When Chinese factories are firing, steel mills consume more iron ore, copper demand rises, and the big three Australian miners capture the benefit.

This week, China's PMI data landed, and the picture it painted was more positive than markets had expected.

What the PMI data showed

Two separate measures track Chinese manufacturing activity each month.

The official NBS PMI, which surveys larger state-owned firms, came in at exactly 50.0 in May, down 0.3 points from April but still technically in expansion territory.

The Caixin PMI, which surveys smaller private sector manufacturers and is more closely watched by commodity markets, came in at 51.8, beating the 51.4 consensus forecast.

These figures signal a healthier expansion in the private sector than economists had expected.

Why this matters for BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue

The direct link between Chinese manufacturing activity and ASX resource stock performance is well established.

The iron ore price topped US$111 per tonne earlier in May and is currently trading above US$109 per tonne. This is well above the US$90 to US$100 range that many analysts had forecast for 2026.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are at all-time highs, with copper earnings exceeding iron ore contributions for the first time in the company's history.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) has also climbed this year as the ASX 200 rallied broadly on US-Iran peace deal optimism.

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), however, has been the outlier, lagging both peers in 2026 despite the supportive commodity price environment.

The three miners are not equal in this environment

BHP and Rio Tinto are both benefiting from the PMI tailwind, but through different channels.

BHP's growing copper exposure means it captures the manufacturing upswing through two commodity channels simultaneously: iron ore for steel production and copper for industrial and electrification demand.

Rio Tinto benefits from its diversified portfolio spanning iron ore, copper, aluminium, and lithium. All of these commodities tend to perform well when Chinese industrial activity is expanding.

Fortescue remains the most China-leveraged of the three, with a product mix skewed to lower-grade ore, which is more sensitive to Chinese steel mill profitability.

In a world where Chinese mills face pressure and environmental standards are tightening, higher-grade ore becomes more valuable, creating a relative disadvantage for Fortescue compared with its peers.

That dynamic explains why Fortescue has lagged BHP and Rio Tinto in 2026, even as iron ore prices have held up well.

What the CMRG tells us

Beyond the PMI, investors in BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue should also be watching the China Mysteel Raw Materials and General Index, which tracks steel mill restocking demand on a weekly basis.

The CMRG has been rising for three consecutive weeks, signalling that Chinese steel mills are actively rebuilding inventory, a precursor to increased iron ore orders.

That trend, combined with today's stronger-than-expected Caixin PMI, provides the most constructive short-term backdrop for ASX resource stocks in several months.

Foolish Takeaway

China's manufacturing PMI can reverse quickly if geopolitical conditions deteriorate or if Beijing's fiscal stimulus disappoints.

However, two consecutive months of above-consensus Caixin readings, rising CMRG inventory data, and a copper price that reacted immediately to today's release all point in the same direction.

For investors already holding BHP, Rio Tinto, or Fortescue, today's data is encouraging.

For those yet to invest, it is a timely reminder that the China growth story is far from over.

The post China's PMI data beat forecasts. Investors should be looking at these ASX resource stocks appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

But, it's clear to see that the business has been on a great run over the last 12 months.

It's normal for ASX mining shares to go through significant valuation changes because of how much commodity prices can shift in a few months, depending on what's happening with supply and demand, as well as the overall global economy.

Let's consider how much the ASX mining share has jumped and what has supported that.

Huge gain for the Rio Tinto share price

At the time of writing, over the last year, the Rio Tinto share price has risen 65%. That's an extremely strong performance considering the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has only risen 3.5% in the last year. Thanks to that gain, a $10,000 investment a year ago is now worth approximately $16,500.

Rio Tinto shares have outperformed both Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) in the past year, as they have only increased 45% and 63%, respectively.

It's rare for an ASX blue-chip share to go up that much in such a short period of time. Why has Rio Tinto do so well? I'd put it down to the strength of the resource prices, as well as the impressive production growth of iron ore and copper.

Commodity price and production performance

In the first quarter of 2026 it reported global iron ore production of 82.8mt, which was growth of 12% year-over-year and copper production grew 9% to 229kt. Alumina production increased by 6% to 2mt.

