US President Donald Trump said Iran has agreed to several demands during further talks between the two nations.

Meanwhile, the US continues its blockade of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf, and Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire.

Amid this week's ongoing turmoil, brokers have reduced their ratings on six ASX 200 shares this week.

Let's take a look.

Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC)

The Lynas Rare Earths share price is $20.76, down 0.1% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 mining share has lifted 3.7%.

Morgan Stanley downgraded Lynas shares to a hold rating on Wednesday.

The broker increased its 12-month price target from $18.50 to $20.45.

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS)

The PLS Group share price is $5.98, up 4.8% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 lithium share has rocketed 28%.

Morgan Stanley downgraded this stock to a hold rating this week.

The broker shaved its 12-month price target from $5.30 to $5.25.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC)

The Westpac share price is $39.58, down 1.1% today.

Over the past month, the ASX 200 bank share has fallen 4.6%.

Morgans downgraded Westpac shares from a trim to sell rating this week.

The broker has a $34.04 target on the financial stock.

Morgans said:

WBC published a trading update ahead of its 1H26 result due for release on 5 May.

Implied revenues were weaker, costs lower, and credit impairment charges higher than our and market expectations.

We revise our rating from TRIM to SELL as total return expectations at current prices have fallen below the -10% trigger.

Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ)

The Bank of Queensland share price is $7.29, up 0.2%.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 financial share has lifted 5.3%.

Morgans downgraded the bank share to a hold rating on Wednesday.

The broker has a $7.39 target price on Bank of Queensland shares.

Morgans said:

We expect a material decline in 1H26 earnings, with recent share price strength driven by the expected capital return from the equipment finance whole-of-loan sale.

Share price strength has compressed total return potential to c.5%.

As such, we moderate our rating from ACCUMULATE to HOLD.

Seek Ltd (ASX: SEK)

The Seek share price is $15.54, up 1.1% today.

Over the past month, this ASX communications share has increased 6.4%.

Jefferies downgraded Seek shares to a hold rating this week.

The broker slashed its 12-month price target from $24.80 to $15.90.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

The Mineral Resources share price is $62.47, up 5.3% today.

The ASX 200 mining share is 13.3% higher over the past month.

Morgans lowered its rating from buy to accumulate this week.

The broker has a slightly reduced 12-month price target of $67.

Morgans said:

We have updated our 2H26 forecasts to reflect weather impacts in 3Q26, which we expect to have a modest effect on Onslow iron ore shipments, alongside minor increases to cost and capex assumptions driven by inflation in shipping and fuel.

We have also incorporated our revised LT iron ore price of US$85/t (previously US$80/t).

… we move to an ACCUMULATE rating (previously BUY) as recent share price strength has reduced valuation upside.

The post 6 ASX 200 shares downgraded by the experts this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

After surging 5.57% to $21.43 on Wednesday, the rare earths producer is now trading within touching distance of its 52-week high of $21.96. That peak was reached in October last year, highlighting the strength of the stock's recent momentum.

The move leaves Lynas valued at about $21.6 billion, with the share price up close to 179% over the past 12 months.

Much of that strength reflects growing investor focus on supply chain security and China's grip on critical minerals.

As heavy rare earths become a bigger geopolitical issue, Lynas' non-China processing capability is gaining strategic value.

Here's why the market may not be done with the rally yet.

Why investors are watching Lynas closely

Supply security is becoming the key issue for the market.

China still dominates global heavy rare earths processing, particularly for materials such as dysprosium and terbium. These are essential for electric vehicles, wind turbines, semiconductors, fighter jets, missile systems, and advanced electronics.

Recent commentary around Pentagon supply chain deadlines and China's export restrictions has put the spotlight on the limited number of companies capable of processing these materials outside China, with Lynas among the best placed to benefit.

The company's Malaysia processing facility is widely regarded as the largest commercial heavy rare earths separation facility outside China. It is also one of the only scaled operations capable of producing separated heavy rare earth oxides for Western customers.

That marks a major strategic shift because heavy rare earths separation has historically been almost fully controlled by China.

Lynas remains the only major commercial-scale heavy rare earths separator outside China, with production centred at its upgraded Malaysia facility.

Why the world can't function without rare earths

Rare earths are now essential to modern industry.

They are critical to the permanent magnets used across advanced manufacturing, defence systems, AI infrastructure, and the global energy transition. In many applications, there are still no practical substitutes that offer the same performance and durability.

If China further tightens supply, Western manufacturers could face serious shortages across defence, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing. That could slow production, raise costs, and accelerate the push toward reliable Western suppliers.

Foolish Takeaway

Lynas stands out because its relevance goes well beyond short-term commodity price swings. Its value lies in owning processing capability that is difficult to replicate, globally scarce, and likely to stay highly important for years.

Scarcity, scale, and geopolitical relevance continue to make Lynas a compelling stock to hold through market cycles as part of a diversified portfolio.

The post Why Lynas could be one of the ASX's biggest winners again today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

ASX mining shares have been the worst hit by the war in Iran, with the materials sector losing 15.3% of its value since the conflict began.

Some investors took profits this month after a strong run for ASX 200 mining shares, amid fears that higher diesel prices and potential shortages could hurt earnings and production for 2H FY26.

