ASX gold shares have tumbled since the war in Iran began, with the gold price slumping to nearly US$4,300 per ounce today.
The S&P/ASX All Ords Gold Index (ASX: XGD) has fallen 31% since 28 February, when Israel and the US launched strikes on Iran.
By comparison, the S&P/ASX All Ords Index (ASX: XAO) has fallen nearly 9% amid investors worrying about higher oil and gas prices.
The gold price is now down 13.2% over the past week and down 15.8% over 30 days as the Middle East conflict continues.
For now, concern about a potential resurgence in inflation has overridden gold's traditional safe-haven appeal.
Analysts from Trading Economics explain:
Gold had dropped as much as 25% from its March peak as rising energy prices fueled inflation concerns and bolstered expectations of interest rate hikes.
In a blog, Zaner Precious Metals said the Iran conflict had triggered broad market deleveraging and a stronger US dollar.
This has pushed US Treasury bond yields close to a 10-month high, weakening the appeal of non-yielding precious metals like gold.
Zaner said markets are tilted toward a 'risk-off' temperament, commenting:
That risk aversion is underpinning the dollar, as the trade seeks maximum liquidity.
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New expert ratings on ASX gold shares
The market's largest ASX gold share, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), has fallen 42% since 28 February to $17.60 today.
A second guidance downgrade from the miner has contributed to the stock's tumble.
Ord Minnett reckons this one is a buy.
Last week, the broker reiterated its buy rating on Northern Star but slashed its 12-month share price target from $29.70 to $23.70.
JP Morgan downgraded the ASX gold share to a hold rating with a $24 target.
The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price has fallen 28% since 28 February to $11.93 on Tuesday.
Ord Minnett upgraded its rating on Evolution shares to a buy last week, with a target of $13.10.
JP Morgan also upgraded Evolution shares to a buy rating with a more ambitious target of $15.50.
Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) shares have fallen 22% since the war began to $138.21 at the time of writing.
Ord Minnett has reiterated its buy rating on Newmont shares but reduced its target from $215 to $205.
What about mid caps and small caps?
Mid-cap ASX gold share, Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS), has lost a quarter of its value since 28 February.
Today, Ramelius Resources shares are trading at $3.45 apiece.
Last week, UBS maintained its hold rating on Ramelius Resources shares with a 12-month target of $5.20.
The Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP) share price has fallen 32% since the war began to $9.35 today.
On The Bull this week, Philippe Bui from Medallion Financial Group put a hold rating on Greatland Resources shares.
Bui said:
Given gold prices remain strong amid company development progressing steadily, GGP is moving closer to becoming a meaningful producer.
Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) shares have fallen 38% since 28 February to $3.67 apiece.
Last week, Ord Minnett reiterated its buy rating on Vault Minerals shares with a price target of $7.40.
UBS also retained its buy rating and lifted its target slightly to $7.60.