Another positive from the ASX mining share's quarterly update was that it's starting to produce lithium – it reported 12.7kt of lithium carbon equivalent (LCE). Lithium could become an increasingly important element of the business if it's able to capitalise on its lithium project plans and the lithium price remains as supportive as it is now for profit margins.

Rio Tinto noted how commodity prices changed, comparing the average of the 2026 first quarter to the average of the fourth quarter of 2025. The iron ore price was slightly higher, the copper price was 16% higher, the aluminium price was 13% higher and the lithium carbonate price was 84% higher.

When you put all of the above together, it's easy to see why investors are more exited about the ASX mining share now than a few months ago or a year ago.

But, after such a big rise of the Rio Tinto share price, there may be cheaper opportunities out there.

The post $10,000 invested in Rio Tinto shares 12 months ago is now worth… appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Tuesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to fall

The Australian share market looks set to fall on Tuesday despite a positive night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 31 points or 0.35% lower. In the United States, the Dow Jones rose 0.1%, but the S&P 500 climbed 0.25%, and the Nasdaq pushed 0.4% higher.

Oil prices jump

ASX 200 energy shares including Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a strong session after oil prices jumped overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 5.75% to US$92.42 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 4.6% to US$95.29 a barrel. This follows reports that Iran has ended peace talks and vowed to block the Strait of Hormuz.

BHP and Rio Tinto on watch

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares will be on watch on Tuesday after a strong night of trade for their NYSE-listed shares. Both mining giants rose over 2% and ended the session within touching distance of new record highs. This appears to have been driven by another solid rise from copper prices overnight.

Gold price tumbles

ASX 200 gold shares such as Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a poor session after the gold price tumbled overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 1.7% to US$4,513.9 an ounce. Traders were selling gold after US-Iran peace talks abruptly ended and sent oil prices hurtling higher, sparking inflation and rate hike fears.

Buy Artrya shares

Artrya (ASX: AYA) shares could offer strong returns according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating and $6.10 price target on the healthcare AI stock. This implies potential upside of almost 30% for investors over the next 12 months. It said: "The recognition of CCTA image analysis by CMS and Physicians to efficiently and effectively detect and diagnose CAD is a huge growth driver for image analysis providers. CCTA utilisation is surging and this provides a strong foundation for AYA's superior product features to capture material market share over our forecast horizon."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The global oil shock continued, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed with scores of oil tankers stranded.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates for a third time in 2026 last month due to resurgent inflation.

Softer-than-expected inflation data and 18,600 job losses in April suggest the RBA is unlikely to raise rates again this month.

The market expects the RBA to keep interest rates on hold at 4.35% on 16 June.

Changes to capital gains tax (CGT) proposed in the Federal Budget shocked some investors last month.

The 50% CGT discount for assets held for more than a year will be replaced by cost-base indexation and a minimum 30% CGT rate from 1 July 2027.

Existing investments in ASX shares and property will be grandfathered.

That means the 50% CGT discount will continue to apply to gains accrued before 1 July 2027 on those assets.

After 1 July 2027, cost base indexation will apply for future gains on those existing investments.

There is one exception under the changes. Investors who buy new properties will be able to choose between the two CGT methods.

Private wealth and investment advisory firm, Medallion Financial Group, says the changes may encourage more focus on yield.

For example, investors may prefer to accumulate more franked ASX dividend shares over growth investments.

Drew Meredith, a principal adviser at Wattle Partners, provides 5 tips for investors considering topping up their dividend stocks.

Most bought ASX shares in May

The following ASX shares and ETFs were the most bought by investors using the Bell Direct trading platform last month.

The rankings are based on order of net value of buy orders, minus sell orders, placed by Bell Direct clients.

Given the number of experts discussing the enhanced appeal of dividends under the CGT changes, it's interesting to see the market's largest ASX dividend ETF at the top of the buy list.

Source: Bell Direct

Most sold ASX shares last month

Source: Bell Direct

The post Top 10 ASX shares bought and sold by investors in May appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

While the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giants are increasing their exposure to copper, iron ore will remain a core revenue earner for the foreseeable future.

