Three that the broker has been looking at are named below. Let's see if it is bullish on these:

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

Morgans was disappointed to see this infant formula company downgrade its guidance this week. However, it acknowledges that the reasons for the downgrade were out of A2 Milk's control.

And with concerns that the issues could linger, the broker has trimmed its forecasts. Nevertheless, due to share price weakness, Morgans has upgraded A2 Milk's shares to an accumulate rating with an $8.70 price target. It said:

A2M's FY26 earnings downgrade was due to factors largely out of its own control, being higher freight/supply chain costs associated with the conflict in the Middle East and delays getting product released (enhanced testing and customs clearance) following peer recalls. Importantly, the demand for its products is strong. Guidance has been revised due to supply constraints (lower sales and product mix issues dilute margins) and higher costs.

We have revised our forecasts. In our view, while some of the issues are one-off in nature, increased costs associated with the conflict are likely to continue into FY27. Despite this, we still expect strong growth in FY27 given A2 Pokeno is expected to break even and new China label (CL) IF products will be launched. Following material share price weakness, we upgrade to an ACCUMULATE recommendation with a new price target of A$8.70 (was A$9.50).

BMC Minerals Ltd (ASX: BMC)

Morgans notes that this mineral exploration company has received a major boost from authorities in Yukon, Canada.

This has de-risked the Kudz Ze Kayah Project, leaving it well-placed to benefit from strong precious metal prices. As a result, it has retained its speculative buy rating with an improved price target of $5.70. It said:

BMC has received a positive Decision Document from the Government of Yukon for development of the ABM deposit at the Kudz Ze Kayah (KZK) Project. This represents the key de-risking milestone for KZK, addressing what has historically been the primary development headwind.

We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating and A$5.70ps price target (previously A$4.90), with the uplift driven by refreshed precious metals price assumptions and reduced permitting risk. The recent de-risking supports our assumption of future equity funding at 0.7x NAV (previously 0.6x NAV), resulting in lower dilution and a reduced forecast SOI.

Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (ASX: CWY)

The broker highlights that this waste management company has downgraded its guidance due to negative impacts from the war in the Middle East.

While the broker has downgraded its forecasts to reflect this, it remains positive and has put a buy rating and $2.95 price target on its shares. It commented:

CWY has revised down its FY26 EBIT guidance as a result of the impacts of the war in the Middle East. We have updated our forecasts for the EBIT guidance downgrade and higher interest rate environment.

EBITDA downgrades are relatively small but EPS downgrades are material in the short term given the funding and depreciation costs of CWY's asset base. Target price $2.95/sh. BUY retained. Potential upside catalyst is next Tuesday's strategy briefing.

The post What is Morgans saying about A2 Milk and these ASX shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) dairy company closed down a sharp 12.0% yesterday, at $8.04. During the Tuesday lunch hour, shares are changing hands for $7.95 apiece, down 1.1%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.6% at this same time.

Before we look at whether now could be an opportune time to buy the dip in the infant formula stock, let's see why investors were favouring their sell buttons on Monday.

Why did the ASX 200 stock tumble on Monday?

Almost 9.4 million A2 Milk shares swapped hands yesterday, with the ASX 200 stock, as mentioned up top, ending the day down 12.0%.

This came after the company released a trading update highlighting supply and product availability issues in its key China market.

Unexpected headwinds included tighter Chinese customs requirements as well as rising air and sea freight costs amid surging global energy prices.

As The Motley Fool reported yesterday, "While these supply chain disruptions are largely considered temporary, they are expected to materially affect fourth quarter sales, particularly during April and May."

In light of this, management downgraded the company's full year FY 2026 revenue growth forecast to be in the low to mid double-digit percent range. That's down from prior guidance of mid-double digit percent revenue growth.

Earnings are also likely to take a hit, with FY 2026 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin guidance lowered to 14.0% to 14.5%. That's down from the prior guidance of 15.5% to 16.0%.

Which brings us back to our headline question…

Is now a good time to buy A2 Milk shares?

Following on Monday's update, the team at Citi ran their slide rule back over A2 Milk shares (courtesy of The Australian Financial Review).

Commenting on the company's supply chain issues, Citi analyst Sam Teeger said:

We see risk that these constraints may persist for longer than expected, and even when they are resolved, it may not be easy or cheap for a2 to win back consumers who have switched to competitor brands.

