Four of the fastest rising 10 stocks on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) today are lithium shares.

The best performer is diversified miner Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN), up 6.1% to $62.97 per share.

Next is lithium and nickel producer IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO), up 5.7% to $9.23 per share.

The Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price is 5.3% higher on Friday at $2.18.

The market's largest pure-play lithium company, PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS), cracked a new record at $6.14 today.

The PLS Group share price is currently $6.01, up 5.3%.

Among the smaller players outside the ASX 200, Elevra Lithium Ltd (ASX: ELV) shares hit a 52-week high of $10.39.

The Elevra Lithium share price is currently $10.31, up 11.9%.

Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) shares are up 9.4% to 37 cents apiece.

Lake Resources NL (ASX: LKE) shares are 7.6% higher at 9.9 cents.

What's driving ASX lithium shares higher?

Experts say the Iran war and ensuing global oil shock are reminding us of the value of electric vehicles (EV).

The lithium carbonate price has risen 9% this week and is up 43% year to date (YTD), according to Trading Economics data.

Analysts at Trading Economics say lithium prices are rising on a bullish future outlook.

Chinese EV manufacturer BYD announced it expects to sell more EVs this year due to the oil shock.

BYD has raised its 2026 sales forecast to 1.5 million units, up from the January estimate of 1.3 million units.

The analysts said:

The surge in crude oil and product prices since the start of March supported the outlook for larger economies to favor new energy vehicles, which use batteries that take lithium as a major input.

Demand also remained supported by Chinese investment in power infrastructure, recently exemplified by the announcement of higher power storage spending.

This was combined with Beijing stating it would double national EV charging capacity to 180 gigawatts by 2027, supporting lithium-rich energy storage systems.

In the meantime, Zimbabwe suspended exports of lithium concentrates and other raw materials to stimulate refining in the country.

Oil shock a tailwind for lithium prices

Lithium prices were already rebounding from a painful two-year downward spiral before the war in Iran began.

We have seen a rapid turnaround in lithium prices from mid-2025.

Supply/demand rebalanced after a long period of oversupply last year.

We also saw the impact of the green energy transition finally bleed through to markets in 2025.

Other commodity prices joined lithium in an upward surge in 2025 as the world began building new power infrastructure at scale.

The lithium carbonate price lifted to a two-year high of about US$26,200 per tonne in January.

It endured a short, sharp fall to just below US$20,000 in early February as part of a broader metals and minerals rout.

Today, the lithium carbonate price is US$24,850, representing a 43% year-to-date gain.

Lithium spodumene is up from about US$600 per tonne in June 2025 to US$2,415 per tonne today.

The post ASX lithium shares rally as oil shock highlights EV appeal appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

US President Donald Trump said Iran has agreed to several demands during further talks between the two nations.

Meanwhile, the US continues its blockade of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf, and Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire.

Amid this week's ongoing turmoil, brokers have reduced their ratings on six ASX 200 shares this week.

Let's take a look.

Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC)

The Lynas Rare Earths share price is $20.76, down 0.1% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 mining share has lifted 3.7%.

Morgan Stanley downgraded Lynas shares to a hold rating on Wednesday.

The broker increased its 12-month price target from $18.50 to $20.45.

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS)

The PLS Group share price is $5.98, up 4.8% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 lithium share has rocketed 28%.

Morgan Stanley downgraded this stock to a hold rating this week.

The broker shaved its 12-month price target from $5.30 to $5.25.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC)

The Westpac share price is $39.58, down 1.1% today.

Over the past month, the ASX 200 bank share has fallen 4.6%.

Morgans downgraded Westpac shares from a trim to sell rating this week.

The broker has a $34.04 target on the financial stock.

Morgans said:

WBC published a trading update ahead of its 1H26 result due for release on 5 May.

Implied revenues were weaker, costs lower, and credit impairment charges higher than our and market expectations.

We revise our rating from TRIM to SELL as total return expectations at current prices have fallen below the -10% trigger.

Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ)

The Bank of Queensland share price is $7.29, up 0.2%.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 financial share has lifted 5.3%.

Morgans downgraded the bank share to a hold rating on Wednesday.

The broker has a $7.39 target price on Bank of Queensland shares.

Morgans said:

We expect a material decline in 1H26 earnings, with recent share price strength driven by the expected capital return from the equipment finance whole-of-loan sale.

Share price strength has compressed total return potential to c.5%.

As such, we moderate our rating from ACCUMULATE to HOLD.

Seek Ltd (ASX: SEK)

The Seek share price is $15.54, up 1.1% today.

Over the past month, this ASX communications share has increased 6.4%.

Jefferies downgraded Seek shares to a hold rating this week.

The broker slashed its 12-month price target from $24.80 to $15.90.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

The Mineral Resources share price is $62.47, up 5.3% today.

The ASX 200 mining share is 13.3% higher over the past month.

Morgans lowered its rating from buy to accumulate this week.

The broker has a slightly reduced 12-month price target of $67.

