Lithium was by far the best-performing commodity relevant to Australian miners in FY26.

That run followed a two-year slump between mid-2023 and mid-2025 when the global lithium market became oversupplied.

Supply/demand finally rebalanced at the start of FY26, driven in large part by the green energy transition.  

Lithium is a key component in rechargeable batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), energy storage systems, e-bikes, and smartphones.

In FY26, lithium spodumene skyrocketed from about US$600 per tonne in June 2025 to US$2,270 per tonne in June this year.

The price has since come off quite substantially, falling to US$1,505 per tonne today.

This reflects more supply coming online as many junior miners come out of care and maintenance to restart operations.

However, the 12-month outlook for the lithium spodumene price is very positive, according to the Federal Department of Resources.

Lithium price to soar 63% this year

The department has just released its five-year outlook for a large range of commodities.

The department says the lithium spodumene price averaged US$1,532 per tonne in FY26.

For FY27, the department predicts a sharp increase of 63% to US$2,499 per tonne.

As with many other commodities, the department projects a gradual decline back to an average US$1,684 per tonne in FY31.

According to the department's outlook report:

Australian mine output is forecast to grow by around 8.8% a year to 2031, supported by expansions at existing operations and the ramp-up of new projects.

Australia's lithium export earnings are forecast to increase from nearly $10 billion in 2025–26 to over $17 billion in 2026–27 driven by higher prices and increased export volumes.

These are expected to moderate to around $15 billion by 2030–31 ($14 billion in real terms) as prices ease from current levels.

This is important information for ASX lithium shares investors because commodity prices directly impact earnings and market valuations.

Global lithium consumption is projected to grow by more than 11% a year to FY31, primarily driven by the adoption of EVs and battery energy storage systems, while supply is expected to expand by 7.3% per year.

According to the report:

Global EV sales grew by 21% in 2025, led by China and the EU. By 2031, annual sales are projected to reach around 17 million vehicles in China and 6.6 million in the EU. Growth in the United States is expected to be more moderate following the expiry of EV tax credits.

EV penetration in China is projected to rise from 53% in 2025 to 81% in 2031, while the EU rate is forecast to reach 56%, supported by vehicle emissions standards. US penetration is projected to increase more modestly to 12%.

The report flagged a risk that sodium-ion and solid-state batteries may eventually compete with lithium-ion batteries in the market.

China has imposed a 2% consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries from 1 September 2026, rising to 4% from 1 September.

Sodium-ion and solid-state batteries will remain exempt until the end of 2028, potentially supporting their development and adoption.

Which ASX lithium shares should you buy?

Morgans reiterated its buy recommendation on PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares this week.

The broker has a 12-month share price target of $3.70, implying almost 30% upside from here.

UBS upgraded Elevra Lithium Ltd (ASX: ELV) shares to a buy rating with a $9.10 target earlier this month.

This implies more than 140% potential upside over the next 12 months.

Bell Potter reiterated its buy recommendation on Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares with a $1.60 target last week.

This indicates potential gains of 130% ahead.

Morgans upgraded Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) to a buy rating with a $65 target last week.

This implies 45% potential upside from here.

Ord Minnett upgraded Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) shares to a buy call with a 34-cent target last week.

This suggests a potential 60% upside ahead.

The post Lithium price set to soar 63% in FY27. Here's why and the ASX shares to buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

UBS has released its latest "Top Picks" list, naming 10 ASX shares its analysts see as the most compelling opportunities over the next 3 to 6 months.

The list is selected from a wider pool of 30 stocks and is updated each month.

So, which ASX shares made the cut this time?

Resources and industrials are in hot demand

UBS says the August reporting season reinforced what it describes as a "capex over consumer" cycle.

The broker sees stronger conditions in areas benefiting from spending on data centres, mining, energy and defence, while consumer-facing parts of the market look less attractive.

Several of the stocks on the list fit that view.

They include Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD), which finished Monday at $8.17, Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) at $63.06, Orica Ltd (ASX: ORI) at $22.95 and Ventia Services Group Ltd (ASX: VNT) at $5.73.

UBS is currently overweight both the mining and industrial sectors.

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1) also makes the cut. The data centre connectivity company closed Monday at $17.13 after a strong run this year, up 45%.

The full UBS top 10

The rest of the list is a pretty much a mixed bunch.

Auckland International Airport Ltd (ASX: AIA) finished Monday at $6.99, while AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) closed at $2.48.

Healthcare heavyweight CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) ended the session at $173.18, while gaming company Light & Wonder Inc (ASX: LNW) finished at $125.30.

Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG) rounds out the list after closing Monday at $2.69.

That gives UBS a mix of mining, infrastructure, technology, healthcare, financial and consumer-related exposure.

It's also worth remembering these are short-term picks, not necessarily the stocks UBS likes best over the next 5 or 10 years.

The list can change quickly as share prices and earnings expectations move on the daily.

What is UBS avoiding?

Just as interesting is where UBS is more cautious.

The broker isn't keen on banks, consumer discretionary shares and real estate, with higher RBA interest rates and weaker sentiment making life tougher across those parts of the market.

UBS thinks that could lead to more earnings-per-share (EPS) downgrades in the months ahead.

That leaves the broker leaning more heavily towards companies exposed to business investment and infrastructure spending.

Of course, these are only 3-to-6-month picks, and UBS refreshes the list every month.

I'd be interested to see which of these 10 are still there next time around.

The post UBS names its 10 top ASX picks for the next 3-6 months appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lifted 0.92% in the final trading week of FY26. 

The ASX 200 finished the week at 8,844.4 points.

This is the second time in three weeks that ASX 200 healthcare shares have been out in front. 

A sector rotation appears underway as value investors swoop on blue-chip favourites like CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) and Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME). 

The healthcare sector appears to have turned on 3 June when the S&P/ASX 200 Health Care Index (ASX: XHJ) hit a 9-year low.

That represented a 39% decline over 12 months. You can read comprehensive analysis of why the healthcare sector struggled in FY26 here.

Since then, healthcare shares have increased 20% in just one month compared to an 0.7% rise for the ASX 200 overall. 

In a new note, top broker UBS said ASX 200 healthcare shares and US biotech stocks both rose strongly in June, commenting:

There was limited company specific news to explain this recovery, suggesting it was due to broader market forces including sector rotation.