Atop A2 Milk potentially losing market share amid these largely external constraints, Teeger added, "The stock's valuation also doesn't leave much scope for anything but flawless execution."

Citi reduced its FY 2026 earnings forecast for A2 Milk by 9%, and reduced the ASX 200 stock to a neutral rating.

The broker also cut its target price for A2 Milk shares by 20% to $8.40. Still, that's 5.7% above the current share price.

The post Should you buy the dip on A2 Milk shares today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The infant formula company's shares ended the session 13% lower at $8.04 following the release of a trading update.

Is this a buying opportunity for investors? Let's see what Bell Potter is saying about it.

What is the broker saying?

Bell Potter was disappointed with the downgrade and has concerns that the issues could remain in FY 2027. It said:

The downgrade to revenue expectations has been driven by lower availability of product, driven by increased testing (following competitor ARA contamination recalls) delaying product release times (SM1 cited an 8-10wk delay at its recent 1H26 result) and resolved supply chain issues at SM1's Dunsandel facility.

The margin downgrade is less clear, with higher freight and testing costs the major drivers. Essentially, the upper end of revised revenue guidance is unchanged from pervious guidance, but EBITDA margins expectations are materially downgraded and we suspect these higher supply chain costs are likely to persist into 1Q27e

The broker also highlights that the lack of stock in China could impact customer acquisition and customer retention in the key market. It adds:

Product availability in China is an issue for Apr-May'26, with likely out-of-stocks, which has the scope limit new customer acquisition and retain existing customers.

Should you buy A2 Milk shares?

In response to the update, the broker has retained its hold rating with a reduced price target of $8.35 (from $9.55).

Based on its current share price of $7.99, this implies modest potential upside of 4.5% for investors over the next 12 months.

However, it also expects a dividend yield of approximately 3% over the period, which boosts the total potential return to around 7.5%.

Commenting on changes to its estimates and the retention of its hold recommendation, Bell Potter said:

NPAT changes are -13% in FY26e, -9% in FY27e and unchanged in FY28e. Our forecasts assume that elevated supply chain costs remain through 1Q27e (elevated freight and testing costs imbedded in COGS). Our target price falls to A$8.35/sh (prev. A$9.55/sh) reflecting earnings changes and movements in the AUDNZD cross rate.

Hold, TP A$8.35/sh. While some of the issues are likely to be temporary in nature (such as elevated air freight) they may well persist into 1Q27e as in-market inventory levels are restored. The deterioration in FY26e margin expectations, when supply chain issues were flagged by SM1 in Feb'26 and are now below Aug'25 guidance levels on a higher revenue base is somewhat concerning, given returning ingredient COG inflation.

The post What is Bell Potter saying about A2 Milk shares after the selloff? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back on Tuesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 set to jump

The Australian share market looks set for a strong session on Tuesday following a positive start to the week in the US. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 122 points or 1.35% higher. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.6%, the S&P 500 rose 1%, and the Nasdaq pushed 1.2% higher.

Oil prices rise

It could be a good session for ASX 200 energy shares Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) after oil prices rose overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 1.5% to US$98.00 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 3.4% to US$98.39 a barrel. Traders were buying oil after the US blockaded Iranian ports.

Buy Pro Medicus shares

The team at Bell Potter remains bullish on Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME) shares following the announcement of a new contract renewal. In response, the broker has retained its buy rating and $226.00 price target. It said: "Longer term, the outlook remains strong with PME FY27 exam revenues expected to benefit from full period benefit of implementations in the current half including the two largest cohorts of the Trinity Health contract plus the Big Bang implementation at U. Colorado covering radiology and cardiology"

Gold price falls

ASX 200 gold shares such as Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) could have a relatively subdued session on Tuesday after the gold price fell overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 0.5% to US$4,763.3 an ounce. A stronger US dollar put pressure on the precious metal.