And the iron ore price has continued to defy bearish analyst expectations of a retrace to US$90 or even US$80 per tonne.

Indeed, the industrial metal topped US$111 per tonne earlier this month and is currently trading north of US$109 per tonne.

Adding in the surging copper price, and we've seen two of three ASX 200 mining stocks smash the benchmark performance this year. (Fortescue shares have struggled this calendar year, in part due to concerns over the miner's ambitious green energy expenditures.)

In 2026, the ASX 200 is down 0.9%.

Over this same time:

• BHP shares are up 34.2%
• Fortescue shares are down 1.0%
• Rio Tinto shares are up 25.8%

Which brings us back to…

Why CMRG matters for BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue shares

If you're not familiar with the acronym, CMRG stands for the China Mineral Resources Group.

Formed in 2022, the company – which represents the majority of China's steel mills – is backed by the Chinese government. The aim is to increase the nation's bargaining power over global iron ore prices by centralising purchasing negotiations.

As you may recall, earlier this year, BHP was locked in negotiations with CMRG for a number of months over potentially lower iron ore prices and increased use of renminbi in purchase contracts.

Those negotiations concluded last month.

And BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue shares could suffer a hit to their future earnings if CMRG succeeds in gaining greater influence on global iron ore pricing.

That's according to Tim Day, BHP's Western Australian iron ore asset president, who warned that CMRG will continue to push for lower iron ore prices, thereby increasing the profitability of Chinese steel mills, in future negotiations.

Speaking at The Australian Financial Review Mining Summit in Perth, Day said:

We're through it now, which is the good part, but it will be on again next year … and it is getting more complex [and] will just continue from here.

What does that kind of mean for the Australian iron ore industry in particular? You will see over time that this will continue to play that way, and the power and size of China just have that impact.

The post Buying Rio Tinto, BHP or Fortescue shares? Here's why CMRG matters appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Then came the federal budget, and details of proposed changes to the capital gains tax (CGT).

People already knew the Federal Government was considering CGT changes for property investments to improve housing affordability.

What they didn't expect was CGT changes on all asset classes, including ASX shares and businesses.

That changes the game, according to some experts.

CGT changes magnify importance of yield

Some experts reckon higher taxes on capital gains will likely amplify the appeal of yield over growth for some investors.

Private wealth and investment advisory firm, Medallion Financial Group, said:

At a high level, the changes tilt the playing field toward yield. If a larger portion of capital gains is taxed away, the after-tax return profile of growth assets; equities, start-ups, and expansionary investments becomes less compelling.

This might enhance the appeal of ASX dividend shares, or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

ASX dividend shares deliver a much higher yield than international shares, but they aren't what they used to be.

Historically, income investors have relied on ASX 200 bank and mining shares to deliver generous dividend yields.

But the average dividend yield for the ASX 200 has fallen below 3.5%.

And this may start looking a little weak to income investors, given risk-free savings deposit rates have now risen above 5.5%.

Savings deposit interest rates

Savings deposit rates are not only attractive now, they're likely to go even higher given expectations of further rate rises this year.

Some examples in the market today include a 5.75% ongoing but conditional savings rate offered by Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) to customers aged 18 to 34 via its Westpac Life product.

ING offers a 5.5% ongoing but conditional rate via its Savings Maximiser product.

These are not short-term intro savings rates that last only a few months.

They are ongoing, everyday interest rates that apply as long as you meet certain conditions every month, such as increasing your balance by a certain amount.

Those yields are certainly appealing, but here's the thing.

If you're a long-term investor, you are still likely to do better with ASX dividend shares over savings, even if you pay a bit more CGT.

This is because ASX dividend shares offer both capital growth and yield.

Savings accounts just deliver yield (which inflation then eats into as well).

So, remaining invested in assets that also deliver reliable growth over the long term is protective.

The following chart shows the current trailing dividend yields of the top 10 ASX 200 shares by market capitalisation.

As you can see, some stocks have dividend yields above today's savings deposit rates, while some are below.

And nine out of 10 have delivered solid average annual capital growth over the past five years.

Even if you pay more tax on gains in the future, growth plus yield still looks to be a compelling combination, depending on your goals.