Healthcare was the worst performer among the 11 market sectors in FY26. You can read more about the market's winners and losers in FY26 here. 

Now, let's review some individual stock performances from last week.

Healthcare shares led the ASX sectors last week

The CSL share price rose 6.05% to $121.81 last week, and it's up 32% since 3 June. 

Pro Medicus shares jumped 11% to $209.65 on Friday, and are up 31% since 3 June. 

Resmed CDI (ASX: RMD) shares ascended 5.39% to $30.50 last week, and are 18% higher since 3 June. 

Sonic Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SHL) shares rose 4.06% to $21.25 last week, and are up 13.1% over the month. 

The Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX: RHC) share price lifted 2.46% to $44.16 last week, and is up 21% since 3 June. 

The Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH) share price increased 5.87% to $124.96 last week, and is up 31% since 3 June. 

Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX) shares ripped 10.11% to $16.88 on Friday, and are up 38% over the month.

Respiratory imaging technology company 4DMedical Ltd (ASX: 4DX) rose 2.16% to $4.25 per share on Friday. 

4DMedical shares are up 12% since 3 June. 

The ASX 200 healthcare share was the best performer of the entire ASX 200 in FY26 after skyrocketing 1,786%. 

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

The post Healthcare shares lead the ASX 200 again as sector rotation gathers pace appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

As the new financial year begins, brokers are running their rulers over several ASX shares and adjusting their ratings and 12-month price targets. 

Let's take a look at some downgrades from the experts this week. 

JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH)

The JB Hi-Fi share price is $76,45, down 2.2% today and down 32% over 12 months. 

UBS downgraded the ASX consumer discretionary share to a hold rating on Tuesday. 

The broker shaved its 12-month price target from $85 to $83.

This suggest a potential 8% upside ahead.

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

The Evolution Mining share price is $11.80, up 2.1% today and up 51% over 12 months. 

UBS downgraded the ASX 200 gold share to a hold rating on Tuesday.

The broker cut its 12-month price target from $14 to $12.60.

This implies a potential 7% upside ahead.

Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC)

The Whitehaven Coal share price is $7.50, up 0.2% on Thursday and up 34% over 12 months. 

UBS downgraded the ASX coal share to a hold rating on Tuesday. 

The broker lowered its 12-month price target from $9.10 to $8.70.

This indicates possible capital gains of 16% over the next year. 

Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO)

The Judo share price is 90 cents, down 1.4% today and down 44% over 12 months. 

UBS downgraded Judo shares to a hold rating on Monday.

The broker has a 12-month target price of $1.05, indicating a potential 17% upside over FY27. 

Data#3 Ltd (ASX: DTL)

The Data#3 share price is $9.54, up 1.2% today and 25% higher over 12 months. 

Morgan Stanley downgraded the ASX tech share to a hold rating with a $10 target on Wednesday. 

This suggests potential capital growth of 5% over the next year. 

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32)

The South32 share price is $4.23, down 1.2% today and up 36% over 12 months. 

Morgans downgraded its rating on the ASX 200 mining share from accumulate to hold.

The broker cut its price target from $5 to $4.50, suggesting a potential 6% upside ahead.

Morgans said: 

S32 has agreed to sell its entire ali business for total consideration of US$5.6bn (US$4.1bn upfront), and transfer of US$1.2bn closure/rehab liabilities.

Our view on S32's aluminium sale is genuinely mixed. It leaves S32 a simpler and, in important respects, a better business, but also a smaller and less valuable one.

We reduce our valuation on S32's ali assets to in line with the agreed Alcoa deal… As a result we update our rating to HOLD (from Accumulate).

Turaco Gold Ltd (ASX: TCG)

The Turaco Gold share price is 48 cents, up 6.7% today and up 4% over 12 months. 

Morgans downgraded the ASX gold share from a buy to a speculative buy rating this week.

The broker slashed its 12-month price target from $2.19 to $1.18.

This still implies a potential 145% upside ahead.

The post 7 ASX shares downgraded by brokers this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Megaport report?

• Retail entitlement offer opened to raise approximately $309 million at $14.30 per new share
• Institutional entitlement offer recently closed, raising around $518 million with 99% take-up
• Combined capital raising seeks to generate $827 million in total proceeds
• Four new AI infrastructure contracts secured with a total contract value of approximately $458.9 million
• FY26 revenue guidance tightened to between $307 million and $315 million
• Pro forma liquidity post-offer estimated at roughly $287.6 million

What else do investors need to know?

Megaport's retail entitlement offer gives eligible shareholders the chance to purchase 1 new share for every 3.08 shares they already own, at the same price as the institutional component—representing a 13.9% discount to the pre-offer price. Shareholders who take up their full entitlement can also apply for extra shares up to 50% more than their entitlement under a top-up facility, though there's no guarantee all requests will be filled.

Funds from both raises will help deliver new contracts and seed an on-demand GPU pool to support global AI infrastructure, including major investment in NVIDIA GPUs and additional hardware. The entitlement offer is fully underwritten by Merrill Lynch Equities (Australia) and UBS Securities Australia.

What did Megaport management say?

Chief Executive Officer Michael Reid said:

By combining Megaport's global footprint of more than 1,100 data centres in 31 countries with Latitude.sh's platform capabilities, we are building a Globally-Distributed AI Inference Cloud designed to support AI at global scale. The exceptional 99% take-up in the institutional offer reflects the strong support of our institutional shareholders and their confidence in our strategy. We now look forward to our retail shareholders having the same opportunity to participate on a pro rata basis. We're just getting started. Game on!.

What's next for Megaport?

The retail entitlement offer closes at 5:00pm (Sydney time) on Monday, 29 June 2026. Megaport will use the proceeds to fund delivery of recent AI contracts, invest in its GPU pool infrastructure, and bolster balance sheet capacity. The company's guidance for FY26 has been narrowed for revenue, while other targets remain unchanged.

Investors are encouraged to read the full offer booklet and consult their financial adviser before making any decisions. The company expects to provide further operational and financial updates with its full-year results in August 2026.

Megaport share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Megaport shares have risen 33%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 1% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Megaport launches retail entitlement offer after $827 million capital raise appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Brokers have indicated continuing confidence in several ASX 200 shares this week.

