This comes as weakness across the real estate sector continues following a global sell-off caused by the Middle East crisis.

In early afternoon trade, the Mirvac share price is down 0.29% to $1.71. Earlier in the session, the stock fell as low as $1.685, marking its weakest intraday level since September 2015.

That leaves Mirvac shares down 20% in 2026, extending what has become a persistent de-rating for the ASX property stock.

Let's take a closer look at what may be keeping pressure.

The rate backdrop is still working against property stocks

Mirvac's latest weakness still appears to be driven more by broader sector conditions.

Listed property stocks remain highly sensitive to interest rate expectations. That pressure has stayed elevated as bond yields remain high and inflation risks continue to cloud the rate outlook.

Mirvac is especially exposed because it spans both residential development and commercial property, with earnings linked to apartment settlements as well as office and retail asset values.

This leaves the stock vulnerable whenever markets push rate cuts further out, or long-term yields move higher.

Its February half-year result was still solid, with operating profit after tax up 5% to $248 million, residential sales rising 38%, and net tangible assets increasing to $2.26 per stapled security. The interim distribution also lifted to 4.7 cents.

Management also reaffirmed FY26 guidance for operating earnings of 12.8 cents to 13 cents per security and distributions of 9.5 cents, supported by expected residential settlements of 2,000 to 2,300 lots.

That suggests the share price weakness is still more about valuation pressure across the REIT sector.

The valuation backdrop is starting to look more interesting

At $1.71, Mirvac is now trading at a notable discount to its latest book value per share of $2.329.

The stock is also offering a trailing yield above 5%, based on annual distributions of 9.2 cents.

That mix of discounted asset backing and income appeal is likely keeping value-focused investors interested, even while price momentum remains weak.

For now, the chart still suggests the market is applying a larger risk premium to office exposure, residential settlements, and businesses closely tied to the path of interest rates.

With the shares now back at levels last seen more than a decade ago, Mirvac is moving back onto the radar for ASX property investors.

The post Mirvac shares sink to their lowest level since 2015. Is this ASX property giant back on the radar? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Three ASX dividend shares stand out for their mix of appealing income, asset backing, and recovery potential: Dexus (ASX:DXS), Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR), and Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC). 

Dexus: premium assets, premium yield

Dexus remains one of the clearest contrarian income plays on the ASX after appearing on one of the latest fresh 52-week lows scan. Its biggest strength is institutional-grade office, industrial, healthcare, and infrastructure exposure, backed by a vast $51.5 billion real assets platform. 

The market's main concern is obvious: CBD office valuations and leasing demand. Higher bond yields and softer white-collar occupancy trends continue to weigh on sentiment, which explains why the ASX dividend share remains under pressure.

Still, the distribution story remains attractive. Dexus recently confirmed its February 2026 distribution payment, continuing its typical half-year payout structure, and the forward yield sits around 6.3% to 6.6% at current prices. 

For patient investors, this is the classic "buy when office fear peaks" setup.

Mirvac Group: diversified and less office-dependent

Mirvac offers a slightly different flavour of income. This ASX dividend share has also been dragged toward yearly lows with the broader REIT sector. Its strength lies in diversification across residential development, retail, industrial, and premium office assets. That broader earnings mix can make it less vulnerable than pure office landlords.

The risk, however, is that apartment settlements and commercial valuations are both highly rate-sensitive. If inflation remains sticky, the recovery could take longer than bulls hope.

On income, Mirvac's payout policy has historically been based on operating earnings and cash generation from both rent and development profits, usually paid in two instalments annually.

The yield around these levels is generally 5.5% to 6%, which becomes especially attractive when the stock is trading near 12-month lows. 

Charter Hall Group: the defensive income specialist

For pure passive income, Charter Hall may be the standout of the trio.  

The biggest strength of this ASX dividend share is right in the name: long weighted average lease expiry (WALE). This means rental income is typically locked in for years with blue-chip tenants. That makes distributions more predictable than most office-heavy REITs.

The key risk is that higher interest costs compress property values and slow external growth, even when rent collections remain stable.

The payout policy of this ASX dividend share is built around steady quarterly or semi-annual rental-backed distributions. Dividend yields can push north of 7% near cyclical lows, making it the most compelling pure-income pick of the three.

The post 3 ASX dividend shares near 52-week lows with very tempting yields appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Mirvac Group report?

• EBIT of $398 million, up 10% from 1H25
• Operating profit after tax of $248 million, up 5% on the prior year
• Statutory profit of $319 million, a significant increase from $1 million in 1H25
• Half-year distribution of 4.7 cents per security, up from 4.5cpss
• Net tangible assets rose to $2.30 per security (from $2.26 at FY25)
• Residential sales surged 38%, with 1,304 lots exchanged and settlements up 22%

What else do investors need to know?

Mirvac continued its momentum in the Living segment, restocking its residential pipeline with around 2,300 new lots and settling 835 lots for the half. The business also secured two new land lease sites and completed strong volumes in both settlements and sales, signalling ongoing demand for quality housing.

On the capital front, Mirvac entered a notable joint venture with Mitsubishi Estate to deliver the Harbourside project in Sydney, raising approximately $1 billion. The company's $1.7 billion LIV Mirvac Build to Rent Fund also saw recapitalisation, with major investor Australian Retirement Trust acquiring a significant stake.

