S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lithium shares have delivered some seriously impressive returns over the past year.
How impressive?
Well, over the past 12 months, the ASX 200 has gained a respectable 6.6%.
Despite the past month's retrace, however, ASX 200 lithium shares have left those gains wanting.
Here's how these leading Aussie miners have performed over the last full year:
- Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares have gained 72.1%
- Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares have gained 191.2%
- Pls Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) – formerly Pilbara Minerals – shares have gained 108.0%
- IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) shares have gained 88.6%
And though it was booted from the ASX 200 after its market cap crashed in 2023 and 2024, we'll give a nod to Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) shares as well, up 133.3% in 12 months.
The common thread helping all of these miners smash the benchmark returns is the surging global lithium price.
Over the past eight months, spodumene (a lithium bearing ore) prices have rocketed more than 200% amid expectations of strong demand and reduced supply from China. Spodumene was recently trading near US$2,000 per tonne, up from around US$600 per tonne last June.
Which brings us back to our headline question.
Image source: Getty Images
Can these rocketing ASX 200 lithium shares keep charging higher?
If you're looking at buying shares in the likes of PLS, Liontown, Mineral Resources, or IGO, then you should expect your future returns to be heavily impacted by the going price of lithium.
So, will these surging ASX 200 lithium shares continue to enjoy a rebound in the price of the battery-critical metal?
Well, that depends on who you ask.
On the bullish side, UBS recently increased its lithium price outlook by 74% after reviewing expected demand from global EV markets and energy storage demand.
The broker forecasts a 14% increase in global lithium demand in 2026 with another 16% increase in 2027. In light of this, UBS expects the spodumene price to reach US$3,131 per tonne. That's up from UBS' prior forecast of US$1,800 per tonne, and more than 50% above current levels.
On the more bearish side of the equation, Vivek Dhar, commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), noted that global miners have the potential to add a significant amount of lithium supply to markets amid higher lithium prices.
According to Dhar (quoted by The Australian Financial Review):
Despite these solid demand forecasts, it's hard to believe that lithium prices can keep going, especially like it did in 2022, given the latent supply that can come online due to higher lithium prices.
ECP Asset Management partner Andrew Dale also believes the biggest gains from ASX 200 lithium shares like Liontown, PLS, and Mineral Resources have probably already been delivered.
"There is a lot of appetite among investors to get exposure to hard assets like lithium, iron ore and gold," Dale said.
He added:
The outlook for these resources remains strong; however, for investors who are currently underweight … the ship has probably already sailed, as the price for these resources is on the higher end.