Let's take a look.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

The BHP Group share price is $61.52, down 2% today.

BHP shares hit a new record price of $65.04 on Wednesday.

On Thursday, BHP and other ASX 200 iron ore mining shares fell heavily on news of ramped-up production at Simandou.

The Simandou iron ore project in Africa is the world's largest untapped, high-grade iron ore deposit.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its buy rating on BHP shares on Monday.

The broker has a price target of $67.50, suggesting almost 10% upside remains.

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1)

Megaport shares are flying on Friday, up 9.6% to $18.18 apiece.

The Megaport share price is the fastest riser of the entire ASX 200 today.

In earlier trading, the ASX 200 tech share reached a new 52-week high of $21.16.

Megaport shares came out of a trading halt today after the company completed the institutional component of a $827.3 million fully underwritten entitlement offer.

Earlier this week, Megaport announced four new AI infrastructure contracts worth approximately $458.9 million.

The contracts require approximately $369.5 million of capital expenditure, hence the capital raise.

UBS renewed its buy rating on Megaport shares today.

The broker raised its 12-month price target from $16.70 to $24.20.

This suggests a potential 33% upside ahead.

Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME) 

The Pro Medicus share price is $165.48, up 3.9% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 healthcare share has soared 21%.

Macquarie maintained its buy rating on Pro Medicus shares with a $221 target this week.

This suggest a potential 34% upside ahead.

Find out why another expert considers Pro Medicus shares the 'most defensively positioned software business' on the ASX.

AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP)

The AMP share price is $1.51, up 2.2% today.

This ASX 200 financial share has fallen 17% in the calendar year to date (YTD).

Citi renewed its buy call on AMP shares with a $1.80 target this week.

This implies potential capital growth of 19% over the next year.

IAG Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG)

The IAG share price is $7.55, up 0.1% today and down 5.5% YTD.

UBS reiterated its buy rating on IAG shares with an $8.80 target on Monday.

This implies a potential 17% upside ahead.

Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN)

The Qantas share price is $9.19, up 0.4% today.

This ASX 200 airline share has lifted 9% over the past month.

Goldman Sachs renewed its buy rating on Qantas shares with a $12.25 target.

This implies potential capital growth of 33% over the next year.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32)

The South32 share price is $4.64, down 2.2% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 mining share has ripped 14% higher.

Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its buy rating on South32 shares with a $4.85 target.

This suggests a potential 4% upside ahead.

The post 7 ASX 200 shares with strengthened buy ratings this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

However, shares in these three popular ASX companies fell after their 1H FY26 reports were released.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) shares were absolutely smashed and lost a third of their value, despite positive results.

Some brokers have already reviewed the numbers and updated their ratings and 12-month price targets on these stocks.

Let's take a look.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

The Goodman share price closed at $29.82 on Thursday, down 4% for the day and down 12.8% over the past 12 months.

Yesterday, Goodman Group reported a 1.5% fall in operating profit to $1.2 billion for 1H FY26.

The property group also reported an 8.3% decline in operating earnings per share (OEPS) to 58.5 cents.

The property group reported work in progress (WIP) worth $14.4 billion across 51 projects.

Almost three-quarters of these projects are data centres.

Management said it expects WIP to increase to approximately $18 billion by the end of FY26.

Goodman will pay a 15-cent interim dividend.

After reviewing the 1H FY26 report, Macquarie reiterated its buy rating on Goodman Group shares.

The broker has a 12-month share price target of $34.73.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) 

The Wesfarmers share price closed at $84.24 yesterday, down 5.6% for the day and up 10% over 12 months.

Yesterday, Wesfarmers revealed a 3.1% lift in revenue to $24,212 million for 1H FY26.

Net profit increased 9.3% to $1,603 million and earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) rose 8.4% to $2,493 million.

The operating cash flow was $2,491 million, down 3.3% year-on-year. Basic EPS rose to 141.4 cents per share.

Wesfarmers will pay a fully franked interim dividend of $1.02 per share, up 7.4% on 1H FY25.

Managing Director Rob Scott said:

Wesfarmers' increase in profit was supported by strong earnings contributions from our largest divisions – Bunnings, Kmart Group and WesCEF.

During the half, Wesfarmers' divisions benefited from productivity initiatives to navigate ongoing challenging market conditions… The divisions performed well, driving productivity to mitigate cost pressures and keep prices low for customers.

After going over the report, UBS reiterated its hold rating on Wesfarmers shares.

The broker has a 12-month target of $90.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) 

Zip shares closed at $1.85 on Thursday, down 34.4%.

Stock in the buy now, pay later operator is down 27.7% over the past 12 months.

Yesterday, Zip reported a cash EBTDA of $124.3 million, up 85.6% year-over-year, with total income of $664 million, up 29.2%.

Total transaction volume (TTV) rose 34.1% to $8.4 billion. The operating margin improved to 18.7%, up from 13% in 1H FY25.

Net bad debts increased slightly to 1.7% of TTV, up from 1.56% a year ago, but in line with management's target.

The number of active customers increased 4.1% to 6.6 million.

The number of retailers using Zip payment services lifted 10.5% to 90,600.

You may be wondering why Zip shares were punished yesterday, despite these positive numbers.

My colleague, James Mickelboro, provided some insights in his report.

James wrote:

With Zip shares having rallied strongly since last April, the combination of margin mix pressure, slightly higher credit losses, and a more measured second-half outlook could have triggered heavy profit-taking today.

Despite the big share price drop, UBS retained its buy rating on Zip with an unchanged target of $5.20.

The post Buy, hold, or sell? Goodman Group, Wesfarmers, Zip shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The latest decline means the shares have now dropped 9.55% for the year-to-date but are 0.66% above the trading price this time last year.

What dragged Zip shares lower so far this year?

Zip shares jumped over 11% in just two days of trade earlier this month after positive market sentiment for buy-now-pay-later (BPNL) stocks boosted investor confidence. But the hike was short-lived.

However last week, Zip shares plunged 13.24%. There was no news out of the company at the time to explain the decline so it was more-than-likely linked to investors selling off their stock and taking profit.

What's next for the business in 2026?

There have been plenty of ups and downs for the Australian financial technology company over the past year, but the business continues to show strong and improved earnings.