Mirvac's commercial portfolio remained resilient, reporting high occupancy (98%) and 4.4% like-for-like net operating income growth. The group's strong balance sheet featured headline gearing of 25.8% and available liquidity of about $1.1 billion.

What did Mirvac Group management say?

Mirvac's CEO & Managing Director, Campbell Hanan, said:

We delivered a strong performance across all parts of the business in the first half of FY26, underpinned by the continued execution of our strategy. Positive momentum saw residential sales increase 38 per cent year-on-year, with settlements up 22 per cent and a recovery in gross margins. The significant restocking of our development pipeline is also in line with our focus on Living and Premium-grade Office, and, coupled with a number of key launches and completions in the coming 18 months, provides excellent future earnings visibility.

What's next for Mirvac Group?

Mirvac has reaffirmed its FY26 guidance, targeting operating earnings of 12.8 to 13.0 cents per security and distributions of 9.5 cents, subject to key assumptions. The business expects continued residential momentum, with targets for 2,000 to 2,300 lot settlements in FY26 and a focus on growing future pipeline projects.

Ongoing investment in high-quality, well-located commercial assets and strategic capital partnerships are anticipated to strengthen the group's income streams and support earnings growth. Management sees recent margin restoration and robust sales as providing good visibility and near-term confidence.

Mirvac Group share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Mirvac Group shares have declined 11%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 6% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Mirvac Group posts 5% profit growth, expands pipeline in 1H26 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The market is taking a breather after a strong week that saw the ASX 200 lift to a 14-week high of 9,105 points.

Earnings season is well underway, with strong results from several majors pushing the ASX 200 3.84% higher by Thursday's close.

On Wednesday, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) surprised the market with a 6% cash profit lift for 1H FY26.

That saw CBA shares snatch the crown as the largest ASX 200 stock by market cap back from BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) on Thursday.

CBA declared a fully-franked interim dividend of $2.35 per share, up 4% from 1H FY25, with the ex-dividend date next Wednesday.

Check out other ASX 200 shares going ex-dividend next week here.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) also surprised with a $1.94 billion cash profit in 1Q FY26, up 75% on the 2H FY25 quarterly average.

That news sent ANZ shares to a record high of $40.95 today.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) also impressed with a 41% lift in statutory profit to $714.4 million for 1H FY26.

Northern Star will pay a fully-franked interim dividend of 25 cents per share.

The positive result sent the largest gold miner on the ASX 200 to a record high of $30.21 per share yesterday.

While some ASX 200 shares are hitting record highs, many are skirting new lows this week.

ASX 200 shares at 52-week lows on Friday

Scores of ASX 200 shares are hitting multi-year lows today.

Here is a sample of them.

JB Hi‑Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH)

The JB Hi‑Fi Ltd share price fell 3.9% to an 18-month low of $76.34 on Friday.

The popular retailer is due to release its earnings report on Monday, according to our calendar.

Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW)

Temple & Webster shares dipped 5.2% to a two-year low of $7.24.

This ASX 200 retail share got smashed this week after dropping its 1H FY26 report.

Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH)

The Cochlear share price has disintegrated on Friday after the release of the company's 1H FY26 results.

The ASX 200 healthcare share nosedived 17.8% to a two-and-a-half-year low of $202.21.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

The Xero share price tumbled 5.4% to a three-year low of $72.26 on Friday.

Tech shares are having a rough trot, particularly those in the software-as-a-service (SaaS) space, due to fears that AI will replace them.

The S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) is down 24% in the year to date.

Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME)

Pro Medicus shares dived 8.3% to a two-and-a-half-year low of $118.23 on Friday.

Investors thrashed this ASX 200 healthcare share despite the company reporting record results this week.

Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL)

Aristocrat Leisure shares dipped 4.9% to an 18-month low of $48.48 on Friday.

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC)

Today, the WiseTech share price tanked 14.7% to a three-and-a-half-year low of $40.59.

Wisetech will release its earnings report on Wednesday.

Technology One Ltd (ASX: TNE)

TechnologyOne shares dropped 7.1% to an 18-month low of $20.17 today.

Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX)

The Telix Pharmaceuticals share price fell 2.8% to a two-year low of $8.83.

Guzman y Gomez (ASX: GYG)

Guzman y Gomez shares dropped 8.7% to a record low of $18.58 on Friday.

Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR)

The Mirvac Group share price fell 1.6% to a 52-week low of $1.90.

The ASX 200 property share will be on watch next Wednesday when the company releases its earnings report.

Dexus (ASX: DXS)

This ASX 200 REIT share fell 2.5% to a 52-week low of $6.16 on Friday.

Objective Corporation Ltd (ASX: OCL)

The Objective Corporation share price fell 4% to a two-year low of $12.88 today.

The post 13 ASX 200 shares hit multi-year lows as the market takes a breather appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Tuesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to edge higher

The Australian share market looks set to edge higher on Tuesday despite a poor start to the week on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 2 points higher. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is down 0.4%, the S&P 500 is 0.3% lower, and the Nasdaq is down 0.45%.

Oil prices jump

It could be a good session for ASX 200 energy shares Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) after oil prices jumped overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 2.4% to US$58.12 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 2.15% to US$61.95 a barrel. Traders were buying oil after tensions flared in Yemen.

Ex-dividend day

Today is the day that a large number of shares go ex-dividend for their latest quarterly payouts. Among the ASX 200 shares that are going ex-dividend are APA Group (ASX: APA), Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC), Goodman Group (ASX: GMG), Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR), Stockland Corporation Ltd (ASX: SGP), and Transurban Group (ASX: TCL).

