Siteminder Ltd (ASX: SDR) shares have fallen almost 60% over twelve months, and the brokers covering the company now think there is more upside than downside.

The stock trades at $2.80 against a 52-week range of $2.60 to $7.96.

The majority of brokers hold a buy rating, and the $5.40 average target implies roughly 90% upside.

The market capitalisation is now under $804 million.

Why SiteMinder shares collapsed

The company sells an e-commerce platform to hotels and other accommodation businesses.

The shares have dropped around 27% since the FY26 result in late August and are down 52.30% for the calendar year.

Two things caused the damage.

The first was the broad de-rating of ASX technology shares, as investors questioned whether artificial intelligence erodes software business models.

The second was specific and came from the outlook statement.

What the FY26 result showed

Weirdly, the numbers were the best in the company's history.

Revenue rose 22% on a constant currency and organic basis to $266.1 million.

Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation jumped 96.5% to $28.1 million.

The margin expanded to 10.6% and the net loss narrowed to $11.3 million from $24.5 million.

Annual recurring revenue grew 24.1% to $313.7 million and adjusted free cash flow more than doubled to $10.5 million.

The operating detail was good too.

Transaction revenue grew 34% and average revenue per user climbed 9.3% to $429.

SiteMinder now serves 56,000 hotel customers globally, with the Channels Plus hotel count up 43%.

Adjusted gross margin reached 67.2%.

More than 85% of customer billings are in foreign currencies, so a stronger Australian dollar impacted earnings.

Chief executive Sankar Narayan pointed to the trajectory of the company:

SiteMinder's FY26 performance builds on three years of sustained progress. Subscription and transaction ARR growth have exceeded 15% and 30%, respectively, on a constant-currency and organic basis in each of those years, while adjusted EBITDA has improved by more than $50 million with margins expanding from negative 14.5% to positive 10.6%.

The guidance that sank SiteMinder shares

Management expects the adjusted EBITDA margin to keep expanding in FY27 and reach the mid-20% range by FY30.

Annual recurring revenue is targeted to grow at around 20% a year over the next four years.

Herein lies the problem.

ARR grew 24.1% in FY26, so a 20% target is a deceleration.

A mid-20% margin by FY30 is four years away for a company that just posted margins of 10.6%.

Investors who had priced in faster compounding left.

There is a reasonable counter-argument.

Guiding to 20% ARR growth after delivering 24.1% is conservative rather than alarming, and management has beaten its own numbers for three consecutive years.

The margin path is also cumulative, so each year of expansion compounds against a larger revenue base.

None of that helped a share price that had been priced for perfection.

Foolish takeaway

The bear case on SiteMinder shares is that the company will likely exhibit slowing growth from here.

The bull case is that a business growing recurring revenue at 20% with expanding margins should not be valued at $804 million.

I think the sell-off has gone too far, because the FY26 execution was strong and the balance sheet no longer needs rescuing.

The risk is that global travel softens while households everywhere tighten, and hotels are not immune to that.

The post Brokers say SiteMinder shares can rise 90%. Is the sell-off overdone? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 2 ASX shares tipped by brokers to return 66% and 90%
• 2 top ASX shares to buy and hold for the next decade
• Why I'd invest $10,000 into these ASX growth shares
• 2 ASX shares tipped to grow 60% or more in the next 12 months
• Why I think this is a top ASX tech share to buy today

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended SiteMinder. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended SiteMinder. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Plenty of S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are now trading below their 200-day moving average, and on Thursday, the benchmark index joined them.

The ASX 200 Index fell 1.68% to 8,762 points, its lowest level in six weeks.

Its 200-day moving average was sitting near 8,816 points before the open.

The index has now dropped through it, which is the sort of thing technical investors notice.

Why so many ASX 200 shares have broken trend

Three forces arrived at once.

Brent crude pushed to US$101.60 a barrel as tensions involving the United States and Iran escalated.

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.84%, its highest since 2023.

Markets now price roughly a 70% chance the Reserve Bank raises rates again on 29 September.

The selling was broad, with 153 shares falling against 36 rising at one point on Thursday.

Here are three stocks that have been particularly hard hit.

1. Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO)

Judo trades at 99.5 cents against a 52-week range of 82 cents to $2.07.

The shares are down almost 40% over twelve months and have not recovered from June's guidance downgrade.

However, the FY26 result did not justify that. Statutory net profit rose 29% to $111.1 million and profit before tax climbed 34% to $168.1 million.

Deposits jumped 24% to $12.2 billion and now fund more than 70% of the balance sheet.

Chief executive Chris Bayliss addressed the credit issue directly.

FY26 has been another year of genuine momentum for Judo. While the increase in specific provisions late in the year was disappointing, the underlying performance of the Bank has remained strong, with record revenue, continued operating leverage, strong deposit growth and lending at the top end of guidance.

FY27 guidance calls for profit before tax of $210 million to $220 million.

2. JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH)

JB Hi-Fi is the most extreme case here.

JB Hi-Fi shares traded at $64.60 on Thursday, below their previous 52-week low of $65.45.

However, like Judo Capital, results remain strong.

FY26 revenue rose 4.8% to $11.06 billion and net profit after tax lifted 6% to $489.9 million.

The total ordinary dividend rose 22.5% to 337 cents per share, fully franked.

JB Hi-Fi ended the year with $206.5 million in net cash and no interest-bearing debt.

However, investors are selling due to potentially higher rates, which would encourage households to pull back spending on discretionary purchases.

3. Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN)

Qantas sits near $9, close to its 52-week low of $8.03.

Unlike the previous two, earnings have fallen in recent times.

FY26 underlying profit before tax fell $330 million to $2.06 billion.

Almost all of that came from one source, with the Middle East conflict producing a $420 million net impact through record fuel prices and route disruption.

Qantas Loyalty still lifted underlying earnings before interest and tax 12%.

Oil at US$101 is the obvious problem, and it is why this one is among the cheapest ASX 200 shares on an earnings multiple.

Foolish takeaway

I would rather buy a profitable business experiencing a temporary share price downturn than a stock everyone already likes.

The catch is that such stocks can stay below trend for a very long time.

The post Top 3 ASX 200 shares now below their 200-day moving average appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ASX retail shares are down 13% in 2026. Here's what Morgan Stanley is worried about
• 3 ASX 200 shares forecast to fly 30% to 40% higher
• JB Hi-Fi vs Harvey Norman: Which dividend stock wins?
• Brokers tip these 3 ASX shares to climb between 50% and 122% in the next 12 months
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares fell 3.02% to $62.63 on Thursday as iron ore slipped back below US$100 a tonne.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) dropped 3.45% to $173.15, and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) lost 2.41% to $17.19.

Overall, mining shares did much of the damage to the index on the day.

The question is whether a sub-US$100 iron ore price will lead to sustained declines for these miners.

Why BHP shares are less exposed than they look

The composition of BHP's earnings has changed.

Copper now accounts for 54% of group earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.

Iron ore is still enormous, but it is no longer the majority of the business.

The FY26 result showed what that mix produced.

Underlying EBITDA rose 27% to a record US$32.9 billion and underlying attributable profit climbed 30% to US$13.2 billion.

Net operating cash flow grew 17% to US$21.8 billion.

BHP determined US$8.7 billion of dividends, or 172 US cents per share, on a 66% payout ratio.

Net debt finished at US$8.7 billion, around 0.3 times EBITDA.

Management is guiding to 3% to 4% compound annual growth in copper equivalent volumes through to FY35, with capital expenditure steady near US$11 billion in FY27.

What the miners earn at these prices

Fortescue is the most pure iron ore exposure of the three.

The company's FY26 revenue grew 9% to US$17.0 billion and underlying EBITDA rose 9% to US$8.6 billion at a 51% margin.

