Owning Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares has been a solid choice for passive income in recent times, following the COVID-19 pandemic. Investors may be wondering what the upcoming dividends could be for shareholders.
It has been a volatile decade for the airline so far, with the Middle East events causing a big increase in fuel prices for the airline.
As we saw in the FY26 result, the company reported that was a Middle East net impact of $420 million, leading to an underlying profit before tax falling $330 million to $2.06 billion and statutory net profit after tax dropped $316 million.
This allowed the business to pay a FY26 final dividend of $300 million (19.8 cents per share), which combined with its $300 million interim dividend.
Let's take a look at what analysts think could happen with the dividends in the coming years.
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FY27
We are already a few months into the 2027 financial year, and we still don't know how the situation in the Middle East will play out or how long it could take. Travel demand and fuel prices could be significantly impacted, so we'll have to see what happens next.
When Qantas announced its FY27 result, the airline gave some outlook commentary, which gave some insight into what could happen during this new financial year.
The airline said that travel demand remains resilient as customers continue to prioritise travel. International demand across Qantas and Jetstar remains "strong", supported by customers redirecting travel away from the Middle East, while domestic demand is tracking "broadly in line with the fourth quarter of FY26."
Qantas said that domestic and international total unit revenue (TRASK) is expected to rise between 8% to 10% in the first half of FY27 compared to the first half of FY26.
With the above in mind, the projection on Commsec suggests the business could deliver higher earnings but maintain its annual dividend per Qantas share at 39.6 cents. That would be a dividend yield of 4.25% and a grossed-up dividend yield of 6%, including franking credits.
FY28
In the next financial year, being FY28, analysts predict that the earnings and dividend could grow further.
According to the projection on Commsec, the ASX share could hike its annual dividend per Qantas share of 43.1 cents in FY28. That would be a grossed-up dividend yield of 6.6%, including franking credits, at the time of writing.
FY29
The 2029 financial year could be the best of all for this series of projections.
According to the estimate on Commsec, the business could pay an annual dividend per Qantas share of 49.6 cents. That would translate into a grossed-up dividend yield of 7.6%, including franking credits.
Overall, it seems like the airline could produce solid dividend returns in the coming years.