Hold A2 Milk shares

On Monday, A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) shares crashed 13% following a guidance downgrade. This morning, Bell Potter has responded by retaining its hold rating with a reduced price target of $8.35 (from $9.55). It said: "While some of the issues are likely to be temporary in nature (such as elevated air freight) they may well persist into 1Q27e as in-market inventory levels are restored. The deterioration in FY26e margin expectations, when supply chain issues were flagged by SM1 in Feb'26 and are now below Aug'25 guidance levels on a higher revenue base is somewhat concerning, given returning ingredient COG inflation."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are tumbling:

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

The A2 Milk Company share price is down almost 15% to $7.90. Investors have been selling the infant formula company's shares after it downgraded its guidance for FY 2026 due to supply chain disruptions. A2 Milk now expects revenue growth in the low to mid double-digit range, which is down from its previous guidance of mid double-digit growth. Furthermore, its EBITDA margins are now expected to be between 14% and 14.5% in FY 2026. This is down from its prior guidance of 15.5% to 16%. In light of this, the company's net profit after tax is now expected to be similar to or lower than in FY 2025. Another negative is that cash conversion is expected to fall significantly to around 50%. This is down from prior expectations of 80% for the financial year.

Metallium Ltd (ASX: MTM)

The Metallium share price is down 4% to 61 cents. This morning, the metals recovery company released its quarterly update and reported an operating cash outflow of $5.7 million and an investing activities outflow of $15.2 million. However, thanks to a $75 million capital raising, the company finished the period with cash and equivalents of $82 million.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

The Northern Star share price is down 3.5% to $23.60. Investors have been selling Northern Star and other ASX gold stocks on Monday after the gold price pulled back following the failure of peace talks between the US and Iran. And with the US now threatening to blockade Iranian ports, causing oil prices to surge beyond US$100 a barrel again, there are concerns that inflation could rise and lead to interest rate hikes. The latter is seen as a negative for gold.

St Barbara Ltd (ASX: SBM)

The St Barbara share price is down 3% to 70.2 cents. Not even the release of this gold miner's quarterly update this morning has been able to offset weakness in the gold industry. St Barbara reported a 49% jump in gold production to 13,522 ounces. This underpinned gold sales of 11,974 ounces at an average sale price of A$6,892 per ounce. The company has not finalised its all-in sustaining costs for the third quarter. However, it revealed that it expects a fourth-quarter AISC in the range of $4,100 to $4,500 per ounce.

The post Why A2 Milk, Metallium, Northern Star, and St Barbara shares are sinking today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In early trade, the ASX 200 stock is down 18% to $7.57.

Why is this ASX 200 stock crashing today?

The infant formula company's shares are under pressure today following the release of a trading, supply chain, and outlook update.

According to the release, while demand for its products remains strong, A2 Milk is experiencing significant supply chain disruptions that are expected to impact its FY 2026 performance.

The ASX 200 stock revealed that it is currently facing temporary product availability issues in China, particularly for its China label infant milk formula (IMF) products.

These issues have been driven by a combination of factors, including strong demand, freight disruptions, production constraints, and longer product release and customs clearance times.

Management notes that freight capacity has been impacted by the Middle East conflict, while production has been constrained due to earlier manufacturing challenges and a backlog of orders.

As a result, the company expects these issues to materially impact product availability during the fourth quarter, particularly across April and May.

Guidance downgraded

Due to these challenges, A2 Milk has downgraded its FY 2026 outlook, putting significant pressure on its shares.

The ASX 200 stock now expects revenue growth in the low to mid double-digit range, which is down from its previous guidance of mid double-digit growth.

In addition, EBITDA margins are now expected to be between 14% and 14.5% in FY 2026. This compares to its prior guidance of 15.5% to 16%.

As a result, the company's net profit after tax is now expected to be similar to or lower than in FY 2025, whereas previously it had been forecast to grow.

Cash conversion is also expected to fall significantly to around 50%, down from prior expectations of 80%.

Commenting on the situation, the ASX 200 stock said:

While the supply chain impacts are primarily timing-related and one-off in nature, their cumulative effect is now expected to impact the Company's performance against FY26 guidance, noting their potential impacts are challenging to mitigate at this stage in the financial year due to proximity to year end and end-to-end supply chain lead times.

Notwithstanding these short term challenges, the Company intends to continue to reinvest in the business in 4Q26 to support brand health, growth and long term value creation.

The post Why are A2 Milk shares sinking 18% today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did The a2 Milk Company report?