Free cash flow increased 25% to US$3.2 billion and shipments hit a record 201.3 million tonnes.

The company's Hematite C1 unit cost was US$18.74 per wet metric tonne.

That cost number is one to watch.

At under US$19 a tonne to dig it out, Fortescue still makes very good money with iron ore near US$100.

FY27 guidance does show costs rising to between US$20.50 and US$21.75 a tonne.

What brokers make of BHP shares

Not everyone is convinced after the run.

Gray Perry Wealth Advisers' Blake Halligan has a hold recommendation on the miner.

BHP remains a high-quality diversified miner with large, low-cost assets and increasing exposure to copper.

His reasoning for holding was equally direct.

Commodity-price sensitivity and project execution risks support retaining BHP rather than increasing exposure.

That caution is understandable given the starting point.

Including dividends, BHP has returned about 62% over the past 12 months and reclaimed its position as the largest company on the ASX.

How the three compare today

The valuations tell three different stories.

BHP trades on a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.3 with a 3.87% fully franked yield after gaining 43% this calendar year.

Rio Tinto sits on 17.2 times earnings with a 3.81% yield and is up 24% year to date.

Fortescue is on 13.6 times with a 6.16% yield, and is down 15% for the year.

Foolish takeaway

Iron ore below US$100 matters most to the company that sells nothing else.

That is Fortescue, and it is also the cheapest of the three by a wide margin.

BHP shares are the highest quality and most expensive, and the copper transition provides valuable diversification benefits.

The post Iron ore is back below US$100. Are BHP and Rio Tinto shares still buys? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Woodside Energy vs Fortescue: Which ASX mining share is best for passive income?
• 5 ASX shares I'd recommend to beginners
• Should I buy Rio Tinto shares for passive income?
• BHP vs Rio Tinto: What's the better buy?

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares have risen as much as 90% from their June low. At this point, the broker community can't agree on what is next for CSL shares.

The stock bottomed at $90.00 in June, an eleven-year low.

Shares closed Wednesday at $171.21 before easing to $166.89 on Thursday.

Some of that fall is mechanical, because the shares traded ex-dividend on Wednesday ahead of a $2.28 per share dividend payment on 2 October.

Why CSL shares recovered so quickly

The catalyst was a result that looked terrible but read rather well.

FY26 revenue slipped 1% to US$15.8 billion and the company reported a statutory net loss after tax of US$2.6 billion.

That loss included US$7.1 billion of pre-tax impairments and US$799 million of restructuring costs, most of it non-cash.

Underlying net profit after tax and amortisation fell just 2% to US$3.1 billion.

Investors had been warned.

CSL flagged around US$5 billion of impairments back in May and cut its guidance at the same time.

By August the market was ready to treat the write-downs as history.

Interim chief executive Gordon Naylor was upbeat:

FY26 has been a year of reset. We have taken decisive action and created a clear path to return to sustainable growth. Plasma market fundamentals and demand remain robust and momentum is building behind our newer therapies, such as ANDEMBRY and HEMGENIX.

What FY27 has to deliver

The bull case now rests on guidance.

CSL expects revenue to be steady in FY27 with underlying net profit growing approximately 5%.

Consensus had been closer to 2%, so the guidance was a true upgrade.

Behring is expected to grow revenue at a mid-single-digit rate, led by immunoglobulins.

Seqirus is guided to low single-digit growth as US immunisation rates soften.

Vifor is the problem, with revenue forecast to fall about 25% as iron generics enter the market.

Vifor itself was the source of most of the impairments, and it is now shrinking at a quarter a year.

The bulls argue Behring is large enough to absorb that.

The bears point out it has to do so while the group carries the cost of an unfinished transformation programme.

Where brokers disagree on CSL shares

Of 19 analysts tracked, 10 rate CSL shares a hold while nine have a buy or strong buy.

The average 12-month target is $173.04, barely above the current price.

The spread underneath that average is enormous.

The most bullish target sits at $206.76 and the most bearish at $131.49.

Foolish takeaway

The argument now is about whether a business that has just written off US$7.1 billion can compound at high single digits again.

I lean towards the bulls, largely because plasma demand has not been impacted and CSL's cost reduction programme is starting to yield results.

What I would not do is assume there is still easy money to be made.

The post CSL shares are up 90%. Brokers can't agree what happens next appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Two broker upgrades put CSL shares back in focus

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Payday superannuation has been the reality for a little over two months. The real question is: has it made you better off?

Employers have been required to pay super at the same time as wages since 1 July 2026.

That replaced a quarterly system that had operated for decades.

What payday superannuation changed

Under the old rules, employers paid contributions quarterly, with payment due within 28 days of each quarter's end.

Money deducted as super could therefore sit with an employer for up to three months before reaching a fund.

Under the new rules, contributions must reach the employee's fund within seven business days of payday.

The rate stays at 12%, now calculated on qualifying earnings rather than ordinary time earnings, a slightly broader base that includes relevant salary sacrifice amounts.

A first contribution for a new employee has a longer 20 business day window.

There is no grace period after that, and the Australian Taxation Office now assesses the Super Guarantee Charge itself rather than relying on employer self-assessment.

The superannuation benefit is there, but it is small

Two months in, the practical effect for a fortnightly paid worker is that roughly five pay cycles of contributions are already invested.

Under the old system, most of that money would still be sitting with the employer until late October.

Treasury modelling estimates the change could add around $6,000 to the retirement savings of the average 25-year-old over a full working career.

The larger benefit is visibility.

Unpaid super used to take months to surface, particularly in casual, labour hire and contract roles.

Under payday rules, a missing contribution shows up within weeks.

Where your superannuation goes matters more

This is the part worth spending time on.

More frequent contributions only compound if the money is invested sensibly once it lands.

The Australian portion of most balances is easy to benchmark.

For example, the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS) tracks the S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) and charges 0.07% a year.

In FY26 it delivered a total gross return of 6.19%, or 6.12% after fees.

The index itself gained 2.84% in value and paid a 3.32% dividend yield.

With $25.4 billion in funds under management, it remains the largest ETF on the ASX.

Foolish takeaway

Payday superannuation has made most Australians marginally better off, and it has made underpayment far harder to hide.

Neither of those is a reason to change what you own.

The timing of contributions is worth thousands over a career, while the investment option you sit in is worth hundreds of thousands.

I would spend ten minutes confirming the money is arriving, then spend considerably longer checking that your superannuation is in a risk setting that matches how long you have until you need it.

The post Payday superannuation is two months old. Has it made you better off? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Worried about a downturn? 3 ASX shares and 3 ETFs built to weather it
• Vanguard ETFs vs. Betashares ETFs: Who's coming out on top?
• What Warren Buffett can teach Australians about superannuation

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The ASX shares most attractive to own are usually cheapest at the moment the market is least comfortable.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has slipped from an August peak of 9,282 points to around 8,901.

That is a fall of roughly 4% in a month.

Around 120 companies in the index were in the red on Wednesday, creating opportunities for investors looking to get in cheap.

Why the sell-off has created opportunities in ASX shares

The cause is relatively simple: Macquarie now expects the Reserve Bank to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points later this month.

The broker noted that trimmed mean inflation has spent 17 of the last 20 quarters above the target band.

The cash rate already sits at 4.35% after three increases this year.

Higher rates compress the multiple investors will pay for future earnings, although they may not automatically damage the earnings themselves.

With that in mind, here are three ASX shares that look a lot cheaper now that the broader market has sold off.

1. Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO)

Judo Capital closed Wednesday at 99.5 cents, down almost 40% over twelve months.

Shares crashed 46% in a single session in June after the bank flagged three problem exposures and cut guidance.

The result that followed was better than the recent share price moves suggest, although increases in credit delinquencies have been a drag for the company.

FY26 statutory net profit rose 29% to $111.1 million.