In the first quarter of FY26, the company said that its total transaction value grew 38.7% to $3.9 billion and income was up 32.8% to $321.5 million. 

At the time, the company said it is on track to meet its FY26 results target.

Meanwhile, Zip is also working on broadening its product range beyond the traditional BNPL options. In late October, the company announced that its US segment is expanding its partnership with programmable financial services business, Stripe.

Zip has said it is still considering a secondary sharemarket listing in the US which would reduce dependence on Australian markets and potentially introduce more opportunity for business expansion. A dual listing on Nasdaq could help the business tap into US capital markets and boost its valuation among US-based investors.

The next major update out of the company is expected next month. Zip plans to post its FY26 half-year results h on the 19th of February. Investors are expecting that the company will reveal news about whether the business is still on track, any news about the potential US expansion, and an update on transaction growth. 

Are Zip shares a buy, hold or sell?

Despite a lacklustre start to the year so far, analysts seem to be bullish that there is plenty more upside ahead for Zip shares. I certainly think the stock is a screaming buy for 2026.

Analysts at UBS have a buy rating and price target of $5.20 on the BNPL provider. The broker said that significant share price weakness has created a buying opportunity for investors.

Analysts at Citi also have a buy rating on Zip shares, and a price target of $4.30. The broker is predicting total transaction value (TTV) growth of 43% in the second quarter. 

TradingView data shows that the majority of analysts have the same bullish sentiment. Eight out of 10 have a buy or strong buy rating on the shares. The maximum target price is $6.11, which, at the time of writing, implies a potential 104.01% upside ahead over the next 12 months. 

The post Are Zip shares a buy, hold or sell in 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The ASX 200 airline share has lifted 7.15% in the year to date (YTD) compared to a 4.9% bump for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

Qantas may have outperformed the ASX 200, but it's delivered lower capital growth than many other ASX 200 large-cap shares in 2025.

There are 60 large-caps in total (market caps above $10 billion) trading today and 32 have delivered positive capital growth this year.

Of those 32 ASX 200 large-caps, the best performer is ASX 200 gold stock Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) with 133.5% capital growth.

The large-cap with the lowest capital growth is Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Ltd (ASX: SOL) shares with 1.8% growth.

So, Qantas ranks towards the bottom of this list with 7.15%.

What about dividends?

Of course, dividends are an important part of total returns alongside capital growth.

Qantas paid a full-year FY25 dividend of 52.8 cents per share (cps).

Based on the current Qantas share price of $9.77, that's a trailing dividend yield of 5.4%.

The consensus estimate among analysts on CommSec is for Qantas to pay a full-year FY26 dividend of 42.9 cents per share.

This equates to a forward dividend yield of 4.4%.

That's quite a drop, but still higher than the average dividend for ASX 200 shares these days.

So, when will you find out for sure what Qantas shares will pay in dividends next year?

Helpfully, Qantas has released its financial calendar for 2026.

Get your diary out.

Looking ahead to 2026

Here are the dates for Qantas investors to note.

Qantas will release its 1H FY26 results and announce its interim dividend on 26 February.

The airline has not specified the ex-dividend dates for 2026, but they are usually one business day before the record dates.

The record date for the interim dividend will be 11 March.

Qantas will pay the dividend on 15 April.

The ASX 200 airline will announce its FY26 full-year results and final dividend on 27 August.

The record date for the final Qantas dividend will be 16 September.

Qantas will pay the dividend on 14 October.

The annual general meeting is scheduled for 6 November.

Should you buy Qantas shares?

UBS has a buy rating on Qantas shares with a 12-month price target of $11.50.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its buy rating last month but lowered its price target from $13.40 to $12.60.

Ord Minnett has a buy rating but also cut its price target last month from $13.80 to $13.

The post Own Qantas shares? Here are the dividend dates for 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Here are three ASX 300 shares that have hit fresh 52-week low share prices, yet have buy ratings from the experts.

Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1)

This ASX 300 retail share has a market capitalisation of $565 million.

The Accent share price is 94 cents, down 1.05% on Tuesday. This is a new 52-week low.

Accent is an Australian footwear retailer that owns several popular brands.

They include The Athlete's Foot, Hoka, HypeDC, Platypus, Vans and Skechers.

After a trading update last month, Goldman Sachs reiterated its buy rating on Accent shares.

Accent revealed a 3.7% lift in sales during the first 20 weeks of FY26. This includes wholesale sales and sales from new stores.

On a same-store basis, sales were down 0.4% on the prior corresponding period.

Goldman Sachs analyst James Leigh cut his 12-month price target on Accent shares from $1.70 to $1.20.

This still implies a healthy potential upside of 28% in the new year.

REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA)

This ASX 300 communications share has a market capitalisation of $26 billion.

REA owns the popular realestate.com.au property listings portal.

The REA share price is $195, up 0.6%, on Tuesday.

Last Friday, the REA share price hit a new 52-week low of $189.14.

Morgans has an accumulate rating on REA shares with a 12-month price target of $247 per share.

This implies a potential upside of 27% in the new year.

After REA's 1Q FY26 trading update, Morgans commented:

REA's 1Q26 trading update benefited from a strong yield outcome (+13%), which helped to offset a softer new listings environment in the period (volumes down -8% vs the pcp).

Group revenue was A$429m (+4% on pcp), with EBITDA (ex assoc.) up 5% on pcp to A$254m.

Given REA is trading on ~42x FY26F PE (MorgansE), broadly in line with its 10-year historical average, and now with >10% TSR upside to our valuation we upgrade REA to ACCUMULATE.

Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN)

This ASX 300 financial share has a market capitalisation of $18 billion.

The Suncorp share price is $16.89, down 0.4%, on Tuesday.

Last Friday, the Suncorp share price hit a fresh 52-week low of $16.63 per share.

UBS has a buy rating on Suncorp shares with a 12-month price target of $22.

This implies a potential 30% upside over the next year for this ASX 300 insurance share.

The broker lowered its earnings forecast for Suncorp recently due to several weather events creating a rise in insurance claims.

The post 3 buy-rated ASX 300 shares at 52-week lows appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Customers are always attracted to good value products, and it sells them in abundance across multiple retail names. Pleasingly, its scale gives it the ability to achieve strong returns for shareholders, as measured by the return on capital (ROC) and return on equity (ROE).