• Year-to-date demand for a2 brand products remained strong across all regions and channels
• China label IMF sales remain robust, boosted by effective marketing and prior share gains
• Revenue growth for FY26 now expected to be low to mid double-digit percent versus FY25 (previously mid double-digit)
• EBITDA margin guidance lowered to 14.0% to 14.5% (was 15.5% to 16.0%)
• NPAT now forecast to be similar to or down on FY25 reported figure ($203 million)
• Cash conversion revised to approximately 50% (down from 80%)

What else do investors need to know?

Recent strength in demand for a2 Milk's China label IMF products has contributed to temporary supply and product availability issues, with distribution impacted by factors including higher air and sea freight costs, extended quality assurance times, and tighter customs requirements in China. Some product lines, such as a2 Genesis in the cross-border e-commerce channel, have also faced near-term availability issues due to high demand and planned maintenance work.

While these supply chain disruptions are largely considered temporary, they are expected to materially affect fourth quarter sales, particularly during April and May, and have led the company to lower its full-year guidance. The company is working closely with supply chain and distribution partners in New Zealand and China to address backlogs and expedite shipments to customers.

What's next for The a2 Milk Company?

The a2 Milk Company expects FY26 performance to be impacted by timing-related and one-off supply chain issues, resulting in lower than previously forecasted revenues and margins. However, management is confident these are temporary challenges, and the group is committed to reinvesting in its brands and maintaining long-term growth.

Capital works and a broader supply chain transformation at a2 Pōkeno remain on track, with anticipation of increased production capability in the first half of FY27. The company will continue providing updates as it navigates ongoing supply, regulatory, and geopolitical uncertainties.

The a2 Milk Company share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, a2 Milk Company shares have risen 15%, slightly trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 16% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post The a2 Milk Company lowers FY26 guidance amid supply chain challenges appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are dropping:

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

The A2 Milk share price is down 3.5% to $9.32. This has been driven by a combination of broad market weakness and the infant formula company's shares going ex-dividend today. Last month, A2 Milk released its half-year results and declared a fully franked 8.3 cents per share interim dividend. Eligible shareholders can look forward to receiving this payout in a couple of weeks on 2 April.

BWP Trust (ASX: BWP)

The BWP Trust share price is down 4% to $3.64. The catalyst for this appears to have been a broker note out of UBS this morning. According to the note, the broker has downgraded the Bunning Warehouse-focused property company's shares to a neutral rating (from buy) with a reduced price target of $3.89. UBS highlights that the last time there was an energy crisis (the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict), Australian REITs sank deep into the red as interest rates rose.

Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO)

The Core Lithium share price is down 6% to 20.7 cents. Investors have been selling the lithium miner's shares following broad weakness in the mining sector and the completion of its $120 million institutional placement. Those funds were raised at a 4.5% discount of 21 cents per new share and will be used to restart the Finniss Lithium Project this year. Core Lithium's managing director, Paul Brown, said: "The strong support we have received through this equity raising is a clear endorsement of Core's restart strategy and the long-term value of the Finniss Operation. Combined with the strategic funding from Glencore, InfraVia and Nebari, this places Core in a fully funded position to execute the restart in line with the FID."

Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM)

The Newmont share price is down 5.5% to $146.51. This follows a sizeable pullback in the gold price overnight after the US Federal Reserve kept rates on hold. It appears that traders were hoping for a rate cut, which would be supportive of the safe haven asset, but rising oil prices have seemingly ruled that out. It isn't just Newmont that is falling today. The gold industry is a sea of red, with the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold index down 8% at the time of writing.

The post Why A2 Milk, BWP, Core Lithium, and Newmont shares are sinking today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 set to sink

The Australian share market looks set to fall on Thursday following a poor night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 138 points or 1.6% lower this morning. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is down 1.7%, the S&P 500 is down 1.3% and the Nasdaq is 1.4% lower.

Core Lithium shares on watch

Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) shares will be on watch on Thursday. That's because the lithium miner has raised $120 million to support the restart of the Finniss Lithium Project. The company notes that the restart repositions Finniss as a lower cost, long-life, brownfield lithium operation with a shorter path to nameplate production of 214ktpa. Unit operating costs are expected to be A$762 per tonne. This compares favourably to the current spodumene concentrate spot price of US$2,200 per tonne.

