At the start of 2026, fundies had high hopes for global small-caps given many Western nations, including the US, appeared poised to cut interest rates.

The war in Iran has changed that outlook.

A two-week ceasefire is now in place, however, the shock to energy supplies will take months to filter throughout Western economies.

Given oil's flow-through effect to so many parts of the economy, including grocery prices, the impact may be enough to push up inflation.

Central banks are likely to respond by either hiking rates, or delaying previously anticipated rate cuts.

In Australia, inflation was resurgent even before the war began.

We've had two rate hikes already this year, and the market is pricing in a 60% chance of another one next month.

Higher interest rates are typically a headwind for small-caps, which are typically young companies using debt to fund their growth.

Here are 3 ASX small-cap shares that fund manager, Blackwattle, is backing for solid growth.

Blackwattle holds all three of these ASX shares in its Small Cap Quality Fund.

Lindian Resources Ltd (ASX: LIN)

The Lindian Resources share price is 88 cents, up 1.4% today.

This ASX rare earths mining share rose 26% over the past month, and is 782% higher over the past year.

Portfolio managers Robert Hawkesford and Daniel Broeren said:

Lindian Resources (+24.7%) is a rare earths miner in the final stages of bringing online its lead project, Kangankunde.

This is a unique asset given its low mining cost and extremely low capex requirements versus other rare earth projects globally.

For these reasons the company should be able to transition to production quickly, with first ore due later this year.

In March, Lindian announced a JV with a rare earths processor, which will allow it to produce a higher-grade concentrate.

This has materially increased the value of the company as it captures more of the value chain and taps into Western markets looking to pivot away from China supply.

Ridley Corporation Ltd (ASX: RIC)

The Ridley Corporation share price is steady at $2.74 on Thursday.

This small-cap ASX agribusiness share rose 2% over the past month, and is 14% higher over 12 months.

Blackwattle also holds this ASX share in its Small Cap Quality Fund.

Hawkesford and Broeren comment:

While the business may appear on the boring side, the excitement for us comes from the operational improvements executed by the management team under the current CEO, Quinton Hildebrand.

Hildebrand has guided the share price from 75c in 2020 to $2.90 by taking a strict focus on ROIC discipline.

Looking forward we are particularly excited about what can be delivered from the newly acquired fertiliser business, Incitec Pivot.

Superloop Ltd (ASX: SLC)

Superloop shares are $3.23, up 0.8% today.

This small-cap ASX telecommunications share rose 13% over the past month, and is 60% higher over 12 months.

Hawkesford and Broeren said:

Shares rose strongly in February following a well-received 1H26 result that demonstrated clear operating leverage and broad-based growth across all key metrics and segments.

Superloop continues to take market share from incumbent telecommunications providers, supported by its competitively priced high-speed broadband offerings and vertically integrated network.

Management commentary also reinforced confidence in the company's growth trajectory, with continued subscriber additions and
improving scale across the platform expected to drive meaningful earnings expansion over the coming years.

The post 3 ASX small-cap shares this fund manager expects to outperform appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Then you might want to give Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) shares a pass and have a look at Superloop Ltd (ASX: SLC) instead.

With a market cap of $1.6 billion, Superloop is still a minnow compared to Telstra, which commands a market cap of $59.4 billion.

But the smaller ASX 200 stock has been outperforming Telstra shares for a long time now.

Year to date, Superloop shares are up 24.7%, compared to an 8.6% gain posted by Telstra. Stepping back a full year, Superloop shares are up 46.3% compared to the 27.9% 12-month gain in the Telstra share price.

And if we go back five years, then Superloop shares are up 247.8%, racing ahead of the 55.3% gains posted by Telstra over this period.

Now, Telstra does pay dividends, which Superloop does not. At least not yet. But even taking Telstra's 3.8% partly-franked dividend yield into account, Superloop shares have still delivered materially superior returns.

This strong performance and resulting gains in its market cap saw the stock added to the ASX 200 Index in September.

And looking ahead, Alphinity Investment Management portfolio manager Stuart Welch believes the company could benefit from further earnings upgrades (courtesy of The Australian Financial Review).