When a business earns a ROE of more than 20%, it tells me that the business can deliver further pleasing earnings and share price growth in the future, assuming there are still areas for the company to invest the profit it has generated and retained.

How much earnings growth could it deliver? Let's see what experts think…

FY26

Following the release of the FY25 results, broker UBS stated that the profit was in line with expectations and noted that sales had grown for Bunnings, Kmart, and Officeworks in the first few weeks of FY26.

UBS says that Wesfarmers has resilient earnings, as well as a strong earnings before tax (EBT) and return on capital (ROC) growth outlook for Bunnings and Kmart, though the company's "elevated earnings multiple" has led to a more balanced risk reward.

The broker noted the following about Bunnings and Kmart:

…Bunnings enjoys strong revenue growth options based across category (share gains in existing, entry into new), channel (growth in digital enabled by marketplace) and customer (commercial ~38% of sales but 50% of the market), with this growth capital light. Bunnings reiterated it believed EBT margins could expand given investment, provided price investment continues such that it is chosen by customers. These factors support ongoing EBT growth and ongoing ROC expansion.

…Kmart was confident the drivers from FY25 would continue and that it could maintain share gains during more buoyant times, noting value is enduring and its Anko product development can provide value in different environments.

Based on that commentary, UBS predicts that Wesfarmers' earnings could grow to $2.84 billion in the 2026 financial year, with the operating profit (EBIT) margin increasing to 9.4%. That is a promising tailwind for Wesfarmers shares, if those profitability metrics do grow.

FY27

With pleasing profit growth predicted for FY26, the subsequent financial year could see another bump in profitability.

The 2027 financial year could see the company grow its net profit to $3.14 billion, partly thanks to an increase in the EBIT margin to 9.7%.

FY28

Profitability could improve further in the 2028 financial year, with net profit rising to $3.51 billion. Operating leverage could see the company's EBIT margin improve again to 10.2%.

FY29

The 2029 financial year is predicted to bring yet more profits to owners of Wesfarmers shares.

In FY29, the net profit could rise to $3.83 billion, and the EBIT margin is forecast to increase to 10.4%.

FY30

The final year of this series of projections could be the best one of all. The net profit could increase to $4.24 billion, representing a nearly 50% increase from the figure predicted for FY26.

The expected net profit figure is bolstered by the potential increase in the EBIT margin to 10.9% (up from 9.4% in FY26).

If these numbers occur, then the business has a very promising future ahead, and it's understandable why the Wesfarmers price-earnings (P/E) ratio has increased.

The post Here's the earnings forecast out to 2030 for Wesfarmers shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Siteminder is known for its global hotel distribution and revenue platform called Siteminder. Little Hotelier is an all-in-one hotel management software designed to help small accommodation providers. It helps its subscribers generate more than 130 million reservations worth more than A$85 billion in revenue.

There are a number of brokers that really like the ASX tech share. According to Commsec's consensus of analyst opinions, there are currently 15 buy ratings on the business. That's a very bullish view on the business, despite its higher valuation.

Let's take a look at why investors are so excited by the company.

Strong outlook for the ASX tech share

Broker UBS was particularly impressed by the company's recent FY25 results. UBS said the result ticked a lot of important factors.

First, it achieved the positive free cash flow milestone.

Second, it accelerated the annual recurring revenue (ARR) to 27% (up from 22% in the first half of FY25), with a reacceleration of the core business, while the smart products were added on top.

Third, it made good headway in terms of Siteminder's channels+ (C+) and the smart distribution platform (SDP) deployment.

Fourth, the "solid" topline result was not at the expense of cash burn, meaning profitable growth.

Fifth and finally, the company continues to make progress towards the rule of 40, which is a combination of its revenue and profit margin. It hit 21% in FY25, up from 17% in FY24.

UBS said the business is now being treated more as a tech company rather than a travel business. However, its performance was impressive despite challenging conditions for the travel sector because analysts feared the transaction component of the business may be adversely impacted by a global slowing in travel.

The broker then said:

Still early days for the Smart portfolio of products and we need to see ongoing momentum, as ARR uplift from SDP is replaced by C+ and Dynamic Rev+ (DR+), but positive to see good initial traction. We continue to like SDR's market leadership positioning in a tech market with plenty of greenfield opportunities.

UBS revised its forecasts following the FY25 result, suggesting that Siteminder's future financials could experience stronger revenue growth, provided that incremental revenue is reinvested back into the business.

Buy rating on Siteminder shares

UBS is one of the experts that has a buy rating on the ASX tech share, with a price target of $8.30.

At the current valuation, that suggests the Siteminder share price could rise by another 7.5% over the next year, despite the fact that it has risen 13% in the last month and 30% this year.

The broker forecasts Siteminder could achieve a positive net profit after tax (NPAT) of $2 million in FY26 and $23 million in FY27 as it reinvests for more growth.

The post Why these brokers are bullish on this high-flying ASX tech share appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It's true that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. But, it's also true to say that a high-flying business may not be finished rising yet.

We're going to take a look at what could happen if someone invested $5,000 into the business today at the current Zip share price and what could drive that return.

Strong momentum for the buy now, pay later company

Broker UBS expects continued strong revenue growth in the US for Zip over the medium term, with data pointing to strength in the first quarter of FY26.

Both July and August 2025 have seen an acceleration in app downloads in the US, with a 21% and 24% increase, respectively.

The August rise was the strongest gain since 2021. UBS also noted that monthly active user growth is strong, with 21% year-over-year growth in August 2025. The trends are positive and point to continued momentum in customer growth in the US.

If customer growth continues with a similar net bad debt level, then this "should be a positive catalyst for the [Zip] share price", according to UBS. The broker is expecting a strong FY26 first-quarter cash operating profit (EBTDA) result.

A forward adjusted cash price-earnings (P/E) ratio of 36x does not seem expensive to UBS because of the growth outlook, despite the rapid rise of the Zip share price.

UBS also said about the prospect for longer-term growth:

Supporting the longer term growth for ZIP, the whole BNPL sector in the US remains early stage with very low penetration of spend and well behind countries like Australia, providing a structural growth trend behind all players currently.

Forecast for $5,000 investment in Zip shares

UBS currently has a price target of $5.25 on the buy now, pay later business. A price target is where analysts believe the share price will be trading in 12 months.