Gold price sinks

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) could have a tough session on Tuesday after the gold price crashed overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 4.4% to US$4,351.4 an ounce. This may have been driven by profit-taking from traders after strong gains this month.

NextDC shares on watch

Nextdc Ltd (ASX: NXT) shares will be on watch today after some big news in the data centre industry. Overnight, Japan's SoftBank revealed that it has agreed to buy data centre investment firm DigitalBridge for US$4 billion. This is part of SoftBank's artificial intelligence push. Masayoshi Son, Chairman and CEO of SoftBank, said: "DigitalBridge is a leader in digital infrastructure, and this acquisition will strengthen the foundation for next-generation AI data centers, advance our vision to become a leading ASI platform provider, and help unlock breakthroughs that move humanity forward."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Mirvac Group report?

• Distribution of 4.7 cents per stapled security, unfranked
• Relates to the six-month period ending 31 December 2025
• Date of record: 31 December 2025
• Ex-date: 30 December 2025
• Payment date: 26 February 2026
• Distribution Reinvestment Plan (DRP) available to eligible securityholders

What else do investors need to know?

Mirvac's announced distribution is unfranked and paid solely from its Property Trust arm, meaning there's no dividend from Mirvac Limited itself this period. Securityholders can choose to receive payment in Australian or New Zealand dollars, depending on their nominated bank account.

Investors on the New Zealand register will automatically receive their payment in NZD, with the exchange rate to be set and announced on 18 February 2026. The company's dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) applies to this distribution, giving shareholders the option to receive additional securities instead of cash.

What's next for Mirvac Group?

Looking ahead, Mirvac will release further details on the distribution's tax components closer to the payment date, with information to be made available on its investor centre website. The group continues to return value to its securityholders while providing flexibility through its multi-currency and DRP arrangements.

Future distributions will depend on trust income and ongoing operating conditions. Shareholders can update their bank or currency details before the record date to ensure smooth payment processing.

Mirvac Group share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Mirvac Group shares have risen 5%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 3% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Mirvac Group announces 4.7c December 2025 distribution appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Which is why we were quick to snap up the report on the outlook for Aussie real estate investment trusts, just out from Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG).

In analysing Australia's listed property sector, Macquarie reviewed the fourth quarter (4Q 2025) commercial property data from JLL.

And the broker named its four key picks among the ASX REITs, all of which are tipped to outperform.

What's happening in Australia's commercial property markets

On the retail front, Macquarie maintained a neutral rating on ASX REITs with strong retail exposure.

The broker noted that retail rents were broadly stable, while Black Fortnight data was mixed.

"We view the retail sector as fully valued, with most groups trading close to or at a premium to NTA," Macquarie said.

Industrial rents were on the rise, however, although the supply pipeline was said to remain elevated.

According to the broker:

Market fundamentals for industrial improved in 4Q25, with modest face rental growth combined with flat to declining incentives… The 2025 supply pipeline is elevated at c. +27% above the longrun average with 2026/27 supply expected to be higher.

On the office front, Macquarie said the data points continue to recover.

"Net absorption was positive across all major cities, accelerating at a national level and running at 1.8x the quarterly and annual average," Macquarie said. "We advocate for a rotation into office based on an anticipated gradual recovery in income fundamentals and stocks trading at discounts to book."

ASX REITs forecast to leap 14% to 73%

The first real estate investment trust that Macquarie expects to outperform is Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR).

The broker noted that the ASX REIT has "office exposure in our preferred precincts, where we think the fundamental outlook is more favourable. The data is supportive of this thematic with the three major cities seeing negative net absorption in secondary."

Mirvac shares are up 8.8% in 2025, currently trading for $2.05 apiece. Mirvac also trades on a 4.4% unfranked dividend yield.

Macquarie has a 12-month price target of $2.70 for Mirvac, which represents a potential upside of almost 32% from current levels.

The second ASX REIT you may want to buy today is Goodman Group (ASX: GMG).

Goodman shares are down 18.4% in 2025, trading for $29.39 each. The ASX stock also trades on 1.0% unfranked dividend yield.

And Macquarie expects a much better year ahead, with a 12-month price target of $34.73 on Goodman shares, more than 18% above current levels.

The third Aussie real estate investment trust forecast for outsized gains is DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (ASX: DGT).

Currently trading for $2.40 each, DigiCo shares are down 45.7% year to date and trade on 7.0% unfranked dividend yield.

Macquarie forecasts a big turnaround for DigiCo with a $4.16 a share 12-month price target. That's more than 73% above current levels. And it doesn't include that juicy dividend yield.

Which brings us to the fourth ASX REIT Macquarie tips to outperform, GPT Group (ASX: GPT).

GPT shares have surged 23.5% year to date and are currently trading for $5.46 each. GPT stock trades on a 4.4% unfranked dividend yield.

And Macquarie expects shares to gain another 14% in 2026, with a 12-month price target of $6.23 a share.

The post Macquarie names its top 4 ASX REITs to buy today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The most recent rebalance of the ASX indices is set to take effect from December 22, with the additions and exclusions to each index important for funds that look to track those indices.

As such, an inclusion can be a boon for shareholders, while an exclusion can put downward pressure on a company's share price performance.

