Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares haven't exactly impressed investors over the past year.

At the time of writing, the airline's shares are down around 8% over the past 12 months, lagging the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has gained about 2%.

But one leading broker believes the next chapter could be much brighter.

Market underestimates Project Sunrise

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) has retained its overweight rating on Qantas shares and lifted its price target to $12.50, up from $10.60. That implies more than 20% upside from current levels.

The broker believes investors are underestimating the long-term value of Project Sunrise. This is Qantas' ambitious plan to launch non-stop flights from Australia's east coast to London and New York from October 2027 using specially designed Airbus A350-1000ULR aircraft.

Management has previously guided to around $400 million in additional annual earnings once the new routes mature. However, Morgan Stanley believes that's only part of the story.

More than just higher earnings

The broker argues Project Sunrise could fundamentally improve the quality of Qantas' business. The new aircraft will have around 41% premium seats, compared with roughly 10% to 20% across much of Qantas' existing international fleet.

That greater exposure to premium travellers could lift margins and make international earnings more resilient through economic cycles.

Combined with Qantas' ongoing fleet renewal and broader network strategy, Morgan Stanley believes Qantas shares deserve a higher valuation multiple than the market currently assigns.

Earnings forecasts are climbing

While the broker made only minor changes to its FY26 forecasts, it increased FY27 earnings per Qantas share estimates by 5%, helped largely by lower expected fuel costs.

Further out, Morgan Stanley lifted its international EBIT forecasts by between 3% and 31% across FY28 to FY30 and now expects international EBIT to reach $1.23 billion by FY31.

That's more than double the $596 million generated in FY25 and around 26% above broader market expectations.

Why the broker is confident

Morgan Stanley points to Qantas' existing Perth-to-London service as evidence that passengers are willing to pay a premium for non-stop long-haul travel.

Since launching in 2018, the route has consistently achieved a revenue premium of more than 20% over one-stop alternatives while maintaining load factors close to 90%.

With Sydney's premium travel market roughly three times larger than Perth's, the broker believes Project Sunrise doesn't need a dramatic shift in customer behaviour to succeed.

What could go wrong?

Qantas shares still carry risks, obviously.

Premium demand may fall short of expectations, rival airlines could introduce competing ultra-long-haul services sooner than anticipated, or aircraft delivery delays could push back the earnings benefits.

Fleet investment is also expected to weigh on free cash flow over the next few years before tapering off.

Foolish takeaway

Morgan Stanley believes Project Sunrise could transform Qantas into a stronger, more profitable airline rather than simply adding another route.

Investors in Qantas shares won't have long to wait for another update, with the airline set to release its FY26 results on 27 August, when management is expected to provide further details on its fleet renewal and flagship expansion plans.

The post Why this top expert thinks Qantas shares can fly 20% higher appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Westgold Resources exceeds guidance with record gold production in FY26
• Mercury NZ trading margin jumps 33% as renewables drive Q4 result
• Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today
• Why I'd buy Qantas, Woolworths, and ResMed shares

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have created significant wealth for long-term investors. Over the past decade, the mining giant's share price has surged almost 235%, comfortably outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which gained around 60% over the same period.

But could Australia's largest mining company repeat that performance and triple in value again by 2036? While predicting a decade of share price returns is impossible, BHP has several powerful long-term trends working in its favour.

Here are three reasons the mining giant could potentially deliver another market-beating run.

Demand for copper could drive the next growth phase

BHP has historically been known as a major iron ore producer, with its Western Australian operations generating billions of dollars in profits during periods of strong steel demand.

However, the future growth story of BHP shares is increasingly linked to copper. Copper is a critical commodity for electrification, renewable energy, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and global power networks. As economies transition towards lower-carbon energy systems, demand for copper is expected to rise significantly.

The mining giant has been positioning itself for this trend, including its acquisition of OZ Minerals in 2023, which strengthened its exposure to copper and other future-facing commodities.

If copper prices remain elevated and BHP successfully expands production, the commodity could become a major earnings driver over the next decade.

The asset base could keep generating cash

One of BHP's biggest advantages is the quality and scale of its global operations. The company owns some of the world's largest and lowest-cost mining assets, including its Western Australian iron ore operations, Olympic Dam copper-gold project, and Jansen potash development in Canada.

Low-cost producers typically have a major advantage through commodity cycles because they can remain profitable when weaker competitors struggle.

That financial strength has allowed BHP shares to consistently return billions of dollars to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.

If commodity demand remains healthy, BHP's ability to generate strong free cash flow could continue supporting shareholder returns well into the future.

Long-term resource demand could provide a tailwind

The world is becoming increasingly resource-intensive. Population growth, urbanisation, infrastructure investment, artificial intelligence, and energy security are all expected to support demand for commodities.

Even as the global economy changes, the need for raw materials remains essential. Data centres require enormous amounts of electricity and copper wiring, while renewable energy projects require significant quantities of metals. BHP's scale means it is positioned to benefit from these long-term structural trends.

Of course, there are risks. Commodity prices are cyclical, China remains a major source of demand uncertainty, and large mining projects require significant capital investment.

A threefold return over 10 years would also require strong execution from management and favourable commodity conditions.

However, BHP has already demonstrated its ability to create substantial shareholder wealth over long periods. If copper demand accelerates, its growth projects deliver, and commodity markets remain supportive, another decade of strong returns may not be out of the question.

The post BHP shares have tripled in the past 10 years. Could history repeat itself over the next decade? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why this top expert thinks Qantas shares can fly 20% higher
• Westgold Resources exceeds guidance with record gold production in FY26
• Mercury NZ trading margin jumps 33% as renewables drive Q4 result
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) shares climbed to a fresh five-year high of $2.11 during Tuesday afternoon trade, extending one of the strongest rallies on the ASX this year.

The financial services company's shares have soared 18% over the past five trading days following last week's upbeat earnings update, taking their gain over the past 12 months to around 32%.

So, after a remarkable turnaround, should investors buy, hold, or sell?

A dramatic reversal

The latest rally marks a stunning recovery from mid-March, when AMP shares slumped to a one-year low of $1.14. Since then, the stock has surged roughly 80%.

It wasn't always smooth sailing. AMP shares plunged about 26% in February after the company delivered a disappointing FY25 result that fell well short of market expectations.

Broader concerns over geopolitical tensions and Australia's inflation outlook also weighed on financial stocks during the first half of the year.

Sentiment began to improve in April. AMP's first-quarter update revealed Platforms' net cash flows had surged 45%, while Superannuation & Investments delivered improved net cash outflows. Investors took the figures as a sign that the company's turnaround strategy was gaining traction.

That optimism accelerated last week. AMP told the market it expects first-half underlying net profit of between $170 million and $180 million, well above the $131 million reported a year earlier. The stronger earnings outlook reinforced confidence that operational improvements are translating into better financial performance.

AMP has also benefited from growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue lowering interest rates, a backdrop that generally supports sentiment towards financial companies.

What do the experts think?

Broker sentiment remains broadly positive, although much of the recent optimism now appears reflected in the share price.

According to TradingView data, six of the ten analysts covering AMP have either a buy or strong buy recommendation. Three rate the shares as a hold, while one recommends selling.

However, the average price target now sits at $2.02 per AMP share, implying the stock is trading slightly above consensus fair value after its recent rally.