With a $5.25 price target, UBS is suggesting that the Zip share price could rise by 13% at the time of writing, despite the huge rise already.

If a $5,000 investment increased by 13%, it'd deliver an additional $650 thanks to Zip share price gains, ending with the investment becoming worth $5,650.

The post By 2026, the Zip share price could turn $5,000 into… appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Being the biggest or strongest in the sector means the business can earn the strongest margins while still offering great value/great offerings to customers.

But, I'm not particularly attracted to companies that have relatively high prices but are likely to deliver slow earnings growth, such as Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) or Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW).

Instead, there are some ASX blue-chip shares that could deliver significant earnings growth in the coming years. Brokers have outlined two exciting options that have blue-chip reputations.

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC)

Broker UBS describes WiseTech as a global software solutions company that develops and sells software to logistics service providers in more than 165 countries. Its core offering is CargoWise, which helps customers execute highly complex logistics transactions and manage operations on one global database. Its subscribers include most of the world's biggest global freight forwarders and third-party logistics providers.

The company continues to make good financial progress. In FY25 alone, it reported revenue growth of 14% to $778.7 million, operating profit (EBITDA) growth of 17% to $381.6 million, and underlying net profit growth of 30% to $241.8 million.

In FY26, partly due to the acquisition of e2open, WiseTech is expecting to grow revenue by between 79% to 85%, while operating profit (EBITDA) growth is expected to rise between 44% to 53%.

UBS has a buy rating on the ASX blue-chip share, with a price target of $130. That suggests a possible rise of 40% over the next year. The broker said:

FY26 is going to be a busy year for WTC with integration of E2open (E2O), launch of a new commercial model (incl AI benefits), and launch of Container Transport Optimisation (CTO). This caused some indigestion with Cargowise (CW1) revenue growth slowing below 20% in 2H25 and not expected to ramp up to 20%+ until 2H26 driven by new customer wins and launch of new products. We maintain our Buy rating as the larger opportunity is still intact, just taking a little longer to realise.

UBS forecasts WiseTech's net profit could reach $244 million in FY26 and rise to $777 million by FY30.

Seek Ltd (ASX: SEK)

UBS describes Seek as the market leader in the online employment classifieds market in Australia and New Zealand. It has a buy rating on the business with a price target of $31, suggesting a possible rise of 9%.

The company also says it has leading online employment marketplaces in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand.

UBS said the FY25 result highlighted the strength of the business despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, with Asia being the key standout. The broker noted that the freemium rollout has progressed faster than management's expectations.

Seek is seeing positive momentum across its core key performance indicators (KPIs), UBS points out, with material increases in applications per paid advertisement, monthly unique visitors, monthly advertisement volumes, unique hirers, and placement share.

Meanwhile, Seek's ANZ region accelerated its yield growth in the second half of FY25, with 17% growth compared to UBS' expectations of 11% growth, driven by variable pricing, automation features, and an advanced advertisement tier, which were released by the ASX blue-chip share in April 2025.

UBS wrote:

We remain confident on ANZ's yield growth going forward, supported by new AI capabilities (SEK has more data than any competitor) for better candidate-to-job matching, with Mgmt highlighting 20-50% of all applications are from "recommend and notify" vs "search".

The broker expects Seek's net profit to reach $207 million in FY26 and rise to $477 million by FY30.

The post 2 strong blue chip ASX shares rated as buys by brokers appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The broker UBS describes Cochlear as an Australian company that manufactures implantable hearing solutions and other sound-enhancing products, accessories, and services. These include cochlear implant systems, bone conduction systems, and sound processor upgrades. Cochlear generates revenue worldwide, with a significant portion of that coming from the US.

Cochlear is one of the ASX's success stories, with the company claiming a significant market share globally. Despite its long-term success, the broker UBS still thinks Cochlear shares could deliver strong returns.

Exciting price target for the ASX 200 healthcare share

UBS currently rates Cochlear as a buy, with a price target of $350. A price target is where analysts think the business will be trading in a year from the investment call.

The broker is therefore suggesting that the Cochlear share price could climb by 25% within the next year.

UBS is forecasting the company's net profit after tax (NPAT) could climb from $458 million in the 2026 financial year and continue rising each year to $657 million by the 2029 financial year. In other words, the broker is suggesting the net profit could rise by 43% over the next four financial years.

The broker noted that a number of the company's value drivers remain intact.

First, there's the forecast high single-digit Cochlear implant global market growth. Comments from Cochlear suggest global Cochlear implant growth of around 9% in FY26, according to UBS.

Second, the ASX 200 healthcare share's cochlear implant market share is expected from the new Nexa platform.

Third, there's a likely recovery in the sound processor replacement rate and services revenue, though that's more likely in FY27.

UBS also commented the following on the ASX 200 healthcare share:

In particular, early feedback on the Nexa platform has been positive with surgeons mostly focused on the future potential hearing benefits from multipolar stimulation and further reduction in sound processor size. COH's segmental comments on revenue growth, including developed market CI unit growth >10%, suggest its FY26 NPAT guidance ($435-460m) is conservative, especially at the bottom end.

…This looks to be based on revenue growth of +5-11% vs consensus +11%, and a flat NPAT margin. We believe the bottom end of this revenue growth growth rate is conservative. In particular, other revenue guidance comments, including developed market CI unit growth >10%, "solid" services growth, "double digit" acoustics growth, implies group revenue growth of ~9%. Plus, comments around Services revenues are likely to be conservative given the challenges in FY25.        

Cochlear share price valuation

According to the forecast from UBS, the Cochlear share price is valued at 40x FY26's estimated earnings.

Time will tell if UBS is right about the size of the gains from Cochlear shares in the coming year. If the stock rises 25%, I'd expect that to significantly beat the ASX 200 share return.

The post A top broker thinks this ASX 200 healthcare share could rise 25% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The precious metal reached all-time highs in the current month after breaking through the US$3,700 per ounce mark for the first time in history.

Overall, the gold price has now risen by more than 40% in the past twelve months.

And riding this powerful wave are a host of ASX 200 gold stocks, including Aussie gold miner Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL).

Regis shares are changing hands at $6.02 apiece at the time of writing, marking a spectacular 199% surge from the same time last year.