Morgans said:

We have updated our 2H26 forecasts to reflect weather impacts in 3Q26, which we expect to have a modest effect on Onslow iron ore shipments, alongside minor increases to cost and capex assumptions driven by inflation in shipping and fuel.

We have also incorporated our revised LT iron ore price of US$85/t (previously US$80/t).

… we move to an ACCUMULATE rating (previously BUY) as recent share price strength has reduced valuation upside.

The post 6 ASX 200 shares downgraded by the experts this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

And in a perfect world, this is all that we would experience.

Unfortunately, the investing world isn't perfect and sometimes shares you own will cop a downgrade from brokers.

Two such ASX shares that have experienced exactly this from analysts at Morgans this week are named below. Let's see why the broker has just downgraded these shares:

GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG)

This fund manager released its quarterly update this month. While the broker sees a few positives from the update, the overall story remains somewhat negative with outflows continuing.

Combined with a poor investment performance, this has seen Morgans lower its medium-term earnings estimates for GQG Partners.

This has led to the broker downgrading GQG Partners' shares to an accumulate rating with a trimmed price target of $1.92. This implies potential upside of 13% for investors from current levels. It commented:

GQG has provided a March FUM update. Whilst GQG monthly outflows remained negative (-US$1.2bn), they did improve significantly on the February and January levels (-US$3.2bn and -US$4.2bn respectively), albeit it was a more difficult month for investment performance (-~US$9bn) – in line with market volatility. We lower our GQG FY26F/FY27F EPS by -5%-8% based on the reduced FUM levels detailed in the quarterly. Our PT is set at A$1.92 (previously A$2.03). We continue to see medium-term value in GQG, but with less upside to our PT we move from BUY to ACCUMULATE.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

Another ASX share that Morgans has downgraded this month is mining and mining services company Mineral Resources.

The broker made the move in response to negative weather impacts and higher cost assumptions due to inflation in shipping and fuel.

Morgans has cut its recommendation on Mineral Resources shares to an accumulate rating with a trimmed price target of $67.00. This implies potential upside of 14% for investors over the next 12 months. It commented:

We have updated our 2H26 forecasts to reflect weather impacts in 3Q26, which we expect to have a modest effect on Onslow iron ore shipments, alongside minor increases to cost and capex assumptions driven by inflation in shipping and fuel. We have also incorporated our revised LT iron ore price of US$85/t (previously US$80/t). Net these changes our target price moves to A$67ps (previously A$68ps) and we move to an ACCUMULATE rating (previously BUY) as recent share price strength has reduced valuation upside.

The post 2 ASX shares downgraded by Morgans this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to rise again

The Australian share market looks set to rise again on Wednesday following a strong night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 47 points or 0.5% higher. In the United States, the Dow Jones rose 0.65%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.2%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.95%.

Oil prices sink

ASX 200 energy shares such as Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a poor session after oil prices sank overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 6.95% to US$92.20 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 4.4% to US$88.85 a barrel. The catalyst for this was optimism that a US-Iran peace deal could be on the way.

Telix shares on watch

Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX) shares will be on watch on Wednesday after the radiopharmaceuticals company announced a US$550 million convertible notes offering. The company's managing director and CEO, Dr. Christian Behrenbruch, said: "The refinance of the existing Convertible Bonds represents our proactive approach to capital management. The new Convertible Bonds will continue to provide the business with cost effective financing." Telix notes that the new convertible bonds represent attractive, low-cost financing and are non-dilutive until any potential future conversions occur. The initial conversion price will be at a premium to Telix's current share price.

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a good session on Wednesday after the gold price stormed higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 2% to US$4,864.5 an ounce. This was driven by confirmation that a second round of US-Iran peace talks are taking place.

Mineral Resources shares downgraded

Morgans has downgraded Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares this week. According to the note, the broker has reduced its rating to accumulate (from buy) and cut its price target to $67.00 (from $68.00). It said: "We have updated our 2H26 forecasts to reflect weather impacts in 3Q26, which we expect to have a modest effect on Onslow iron ore shipments, alongside minor increases to cost and capex assumptions driven by inflation in shipping and fuel."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

After a 32% surge in CY25, the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) managed just a 1.1% gain over the first quarter of CY26.

Let's recap.

What happened in the first quarter?

The miners had momentum in January as commodity prices skyrocketed on new year optimism following an extraordinary run in CY25.

The gold price ripped from just over US$4,300 per ounce on 31 December to a new record of US$5,608 on 29 January.

Then came the sell-off, with commodities plummeting over just a few days. The gold price fell 21% to US$4,400 per ounce by 2 February.

The sell-off was triggered by US President Donald Trump nominating the more hawkish contender, Kevin Warsh, to be the next Fed chair.

Investors feared tighter US monetary policy, which would be a headwind for metals prices, so they sold their mining shares to preserve profits.

For the month of January, the ASX 200 materials sector rose 9.5%.

In February, metals prices rebounded as the 5 key drivers of a new commodities supercycle continued to drive demand.

The materials sector lifted a further 9% over the month.

Then came the war.