Food for thought.

Top 10 ASX 200 shares: Dividend yields and capital growth

The post How do ASX dividend shares compare to savings deposit rates today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The US dollar index has fallen more than 6% since January 2026, reflecting growing concerns about US fiscal sustainability, trade policy uncertainty, and the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate normalisation.

For BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), a weaker US dollar is a powerful earnings tailwind, and it is blowing firmly in their favour right now.

Why the US dollar matters so much

The mechanism is straightforward but powerful.

Global commodities including iron ore, copper, and aluminium are priced in US dollars on international markets.

When the US dollar weakens, those commodities become cheaper for buyers using other currencies, which tends to stimulate demand and push prices higher.

The US dollar index has fallen more than 8% since January 2026, reaching its lowest level since 2022, as concerns about US fiscal sustainability and trade policy uncertainty have accelerated the decline.

The impact on commodity prices has been immediate and significant.

Copper has risen to trade above US$13,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange, a level not seen in recent history.

Iron ore has recovered above US$100 per tonne, supported by fresh buying from Chinese steel mills amid depleting steel inventories.

While a weaker US dollar also tends to strengthen the Australian dollar, partially offsetting the AUD earnings benefit for local miners, the net effect has historically been positive when commodity demand remains robust.

Current demand conditions across copper, iron ore, and lithium are among the strongest in years.

BHP

BHP is arguably the best-positioned of the three to benefit from the current environment, given its growing exposure to copper, the commodity most directly tied to the electrification and AI infrastructure megatrends driving demand.

The weaker US dollar has amplified the price gains in copper that were already being driven by structural demand from AI data centres, EV production, and grid infrastructure.

BHP reported a 31% increase in its average realised copper price to US$5.47 per pound in its March quarter update, a direct reflection of both the commodity price rally and the currency tailwind.

UBS recently reiterated a hold rating on BHP with a price target of $52, noting the company's fundamental quality while acknowledging near-term iron ore price headwinds.

Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto benefits from the weak US dollar through its diversified commodity exposure spanning iron ore, copper, aluminium, and lithium, all of which are priced in US dollars on global markets.

The company's share price has risen as the combination of a weaker dollar, Chinese stimulus expectations, and rising copper prices drove a broad-based re-rating of the diversified mining sector.

Furthermore, Rio's $6.7 billion acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, completed in early 2026, adds a further USD-priced commodity to its portfolio at precisely the moment the lithium price is recovering.

Lithium prices have risen enormously year to date in 2026, and with the majority of that revenue denominated in US dollars, a weaker greenback amplifies the AUD earnings contribution from Rio's rapidly growing lithium business.

Rio maintains a 60% payout ratio dividend policy, meaning higher earnings from commodity tailwinds flow through directly and predictably to shareholder distributions.

Fortescue

Fortescue offers the most leveraged and concentrated play on the weak US dollar theme among the three, given its near-total dependence on iron ore revenues.

Iron ore remains priced in US dollars, and every one dollar decline in the US dollar index tends to support higher iron ore prices as Chinese steel mills, who buy in yuan, face lower effective costs.

Fortescue shares have risen in the past year, reflecting both the iron ore price recovery and growing investor appreciation for its green energy ambitions under the Fortescue Energy division.

The company maintains a dividend payout policy of 50% to 80% of net profit after tax, with dividends paid fully franked twice per year.

This means that the current commodity and currency tailwinds should flow through to shareholder distributions when Fortescue reports its full-year results in August 2026.

For income-focused investors, that combination of a recovering iron ore price and a weaker US dollar amplifying AUD earnings is an attractive backdrop.

Foolish Takeaway

A weaker US dollar is not a guaranteed tailwind for Australian miners.

If it is accompanied by slowing global growth or Chinese demand weakness, the commodity price benefit can be offset quickly.

However, in the current environment, where structural demand from AI infrastructure and electrification underpins copper, where lithium is recovering, and where iron ore supply constraints remain intact, the weak US dollar looks more like a meaningful earnings amplifier than a warning sign.

For long-term investors in BHP, Rio, and Fortescue, the currency backdrop in 2026 is about as favourable as it gets.