The most optimistic analyst sees AMP reaching $2.19 over the next 12 months, suggesting a further gain of around 5%.

Foolish Takeaway

AMP's turnaround story has gathered considerable momentum over recent months.

Improving business flows, stronger profit expectations, and a more supportive interest rate outlook have all helped restore investor confidence after a difficult few years.

That said, after an 80% rally since March and fresh five-year highs, much of the good news may already be priced into AMP shares.

With broker price targets sitting close to current trading levels, existing shareholders may be inclined to hold, while prospective investors may want to wait for either another improvement in earnings or a more attractive entry point.

The post AMP shares have surged 80% since March. What's next? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 2 ASX shares highly recommended to buy: Experts
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• AMP shares rebound 64%: Buy, sell or hold?
• How much do I need in my superannuation to earn an annual $60,000 passive income?

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The biggest dividend yields on the ASX can be tempting. More income today sounds great, but a successful ASX dividend portfolio isn't built by chasing the highest payout.

The real goal is to own high-quality businesses that can keep paying – and ideally growing – their dividends through economic booms, recessions, and everything in between.

Start with reliable cash flow

If you want dividends that last, begin with companies that generate consistent earnings.

Take Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW). Grocery shopping isn't glamorous, but it's incredibly resilient. Whether the economy is booming or slowing, Australians still need food, household essentials, and everyday necessities.

Sure, Woolworths faces competition and rising costs, but its defensive business model has helped it deliver dependable cash flow for decades. That's exactly what income investors want for their ASX dividend portfolio.

Add essential services

Next, look for businesses people simply can't live without. Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) fits that description. Australians rely on its mobile and broadband networks every day for work, streaming, banking, shopping, and staying connected.

While Telstra continues investing heavily in its network and faces competitive pressure, telecommunications remain an essential service, supporting relatively stable earnings and dividends.

Diversify your income

Here's where many dividend investors go wrong. They overload their ASX dividend portfolio with banks or miners.

Instead, spread your income across different industries.

APA Group (ASX: APA) owns and operates thousands of kilometres of gas pipelines and energy infrastructure across Australia. These long-life assets generate relatively predictable cash flows through long-term contracts, making APA a popular choice for income investors.

Property can also deserve a place. HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (ASX: HDN) owns neighbourhood shopping centres anchored by supermarkets and other essential retailers. Because many tenants sign long-term leases, rental income tends to be relatively stable.

Investors should still keep an eye on interest rates, debt levels, and tenant quality, but selective exposure to property can add another valuable income stream.

Don't forget dividend growth

A high dividend today doesn't guarantee a high dividend tomorrow. The best ASX dividend portfolios also include companies capable of growing their earnings over time.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) has rewarded shareholders handsomely over the years through both capital growth and dividends. While mining profits can fluctuate with commodity prices, BHP's world-class assets and strong balance sheet position it well over the long term.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) is another standout. Its dividend yield isn't usually among the highest on the ASX, but that's missing the point.

The retail and industrial giant has consistently reinvested capital, improved its businesses, and allocated money to attractive growth opportunities. Over time, that has translated into steadily rising earnings and a growing dividend.

Foolish takeaway

Building a successful ASX dividend portfolio isn't about chasing the biggest yield.

It's about owning high-quality businesses across different sectors that generate reliable cash flow today while still having room to grow tomorrow. That combination can help investors build an income stream that not only lasts for decades but has the potential to keep growing alongside it.

The post How to build an ASX dividend portfolio that keeps paying you for decades appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How much do I need in superannuation to receive $5000 per month in passive income?
• 2 ASX blue-chip shares offering big dividend yields
• How many Wesfarmers shares do I need to buy for $10,000 of passive income?
• Why I'd buy Qantas, Woolworths, and ResMed shares
• BHP shares have tripled in the past 10 years. Could history repeat itself over the next decade?

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group and Telstra Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

These pummeled ASX healthcare shares have both endured brutal share price declines over the past year.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares started the week down 0.6% to $122.61. Despite rebounding 13% over the past month, they're still down around 51% over the past 12 months. Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH) shares slipped 0.4% on Monday to $119.00, leaving them up 4% over the past month but down an even steeper 61% over the past year.

So, are these former market darlings now genuine buying opportunities or value traps?

CSL: Waiting for earnings to recover

For decades, this $59 billion ASX healthcare share earned its reputation as one of the ASX's highest-quality companies, driven by global leadership in plasma therapies and a long history of consistent earnings growth.

That reputation has taken a hit. A series of earnings downgrades, leadership changes, and around US$5 billion of non-cash impairments tied largely to the CSL Vifor acquisition have weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

The latest disappointment came in May, when management guided FY26 revenue of approximately US$15.2 billion and NPAT of around US$3.1 billion, both below market expectations. The company also flagged another US$5 billion of non-cash impairments across FY26 and FY27.

Despite that, analysts aren't entirely bearish. According to TradingView data, 10 of the 18 brokers covering CSL now rate the stock as a hold, while the remaining eight have buy or strong buy recommendations. The average price target sits at $138.88, implying around 13% upside.

UBS remains among the bulls with a $158 target price, arguing much of the bad news surrounding Vifor is already reflected in the share price. The most optimistic analysts see gains of around 60% over the next year.

Cochlear: A temporary stumble?

April marked one of the toughest periods in Cochlear's history.

The hearing implant leader shocked investors after reporting weaker-than-expected demand across developed markets and disruption to shipments caused by conflict in the Middle East.

Management of the ASX healthcare share slashed FY26 underlying profit guidance from $435 million-$460 million to just $290 million-$330 million, triggering a one-day share price collapse of more than 40%.

Yet the company's competitive position remains largely intact. Cochlear still controls roughly half the global cochlear implant market, underpinned by decades of product innovation, clinical expertise, and strong relationships with surgeons worldwide.

Its long-term growth opportunity also remains compelling. More than six million people in developed markets are estimated to be eligible for cochlear implants, but only around 3% have received one.

Broker sentiment is cautious. Hold remains the most common TradingView recommendation, with an average target price of $127.14, implying roughly 7% upside.

However, six analysts still rate the shares as a buy or strong buy, with the highest target suggesting upside of around 43%. Two analysts recommend selling, with the lowest target price implying almost 16% downside.

Foolish takeaway

Both ASX healthcare shares remain global leaders with durable competitive advantages, but they are also working through company-specific challenges that have dented investor confidence.

For long-term investors, the sharp share price falls may present an opportunity. However, neither company has yet fully restored market confidence, meaning patience may be required before either regains its former market-leading status.

The post Down 50%+: Are these ASX healthcare shares finally worth buying? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How many Cochlear shares do I need to buy for $10,000 of passive income?
• Top 3 ASX healthcare stocks to watch
• CSL vs Telstra shares, which should I buy?
• I'd listen to Warren Buffett and buy cheap ASX shares
• Could CSL shares double from here? Here's what the experts think

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Cochlear. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL and Cochlear. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: CUV) climbed around 5% to $10.40 on Monday after the ASX biotech stock confirmed its shares will begin trading on the Nasdaq stock exchange in the US.

The Nasdaq is the world's second-largest stock exchange after the New York Stock Exchange. It is home to many of the world's leading technology and healthcare companies, including Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT).

Clinuvel confirms Nasdaq debut

In an ASX announcement today, the ASX biotech stock said its American Depositary Shares (ADS) are expected to commence trading on the Nasdaq later on Monday (New York time) under the ticker CUVL.