On 28 February (US time), Israel and the US launched missile strikes on Iran on the basis of eliminating its ability to build nuclear weapons.

This injected fear into markets, with the ensuing oil shock driving oil and gas prices substantially higher.

That's no good for the mining sector, which now faces higher energy costs and potentially constrained supply, which may limit production.

This led to a dramatic dive for ASX 200 mining shares this month.

At the time of writing, the materials sector is down 15.3% over March, with almost all of the gains over January and February wiped out.

What's next for ASX 200 mining shares?

We saw signs of a fightback last week, with ASX 200 materials the fastest rising market sector with a 4.6% gain.

Investors may be buying the dip on ASX 200 mining shares on hopes that negotiations between the US and Iran will end this war soon.

The long-term outlook for mining shares is bright, with Australia in the early stages of a new mining boom driven primarily by the green energy transition, and increasingly, a desire among western nations for greater sovereign manufacturing capability and energy security.

Experts say a new metals supercycle is underway, with the primary beneficiaries being copper, uranium, lithium, rare earths, and silver.

How BHP shares fared in 1Q FY26

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price has lifted 9.8% in the first quarter to $49.93 at the time of writing.

The following chart demonstrates the rollercoaster ride over 1Q CY26 for the market's largest ASX 200 mining share.

BHP shares reached a record $59.39 on 3 March before plummeting as the war in Iran prompted investors to take profits.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares lifted 8.8% over 1Q FY26 to $159.69 today, while Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) fell 8.2% to $20.21 today.

The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price rose fell 1.6% to $53.55 today.

The South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) share price rocketed 19.2% over 1Q CY26 to $4.25 today.

The post ASX 200 mining shares ride a rollercoaster in March quarter appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

ASX mining shares have been the worst hit by the war in Iran, with the materials sector losing 15.3% of its value since the conflict began.

Some investors took profits this month after a strong run for ASX 200 mining shares, amid fears that higher diesel prices and potential shortages could hurt earnings and production for 2H FY26.

ASX 200 mining shares have also declined alongside metals prices, with gold down 17%, silver down 22%, lithium carbonate down 8%, and copper down 7% over the month. Iron ore has demonstrated resilience, rising 7% over the period to US$106 per tonne on Friday.

With the US and Iran still negotiating a 15-point plan for peace, it is hoped this war and the ensuing global oil shock will be over soon.

This may have motivated some investors to take up new or enhanced positions in ASX 200 mining shares last week, given the bright long-term outlook for the sector and the opportunity to buy the dip.

Reflecting the miners' fightback last week, the S&P/ASX 300 Metal & Mining Index (ASX: XMM) rose 4.4% while the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gained 1% to finish at 8,516.3 points.

Seven of the 11 market sectors finished in the green last week.

Let's recap.

ASX 200 mining shares fight back

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price increased 6.1% to close at $50.37 on Friday.

BHP shares reached a record $59.39 on 3 March before the war prompted investors to take profits.

Despite last week's rebound, the ASX 200's largest mining stock remains 13.8% lower over 30 days.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares lifted 4.3% to $153.23 last week, while Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) gained 6.5% to $20.19.

The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price soared 9.7% to $56.69.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) shares increased 1.3% to $4.03 per share.

ASX 200 copper share Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) lifted 1.8% to $15.88, while Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC) edged 0.6% lower to $10.14.

ASX 200 lithium shares had a ripsnorter of a week, with PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) rocketing 21.8% to close at $5.15 on Friday.

The Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price soared 20.9% to $1.77, and Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) gained 11.9% to 24 cents.

Nickel and lithium producer IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) lifted 16.5% to $7.93 per share.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) shares closed the week 2.7% higher at $10.08 apiece.

Bauxite and alumina producer Alcoa Corporation CDI (ASX: AAI) lifted 3.5% to $85.95 per share.

What about ASX gold shares?

The market's largest ASX 200 gold share, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) rose 0.3% to close at $18.55 on Friday.

The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price lifted 0.4% to $12.46, and Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) rose 3.1% to $146.85.

Among the mid-caps, Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) shares lifted 2.1% to $3.96, and Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) rose 1.1% to $6.26.

Gold and copper miner, Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP) fell 3.5% to $9.76.

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

The post ASX 200 mining shares rebound after March sell-off creates opportunities appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

By the time the markets closed this Wednesday, the ASX 200 had risen by another 0.59% after staying in green territory all session, leaving the index at 8,743.5 points. 

This happy hump day for the local markets comes after a nervous morning over on Wall Street.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) was volatile, but ended up closing 0.072% lower.

Things were a bit better for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC), though, which overcame its own shakiness to finish 0.0051% higher.

But let's get back to the Australian share market now and see what was happening amongst the various ASX sectors today.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

By the time trading wrapped up today, the ASX 200 had gained a healthy 1.09% after initially rallying even harder this morning (up 2% at one point). This session's rise leaves the index at 8,692.6 points.

This happy Tuesday for the Australian markets follows an optimistic start to the American trading week in the early hours of this morning (our time).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) returned from the weekend with a spring in its step, rising 0.5%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) was even more enthusiastic, gaining a rosy 1.38%.