Profit before tax climbed 34% to $168.1 million.

Gross loans and advances grew 18% to $14.7 billion while deposits jumped 24% to $12.2 billion.

The net interest margin widened 20 basis points to 3.13%.

Chief executive Chris Bayliss did reference particular credit issues in his speech:

FY26 has been another year of genuine momentum for Judo. While the increase in specific provisions late in the year was disappointing, the underlying performance of the Bank has remained strong, with record revenue, continued operating leverage, strong deposit growth and lending at the top end of guidance.

FY27 guidance calls for profit before tax of $210 million to $220 million, whereas the average broker target of $1.51 implies roughly 50% upside.

2. South32 Ltd (ASX: S32)

South32 is the odd one out here.

The company's shares hit a fresh 52-week high of $5.32 on Wednesday and are up 103% over twelve months.

Not every holding bought during a sell-off has to be a bargain.

South32 earns US dollars from copper, zinc and silver, which is a completely different driver to the domestic rate cycle.

FY26 underlying earnings rose 55% to US$1.03 billion and underlying EBITDA grew 28% to US$2.46 billion. Meanwhile, total dividends lifted 55% to 9.3 US cents per share, fully franked.

Chief executive Matt Daley explained where the business is heading.

The sale of our aluminium value chain assets to Alcoa will simplify and strengthen our portfolio, positioning South32 as a leading base metals focused company with high-margin assets and a pipeline of compelling growth options in copper, zinc and silver.

3. Life360 Inc (ASX: 360)

Life360 closed at $19.64 and are down 60.6% over twelve months.

On the positive side, second quarter revenue rose 38% to US$159.0 million and adjusted EBITDA increased 53% to US$31.1 million. Monthly active users passed 102.4 million and advertising revenue reached US$22 million.

The company holds US$467.7 million in cash and guides FY26 revenue to US$650 million to US$685 million.

The shares fell anyway, because investors had priced in a bigger guidance upgrade.

Foolish takeaway

A 4% pullback is not a crash.

But what this pullback has done is separate the multiple from the earnings across much of the market at once.

All three of these ASX shares grew earnings materially in FY26, and two have been sold down heavily regardless.

For ASX investors, this could be a unique buying opportunity.

The post Top 3 ASX shares I'd buy after the most recent sell-off appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• South32 shares fall 10% from all-time high: Is the rally over?
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• Brokers tip these 3 ASX shares to climb between 50% and 122% in the next 12 months
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Life360. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Life360. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

EchoIQ Ltd (ASX: EIQ) shares crashed 48% on Wednesday morning and closed at 64 cents.

The medical technology company told the market that the United States Food and Drug Administration had issued a Not Substantially Equivalent determination for EchoSolv HF.

EchoSolv HF is its heart failure decision support software.

Company shares traded as low as 47 cents during the session.

More than 53 million changed hands, against a one-month average of under 2.9 million.

Why EIQ shares fell so hard

The company applied through the 510(k) pathway.

That route requires a company to show its device is substantially equivalent to one already on the market.

A Not Substantially Equivalent determination means the FDA did not accept that argument.

Morgans had made EIQ's dependence on getting this approval explicit only a week earlier.

The broker retained a speculative buy rating and a $1.85 price target at the time.

The market is still waiting on an FDA decision for its Heart Failure (HF) application, which remains the key near-term catalyst and value inflection driver. Despite delays, we maintain a positive view on approval. Speculative Buy retained and A$1.85 p/s target price unchanged.

What the company has actually said

Echo IQ has not abandoned the application.

Upon receipt of the FDA's determination, Echo IQ, together with its US regulatory and legal advisors, its study partners, and independent statistical experts, has commenced a detailed review of the regulatory matters raised. The Company believes there is a pathway forward for clearance under the 510(k) route and intends to engage with the FDA to further clarify the matters identified in the determination and assess all administrative and regulatory options available to Echo IQ.

Managing director Dustin Haines was measured about the setback.

Our immediate priority is to understand the matters raised in full and determine the most efficient pathway forward. We remain confident in the underlying technology, the clinical rationale for EchoSolv HF and the significant opportunity to improve the identification of patients at risk of heart failure.

Two things soften the blow.

The company holds more than $105 million in cash, so it is unlikely to run out of cash any time soon.

What's more, the company possesses a separate EchoSolv AS platform that detects aortic stenosis.

This product is already FDA-cleared, and its commercialisation is unaffected.

What this does to the Pro Medicus deal

Here is the detail that matters most.

In June, Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME) agreed to invest an initial $10 million through secured convertible notes.

It also took the right to subscribe for a further $10 million once EchoSolv HF was cleared.

As such, that second tranche is now tied to an approval that has just been refused.

However, the reseller arrangement still stands.

This agreement gives Echo IQ access to Pro Medicus customers across US health systems, and it applies to the cleared product.

Where EIQ shares go from here

Context is worth keeping in mind.

Even after halving, EIQ shares are up 124% over twelve months. They remain 392% higher for the calendar year.

Investors who bought over a year ago would still be very happy.

Foolish takeaway for EchoIQ shares

The pathway forward is a regulatory one.

EchoIQ as a company now operates somewhere between a cleared aortic stenosis business and a heart failure product with no approval date.

Before investigating further, I would want to see the company's opinion of the FDA's specific objections.

The post EchoIQ shares just crashed 48%. What happens now? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Shares surge as ASX biotech charts road to redemption
• Cochlear vs Pro Medicus: Which beaten-down ASX healthcare share is the better buy today?
• 3 ASX 200 shares tipped by experts to jump 30% to 62%
• Buy, hold, sell: Echo IQ, James Hardie, Woolworths shares
• 6 ASX shares downgraded by brokers this week

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Life360 Inc (ASX: 360) shares are trading about 60% below where brokers think they should be, and the difference has a very specific cause.

The stock closed Wednesday at $19.64, whereas the average analyst target price is $31.72. Every broker covering the company rates it a buy or strong buy.

Why Life360 shares fell so far

The de-rating started well before the latest result.

The shares peaked at $55.44 in early October and then fell to an annual low of $17.91 by mid-April.

Most of that was sector-wide, as investors sold high-multiple technology names on fears that artificial intelligence could erode software business models.

ASX tech stocks then rallied through June and early August on a strong first quarter.

The second quarter update in mid-August ended that recovery, and the shares shed 30% of their value in the weeks that followed.

What the second quarter showed

Despite this pullback, second quarter numbers were at a record high.

Total revenue rose 38% year-on-year to US$159.0 million, and adjusted EBITDA increased 53% to US$31.1 million.

Annualised monthly revenue grew 29% to US$537.2 million and paying circles jumped 27% to 3.2 million.

Advertising revenue reached a record US$22 million, up 315%, while operating cash flow grew 79% to US$23.8 million.

Global monthly active users rose 4.6 million in the quarter to approximately 102.4 million.

Chief executive Lauren Antonoff framed the quarter around the user gowth milestone.

This quarter, Life360 crossed 100 million monthly active users—proof of the trust millions of families place in us to stay connected, coordinated, and safe. Disciplined execution drove strong Paying Circle growth and put MAU back on the growth trajectory we outlined last quarter.

However, operating expenses also rose 43% to US$127 million, largely on growth and integration costs from the Nativo acquisition.

The two details that sank the result

The first is guidance.

Life360 left FY26 revenue guidance at US$650 million to US$685 million and adjusted EBITDA at US$130 million to US$140 million.

Shareholders had grown used to upgrades, but received a reiteration instead.

The second is the quality of the earnings beat.

Bell Potter noted that paying circles grew by 185,000 against its 155,000 forecast and consensus of 136,000, and that adjusted EBITDA comfortably beat its US$25.7 million estimate.

Roughly US$4 million of that beat, however, came from a tariff refund.