The milestone follows the US Securities and Exchange Commission declaring the company's Form 20-F registration statement effective on 17 July, along with Nasdaq approving the listing.

As part of the move, Clinuvel's existing over-the-counter American Depositary Receipt (ADR) program will be upgraded from a Level I ADR to a Level II ADS listed on Nasdaq. Each ADS will represent one ordinary Clinuvel share listed on the ASX.

Importantly, the company is not raising capital or issuing new shares as part of the listing. This means the move is designed to improve market access rather than fund the business.

Existing holders of Clinuvel's US-traded ADRs also won't need to take any action. Their holdings will automatically transition to the new Nasdaq-listed security.

Why does a Nasdaq listing matter?

A Nasdaq listing can significantly increase a company's visibility among US investors and improve trading liquidity. It also provides access to specialist healthcare and biotechnology investors who are often more familiar with the sector and can broaden the company's shareholder base.

The Nasdaq Global Select Market, where the ASX biotech stock will trade, also offers greater analytical coverage and inclusion in Nasdaq's market ecosystem. This potentially increases awareness among institutional investors.

That said, investors shouldn't expect the listing alone to transform the company's fortunes overnight. Greater visibility could support future growth opportunities and provide access to deeper capital markets if required. However, Clinuvel's long-term success will ultimately depend on executing its commercial strategy.

What did management say?

Clinuvel Chairman Jeffrey Rosenfeld said:

The upgrade of CUVL to the Nasdaq marks an important step for Clinuvel's visibility in U.S. capital markets, as well as reflecting a broader shift of our business towards North America. In the context of all our activities, the gradual shift to the U.S. makes much sense as the Company is maturing.

Foolish Takeaway

Clinuvel already has a commercialised product in SCENESSE®. It is approved in multiple markets, including the United States and Europe.

The Nasdaq listing has the potential to raise the international profile of the ASX biotech stock. It also expands its access to one of the world's deepest pools of healthcare capital.

However, the real driver of long-term shareholder returns will remain business execution.

Despite today's rally, Clinuvel shares are still down around 17% so far this year. This suggests investors are waiting for stronger evidence that the company's next phase of growth is taking shape.

The post This ASX biotech stock just scored a Nasdaq listing. Shares are jumping appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• This ASX biotech stock is tipped to double or even triple in value

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Microsoft and Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Microsoft and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) shares climbed as much as 2.5% at Monday's open before easing to trade around 1.7% higher at $3.97 in early afternoon trade.

The mining giant has been a standout performer over the past year, with its shares gaining 31%, comfortably outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has risen just 1% over the same period.

So, what impressed investors?

South32 unveils strong operating update

South32 released its June quarter production report alongside details of a transformational portfolio reshaping.

The headline announcement for South32 shares was the sale of its aluminium value chain business, excluding Mozal Aluminium, to Alcoa Corporation (ASX: AAI) in a deal worth up to US$5.6 billion. The transaction also transfers around US$1.2 billion of rehabilitation provisions and is expected to reshape South32 into a more focused base metals producer.

Operationally, the company also delivered several positive surprises. Copper production at Sierra Gorda exceeded FY26 guidance by 2% and generated record annual distributions of US$401 million. Manganese production also beat expectations, finishing 1% above guidance in Australia and 4% ahead in South Africa.

Group sales volumes rose 15% during the June quarter, unlocking around US$200 million of working capital and supporting stronger cash generation.

South32 also returned US$327 million to shareholders during FY26 through dividends and on-market share buybacks, while continuing to invest in future growth, spending approximately US$710 million to develop its Hermosa zinc-lead-silver project in Arizona.

What management said

The update also marked the company's first production report under new CEO Matt Daley, who officially succeeded Graham Kerr on 1 July. Daley said:

We continued to deliver strong operating results, exceeding Group production guidance for FY26. We increased quarterly sales volumes by 15%, capturing the benefit of strong market conditions across many of our commodities, and releasing working capital which added to the Group's cash generation. On 1 July, we announced a step change for South32, with the sale of our aluminium value chain business to Alcoa. Once complete, this sale will unlock significant value for shareholders and reposition South32 as a leading upstream base metals focused company. Our portfolio will be built around high-margin, long-life assets in favourable jurisdictions, with approximately 85% of pro-forma earnings from base and precious metals and approximately 55% production growth from approved projects.

What else should investors know?

Management highlighted continued strong production from Cannington, Sierra Gorda, and its manganese operations. Development at Hermosa remains on schedule, with key US permitting milestones achieved.

Despite higher freight and raw material costs linked to geopolitical disruptions, South32 said it maintained disciplined cost control across the business.

Looking ahead, the company plans to optimise its existing operations, progress open-pit development at Cannington, and manage water impacts at its Australian manganese business. Updated FY27 production guidance for Australia Manganese is expected with its upcoming full-year results on 27 August.

Daley added:

Looking ahead, our focus on operational excellence, a strong balance sheet and transformational growth in base metals leaves us well positioned to deliver value for shareholders.

The post Why South32 shares edge higher on strong results and landmark deal appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Buying South32 shares? Here's the dividend yield you'll get right now
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• South32 reveals FY26 operating results
• Alcoa smashes Q2 revenue record, boosts portfolio with South32 acquisition

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in South32. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Vanguard ETFs remain among the most popular investment choices for Australians looking to build long-term wealth.

ASX ETFs have surged in popularity over the past decade, offering investors a low-cost, diversified way to invest without having to pick individual shares.

Few providers have benefited more from that trend than the Vanguard Group. Its focus on low fees, broad diversification, and a simple buy-and-hold investing philosophy has made its ETFs favourites among first-time investors and retirees alike.

Here's how two of the fund manager's biggest ASX-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) – the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS) and the Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF (ASX: VGS) – are performing so far this year.

Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF

The Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF aims to track the performance of the S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO), giving investors exposure to around 300 of Australia's largest listed companies.

The ETF is heavily weighted towards Australia's biggest sectors, with Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) each accounting for more than 10% of the portfolio. Other major holdings include Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), and Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS).

That concentration in banks and miners can be both a strength and a weakness. Investors benefit from exposure to some of Australia's highest-quality companies and attractive dividend yields, but the portfolio is less diversified across sectors than many global funds.

VAS charges a low management fee of 0.07% per annum, helping investors keep more of their returns over the long term.

At the time of writing, the ETF has returned around 2% over the past year and is down approximately 1.6% over the past month, trading at $108.92. Over the past five years, it has delivered a total return of around 16%.

Income remains one of VAS' biggest attractions. Investors recently received a distribution of 48.99 cents per unit, reinforcing its appeal for those seeking regular passive income.

Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF

For investors wanting to diversify beyond Australia, the Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF offers exposure to more than 1,300 large and mid-cap companies across developed markets outside Australia.

Its largest holdings include technology giants Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA), both of which have benefited from the rapid growth of artificial intelligence.

Unlike VAS, VGS has relatively little exposure to Australian banks and resources companies. Instead, it provides investors with access to many of the world's leading technology, healthcare, consumer, and industrial businesses. The ETF also charges a competitive management fee of 0.18% per annum.

Performance has been particularly strong. VGS has gained around 11% over the past year and has significantly outperformed VAS over the past five years, delivering a return of approximately 62%.