ASX 200 mining shares have also declined alongside metals prices, with gold down 17%, silver down 22%, lithium carbonate down 8%, and copper down 7% over the month. Iron ore has demonstrated resilience, rising 7% over the period to US$106 per tonne on Friday.

With the US and Iran still negotiating a 15-point plan for peace, it is hoped this war and the ensuing global oil shock will be over soon.

This may have motivated some investors to take up new or enhanced positions in ASX 200 mining shares last week, given the bright long-term outlook for the sector and the opportunity to buy the dip.

Reflecting the miners' fightback last week, the S&P/ASX 300 Metal & Mining Index (ASX: XMM) rose 4.4% while the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gained 1% to finish at 8,516.3 points.

Seven of the 11 market sectors finished in the green last week.

Let's recap.

ASX 200 mining shares fight back

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price increased 6.1% to close at $50.37 on Friday.

BHP shares reached a record $59.39 on 3 March before the war prompted investors to take profits.

Despite last week's rebound, the ASX 200's largest mining stock remains 13.8% lower over 30 days.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares lifted 4.3% to $153.23 last week, while Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) gained 6.5% to $20.19.

The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price soared 9.7% to $56.69.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) shares increased 1.3% to $4.03 per share.

ASX 200 copper share Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) lifted 1.8% to $15.88, while Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC) edged 0.6% lower to $10.14.

ASX 200 lithium shares had a ripsnorter of a week, with PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) rocketing 21.8% to close at $5.15 on Friday.

The Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price soared 20.9% to $1.77, and Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) gained 11.9% to 24 cents.

Nickel and lithium producer IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) lifted 16.5% to $7.93 per share.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) shares closed the week 2.7% higher at $10.08 apiece.

Bauxite and alumina producer Alcoa Corporation CDI (ASX: AAI) lifted 3.5% to $85.95 per share.

What about ASX gold shares?

The market's largest ASX 200 gold share, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) rose 0.3% to close at $18.55 on Friday.

The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price lifted 0.4% to $12.46, and Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) rose 3.1% to $146.85.

Among the mid-caps, Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) shares lifted 2.1% to $3.96, and Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) rose 1.1% to $6.26.

Gold and copper miner, Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP) fell 3.5% to $9.76.

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

The post ASX 200 mining shares rebound after March sell-off creates opportunities appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

ASX 200 energy shares have surged 17%, while materials stocks — incorporating mining shares– have been the worst hit, down 19%.

While the broader market has fallen heavily this month, many investors have responded in a surprising way.

Exclusive data from online investment platform Stake implies that some investors are buying the dip.

The data reveals the 10 most traded ASX 200 shares on the platform between 2 March and 18 March.

The strongest hint that a buying-the-dip trend is afoot is that only one ASX 200 energy share is among the 10 most traded stocks.

That's despite energy shares being the clear momentum trade this month.

Another strong hint is that several of the 10 most traded stocks have experienced significant declines over the past 12 months.

Perhaps some investors see long-term opportunity in these downtrodden stocks, some of which are trading at multi-year lows.

Prime examples include CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL), Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP), Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO), and Wisetech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC).

Yesterday, we looked at the first five of the top 10 most traded ASX 200 shares since the war began.

Here, we reveal the ASX 200 shares ranking six to 10 in that group, and ponder why they're among the most traded this month.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

The CSL share price closed at $139.39 yesterday, down 0.3%.

The market's largest healthcare stock has been the sixth most traded ASX 200 share on the Stake platform this month.

Long considered an ASX 200 blue chip, CSL has been in a downward spiral since mid-2024.

CSL shares have fallen 5% since the war in Iran began, and hit an eight-year low of $133.35 this month.

The CSL share price is down 45% over 12 months.

Multiple macro issues, such as falling global vaccination rates and company-specific challenges, have profoundly impacted CSL's valuation.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

The Northern Star Resources share price closed at $17.57 yesterday, up 2.1% for the day and down 2% over 12 months.

The gold stock has been the seventh most traded ASX 200 share on the Stake platform this month.

Northern Star shares have fallen 42% since the war began, although a second guidance downgrade from the miner contributed to the fall.

The 16% 30-day decline in the gold price has also contributed, as investors deleverage and US Treasury yields reach a 10-month high.

Many experts maintain ambitious forecasts for the gold price amid structural long-term tailwinds, primarily central bank buying.

PLS Group (ASX: PLS)

Formerly known as Pilbara Minerals, PLS Group is the market's largest ASX 200 pure-play lithium share.

PLS closed at $4.54 per share yesterday, up 6.6%, making it the second-fastest riser of the ASX 200 on Tuesday.

So far in March, PLS shares have tumbled 12.5% amid lithium prices holding up fairly well during the Iran conflict.

The lithium carbonate price has fallen by only 3.6% over 30 days.

Lithium has a bright outlook given the green energy transition and resurgent demand for electric vehicles (EVs).

There is no dip to buy with this stock, which has risen 141% over 12 months.

As the eighth most traded ASX 200 share on the Stake platform this month, it's likely investors are cashing in their gains.

Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC)

The Lynas Rare Earths share price closed at $19.56 on Tuesday, up 3.2%.

The ASX rare earths share is vastly outperforming its peers in the materials sector this month.

The Lynas share price has increased 3.1% since 28 February, and is up 172% over 12 months.