Underlying adjusted EBITDA was therefore closer to US$27 million.

What brokers say Life360 shares are worth

Bell Potter kept its buy rating and trimmed its target slightly.

The net impact on our target price is a 3% decrease to $34.00 which has all been driven by the DCF due to modest downgrades and changes in working capital assumptions. We retain our BUY recommendation and note we expect the buyback to be more active this quarter after only modestly commencing last quarter.

Every analyst covering the company currently holds a buy or strong buy rating.

The $31.72 average target implies about 60% upside, and the most bullish sits above $40.

Foolish takeaway

The bull case for Life360 shares is that a company growing revenue at 38% should not trade on 25 times earnings.

The bear case is that the market no longer believes guidance will be beaten, and a tariff refund flatters the results.

I tend to agree more with the brokers than the share price, because paying circles and advertising are both compounding faster than the cost base.

In the short-term, however, Life360 shares will stay volatile until management either upgrades guidance or explains why it cannot.

The post Life360 shares are 60% below broker targets. Here's why appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 3 ASX 200 shares tipped by experts to jump 30% to 62%
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week
• 9 ASX 200 shares earning strengthened buy ratings this week
• Top 3 ASX shares I'd buy after the most recent sell-off

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Life360. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Life360. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX copper shares finally have the copper price support the bulls have promised for years.

Copper set an all-time high in London this week.

The London Metal Exchange three-month price closed at US$14,415.50 a tonne on Monday, a gain of 0.57%.

The metal has advanced roughly 17% over the past year.

Why the copper price matters for ASX copper shares

Copper is unique among commodities because demand is structural in today's world.

Electricity grids, data centres, and renewable generation all consume enormous volumes of it.

Supply is the harder half, because new mines take a decade to build.

BHP has been transparent about where it sees the opportunity, describing copper as the engine driving the company's growth.

The company has a project pipeline across Chile, Australia, and Argentina that it believes can lift copper production by around 40% by FY35.

Copper climbed to record levels on Tuesday while most of the market fell.

The important point for investors is that a record price does not lift every producer equally.

Costs, grades, and operational reliability decide who converts the price into cash.

1. Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR)

Sandfire Resources is the purest copper exposure on the ASX and the clearest winner of the three.

Shares closed at $22.50 and are up 82.93% over twelve months.

FY26 was a transformational year, capped by record sales and a much stronger balance sheet.

Revenue rose 41% to US$1,654 million and underlying EBITDA rose 64% to US$867 million.

Net profit jumped 282% to US$354 million on production of 154.2 thousand tonnes of copper equivalent.

The company moved into a net cash position and declared a 35 cent fully-franked final dividend, its first since 2022.

FY27 guidance calls for 150 to 166 thousand tonnes of copper equivalent.

Managing director Brendan Harris had this to say:

We have the right team, we have the right strategy, and we're producing the commodities the world needs to decarbonise.

2. 29Metals Ltd (ASX: 29M)

29Metals is the cautionary tale in this group.

The shares are down 4.65% over twelve months.

The half-year result showed precisely why a high copper price is not enough on its own.

Revenue rose 12% to $304.9 million, yet the company swung to a net loss of $34.8 million from a $35.3 million profit.

EBITDA collapsed from $112.6 million to $30.5 million and no interim dividend was declared.

The problems are linked to operational events.

Seismic events at Xantho Extended forced a temporary exclusion zone and gutted zinc production at Golden Grove.

Capricorn Copper remains suspended while tailings approvals work through the system.

Finally, a $150 million entitlement offer lifted liquidity to $202.1 million, which buys management time rather than solving anything.

3. BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

BHP is a diversified way to buy into the copper thematic.

FY26 was the year copper overtook iron ore inside the business.

BHP produced roughly two million tonnes of copper for a second consecutive year.

Copper contributed more than half of group underlying EBITDA for the first time, out of a group total near US$33 billion.

Net debt finished below US$9 billion and the final dividend was 99 US cents per share, the largest in four years.

The trade-off is dilution of the theme.

Iron ore still matters enormously to BHP, and it is not at a record price.

Foolish takeaway

The copper price is doing what the long-term bulls said it would.

However, the difference in fortunes between Sandfire and 29Metals this year proves not every miner is a buy.

I would rather pay up for a producer already converting a record price into cash than buy the cheapest option on the market.

ASX copper shares have rarely had a better backdrop, and the risk now sits with the companies rather than the commodity.

The post Copper prices just hit a record high. What does this mean for ASX copper shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Finding ASX growth shares trading at half their broker targets is unusual, but right now there are several doing just that.

Earnings season has ended and analysts have refreshed their price targets across hundreds of companies.

The three below have all fallen heavily over the past year.

All three are still growing earnings, which is what makes the gap interesting.

Why these ASX growth shares were sold off

The cause is the same in each case.

Interest rate expectations have moved sharply, with all four major banks now forecasting another rise this year.

Higher rates hit companies valued on distant earnings hardest, and they hit companies funding growth with debt harder still.

None of these three fell because of a downgrade.

Each of them reported growth in FY26.

1. NEXTDC Ltd (ASX: NXT)

NEXTDC closed Tuesday at $12.52 after falling 14% in a month.

UBS has a buy rating with a $23.45 target, implying 88% upside.

The FY26 result was a record.

Net revenue rose 16% to $405.0 million and underlying EBITDA rose 15% to $248.8 million, both above guidance.

Contracted utilisation surged 202% to 740.1 megawatts and statutory net profit turned positive at $82.1 million.

FY27 guidance points to net revenue of $615 million to $640 million, growth above 50%.

The catch is the capital expenditure required to deliver it, guided at $5.25 billion to $5.75 billion.

2. Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX: NEC)

Nine Entertainment is the cheapest and most contrarian of the three.

Shares closed at 86 cents, down 48.19% over twelve months and barely above a 52-week low of 83.5 cents.

Morgan Stanley has a buy rating with a $1.40 target, implying 63% upside.

FY26 revenue rose 3% to $2.19 billion on a continuing business basis and group EBITDA jumped 17% to $379 million.

Net profit after tax increased 7% to $142.4 million and earnings per share before amortisation rose 11% to 9.3 cents.

The QMS Outdoor acquisition contributed $55 million of EBITDA in its first three months.

Similarly, digital subscription revenue grew 12%, and Nine has signed content licensing deals for AI applications including one with Microsoft.

Chief executive Matt Stanton explained the reshaping of the portfolio.

Over the past 12 months, we have made material changes to our business portfolio, focusing on growth and digital assets whilst reducing our exposure to structurally challenged and smaller assets. These transactions add to our operational scale and create a higher growth and more resilient Nine, better positioned to create long term sustainable value for our shareholders.

The final dividend of 3.0 cents is unfranked, and management expects that to continue.

3. Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

Zip has the most bullish coverage on the ASX.

All twelve analysts covering the company rate it a buy or strong buy, with an average target of $4.56 against a $2.31 share price.

That implies roughly 95% upside, with the most optimistic target at $6.03.

FY26 cash EBTDA rose 57.9% to $268.9 million and revenue climbed 24.7% to $1,336.1 million.

Net profit after tax increased 45.7% to $116.4 million and the operating margin expanded from 15.8% to 20.0%.

Management has guided FY27 cash EBTDA to $340 million, up around 26%.

The United States now produces about two-thirds of revenue, and that is where the growth is coming from.

Foolish takeaway

Broker targets are opinions, not forecasts, and a 90% implied upside usually means high uncertainty rather than free money.

What these three ASX growth shares share is a market that has repriced their respective multiples.

I would rather buy a company growing revenue at 16% to 25% after a 50% fall than chase one already compounding.

The post 3 ASX growth shares experts think could double appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• $10,000 invested in Zip and New Hope shares 3 years ago is now worth…

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Microsoft. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Microsoft and Nine Entertainment. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT) shares have fallen 14% over the past month, a strange result for a company that just tripled its contracted capacity.