ASX 200 stock on the growth path

"We invest in companies that are delivering earnings ahead of expectations and have future earnings forecasts upgraded," Welch explained.

Asked which stock his fund owns that most people wouldn't be familiar with, Welch said:

Alphinity typically invests in large, reasonably valued, quality businesses that are in an earnings upgrade cycle. So, it is rare that investors haven't heard of the stocks we invest in.

However, [one that] readers might be less familiar with is Superloop, which competes against Telstra offering high speed NBN, fixed wireless broadband, and mobile phone services. They also service business and wholesale customers.

Commenting on why he's bullish on the ASX 200 stock, Welch concluded:

In our view, Superloop has the potential to continue having future earnings forecasts upgraded as they take market share, given their relatively low-cost positioning supported by their infrastructure ownership.

Superloop's Telstra beating growth figures

Superloop reported its half-year (H1 FY 2026) results on 18 February.

Highlights included a 23% year-on-year increase in revenue to $317.6 million.

And underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the six months were up 46% to $55.8 million.

As for those earnings upgrades, the ASX 200 stock boosted its guidance for full-year FY 2026 underlying EBITDA to between $112 million and $120 million, up from prior guidance of $109 million to $117 million.

The post Forget Telstra shares! Buy this fast-rising ASX 200 telco stock instead appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Superloop report?

• Over 250,000 Origin broadband subscribers now on the Superloop network (Milestone 4 achieved)
• Triggers share issue obligation based on customer milestones
• Milestone shares priced at the 30-day VWAP at milestone date
• Shares subject to 12-month voluntary lock-up

What else do investors need to know?

Superloop's Origin contract is an exclusive six-year deal to provide wholesale internet services to Origin Energy Retail and its subsidiaries. The deal, secured in March 2024, has enabled Superloop to substantially grow its retail broadband subscriber base.

Each milestone achieved under the Origin contract triggers the issue of Superloop shares, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals. The shares issued for Milestone 4 are locked up for one year, aligning management's interests with long-term performance.

What's next for Superloop?

Looking ahead, Superloop will continue executing on its Origin partnership and remains focused on growing its position as a leading challenger in the Australian broadband market. Reaching Milestone 4 demonstrates progress in scaling its wholesale and retail internet offerings.

The company will seek required approvals to issue the new milestone shares and uphold its obligations under the Origin agreement. Superloop's strategy centres on innovation and customer growth as it leverages its infrastructure and software platforms.

Superloop share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Superloop shares have risen 34%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 9% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Superloop surges past 250,000 Origin connections, triggers next milestone appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

But despite the shares piling on more than 10% gains after the company's announcements, the three analysts we've canvassed all agree there's more upside to this stock.

Firstly, let's look at what the company announced this week.

Solid earnings jump

On the numbers, Superloop announced that its underlying EBITDA jumped 46% to $55.8 million, while net profit was $5.1 million, compared with a loss of $7.8 million for the same period last year.

The company added 74,000 new customers in the half, a 21% gain, bringing total customers to 805,000.

Superloop also upgraded its underlying EBITDA outlook for the full year to $112 to $120 million, up from $109 to $117 million.

Managing Director Paul Tyler said regarding the results:

Superloop has delivered fantastic results for the first of half of FY26, including record organic Consumer customer growth, an increase in revenue of 23%, and an increase of 46% in underlying EBITDA to $55.8 million, leading to net profit after tax of $5.1 million for the half. Both the Consumer segment and the Wholesale segment achieved strong revenue growth, 29% and 28% respectively. Consumer added a record 49,000 customers during the half, and Wholesale experienced accelerated growth in the last two months, setting the business up for a strong second half.   

New acquisition

The other news the company announced was the purchase of last mile internet provider Lightning Broadband, with that deal bringing with it a fibre to the premises network of 24,000 built lots nationally and a further 30,000 contracted lots.

Superloop said it expected synergies of $5 million to be achieved within three years, and the buyout was priced at 15 times Lightning's estimated 2027 earnings.

