Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares closed at $51.43 on Thursday, up 0.06% for the day and up 49% in 2025.
The ASX 200 miner produces iron ore and lithium, and offers mining services across Australia, Asia, and elsewhere.
Governance issues and financial concerns have plagued this ASX 200 mining share in 2025.
A desire to strengthen the balance sheet contributed to the board's decision not to pay dividends in FY25.
The last dividend Mineral Resources paid was for the first half of FY24.
At the annual general meeting on 20 November, independent non-executive chair Malcolm Bundey said:
We believe it was prudent not to pay dividends in FY25 and have kept capital expenditure to an absolute minimum this financial year, which has strengthened the balance sheet.
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Will Mineral Resources resume dividends in 2026?
Bundey said the discretionary dividend policy of up to 50% of underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) would remain in place next year.
But there are new boundaries: net leverage and liquidity metrics must be met, or likely met, within 12 to 18 months.
Bundey said:
… dividends will now only be paid if our liquidity and leverage thresholds are met, or there's a clear line of sight to meeting them within 12 months.
This ensures we retain a robust balance sheet before paying dividends.
The consensus expectation among analysts on CommSec is that Mineral Resources shares won't pay dividends again until FY27.
The forecast is for a 63.5-cent payment that year.
Key dates for Mineral Resources shares in 2026
We'll find out for sure whether Mineral Resources will resume dividends in FY26 on 20 February.
That's when Mineral Resources will announced its 1H FY26 results. The full-year FY26 results will follow on 27 August.
We'll get quarterly production reports on 29 January, 30 April, 29 July, and 23 October.
Mineral Resources will hold its annual general meeting on 18 November.
Should you buy Mineral Resources shares?
Among 15 traders on the CommSec trading platform, five give Mineral Resources shares a strong buy rating.
Two give the ASX mining share a moderate buy rating, four say hold, one says it's a moderate sell, and three say it's a strong sell.
In a note this week, Macquarie upgraded Mineral Resources shares from an underperform rating to neutral.
The broker raised its earnings per share (EPS) forecast for FY26 by 58% to 156.8 cents per share.
It increased the FY27 forecast by 15% to 158.6 cents per share, with no change for FY27 at 158.6 cents per share.
Macquarie commented:
MIN sees large EPS changes in FY26/27 as iron ore and lithium prices are material raised.
Longer term, EPS is relatively unchanged.
The broker raised its 12-month price target on Mineral Resources shares by 9% from $47 to $51.
Macquarie added:
Movements in spot iron-ore and spodumene prices present the most material risk to our earnings forecasts for MIN.
We make assumptions on the capital and operating costs for projects including Wodgina and Onslow (which is still in a rampup phase).
Variances in these costs vs our forecasts can have a material impact on our earnings forecasts and valuation.