But let's return to the local markets now and take stock of how the different ASX sectors were lifted, or not, by today's market tide.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The ASX materials sector, which is dominated by the mega miners, is 2.3% higher, while the energy sector is down 3.5%.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is in recovery mode today, up 1%, after a surge in oil prices created a $90 billion rout yesterday.

While the war in Iran is dominating headlines, longer-term trends in our investment markets continue to play out.

One of them is a new commodities 'super cycle' that seems to be taking strong hold of our share market.

So, let's dig into the question posed in our headline today.

Is Australia now in a new mining boom?

Australia's last mining boom, from the early 2000s through to 2013, was primarily driven by China's rapid industrialisation.

This period saw a big increase in iron ore and coal prices, major investment in mining infrastructure, and a substantial lift in exports.

It appears we've now entered a new mining boom, but this one is not going to centre on iron ore, nor demand from just China.

This boom will centre on critical materials with industrial applications tied to electrification, power generation, and energy security.

Demand will come from many nations, underpinned by structural changes in the global economy that will take decades to play out.

Paul Wong and Jacob White from Sprott Asset Management name copper, uranium, lithium, rare earths, and silver as the commodities to watch.

In an article, Wong and White said:

[This is] a new kind of commodity supercycle.

The emerging bull market is not repeating past cycles, and is being driven by deglobalization, fiscal dominance and the global push for energy, infrastructure and strategic, domestic supply chains.

AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, Shane Oliver, also says we are embarking on "a new super cycle in commodities".

In a recent article, Dr Oliver said:

… the commodity price slump from their 2008-2011 highs looks to be over with commodities embarking on a new super cycle bull market driven by constrained supply after low levels of investment and electrification and rising defence spending driving increased demand for metals.

This will benefit Australia's resource stocks.

Iron ore is likely to feature less this time around partly reflecting slowing urbanisation in China and its property slump.

Commodity prices and ASX mining shares

The price of gold, silver, copper, lithium, and many critical minerals skyrocketed last year amid rising demand and low supply.

This pushed up the prices and returns of scores of ASX mining shares, with materials the top sector of 2025, returning a staggering 36%.

Gold is part of this mining boom, but for different reasons. Gold is benefiting from central bank buying and safe-haven investor demand.

Wong and White added:

After years of shrinking representation in global portfolios, commodities and resource equities have broken out above multi-year trading ranges, an action that, in our view, marks the developing stages of the new commodity bull market.

Impact on ASX mining shares

The new mining boom is already playing out in the Australian share market.

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is up 31% over 12 months and 12.2% in the YTD.

BHP shares recently soared to $59.39 apiece, their highest level in 140 years, and the miner is once again the market's largest company.

Many other ASX mining shares have also hit new records.

These include Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares at $170.71 per share and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) at $31.96 per share.

Take a look at the 12-month change in these ASX mining shares below.

Foolish Takeaway

Wong and White emphasise that this mining boom will not be broad-based, and targeted exposure is important.

They said:

Broad commodity exposure may lack focus on the critical materials currently leading this cycle.

Investors are increasingly focusing on companies tied directly to critical materials and structural demand trends.

As an example, Wong and White point out that copper miners are outperforming diversified miners.

We can see this by comparing the performance of Global X Copper Miners AUD ETF (ASX: WIRE), up 84% over 12 months, to diversified ETF BetaShares Australian Resources Sector ETF (ASX: QRE), up 42%, and VanEck Australian Resources ETF (ASX: MVR), up 48%.

Wong and White conclude:

We see considerable room for continued outperformance from select commodities and the associated equities. 

The post Australia's next great ASX mining boom: Are we already in it? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

To narrow things down, let's see what Morgans is saying about the three popular ASX shares named below.

Here's what the broker is recommending:

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1)

Morgans is positive on this network-as-a-service provider following its half-year results.

After reviewing the results, the broker has retained its buy rating with a $16.00 price target. It commented:

After doing a post result deep dive into one-off versus recurring costs implied in 2H26 guidance, we now understand 2H26 includes a number of one-off costs. We update our forecasts, lowering our FY27/28 OPEX due to expectations of a higher underlying 2H26 exit rate EBITDA margin relative to that implied in guidance (which includes meaningful one-off costs in 2H26). We lift our FY27/28 EBITDA forecasts by 15-20%. Our forecasts now sit in line with consensus. Our target price lifts to $16.00 and we retain our Buy rating.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

Another ASX 200 share that Morgans is positive on is mining and mining services company Mineral Resources.

Morgans was pleased with the clear step change in profitability during the first half, which is helping to strengthen its balance sheet.

In response, Morgans put a buy rating on its shares with a $68.00 price target. It said:

1H26 EBITDA and underlying NPAT beat consensus with Onslow, Mining Services and lithium delivering a clear step change in profitability. MIN is firmly on track to achieve <2x ND/EBITDA within 6 months supported by strong earnings and POSCO proceeds. Move to a BUY recommendation (previously HOLD) with embedded growth from Onslow moving to 38Mtpa and additional lithium capacity underpinning medium-term upside.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

Finally, Morgans was pleased with Rio Tinto's performance in FY 2025. However, it wasn't enough for a broker upgrade. This is especially the case given its concerns over the miner potentially looking at deal-making at the top of the cycle.