Mr Tyler said the deal was a crucial step in building out Superloop's "smart communities" asset base.

He added:

The combination of Lightning Broadband with Superloop's existing Smart Communities portfolio, including the acquisition of Frontier Networks during the first half, creates a serious challenger to incumbents. With a combined built and contracted book of approximately 170,000 lots, we have clear visibility of long-term sustainable growth." "Lightning Broadband's strength in multi-dwelling units complements our expertise in broadacre, build-to-rent and Purpose-Built Student Accommodation. Our existing fibre network, including 2,500km of metropolitan footprint, enables direct connection to Lightning Broadband buildings, driving cost synergies and increasing network resilience.

Shares looking cheap

So what do the analysts think of all this?

We looked at research notes published by Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, and UBS, and they're all in agreement.

Both Macquarie and UBS have a 12-month price target of $3.50 on Superloop shares, while Morgan Stanley has a price target of $3.60.

This compares with just $2.85 currently.

Morgan Stanley said they were attracted to the company "as the low-cost operator, especially in selling a commoditised but essential service like broadband''.

They added:

Given the high incremental margins outlined above, we feel Superloop is well positioned to respond to any price competition.

UBS said the first half result was "pleasing", beating consensus estimates across the board.

Meanwhile, Macquarie said the company "materially outperformed market expectations" in its consumer and wholesale businesses.

The post The analysts are in agreement, this tech company's shares are a buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The broadband provider said in a statement to the ASX that revenue for the half had jumped 23% to $317.6 million, "driven by strong customer and market share gains in consumer and wholesale''.

Back in the black

Underlying EBITDA jumped 46% to $55.8 million while net profit was $5.1 million compared with a loss of $7.8 million for the same period last year.

The company added 74,000 new customers for the half, a gain of 21%, with total customer numbers now sitting at 805,000.

Superloop also upgraded its underlying EBITDA outlook for the full year to $112 to $120 million, up from $109 to $117 million.

Managing Director Paul Tyler said regarding the results:

Superloop has delivered fantastic results for the first of half of FY26, including record organic Consumer customer growth, an increase in revenue of 23%, and an increase of 46% in underlying EBITDA to $55.8 million, leading to net profit after tax of $5.1 million for the half. Both the Consumer segment and the Wholesale segment achieved strong revenue growth, 29% and 28% respectively. Consumer added a record 49,000 customers during the half, and Wholesale experienced accelerated growth in the last two months, setting the business up for a strong second half.    

Major deal announced

In a separate statement to the ASX, Superloop said it had struck a deal to acquire Lightning Broadband for $165 million in cash.

The deal would bring with it Lightning Broadband's fibre to the premises network of 24,000 built lots nationally and a further 30,000 contracted lots.

Supleroop said Lightning was also the default last mile service provider across more than 400 multi and single-dwelling units nationally.

Superloop said it expected synergies of $5 million to be achieved within three years, and the buyout was priced at 15 times Lightning's estimated 2027 earnings.

Mr Tyler said the deal was a crucial step in building out Superloop's "smart communities'' asset base.

He added:

The combination of Lightning Broadband with Superloop's existing Smart Communities portfolio, including the acquisition of Frontier Networks during the first half, creates a serious challenger to incumbents. With a combined built and contracted book of approximately 170,000 lots, we have clear visibility of long-term sustainable growth." "Lightning Broadband's strength in multi-dwelling units complements our expertise in broadacre, build-to-rent and Purpose-Built Student Accommodation. Our existing fibre network, including 2,500km of metropolitan footprint, enables direct connection to Lightning Broadband buildings, driving cost synergies and increasing network resilience.

The deal is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of FY26.

Superloop shares rallied hard on the news, hitting a high of $2.86 before settling back to be 12.8% higher at $2.73.

Supleroop was valued at $1.25 billion at the close of trade on Tuesday.

The post Superloop shares rocket on major acquisition and strong profits appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Superloop report?