For context, Regis has left the broader All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) in its dust, with the benchmark rising by 8.7% during the same period.

But can the rally continue for this ASX 200 gold stock?

Analysts at investment bank UBS have now shared their views.

Leading gold producer

Regis is an Australian-focused gold producer operating a portfolio of open-pit and underground mines across Western Australia.

Its flagship Duketon gold project consists of three operating centres in the North Eastern Goldfields region of the state.

The ASX 200 gold stock also owns a 30% interest in the Tropicana mine through a joint venture with Anglogold Ashanti PLC (NYSE: AU).

In FY25, Regis produced a total of 373,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of US$1,645 per ounce.

This production performance underpinned a year of record results.

Here, the company delivered all-time highs for revenue, operating earnings (EBITDA), and net profit after tax (NPAT).

Moving forward, management expects FY26 production to range between 350,000 and 380,000 ounces of gold.

And in the future, an operational ramp-up at Duketon and Tropicana could potentially boost annual output even further.

UBS viewpoint

Firstly, UBS appears to have a positive near-term outlook for the price of gold.

The broker lifted its forecast to an average of US$3,825 per ounce for 2025, as reported in the Financial Review.

However, despite this favourable setting, UBS believes that Regis shares might have run too hard.

It has now placed a sell rating on this ASX 200 gold stock, citing its sharp share price appreciation for the decision.

Instead, UBS sees better opportunities for investors in three other strong-performing ASX gold stocks.

Here, it pointed to Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD), Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU), and Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) as its preferred options.

Shares in Genesis have soared by nearly 180% over the past twelve months to $5.90 per share, at the time of writing.

Meanwhile, Vault shares have jumped by 91% and Perseus shares by 84% in the same period.

The post Up 199% in one year! Is it time to sell this barnstorming ASX 200 gold stock? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The benchmark index closed 0.92% lower yesterday at 8,662 points.

In July, the experts upgraded these nine ASX 200 shares to strong buy ratings.

Let's check them out.

9 ASX 200 shares with strong buy ratings

The following ASX 200 shares received an upgraded 'strong buy' consensus rating on the CommSec platform in July.

Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX)

The consensus rating on Telix Pharmaceuticals shares was upgraded to a strong buy on 31 July.

The Telix share price finished the session on Friday at $20.15, down 4.28%.

Bell Potter has a buy rating on this ASX 200 tech share with a 12-month price target of $34.

Worley Ltd (ASX: WOR)

Commsec analysts reached a consensus 'strong buy' rating on Worley shares on 31 July.

The Worley share price closed at $13.38, up 0.22% yesterday.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

The consensus rating on CSL shares was upgraded to a strong buy on 22 July.

The CSL share price finished last week at $264.05, down 2.53%.

Bell Potter has a buy rating on the ASX 200 healthcare share with a 12-month price target of $305. 

Orica Ltd (ASX: ORI)

Commsec analysts reached a consensus 'strong buy' rating on Orica shares on 22 July.

The Orica share price finished the session on Friday at $21.30, down 0.37%.

UBS has a buy rating on the explosives manufacturer with a 12-month share price target of $32. 

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC)

The consensus rating on WiseTech Global shares was upgraded to a strong buy on 22 July.

The WiseTech Global share price finished the session on Friday at $116.34, down 3.04%.

Bell Potter has a buy rating on the ASX 200 tech share and a 12-month target price of $135.

Air New Zealand Ltd (ASX: AIZ)

Commsec analysts reached a consensus 'strong buy' rating on Air New Zealand shares on 31 July.

The ASX 200 airline share closed at $116.34 on Friday, down 2.55%.

But wait, there's more!

Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC)

The consensus rating on Capstone Copper shares was upgraded to a strong buy on 22 July.

Capstone Copper shares led the market on Friday after the miner reported record production.

The ASX 200 copper stock was the fastest riser of the day, up 9.46% to $9.37.

Macquarie has an outperform rating on the ASX 200 copper share with a price target of $13.30. 

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

Commsec analysts reached a consensus 'strong buy' rating on this ASX 200 buy now, pay later stock on 22 July.

The Zip share price finished the week at $3.25, up 0.62%.

Blackwattle portfolio managers Robert Hawkesford and Daniel Broeren said Zip shares still have 'meaningful upside'.

They commented:

We still see meaningful upside through the ongoing penetration of BNPL products in the US which has a significant runway, sitting at only ~2% today, vs ~15% and ~20% in Australia and Europe respectively.

Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX)

The consensus rating on Westgold Resources shares was upgraded to a strong buy on 22 July.

The Westgold Resources share price closed at $2.53, down 1.17%, yesterday.

Macquarie has an outperform rating on the ASX 200 gold share with a 12-month share price target of $3.60. 

The post 9 ASX 200 shares attracting 'strong buy' ratings from the experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

By comparison, S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) shares rose by 0.6%.

What's happening with Domino's Pizza shares?

Domino's Pizza shares have been recovering since last week's shock news that CEO Mark van Dyck will be departing in December.

The ASX 300 consumer discretionary stock lost a quarter of its value on the day the news dropped.

Domino's shares slumped 26% to a new 52-week low of $14.80 apiece last Wednesday.

Investors were surprised, given van Dyck has only been in the job for a year.

He took over the helm in November 2024 upon Don Meij's retirement.

He has already stood aside as a director.

What now?

Stepping in to take the reins while the company finds a new CEO is Domino's chair and its largest shareholder, Jack Cowin.

Unsurprisingly, investors have a lot of questions about what van Dyck's departure means for Domino's Pizza.

The company is going through a significant operational reset, and this is not the first management change for the company.

In fact, van Dyck's resignation is the fifth senior management change announced by Domino's Pizza in 2025 alone.

Last week, institutional investors got a chance to question Cowin directly in a video Q&A call.

The transcript has not been made publicly available.

Cowin and incoming Domino's Pizza Group CFO, George Saoud (starting in September), were on the call with investors.

Morgans shares its insights

Morgans attended the call and said it was "incrementally more positive on the stock" after hearing Cowin and Saoud out.

In a new note, the broker said:

Our key concern following the departure of Mark van Dyck was that the turnaround at DMP would be pushed out another 12-18 months (3–6-month CEO search, another 3-6 months to join the business, and +6 months for revised strategy).