With Lynas and Soul Patts to be included in the ASX 50, two companies, Amcor Plc (ASX: AMC) and Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR), will be removed.

China moves spur interest in Lynas

Lynas shares have been trading between $13 and $16 for the past month or so, after surging to a 12-month high of $21.96 in mid-October at a time when China flagged extra export controls on key rare earths elements.

The shares are still well up on the 12-month lows of $6.16, and Macquarie recently issued a research note maintaining its outperform rating for the stock, with a 12-month price target of $17. The shares closed Friday's session at $14.14.

As for the S&P/ASX 100 Index (ASX: XTO), vehicle dealership owner Eagers Automotive Ltd (ASX: APE) will be included in the next rebalance, as will Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM).

The $7.57 billion Eagers, in recent months, announced a major capital raise at $21 per share to help pay for its $1.04 billion 65% buyout of CanadaOne Auto Group, with the shares continuing to trade well above that level, last changing hands for $26.84.

Analysts have looked kindly on the CanadaOne purchase, with Macquarie in early November saying the "acquisition of CanadaOne provides a platform for further North American inorganic growth, in what is a highly fragmented market''.

At the time, Macquarie had a price target of $29.98 on Eagers stock.

As for Capricorn Metals, its shares are up more than 100% over the past 12 months, during which time it acquired its Mt Gibson gold project where it has grown the mineral resource estimate to 4.5 million ounces of contained gold.

The company also recently acquired Warriedar Resources for an equity value of $188 million.

To make way for Eagers and Capricorn, Reece Ltd (ASX: REH) and Reliance Worldwide Corporation Ltd (ASX: RWC) will be removed from the ASX 100.

There will be no changes to the S&P/ASX 20 Index (ASX: XTL) this time around.

The post See which companies have just been added to key ASX indices appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here's why they are dropping:

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN)

The Harvey Norman share price is down 1.5% to $6.87. Investors have been selling this retailer's shares again on Friday. The latest catalyst appears to have been a broker note out of UBS this morning. According to the note, the broker has downgraded Harvey Norman's shares to a neutral rating with a reduced price target of $7.50. It made the move on valuation grounds after a strong gain this year left its shares trading at what it believes is fair value.

Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR)

The Mirvac share price is down almost 1.5% to $2.16. It is one of a number of ASX 200 real estate shares that are under pressure on Friday. This appears to have been driven by the release of Australian inflation data, which came in higher than expected. As a result, the market now believes that interest rate cuts are over and the next move could be higher by the Reserve Bank of Australia. This could put pressure on the real estate sector.

Qube Holdings Ltd (ASX: QUB)

The Qube Holdings share price is down 3.5% to $4.80. This may have been driven by profit taking from some investors following strong gains this week. The logistics solutions company's shares surged thanks to the receipt of takeover offer from Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG). The Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) business has offered $5.20 per share for Qube. In response, the company's chair, John Bevan, said: "The proposal from Macquarie Asset Management is a reflection of the strength of Qube's business model and our assets, and the quality of our people and culture. We look forward to continuing to engage constructively in the best interests of our shareholders."

Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN)

The Suncorp share price is down 3% to $17.64. On Thursday, this insurance giant revealed that supercell thunderstorms in south-east Queensland and parts of northern New South Wales were expected to cost Suncorp $350 million, having reached the reinsurance maximum event retention. This morning, according to a note out of Citi, its analysts have retained their neutral rating but cut their price target on its shares from $22.10 to $19.25.

The post Why Harvey Norman, Mirvac, Qube, and Suncorp shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

REITs can offer predictable cash flow and dividend distributions, as well as diversification and capital growth opportunities. But sometimes it can be difficult to pinpoint the ASX REITs with the best potential for growth.

In a new note to investors, analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have highlighted the ASX REITs that they expect to outperform over the next 12 months.

DigiCo Infrastructure REIT Stapled Securities (ASX: DGT)

DigiCo's share price is 0.2% higher on Wednesday morning. At the time of writing, the shares are changing hands for $2.36 a piece. That's a 16.1% drop over the month, and over the year, they're 28.01% lower.

But that shouldn't put you off. Macquarie thinks the low price presents a good buying opportunity. The broker has an outperform rating on the shares and a $4.16 target price. At the time of writing, that implies a potential 76.3% upside over the next 12 months.

Lendlease Group (ASX: LLC)

Lendlease shares are 0.19% lower at the time of writing, trading at $5.21 per share. Over the past month, the ASX REIT's share price has fallen 4.93% and it is now down 24.05% over the year.

Again, Macquarie has an outperform rating on Lendlease shares, with a $6.74 target price. At the time of writing, that implies a potential 29.4% upside for investors over the next 12 months.

Abacus Group (ASX: ABG)

Shares in the diversified property group, which has interests in storage, office, and retail, are 0.43% higher at the time of writing on Wednesday morning, at $1.16 per share. Over the past month, the ASX REIT's share price has dropped 4.51%, and over the year, it's 3.72% lower.

Macquarie has an outperform rating on Abacus shares and a $1.31 12-month target price. That represents a potential 12.9% upside ahead for investors.

Dexus (ASX: DXS)

Dexus shares are trading flat at $7.16 a piece at the time of writing. Over the past month, the Australasian real assets manager and owner's share price has decreased by 4.79%, but over the year, it is 2.43% higher.

Macquarie has assigned an outperform rating and a $8.46 per share target price to the ASX REIT. That implies a potential 18.2% upside for investors over the next 12 months.

Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR)

The Australian property group's shares are up 0.44% at the time of writing, trading at $2.27 each. That's a drop of 6.97% over the month but still 6.34% higher than this time last year.

The broker also has an outperform rating on the shares, with a $2.70 target price. That implies a potential 18.94% upside for investors, using the share price at the time of writing.

Macquarie comments on Lendlease's APPF wind-up

Analysts said that Lendlease expects the wind-up of APPF Retail to be broadly earnings-neutral, with an estimated $17 million contribution in FY25 and a yield of around 5%, similar to debt costs. 

The Trustee has determined the appropriate strategy is to sell all assets (~$2.5bn excluding Erina Fair, which is already in its settlement period).

The wind-up could present a potential opportunity for co-owners and property managers to pick up management roles or buy into parts of the old asset pool if the opportunity comes up. 

The broker also explained that fee pressure is building across unlisted property funds. Recent changes to fee structures suggest potential earnings softness in the near term. With more APPF funds heading into full liquidity in 2026, there's a chance of more wind-ups, depending on how investor sentiment plays out. 

The post Macquarie names 5 ASX REITs that could return up to 76% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The company is a diversified property group with interests across residential and master-planned communities, office and industrial, retail, and build-to-rent sectors. 

It has around $35 billion in assets currently under management, mainly in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Perth.

Investors may target ASX 200 REITs because they typically have predictable cash flows and dividend distributions and offer some capital growth opportunities. 

Mirvac Group shares closed last week at $2.29 each. 

It has already provided investors with solid returns this year, rising more than 20% year to date. 

However, Macquarie believes there is more upside potential for this ASX 200 REIT. 

Market leading capability

In a recent report from the broker, it said Mirvac's market leading capability across living sectors allows it to take advantage of under-supply across the wider housing market. 

It said the full value chain is captured across land subdivision, homes, terraces, mid and high rise apartments, build to rent, and land lease communities. 

According to this report, across the investment portfolio, this exposure has risen from ~$400m (~3%) in FY23 to ~$1.2bn (~10%) in FY25.

In 2023, Mirvac group acquired Serenitas. Serenitas is one of Australia's largest land lease community (LLC) operators – a business model that develops, owns, and manages lifestyle or retirement communities for over-50s.

The team at Macquarie sees Serenitas as a capital-light, high-return model combining stable recurring income with solid development-driven growth.

Serenitas generates passive annuity style rental income from the occupation of its sites with leases indexed to CPI and occasionally CPI +2% with a reset upon resale (no downtime on renewal); and attractive development margins of ~30% on the sale of a house (390 settlements in FY25), generating further capital for development (some competitors talk to 50% marginswith the difference accounted for by civil costs and what is capitalised into land vs expensed into the house).

Price target upside for this ASX 200 REIT

Macquarie has an outperform rating on this ASX 200 REIT and a price target of $2.70. 

From last week's closing price of $2.29 this indicates an upside of 17.9%. 

Elsewhere, TradingView has a 12 month price target of $2.45 and online brokerage platform Selfwealth rates the ASX 200 REIT as undervalued by approximately 8%. 

The post Macquarie predicts 18% upside for this ASX 200 REIT appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Many mortgage-payers are hoping the Reserve Bank will vote for another cut, but following inflation data revealed last week, it looks unlikely.

On Wednesday last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator rose 1.3% in the September quarter and 3.2% annually. And it caused a flurry of selling activity which saw the ASX 200 Index nosedive.

The unexpected surge in inflation all-but dashes hopes for a cut this month. Especially with trimmed mean annual inflation – which removes certain volatile items and is the RBA's preferred measure – rising to 3% for the September quarter, up from 2.7% in the June quarter. That was significantly above the RBA's prior forecast of a 2.6% increase.

Now, economists are near-unanimous that rates will stay locked at 3.6% for the foreseeable future.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) thinks the RBA will keep the cash rate on hold tomorrow and no longer expects that ASX 200 investors will see the RBA cut rates in February 2026.

Goldman Sachs economist Andrew Boak, who had been forecasting an RBA rate cut in November and February, now believes rate relief is off the menu for the foreseeable future.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) chief economist Luci Ellis also believes the increase in inflation dims the hope of rate cuts in 2025. 

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) thinks we'll need to wait until May next year before we see any more cash rate relief.  

Stocks that could benefit from another RBA hold decision

The good news is, real estate investment trust stocks (REITs) don't need cash rate cuts to perform strongly. They benefit from stability.

As stocksdownunder.com explains, when the market shifts from "rates are definitely coming down soon" to "rates will hold steady here for the foreseeable future", it removes uncertainty for property stocks. 

REITs can refinance their debt without concern that they need to time the market and property valuations stop compressing. 

And perhaps most importantly, dividend yields start looking genuinely attractive again when investors know the capital base isn't going to erode further.

Here are four ASX 200-listed REITs which could benefit from another hold decision tomorrow.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

Goodman Group is an integrated property group with operations in 14 countries. It specialises in industrial and commercial properties, owning, developing, and managing a global portfolio worth around $80 billion.

Today, it is the largest real estate investment trust (REIT) in Australia, which makes GMG shares a favourite of listed property enthusiasts. Its operations take in North America, Europe, the UK, China, Japan, Brazil, Australia, and New Zealand. 

Ahead of the ASX open on Monday, Goodman shares are $33.03 a piece.