Strong interest in critical minerals and positive company news appear to have insulated Lynas shares from the broader market downturn.

Lynas announced the extension of a Japanese offtake agreement to 2038, and first production of samarium oxide at its Malaysia site.

Experts say the next mining boom will centre on critical materials with industrial applications tied to electrification and energy security.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

The Xero share price finished at $74.95 yesterday, down 2.2% for the day and down 54% over six months amid the broader tech downturn.

Xero shares have been smashed due to fears about AI's potential impact on SaaS businesses.

However, many experts think the sell-off has been overdone, and perhaps many Stake investors agree.

This might be why Xero was the 10th-most-traded ASX 200 share on the platform between 2 and 18 March.

Xero shares have fallen 9.9% since 28 February.

Foolish takeaway

Here are some words of wisdom from Kylie Purcell, Senior Markets Analyst at Stake, regarding the ASX 200's volatility this month:

For equity investors, this is another reminder of how unpredictable the markets can be during a geopolitical crisis.

Prices can swing sharply in both directions as more information emerges and these moments can become incredibly difficult to trade.

The key for investors is not to react to every headline or price swing and to remain diversified.

The post The war in Iran has inspired an unexpected ASX 200 market trend appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This is because I believe it is well worth keeping a close eye on short interest levels as high levels can sometimes be a sign that something isn't quite right with a company.

With that in mind, here are the 10 most shorted shares on the ASX this week according to ASIC:

• Domino's Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP) continues to be the most shorted ASX share with short interest of 16%. This is up week on week. Short sellers appear doubtful that the struggling pizza chain operator's turnaround strategy will be a success.
• Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX) has short interest of 15.3%, which is up again since last week. This radiopharmaceuticals company has been struggling with FDA approvals. It seems that short sellers don't believe regulators will be approving its therapies any time soon.
• Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) has seen its short interest rise again to 15.1%. This wine giant has been battling very tough trading conditions, with consumers focusing on value rather than its premium wines.
• Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG) has short interest of 13.4%, which is down week on week. This may be due to the burrito seller struggling the United States market, which was supposed to be its largest growth opportunity.
• Polynovo Ltd (ASX: PNV) has short interest of 13.3%, which is up again since last week. This medical device company's shares trade with a premium valuation.
• Nanosonics Ltd (ASX: NAN) has 11.7% of its shares held short, which is up week on week again. This infection prevention company's performance has been underwhelming in FY 2026, with profit before tax falling 3% during the first half.
• Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) has short interest of 11.2%, which is down since last week. Short sellers continue to close positions in the uranium producer, which was the most shorted ASX share for much of 2025.
• IDP Education Ltd (ASX: IEL) has 10.7% of its shares held short, which is down week on week again. Short sellers have been targeting this student placement and language testing company due to unfavourable changes to visa rules in key markets.
• Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) has short interest of 10.5%, which is flat week on week. This is likely due to valuation concerns after the rare earths producer's shares rocketed over the past 12 months.
• Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) has short interest of 10.3%, which is up week on week. There are concerns that the travel agent won't deliver on its revenue margin targets, especially given how the war in the Middle East could impact travel markets.

The post These are the 10 most shorted ASX shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In a research note sent to clients this week, Wilsons makes the case that rare earths elements "sit at the centre of several powerful structural trends, including electrification, automation and defence modernisation''.  

Large demand drivers

They say that permanent magnets represent the largest source of rare earths demand, "with applications spanning electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, robotics and industrial automation, as well as consumer electronics''.

They go on to say:

Key magnet rare earths include NdPr (neodymium and praseodymium), which are used to produce NdFeB (neodymium–iron–boron) permanent magnets, the dominant magnet technology in advanced electric motors. In certain applications, heavy rare earths such as DyTb (dysprosium and terbium) are added to improve performance at elevated temperatures.

Wilsons says demand for magnet rare earths is expected to triple over the next decade, underpinned by a combination of structural drivers including the energy transition, automation and robotics, and defence and rearmament.

There are also major barriers to entry on the mining and processing front, as they say:

Rare earth supply is structurally inelastic to price signals. Projects face high capital intensity, complex permitting and financing requirements, and long development timelines that typically span 10-15 years. Against this backdrop, and with demand rising strongly, several magnet rare earth elements, including NdPr and DyTb, are expected to face supply deficits over the near to medium-term. Beyond the global supply/demand balance, an increasingly important dynamic for Western producers is the emergence of an increasingly bifurcated rare earth market, where strategic demand for ex-China supply is supporting pricing premiums and long-term supply agreements for Western rare earths.

Wilsons says China dominates both the extraction and refining of rare earths, which is a strategic vulnerability for Western economies.

Local winners

Among the ASX-listed companies in the sector, Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) stands out, Wilsons says, as the largest rare earths producer outside of China.

Wilsons says Canaccord Genuity has a price target of $22 on the company, compared with the current price of $18.89.

Lynas just this week announced a major supply agreement with the US Department of War, involving US$96 million in rare earth oxide offtake and a US$110/kg floor price for NdPr.

Wilsons says Canaccord also has a buy rating on Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX: ILU) and a price target of $6.55 against the current price of $6.03.

Among the project developers, Canaccord has a speculative buy on both Brazilian Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: BRE) and Meteoric Resources Ltd (ASX: MEI).