The stock closed Tuesday at $12.52, down 23.28% over twelve months.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) has done no better, falling 19.03% over the same period.

Why NextDC shares have fallen while demand has not

Westpac moved its cash rate forecast to a November rise this week. One reason cited was the scale of investment in data centres and the renewable electricity they need.

That is an unusual situation.

The boom is now considered inflationary enough to justify tighter policy, yet the two ASX shares most exposed to it have been sold down hard.

That is because building data centres consumes enormous amounts of money before it produces any, and higher rates raise the cost of that money.

What NEXTDC actually reported

The FY26 result was the biggest in the company's history.

Total revenue rose 16% to $496.5 million and net revenue rose 16% to $405.0 million, above guidance.

Underlying EBITDA lifted 15% to $248.8 million, also above guidance.

Statutory net profit swung to a positive $82.1 million from a $60.5 million loss.

The forward-looking numbers are the striking part.

Contracted utilisation surged 202% to 740.1 megawatts.

The forward order book stands at 565.1 megawatts, more than three times current billing utilisation.

Capital expenditure hit a record $3,397 million and pro forma liquidity rose 58% to $8.7 billion.

Chief executive Craig Scroggie set out what happens next.

FY26 was the largest contracting year in NEXTDC's history. Contracted utilisation tripled to 740.1MW on a pro forma basis, and we exceeded guidance on both net revenue and Underlying EBITDA. Our Forward Order Book of 565MW is now more than 3.2 times our billing utilisation, and our focus is on delivering that capacity and converting it into revenue and cash inflow.

FY27 guidance calls for net revenue of $615 million to $640 million and underlying EBITDA of $385 million to $410 million.

That is growth above 50%.

But it also requires capital expenditure of $5.25 billion to $5.75 billion, which is the number that unsettles people.

Goodman is telling the same story

Goodman Group reported FY26 operating profit up 15.7% to $2.67 billion and operating earnings per security up 10.1% to 129.9 cents.

Work in progress reached $19.7 billion, and data centres now make up 78% of it.

Gearing is at just 6.5% with $6.4 billion of liquidity.

Group chief executive Greg Goodman described a market still short of supply.

Demand is structural across both logistics and data centres. Automation and robotics continue to drive logistics requirements while scarcity of power and land remains the key constraint on AI and cloud growth supporting data centre demand. Hyperscaler capex expectations continue to rise, with many customers facing undersupply into 2027 and 2028.

Goodman is targeting 9% operating earnings per security growth in FY27.

What I'd do with NextDC shares now

UBS has a buy rating on NextDC with a $23.45 target, implying 88% upside.

That is enormous upside, but it depends entirely on the company converting contracted megawatts into billed revenue on schedule.

The bear case is straightforward.

NextDC pays no dividend, trades on a price-to-earnings ratio above 100, and needs to spend more than $5 billion next year.

Goodman is the lower-risk way to own the same theme, with real earnings, a distribution and almost no debt.

Foolish takeaway

The AI data centre boom is not over, and the contracted numbers make that difficult to argue.

What has changed is the price investors will pay for growth funded by borrowed money.

I would own Goodman for the theme and NextDC only with a long investment horizon.

The post NextDC shares have fallen 14% in a month. Is the AI data centre boom over? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Experts name 3 top ASX shares to buy this week

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 5.2% in September to 84.4.

Any reading below 100 means pessimists outnumber optimists.

However, some ASX shares actually do better when households run out of confidence.

Why consumer sentiment is important for ASX shares

Assessments of family finances dropped 9.2%, and among homeowners the fall reached 13%.

Nearly two-thirds of consumers now expect mortgage rates to rise within twelve months.

The report stated the following of the cause:

The fall takes sentiment back towards the deeply pessimistic levels seen earlier in the year. Both fuel prices and interest rates again look to be driving the move.

Consumer discretionary shares were the worst sector on the ASX on Tuesday, falling 1.88%.

Trouble right? Well, the businesses that sell things households cannot easily cancel are in a different position entirely.

Woolworths sells everyday fundamentals

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) is the most obvious beneficiary on the market.

People trade down within a supermarket, but they do not stop buying groceries.

FY26 showed this phenomenon in action.

Group sales rose 3.6% to $71.54 billion and earnings before interest and tax before significant items climbed 12.7% to $3.11 billion.

Net profit before significant items jumped 15.4% to $1.60 billion.

The Australian Food business lifted sales 4.6% and EBIT 8.5%, while BIG W returned to profit after a loss.

Group eCommerce sales grew 15.9% to $10.6 billion and the final fully franked dividend rose 15.6% to 52 cents.

Chief executive Amanda Bardwell was clear about the challenges facing the company:

Looking ahead, while we expect the challenging economic environment to continue with household budgets remaining under pressure, our strategy to deliver low prices and the best range and convenience gives us confidence we can be first choice for customers while delivering for our team and shareholders in the year ahead.

Telstra sells the second last thing to be cut

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) is on the same side of the coin.

That is because nobody cancels their mobile plan because the Reserve Bank raised rates.

FY26 revenue actually fell 0.8% to $22.94 billion, which sounds unimpressive until you look further down.

Underlying net profit after tax rose 4.9% to $2.5 billion and cash earnings per share climbed 14% to 25.5 cents.

Underlying EBITDA after leases increased 4% to $8.3 billion, and management guided FY27 to between $8.5 billion and $8.8 billion.

Mobile income grew 3% to $11.4 billion.

The dividend is the attraction here.

Telstra lifted its full-year payout 10.5% to 21 cents and announced a buyback of up to $1 billion.

At $4.79 that is a yield of about 4.4%, or roughly 6% once franking credits are counted.

Foolish takeaway

Defensive ASX shares are not exciting, and they are not supposed to be.

But what they do is keep earning while the discretionary end of the market repriced 1.88% lower in a single session.

I find Telstra the better value of the two today, purely because Woolworths has already been rerated.

The mistake would be buying either one expecting them to rise when sentiment recovers.

The post Consumer sentiment is low. These ASX shares stand to benefit appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Zip shares have halved over the past year, but the analyst community has not budged an inch.

Every broker covering the company still rates it a buy.

What's more, the average price target implies the shares roughly doubling from here.

Why brokers are so bullish on Zip shares

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) closed Tuesday at $2.31, down 2.94% on the day.

Shares have fallen 49.12% over twelve months and 25.84% year to date. The 52-week range runs from $1.37 to $4.93.

All twelve analysts covering the company hold a buy or strong buy rating.

The average target of $4.56 implies around 95% upside, and the most bullish sits at $6.03.

UBS has reiterated a buy rating with a $4.70 target, pointing to the defensive qualities of the buy now, pay later model in weaker economic conditions.

The FY26 result behind the call

The numbers are part of the reason the brokers have not capitulated.

Zip delivered record cash EBTDA of $268.9 million in FY26, up 57.9%.

Total revenue rose 24.7% to $1,336.1 million and total transaction value climbed 27.2% to $16.7 billion.

Net profit after tax increased 45.7% to $116.4 million.

The margin story is arguably more important than the growth.

Operating margin expanded from 15.8% to 20.0% in a single year.

The company also completed $150 million of buybacks and announced a further $50 million for FY27, with available cash and liquidity of $246.5 million.

Group chief executive Cynthia Scott put the result in context:

Consistent execution has built the platform to deliver our next phase of growth and innovation. In FY26, we exceeded our targets with record cash earnings of $268.9m, up 57.9%, underpinned by material cash earnings growth in both markets. We maintained strong unit economics, expanded operating leverage and reinforced the value of our differentiated business model.

The United States is the whole story

Importantly for Zip, the American business now generates roughly two-thirds of group revenue.

