The 2025 Macquarie Conference wrapped up on Thursday 8 May.
The conference was held in Sydney, with 117 companies presenting over three days.
The Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) analysts at the conference said that those company updates were better than they had expected. They noted that the average ASX stock outperformed by 1.4% on the day it presented.
Here are three key takeaways from the Macquarie Conference.
ASX 200 banks in focus at the Macquarie Conference
Attendees gleaned some valuable insights into the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank stocks.
The broker noted, "Bank reporting season typically overlaps with the Macquarie Conference, but we did have Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) present at the conference."
According to the analysts, major bank results from Westpac, ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) "again showed lower-than-expected impairments, highlighting that the economy still remains in a relatively good position".
The analysts added:
The contrast here was Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO), which had a downgrade ahead of the conference, in part due to higher bad debts. Rate cuts will be a margin headwind for banks, and on Macquarie modelling, the headwinds from RBA cuts will be less for NAB, and greater for WBC.
Trump tariffs roiling uncertainty at the Macquarie Conference
United States President Donald Trump's global tariffs were a focus and still an area of uncertainty at the Macquarie Conference. Though the broker said that Australia is seen as less impacted, adding that Australia is expected to be supported by RBA interest rate cuts.
"The Macquarie Conference was valuable as the first opportunity for many to hear from a wide range of companies about potential tariff impacts," the broker said.
According to Macquarie's analysts:
Some have already shifted supply chains to mitigate tariffs (Reliance Worldwide Corp Ltd (ASX: RWC), Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG)), while others are ready to adjust if they become subject to tariffs (CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL), Codan Ltd (ASX: CDA)).
Macquarie said that the prospect of goods deflation from higher China imports may be positive for retailers like Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH), Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW), and Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK). But this could mean more competition for companies like Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD).
Tariffs could also impact ASX 200 travel stocks and real estate companies.
The analysts said:
Tariff-related uncertainty and the hit to confidence was a factor in travel downgrades (Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT), Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD)) and could also drive delays to investment projects (Worley Ltd (ASX: WOR)).
Capital inflows into real estate (GPT Group (ASX: GPT), Stockland Corp Ltd (ASX: SGP)) were also impacted by tariff uncertainties, although Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC) noted a rotation from the US to Australia.
How is Macquarie positioning?
With the Macquarie Conference done and dusted, the company's analysts said, "Investor views at the conference were mixed, with some hoping the worst is over, while others are waiting for the other shoe to drop."
As for Macquarie's own strategy portfolio, the broker said it is overweight on some of the defensives (CSL, Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX: RHC), Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL), Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM)) and rate-cut beneficiaries (Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR), GPT Group, APA Group (ASX: APA), Transurban Group (ASX: TCL)) that presented.
Macquarie said it is overweight on these defensive ASX 200 stocks "as we think markets could test April lows".