Oil prices rise

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a good session on Thursday after oil prices rose overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 1.7% to US$97.88 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 5.3% to US$108.89 a barrel. Oil prices charged higher after Iran threatened to strike oil facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Shares going ex-dividend

A number of ASX 200 shares are going ex-dividend today and could trade lower. This includes infant formula company A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M), hearing solutions company Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH), transport services provider Kelsian Group Ltd (ASX: KLS), telco Spark New Zealand Ltd (ASX: SPK), and coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL). The latter will be paying its shareholders a fully franked 12.2 cents per share dividend next month on 15 April.

Gold price sinks

ASX 200 gold shares including Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a poor session on Thursday after the gold price tumbled overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 3.1% to US$4,853.3 an ounce. Traders were selling the precious metal after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In order to receive a dividend, you must own the ASX share before its ex-dividend date.

As we've reported, some of the biggest dividend increases among ASX mining shares this season came from the gold miners.

Next week, two of them go ex-dividend.

Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) shares will pay a fully-franked interim dividend of 3 cents per share on 15 April.

This exceeds the company's commitment to pay a minimum annual dividend of 2 cents per share for FY26.

Ramelius Resources reported a 13% increase in EBITDA to $347.7 million but a 6% fall in net profit after tax (NPAT) to $160 million.

The ASX gold share goes ex-dividend on Monday.

Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM) shares will pay a maiden fully franked interim dividend of 5 cents per share.

The gold miner reported a 130% jump in underlying NPAT to $144.8 million for 1H FY26.

The ASX gold share also goes ex-dividend on Monday.

Here is a sample of the other ASX All Ords shares with ex-dividend dates next week.

ASX shares about to go ex-dividend

The post 26 ASX shares with ex-dividend dates next week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Let's take a closer look at three and see if the broker rates them as buys, holds, or sells. Here's what you need to know:

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

This infant formula company delivered a stronger than expected half-year result this week. In addition, Morgans notes that management has upgraded its FY 2026 guidance again.

While the broker is a fan of A2 Milk, it thinks its shares are fairly valued now. As a result, it has put a hold rating and $9.50 price target on them. It said:

A2M's 1H26 result was stronger than expected. The beat for us reflected stronger than expected Other Nutritionals and Liquid Milk sales. FY26 guidance was upgraded once again. NPAT growth should accelerate in FY27 given A2 Pokeno is expected to breakeven and new China label (CL) IF products will be launched. While we rate the company and its management team highly, we believe that the stock is trading on fair multiples (FY27 PE of 29.3x and PEG of 1.9x). We maintain a Hold rating with a new price target of A$9.50 (previously $9.40).

Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC)

This copper miner disappointed with its production guidance earlier this week. It notes that its production volumes were softer than expected and its costs were higher.

Nevertheless, the broker remains positive and sees plenty of value in Capstone shares. This has seen Morgans retain its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $16.60. It said:

CY26 production guidance is well below expectations with higher costs and capex reflecting lower grades at Pinto Valley and Mantos Blancos, and strike and tie-in impacts at Mantoverde driving likely near-term earnings revisions. CY26 headwinds are largely sequencing and one-off in nature, with MV-O ramp-up and higher grades positioning CSC for volume growth and lower unit costs from CY27 onward. Maintain BUY with a A$16.60ps target price (previously A$17.40).

Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO)

Finally, Morgans has downgraded this small business lender's shares to an accumulate rating (from buy) with a $2.09 price target. The broker made the move on valuation grounds following a sizeable rise in the Judo share price in response to a strong half-year result. It said:

Strong 1H26 profit growth provided evidence of improving operating leverage. Forecast NPAT changes across FY26-28F are within +3% to -4% on a mildly higher revenue and costs scenario than previously assumed. 12 month target price lifted to $2.09/sh mostly on valuation roll-forward. Rating moved down from BUY to ACCUMULATE given recent share price strength.

The post Buy, hold, sell: A2 Milk, Capstone Copper, and Judo Capital shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It is in the business of producing, marketing and selling branded dairy and infant milk formula (IMF) products in Australia, New Zealand, China, US and UK. A2M branded milk contains only A2 Protein rather than both A1 and A2 proteins which are found in regular cows' milk.

What did A2 Milk report yesterday?

The company released 1H26 Results which included revenue up 18.8% on the prior corresponding period.

Underlying EBITDA also grew strongly, up 25.9% to NZ$164.8 million, while underlying net profit after tax increased 19.6%.

