $12.45 billion. The company has paid out fully franked dividends, with the most recent being $0.14 and $0.11 per share in 2023, according to its published dividend history. The shares have struggled so far this year, with a year-to-date (YTD) return of -7.1%. For those with conviction in a lithium-led recovery, PLS stands out as a focused, growth-oriented operator.

The case for Mineral Resources

Mineral Resources offers a different proposition. It's not just a miner—it's a mining services provider and a significant player in both lithium and iron ore. Its operations range from mining its own resources in the Pilbara and Goldfields to offering pit-to-port logistics and infrastructure services to third parties. This business model gives it more earnings diversity than a pure-play lithium miner like PLS. Mineral Resources has also laid out bold plans to become a leading lithium hydroxide and battery producer, leveraging vertical integration for cost advantage.

On the numbers, Mineral Resources currently trades on a significantly lower P/E ratio of 9.81, which reflects a much higher earnings per share figure at $5.338. Its dividend yield is 1.58% (fully franked), and its market cap comes in at $10.38 billion. The company has a lengthy track record of paying fully franked dividends, with the most recent totalling $0.90 per share across two payments in 2024. Despite a negative YTD return of -2.1%, this is a much gentler slide than PLS Group over the same period.

Valuation comparison

There are some clear contrasts in the key figures:

Recent share price performance

Comparing recent share price action up to 30 September:

• PLS Group Ltd closed at $3.86, down 0.26% on the day, and has lost 7.1% year-to-date.
• Mineral Resources Ltd closed at $52.29, down 0.19% on the day, and is down 2.1% for the year to date.

So far in 2026, both have underperformed, but Mineral Resources shares have held up better than PLS Group on a year-to-date basis.

Which is the better buy?

If I had to pick between the two today, I'd lean toward Mineral Resources. Here's why: Its P/E ratio is much lower than PLS Group's, suggesting the market is either underpricing its earnings or sees more stability and less risk in its diversified business. Mineral Resources also offers a slightly higher, fully franked dividend yield and a proven record of returning cash to shareholders. The earnings per share difference is striking, and its year-to-date performance has held up better in a tough environment. While PLS Group has explosive potential if lithium prices soar (and a strong focus for those after pure lithium exposure), I think Mineral Resources' mix of mining and services gives it the resilience and income I personally prefer in volatile cycles.

The post PLS Group vs Mineral Resources: ASX mining shares compared appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The ASX 200 fell to a four-month low yesterday amid falling oil prices and rising bond yields.

While expectations of another interest rate rise next month have cooled, many experts say a hike in 1Q FY27 is likely.

Amid the market weakness, experts are offering their advice on buy-the-dip opportunities.

They reckon the following stocks have great upside potential over the next 12 months.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

The Goodman Group share price is $25.86, down 2.8% today.

Over the past six months, this ASX 200 property share has declined 1%.

Citi reiterated its buy rating on Goodman shares with a price target of $40.

This implies potential capital gains of 54% ahead.

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC)

The WiseTech share price is $33.08, up 5.6% today.

Over the past six months, this ASX 200 tech share has fallen 13%.

Citi renewed its buy rating on WiseTech shares with a $58.75 price target.

This implies a potential 77% upside ahead.

Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6)

The Minerals 260 share price is 87 cents, up 1.8% today.

Over the past six months, this ASX 200 gold share has risen 28%.

Bell Potter reaffirmed its speculative buy rating on Minerals 260 shares with a 12-month target of $1.40.

This suggests a potential 67% upside ahead.

Analyst David Coates said:

MI6 has released an updated Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE), Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) and maiden Ore Reserve Estimate (ORE) for its 100% owned, 6.2Moz Bullabulling Gold Project (BGP), 25km west of Coolgardie in WA.

These mark the delivery of key catalysts in line with MI6 guidance and major milestones in the advancement of the BGP towards development.

MI6 offers gold exposure via the 6.2Moz Bullabulling MRE, valuation uplift through discovery success, project advancement and de-risking as the BGP progresses towards production.

MI6 holds ~$250m cash, sufficient to fund to Final Investment Decision (FID) in early CY27, long-lead items and early site works.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

The Mineral Resources share price is $50.89, up 2% today.

This ASX 200 mining share has fallen 3% over the past six months.

UBS renewed its buy rating on the stock with a $74 target.

This implies potential capital growth of 45% over the next year.

REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA)

The REA share price is $154.62, up 0.3% today.

Over the past six months, this ASX 200 communications share has traded steady.

Jefferies reiterated its buy call on REA shares with a $194 price target.

This suggests a potential 25% upside ahead.

The post 5 ASX 200 shares brokers tip to rocket 25% to 77% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Over 12 months, ASX mining shares have soared 29% while the S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) has fallen 1%.

The mining index reached a record high of 9,326.9 points on 26 August. 

Higher demand for metals and minerals due to the green energy transition and strong commodity prices has contributed to the 29% rise.

This week, brokers have indicated continued confidence in several ASX mining shares by renewing their buy recommendations.

The brokers have also given each stock a 12-month price target, indicating where they think the valuation will go.

Let's take a look.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

The BHP share price is $61.21, up 1% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 iron ore share has fallen 8%.

Morgan Stanley renewed its buy rating on BHP shares on Monday.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $68.

This suggests a potential 11% upside ahead.

Galan Lithium Ltd (ASX: GLN)

The Galan Lithium share price is 31 cents, up 3.3% today.

This ASX lithium share has fallen 23% over the past month.

Canaccord Genuity reiterated its buy rating on Galan Lithium shares on Monday.

The broker has a 12-month price target of 80 cents.

This implies potential capital gains of 158% ahead.

Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6)

The Minerals 260 share price is 88 cents, down 2% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 gold share has risen 1%.

Bell Potter reaffirmed its buy rating on Minerals 260 shares with a 12-month target of $1.45.

This suggests a potential 64% upside ahead.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

The Mineral Resources share price is $52.63, up 0.5% today.

This ASX 200 mining share has fallen 19% over the past month.

UBS renewed its buy rating on the stock with a $74 target.

This implies potential capital growth of 40% over the next year.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32)

The South32 share price is $5.04, up 0.3% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 mining share has fallen 2%.

Citi renewed its buy rating on South32 shares yesterday.

The broker has a $6 target, implying a potential 19% upside ahead.

Champion Iron Ltd (ASX: CIA)

The Champion Iron share price is $3.11, up 1.1% today.

This ASX iron ore share has fallen 12% over the past month.

UBS reiterated its buy rating on Champion Iron shares with a price target of $4.15.

This implies a potential 34% upside ahead.

AIC Mines Ltd (ASX: A1M)

The AIC Mines share price is 88 cents, down 2.8% today.

This ASX copper share has risen 9% over the past month.

Morgans reiterated its buy rating on AIC Mines shares with a price target of $1.20.

This implies potential capital gains of 36% ahead.

The post 7 ASX mining shares with 11% to 158% upside ahead: experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Investors looking at Australia's mining sector might find themselves weighing Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) against Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN). Both are heavyweights with exposure to crucial elements for the green energy transition, but their businesses, financial metrics, and risk/reward profiles differ sharply. Here's how these two ASX mining stocks stack up if you're hunting for upside potential.

The case for Lynas Rare Earths

Lynas Rare Earths is a globally significant player in a highly specialised field—rare earth elements. As one of the few producers outside China, Lynas mines and processes rare earths primarily at its Mt Weld site in Western Australia and its Malaysian facilities. These critical materials are fundamental for tech like electric vehicles, wind turbines, and other green energy gear. As noted in its latest public snapshot, Lynas is also pushing forward with rare earths supply chain projects in the US, highlighting its growth ambitions and strategic value.

Looking at Lynas's fundamentals, a few points stand out:

• Market cap: $14.48 billion, making it the larger of these two miners
• P/E ratio: 66.50, signalling high expectations from the market
• Year to date return: 17.93%, a solid gain for 2026 so far

However, Lynas currently pays no dividend, so it's a pure growth play at present.

The case for Mineral Resources

Mineral Resources offers something different—a diversified mining and mining services business with major exposure to iron ore and lithium. The company not only operates its own mines but also delivers end-to-end mining services across WA and beyond. Its strategy is to build scale and efficiencies, aiming to become a top-five lithium hydroxide producer while supplying iron ore to global markets. As per its company overview, Mineral Resources also has a vertically integrated battery manufacturing ambition, leveraging both resource extraction and downstream processing.