The post Why a weak US dollar could be the best thing that happens to ASX resource stocks in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It's a question I was asked this past week.

And one I didn't have a ready answer for.

So, I did a little digging into how the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giants have performed since mid-May 2021.

Here's what I found, bearing in mind that the S&P/ASX 200 Gross Total Return Index (ASX: XJT) – which includes all cash dividends reinvested on the ex-dividend date – is up 49.2% over the past five years.

(*Note, all price figures are as at late morning trade on Friday, 22 May. Calculations are made assuming a full $10,000 invested in each ASX 200 mining stock.)

Rio Tinto, Fortescue, or BHP shares?

In no particular order, we'll kick off with Rio Tinto.

Five years ago, on 21 May 2021, you could have picked up Rio Tinto shares for $122.12 apiece. On Friday, those same shares were changing hands for $184.48.

That represents a gain of 51.1%.

But let's not forget those all-important dividends.

If you bought and held onto those Rio Tinto shares for the past five years, you'd have received the last 10 fully-franked dividend payouts.

According to my trusty calculator, that equates to a total dividend payout of $40.09 a share.

If we add that back into Friday's share price, then the accumulated value of the Rio Tinto shares you bought five years ago comes out to $224.57 a share, or a gain of 83.9%.

That would have seen your $10,000 investment grow to $18,389 today, with potential tax benefits from those franking credits.

Turning to BHP, five years ago, the Aussie mining giant was trading for $42.52 a share. On Friday, BHP shares were swapping hands for $59.82 each, for a five-year gain of 40.1%.

As for those fully-franked BHP dividends, since 21 May 2021, you have seen 10 of those passive income payouts land in your bank account, totalling $14.92 a share.

Adding that back into BHP's recent share price, the accumulated value of those BHP shares is now worth $74.74 each. That's a gain of 75.8%. And it would have grown your $10,000 investment into $17,578 today.

Finally, five years ago, Fortescue shares were trading for $22.30. On Friday, shares were trading for $21.63. That's a loss of 3%, without counting the dividends.

Now, if we add in the last 10 fully-franked dividend payouts, totalling $9.62 a share, then the accumulated value of Fortescue shares bought on 21 May 2021 is now worth $31.25 each.

Demonstrating the importance of those dividend payments, that equates to a gain of 40.1%, or enough to turn your $10,000 investment into $14,013 today.

And the winner is…

Rio Tinto shares narrowly edge out BHP shares as the better investment over the past five years, with Fortescue coming in a distant third.

The post Invested $10,000 in Rio Tinto, Fortescue or BHP shares 5 years ago? Guess which one has gained the most appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

That means ASX dividend shares may become more interesting than growth stocks if the CGT changes get through Parliament.

In a recent newsletter, private wealth and investment advisory firm, Medallion Financial Group, said:

At a high level, the changes tilt the playing field toward yield. If a larger portion of capital gains is taxed away, the after-tax return profile of growth assets; equities, start-ups, and expansionary investments becomes less compelling.

In contrast, income streams such as dividends retain their relative appeal, particularly where they are franked.

The most reliable dividend yields come from ASX 200 large-cap shares.

Large caps have a minimum market capitalisation of $10 billion. They are our biggest and most established listed companies.

They typically offer high dividend payout ratios because they are long-standing, well-established businesses with reliable profits.

At the top of the ASX 200 today is a mix of bank shares, mining shares, property shares, and others.

Let's take a look at the current trailing dividend yields of the top 10 ASX 200 shares today.

Dividend yields

Things to consider

A company's trailing dividend yield is calculated by dividing its total dividends (usually two) paid over the past 12 months by the current share price and multiplying by 100.

This means trailing dividend yields are based on the previous year's income and do not account for this year's market conditions.

For example, the impact of the global oil shock, which is raising input costs for many companies right now, is not reflected in current trailing dividend yields. Those rising costs today may reduce the dividend amounts some companies can pay over the next year.

So, use trailing dividend yields as a guide, not a guarantee, of future dividend income.

The post Thinking about dividend yields? Here's how much the top 10 ASX 200 shares pay appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It's another win for the ASX 200 company that continues to consistently outperform expectations.