• AGL Energy intends to divest its telecommunications business.
• Superloop's wholesale agreement with Southern Phone (AGL subsidiary) expires June 2029.
• Subscriber migration from AGL's network anticipated in first half of FY27.
• Estimated potential gross margin impact of up to $4 million per year if agreement usage drops fully.

What else do investors need to know?

Superloop supplies network and backhaul transit services to Southern Phone, which has contributed to its wholesale segment revenues. The agreement with Southern Phone runs until mid-2029, but changing circumstances could see a material reduction in usage and income should the migration occur as foreshadowed.

Management estimates the total annual gross margin impact could reach $4 million, depending on the extent of AGL's migration from Superloop's infrastructure. There is no mention of a change to guidance at this stage.

What's next for Superloop?

Investors will watch for further developments as AGL progresses the sale and refocuses its telecommunications operations. Superloop will be assessing the full impact on its future earnings as more details emerge around the subscriber migration.

Superloop remains committed to servicing its large portfolio of consumer, business, and wholesale customers and continues to invest in its fibre and wireless network infrastructure.

Superloop share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Superloop shares have risen 8%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 6% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Superloop flags $4 million margin risk from AGL telecom business exit appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

For the year-to-date, the shares have fallen 2.36%, but the share price is still 18.87% above where it was this time last year.

The telco is a fantastic defensive stock. It seems to perform steadily, regardless of what stage of the economic cycle we're in. This is attractive for investors who want to hedge against potential volatility elsewhere. 

The company's financial performance was robust in 2025. Its latest full-year results, released in August, showed stronger underlying growth and financial performance. At the time, Telstra also said it expected its year-on-year growth to continue. 

But Telstra shares have been in the spotlight recently. The telco giant underwent a buyback of its shares between late-November to mid-December. 

Around the same time, the company hit headlines amid concerns about its calling reliability. A Senate inquiry is reportedly examining cases where Triple Zero calls may have failed, including situations linked to older devices and network/handset software interactions. 

And it looks like the two things, alongside an overall contraction of the telco market since late 2025, have softened investor confidence. TradingView data shows 7 out of 11 analysts have a hold rating on Telstra shares, with an average target price of $4.94. This is just 4.16% above the current trading price at the time of writing.

While Telstra shares are a great buy for passive income, and it's possible the shares could resurge after this period of instability, there is another good quality ASX telco stock which I think offers an even better opportunity for investors right now.

This ASX telco stock is set to leap higher

Superloop Ltd (ASX: SLC) is an Australian-based fixed-line internet service provider. It provides broadband services to consumers and businesses, as well as wholesale solutions to other downstream internet services entities. 

Its services include Wi-Fi management, mobile services, and National Broadband Network products. The company owns an extensive fiber network and is also a part-owner of the Indigo subsea cable. 

The telco has rapidly expanded in recent years with several large acquisitions in recent years, including Exetel (an internet retailer) in 2021 and Uecomm (a fiber infrastructure) in 2024.

At the time of writing, Superloop shares are down 0.21% for the day to $2.38. For the year-to-date the shares have slumped 6.47%, but the stock is currently 15.22% above where it was this time last year.

The telco's shares follow a very similar pattern to Telstra shares, but analysts are significantly more bullish about Superloop's potential for growth this year.

The team at Jarden recently said the Superloop business is under appreciated by the market. The broker also thinks that the business is best positioned (versus its competitors) to beat current market expectations. 

Jarden has a buy rating and $3.40 target price on Superloop shares. TradingView data shows some analysts are even more bullish on the stock. Out of 9 analysts, 8 have a buy or strong buy rating on Superloop, with a maximum price target of $3.75 a piece. That implies the shares could rise another 56.9% over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.

The post Forget Telstra shares, I'd buy this ASX telco stock instead appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Both Aussie Broadband Ltd (ASX: ABB) and Superloop Ltd (ASX: SLC) will face increasing competitive pressure from Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS), the Jarden team says, with Telstra "unbundling modems and collapsing visible price premiums, though we see asymmetric risk/reward profiles between the two challengers''.

Tough market conditions

The Jarden team said in their research note to clients this week that there has been a contraction in the telco market since the end of FY25, and this "reflects implicit negative earnings expectations that we believe create potential for significant volatility on result day''.

