Why I'd buy and hold BHP shares for 10 years

I take a closer look at what could keep this mining giant growing over the next decade.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) is already one of the largest companies on the Australian share market.

That size can sometimes make it easy to assume the biggest growth period is already behind it.

I am not so sure that is the case.

And if I were looking for an ASX mining share to buy today and leave alone for the next decade, BHP would be high on my list.

Two people wearing hard hats talking with each other at a mine site, with two workers in the background.

Image source: Getty Images

Scale gives BHP options

One of the things I like most about BHP is the flexibility that comes with its scale.

The company owns large, long-life assets across several major commodities, which means management can direct capital towards the opportunities offering the strongest prospective returns.

That becomes particularly valuable in resources.

Mining projects can take years to develop, cost billions of dollars, and operate for decades once they are running. Companies with strong balance sheets and existing infrastructure have a major advantage when attractive opportunities appear.

BHP does not need every commodity to be booming at the same time.

It can continue investing through weaker periods, expand existing operations where the economics make sense, and take a patient approach to major new projects.

Over a 10-year holding period, I think that flexibility could be more valuable than trying to predict which commodity will perform best next year.

Demand should keep evolving

The global economy will probably look quite different a decade from now, but it will still need enormous quantities of physical materials.

Cities will keep expanding. Electricity networks need upgrading. Data centres, renewable energy projects, electric vehicles, construction, and manufacturing all require resources somewhere along the supply chain.

BHP's exposure to commodities, including copper and iron ore, puts it in a strong position to participate in that spending.

I am particularly interested in how its copper portfolio could develop.

BHP already operates major copper assets, giving it a platform to expand as demand increases. New supply is also difficult to bring online quickly, which could make high-quality existing operations increasingly valuable over time.

The important point for me is that BHP already owns the assets and expertise needed to participate rather than having to build an entirely new business from scratch.

I would expect income along the way

A decade is a long time to wait for an investment thesis to play out, so I also like that BHP can return substantial amounts of cash to shareholders.

Its dividend will move with commodity prices and profits, so I would never treat the payment as fixed.

But when conditions are strong, BHP's enormous operations can generate significant free cash flow.

That gives management the ability to balance reinvestment in future projects with dividends to shareholders.

For a long-term investor, I think receiving income while the company's asset base continues to develop is a valuable combination.

The risks are part of the investment

BHP will not deliver smooth results every year.

Commodity prices can fall sharply, major projects can run over budget, and changes in global economic activity can quickly affect demand.

There are also political, regulatory, and operational risks across the countries where BHP operates.

Those uncertainties are why I would think about the investment in decades rather than quarters.

I am backing the quality of the assets, the company's financial strength, and management's ability to allocate capital through multiple commodity cycles.

Foolish takeaway

BHP is the type of share I think makes more sense when viewed over years rather than months.

There will be weaker periods for commodity prices along the way, but the company has the assets, financial strength, and investment opportunities to keep moving forward through those cycles.

For me, that is enough to make BHP a share I would be comfortable buying and holding for the next decade.

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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