If you are looking for a double-digit return, then it could be worth taking a look at the ASX 200 stock in this article. Especially if you're an income investor.
That's because analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) are tipping it to outperform.
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Which ASX 200 stock?
The stock that gets a thumbs up from Macquarie is GPT Group (ASX: GPT).
It is one of Australia's leading real estate investment managers, with assets under management of $34 billion across a diverse portfolio of high-quality retail, office, logistics and student accommodation assets.
According to the note, the broker has reviewed the ASIC lodged accounts and constitution for GPT Wholesale Shopping Centre Fund (GWSCF) and GPT Wholesale Office Fund (GWOF). It notes that this provides details of the GWSCF revised fee structure and liquidity terms. Macquarie said:
GWSCF has satisfied 77% of the 20% capped upfront liquidity accepted. Liquidity of up to 2.5% per quarter will commence the earliest of satisfaction of outstanding liquidity requests and 1-Jul-26. We estimate GWSCF gearing will exceed the upper end of the target gearing range of 10-30% post completion of upfront liquidity redemptions and including c. $100m capital committed to the Rouse Hill development. GWSCF has targeted to raise up to $500m of new equity at $0.8789 a 0.6% discount to 30-Jun-25 net asset value per security. If successful this would provide c. $620m of acquisition capacity to 30% gearing.
As for GWOF, Macquarie acknowledges that its modernisation poses a risk to the ASX 200 stock's earnings. It adds:
GWOF modernisation of fund terms a risk to GPT earnings. We assume a fee cut to 37.5bps in Dec-26 and redemption requests equal to 30% of GAV satisfied via asset sales over FY27. Peer fund fees are: APPF Commercial 29bps, MWOF 30bps and CPOF c. 39.6bps. We also understand some managers may provide rebates via side letters to investors based upon total AUM in the respective manager platform.
Time to buy
In response to the above, Macquarie has retained its outperform rating on the ASX 200 stock with a trimmed price target of $5.67.
Based on its current share price of $5.39, this implies modest potential upside of 5.2% over the next 12 months.
However, it also expects dividend yields of 4.5% in FY 2025 and then 4.6% in FY 2026. This boosts the total potential 12-month return to approximately 10%.
Commenting on its outperform recommendation, Macquarie concludes:
Outperform $5.67 TP. Execution of strategy offers upside potential to valuation in the medium to long term. From here, we believe evidence of growth in third-party FUM will be key.