The price target for Brazilian Rare Earths is $8, against the current price of $4.20, and for Meteoric Resources, 40 cents, compared with 16.5 cents.  

The post 4 cheap Aussie rare earths companies which are worth a look, according to Wilsons Advisory appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

During this time, the rare earths producer's shares have risen more than 150% to $19.68.

Let's see what one leading broker is saying about this high-flyer this week.

What is the broker saying?

The team at Wilsons is feeling positive on the company due to favourable rare earths supply-demand dynamics. It said:

The rare earth market is benefiting from a powerful combination of structural demand growth, constrained supply and increasing policy support for ex-China supply chains. These dynamics are expected to support elevated rare earth prices while also strengthening demand for, and the pricing outcomes of, Western supply in particular.

Against this backdrop, established ex-China producers are particularly well positioned to benefit from the emerging bifurcation of the rare earth market. In this context, Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) stands out as the world's largest producer of separated rare earth oxides outside of China and one of the few scaled ex-China producers positioned to capture stronger pricing across both light and heavy rare earths.

The broker highlights that Lynas is well-placed to benefit from a favourable policy backdrop for Western producers. It adds:

Lynas' status as the largest producer of rare earth oxides outside China positions the company to benefit from the favourable policy backdrop for Western producers amidst efforts to onshore critical minerals supply chains. This was evidenced in 2022 when Lynas was awarded a US$120m grant from the U.S. Department of War to develop a heavy rare earths (HRE) separation facility in Texas, although the ultimate development of the project remains uncertain.

Canaccord Genuity's view

Wilsons highlights that its research partner, Canaccord Genuity, has a positive view of the stock.

The broker currently rates Lynas shares as a buy with a $22.00 price target. Based on its current share price, this implies potential upside of approximately 12% for investors over the next 12 months.

Canaccord Genuity commented:

Sector leader with immediate exposure to pricing rally and potential upside from downstream integration into magnets. Possible beneficiary of Australian Critical Minerals Reserve floor pricing.

Overall, this could make it worth considering the miner if you are looking for exposure to this side of the resources sector.

The post Buy, hold, sell: What this leading broker is saying about Lynas shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

ASX mining shares have been the worst hit by the war in Iran, with the Metal & Mining Index falling 17.4% vs. a 7.7% drop for the ASX 300.

Fears of rising fuel costs and constrained supply are a major headwind for mining operations, potentially threatening production.

Additionally, ASX mining shares have been on a tear for 12 months, and the war may be prompting some investors to take profits now.

A global fuel crisis would hit almost every market sector, so an ongoing conflict in Iran could drag the whole market lower over time.

Kylie Purcell, Senior Markets Analyst for online investment platform Stake, said:

If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed and oil prices march upwards, we could see a sharper, sustained fall in global and Australian shares.

Meantime, here are three ASX mining shares with buy, hold, and sell ratings today.

Meeka Metals Ltd (ASX: MEK)

The Meeka Metals share price is 16 cents on Thursday, down 4.7% today but up 15.7% over the past year.

This week, Morgans maintained its buy rating on the ASX gold mining share with a 12-month price target of 39 cents.

The broker said:

MEK announced an expansion to 800ktpa (equivalent ounce basis) via ore sorting, requiring modest capex of A$6m with commissioning scheduled for Q1FY27. Ore sorting effectively near doubles Andy Well underground head grade, lifting our annual production forecasts by an average of 7% from FY27 onwards.

We maintain our BUY rating and A$0.39ps price target, acknowledging near-term production softness may weigh on the 3Q result ahead of an anticipated step-change in output in 4Q.

The ASX gold mining share will join the ASX 300 Index at the next rebalance, effective next Monday.

Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC)

The Lynas Rare Earths share price is $20.04, down 1.7% today but up 162% over the past year.

This week, Bell Potter upgraded its rating on this ASX rare earths mining share from sell to hold.

The broker also significantly increased its 12-month price target from $11.60 to $19 per share.

The rating change followed the miner's announcement that it has extended its Japan Australia Rare Earths offtake agreement to 2038.

Bell Potter said this effectively guaranteed revenue of around $775 million at the current exchange rate.

Today, Lynas announced it had produced its first samarium oxide at the Malaysia site.

Lunnon Metals Ltd (ASX: LM8)

The Lunnon Metals share price is 34 cents, down 9.5% today but up 60% over the past 12 months.

On The Bull this week, Nathan Lodge from Securities Vault put a sell rating on this ASX nickel mining share.

Lodge explained:

For companies, such as Lunnon Metals, exploration success isn't sufficient to drive value if the underlying commodity price environment remains weak.

The company's strategy centres on exploring and advancing sulphide nickel deposits in a region historically known for high grade discoveries and established mining infrastructure.

However, global nickel prices have been under sustained pressure as supply from Indonesia has increased rapidly, creating a structural oversupply in the market.

Lunnon Metals gave a presentation at the Euroz Hartleys Conference yesterday.

The post Buy, hold, sell: 3 ASX mining shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the time of writing, the Lynas share price is up 1.86% to $20.01. The stock has been a strong performer this year and is now up around 60% in 2026.

The gain comes even as the broader market moves lower. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 1.5% amid escalating developments in the Middle East.

Lynas produces first samarium oxide in Malaysia

In the announcement, Lynas confirmed it has successfully produced its first samarium oxide at its Malaysian operations.