Transaction volume and revenue both grew more than 42% there in local currency terms.

Active United States customers rose 9.3% to 4.65 million.

The Australian and New Zealand business is going the other way, with customer numbers down 8% to 1.88 million.

Management is winding down the New Zealand operation entirely to concentrate on Australia.

Guidance for FY27 calls for group cash EBTDA of $340 million, up around 26%.

The operating margin target is 20% to 22% and United States transaction volume is expected to grow more than 30%.

Zip is also weighing a share consolidation and a possible dual listing on the Nasdaq.

What has gone wrong for Zip shares

The share price fall has very little to do with the accounts.

Three things have worked against it at once.

The first is a broad sell-off in technology and high-multiple names.

The second is competition, with the buy now, pay later market crowded and margins under permanent scrutiny.

The third, and perhaps most important, is interest rates.

Zip lends money to consumers, which makes it geared to household health in both directions.

Consumer sentiment fell 5.2% in September to 84.4, with nearly two-thirds of consumers expecting mortgage rates to rise within a year.

All four major banks now forecast another rate rise before the end of 2026.

Foolish takeaway

The bull case for Zip shares is not overly complicated.

Earnings are growing fast, margins are expanding and the United States business is scaling.

The bear case is that none of that has been tested through a true consumer downturn. Only time will tell for Zip shares.

The post Can Zip shares recover? Here's what the experts have to say appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Deciding between extra mortgage repayments or extra superannuation contributions has always been a tough decision.

That being said, when mortgage rates sat near 2%, almost any sensible investment in superannuation beat paying down debt.

However, that is no longer the case.

All four major banks now expect the Reserve Bank to lift the cash rate again before the end of the year.

What a rising cash rate does to the mortgage side

The cash rate already sits at 4.35% after three increases in 2026, and the board next meets on 28 and 29 September.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) now expects a rise to 4.60% in November, joining ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), while National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) is tipping September as the month that rates rise.

The Reserve Bank's housing lending statistics put the average new owner-occupier variable loan at roughly 6.25%.

That means that every extra dollar that is paid off that loan earns a guaranteed 6.25%, tax free.

There are very few assets Australia that offers that combination.

What the tax system does for superannuation

However, superannuation contributions can be a more tax-efficient way to invest your money.  

Salary sacrificed contributions are taxed at 15% going in, instead of at your marginal rate.

Investment earnings inside the fund are taxed at 15% during accumulation and are not taxed at all in pension phase.

The concessional contributions cap rose to $32,500 from 1 July 2026. That is $2,500 more room than the previous three financial years allowed.

Why the answer is still not obvious

On the flipside, two things can make paying down your debt more attractive.

The first is access.

Money inside superannuation is locked away until preservation age, which is 60 for anyone born after June 1964.

A mortgage repayment made through an offset account can be withdrawn tomorrow.

The second is certainty.

The mortgage return is guaranteed and the investment return is not.

To illustrate, the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS) is a reasonable proxy for the Australian portion of most balanced superannuation options.

The fund closed Tuesday at $111.50 and has returned just 0.82% over the past twelve months, which is a useful reminder that share markets do not deliver averages on schedule.

How I would think about superannuation versus the mortgage

The soft answer is that it depends on three things.

Your marginal tax rate decides how large the superannuation head start is.

Your age decides how painful the preservation rules are.

And your loan-to-value ratio decides how much you need the security of a smaller debt.

For someone in their fifties on a high marginal rate, superannuation is very hard to beat.

For someone in their thirties with a large mortgage and no buffer, the extra repayment usually wins on peace of mind alone.

Foolish takeaway

There is no universal right answer.

What has changed this year is that the savings from paying down mortgage side have become competitive at 6.25%.

Superannuation still wins on tax over a long enough horizon, and the higher contributions cap makes that easier to use.

I would make sure the emergency buffer exists first, then let the marginal tax rate decide the split.

The worst outcome is doing neither and letting the cash sit in a transaction account earning nothing at all.

The post Rates are rising again. Should you pay down your mortgage or top up your superannuation? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares have fallen more than 21% over the past year, and at least one broker thinks that is an opportunity.

Morgan Stanley has a buy rating with a 12-month price target of $12.80.

Qantas shares closed Tuesday at $9.28, which implies capital growth of around 38%.

Why Morgan Stanley likes Qantas shares

Qantas trades on a price-to-earnings ratio of 11 with a 3.87% fully franked dividend yield.

That is one of the cheaper multiples in the S&P/ASX 200 (ASX: XJO).

Qantas' operating momentum is also better than the share price suggests.

Management expects total unit revenue across domestic and international to rise between 8% and 10% in the first half of FY27.

Qantas Loyalty earnings are forecast to grow 5% to 7%, and the division already lifted underlying EBIT 12% in FY26.

The first Project Sunrise A350-1000ULR arrives in April, with the first non-stop Sydney to London service launching in October.

What Qantas shares earned in FY26

The full-year result was a step backwards: Underlying profit before tax fell $330 million to $2.06 billion.

Statutory profit after tax declined $316 million to $1.29 billion.

Underlying earnings per share dropped 14 cents to 96 cents.

Almost all of that decline has a single cause.

The conflict in the Middle East produced a net impact of $420 million on the FY26 result, driven by record fuel prices and route disruption.

Strip that out and the underlying business actually grew.

What's more, shareholders were still paid. The final fully franked dividend was 19.8 cents per share, taking total FY26 dividends to $600 million.

Net capital expenditure rose 3% to $4.0 billion and 17 new aircraft were delivered.

Net debt increased to $6.2 billion, which remains inside the target range, and a planned $150 million buyback was cancelled.

Chief executive Vanessa Hudson was optimistic about the year:

This has been another year of progress, with customer satisfaction at its highest in a decade and world-leading operational performance, even as the aviation industry faced record high fuel costs and disruption from the conflict in the Middle East. We came through it with a strong result, which is what allows us to continue investing in the largest fleet renewal in our history and deliver more for our customers, people and shareholders.

What Qantas shares could pay from here

Reassuringly, the dividend outlook is steadier than the earnings outlook.

Commsec projections have the airline holding its annual dividend at 39.6 cents in FY27.

That would be a 4.25% yield, or roughly 6% grossed up with franking credits.

The same projections point to 43.1 cents in FY28 and 49.6 cents in FY29.

For an airline, that is an unusually respectable income profile.

The risk facing Qantas

Oil is a key input whose volatility continues to impact Qantas.

Brent crude settled at US$97.31 a barrel on Monday after another escalation between the United States and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz.

Every dollar on the oil price flows almost directly into the airline's largest controllable cost.

Weakening households are the second risk.

Consumer sentiment fell 5.2% in September to 84.4, and discretionary travel is the sort of spending that gets deferred.

Qantas says international demand remains strong, helped by customers redirecting away from the Middle East, but that is a fragile advantage.

Foolish takeaway

Morgan Stanley's target implies the market is treating thr fuel shock as permanent.

That may prove too pessimistic, because the fleet renewal, the Loyalty division and the unit revenue guidance all point in a more positive direction.

At 11 times earnings with a 6% grossed-up yield in prospect, Qantas shares are at least being priced for the risk, leaving potentially plenty of upside on the table.

The post Morgan Stanley tips Qantas shares to climb 38% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 (ASX: XJO) has fallen to a six-week low. The question is: why?

Australians have decided that interest rates are going up again.

The index lost a flat 1% on Tuesday to finish at 8,920.8 points.

That leaves the market back below 9,000 points and more than 3% below where it traded in mid-August.

What fell on the ASX 200

The damage was not spread evenly across the market.

Consumer discretionary shares were the worst sector by a wide margin, falling 1.88%.

Technology shares dropped 1.76% and financials lost 1.63%.

Listed property fell 1.46%.

Utilities were the only sector to post a meaningful gain, rising 0.59%.