A2 Milk also upgraded its guidance for FY2026. 

According to the release, management now expects revenue growth in the mid double-digit percentage range, up from low double-digits. 

Finally, it declared an interim dividend of 11.5 NZ cents per share, up 35.3% year-on-year. 

Investors gobbled up A2 Milk shares following the results, as its share price closed 6.8% higher on Monday. 

It is now up approximately 27% over the last year, despite facing significant volatility. 

What is Bell Potter's outlook?

Following the results, the team at Bell Potter released updated guidance on A2 Milk shares. 

The broker said Bell Potter said A2 Milk's 1H26 result was ahead of expectations, with revenue, EBITDA and underlying NPAT all beating forecasts. 

It also highlighted that Infant milk formula (IMF) revenue rose 14%, supported by strong English label growth, while operating cashflow improved and the balance sheet remains solid despite lower net cash following asset transactions.

Additionally, performance at the Pokeno facility was better than expected, with smaller EBITDA losses and improved FY26 loss guidance. 

Management upgraded top-line growth and margin guidance, though operating cash conversion was slightly downgraded and capex increased.

NPAT changes are +8% in FY26e, +5% in FY27e and +6% in FY28e. Changes reflect the performance in 1H26, downward movements in birth rates and changes in FX, interest and a tax rates.

Modest upside

Based on this guidance, Bell Potter retained its hold recommendation on A2 Milk shares. 

It also slightly lowered its price target to $9.55 (previously $9.70). 

From yesterday's closing price of $9.10, this indicates an upside of approximately 4.95%. 

A2M is likely to benefit from a flight to safety in the near term. Despite the headwinds of lower birth rates, A2M should be capable of delivering reasonable growth to FY28e executing on backward integration, which should be lower risk.

The post What's Bell Potter's view on A2 Milk shares after earnings results? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are rising more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are storming higher:

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

The A2 Milk share price is up 4.5% to $8.90. Investors have been buying this infant formula company's shares following the release of its half-year results. A2 Milk delivered a strong first-half performance and upgraded its guidance for FY 2026. With respect to the latter, management now expects revenue growth in the mid double-digit percentage range (from low double-digits) compared to FY 2025 continuing operations. A2 Milk's managing director and CEO, David Bortolussi, said: "Our upgraded outlook means we are now on track to achieve our $2 billion medium term sales ambition in FY26, a full year ahead of plan. This is testament to the execution of our team and the strength of the a2 brand."

Aurizon Holdings Ltd (ASX: AZJ)

The Aurizon Holdings share price is up 6% to $3.81. This has been driven by the release of the rail freight operator's half-year results this morning. Aurizon reported a 16% increase in net profit after tax to $237 million. This allowed the company to increase its 90%-franked interim dividend by 36% to 12.5 cents per share. Aurizon's managing director and CEO, Andrew Harding, said: "Today's results underscore the strength of Aurizon's two largest business units, Network and Coal and the continued growth of Bulk and Containerised Freight."

JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH)

The JB Hi-Fi share price is up almost 7% to $81.81. The catalyst for this has been the release of the retail giant's half-year results. JB Hi-Fi revealed a 7.3% increase in total sales to $6.1 billion and a 7.1% lift in net profit after tax to $305.8 million. Management advised that its focus on value supported its performance. JB Hi-Fi's CEO, Nick Wells, said: "We are pleased to report record sales and strong earnings for HY26, as we built on the momentum of the previous year. In a retail environment where customers are seeking value, our brands continue to resonate strongly and our teams continue to execute to a high standard."

Magnetic Resources NL (ASX: MAU)

The Magnetic Resources share price is up 27% to $2.03. This follows news that the gold explorer has received and accepted a takeover offer from Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD). Magnetic shareholders will receive $1.40 cash and 0.0873 new Genesis shares for every share they own. This implies a value of $2.00 per share and values Magnetic Resources at ~$639 million. Genesis executive chair, Raleigh Finlayson, said: "This transaction creates substantial value for both groups of shareholders, delivering genuine synergies while combining the right assets with the right people. Magnetic's Lady Julie Gold Project will add more than 2Moz at an attractive high grade to Genesis' Laverton inventory, further bolstering the mine life and production outlook."

