CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares closed marginally higher on Thursday afternoon, up 0.38% to $92.59.
For the year-to-date the shares are down around 46% and 62% lower than 12 months ago.
Image source: Getty Images
Why are CSL shares still falling?
CSL shares suffered their biggest-ever one-day crash in early-May after the company lowered its FY26 outlook after interim CEO Gordon Naylor completed his 90-day review.
The biotech company said weakness in China albumin pricing, inventory normalisation in the US immunoglobulin market, and several operational factors had weighed heavily on profitability. The downgrade has only reinforced investor concerns that CSL's earnings momentum is still weak.
Management now expects FY26 revenue of around US$15.2 billion on a constant currency basis. It also expects NPATA of about US$3.1 billion, excluding restructuring costs and impairments.
It's not the only headwind facing CSL shares though.
Aside from company-specific headwinds, CSL shares have also been smashed by a broad market rotation away from healthcare-related stocks this year.
The huge sector-wide downturn has put ASX healthcare 200 shares under significant pressure this year driven by macroeconomic pressures, a weaker US dollar, rising inflation, higher cost-of-living, and regulatory uncertainty.
The S&P/ASX 200 Health Care Index (ASX: XHJ) is the worst performing sector by far in 2026 and has significantly underperformed the broader index. The decrease has pushed shares of many major ASX healthcare companies, including CSL, to multi-year lows.
At the time of writing, the ASX 200 Health Care Index is down around 34% for the year to date and 47% lower than 12 months ago.
For context, the wider S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is largely flat for the year to date and 3% higher than this time last year.
What do brokers tip next for CSL shares?
Sentiment is mixed.
Market Index data shows that the majority (five out of seven) have a hold rating on CSL shares. But, using an average $143.76 target price, brokers are tipping a 55% upside over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.
TradingView data shows that 10 out of 18 analysts have a hold rating, the other eight have a buy or strong buy rating. The average $140.60 target price implies a potential 52% upside at the time of writing. Although, some expect the stock to jump 108% higher to $193.04, from the current trading price.
The team at Morgans reduced its forecasts and target price following CSL's guidance downgrade. The broker pointed to issues including China albumin price pressure, US immunoglobulin channel inventory normalisation, paused Iran sales, and weaker sales in some areas. Morgans still has a buy recommendation, with a target price of $147.59.
Macquarie also reduced its target price to reflect earnings uncertainty for the same reasons. But the broker also has concerns about the company's ongoing management uncertainty. The team now has a much smaller $111 price target on CSL shares.
Is it worth buying CSL shares right now?
Analysts consensus seems to be that we should expect an upside ahead, but as high as the trading levels seen earlier this year.
I'm expecting more downside ahead before the shares start to rebound next year, or maybe even later, when the financial benefits of the company's growth initiative start filtering through.
Patient investors could see the latest share price as an opportunity to buy in the dip. But they would need to readjust expectations about how far the share price can go, and when.