This marks an important expansion of the company's heavy rare earths processing capability. Previously, Lynas produced separated neodymium and praseodymium products, which are widely used in permanent magnets.

With the addition of samarium oxide, Lynas is now increasing its range of separated heavy rare earth products.

Samarium is used in high-performance magnets, particularly in electronics and defence-related applications. The company noted that the product is already in demand from customers requiring advanced magnet materials.

How this fits into Lynas' long-term growth plan

The production milestone forms part of Lynas' broader plan to expand its heavy rare earths capabilities.

The company has previously outlined plans to develop heavy rare earth separation at its Malaysian facility as part of its long-term growth strategy.

This work sits within Lynas' "Towards 2030" plan, which is focused on increasing production and expanding its product mix.

Management confirmed that samarium oxide production was delivered ahead of schedule, marking the first step in this expansion.

Lynas is now working to add further heavy rare earth products, including dysprosium and terbium, which are used in high-performance magnets.

The company said initial heavy rare earths production capacity is expected to be available within the next 2 years.

Strong share price performance in 2026

Despite some volatility in recent months, Lynas shares have delivered strong gains over the past year.

The stock is up more than 160% over the past 12 months and around 60% since the start of 2026.

The company currently has a market capitalisation of approximately $20 billion and remains one of the largest rare earth producers outside China.

What to watch next

Today's update shows Lynas is moving ahead with its expansion plans.

The next focus will be progress in heavy rare earth production and updates on new products.

Progress on its expansion plans and new production capacity will be key in the months ahead.

The post This major update just sent Lynas shares higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Both companies experienced share price falls of more than 4.6%. 

Let's take a look at what happened 

Lynas Rare Earths crashes after deal 

Lynas Rare Earths is primarily involved in the exploration, development, and processing of rare earth minerals in Australia and Malaysia.

On Monday, Lynas Rare Earths signed a major US rare earth supply deal with the United States Department of War (DoW). 

Under this arrangement, approximately US$96 million will be allocated by the DoW to the purchase of Light and Heavy Rare Earth oxide products from Lynas. The floor price for supply of NdPr oxide will be US$110/kg. 

The proposed agreement covers deliveries over a four-year period.

Despite the news, Lynas shares are now down 6% since this week's open. 

Its share price remains up more than 60% year to date and 163% over the last 12 months. 

Yancoal hits a speedbump

Meanwhile, Yancoal shares fell 4.9% yesterday, and are also down 6% since Monday. 

The company is a coal miner involved in identifying, developing, and operating coal-related projects in Australia. 

It has a diversified mix of metallurgical and thermal coal mines. It owns, operates, or participates in 11 coal mines across NSW, Queensland, and Western Australia.

Coal prices have been surging so far in 2026, which has helped Yancoal shares rise more than 50% year to date. 

However, coal prices (USD/T) have hit significant volatility over the past week amidst conflict in the Middle East. 

Should investors buy the dip?

Recent analysis from brokers indicates Lynas Rare Earths may now be fully valued. 

Last week, Lynas signed a major long-term supply agreement with Japan Australia Rare Earths (JARE) guaranteeing revenue of approximately $775 million. 

This prompted adjustments from brokers on the outlook for the company. 

Despite this good news, an updated price target from Bell Potter now sits at $19.00. 

From yesterday's close of $20.02, that still indicates a downside of 5%. 

14 analysts' forecasts via TradingView paint a similar picture, with an average one year price target of $20.89. 

This indicates the current share price is close to fair value. 

Meanwhile, Yancoal shares closed trading yesterday at $7.57 each. 

5 analysts forecasts via TradingView have a one year average price target of $7.66. 

This suggests this week's pullback was warranted, and there is roughly 1% difference between yesterday's close and the average price target. 

The post Should you buy Lynas Rare Earths or Yancoal shares after yesterday's crash? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the time of writing, shares in Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX: ILU) are down around 4%, while shares in Arafura Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: ARU) have fallen 7%, but the Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) share price is holding up far better than its major peers.

At the time of writing, Lynas shares are trading marginally higher following a market announcement this morning.

Why are Lynas shares holding up?

The relative strength reflects an announcement released by the company earlier today.

Lynas announced a US$96 million rare earth supply framework with the United States Department of War, which included a floor price of US$110/kg for the supply of NdPr oxide.

NdPr oxide is a critical rare earth compound of Neodymium and Praseodymium. It's a critical resource in the production of various electronic devices ranging from smartphones to fighter jets (the latter being of more interest to the US Department of War).  

The floor price gives Lynas some downside protection in the event that prices for NdPr dip below US$110/kg, although current prices are above that point.

The move is a further step by the US and other Western governments to secure critical supply chains of rare earths minerals, and Lynas, one of the largest rare earths producers outside China, appears to be well-positioned.

Foolish bottom line

Lynas has already been one of the best-performing resources stocks on the ASX over the past year, with its share price surging more than 170% in the last 12 months.

After such a strong run, some volatility across the sector isn't surprising, but today's trading suggests that positive strategic news can still help Lynas outperform its peers, even when the broader rare earths sector is under pressure.

The post Rare earth stocks are tumbling today. Here's why the Lynas share price is holding up appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Lynas Rare Earths report?