During the call, it was made clear the pace of the turnaround will accelerate under Executive Chairman, Jack Cowin. There was a clear indication from DMP that earnings and franchisee profitability should improve next year through significant cost out initiatives.

Following the call, Morgans retained its buy rating on Domino's Pizza shares.

The broker summed up:

Whilst management and execution uncertainty does remain, we think the risk reward looks attractive from here.

As DMP proves up a cost-led earnings growth profile into FY26, we expect a meaningful rerate in time.

What are Domino's Pizza shares worth now?

Ord Minnett has also released a note since the news of van Dyck's departure.

The broker upgraded Domino's Pizza shares to a buy rating with a reduced 12-month price target of $28.

As my colleague James reported, Ord Minnett thinks Domino's may not pay a final dividend to conserve cash.

Domino's Pizza is due to release its full-year FY25 results on 27 August.

UBS has also released a new note upgrading Domino's Pizza shares to a buy rating with a price target of $22.

As James also reported, UBS sees last week's share price crash as a buy-the-dip opportunity.

The broker noted that Domino's Pizza intends to cut costs faster than it expected.

The post Buy, hold, or sell Domino's Pizza shares after shock CEO exit? Here's what the experts say appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Coles shares finished the session on Friday at $16.24 and are up 0.5% in the year to date.

The company's chief competitor and Australia's supermarket sector leader, Woolworths, closed at $30.72 on Friday with the share price down 18% in the year to date.

As my colleague Seb points out, Coles shares are trading at a more attractive P/E ratio at the moment. But will that last?

Let's canvas the views of a few top brokers to see if they think Coles shares are a good buy at today's price.

Stable Coles share price vs. Woolworths wash-out in 2024

Bell Potter has a buy rating on Coles and a 12-month price target of $19.

The broker notes moderating costs, supply chain improvements, and a positive long-term outlook for the company, commenting:

Costs are expected to remain elevated but should moderate through FY24 and FY25 as general inflation tapers off.

In the medium term, 1) higher immigration should support grocery spending, and 2) Coles is entering a period of elevated capex intensity as it reinvests to modernise its supply chain and to catch up to competitors on online and digital offerings, which should help Coles maintain its market position.

Morgans has an add rating on Coles with a 12-month share price target of $18.95.

Equities strategist Andrew Tang explains why they like Coles shares:

In our view, the ongoing scrutiny on the supermarkets has affected short term sentiment in the sector, which we believe creates a good buying opportunity in COL.

While Liquor sales remain soft, we expect the core Supermarkets division (~92% of earnings) to continue to be supported by further improvement in product availability, reduction in total loss, greater in-home consumption due to cost-of-living pressures, and population growth.

UBS also has a buy rating on Coles with a share price target of $18.25. 

The broker says there are tailwinds for the business. These include a potential expansion of gross profit margins in 2024 and various cost savings that are helping it deliver "improved earnings momentum".

Then there's the outlier…

Goldman Sachs has a completely different view. The top broker says Coles shares are a sell and has a 12-month price target of $15.40 on the stock.

In a recent note, analysts Lisa Deng and James Leigh said Coles had under-invested in its digital transformation and omnichannel strategy, which is "the primary reason for structural market share loss".

They explained:

Even though the company is stepping up its investments in supply chain, we would like to see the company better illustrate its end-to-end digital strategy including sourcing, warehouse/distribution, merchandising, consumer data/analytics and loyalty to ultimately drive ARPU and market share gains together with cost efficiencies.

Deng and Leigh expect Coles to report lower comps sales and EBIT margin growth in FY25/FY26 compared to Woolworths.

They are also concerned about potential further delays with the Witron/Ocado project.

The post Coles share price holds firm while Woolworths tumbles 18% in 2024. Time to buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Whitehaven shares are trading for $7.66 per share on Tuesday, down 1.35% for the day so far. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 1.25% at 7,655.3 points.

Argonaut analyst, Harrison Massey, reckons Whitehaven's US$3.2 billion acquisition of the Daunia and Blackwater metallurgical coal mines from BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) has given the company new scale that few miners can compete with in the coal market.

Buy this ASX 200 energy stock, says expert

Argonaut analyst Harrison Massey is recommending investors buy this ASX 200 coal stock today.

As reported on The Bull, Massey points out that the two new mines are close to Whitehaven's existing operations and "should create synergies".

He said:

The acquisition will enhance the company's sales mix, with thermal and metallurgical coal production about evenly split.

In terms of size, Whitehaven has minimal competition, so the risk of any new big suppliers emerging in the short term is low.

Whitehaven managing director and CEO Paul Flynn reckons the acquisition is a "significant milestone" that will transform the company into a leading metallurgical coal producer.

What's next for coal prices?

Looking ahead, metallurgical coal commodity prices are forecast to hold up better than thermal prices.

The latest 5-year forecasts for commodity prices published by the Department of Industry and Resources show an expected average price of US$289 per tonne for metallurgical coal in FY24.

That's up from US$277 per tonne in FY23.

Meantime, the anticipated average FY24 price for thermal coal is forecast to be US$135 per tonne.

That's down dramatically from US$302 per tonne in FY23.

Looking ahead, both coal prices are expected to fall by FY29, along with many other commodity values.

The forecast price in FY29 is US$207 per tonne for metallurgical coal and US$115 per tonne for thermal coal.

What's next for the Whitehaven share price?

As this chart shows, Whitehaven shares have been trading between about $6 and $8 since February 2023.

The ASX 200 energy stock reached an all-time high of nearly $11 per share in late 2022 as a result of disrupted global energy supply chains caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

That disruption caused the thermal coal price to scream to its own all-time high of US$457.80 in September 2022. The price tumbled dramatically through to June 2023 where it levelled out.

The thermal coal price has traded sideways since then to close last night at US$133.75 per tonne.

Demand from China and India is keeping coal prices reasonably strong by historical standards.

What do other experts think of this ASX 200 energy stock?

Michael Gable of Fairmont Equities says Whitehaven stock "looks cheap" following the acquisition.

UBS re-rated the ASX 200 energy stock based on the deal's completion and its positive outlook for metallurgical coal prices.

It has a buy rating on Whitehaven shares with an improved 12-month price target of $8.70.

The post 1 ASX 200 energy stock with 'minimal competition' to buy right now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.