Down nearly 20% this year: Is it time to buy Lendlease shares

The property development and construction company returned to profit in August.

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Key points

  • Lendlease shares are trading at $5.49, showing a 0.55% increase today but are 18.42% lower compared to last year, with little change over the past six months.
  • The company returned to profitability with a $225 million net profit for FY25, after losses the previous year, and anticipates a sharp earnings rebound from FY27, despite an expected transition year in FY26.
  • Analysts are mixed with 4 out of 7 recommending a buy, some forecasting a price increase to between $5.85 and $6.74, suggesting a potential upside of up to 23.22% in the next 12 months.

Lendlease Group (ASX: LLC) shares are trading in the green in lunchtime trading on Tuesday. At the time of writing the shares are 0.55% higher and changing hands for $5.49 a piece.

The shares are 18.42% lower than this time last year. Over the past 6 months Lendlease shares are relatively unchanged and over the month the share price is flat.

So what's happened to the stock? And is there more downside ahead, or does the current share price present a buying opportunity for investors?

Here's what happened to Lendlease shares this year

Lendlease shares dropped 17.8% in early December last year. It shed another 17.3% in early April this year on completion of the sale of its UK Construction business to Atlas Holdings.

Investors started buying back into the property developer's shares after it officially signed a joint venture agreement with the Crown Estate in the United Kingdom in May.

Later in August, the group reported it had returned to profit. It announced a net profit after tax of $225 million for FY25, a turnaround from a significant loss in FY24. The company's distribution rose by 44% and operating profit after tax reached $386 million.

At the time the company said it expects FY26 to be a transition year as it continues to simplify its business. It anticipates a lower earnings contribution from major project completions but plans for a sharp earnings rebound from FY27, supported by a strong development and construction pipeline.

There hasn't been much price-sensitive news out of the company since August, and the share price has remained relatively unchanged.

Is it time for investors to buy?

According to TradingView data, sentiment around Lendlease shares is still relatively mixed. Out of 7 analysts, 4 have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock, 2 have a hold rating and 1 has a sell rating on the shares.

The good news is that despite the mixed outlook on the shares, the consensus is that shares will rise. Some analysts forecast that the share price could reach a maximum of $6.74 within the next 12 months while the minimum forecast is for $5.85 a piece.

These target prices represent a potential upside of between 6.95% and 23.22% for investors, at the time of writing.

In September, analysts at Macquarie highlighted Lendlease shares as a good investment opportunity in the real estate and REIT market. The broker has a buy rating and the maximum $6.74 price target on the shares.

Sequoia Wealth Management's Peter Day also has a buy rating on Lendlease shares. He said that he sees a much stronger year ahead for the property development and construction company. 

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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