They went on to say:

We expect Superloop is better positioned to beat these lowered market expectations. Reflecting this view, we are downgrading Aussie Broadband to neutral from overweight with a reduced target price of $5.25 (from $5.80), while maintaining our buy rating on Superloop with an adjusted target price of $3.25 (from $3.40).

Should Superloop achieve that price target, it would be a 33.2% return from current levels.

Jarden has reduced its earnings per share expectations for Superloop by 10% for FY26, but says "this reflects the law of small numbers rather than fundamental deterioration''.

They went on to say:

We expect consumer gross margins to outperform expectations despite competitive intensity, with pricing discipline remaining intact.

In Superloop's wholesale business, Jarden said Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG), which on-sells Superloop products under its own brand, materially increased promotional activity late in the first half, "positioning the company for stronger second half 2026 subscriber growth as marketing spend is deployed''.

The Jarden team said Superloop's Smart Communities business also remained underappreciated by the market.

Challenges ahead for Aussie

Should the Aussie Broadband share price hit the Jarden price target, it would constitute an 8.3% return from current levels.

The Jarden team said their main concern for this business going forward was residential growth challenges.

More broadly, we see mounting structural headwinds as larger base management effects combine with direct exposure to Telstra's entry into the BYO segment, likely limiting Aussie Broadband's growth runway.  Additionally (now confirmed by Aussie broadband), Symbio faces significant margin pressure from ACCC mandated voice interconnection rate cuts that will see a 70% reduction from 86c/min to 26c/min, creating approximately $9m in EBITDA headwinds by FY29.

Symbio is a division of Aussie Broadband that specialises in hosting phone services for large businesses.

The post Which telco challenger brand could deliver a 33% return? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The two businesses I'm about to cover are expected to deliver an impressive compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of profit between now and the end of the decade.

Based on the bullish price targets, both of the following stocks could see double-digit returns within the next 12 months.

Superloop Ltd (ASX: SLC)

UBS describes Superloop as a business that provides telecommunications infrastructure, cloud and broadband services in the Asia Pacific region.

It has a wholesale division that services large-scale telco, data and telco customers, as well as retail internet service providers (ISPs) that do not have access to their own connectivity.

The business segment services small, medium and large corporate customers that purchase connectivity services to facilitate their core businesses. Finally, the consumer segment provides basic internet and mobile phone products for domestic residential use.

UBS notes that the company is expecting FY26 operating profit (EBITDA) to be between $109 million to $117 million, which would represent growth of between 18% to 27%.

Following UBS' analysis of the ASX growth share's AGM update, the broker noted the key area of subscription growth weakness was in the wholesale segment, meaning Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG), which only saw 1,000 additions. This was likely because its NBN plans were around 30% higher than the median (competitor) NBN reseller price.

But, since 1 November, Origin is now offering nearly the cheapest NBN plans in the market, which has reportedly driven an increase in wholesale subscription growth for the ASX growth share to an implied 4,000 per month net add rate. UBS expects wholesale subscription growth of 5,000 per month for the rest of FY26.

UBS also expects the consumer segment to add around 70,000 over the financial year, with around 5,800 per month.

The broker concluded:

We still remain very supportive of the growth opportunity that exists for Superloop given its position as the key enabler of challenger broadband market share gains. We believe challengers can lift their mkt share to c.35% from current levels of c.20% creating a still to be won A$3.1bn revenue opportunity. This underpins our forecasted 3yr cash EPS CAGR of 26%.

…We also like the upside opportunity being created in the high multiple Smart Communities earnings stream.

UBS predicts the company could grow its net profit from $42 million in FY26 to $97 million in FY30. It's currently valued at 31x FY26's estimated earnings. The broker has a price target of $3.40, implying a possible rise of 36% within a year.

TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE)

UBS describes this ASX tech share as an enterprise software provider which offers a suite of solutions for local, state and federal governments, financial services, education, utilities, health and community services.