Scentre Group (ASX: SCG)

Scentre Group owns and operates a portfolio of 42 Westfield shopping malls, 37 in Australia and five in New Zealand. The company owns the majority of the Australian and New Zealand's top five retail destinations, with the group's ownership interests totalling around $35 billion. Its retail assets under management are worth more than $51 billion.

The company says its diversified revenue base reduces exposure to any single shopping centre or retailer. As at 31 December 2022, no anchor retailer contributed more than 3% of rental income, and no specialty retailer contributed more than 2%. Its 10 highest-valued retail shopping centres represented 57% of its portfolio value.

At the time of writing, Scentre Group shares are $4.07 each.

Stockland (ASX: SGP)

Stockland is a diversified property development company. The company is one of Australia's largest residential land and housing developers and its business segment generates about a third of the group's funds from operations. Nearly two-thirds comes from commercial property, mostly retail. It also has a land-lease business, although the company's business mix is evolving.

At the time of writing, its shares are $6.31 a piece.

Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR)

Mirvac Group is a diversified property group with interests across residential and master-planned communities, office and industrial, retail, and build-to-rent sectors. The company has around $35 billion in assets currently under management, mainly in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Perth. 

Around 80% of Mirvac's earnings come from a predictable commercial property portfolio, more than half of which is offices and another quarter retail. The company also holds a small industrial portfolio and a fledgling build-to-rent residential portfolio.

At the time of writing, its shares are $2.30 each. 

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Investors might consider REITs because they usually have predictable cash flows and dividend distributions and offer some capital growth opportunities.

This can provide solid diversification as these markets can move differently to other investments. 

The team out of Macquarie has released a new report today analysing the sector. 

Broadly speaking, the report highlighted that higher bond yields are putting pressure on REIT sector performance, particularly active REITs and fund managers.

The broker said the REIT sector is a relative loser from rising yields. 

Conversely, technology, discretionary and financials are typically the best performers. 

It said bond proxies including REITs are typically the worst.

Despite this, there are 2 ASX 200 REITs that have attracted outperform ratings and attractive price targets from the broker. 

GPT Group (ASX: GPT)

The company is one of Australia's largest listed property trusts. It owns and manages a portfolio of Australian office, logistics, and retail assets worth more than $16 billion. It also has funds under management of more than $19 billion. 

GPT Group shares have risen almost 22% higher in 2025 already. 

The broker believes there could be more growth to come. It has an outperform rating and price target of $6.26 on this ASX REIT. 

From today's share price of $5.40, this indicates an upside of almost 16%. 

It said GPT is offering upside to earnings/valuation in the medium to long term.

Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR)

Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR) is a diversified property group with interests across residential and master-planned communities, office and industrial, retail, and build-to-rent sectors.

It has already risen an impressive 22% year to date. 

In today's report, Macquarie placed a price target of $2.70 on this ASX REIT. This indicates an upside of 17.39% from today's share price of $2.30. 

We prefer MGR on a resi recovery, trading on 18x FY26E P/E (earnings recovery year post FY25 trough).

The post Macquarie names its top 2 ASX 200 REITs appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Mirvac Group report?

• Residential lot exchanges soared to 619, up 79% on 1Q25, with pre-sales of $1.6 billion and 97% of target FY26 settlements in production
• Capital partnership with Mitsubishi Estate unlocked ~$450 million to fund projects and deliver development fees
• Investment portfolio occupancy stayed high at 97%, with strong leasing activity across office, industrial, and retail
• Build to Rent portfolio grew to 2,174 operational lots, with new assets stabilising and robust leasing
• Operating earnings per security guidance reaffirmed at 12.8–13.0 cents for FY26; distribution guidance of 9.5 cents per security maintained

What else do investors need to know?

Mirvac's partnership with Mitsubishi Estate to deliver Harbourside in Sydney not only returns capital but also secures upfront and future profits, especially with residential settlements anticipated in FY28. The group's development pipeline is progressing well, with key commercial projects like 7 Spencer Street in Melbourne reaching construction milestones, and strong tenant interest in new assets.

The Living segment continues to thrive. Mirvac reports positive leasing in its new Build to Rent assets and an expanding land lease portfolio, with new sites acquired and more under due diligence, bringing the land lease portfolio to over 8,400 lots.

What did Mirvac Group management say?

Commenting on the announcement, Mirvac's Group CEO & Managing Director, Campbell Hanan, said:

We saw a significant uplift in residential sales in the first quarter, with 619 lots exchanged, driven by strong momentum at our Sydney and Melbourne masterplanned communities – up 150 per cent and 125 per cent on the same time last year, respectively. Our business is well placed to benefit from the federal government's new first-home buyer guarantee scheme introduced earlier this month, with over 1,400 of our expected lot releases in FY26 falling within the updated pricing caps… It has been a strong start to FY26, and with market fundamentals improving, the Group is well positioned to execute on its objectives and continue the strong momentum into 2026.

What's next for Mirvac Group?

Looking ahead, Mirvac remains focused on growing its Living platform, progressing landmark commercial and mixed-use developments in Sydney and Melbourne, and attracting further funds into its capital platform. With guidance reaffirmed for FY26, performance hinges on key settlement targets and continued momentum in capital partnering.

Development activity is set to continue at major projects including Harbourside, 55 Pitt Street, and several residential releases. The company is also targeting low gearing and active asset management to navigate market conditions.