The post Why A2 Milk, Aurizon, JB Hi-Fi, and Magnetic Resources shares are storming higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In morning trade, the infant formula company's shares are up 12.5% to $9.60.

Investors have been buying its shares after it delivered strong first-half growth and upgraded its full-year outlook.

A2 Milk shares jump on results day

For the six months ended 31 December, a2 Milk reported revenue of NZ$993.5 million, up 18.8% on the prior corresponding period.

Management notes that this was driven by strong performances across all segments and product categories, with growth primarily from core products supported by recent innovation.

Total infant milk formula (IMF) sales increased 13.6%, underpinned by continued brand strength and solid execution across channels. Liquid milk sales rose 18.5%, while Other Nutritionals revenue surged 42.9% (excluding a2 Pokeno ingredient sales).

Also growing strongly was its underlying EBITDA, which rose 25.9% to NZ$164.8 million, while underlying net profit after tax increased 19.6% to NZ$122.6 million. On a statutory basis, net profit after tax rose 9.4% to NZ$112.1 million.

The board declared an interim dividend of 11.5 NZ cents per share, up 35.3% year on year, representing around 74% of net profit from continuing operations.

Management commentary

A2 Milk's managing director and CEO, David Bortolussi, was pleased with the half. He said:

We continue to execute our growth strategy with a focus on maximising opportunities in China infant milk formula, adjacent categories and new markets.

Infant milk formula remains central to our growth strategy and continues to outperform the China market, delivering 13.6% year-on-year revenue growth. Our liquid milk businesses continue to perform exceptionally well in Australia and the US, with both achieving double-digit revenue growth as more consumers embrace the benefits of a2 Milk.

The Company's strong performance in the half has enabled us to upgrade our FY26 full year guidance and declare an interim dividend at the higher end of our policy range.

Outlook

As mentioned above, A2 Milk has upgraded its FY 2026 guidance following a stronger than expected first half.

The company now expects revenue growth in the mid double-digit percentage range (from low double-digit) compared to FY 2025 continuing operations. EBITDA margin is forecast to be approximately 15.5% to 16.0%, with net profit expected to be up on FY 2025 reported levels.

Bortolussi adds:

Our upgraded outlook means we are now on track to achieve our $2 billion medium term sales ambition in FY26, a full year ahead of plan. This is testament to the execution of our team and the strength of the a2 brand.

The post A2 Milk shares jump 12% on strong half-year result and guidance upgrade appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did The a2 Milk Company report?

• Revenue up 18.8% to $993.5 million
• EBITDA up 18.4% to $155.0 million; underlying EBITDA up 25.9%
• Net profit after tax (NPAT) up 9.4% to $112.1 million
• Basic EPS up 9.2% to 15.5 cents; underlying EPS up 19.4% to 16.9 cents
• Closing cash of $896.9 million with 90.8% operating cash conversion
• Interim dividend of 11.5 cents per share (unimputed, fully franked, ~74% NPAT payout)

What else do investors need to know?

The a2 Milk Company saw strong gains across key segments, with China & Other Asia revenue rising 20.3%, ANZ up 8.6%, and the USA surging 29%. Its English label infant milk formula performed especially well, jumping 20.9%, while China label sales hit a record market share.

The company recently expanded its range of kids and seniors nutritionals, and entered the paediatric supplement category, opening fresh growth avenues. Recent supply chain moves—including the completion of its a2 Pokeno acquisition and a divestment of Mataura Valley Milk—aim to support a higher-growth, lower-risk business.

What did The a2 Milk Company management say?

David Bortolussi, Managing Director and CEO, said:

Our upgraded outlook means we are now on track to achieve our $2 billion medium term sales ambition in FY26, a full year ahead of plan. This is testament to the execution of our team and the strength of the a2 brand.

What's next for The a2 Milk Company?

Looking ahead, the company has lifted its FY26 revenue growth guidance from low to mid double-digit percent, alongside expectations for improved EBITDA margins. Management is focusing on growing its infant formula, adjacent nutrition categories, and expanding in international markets.

With innovation such as new fortified UHT kids' products and China label paediatric supplements, a2 Milk aims to capture more market share and diversify. The supply chain projects and brand investments are expected to underpin higher profitability and reduce risk further.

The a2 Milk Company share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, the a2 Milk Company share price has risen 20%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has climbed 4% over the same period.