• Signed a binding Letter of Intent with the United States Department of War (DoW) for rare earth supply.
• US$96 million allocated by the US Government for Light and Heavy Rare Earth oxide purchases from Lynas.
• NdPr oxide floor price set at US$110 per kilogram under the supply framework.
• The proposed agreement covers deliveries over a four-year period.
• This follows changes to an earlier agreement regarding the Seadrift, Texas facility.

What else do investors need to know?

Lynas' agreement with the US Department of War establishes a framework to finalise a longer-term supply arrangement. This move is designed to support US national security and strengthen supply chain resilience around essential rare earth materials.

The revised arrangement comes after mutual decisions to modify the original deal, reflecting uncertainty about progressing the Heavy Rare Earth processing facility at Seadrift, Texas. Lynas and the DoW are also in discussion about future supply needs for Heavy Rare Earth oxides.

What did Lynas Rare Earths management say?

CEO and Managing Director Amanda Lacaze said:

Lynas is pleased to sign this binding Letter of Intent with the U.S. Department of War. Through this agreement, the U.S. Defense Industrial Base will continue to have access to Light and Heavy Rare Earth oxides that are essential for modern manufacturing.

We thank the U.S. Government for working with Lynas to reach this mutually beneficial arrangement and look forward to finalising the definitive agreement in due course and continuing our productive engagement with the U.S. Government.

What's next for Lynas Rare Earths?

Looking ahead, Lynas and the DoW will work towards converting this Letter of Intent into a definitive long-term agreement. Further talks are underway for extended supply, including potentially expanding the scope for Heavy Rare Earth oxides.

Lynas continues to be a key player in global rare earth supply, and its focus remains on serving strategic customers while supporting critical industry needs, particularly in the US.

Lynas Rare Earths share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Lynas Rare Earths shares have risen 172%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 10% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Lynas Rare Earths announces US$96m US rare earth agreement appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This is because I believe it is well worth keeping a close eye on short interest levels as high levels can sometimes be a sign that something isn't quite right with a company.

With that in mind, here are the 10 most shorted shares on the ASX this week according to ASIC:

• Domino's Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP) is the most shorted ASX share with short interest of 15.6%. It appears that short sellers believe the struggling pizza chain operator's turnaround strategy will not be a success.
• Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) has seen its short interest rise to 14.8%. This wine giant has been battling very tough trading conditions. Short sellers may not believe a change is coming in the near term.
• Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX) has short interest of 14.2%, which is up since last week. This radiopharmaceuticals company has been facing delays with FDA approvals. Short sellers don't appear confident that regulators will be approving its therapies any time soon.
• Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG) has short interest of 13.8%, which is up week on week. This burrito seller continues to struggle and make a loss in the United States market, which was supposed to be its largest growth opportunity.
• Polynovo Ltd (ASX: PNV) has short interest of 13%, which is up since last week. This medical device company's shares trade on sky-high earnings multiples.
• Nanosonics Ltd (ASX: NAN) has 11.4% of its shares held short, which is up week on week. Last month, this infection prevention company posted a 3% decline in profit before tax during the first half.
• Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) has short interest of 11.4%, which is down significantly since last week. With the uranium producer's shares down 65% since the start of July on production concerns, some short sellers may be buying back shares to lock in their gains.
• IDP Education Ltd (ASX: IEL) has 10.8% of its shares held short, which is down week on week. This student placement and language testing company has been battling changes to visa rules in key markets.
• Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) has short interest of 10.5%, which is up since last week. This may be due to valuation concerns and the rare earths producer's shares rocketed over the past 12 months.
• Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) has short interest of 9.7%, which is down week on week. There are concerns that the travel agent won't deliver on its revenue margin targets.

The post These are the 10 most shorted ASX shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Two of this week's top performers earn their keep digging coal from the ground. The third is focused on rare earths.

Which high-performing stocks am I talking about?

Read on!

ASX 200 stocks riding the surging coal price

The two ASX coal shares on my top performer list this week are Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) and Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL).

Yancoal shares are really shooting the lights out. Shares in the ASX 200 coal stock closed last Friday trading for $6.33. At the time of writing today, shares are swapping hands for $7.96 apiece. That puts the Yancoal share price up 25.7% in this week's slumping market.

Whitehaven shares are also enjoying a strong run. Whitehaven shares closed last week at $8.48 and are currently trading for $9.38 each, up 10.6%.

Both miners have enjoyed improving investor sentiment amid the surging coal price. Spurred by energy concerns as the Middle East conflict heats up, the thermal coal price is ending the week at around US$139 per tonne. That's up some 19% in March.

There was no price-sensitive news out from Yancoal this week. But Whitehaven shares got an added boost on Thursday, closing the day up 6.7%, after the ASX 200 stock reported that it had received public credit ratings from S&P, Fitch, and Moody's.

Whitehaven's investment grade ratings are expected to offer the miner improved access to global debt capital markets.

Which brings us to…

Also smashing the benchmark this week

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) shares are also pleasing investors this week.

Lynas shares closed last Friday trading for $18.33. In late afternoon trade today, shares are swapping hands for $20.27. That sees this ASX 200 stock up 10.8% for the week, racing ahead of the benchmark's loss.

All of those gains, and then some, were delivered on Wednesday, 11 March.