Mineral Resources shows strong credentials on several financial fronts:

• P/E ratio: 10.25, much lower than Lynas's
• Earnings per share (EPS): 5.338
• Dividend yield: 1.52%, fully franked (100%), so investors get tax-effective income
• Market cap: $10.76 billion
• Year to date return: 2.19%

The company's dividend history is impressive, with a record of consistent, fully franked payouts spanning more than a decade—something income-focused investors might really value.

Valuation comparison

The numbers tell a story of two very differently positioned miners:

Lynas's earnings multiple is more than six times that of Mineral Resources, which suggests the market is pricing in much higher growth or scarcity value for rare earths. Note: Lynas Rare Earths' reported P/E ratio may be based on a different earnings measure (e.g. underlying or forward earnings) than the EPS figure shown, which is why they may appear inconsistent.

Mineral Resources, by contrast, is trading on a low double-digit earnings multiple and generating sizeable franked dividends for shareholders. This could indicate the stock is valued more on its current earnings power and less on blue-sky potential.

Recent share price performance

Comparing their recent share price action up to 24 September 2026:

• Lynas Rare Earths closed at $14.39 on 24 September 2026, with a year-to-date return of 17.9%. Over the past month, the shares have seen some volatility, swinging between $13.83 and $16.40, but have generally traded higher from their mid-year levels.
• Mineral Resources finished at $54.18 on 24 September 2026, with a year-to-date return of 2.2%. The shares have been more subdued lately, moving between $52.83 and $65.46 during the month, but trending flat to slightly down over this timespan.

Which is the better buy?

If I'm weighing Lynas Rare Earths against Mineral Resources with upside in mind, my pick would be Lynas Rare Earths. The market is clearly pricing in strong long-term growth as rare earths play a bigger part in electric vehicle and renewable supply chains. While its high P/E means it's priced for a lot of future success—and it doesn't pay a dividend—the company is uniquely placed outside of China and has achieved momentum this year.

Mineral Resources is no slouch, with a solid (and fully franked) dividend and much lower valuation. It's arguably the steadier play, especially for those seeking income or concerned about volatile commodity cycles. But for investors squarely focused on capital growth and long-term thematic tailwinds, I'd lean toward Lynas despite the market optimism already baked in.

The post Lynas Rare Earths vs Mineral Resources: Which ASX mining stock shines? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

With diversification in mind, I plan to invest $50,000 blocks of my super balance into various baskets of ASX stocks covering a broad range of different sectors.

When it comes to the mining sector, I aim to put $50,000 of my superannuation into S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining stocks New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC), Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN), and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares.

All three companies are well-established, well-managed, and have very sizeable moats to keep the competition at bay.

And atop the potential for long-term share price gains, all three pay fully-franked dividends, delivering some handy passive income throughout the year.

I've also narrowed my focus to these three because they each offer unique diversity within the mining sector.

BHP shares, for example, derive the majority of their revenue from copper and iron ore.

New Hope shares are solely focused on thermal and coking coal production.

And Mineral Resources shares are exposed to the company's mining services, iron ore, lithium, and energy segments. On the energy front, Mineral Resources has a current gas exploration program running across prospective acreage in the onshore Perth and Carnarvon basins.

Investing $50,000 of superannuation into top ASX 200 mining stocks

While ASX mining stocks are inherently cyclical, if you're okay holding onto them through the low parts of any cycle, I believe they're an excellent place to invest $50,000 of superannuation savings.

At its FY 2026 results, New Hope reported underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $514 million. Net profit after tax (NPAT) came in at $161 million.

And on the passive income front, New Hope declared a final fully-franked dividend of 30 cents per share. New Hope shares trade on a fully-franked trailing dividend yield of 7.1%. The New Hope share price is up 40.3% in a year.

Turning to Mineral Resources, the ASX 200 diversified miner reported record underlying EBITDA of $2.6 billion for FY 2026. On the bottom line, the company achieved an underlying NPAT of $822 million. This saw management restore the dividend, which had been suspended since 2024. Mineral Resources declared a final fully-franked dividend of 83 cents per share.

The Mineral Resources share price is up 25.4% in 12 months.

Which brings us to the third ASX 200 mining stock I'd buy with part of my $50,000 of superannuation, BHP.

For FY 2026, BHP reported underlying EBITDA of US$32.9 billion, with underlying profit of US$13.2 billion. BHP paid a fully-franked final dividend of $1.38 per share. The BHP share price is up 45.5% in 12 months.