As a result, Morgans has a trim rating and $146.00 price target on Rio Tinto's shares. The broker said:

Solid earnings result, albeit flat earnings despite Copper EBITDA doubling. An investment heavy phase, FCF will rise on Simandou/OT ramp. Underlying NPAT US$10.9bn (in line with cons). Final dividend was 254 USc (+1% vs cons).

Whether RIO prove sceptics wrong and unlock value from mega deals at the top of the cycle is a key question and risk. We lean towards 'no', as in our experience M&A action in bull markets pushes listed targets beyond fair value. RIO is keeping pace with the upgrade cycle, which supports gains but undermines our view on further value, although it remains one of the highest quality sector exposures. We maintain a TRIM rating on RIO with a valuation-based A$146 target price (previously A$142).

The post Buy, hold, sell: Megaport, Mineral Resources, and Rio Tinto shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

As usual, it was the major ASX 200 mining shares that propelled the sector higher.

The highlight was the BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price ascending to its highest level in 140 years as a listed company.

BHP shares rose above their previous record of $54.55, set in mid-2021, on Monday; then lifted further to $58.29 on Thursday.

BHP also took back its title as the market's largest company from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) on Friday.

Meantime, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) rose 1.29% to finish the week at a record high of 9,198.6 points.

Six of the sectors finished the week in the green.

Let's review.

ASX materials sector back in the saddle

The Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) share price lifted 2.47% to finish the week at $167.33.

The Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) share price rose 5.49% to $21.14 after the miner revealed its 1H FY26 results on Wednesday.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares rose 19% to $60.98.

The ASX 200 mining share is riding a new wave of momentum after reporting record EBITDA of $1.2 billion for 1H FY26, up 286%.

The South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) share price climbed 4.78% to $4.60.

Among the ASX 200 gold mining shares, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) rose 6.88% to close at $30.28 on Friday.

The Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) share price increased 5.73% to $177.20.

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares rose 10.17% to finish the week at $16.58.

The Evolution share price reached a record $16.99 in intraday trading on Friday.

ASX 200 copper pure-play Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) rose 7.17% to $20.19 on Friday.

Capstone Copper Corp CDI (ASX: CSC) shares finished 4.48% higher at $14.70.

ASX 200 lithium mining share PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) soared 24.16% to close the week at $5.19.

PLS Group shares are also on an upward trajectory after the miner revealed a 241% EBITDA surge in 1H FY26.

The Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price rose 5.25% to $1.71 on no price-sensitive news last week.

Among ASX 200 ASX rare earths shares, Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) ripped 21.05% higher to $18.98.

Last week, Lynas Rare Earths reported a net profit of $80.2 million for 1H FY26, up from $5.9 million in 1H FY25.

Scores of ASX 200 shares have ex-dividend dates next week. Check them out here.

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

The post ASX 200 materials sector leads as earnings season ends with a record high appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Both ASX 200 miners divulged their latest earnings reports last week.

On Thursday, Rio Tinto reported a 9% increase in underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) to US$25.4 billion for full-year FY25.

The miner reported stable underlying earnings of US$10.9 billion and a 14% reduction in net profit attributable to owners to US$10 billion.

Rio Tinto shares will pay a fully franked final dividend of US$2.54 per share.

On Friday, Mineral Resources revealed a record EBITDA of $1.2 billion for 1H FY26, up a whopping 286% on 1H FY25.

The underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) was $343 million, up 275% year-over-year, with no dividend declared.

Mineral Resources shares haven't paid a dividend since 1H FY24 due to management's preference to strengthen the balance sheet.

The experts have since pored over the numbers and updated their ratings and 12-month price targets on both ASX 200 mining shares.

Let's take a look.

Rio Tinto shares

Goldman Sachs downgraded Rio Tinto shares to a hold rating after reviewing the full-year report.

However, the broker raised its 12-month price target on Rio Tinto from $160 to $165 per share.

Ord Minnett retained its buy rating and reduced its target slightly from $173 to $172.

Morgan Stanley kept its hold rating with a target of $140.

Macquarie reiterated its hold rating with a price target of $155.

UBS kept its hold rating with a price target of $160.

Morgans maintained its trim rating and lifted its price target from $142 to $146 per share.

In a note, the broker said:

Solid earnings result, albeit flat earnings despite Copper EBITDA doubling.

An investment heavy phase, FCF will rise on Simandou/OT ramp.

Whether RIO prove sceptics wrong and unlock value from mega deals at the top of the cycle is a key question and risk.

We lean towards 'no', as in our experience M&A action in bull markets pushes listed targets beyond fair value.

RIO is keeping pace with the upgrade cycle, which supports gains but undermines our view on further value, although it remains one of the highest quality sector exposures.