Lynas shares closed up a whopping 16.2% on the day after the miner reported on an amended supply agreement with Japan Australia Rare Earths (JARE).

The new agreement extends JARE's offtake agreement of 5,000 tonnes per year of NdPr (neodymium and praseodymium) through to 2038. Lynas will receive a minimum of US$110 per kilogram for those rare earths.

JARE also committed to buying 50% of all Heavy Rare Earth (HRE) oxides produced by the ASX 200 stock.

"We are delighted that the revised 12-year availability and supply agreement with JARE will support both Japanese industry and the continued growth and development of Lynas," Lynas CEO Amanda Lacaze said.

The post 3 ASX 200 stocks storming higher in this week's slumping market appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

By the time the markets closed today, the ASX 200 had dropped a nasty 1.31%, leaving the index at a flat 8,629 points.

This rather horrid day for Australian shares follows a more temperate morning up on Wall Street.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) was punished, but by a relatively tamer 0.61%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) fared far better, recording a modest rise of 0.084%.

But let's return to the local markets now for an analysis of how the different ASX sectors fared amid today's tough trading conditions.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

During this time, the rare earths producer's shares are up an incredible 190%.

Does this make them overvalued? Let's see what analysts at Bell Potter are saying about the high-flyer.

What is the broker saying?

Bell Potter has had a sudden change of tune on the Lynas share price.

After warning that its shares were severely overvalued and in danger of crashing deep into the red, the broker now feels that they are about fair value.

The catalyst for this appears to have been an announcement this week relating to its JARE offtake agreement. It explains:

LYC announced after market it had extended the JARE (Japan Australia Rare Earths B.V.) offtake agreement to 2038. The extended agreement allows for deliveries of up to 7,200tpa NdPr, subject to no opportunity loss to LYC, with firm commitments of 5,000tpa. In addition to the NdPr sales, LYC agrees to sell up to 75% of all Heavy Rare Earth (HRE) oxides produced at Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) to Japan, with firm commitments of 50%, at prices and terms which represent no opportunity loss for LYC.

The pricing regime under which the agreement has been struck sets a floor price of US$110/kg, with joint participation in prices above US$150/kg. Should LYC achieve a price in excess of US$150/kg for NdPr, they agree to share 30% of the upside with JARE to a maximum of US$10m per calendar year. The updated agreement is subject to an annual review process.

Bell Potter highlights that this effectively means that Lynas is guaranteed revenue of approximately $775 million from the arrangement. It adds:

This effectively guarantees revenue of ~A$775m at the current exchange rate for NdPr and accounts for 48% of the targeted production rate of 10.5ktpa. We have calendarized the Visible Alpha consensus estimates over the next three years to work out the incremental revenue from the introduction of the price floor on the NdPr only. The result is a 7% increase in Revenue on consensus estimates for CY26, and 3% for CY27 and CY28.

In light of this, the broker has upgraded its earnings estimates materially through to FY 2028, which has had a major impact on its valuation.

Lynas share price gets valuation boost

According to the note, Bell Potter has upgraded Lynas' shares to a hold rating with a price target of $19.00. This is up 64% from its previous price target of $11.60.

Commenting on its upgrade, the broker said:

We continue to see risks around the valuation premium and multiple, which in our opinion are pricing in perfection in an imperfect world. However, we note that the announcement safeguards a substantial portion of revenue and earnings, reducing the impact of adverse price swings should additional supply enter the market over the coming years and somewhat justifying that premium. Our recommendation shifts from Sell to Hold and our TP increases to $19.00/sh (previously $11.60/sh).

The post Why this broker just boosted its Lynas share price valuation by 60% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Here are two ASX stocks that analysts have recently rated as a buy, and one they've recommended to sell.

Why broker says to buy NextDC shares

NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT) owns a huge network of data centres for cloud computing, telecommunications, and AI workloads, which it is rapidly expanding. The company also owns power and cooling infrastructure and assists with online security. 

Given that demand for data usage is expected to rise, many analysts are bullish on the outlook for the company's share price.  

Late last month, NextDC posted strong first-half FY26 earnings and said it expects strong demand to support even more growth over the remainder of the year. 

Analysts at EnviroInvest agree that the outlook for the data centre operator is positive and named it as a buy earlier this week.

The investment company was pleased with the company's latest results and said it believes NextDC's structural demand and execution momentum support further upside this year.

At the time of writing, the ASX stock is trading at $12.66 a piece.

Why broker says to buy Flight Centre shares

Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) has lost 21.97% of its value so far in 2026, after slower profit growth and geopolitical tensions put pressure on the company's stock.

But the company posted its FY26 half-year report late last month, blowing expectations out of the water.

The team at UBS said the ASX stock's profit before tax came in 5% above market expectations. The broker also said there are a number of positives to come out of the result, which suggests that the company's shares are trading very cheaply. 

The business has seen a strong start to the year for both leisure and corporate, with both segments on track for year-over-year profit growth.

UBS rates Flight Centre shares as a buy with a $16.45 target price.

At the time of writing, the ASX travel stock is trading at $11.71 a piece.

Why broker says to sell Lynas shares

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) shares rocketed higher on Wednesday, surging 16% to $20.59, off the back of an update to its major long-term supply agreement with Japan Australia Rare Earths (JARE).