The broker is optimistic on the ASX growth share because of its ongoing net revenue retention (NRR) of 115%. That figure describes how much revenue the business has made from customers that it had last year, implying 15% revenue growth year-over-year from existing customers.

There are two reasons why UBS believes NRR can continue to be at least 115%:

1. Launch of AI products provides a new monetisation opportunity; 2) UK ramp remains very strong.

The broker believes the ASX growth share can grow its profit before tax (PBT) at around 20% per year over the next five years, which is why it rates the company as a buy. If NRR grows faster than 115%, then PBT growth could be faster than 20% per year.

There are two other reasons why UBS has conviction in the growth story and the quality of the business:

3) Cash conversion: typically strong at 129%; 4) Capital management: Result included a 10cps special dividend and increase in future payout ratio range to 65-75% (from 55-65%).

In other words, the business is generating pleasing cash flow compared to its reported profits and the company is rewarding investors with more generous dividends.

UBS predicts that the ASX growth share can grow its net profit from $163 million in FY26 to $340 million in FY30. The UBS price target is now $38.70, implying a possible rise of 42% within the next year.

The post Experts rate these 2 ASX growth shares as buys this month! appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Superloop shares are trading 2.37% lower in Tuesday afternoon trading, at $2.46 per share. For the year to date, the shares are 14.12% higher.

Meanwhile, Aussie Broadband shares are also trading in the red at the time of writing, down 2.3% to $4.88 each. For the year to date, the shares have rocketed 37.71% higher.

In a new note to investors this morning, analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have updated their outlook on the two shares. Here's what the broker had to say.

Macquarie's outlook on Superloop shares

In a note to investors, Macquarie analysts confirmed their outperform rating and $3.30 target price on Superloop shares.

At the time of writing, this implies a potential 34.1% upside ahead for investors over the next 12 months.

"Recent price-cuts by Telstra on NBN plans (500 mbps: $113 to $99) will dilute the growth tailwind from NBN speed changes," Macquarie explained in its investor note.

But the broker said that it thinks Superloop's exposure to Telstra price moves is limited and estimates that less than 10% of potential new Superloop customers will be impacted by these changes. Meanwhile, it expects Aussie Broadband's exposure to be greater given its premium-end service offering. 

"We also think that an upcoming ACCC ruling on Symbio revenues could also have up to -8% impact on VA consensus EBITDA forecasts for FY27E," Macquarie analysts said.

"Our pick in [the telco] space is SLC, noting that its P/E valuation has declined by -3x P/E since Aug-25 (-0.4x more than ABB), despite being under-indexed to the impact of TLS' price change."

Macquarie's outlook on Aussie Broadband shares

Macquarie analysts also confirmed their neutral rating and $5.10 target price on Aussie Broadband shares. The shares were last downgraded by the broker in November.

At the time of writing, this still implies that there could be an additional 4.5% upside for investors over the next 12 months.

As mentioned above, the main reason for the less optimistic outlook on the shares is Aussie Broadband's exposure to headwinds from recent Telstra price changes.

"Whilst we still believe NBN customer churn will be a tailwind to the Challengers, we note that recent TLS price cuts in Nov-25 caused us to downgrade our view on ABB from Outperform to Neutral. Given its higher OpEx model and focus on providing premium service (Australian call-centres) product to consumers, we expect ABB's Residential business to be over-indexed to TLS, and thus more sensitive to the impact of TLS' recent price cuts," the broker explained.

The post Superloop versus Aussie Broadband shares: Buy, sell or hold? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the time of writing, Aussie Broadband shares are in deficit, down 2.82% for the day at $5 a piece. Today's decline means the shares are now 14.62% lower over the month and 16% lower than their 3.5-year peak in late October. Thanks to huge gains over the past 6 months, Aussie Broadband shares are still 37.98% higher over the year.

Superloop shares are also trading in the red this afternoon. At the time of writing, the shares are 5.17% lower for the day, trading at $2.30 each. The decline has pushed the shares 29.82% lower over the month, but they're still 11.71% higher over the year, again, mostly owing to strong gains since May.