Looking more deeply into this, that pattern seems like a textbook interest rate reaction.

Investors sold anything that depends on household spending and bought the things that behave like bonds.

Consumer sentiment did the damage

The trigger arrived before the market opened.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 5.2% in September to 84.4.

Any reading below 100 means pessimists outnumber optimists, so 84.4 is a weak result.

The report itself was blunt about the cause.

The fall takes sentiment back towards the deeply pessimistic levels seen earlier in the year. Both fuel prices and interest rates again look to be driving the move.

Nearly two-thirds of consumers now expect mortgage rates to rise within twelve months.

Assessments of family finances dropped 9.2%, and among homeowners the fall was 13%.

Westpac then moved its own forecast to a November rate rise, joining ANZ and CommBank.

That followed June quarter national accounts showing the economy growing 0.4% for the quarter and 2.1% over the year.

JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman are wearing it

Two retailers show what all of this looks like at the company level.

JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH) shares fell 2.25% on Tuesday to $66.07.

That is a fresh 52-week low, and the shares are now down 42.8% over twelve months.

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN) shares closed flat at $4.32.

They are just above a 52-week low of $4.15 and are down 41.3% over the year.

The FY26 results do not explain those falls

Despite this sell-off, both companies actually posted reasonably strong results.

JB Hi-Fi lifted FY26 revenue 4.8% to $11.06 billion and net profit after tax 6% to $489.9 million.

Earnings before interest and tax rose 5.8% to $734.4 million.

The total dividend jumped 22.5% to 337 cents per share fully franked, and the company finished the year with $206.5 million of net cash and no interest-bearing debt.

For its part, Harvey Norman grew total system sales 3.1% to $9.64 billion and statutory profit before tax 4.9% to $790.29 million.

Its fully franked dividend rose 3.8% to 27.5 cents per share.

Chair Gerry Harvey said of the results:

FY26 delivered growth in operating earnings, continued international expansion and strong franchise profitability. With total assets approaching $9 billion, net assets approaching $5 billion, substantial property ownership and low gearing, we remain well positioned to deliver long-term sustainable growth for our shareholders.

Foolish takeaway

A 1% fall is not a crash, and the ASX 200 remains only modestly below its August level.

What changed on Tuesday was the assumptions behind the market.

Investors had been pricing in a pause, and they are now pricing in a hike.

The post Why the ASX 200 just hit a 6-week low appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Downgrade alert! 5 ASX 200 shares downgraded by experts this week
• ASX retail shares are down 13% in 2026. Here's what Morgan Stanley is worried about
• Which ASX dividend shares are buys for passive income?
• JB Hi-Fi vs Harvey Norman: Which dividend stock wins?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Harvey Norman. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX bank shares fell hard on Tuesday, with the bad news coming from the banks' own economists.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shifted its forecast to a November rate rise, taking the cash rate to 4.60%.

That means all four majors now expect the Reserve Bank to tighten again this year.

The financials sector dropped 1.63% on the day.

What higher rates actually do to ASX bank shares

The instinct is that rate rises are good for banks, and that is only half true.

Higher rates let banks reprice deposits more slowly than loans, which supports margins for a period.

However, they also slow credit growth, lift arrears and eventually raise bad debt charges.

The most recent results show margins remain stable.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia's (ASX: CBA) FY26 net interest margin came in at 2.05%, three basis points lower than FY25.

Westpac held its margin steady at 1.89% in the June quarter.

National Australia Bank Ltd's (ASX: NAB) margin slipped two basis points to 1.79%, whereas that of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) rose one basis point to 1.54%.

Loan losses are also creeping up.

CommBank's loan impairment expense rose 9% to $788 million in FY26.

NAB booked $299 million of credit impairment charges in the third quarter.

What the majors are actually earning

CommBank remains the standout on profitability.

Cash net profit after tax lifted 7% to $11.0 billion in FY26, on operating income of $30.2 billion.

Cash return on equity reached 14.0% and the full-year dividend rose to $5.05 per share fully franked.

Its common equity tier one ratio finished the year at 12.0%.

The quarterly updates from the other three were steadier.

Westpac reported $1.8 billion of net profit excluding notable items, with a 12.1% capital ratio.

NAB delivered $1.83 billion of cash earnings and an 11.93% capital ratio.

ANZ posted $1.90 billion of cash profit in its own third quarter update.

What you are paying for ASX bank shares today

When looking at valuations, this is where the argument becomes more difficult to justify.

CommBank closed Tuesday at $158.69 on a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.6 and a 3.15% yield.

NAB finished at $38.87 on 19.6 times earnings with a 4.33% yield.

ANZ ended at $36.94 and Westpac at $34.58, yielding 4.37% and 4.41% respectively.

Fund manager Wilson Asset Management remains underweight the sector.

Its team pointed to slowing credit growth, rising competition and some deterioration in loan book quality.

Business lending pipelines were described as relatively healthy, while mortgage growth expectations have been revised lower.

Foolish takeaway

A rate hike is not necessarily a huge positive for ASX bank shares, and Tuesday's selling made that point.

The sector is being asked to grow earnings while credit growth slows and households tighten.

I find NAB, ANZ and Westpac far easier to justify than CommBank at 24.6 times earnings.

The yields on those three are genuinely useful, and the capital positions are strong enough to fund them.

What I would not do is buy ASX bank shares purely because the cash rate is heading higher, because the last three hikes have not lifted a single major's margin.

The post All 4 big banks now expect a rate hike. What does this mean for ASX bank shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 7 ASX 200 shares with reaffirmed buy ratings this week
• Starting with $20,000, how to build a portfolio generating $5,000 a year in passive income
• Telstra vs NAB: Which ASX blue chip is the better buy?
• 6 ASX 200 shares boosted by brokers this week
• 3 ASX shares I'd buy for income and growth in retirement

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Choosing ASX dividend shares gets harder when the cash rate is looking like increasing.

All four major banks now expect the Reserve Bank to tighten again this year.

A term deposit paying close to 5% becomes a competitor for income money.

The three companies below each deal with that problem in different ways.

1. Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG)

Macquarie Group is the one of the few companies that benefits from higher rates.

The company earns on client cash balances, and its markets businesses tend to do better when volatility rises.

FY26 net profit rose 30% to $4.85 billion and earnings per share climbed 30% to $12.77.

Return on equity recovered to 14.0% and assets under management reached $748 billion.

The full-year dividend was $7.00 per share, though franked at only 35%.

Today, the shares trade on a price-to-earnings ratio near 19.9 with a 2.78% yield.

The trade-off is a dividend that grows with earnings.

2. Transurban Group (ASX: TCL)

Transurban Group is the classic rate-sensitive income stock, and it has been treated accordingly.

The shares closed at $13.63, within a few cents of a 52-week low, and are down 4.82% over twelve months.

The trailing yield is 5.01%.

Despite all of this, the company's operating result was solid.

Proportional toll revenue rose 6.7% to $3,982 million and proportional EBITDA rose 7.5% to $3,063 million.

Free cash increased 5.1% to $2,111 million.

The FY26 distribution was 69.0 cents per security, up 6.2%, and management has guided to 72 cents in FY27.

Proportional drawn debt sits at $27.1 billion with gearing of 37.4%.

The weighted average cost of Australian dollar debt is 4.8% and 87.8% of debt is hedged.

That hedging is what buys the company time if rates keep climbing.

Toll escalation is linked to inflation, so the same forces pushing rates higher also lift Transurban's revenue.

Chief executive Michelle Jablko noted that despite the macroeconomic backdrop the group's roads proved relatively resilient through the year.

3. APA Group (ASX: APA)

APA Group has been the best performer of the three, rising 22.23% over twelve months to $10.83.

The company's dividend yield is 5.32%, though franked at only about 31%.