Investors also recently received a distribution of 80.11 cents per unit.

For Australians seeking greater global diversification and exposure to many of the world's highest-quality companies, VGS continues to be a compelling long-term core holding.

The post VAS vs VGS: Which Vanguard ETF is winning so far this year? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Getting started with ASX ETFs? These 3 might be worth a look
• How I would turn $200,000 into an ASX retirement income portfolio
• 5 ASX ETFs for beginner investors in July
• Best money-saving techniques to build long-term wealth
• 3 ASX ETFs that make long-term investing easy

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group, Macquarie Group, Microsoft, Nvidia, Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF, and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares finished last week 1% higher at $123.32, extending their recent rebound. The biotech giant's shares have climbed 16% over the past month and are now up around 34% since their early June lows.

Even so, it's important to keep that rally in perspective. CSL shares remain down about 29% in 2026 and have lost roughly half their value over the past 12 months.

So, after one of the biggest falls in the company's history, could CSL shares double from here and reclaim their former highs?

Changed narrative

For decades, CSL built a reputation as one of the ASX's highest-quality companies, delivering consistent earnings growth through its leadership in plasma-derived therapies and global healthcare operations.

That reputation took a major hit over the past year.

A string of earnings downgrades, leadership changes, and around US$5 billion in non-cash impairments, largely tied to the CSL Vifor acquisition, have weighed heavily on investor confidence.

Impairments, downward guidance

For almost two years, the ASX biotech stock has been locked in a persistent downtrend. This has been punctuated by sharp 10% to 15% rallies before another disappointing update pushed shares to fresh multi-year lows.

The latest setback came in May, when management guided to FY26 revenue of around US$15.2 billion, about 4% below consensus forecasts, and NPAT of roughly US$3.1 billion, around 7% below expectations. The company also flagged another US$5 billion of non-cash impairments across FY26 and FY27.

Since then, little has changed fundamentally. While Tavneos faces potential withdrawal in the US and Europe, analysts note the product contributes only around 1% of group revenue.

The team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) believes expectations have now been reset to a relatively low level. Analysts expect modest earnings growth through FY28 and argue that even small earnings beats could support the share price.

What do the experts think?

Broker sentiment has become more cautious than it was a year ago.

According to TradingView data, 10 of 18 analysts now rate CSL shares as a hold. The remaining eight have buy or strong buy recommendations. The average price target sits at $138.88, implying around 13% upside from current levels.

Some analysts remain far more optimistic. UBS retained its buy rating at the start of this month with a $158 price target. The broker argues that much of the bad news surrounding Vifor has already been priced into the shares.

Morgans is also positive, maintaining a buy recommendation and a $147.59 target price. However, it expects a recovery in investor confidence to take time as the market waits for clearer evidence that earnings have stabilised.

A handful of analysts reportedly see the shares reaching as high as $197.85 over the next year. That represents potential gains of about 60%.

That would be an impressive recovery, but still well short of doubling from current levels. Based on current broker forecasts, a return to CSL's record highs appears more realistic over several years than within the next 12 months.

The post Could CSL shares double from here? Here's what the experts think appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• This UK bank plans to disrupt CBA, ANZ, NAB and Westpac
• Top 3 ASX healthcare stocks to watch
• These ASX shares could generate $12,000 per year in passive income
• CSL vs Telstra shares, which should I buy?
• I'd listen to Warren Buffett and buy cheap ASX shares

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Retirement isn't won on your last day at work. It's won in the five years before it.

That final stretch is where small decisions can snowball into six-figure differences in your retirement savings. Get it right, and you'll likely enter retirement with confidence. Get it wrong, and you could spend decades wishing you'd planned a little better.

Here's why those last five years matter so much.

Your super is usually at its biggest

For most Australians, their super balance is higher than it's ever been during the final years before retirement. That's important because investment returns work in percentages.

A 10% return on a $100,000 balance earns $10,000. The same 10% return on a $700,000 balance adds $70,000.

In other words, your super is finally big enough for compounding to do some serious heavy lifting. Every extra contribution and every positive year in the market can have an outsized impact on your retirement balance.

You're still adding to the pile

There's another powerful force working in your favour. If you're still employed, your employer continues making compulsory super contributions.

Those contributions, combined with investment earnings, mean your nest egg for retirement is still growing.

The moment you retire, that process flips. Employer contributions stop. Instead of adding money, you begin withdrawing it to fund your lifestyle.

Many Australians underestimate just how significant that transition is.

Mistakes become far more expensive

Early in your career, poor investment decisions can often be recovered over decades.

Five years before retirement? Not so much. Taking excessive risks in search of higher returns could leave you exposed to a major market downturn just before you stop working.

On the other hand, becoming too conservative too early could mean missing years of valuable growth. Finding the right balance between protecting your wealth and continuing to grow it becomes increasingly important.

This is when retirement planning becomes real

It's also time to move beyond simply checking your super balance.

Ask yourself some practical questions. How much income will you actually need for retirement? Will you receive a full or part Age Pension? Should you pay off debt before retiring?

Would a transition-to-retirement strategy help you reduce your working hours while keeping super contributions flowing?

These aren't decisions you want to leave until your farewell morning tea.

Don't overlook the emotional side

Many people spend years planning their finances but almost no time planning what retirement will actually look like.

Leaving full-time work is one of life's biggest transitions. Some people thrive. Others quickly discover they miss the routine, purpose, and social connection that work provided.

That's why many Australians are choosing a gradual retirement instead of stopping overnight. Working part-time for a few years can ease the financial pressure while making the lifestyle adjustment much smoother.

Foolish takeaway

The final five years before retirement aren't simply a countdown. They're an opportunity.

It's your last chance to boost your super through employer contributions, salary sacrifice, or voluntary contributions while giving compounding one final opportunity to work its magic.

Retirement isn't determined by one spectacular investment or one lucky year in the market.

More often than not, it's the decisions you make in those final five years that determine whether you spend retirement worrying about money, or enjoying the freedom you've spent decades building toward.

The post Why the 5 years before retirement could make or break your future appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 3 reasons why this ASX healthcare share price is a buy
• I think this Buffett-inspired ASX ETF is in the buy zone right now
• Could US lawmakers drive a rebound in the beaten-down Bitcoin price?
• This UK bank plans to disrupt CBA, ANZ, NAB and Westpac

For plenty of Australians, turning 60 feels like reaching the finish line and starting retirement.

It's the age when most people can finally access their superannuation. After decades of work, the money is finally yours.

So why not hand in the resignation letter? Because there's one detail that's easy to miss: the Age Pension generally doesn't begin until age 67. That means if you retire at 60, you're responsible for funding every single day of the next seven years yourself.

That's where the maths starts getting interesting.

The seven-year gap

Spend enough time on retirement forums and you'll quickly find plenty of doom and gloom. "Retirement is dead." "We'll all work forever." "Nobody can afford to stop."

It's easy to get caught up in that negativity.

According to the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA), a single person needs around $630,000 in super to enjoy a comfortable retirement.

But there's an important catch. That figure assumes retirement begins at around Age Pension age.

Retiring at 60 changes the equation dramatically.

Your super suddenly changes direction

Here's what many people overlook.

The day you stop working isn't just the day your salary disappears. It's also the day your employer stops making super contributions.

