Down 32%: 3 reasons to buy the BIG dip in NextDC shares today

A leading expert forecasts better days ahead for NextDC's beaten-down shares. But why?

NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT) shares are sliding today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) data centre operator and developer closed yesterday trading for $11.71. In morning trade on Tuesday, shares are changing hands for $11.51 apiece, down 1.7%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.5% at this same time.

Taking a step back, the ASX tech stock has also trailed the benchmark index over the last full year, falling 32.2% compared to the 1.7% one-year decline posted by the ASX 200.

Looking ahead, however, Shaw and Partners' James Bills believes that NextDC shares are well positioned for "attractive" long-term growth (courtesy of The Bull).

Here's why.

IT technician works on a laptop in big data centre full of rack servers.

Image source: Getty Images

Should I buy NextDC shares today?

Citing the first reason he's bullish on the ASX 200 tech stock, Bills said, "The company continues to benefit from strong demand for data centre infrastructure, driven by cloud computing, artificial intelligence and increasing digitalisation across the economy."

Then there's the company's fast-growing capacity.

"NXT is expanding capacity across key Australian markets and maintains a strong development pipeline to support future growth," Bills said.

And summarising the third reason he issued a buy recommendation on NextDC shares, Bills concluded:

While investment spending remains elevated, management continues to secure long-term customer contracts that provide earnings visibility. With structural growth tailwinds expected to persist for many years, NXT remains well positioned to deliver attractive long-term shareholder returns.

What's the latest from the ASX 200 tech stock?

NextDC reported its full-year FY 2026 results after market close on 27 August.

Highlights included a 16% year-on-year increase in revenue to $496.5 million.

And, as Bills mentioned above, investment spending indeed remains elevated. In FY 2026, NextDC reported all-time high capital expenditure of $3.397 billion.

On the bottom line, the company achieved a statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) of $82.1 million, up from a $60.5 million net loss the prior year.

Looking at what could impact NextDC shares in FY 2027 ahead, the company forecasts net revenue between $615 million and $640 million. On the higher end, that would represent growth of 29% from FY 2026 revenue.

Commenting on the company's performance, NextDC CEO Craig Scroggie said:

FY26 was the largest contracting year in NEXTDC's history. Contracted utilisation tripled to 740.1MW on a pro forma basis, and we exceeded guidance on both net revenue and Underlying EBITDA.

Our Forward Order Book of 565MW is now more than 3.2 times our billing utilisation, and our focus is on delivering that capacity and converting it into revenue and cash inflow.

NextDC shares closed up 2.1% on the first trading day following the results release.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Broker Notes

Mining vehicle at a mine site.
Broker Notes

2 ASX mining companies tipped to jump 52% and 87%

These two companies are primed for growth, brokers say.

Read more »

A doctor appears shocked as he looks through binoculars on a blue background.
Broker Notes

This ASX health technology company could more than double in value: Broker

A major new recruit was a coup for this company.

Read more »

Two brokers analysing stocks.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Megaport, Northern Star, Woolworths shares

Experts explain their ratings on these three ASX 200 stocks.

Read more »

A smiling woman sips coffee at a cafe ready to learn about ASX investing concepts.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Myer, Develop Global, Netwealth shares

Let's check out some new stock tips from the experts.

Read more »

Businesswoman working with laptop and documents in office, with virtual finance related graphs and charts.
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week

Brokers gave buy ratings to these ASX shares last week. Why are they bullish?

Read more »

REIT on wooden circles with real estate investment trust written above on a yellow background.
REITs

6 ASX REITs just hit 52-week lows. Do any brokers say buy?

Several ASX real estate investment trusts (REITs) have hit 52-week lows as the property sector underperforms the market on Friday.…

Read more »

A financial expert or broker looks worried as he checks out a graph showing market volatility.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: CBA, Capstone Copper, Codan shares

Let's take a look at some new ratings from the experts.

Read more »

a woman peers over a surface with a happy, curious look on her face with eyes wide as though she is overhearing something.
Broker Notes

5 ASX 200 shares brokers tip to rocket 25% to 77%

Looking for buy-the-dip opportunities in today's weak market? Experts reveal their buy calls.

Read more »