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The post The a2 Milk Company impresses with 1H26 earnings—shares in focus appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

That's because analysts have just given their verdict on three popular ASX shares.

Here's what they are saying, courtesy of The Bull, this week:

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

The team at Baker Young notes that this infant formula company's shares have come under pressure due to news that Chinese birth rates have fallen heavily.

However, it doesn't think its shares have fallen quite enough to warrant anything more than a hold rating right now. It said:

A2M shares tumbled about 12 per cent on January 19 following news that birth rates in China – its key infant formula market – fell 17 per cent in 2025 to multi-decade lows. While this suggests continued headwinds for demand, we note the company is still likely to see mid-single digit sales and earnings growth in fiscal year 2026.

A2M enjoys significant pricing power in China, boasts a strong balance sheet and has the potential to further diversify its products and end markets over the medium term.

ARB Corporation Ltd (ASX: ARB)

Another ASX 200 share that has fallen heavily is 4×4 parts manufacturer ARB. This has been driven by the release of a disappointing trading update.

Despite this decline, Baker Young notes that its shares are still trading above its valuation. As a result, it has put a sell rating on its shares. It said:

The four wheel drive accessories maker warned on January 20, 2026 that sales in key Australian and OEM (original equipment manufacturer) markets continued to decline in the first half of 2026. While exports to the United States were better than expected, it represents a smaller portion and lower margin segment of ARB's business and is unlikely to offset major headwinds largely beyond the company's control.

ARB shares were recently trading more than 10 per cent above our valuation, so we suggest investors consider selling around current levels.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES)

Over at Morgans, its analysts recognise the quality of this conglomerate. However, due to a strong re-rating of its shares last year, the broker feels they are fully valued now.

As a result, it has suggested that investors sell Wesfarmers shares this week. It said:

Wesfarmers remains a high quality industrial conglomerate, but after a strong re-rating through 2025 and solid fiscal year 2025 results, the stock, in our view, now screens as close to fully valued with limited upside. Shares were recently trading near the upper end of its recent range, supported by resilient results at Bunnings and Kmart.

However, broader group earnings are increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions across retail, industrials and commodities. While the longer term outlook remains strong, the recent valuation already captures much of the good news. With the stock priced for perfection amid slowing momentum, we believe investors may benefit from reducing exposure at these levels.

The post Buy, hold, sell: A2 Milk, ARB, and Wesfarmers shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The company's shares fell more than 13% on Monday to be changing hands for $8.30, prompting the company to place its shares in a trading halt while it formulated an explanation for the fall to the ASX.

Company sheds little light

In an announcement that came out mid-afternoon yesterday, the company said there was no unannounced information that it believed could explain the share price fall.

It did say, very briefly, that the China National Bureau of Statistics "made its annual announcement of the number of newborns in China for the preceding year''.

What the company did not explain, and which has been reported in a number of media outlets, is that China's birthrate for 2025 fell to 5.63 births per thousand people, down from 6.39, and the lowest figure on record.

Given that A2 Milk derives a large proportion of its revenue from infant formula sales in China, the demographic shift away from having children is not good news for the company.

A2 Milk shares fell a further 1.9% on Tuesday morning to be changing hands for $8.13.

Guiding to revenue growth

A2 Milk in November upgraded its FY26 revenue guidance, saying that infant milk formula, other nutritionals, and liquid milk product categories were trading stronger than expected, and it was also benefiting from positive foreign currency movements.

It said at the time that it expected revenue growth in the double digits over the half and for its EBITDA margin to be 15% to 16%.

A2 Milk will report its first-half results on February 16.

The company also announced on Tuesday that Helena He would take on the role of Chief Marketing Officer at the company.

The company said in a statement:

Helena has significant experience in the China infant milk formula and vitamins, minerals and supplements (VMS) categories, and has both chief marketing officer and management experience working with leading global nutrition and fast-moving consumer goods companies including in Australia. Helena will; join a2 Milk Company from her most recent role as general manager, VMS – Haleon China, where she spent the past five years based in Shanghai leading the VMS category.

A2 Milk said Ms He's previous experience was with one of Europe's largest dairy companies, FrieslandCampina.

A2 Milk was valued at $6.02 billion at the close of trade on Monday.

The post Chinese birthrate punches a hole in the A2 Milk share price appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.