Until then, your super has been doing two jobs at once. Investment returns are compounding, while your employer keeps adding another 12% of your salary into the account.

Once you retire, that conveyor belt switches off. Instead of filling the bucket, you start emptying it.

ASFA estimates a single retiree needs around $51,000 a year for a comfortable lifestyle.

If you begin retirement with $630,000, that's more than 8% of your balance withdrawn in the very first year. Repeat that for seven years and your nest egg can look very different by age 67.

Those are also some of the most valuable years for compound returns. Once that capital has been spent, you can't simply replace it.

Waiting until 67 changes everything

Now flip the scenario. Instead of retiring at 60, you keep working until 67. Your super isn't shrinking. It's still receiving employer contributions, while investment returns continue compounding.

Using a simple illustration, a $600,000 super balance earning an average annual return of 6% — alongside ongoing employer contributions — could potentially grow to around $950,000 over seven years. Actual outcomes will vary depending on investment returns, contributions, fees, and market conditions.

That's an enormous difference. One person reaches 67 with a much smaller balance after drawing down their savings. The other arrives at retirement with a significantly larger portfolio.

That's the real cost of retiring seven years early.

There is a middle ground

Fortunately, retirement doesn't have to be all or nothing. A Transition to Retirement Pension (TTR) allows eligible Australians to access part of their super while continuing to work.

That could mean dropping back to three days a week instead of walking away altogether. Your employer is still making super contributions, while your investments continue working in the background.

There's one catch, though. Many people assume a TTR automatically receives tax-free treatment. It doesn't. Earnings within a TTR pension are generally taxed at up to 15%. The tax-free treatment usually begins only once you've fully retired or reached age 65.

The bottom line

Spreadsheets can tell you how much money you might have. They can't tell you how much seven extra years in a job you dislike will cost your health or happiness.

For some Australians, retiring at 60 will be entirely achievable. For others, working a little longer could dramatically improve their financial security.

Neither choice is automatically right or wrong.

The important part is having a plan. Retirement isn't something to drift into. The earlier you understand the trade-offs, the more choices you'll have when the time finally comes to stop working.

The post Retirement at 60 or 67: The hidden cost most Australians never calculate appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 3 reasons why this ASX healthcare share price is a buy
• I think this Buffett-inspired ASX ETF is in the buy zone right now
• Could US lawmakers drive a rebound in the beaten-down Bitcoin price?
• This UK bank plans to disrupt CBA, ANZ, NAB and Westpac

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) shares were among the standout performers on Wednesday.

The buy now, pay later (BNPL) provider surged 8.5% to $3.20, comfortably outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which rose just 0.4%.

The rally extends Zip's gain over the past month to 19%. While the shares remain down about 2% year to date, they're now up roughly 13% over the past 12 months.

So, what's suddenly got investors excited?

America is the prize

A big part of the optimism centres on Zip's growing US business.

The company has spent several years investing heavily in expanding both its customer base and product offering across America, which has become its largest market.

That's a market investors simply can't ignore. Compared with Australia, the US buy now, pay later market remains relatively under-penetrated, giving Zip a sizeable runway for future growth as more consumers and merchants embrace flexible payment options.

Management of Zip shares has also been busy strengthening its distribution network. Late last year, Zip expanded its partnership with Stripe, allowing merchants using the payments platform to seamlessly offer Zip's services at checkout.

It's a meaningful opportunity. Stripe serves millions of businesses globally, giving Zip access to a huge pool of potential merchants without having to knock on every door individually.

UBS believes that Zip shares could have a strong finish to FY 2026, with robust transaction growth in the key US market. According to a recent note, the broker has been pleased to see that US consumer spending has been resilient despite global uncertainty.

The numbers are finally backing the story

For years, investors questioned whether BNPL companies could generate sustainable profits.

Zip is starting to answer that question. Over the past several quarters, management has tightened lending standards, controlled costs, and shifted its focus firmly towards profitability.

Those efforts are paying off. In its third-quarter FY26 update, Zip upgraded its group cash EBITDA guidance to at least $260 million, up from previous guidance of around $248.6 million.

That's exactly the type of earnings upgrade investors in Zip shares like to see. It suggests the company is proving it can grow while also delivering stronger profits. A combination that was largely absent during the sector's boom years.

Not without risks

The opportunity is attractive, but investors shouldn't ignore the risks of Zip shares.

Competition remains fierce. Zip is battling global heavyweights including Klarna, PayPal, Block's Afterpay business, traditional banks, and credit card providers. Any increase in competitive pressure could squeeze margins or slow customer growth.

Like many growth companies, Zip is also highly sensitive to interest rates, consumer spending, employment conditions, and overall market sentiment.

That means shareholders should probably expect plenty of volatility along the way.

What do the experts think?

Broker sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive. Analysts at UBS have retained their buy rating on Zip shares with an improved price target of $4.10, which points to a further 28% upside.

Meanwhile, United Capital Partners is even more bullish, with a $4.85 price target, around 52% above today's share price.

According to TradingView data, 11 of the 12 analysts covering Zip have either a buy or strong buy recommendation. The average price target sits at $4.17, implying potential upside of around 30% from current levels.

The most optimistic analyst believes Zip shares could climb to $5.59, representing upside of roughly 75%.

The post Could US expansion send Zip shares soaring further? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why this top expert thinks Qantas shares can fly 20% higher
• Westgold Resources exceeds guidance with record gold production in FY26
• Mercury NZ trading margin jumps 33% as renewables drive Q4 result
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

BHP Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are enjoying a strong session on Wednesday.

In early afternoon trade, BHP shares are up 4% to $61.12. They're comfortably outperforming the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which is up 0.4%.

The gains continue a recent rebound for the mining heavyweight. BHP shares have climbed around 6% over the past five trading days, though they remain down roughly 6% over the past month.

Zooming out, however, the picture looks much brighter. BHP shares have rallied about 34% since the start of the year and are up approximately 54% over the past 12 months. By comparison, the ASX 200 has gained around 3% over the same period.

So, what's driving BHP's sharp share price jump today?

A sector-wide rally lifts BHP

Unlike some large moves in the past, Wednesday's rally doesn't appear to be linked to a major company announcement.

Instead, BHP is benefiting from renewed investor appetite for mining stocks as sentiment towards the resources sector improves. The S&P/ASX 200 Resources Index (ASX: XJR) was up 1.6% around midday.

After a period of weakness driven by concerns over global growth, commodity demand, and geopolitical uncertainty, investors have rotated back into diversified miners. BHP shares have emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries.

Copper remains the key long-term story

While iron ore remains BHP's largest earnings driver, investors are increasingly valuing the company as a global copper producer.

The miner has spent several years repositioning its portfolio towards commodities expected to benefit from long-term electrification trends, including copper through assets such as Escondida, Olympic Dam, and the recently acquired OZ Minerals business.

That shift means BHP is often viewed as one of the ASX's premier large-cap copper exposures.

Interestingly, however, today's rally wasn't sparked by a surge in copper prices. Benchmark copper prices were little changed overnight, slipping around 0.2%, and remain modestly lower than they were a month ago.

Even so, prices are still well above year-ago levels. This reflects a constructive long-term outlook supported by growing demand from artificial intelligence infrastructure, renewable energy projects, and electric vehicles.

Looking ahead

With no major company news driving Wednesday's gains, the rally appears to reflect improving sentiment towards the mining sector rather than a fundamental change in BHP's outlook.