In a new note to investors this morning, analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have updated their outlook on the two shares. And there is one clear winner.

Macquarie's take on Aussie Broadband shares

The broker has lowered its outlook on Aussie Broadband shares to neutral, from outperform. It has also cut its 12-month price target on the stock by 20% to $5.10, from $6.35 previously.

At the time of writing, the revised price target implies a potential 2% upside for investors over the next 12 months.

"Our ABB target price cut of -20% reflects: 1) EPS Change: Revisions of -3% in FY26E, -7% in FY27E, -9% in FY28E…. 2) DCF: Beta increase from 1 to 1.2, reflecting increased potential volatility from pricing changes if OPT/TPG/Vodafone also lower prices, or TLS continues to lower prices further…. 3) PE-Rel Valuation: P/E Multiple used to value the business reduced from 37x NTM P/E to 30x P/E on NTM earnings, which represents a decrease to only +10% above its historical Long-Run Average P/E Relative to the ASX300," the broker said in its note.

"Our rating change to Neutral reflects a lower TSR (0%), given our target price change."

Macquarie's take on Superloop shares

Macquarie analysts have, however, maintained their outperform rating on Superloop shares, putting the telco as the favourite. The target price was also reduced by 7% to $3.30, down from $3.55 previously.

At the time of writing, this represents a potential 43.5% upside for investors over the next 12 months.

"Our SLC target price cut of -7%, reflects: 1) EPS Changes: Our EPS changes (-4% in FY26E & FY27E, -3% in FY28E) reflect a moderation in our estimates for Users growth in SLC's Consumer business…. 2) DCF: Beta increase from 1.05 to 1.15, reflecting increased potential volatility from competitor pricing moves," Macquarie analysts explained in the note.

The post Superloop vs Aussie Broadband shares: Which has the strongest upside? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In the last 12 months, its share price is up nearly 50%. 

This has far outpaced the S&P/ASX 200 Communication Services Index (ASX: XTJ), which is up roughly 9% in that same period. 

However, today, Superloop shares have opened by losing more than 3%.

Superloop is an Australian-based telecommunications company that provides connectivity and internet services. 

Despite already rising significantly in 2025, the team at Macquarie has an outperform on Superloop shares and an attractive price target. 

Here's the latest guidance out of the broker. 

Earnings and growth on track

Superloop held its AGM yesterday. 

The company reported for FY25: 

• Revenue jumped by 31% to $547 million
• Underlying EBITDA rose 70% to $92.2 million
• Net profit after tax positive for the first time since 2020
• Total customer numbers increased 60% to 731,000
• Further market recognition: entered S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and won multiple industry awards

The team at Macquarie said that EBITDA guide was -1% below VA consensus and overall was relatively in line with guidance. 

In its AGM, Superloop also announced that the acquisition of Frontier Networks was completed on 31 October 2025 for $11.5m. It adds 10,500 lots with 4,700 completed and 5,800 lots under construction. 

Macquarie highlighted this as a positive long-term move in its report. 

Today's Frontier acquisition (11k FTTP lots), and organic growth in Smart Communities (YTD: 5k PBSA, 5k FTTP lots) increases the potential (high-multiple) earnings upside by +21% – albeit on a 3-5 year view.

Price target upside for Superloop shares

Based on this guidance, the team at Macquarie has an outperform rating and price target of $3.55 on Superloop shares. 

Based on today's opening price of $2.82, this indicates an upside of 25.89%. 

SLC's outlook remains positive, in our view. We see an opportunity from SLC trading at 18.6x EV/EBITDA after today's shareprice response. This represents a -2% discount to its LR ave. (19x), despite tailwinds to multiple-accretion (particularly Smart Communities).

Elsewhere, TradingView has a 12-month price target of $3.45, which indicates more than 22% upside.

Online brokerage platform Selfwealth lists Superloop shares as undervalued by approximately 17%.

The post Up 30% this year, how much further upside does Macquarie predict for Superloop shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Superloop report in FY25?