Mirvac Group share price snapshot

Over the past year, the Mirvac Group share price has risen 11%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has increased around 8% over the same period.

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The post Mirvac Group share price in focus as residential sales surge 79% in 1Q26 update appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

But while the broader index is relatively unchanged, analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have pinpointed two high-yield ASX 200 stocks to keep an eye on over the next 12 months.

Two ASX 200 stocks expected to outperform

In a recent note to investors, the broker highlighted Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR) and Dexus (ASX: DXS) shares as contenders for good growth over the next 12 months.

It has an outperform rating and $2.70 target price on Mirvac shares. It also has an outperform rating and $8.46 target price on Dexus shares.

At the close of the ASX on Tuesday, Mirvac shares were $2.30 a piece. This means the broker anticipates a potential 17.4% upside for investors.

Dexus shares closed the day at $7.32 per share. This means Macquarie's 12-month target price represents a potential 15.6% upside for its investors.

What does the broker have to say about listed property shares?

Macquarie said it has reviewed the 3Q25 JLL commercial property data, which analyses the performance, trends, and outlook of the commercial property real estate market. The broker commented in its investor note that secondary assets and non-CBD markets are expected to underperform. But, that overall yields are stable in Q3 with transaction volumes improving.

The broker also noted that the office data supports a sector recovery. In early 2025, Macquarie explained that it advocated for a rotation into the office. This was based on an "anticipated gradual recovery in income fundamentals and stocks trading at deep discounts to book value". 

It added:

3Q25 office data continued to be positive across most headline data points, and positive forecast revisions over CY25 support an improving environment. This has driven office REITs to partially close the discount to book but DXS remains at a 17% discount, ABG at 30%, COF at 29% and GOZ at 17%.

Macquarie thinks A-REIT trading continues to imply a ~10+% fall in office asset values. Office values have fallen significantly (~20%) from their peak in 2Q22.

We believe there is limited downside risk to book values given stability in market data and with the spread to real bonds around the long-run average. 

Given this, we believe the falls implied in share prices are too great, and therefore this presents an attractive entry point. We maintain a preference for DXS (OP) and MGR (OP), for their office exposure in our preferred precincts, where the fundamental outlook is more favourable.

The post Macquarie names 2 ASX 200 stocks to outperform appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It might be difficult to search for the right company to invest in, but Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has recently flagged three high-yield stocks it expects will outperform over the next 12 months.

3 high-yield shares to keep an eye on

The broker has assigned an outperform rating and a $2.70 target price to Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR) shares. 

At the time of writing on Thursday morning, the Mirvac share price is up 0.44% to $2.30 per share. For the year, it is 5.02% higher. That means Macquarie's target price represents a potential 17.4% upside for Mirvac Group shares.

Mirvac Group shares currently have a dividend yield of 3.90%.

Macquarie also has an outperform rating and $8.46 target price on Dexus (ASX: DXS) shares. 

At the time of writing, the Dexus share price is 0.28% higher and trading at $7.23 a piece. For the year, the shares are 4.99% lower. The current trading price means the broker's target price of $8.46 represents a potential 17% upside.

Dexus shares currently have a dividend yield of 5.12%.

The third high-yield stock flagged to outperform is GPT Group (ASX: GPT). Macquarie has revealed a $6.26 12-month target price on the shares. 

At the time of writing, the GPT Group share price is flat at $5.42 each. Over the year, the share price has risen 8.4%. This means Macquarie's $6.26 target price represents a potential 15.5% upside for investors over the next 12 months.

GPT Group shares currently have a dividend yield of 4.38%.

Office tenancy is rising again

Macquarie said it has reviewed the 3Q25 JLL commercial property data, which analyses the performance, trends, and outlook of the commercial property real estate market. The broker commented that office tenancy data is recovering across Australia.

"Net absorption [the amount of leased or occupied space] was positive across all major cities and has accelerated at a national level over the past year. Sydney was the strongest over the quarter while Melbourne has seen the greatest improvement over the last 12 months," the broker said.

Analysts added that Sydney and Brisbane are Macquarie's preferred markets, and within Sydney, Sydney core is the preferred precinct because of lower vacancy (~13%). 

Within Brisbane, the Golden Triangle is the preferred market. Melbourne is the least preferred market, and within Melbourne, Docklands is the least preferred precinct, given the high vacancy (~21%). 

"We have also previously analysed the quality of the portfolios, see here. 58% of DXS's portfolio lies within the "core" of the major gateway cities. This compares to 30% for SGP, 24% for GPT and 18% for MGR," Macquarie said.

The post Boost your passive income portfolio: Macquarie expects these 3 high-yield stocks to outperform appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Following results, broker Macquarie has also tipped upside for the company.

Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR) is a diversified property group with interests across residential and master-planned communities, office and industrial, retail, and build-to-rent sectors.

Last week's FY25 results included: 

• Operating profit after tax of $474 million
• Statutory profit of $68 million
• Operating earnings per stapled security of 12.0 cents
• Distribution of 9.0 cents per stapled security, totalling $355 million
• Net tangible assets (NTA) of $2.26 per security (FY24: $2.36)
• Headline gearing of 27.6% and $1.2 billion available liquidity

Stock price rises 

Investors looked positively on these results, with Mirvac shares jumping almost 3.5% on Monday. 

The operating profit of $474 million and a distribution totalling $355 million were both in line with guidance.