Investors will now turn their attention to BHP's upcoming quarterly operational update next month. This should provide fresh insight into production across its iron ore and copper operations.

In the meantime, movements in copper and iron ore prices, as well as any signs of further economic stimulus from China, are likely to remain the biggest drivers of BHP shares.

For long-term investors, today's rally also highlights an important shift in the investment case.

BHP remains the world's largest-listed iron ore miner. But its growing exposure to copper means the company's fortunes are becoming increasingly tied to a metal many analysts expect will play a central role in the global energy transition.

The post Why are BHP shares surging 4% today despite a flat copper price? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• BHP shares have tripled in the past 10 years. Could history repeat itself over the next decade?
• Is the BHP share price a buy for its 5% dividend yield?
• BHP shares soared 62% in FY26. Can they keep climbing?
• Why I think BHP is the best ASX mining share
• How to build an ASX dividend portfolio that keeps paying you for decades

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH) shares showed further signs of stabilising on Tuesday.

The hearing implant giant climbed 1.6% to $123.20, extending its gain over the past month to 16%.

That's an impressive rebound after one of the ASX's most dramatic share price collapses this year.

But let's keep things in perspective. Despite the recent recovery, Cochlear shares are still down around 53% in 2026 and have shed almost 59% over the past 12 months.

So, is this the start of a genuine comeback, or merely a relief rally?

What went wrong?

April was one of the darkest months in Cochlear's history.

The healthcare company shocked investors when it revealed demand for hearing implants across developed markets had weakened more than expected. At the same time, conflict in the Middle East disrupted shipments and led to order cancellations.

Management responded by dramatically lowering its profit expectations. Instead of forecasting underlying net profit of between $435 million and $460 million for FY26, Cochlear slashed guidance to just $290 million to $330 million.

Investors didn't hang around to hear the rest. Cochlear shares plunged more than 40% in a single session as the market questioned whether one of the ASX's most reliable growth stories had hit a wall.

Since then, investors have been asking one question: Is this a temporary stumble or something more serious?

Why the investment case remains intact

Despite the earnings shock, Cochlear's competitive position hasn't fundamentally changed.

The company still commands roughly half of the global cochlear implant market, making it the clear industry leader. That position has been built through decades of product innovation, clinical research, and strong relationships with hospitals and surgeons around the world.

Those competitive advantages are exceptionally difficult for new entrants to replicate.

The long-term growth opportunity for Cochlear shares also remains compelling.

More than six million people across developed markets are estimated to be eligible for cochlear implants, yet only around 3% have received one. That leaves a substantial untapped market as diagnosis rates improve, awareness grows, and technology continues to advance.

In other words, the company's long-term runway may be just as attractive today as it was before April's profit warning.

What do the experts think?

Broker sentiment suggests caution rather than outright pessimism.

According to TradingView data, hold remains the dominant recommendation among analysts.

The average 12-month price target is $127.64, implying only about 4% upside from current levels. That suggests many brokers believe the recent rebound of Cochlear shares has already captured much of the near-term recovery.

Not everyone agrees. Six of the 18 analysts covering Cochlear have either a buy or strong buy recommendation, with the most optimistic forecasting the shares could rise another 38% over the next year.

On the other hand, two analysts recommend selling. The lowest target price stands at $100, implying a downside of roughly 19%.

The post Cochlear shares have bounced 16%. Should you buy, hold, or sell now? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How many Cochlear shares do I need to buy for $10,000 of passive income?
• I'd listen to Warren Buffett and buy cheap ASX shares
• Down 50%+: Are these ASX healthcare shares finally worth buying?
• Here's why I'd buy and hold CSL and Cochlear shares for 10 years
• 10 fantastic ASX shares to buy for FY27

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Cochlear. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Cochlear. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares were under pressure again on Tuesday afternoon, falling 1% to $4.43.

That extends what has been a painful month for shareholders, with the ASX lithium stock down 28% over the past four weeks.

But don't let that fool you. Zoom out and the picture looks far brighter. PLS shares remain up around 6% year to date and have rocketed roughly 190% over the past 12 months.

The reason? Lithium prices went on an absolute tear. Spodumene prices almost tripled over the 12 months to June 2026, propelling ASX lithium producers to some of the market's biggest gains.

Then June arrived. Spodumene prices slipped around 12% during the month, and investors hit the sell button just as enthusiastically as they had bought weeks earlier.

So, after the sharp correction, should investors be buying the dip, sitting tight, or heading for the exits?

Lithium giveth, lithium taketh away

PLS has long been regarded as the ASX's highest-beta lithium stock.

When lithium prices surge, PLS shares often leave rivals in the dust thanks to the company's enormous production base, operating leverage, and world-class Pilgangoora mine.

When lithium prices head south, however, the reverse usually happens. Investors tend to reduce exposure to the sector's biggest name first, making PLS one of the hardest-hit stocks during corrections.

That appears to be exactly what's unfolding today. Chinese lithium carbonate futures have continued retreating after a spectacular rally earlier this year. Much of the recent weakness appears to reflect profit-taking, with traders questioning whether prices simply ran ahead of market fundamentals.

Since lithium prices remain the biggest driver of earnings expectations, weaker futures have inevitably weighed on PLS shares.

The business is still firing

Importantly, there's little evidence the company's operations are weakening.

PLS delivered an outstanding first-half FY26 result. Revenue jumped 47% to $624 million as higher lithium prices combined with stronger sales volumes. Underlying EBITDA exploded 241% to $253 million, while EBITDA margins expanded from 17% to an impressive 41%.

That's exactly what investors want to see. The numbers highlight the enormous operating leverage within the business. As lithium prices rise, profits can grow at an even faster pace.

Meanwhile, Pilgangoora remains one of the world's largest and lowest-cost hard-rock lithium operations, giving PLS shares a competitive advantage that many smaller producers simply can't match.

The next key milestone will arrive on 31 August when the company reports its second-half FY26 results. Investors will be watching production, costs, shipments, and any commentary around lithium demand. Updates on the P2000 expansion project will also be closely monitored.

Buy, hold, or sell?

Broker sentiment has become more cautious following the recent rally. According to TradingView data, eight of the 19 analysts covering PLS rate the stock as a buy, six recommend hold, and five have a sell rating.

The average price target sits at $5.77, implying roughly 30% upside from current levels.

Opinions vary widely, though. The most bullish analyst believes PLS shares could climb to $7.30, representing upside of around 65%, while the most bearish sees the stock falling to $3, or about 32% below current levels.

UBS recently downgraded PLS from buy to neutral, arguing that much of the easy money from the lithium recovery has already been made.

Meanwhile, Catapult Wealth and Red Leaf Securities remain bearish, citing concerns that growing global lithium supply could place renewed pressure on prices.

The post PLS shares are down 28%. Are they a buy, hold, or sell? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• What are the top picks in the ASX lithium sector right now?
• Lithium prices are cooling. Here's what that means for these ASX lithium shares
• Experts name 3 big-name ASX 200 shares to sell
• Buy, hold, sell: TechnologyOne, Pro Medicus, PLS Group shares
• 5 ASX All Ords shares that ripped 200% to 400% in FY26

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Who doesn't want their superannuation working harder than they do?