FY26 underlying EBITDA rose 8.3% to $2,183 million, above the midpoint of guidance.

Free cash flow rose 3.2% to $1,118 million and the distribution lifted 1.8% to 58.0 cents per security.

FY27 guidance calls for EBITDA of $2,260 million to $2,340 million and a 59.0 cent distribution.

The organic growth pipeline has expanded to roughly $3.5 billion.

Chief executive Adam Watson summed it up.

Our underlying earnings were up 8.3% and above the mid-point of guidance, supported by new assets and ongoing strong operational performance.

The catch is the price.

Brokers are split between hold and sell ratings, with an average target below the current share price.

Foolish takeaway

The instinct when rates rise is to sell every yield stock in sight.

That is too blunt, because these three respond to the same cash rate in opposite directions.

I would rather own a 5% distribution that grows with inflation than a term deposit that does not.

Transurban is the ASX dividend shares idea I find most interesting today, purely because the market has already marked it down.

Macquarie is the one I would be happiest holding if the Reserve Bank continues to look to increase rates.

The post Top 3 ASX dividend shares to buy if interest rates go up appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Starting with $20,000, how to build a portfolio generating $5,000 a year in passive income
• 2 ASX dividend shares raising dividends like clockwork
• Which ASX dividend shares are buys for passive income?
• Why Macquarie's $321 million Shield problem is back in court
• 5 ASX shares I'd recommend to beginners

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group and Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Uranium ASX shares spent two years being talked about, but have only recently started delivering.

The spot price of uranium sits near US$89.50 a pound after touching US$100 in January.

More importantly, the long-term contract price is US$97 a pound, its highest level in more than eighteen years.

Why uranium ASX shares are moving again

Two forces are doing the work.

The first is supply.

Kazatomprom, the world's largest producer, has delayed its sulphuric acid plant, with commissioning now expected to be somewhere between late 2027 and early 2028.

Utilities have responded by contracting supply as far out as 2034.

The second is demand.

The World Nuclear Association's fuel report projects that reactor requirements will rise from about 68,920 tonnes of uranium in 2025 to more than 150,000 tonnes by 2040.

The Association was direct about what that implies:

As existing mines face a depletion of resources in the middle of the next decade, the need for new primary uranium supply becomes even more pressing.

With that in mind, here are three ASSX shares that are well-positioned to benefit from this trend.

1. Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN)

Paladin Energy is the only clean producer of the three.

FY26 revenue rose 71% to US$304.3 million and gross profit reached US$52.2 million, against a gross loss a year earlier.

The company's Langer Heinrich mine produced 4.82 million pounds, at the top of guidance.

The cost was US$43.3 a pound against a realised price of US$70.0.

The company still recorded a net loss of US$9.1 million, against a US$76.5 million loss in FY25.

FY27 guidance points to 5.1 million to 5.6 million pounds at a cost of US$44 to US$48 a pound.

Chief executive Paul Hemburrow said of the results:

We successfully completed the ramp-up of Langer Heinrich Mine in Namibia, delivering annual production of 4.82 million pounds of U3O8 and sales of 4.35 million pounds.

What are the brokers saying? Bell Potter rates Paladin Energy shares a buy with a $14.80 target, while JP Morgan has a sell and a $9.10 target.

2. Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE)

Boss Energy turned its first profit in FY26 and then told the market FY27 would be harder.

Revenue doubled to $151.1 million, and net profit after tax came in at $2.5 million.

Honeymoon produced 1.41 million pounds at an all-in sustaining cost of $61 a pound.

Then came the new feasibility study.

The mineral resource was cut 26% to 20.8 million pounds, and FY27 guidance calls for production of 1.25 to 1.3 million pounds at an all-in sustaining cost of $83 to $92 a pound.

Production down, costs up, and the shares fell 14% on the day.

Chief executive Matt Dusci said:

FY 2027 is a transitional year. It builds the foundations for Honeymoon's production ramp up and long-term value.

3. Lotus Resources Ltd (ASX: LOT)

Lotus Resources is the highest-risk name here by a wide margin.

The company's Kayelekera mine in Malawi produced its first yellowcake in August 2025.

It then lost time to a fire in April and an acid supply disruption in June.

In July, the company raised a $138.1 million financing package. That included $60.1 million of equity at 22 cents, a 67% discount to the last traded price.

The shares fell 62% on resumption, and Macquarie cut its price target from $3 to $0.25.

Managing director Greg Bittar is more positive about the company's prospects:

The Kayelekera operation is now positioned to deliver the final stages of the ramp up through to steady state production and this funding package completes the balance sheet reset.

At 25 cents, the market capitalisation is just $135 million.

Foolish takeaway

The uranium price is doing what the bulls said it would.

That does not mean every miner benefits equally.

Two of these three uranium ASX shares have just downgraded or diluted, which is a timely reminder that a commodity thesis and a company thesis are different things.

The post Uranium is back. Three ASX shares that give you exposure appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy, hold, sell: Temple & Webster, Kelsian, Boss Energy shares
• 3 ASX 200 shares forecast to fly 30% to 40% higher
• These ASX 200 shares could return 50% to 85%
• Down 17% in a week: What has happened to Paladin Energy shares?
• Sell alert! Why this expert is calling time on Boss Energy and Fortescue shares

JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended JPMorgan Chase and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Superannuation has now delivered four consecutive years of strong returns.

To what extent, you ask? Well, the median growth fund returned 9.5% in FY26.

Add the three years before it, and the total comes to roughly 44%.

That is a very good run by any standard.

So can these returns last for much longer?

What four years of superannuation gains added up to

The numbers are consistent across the board.

Chant West puts the median growth fund, holding 61% to 80% in growth assets, at 9.5% for FY26.

SuperRatings measures a slightly different option and arrives at 9.4%.

The three financial years before that came in at 9.2%, 9.1%, and 10.4%.

Four consecutive years above 9% is unusual.

Australians now hold $4.8 trillion in superannuation, according to APRA's June statistics, up 9.5% over the year.

Contributions reached $236.3 billion across the same period, up 12.8%.

The system is both larger and better funded than it has ever been.

Where the returns came from

Keen investors might want to keep an eye out for this metric.

International shares returned 25.5% in hedged terms during FY26, and they carry roughly a 31% weighting in a typical growth fund.

Australian shares returned just 6.2%.

Australian-listed property was the only negative asset class at -1.8%, while Australian bonds managed 1.5%.

So the run was not broad at all. Instead, it was built on offshore equities, and within those, on a fairly narrow group of companies.

Chant West's Mano Mohankumar was explicit about this trend:

Generally speaking, the better performing funds were those that had higher allocations to international shares, particularly where a larger proportion of that exposure was currency hedged.

What to expect from your superannuation instead

The real benchmark is the funds' own objective.

Most growth options target inflation plus 3.5% a year, which currently works out at roughly 6%.

Chant West notes that funds have met that objective in 73% of rolling ten-year periods since 1992, and its assessment of FY26 was blunt, warning that this level of return "should not be treated as the new normal".

The Australian portion of your balance is the part investors can most easily see for themselves.

By holding funds like the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS), which tracks the S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO), charges 0.07% a year, holds $26.2 billion, and has a distribution yield near 3.1%, investors can potentially replicate these returns themselves.

Foolish takeaway

Four straight years above 9% is an impressive run.

FY27 has started steadily, with growth funds up about 1.3% through the first seven weeks.

I would plan around 6% a year rather than 9%, and treat anything above that as a bonus.

The post Superannuation just had a fourth straight year of gains. Can it continue? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Do you invest in ASX managed funds? Here's something I wish I knew 10 years ago
• Why has the Mineral Resources share price fallen 12% this week?
• 4 most popular ASX ETFs revealed: survey
• Santos vs Woodside: Which ASX energy share is better value?

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.