Investors may also have been optimistic about the completion of three new build-to-rent assets in Melbourne and Brisbane during FY25 and increased residential sales activity. 

Macquarie's take 

Broker Macquarie released a report on Mirvac Group last Friday. 

It included an "outperform" rating and updated (increased) price target of $2.48. The positive outlook was on the back of a projection its total return should turn positive in 1H26 for the first time in 3 years.

Macquarie said Mirvac is past the trough in total returns (2H24) and is now entering a multi-year growth cycle, supported by:

• Residential recovery
• Stabilised office performance
• Major development completions
• Strong capital management and partnering strategies
• Improving interest rate environment

Guidance assumes improved residential performance with 2,000–2,300 residential settlements (MRE: ~2,250), including a greater contribution from builtform in master planned communities and an improved residential gross margin of ~20% (within the range of 18-22%).

Updated price target 

Mirvac Group shares closed at $2.37 each on Monday. 

Based on Macquarie Group's upgraded price target of $2.48, these ASX 200 shares could rise another 4.6%. 

In the report, Macquarie said strong improvement in residential sales driven by offshore and investor interest returning, along with improving sentiment could be a catalyst for upside. 

Simultaneously, the broker said continually soft margins at key apartment projects could drive downside risk to its earnings expectations. 

Online brokerage platform Bell Potter values the ASX 200 company as close to fair value.

TradingView has a one year price target of $2.40. 

The post Macquarie tips upside for this ASX 200 REIT following FY25 result appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are rising more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are climbing:

Lendlease Group (ASX: LLC)

The Lendlease share price is up 5% to $5.84. Investors have been buying this global property developer's shares following the release of its full year results. Lendlease reported a 17.3% decline in revenue to $7,749 million but a profit after tax of $225 million. The latter compares favourably to a loss of $1,502 million a year earlier. This allowed the Lendlease board to declare a partially franked final dividend of 23 cents per share.

Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR)

The Mirvac share price is up 4% to $2.38. The catalyst for this has been a positive reaction to Friday's results from a number of brokers. This includes Citi, which has upgraded its shares to a buy rating with a $2.60 price target. In addition, Macquarie has retained its outperform rating with an improved price target of $2.48. It said: "Outperform, $2.48 TP. MGR's total return troughed in 2H24 and should turn positive in 1H26 for the first time in 3 years. MGR trades attractively at 17x NTM P/E given our expectation of a 3-year OEPS CAGR of 11%."

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB)

The National Australia Bank share price is up 2% to $40.00. Investors have been buying the banking giant's shares following the release of its third quarter update. NAB reported cash earnings of $1.77 billion for the three months, which is flat year on year but down 1% on the first half quarterly average. Management revealed that this reflects underlying profit growth of 2% offset by higher credit impairment charges. The bank's net interest margin (NIM) increased 8 basis points.

REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA)

The REA Group share price is up 3.5% to $259.17. This morning, this property listings company announced the appointment of its new CEO. The realestate.com.au operator has named Cameron McIntyre as its new leader with effect from 3 November. The release notes that McIntyre "is a highly regarded leader with an exceptional track record of delivery in digital marketplace businesses across domestic and international markets." He has been the CEO of auto listings company CAR Group Limited (ASX: CAR) for the past 9 years.

The post Why Lendlease, Mirvac, NAB, and REA Group shares are racing higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Mirvac Group report?

• Operating profit after tax of $474 million (down from $552 million in FY24)
• Statutory profit of $68 million (FY24: $805 million loss)
• Operating earnings per stapled security of 12.0 cents
• Distribution of 9.0 cents per stapled security, totalling $355 million
• Net tangible assets (NTA) of $2.26 per security (FY24: $2.36)
• Headline gearing of 27.6% and $1.2 billion available liquidity

What else happened in FY25?

Mirvac increased its exposure to the living sector, completing three new build-to-rent assets in Melbourne and Brisbane and expanding its land lease portfolio with three new communities. Residential sales activity lifted, settling 2,122 lots and exchanging a further 2,100 (up 39% on FY24), with $1.9 billion in pre-sales providing good visibility of future earnings.

The business strengthened third-party capital relationships, raising $1.6 billion of new capital, and expanded its Build to Rent Venture to more than 2,100 apartments. Investment property valuations improved in the second half, with strong portfolio occupancy at 98%.

What did Mirvac Group management say?

Commenting on the result, CEO and Managing Director Campbell Hanan said:

Our FY25 results demonstrate the continued execution of our strategy and our focus on setting the business up for a return to growth in FY26 and beyond. We grew our living sector exposure, expanded third-party capital relationships, improved operating metrics in our investment portfolio and progressed our development pipeline, all while ensuring the balance sheet remained in good shape.

What's next for Mirvac Group?

Looking to FY26, Mirvac expects improved conditions across all sectors, supported by easing inflation and interest rates. Management is targeting operating earnings per security of 12.8–13.0 cents (a 6.7–8.3% increase) and a distribution of 9.5 cents, pending stable market conditions.

Growth is expected to come from new development income, capital partnering initiatives, and a ramp-up in residential projects. Strong pre-sales and development pipelines leave Mirvac well placed to benefit from any sector recovery.

Mirvac Group share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Mirvac Group has run slightly ahead of the market. Mirvac Group shares are up 15%, compared to 13% for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).  

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The post Mirvac Group FY25 earnings: return to growth in sight appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.