Mineral Resources shares

After reviewing the miner's 1H FY26 results, Morgans upgraded Mineral Resources shares to a buy rating.

The broker increased its 12-month share price target from $66 to $68.

RBC Capital reiterated its buy rating with a 12-month price target of $67.

UBS kept its buy rating with a price target of $68.

Bell Potter maintained its buy rating with a price target of $70.

Macquarie reiterated its buy rating on Mineral Resources shares and lifted its price target from $75 to $76.

The post Own Rio Tinto or Mineral Resources shares? Here are the updated expert ratings post-results appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

By the time trading wrapped up today, the ASX 200 had given up a morning lead to close down 0.041%. That small drop leaves the index at 9,022.3 points.

This miserly session for the ASX follows an even nastier start to the American trading week on Wall Street in the early hours of this morning.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) was crushed, dropping 1.66%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) fared slightly better, but still lost 1.13% of its value.

But let's return to the local markets and take stock of how the different ASX sectors fared amid today's tough trading conditions.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

After a strong start at market open, the ASX 200 fell into negative territory mid-morning and never recovered, closing down a hefty 0.61%. That leaves the index at a flat 9,026 points.

This painful start to the trading week for the Australian markets comes after a far rosier end to the American trading week on Saturday morning (our time).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) was in fine form, cruising 0.47% higher.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) did one better, gaining 0.9%.

But let's get back to this week and the local markets now, though, for a deeper dive into what was happening amongst the various ASX sectors this session.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lithium miner and diversified resources producer closed yesterday trading for $54.09. In morning trade on Friday, shares are changing hands for $56.36 apiece, up 4.2%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.2% at this same time.

This outperformance follows the release of the miner's half-year results for the six months to 31 December (H1 FY 2026).

Here's what we know.

Mineral Resources shares jump on record results

Mineral Resources shares are catching plenty of investor interest after the miner reported record half year earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $1.2 billion. That's up 286% from H1 FY 2025.

Revenue of $3.1 billion, up 33% year-on-year, also marked a new all-time half year high.

The ASX 200 mining stock credited the strong result to an "outstanding operational performance".

The company cited improved lithium recoveries, record earnings from its Mining Services division, and Onslow Iron sustaining its 35 million tonne per annum (Mtpa) nameplate capacity since August as driving the record results.

Mining Services hit record production of 166 million tonnes with EBITDA of $488 million, up 29% year-on-year.

Over the six months, the miner generated free cash flow of $293 million after capital expenditure of $587 million.

On the bottom line, Mineral Resources shares are catching tailwinds today with underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) of $343 million, up 275% year on year. Reported NPAT for H1 FY 2026 came in at $573 million, up 171%.

On the balance sheet, the company held cash of $638 million as at 31 December, up 55%. The six months saw liquidity strengthening to $1.4 billion and net debt cut by $471 million to $4.9 billion.

Looking ahead, the ASX 200 miners reaffirmed its full year FY 2026 volume and cost guidance.

What did management say?

Commenting on the results helping boost Mineral Resources shares today, managing director Chris Ellison said, "I'm pleased to report that MinRes has delivered the strongest six-month period in the company's history."

According to Ellison:

The result – which was driven by operational performance rather than extraordinary commodity prices – validates the strategic decisions we've made over recent years and demonstrates the quality and resilience of our asset base.

The transformation of this business is now evident with Onslow Iron at nameplate capacity. This would not have been possible without our world-class Mining Services business.

Turning to the miner's lithium division, Ellison said:

Our lithium operations have proven their quality through a challenging market cycle, generating EBITDA of $167 million. Wodgina achieved a milestone 70% processing recovery rate in the December quarter, with further improvements expected as we access more fresh ore towards the end of the calendar year.

With lithium prices having recovered strongly, we are well positioned to capture the upside as market fundamentals continue to improve.

Factoring in today's intraday moves, Mineral Resources shares are up 118.2% in 12 months, smashing the 8.9% one-year gains posted by the ASX 200.

The post Mineral Resources shares leaping higher on record smashing $3.1 billion revenue appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

How impressive?

Well, over the past 12 months, the ASX 200 has gained a respectable 6.6%.

Despite the past month's retrace, however, ASX 200 lithium shares have left those gains wanting.

Here's how these leading Aussie miners have performed over the last full year:

• Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares have gained 72.1%
• Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares have gained 191.2%
• Pls Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) – formerly Pilbara Minerals – shares have gained 108.0%
• IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) shares have gained 88.6%

And though it was booted from the ASX 200 after its market cap crashed in 2023 and 2024, we'll give a nod to Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) shares as well, up 133.3% in 12 months.

The common thread helping all of these miners smash the benchmark returns is the surging global lithium price.

Over the past eight months, spodumene (a lithium bearing ore) prices have rocketed more than 200% amid expectations of strong demand and reduced supply from China. Spodumene was recently trading near US$2,000 per tonne, up from around US$600 per tonne last June.

Which brings us back to our headline question.

Can these rocketing ASX 200 lithium shares keep charging higher?