Under the revised agreement, which will be in place until 2038, JARE has committed to purchasing 5,000 tonnes per year of NdPr (neodymium and praseodymium) and 50% of all heavy rare earth oxides produced by Lynas for the Japanese market.

Sales will be based on a market-referenced price with a floor of US$110 per kilogram of NdPr. 

Investors were clearly thrilled with the update, but some analysts think that the company's stock is running ahead of its true value.

Bell Potter believes the run has gone too far and that Lynas shares now reflect overly optimistic long-term rare earths prices.

The broker has a sell rating and a 12-month price target of $11.60. 

At the time of writing, the ASX stock is trading at $20.70 a piece.

The post 2 ASX stocks to buy and 1 to sell appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Lynas shares continued a remarkable run that has seen the stock climb roughly 192% over the past 12 months and about 65% since the start of 2026.

Here's why Lynas shares were racing higher Wednesday — and whether the rally could continue.

Long-term Japanese supply deal

Lynas shares soared after the company announced a major long-term supply agreement with Japanese industry, locking in demand for its rare earth products. 

Under the deal, Japan will secure access to Lynas' rare earth materials for 12 years. The agreement also includes a minimum pricing structure, designed to protect producers from aggressive price undercutting in the market. 

Investors appear to have welcomed the move. Long-term supply contracts provide greater revenue visibility and reinforce Lynas' position as a critical supplier for countries looking to reduce their reliance on Chinese rare earth processing.

Given the strategic nature of these materials, which are essential for EV motors, wind turbines, and defence systems, the deal strengthens Lynas' geopolitical relevance and commercial outlook.

Strengths behind the Lynas rally

A major strength for Lynas is its unique strategic position in the global rare earth supply chain. China dominates roughly 90% of rare earth processing capacity, meaning Western governments are increasingly keen to secure alternative suppliers. 

As one of the few major rare earth producers outside China, Lynas has found itself in a strategic sweet spot. This has driven strong policy support and investment into companies like Lynas, which operates the Mt Weld mine in Western Australia and processing facilities in Malaysia and the US.

Demand trends also look favourable. Prices for key rare earth metals such as neodymium and praseodymium have climbed to multi-year highs amid tight supply and rising demand from electric vehicles and clean-energy technologies. 

In addition, analysts expect the company's financial performance to accelerate in the coming years. Forecasts suggest earnings growth of around 40% per year, reflecting higher production volumes and stronger pricing. 

These tailwinds have helped fuel the extraordinary performance of Lynas shares investors have witnessed over the past year.

Risks investors should watch

Despite the strong momentum, Lynas is not without risks.

Rare earth prices can be extremely volatile, and any sharp fall could quickly weigh on earnings. The sector is also heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions and policy changes, which can shift market dynamics rapidly.

Operational risks remain another factor. Mining and processing rare earths is technically complex, and disruptions or cost blowouts at facilities could impact profitability.

What next for Lynas shares?

Valuation risk is emerging after the recent rally. Some brokers are warning Lynas shares could be running ahead of fundamentals if growth expectations fail to materialise.

As a result, Bell Potter believes the run has gone too far and that Lynas shares now reflect overly optimistic long-term rare earth prices.

The broker has a sell rating and a 12-month price target of $11.60. This suggests a 44% downside from current price levels.

The post Up 192%, where to from here for Lynas shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 set to fall

The Australian share market looks set to fall on Thursday following a mixed night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 49 points or 0.55% lower this morning. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is down 0.6%, the S&P 500 is down 0.1% and the Nasdaq is up 0.1%.

Collins Foods shares on watch

Collins Foods Ltd (ASX: CKF) shares will be on watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday. After the market close on Wednesday, the quick service restaurant operator announced an acceleration of its expansion in Germany. This has seen the company acquire eight KFC restaurants in Bavaria, centred around Munich, increasing its presence and scale in the country. The company also revealed that Australian same store sales are up 3.2% so far in the second half and 2.7% year to date.

Oil prices jump

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) will be on watch on Thursday after oil prices jumped overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 5.1% to US$87.74 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 5% to US$92.23 a barrel. Traders were buying oil despite news that the IEA is releasing 400 million barrels of stockpiled oil.

Lynas shares upgraded

Bell Potter is no longer bearish on Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC). This morning, the broker has finally taken its sell rating off the rare earths producer's shares and upgraded them to a hold rating with a vastly improved price target of $19.00 (from $11.60). It said: "We continue to see risks around the valuation premium and multiple, which in our opinion are pricing in perfection in an imperfect world. However, we note that the announcement safeguards a substantial portion of revenue and earnings, reducing the impact of adverse price swings should additional supply enter the market over the coming years and somewhat justifying that premium."

Gold price falls

ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a poor session on Thursday after the gold price dropped overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 1.1% to US$5,187.4 an ounce. A stronger US dollar and inflation concerns weighed on the precious metal.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

By the time the markets closed this Wednesday, the ASX 200 had risen by another 0.59% after staying in green territory all session, leaving the index at 8,743.5 points. 

This happy hump day for the local markets comes after a nervous morning over on Wall Street.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) was volatile, but ended up closing 0.072% lower.

Things were a bit better for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC), though, which overcame its own shakiness to finish 0.0051% higher.

But let's get back to the Australian share market now and see what was happening amongst the various ASX sectors today.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.