The post Why I'd invest $50,000 of superannuation in New Hope, Mineral Resources and BHP shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The stock is down another 1.04% to $53.54 in afternoon trade.

That brings its decline to around 12.6% over the past 5 sessions and more than 20% over a month.

Interestingly, there hasn't been a major company announcement this week to explain the selling.

So, what exactly is going on?

Lithium prices are sliding again

The first place I'd look is the lithium market, which has had a rough few weeks.

According to Trading Economics, lithium carbonate is currently trading around 134,300 yuan per tonne.

That leaves the commodity down more than 12% over the past month after a strong run through the first half of 2026.

And Mineral Resources isn't the only lithium stock being sold off.

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares are down 17.58% over the past month, while Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) has fallen 21.35%.

Mineral Resources has plenty riding on lithium as well.

The segment generated $771 million of underlying EBITDA in FY26, helped by record sales volumes and higher prices.

What's been hitting lithium?

A couple of developments out of China have knocked lithium prices around this month.

Earlier in September, Shanghai Metals Market changed the way it measures lithium carbonate inventories.

The survey now includes more traders, battery manufacturers, and other holders than it did previously.

That quickly pushed reported inventories higher.

However, much of the increase came from the expanded survey itself.

Reuters also reported last week that China had temporarily paused approvals for new battery energy storage manufacturing projects.

The sector is now being reviewed before new projects are allowed to move ahead.

What about iron ore?

Iron ore doesn't look like the reason Mineral Resources shares have been falling this week.

At the time of writing, iron ore is trading around US$97.42 per tonne.

That's actually up around 2.3% over the past month, although the commodity is still 7.4% lower than a year ago.

And iron ore is now a huge part of the Mineral Resources business.

The division generated $1 billion of underlying EBITDA in FY26, making it the company's biggest earnings contributor.

A large chunk of that came from Onslow Iron, which contributed $909 million after ramping up production during the year.

Mineral Resources is guiding for attributable iron ore sales of 20 million to 21.7 million tonnes in FY27.

The post Why has the Mineral Resources share price fallen 12% this week? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Over the last year, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) has slipped 2.1%, with the All Ords having dropped 4% in the past month.

Here's how the performance from these top ASX lithium shares compares:

• Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) are up 12.2% in a year and down 22.3% in a month.
• Pls Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares – formerly Pilbara Minerals – are up 85.2% in a year and down 17.9% in a month.
• IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) shares are up 40.7% in a year and down 17.4% in a month.
• Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) shares are up 224.6% in a year and down 6.1% in a month.
• Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares are up 41.7% in a year and down 19.0% in a month.

The common headwind battering all of the miners over the last month is the sharp retrace in global lithium prices.

While the lithium carbonate price remains up 79% since this time last year, it's fallen 34% from its mid-May multi-year highs. And that fall accelerated in recent weeks, with the lithium price slumping 17% since 1 September.

A lot of that decline has come after global and Australian miners ramped up their production amid higher lithium prices, which looks to have quickly led to an oversupply situation.

But ASX lithium shares, and their stockholders, could have more to worry about than just an oversupply of lithium.

Indeed, investors would do well to keep one eye on sodium, an element widely available across the globe.

Will sodium batteries put more pressure on ASX lithium shares?

Lithium batteries aren't the only way to store large amounts of energy.

Indeed, in potentially concerning news for ASX lithium shares, Chinese battery manufacturing giant CATL expects that sodium-based batteries could take a big slice of market share from lithium batteries.

Addressing the Australian Financial Review Asia Summit, CATL Australia chairman John Kwon said sodium-ion battery costs will likely be on par with lithium-ion batteries early in 2027.

While Kwon said lithium batteries would remain a superior choice for EVs, sodium batteries could be better for data centre power storage. He noted that sodium batteries aren't as sensitive to temperature as lithium batteries. And they can be recharged more often.

"Sodium-ion is now moving from development towards commercial deployment," Kwon said (quoted by the AFR).

He added:

Sodium-ion is an important development because it creates another pathway for scaling battery deployment using widely available raw materials and adding flexibility to global supply chains.

And ASX lithium shares could be facing that fresh competition soon, with Kwon forecasting that sodium batteries should be commercially available in Australia by mid-2027.

The post Could this evolving development smash ASX lithium shares like Liontown, Mineral Resources and PLS? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.