If you're looking at buying shares in the likes of PLS, Liontown, Mineral Resources, or IGO, then you should expect your future returns to be heavily impacted by the going price of lithium.

So, will these surging ASX 200 lithium shares continue to enjoy a rebound in the price of the battery-critical metal?

Well, that depends on who you ask.

On the bullish side, UBS recently increased its lithium price outlook by 74% after reviewing expected demand from global EV markets and energy storage demand.

The broker forecasts a 14% increase in global lithium demand in 2026 with another 16% increase in 2027. In light of this, UBS expects the spodumene price to reach US$3,131 per tonne. That's up from UBS' prior forecast of US$1,800 per tonne, and more than 50% above current levels.

On the more bearish side of the equation, Vivek Dhar, commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), noted that global miners have the potential to add a significant amount of lithium supply to markets amid higher lithium prices.

According to Dhar (quoted by The Australian Financial Review):

Despite these solid demand forecasts, it's hard to believe that lithium prices can keep going, especially like it did in 2022, given the latent supply that can come online due to higher lithium prices.

ECP Asset Management partner Andrew Dale also believes the biggest gains from ASX 200 lithium shares like Liontown, PLS, and Mineral Resources have probably already been delivered.

"There is a lot of appetite among investors to get exposure to hard assets like lithium, iron ore and gold," Dale said.

He added:

The outlook for these resources remains strong; however, for investors who are currently underweight … the ship has probably already sailed, as the price for these resources is on the higher end.

The post Is it too late to buy surging ASX 200 lithium shares like PLS and Liontown? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The analyst team at UBS noted that prices of lithium have been strong, rallying 65% since their last update, but they said there would be continued strong demand from the electric vehicle sector, with EVs close to reaching so-called "triple parity".

This meant that EVs were becoming competitive across cost, range, and charging time when compared with traditional internal combustion engines.

The UBS team said it expects lithium demand to increase 14% in 2026 and 16% in 2027.

They said further:

We continue to be positive long-term and see demand volumes 2x by 2030 to 3.4Mt (vs 1.7Mt in 2025e). We see the market growing at a 13% CAGR through to 2035.

UBS is expecting EV sales to reaccelerate over the medium term, and it expects global EV penetration of 58% by 2035.

With regard to battery energy storage systems (BESS), UBS said new policy moves in China led it to upgrade its 2035 outlook by 30% to 53%.

Supply not meeting demand

On the supply side, UBS said primary supply grew at 18% in 2025, or closer to 23% once recycling was factored in, which was short of demand growth of 29%.

UBS added:

This resulted in a market deficit and inventory drawdown through the year. For 2026, we assess risk-weighted supply as likely to grow by about 14% (excluding recycling). By country, China, Australia, Argentina and Zimbabwe lead the pack for growth in risk weighted supply from 2025 to 2027.

On the price front, UBS has upgraded its price outlook by 74%.

The broker said:

We are wary of the difficulties of picking a suitable price level when spot prices have historically been more than eight times higher than long-term incentive prices and with converter margins historically poor in providing guard rails around reasonable feedstock pricing. However, from a qualitative perspective, we note that our current price forecasts remain well within historical range and note i) for EVs, automakers have previously been able to adapt with modest impacts on overall demand, and ii) for BESS, that material costs are less significant (vs. module/battery costs).

UBS now has a forecast spodumene price of US$3,131 per tonne, up from its previous price target of US$1,800.

The forecast will be good news for Australian companies such as IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO), Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN), and Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO), with the latter looking to bring its Finniss operations in the Northern Territory back online if lithium prices are high enough.

The post The lithium price could increase by how much! appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lithium miner and diversified resources producer closed yesterday trading for $55.65. In afternoon trade on Thursday, shares are swapping hands for $54.53 apiece, down 2.0%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.2% at this same time.

Last week, on 27 January, Mineral Resources shares hit one-year-plus highs, closing the day trading for $63.98.

Not coincidentally, that high-water mark coincided with lithium carbonate prices notching their own two-year highs.

However, amid concerns that Chinese lithium demand may not be as robust as assumed, lithium prices have slumped 15% since 26 January. Though it's worth noting that lithium carbonate prices are still above the levels we saw throughout 2024 and 2025.

As you'd expect, this recent sharp retrace in lithium prices has thrown up headwinds for most every ASX lithium stock. Indeed, Mineral Resources shares are down 14.7% since 27 January.

Despite that slide, though, shares in the ASX 200 mining stock remain up 278.7% since plumbing a multi-year closing low on 9 April.

Which brings us back to our headline question.

Should you buy Mineral Resources shares today?

Morgans' Damien Nguyen recently ran his slide rule over the ASX 200 mining stock (courtesy of The Bull).

"MIN is a diversified resources company in Western Australia. It has extensive operations in lithium, iron ore, energy and mining services," he said.

"Mineral Resources enters 2026 with improved stability after a volatile period, supported by progress at Onslow Iron.," Nguyen added.

Commenting on the company's December quarter update, he noted:

On January 29, 2026, the company upgraded lithium volume guidance and maintained cost guidance at both operations. It reduced net debt to about $4.9 billion as at December 31, 2025.

