Canaccord Genuity has just published the latest edition of its Invest Now publication, in which it lists its "highest conviction investment ideas''.
They've named two new ASX 200 shares in this list, which I'll get to shortly.
First, let's look at their broader take on the economy.
Image source: Getty Images
Relief rally could be on the way
As a starter, they are basing their outlook on a solution to the Middle East conflict, which has been in a stalemate for some weeks now.
As they said:
A Middle East resolution in the relatively near future remains our central case. Both sides ultimately have strong incentives to negotiate a deal. There is still a decent but finite buffer of energy product reserves, but the clock is ticking on a deal being struck in coming weeks.
CG said that a truce would see a bigger "relief rally" in markets outside of the US, in their opinion, "however the global growth outlook has undoubtedly been tempered by the events in the Middle East, which should favour the tech-led US market at the margin once any short-term relief rally has faded''.
In Australia, CG said the underperformance of the local market versus global equities since the market's February highs has been "stark".
They said:
The initial period of relative underperformance in March was related to Australia's perceived sensitivity to a global energy shock as the outbreak of the US-Iran war saw investors move to price significant downside risks for the global economy. While Australia is well ahead of its late March lows, the local rebound has been held back by a number of factors.
These include a lack of technology exposure, rising domestic macroeconomic concerns, and some disappointing earnings announcements.
ASX 200 shares to consider
In terms of the stocks they like in this scenario, they have added Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL) and TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE) to their list.
They said their conviction in Aristocrat had improved materially since its "broadly in-line" first-half result.
They added:
The result suggests the business has returned to consistent execution and double‑digit earnings growth, while importantly demonstrating that it continues to gain share in US land-based gaming, which is key to our thesis. Pleasingly, iGaming momentum also remains strong as the high-growth segment scales towards its US$1bn FY29 revenue target.
With regards to TechnologyOne, they said it was a high-quality software business, "with a deeply embedded customer base across key verticals including government and education''.
They added:
The company's operational momentum is strong, with FY26 tracking towards the top end of guidance and FY27 is shaping up as another ~20% profit before tax growth year. We remain confident in TNE's resilience against AI disruption, runway for growth, supported by earnings upgrades from its AI tool Plus.
Other companies in CG's favoured list locally include Alcoa Corporation (ASX: AAI), Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), and Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX).