• Revenue jumped by 31% to $547 million
• Underlying EBITDA rose 70% to $92.2 million
• Net profit after tax positive for the first time since 2020
• Total customer numbers increased 60% to 731,000
• Further market recognition: entered ASX 200 and won multiple industry awards

What else do investors need to know?

Superloop continued to make progress on its "Double Down" strategy, maintaining cost leadership and broadening its market reach across the Consumer, Business, and Wholesale segments. The company also won several high-profile contracts, including its appointment as the sole statutory infrastructure provider for the new city of Bradfield in Sydney.

Environmental and social initiatives remain a focus for Superloop. The company has shrunk its gender pay gap to 5.7%, helped over 3,300 households connect to free internet through the School Student Broadband Initiative, and advanced sustainability by upgrading core routers and reducing electronic waste.

What did Superloop management say?

Chairman Bevan Slattery said:

I'm pleased to report that in year two, our strategy continues to deliver results. Revenue increased by 31% to $547m, Underlying EBITDA grew by 70% to $92.2m, and once again, we achieved strong growth in new customers, up 60% to 731,000. Pleasingly, Superloop delivered a positive Net Profit After Tax result for the financial year, the first such result for the Company since the turnaround began in 2020.

What's next for Superloop?

Superloop will focus on driving organic growth, prudent investments, and building recognition for both the Superloop and Exetel brands. The 2026 financial year marks the final year of the Double Down strategy, with management seeking to consolidate gains and deepen customer engagement.

The company also plans to advance its ESG initiatives, further strengthen remuneration practices, and execute on opportunities created by the Origin Energy agreement and recent board appointments.

Superloop share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Superloop shares have risen 51%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 7% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Superloop posts strong revenue growth and its first net profit since 2020 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The Australian telecommunications company that provides internet and mobile services for residential, business, and wholesale customers has enjoyed a strong price rally this year. It entered the ASX 200 index in September this year.

Over the past 6 months, Superloop shares have climbed 22.06%, and over the year they're 59.79% higher.

And now, in a note to investors ahead of the company's annual general meeting (AGM) tomorrow, analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have said what they expect from the stock next.

Robust upside ahead for the ASX All Ords telco

The broker has confirmed its outperform rating and $3.65 target price on Superloop shares. At the time of writing that implies a potential 18.1% upside ahead for investors.

"Our A$3.65 target price implies a TSR of +21% over NTM. We note that at a NTM EV/EBITDA only +3% above its long-run average, we think current share price levels represent an attractive buying opportunity into the AGM," Macquarie analysts said.

Catalysts: A strong AGM update incl FY26 EBITDA guidance, Balance sheet deployment on value-accretive M&A/inorganic growth, Origin customer growth…..SLC's outlook remains positive, in our view – with Origin growth continuing at strong levels, and catalysts in the Consumer & Business segments. Downside risk is protected by a $30m Net Cash balance sheet (FY25).

What does the broker expect from tomorrow's AGM?

The market has forecast that Superloop will announce an estimated underlying EBITDA of $114 million for FY26. Macquarie thinks this will be more like $117 million.

This implies only +6% growth over FY26E vs the 2H25 run-rate, despite continuing customer growth & Origin adds, which we expect to have accelerated over the NBN speed changes in Sep-25 (1Q26).

"We view the [market] consensus estimate for FY26 Underlying EBITDA as a relatively accurate reflection of the market's estimates for the upcoming year," the broker said.

The ASX All Ords company has an ungeared balance sheet (FY25 Net Cash: A$30m), despite its most comparable NBN-provider peer having gearing (ABB FY25 Net Debt: A$128m).

Macquarie said that this raises the likelihood of potential M&A. 

We think the company has scope to buy multiple-accretive businesses (e.g., fibre networks due to their infrastructure-like moat & earnings) that are more capitally intense, given its current lower capital intensity than ABB (FY25 Capex/Sales: -42bps vs ABB). SLC could also acquire businesses that diversify its product suite (voice products like ABB's Symbio acquisition) or further customer book bolt-ons in its Consumer division.

The post Up 60% this year and tipped to storm even higher: Watch out for this ASX All Ords telco stock appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.