For many Australians, super is the most tax-effective way to build long-term passive income. While you generally can't access it until retirement, the payoff is generous tax concessions while you're accumulating wealth and, potentially, tax-free income in retirement.

So, how much superannuation do you actually need to generate $5,000 a month in passive income?

The answer might be simpler than you think.

It all comes down to dividend yield

A monthly passive income of $5,000 equals $60,000 a year.

From there, it's just a numbers game. Divide your desired annual income by the dividend yield of your portfolio, and you'll have a rough estimate of the super balance required.

For example, a superannuation portfolio yielding 3% would require around $2 million to generate $60,000 in annual dividend income. Lift that yield to 4%, and the required balance falls to roughly $1.5 million.

At a 5% yield, you'd need around $1.2 million, while a portfolio generating 6% income could potentially produce the same annual passive income with approximately $1 million invested.

The lesson? The higher your portfolio's dividend yield, the less capital you need to generate the same income.

Of course, there's a catch.

Yield isn't everything

A sky-high dividend yield might look attractive, but it can sometimes signal trouble ahead. If a company's earnings weaken, today's generous dividend could become tomorrow's dividend cut.

That's why many experienced investors focus on companies that can consistently grow their superannuation, profits and dividends over time, rather than simply chasing the highest yield available.

For investors seeking lower but dependable yields, companies like Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co Ltd (ASX: SOL) have historically offered yields of around 2% to 3%, alongside solid long-term growth.

Those wanting a balance between income and stability could consider businesses such as Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS), Transurban Group (ASX: TCL), or ASX blue-chip BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), which have typically provided dividend yields in the 3% to 4% range, although payouts naturally fluctuate.

For investors primarily focused on maximising income, options such as BetaShares Australian Top 20 Equities Yield Maximiser Complex ETF (ASX: YMAX), MFF Capital Investments Ltd  (ASX: MFF), WCM Global Ltd (ASX: WQG) may be worth exploring.

Foolish takeaway

There isn't one magic super balance that guarantees $5,000 a month in passive income. It all depends on the investments you own, the income they produce, and whether those dividends remain sustainable.

As a general guide, though, investors are likely to need somewhere between $1 million and $2 million invested in quality income-producing assets to generate $60,000 a year, depending on the average dividend yield of their portfolio.

The earlier you start building your superannuation, the more time compounding has to do the heavy lifting. That's one advantage no investor should overlook.

The post How much superannuation do you need to earn $5,000 a month in passive income? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• This UK bank plans to disrupt CBA, ANZ, NAB and Westpac
• 2 ASX blue-chip shares offering big dividend yields
• How many Wesfarmers shares do I need to buy for $10,000 of passive income?
• BHP shares have tripled in the past 10 years. Could history repeat itself over the next decade?
• How I would turn $200,000 into an ASX retirement income portfolio

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group, Transurban Group, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited, and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Mff Capital Investments, Telstra Group, Transurban Group, and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group, Macquarie Group, and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares finished last week on a strong note, climbing 2.5% on Friday to close at $58.28.

The ASX mining giant has eased around 4% over the past month, but the bigger picture remains impressive. BHP shares have surged 28% year to date and are up 54% over the past 12 months.

So, after such a powerful rally, should investors still be buying BHP shares in FY27?

What's driving BHP higher?

BHP shares have ridden a powerful wave of investor enthusiasm for the mining sector, but it hasn't just been lucky. The company has benefited from an 18% jump in copper prices and a 7% rise in iron ore prices, giving earnings a meaningful boost.

And while BHP remains one of the world's biggest iron ore miners, it's increasingly becoming a copper powerhouse. Copper has become the star of the show as demand continues to grow thanks to electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure, and expanding electricity networks.

The metal reached a record high of US$6.60 per pound in May, highlighting just how tight the market has become. That shift matters. During the first half of FY26, copper contributed more than half of BHP's underlying EBITDA, underlining the company's growing exposure to one of the world's most sought-after commodities.

Strong operations, cost blowout

Operationally, the news has also been encouraging. In its third-quarter FY26 update, BHP said strong production from its flagship Escondida mine in Chile and Antamina mine in Peru meant full-year group production was expected to finish at the upper end of guidance.

Earlier this year, BHP secured a US$4.3 billion upfront payment through a long-term silver streaming agreement with Wheaton Precious Metals. The deal strengthened the balance sheet while allowing BHP to unlock value from future silver production at Antamina.

Not everything has gone according to plan for BHP shares, however.

On the downside, the company's Jansen Stage 2 potash project in Canada suffered a sizeable cost blowout. Management of BHP shares now expects the project to cost US$6.9 billion, up from an earlier estimate of US$4.9 billion.

What do the experts think?

Broker sentiment is mixed on BHP shares, although few analysts appear outright bearish.

Morgan Stanley remains one of the most optimistic, retaining its overweight rating and $67.50 price target. That points to a potential 16% upside.

The broker believes recent weakness reflects little more than profit-taking after a strong rally and sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, particularly given its positive outlook for copper.

However, hold remains the dominant rating across the market.

Morgans recently reiterated its hold recommendation while increasing its 12-month target to $59.80.

Meanwhile, Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC) maintained its hold rating but lowered its target to $65. CitiGroup Inc (NYSE: C) and Jefferies also kept hold recommendations while trimming their respective price targets to $63 and $65.

Foolish takeaway

BHP enters FY27 in a strong position, supported by rising copper exposure, healthy operations, and a robust balance sheet.

While the easy gains may already be behind investors after the stock's exceptional run, brokers generally expect BHP to remain well placed if copper prices stay elevated.

For long-term investors seeking exposure to high-quality mining assets, BHP shares continue to make a compelling case.

The post Should you buy BHP shares FY27? Here's what experts are saying appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• BHP shares have tripled in the past 10 years. Could history repeat itself over the next decade?
• Is the BHP share price a buy for its 5% dividend yield?
• BHP shares soared 62% in FY26. Can they keep climbing?
• Why I think BHP is the best ASX mining share
• How to build an ASX dividend portfolio that keeps paying you for decades

Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares finished last week on a disappointing note, falling 2% on Friday to close at $122.89.

The decline interrupted what had been an impressive recovery, with the ASX healthcare stock climbing 24% over the past month.

Even so, it's important to keep that rally in perspective. CSL shares remain down around 29% year to date and have lost roughly half their value over the past 12 months.

So, is this just a short-lived bounce, or could the recovery have further to run?

Why are CSL shares recovering?

After one of the steepest sell-offs in the company's history, investors appear to have concluded that much of the bad news is already reflected in the share price.

CSL spent decades earning a reputation as one of the ASX's highest-quality businesses, consistently delivering earnings growth and rewarding long-term shareholders. Its leadership in plasma-derived therapies and strong global footprint made it a favourite among growth investors.

That narrative unravelled for CSL shares over the past year.

A series of earnings downgrades, leadership changes, and approximately US$5 billion in non-cash impairments related to the CSL Vifor acquisition severely damaged investor confidence and sent the shares tumbling.

However, bargain hunters have started returning as the valuation became increasingly difficult to ignore.

Competitive advantages remain

Importantly, the fundamentals of the business remain intact. CSL is still the world's second-largest plasma-derived therapies company, operating in a highly regulated industry with significant barriers to entry.

Its global plasma collection network, manufacturing expertise, and long-standing customer relationships continue to provide competitive advantages that are difficult for rivals to replicate.