Explaining his current hold recommendation on Mineral Resources shares, Nguyen concluded:

We remain confident management can successfully execute its strategy and expect strong earnings growth in the current commodity price environment. The shares have risen from $14.40 on April 9, 2025 to trade at $61.18 on January 29, 2026.

At this point, we believe the stock is fully valued.

What's the latest from the ASX 200 lithium stock?

Mineral Resources shares closed down 3.9% on 29 January, with the release of the miner's solid December quarter update unable to outweigh negative market sentiment from the sinking lithium price on the day.

As Nguyen mentioned above, the company upgraded its FY 2026 lithium volume guidance at its Wodgina project to the range of 260,000 dry metric tonnes (dmt) to 280,000 dmt SC6, up from the prior 220,000 dmt to 240,000 dmt.

Mineral Resources also upgraded FY 2026 lithium volume guidance at Mt Marion to 190,000 dmt to 210,000 dmt, up from previous guidance of 160,000 dmt to 180,000 dmt.

The post Up 288% since April, are Mineral Resources shares still a good buy today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

CMC Invest noted that ASX shares were traded at six times the rate of US stocks.

The broker said this indicated a strong home bias for investors who were focused on individual stocks.

Fraser Allan, Head of Premium Client Management Australia/New Zealand, said clients demonstrated "resilience and
discipline" despite volatility in the market last year.

Allan noted that many investors used the tariff-inspired rout in April to buy the dip — a trend seen by other platform providers, too.

He commented:

President Trump's April tariff announcement was one such pivotal moment, where clients acted with conviction rather than
hesitation.

Buy/sell ratios indicate investor confidence

The data shows the percentage of trades that were buy orders and sell orders.

This provides a unique insight into how investors were viewing some ASX shares.

For example, CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) had a clear buying skew despite the share price plummeting after the company's FY25 report in August.

The broker said:

The strong buy skew in CSL stood out as a clear example of buying into weakness, with clients adding exposure despite a significant share price decline over the year.

In the case of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), the buy/sell ratio was much tighter at 56% to 44%, respectively.

The CBA share price climbed to a peak of $192 in late June 2025, ending a remarkable run that had begun in November 2023.

CBA shares then commenced a steep decline, finishing the year only 4.8% up overall.

CMC Invest said:

Trading activity in Commonwealth Bank showed more two-way participation than other top traded Australian shares, with only 56% of orders on the buy side.

This could reflect a degree of polarisation in investor perspectives around company-specific factors such as valuation during 2025.

10 most traded ASX shares of 2025

Here are the 10 most traded ASX shares among the more than one million customers registered on CMC Invest's trading platform.

Source: CMC Invest

The post 10 most traded ASX shares among 1 million Aussie investors last year appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

To narrow things down, let's see what analysts are saying about three popular shares, courtesy of The Bull.

Here's what you need to know about them:

Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG)

The team at Baker Young thinks that investors should be selling this insurance giant's shares this week.

The broker highlights that IAG shares are trading above its estimate of fair value and feels investors should be taking profit. It explains:

The decision by competition regulator, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), to block IAG's proposed acquisition of RAC Insurance (RACI) from the Royal Automobile Club of Western Australia highlights the rising barriers to inorganic growth for IAG. Further, the ACCC decision reflects a desire to stimulate greater competition in the general insurance market. With IAG trading above our valuation, we would be inclined to take profits around current levels.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

Analysts at Morgans highlight that this mining and mining services company's shares have risen very strongly since April. Unfortunately, the broker believes the run is now over and has rated Mineral Resources shares as a hold.

Commenting on the high-flying company, Morgans said:

MIN is a diversified resources company in Western Australia. It has extensive operations in lithium, iron ore, energy and mining services. Mineral Resources enters 2026 with improved stability after a volatile period, supported by progress at Onslow Iron. On January 29, 2026, the company upgraded lithium volume guidance and maintained cost guidance at both operations.

It reduced net debt to about $4.9 billion as at December 31, 2025. We remain confident management can successfully execute its strategy and expect strong earnings growth in the current commodity price environment. The shares have risen from $14.40 on April 9, 2025 to trade at $61.18 on January 29, 2026. At this point, we believe the stock is fully valued.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC)

Morgans thinks that this banking giant's earnings growth could be challenging in the near term. As a result, it feels that investors should sell Westpac shares this week.

The broker believes there are better opportunities for investors elsewhere in the market. It said:

Weaker consumer sentiment in an uncertain policy environment cloud the earnings outlook. Recent economic commentary highlights creeping pessimism among Australian consumers. Uncertainty around interest rate expectations creates a challenging setting for major banks to profitably grow credit. Westpac's long term projections show acceptable returns.

However, in our view, near term momentum appears constrained by operational adjustments, margin pressure and a more cautious economic tone. Given limited earnings catalysts on the horizon, we see better opportunities elsewhere.

The post Buy, hold, sell: IAG, Mineral Resources, and Westpac shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.