South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) shares have climbed around 1% on Wednesday to a fresh 52-week high of $5.26 a piece.
It's been an incredible success story for the ASX mining stock over the past two months, with the shares flying 34% higher since mid-July alone.
There have been several peaks and troughs, with the share price fluctuating anywhere between $2.55 in early September last year to today's high of $5.24. But overall, South32 shares have been among the strongest performers on the ASX so far in 2026.
They're now up 48% for the year to date and an enormous 101% higher than 12 months ago.
Image source: Getty Images
What is driving the latest share price rally?
Late last month, South32's announced a substantial jump in its ore reserve estimate at its Sierra Gorda mine. The update extends the mine's reserve life by another five years, to 2045.
The Sierra Gorda copper mine, in which South32 holds a 45% stake, is a large, open-pit operation in northern Chile. This major jump in ore reserves and resources comes after significant drilling to better define the orebody, providing more certainty over future production.
The announcement was shortly followed by South32's standout FY26 earnings result. The miner posted a 1% increase in revenue from continuing operations, a 28% increase in EBITDA, and a 55% increase in underlying earnings.
The strong earnings result meant management was able to declare a final fully-franked dividend of 5.4 US cents per share for FY26. That's almost double the miner's final dividend for FY25 when it issued a final dividend of 2.6 US cents per share.
Investors were clearly thrilled with the rally of good news and many have rushed to snap up the shares.
What do brokers tip next for South32 shares?
Going forward, it looks like brokers are divided about where the shares could go next.
Market Index data shows the majority have a buy rating after a recent rally. The $5.12 average target price now implies a downside of around 3%.
On TradingView, sentiment is a little more mixed. Out of 13 analysts, six have a buy/strong buy rating and another six have a hold rating.
Again, the average target price of $5.26 implies the shares are now fully priced.
The team at Morgans downgraded South32 shares to a hold after reviewing its FY26 numbers, and increased its price target to $4.90. The broker said it thinks the earnings upcycle is now reflected in the latest price. It also noted the stock has outperformed even the pure copper producers.
Elsewhere, RBC Capital recently upgraded South32 shares to a buy recommendation and raised its price target to $5.50.