While earnings growth has slowed, the business is still expanding.

Management expects FY26 revenue of around US$15.2 billion and underlying net profit after tax and amortisation (NPATA) of approximately US$3.1 billion on a constant currency basis.

The biggest challenge for CSL shares remains its US immunoglobulin business within CSL Behring, where competitive pressures continue to weigh on margins and growth expectations.

What do the brokers think?

Broker sentiment has become more balanced as CSL shares recover, although opinions differ on just how much upside remains.

Morgans is among the more optimistic brokers. It has a buy recommendation and a price target of $147.59, implying meaningful upside from current levels.

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) is more cautious. The broker has a neutral rating and a $114 price target, citing uncertainty surrounding CSL's core plasma and albumin businesses, as well as ongoing competitive pressures.

According to TradingView data, analyst sentiment remains mixed. Of the 18 analysts covering CSL, 10 have a hold recommendation, while the remaining eight rate the healthcare giant as either a buy or strong buy.

The consensus price target sits at $140.15, suggesting around 14% upside over the next 12 months.

Forecasts vary widely, however. The most bearish analyst expects CSL shares to fall to around $104.55, while the most bullish believes they could climb as high as $199.68.

The post Where could CSL shares go next? Here's what brokers are predicting appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• This UK bank plans to disrupt CBA, ANZ, NAB and Westpac
• Top 3 ASX healthcare stocks to watch
• These ASX shares could generate $12,000 per year in passive income
• CSL vs Telstra shares, which should I buy?
• I'd listen to Warren Buffett and buy cheap ASX shares

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

4DMedical Ltd (ASX: 4DX) shares took a breather during Friday's session, edging 1% higher to $4.10.

The healthcare technology company has pulled back around 12% over the past six months and now trades roughly 46% below the record high it reached in April.

However, the longer-term picture looks very different. This ASX healthcare share is still up an astonishing 1,636% over the past 12 months. Yes, that's more than sixteen-fold in just one year.

So, after such an extraordinary run, could 4DMedical shares eventually reclaim their all-time high?

Why investors have become so bullish

The biggest catalyst behind the remarkable rise of 4DMedical shares has been growing confidence in its commercial prospects.

The company has developed proprietary respiratory imaging technology that produces four-dimensional lung scans, giving doctors significantly more information than traditional imaging methods. The technology has applications across chronic respiratory diseases, lung cancer, and surgical planning.

Importantly, management has shifted its focus from proving the technology to commercialising it.

US growth and AI investments

Over the past year, 4DMedical has secured several significant contracts and partnerships across the US. Recently, the business signed a major agreement with SimonMed, helping expand its CT:VQ lung imaging technology across the US.

Management believes the deal could lift its addressable market to around US$3 billion with major healthcare providers and government agencies. These agreements have strengthened investor confidence that revenue growth can accelerate as adoption increases.

The company has also continued investing in artificial intelligence capabilities to expand the usefulness of its imaging platform and create additional opportunities within respiratory care.

The path back to record highs

For 4DMedical shares to revisit their April peak, investors will likely need further evidence that commercial momentum is translating into sustainable financial results.

Like many emerging healthcare technology companies, 4DMedical remains focused on scaling its business rather than generating large profits today. That means investors are placing significant value on its future growth potential.

Continued contract wins, increasing scan volumes, expanding recurring revenue, and progress in the US healthcare market could all help support a higher valuation over time.

Heavy investments in research

Despite its enormous gains, 4DMedical remains a higher-risk investment.

Commercialising new medical technology can take longer than expected. Particularly, when healthcare providers require clinical validation and budget approvals before adopting new products.

The company also faces competition from established medical imaging businesses and must continue investing heavily in research, product development, and sales to maintain its competitive advantage.

As a high-growth healthcare stock, 4DMedical shares are also likely to remain volatile. Even positive companies can experience large share price swings as investor sentiment shifts.

The post Up 1,636%, but can 4DMedical shares reclaim their record high? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Up over 1,000%: Can the best-performing stocks on the ASX 200 keep rising?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• These are the 10 most shorted ASX shares
• These are the 10 most shorted ASX shares
• Which ASX 200 sectors paid the highest dividend yields in FY26?

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) shares have enjoyed an impressive rebound recently, climbing 31% over the past month as investor confidence has returned to the buy now, pay later (BNPL) provider.

Despite that strong run, the stock remains down around 6% year to date. Over the past 12 months, however, Zip shares have gained approximately 2%.

Looking at the bigger picture shows why many investors still see plenty of recovery potential. Zip shares remain about 64% lower than they were five years ago, while the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has risen roughly 20% over the same period.

With analysts becoming increasingly optimistic about the company's earnings outlook heading into FY27, could the recovery still have plenty of room to run?

Strong financial momentum

One of the biggest reasons for the improving sentiment is Zip's strengthening financial performance.

The fintech company's results have consistently improved over the past several quarters as management has focused on profitability, disciplined lending, and tighter cost controls.

Its third-quarter FY26 update in April highlighted accelerating momentum across the business. Importantly, management upgraded its FY26 group cash EBITDA guidance to at least $260 million, up from previous guidance of around $248.6 million.

The earnings upgrade demonstrated that Zip is successfully balancing growth with profitability. That's a key milestone for Zip shares after several challenging years for the BNPL sector.

The US is becoming increasingly important

Another major attraction is Zip's expanding opportunity in the United States.

The company has been investing heavily in growing both its customer base and product offering in what is now its largest market. The US BNPL market remains significantly underpenetrated compared with Australia and continues to benefit from increasing consumer adoption and merchant demand.

Late last year, Zip expanded its partnership with programmable financial services company Stripe, allowing more merchants to offer Zip's payment solutions through Stripe's platform. The partnership provides access to a large network of businesses and could accelerate merchant acquisition over time.

Adding to the opportunity, Zip is pursuing a dual listing on the Nasdaq. A US listing of Zip shares could improve the company's visibility among American investors, increase liquidity, and potentially support future expansion initiatives in its largest growth market.

Fierce competition, increased volatility

Of course, investors should remember that Zip operates in a highly competitive industry.

The company faces competition from Klarna, PayPal, Block's Afterpay business, traditional banks, and credit card providers. Intense competition could weigh on margins or slow customer growth.

As a growth stock, Zip is also sensitive to changes in investor sentiment, interest rates, consumer spending, and employment conditions. That means Zip shares are likely to remain more volatile than many defensive businesses.

What are the experts saying?

According to TradingView data, analysts remain overwhelmingly positive on Zip's outlook.

Of the 12 analysts covering the company, 11 have either a buy or strong buy recommendation. Their average price target of $4.17 suggests around 36% upside from current levels.

Some analysts are even more bullish, with the highest price target sitting at $5.59 per share, implying potential upside of roughly 82%.

United Capital Partners (UCPS) is also constructive on Zip shares, arguing that the market is underestimating the company's disciplined cost management and long-term US growth opportunity.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $4.85, which implies potential upside of around 58%. If Zip continues delivering stronger earnings while successfully expanding in the US, that target may not be out of reach.

The post Why brokers think Zip shares could soar 50% or more in FY27 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why this top expert thinks Qantas shares can fly 20% higher
• Westgold Resources exceeds guidance with record gold production in FY26
• Mercury NZ trading margin jumps 33% as renewables drive Q4 result
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.