Over the last 12 months, Monadelphous shares have surged roughly 72%, making it one of the standout performers among the ASX's industrial companies.

What did the company announce?

Monadelphous revealed it had secured approximately $120 million worth of new construction and maintenance contracts across the resources and renewable energy sectors.

The contracts include a new five-year panel agreement to provide mobile crane and lifting services across Rio Tinto Ltd's (ASX: RIO) Pilbara operations, as well as a three-year contract extension for sustaining capital services with the mining giant. The company also secured a battery energy storage system construction project at Fortescue Ltd's (ASX: FMG) Cloudbreak mine site and a new maintenance panel appointment with Port Waratah Coal Services in Newcastle.

The announcement reinforces something investors appear to increasingly appreciate about Monadelphous, that the company keeps winning repeat work from major customers.

Why repeat business matters

In engineering and maintenance contracting, relationships, safety performance, and execution track records are critical.

Mining companies typically prefer working with contractors that already understand their sites, systems, and operating procedures. Once those relationships are established, incumbents often have a meaningful advantage when new work becomes available.

Monadelphous has spent decades building those relationships across Australia's resources sector, and today's update suggests the company remains deeply embedded with Tier 1 operators like Rio Tinto and Fortescue.

That kind of positioning can be a powerful competitive advantage over time.

Exposure to the energy transition

The Fortescue battery energy storage system project marks Monadelphous' third battery energy storage system project supporting the miner's decarbonisation initiatives.

That suggests the company is not only benefiting from traditional mining investment, but may also be positioning itself to capture more work tied to electrification, renewable energy integration, and lower-emissions infrastructure.

As major resource companies spend money on modernising operations, contractors with proven capabilities could continue seeing strong demand.

Foolish bottomline

Engineering contractors can often be volatile businesses, particularly when projects are poorly priced or execution slips.

But Monadelphous has historically maintained a relatively disciplined reputation, focusing on operational delivery and long-term customer relationships rather than chasing growth at any cost.

After a 72% rally over the last year, the market clearly believes the strategy is working.

And today's announcement was another reminder of why Monadelphous continues to stand out.

The post Up 72% in a year, Monadelphous just scored another win appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

To illustrate, consider that the Rio share price has risen 36.5% in 2026 alone. That includes today's healthy 1.3% bump that we are seeing at the time of writing to $184.02 a share.

Zooming out, Rio shares are also up an even more impressive 65% over the past 12 months. Rallying commodity prices and high inflation expectations seem to be responsible for this desire from investors to buy mining stocks like Rio.

But many ASX investors don't hold Rio Tinto shares for the capital growth potential. Rio has always been a popular choice for dividend investors, too. That's thanks to a long history of Rio funding large, and usually fully franked, dividend payments to shareholders. Being a mining stock, these payments do tend to be cyclical. But they can be massive if Rio is enjoying an upswing in commodity markets.

With that in mind, let's dive into what kind of dividends one could expect from owning Rio shares today.

Rio Tinto shares: What kind of dividends are on offer today?

Well, at the current share price, Rio Tinto stock is trading on a trailing dividend yield of 3.2%. This hails from the two dividend payments that Rio has made over the past 12 months. The first was the 2026 interim dividend, paid out last month, worth $3.67 per share. The second, the interim dividend from September, was worth $2.22 per share.

Both dividend payments came with full franking credits attached, as is Rio's habit. However, both dividends were below those received over the prior 12 months.

Saying all of this, 3.2% is not what investors should expect if they buy Rio shares today, as it is only a trailing dividend yield metric.

We can't know for sure what kind of income any ASX share will pay before it tells us.  We can look at what's likely to happen, though. Rio's last two payments were historically high for the miner. However, the current yield doesn't reflect that, thanks to the massive share price appreciation Rio has enjoyed over the past 12 months. These are all signs that Rio is nearing the top of its cycle, at least in my view.

These factors should make investors think twice about buying Rio shares for income today. There's little doubt that this mining stock will continue to be a reliable dividend payer going forward. It's just a question of whether buying Rio shares after the 65% rise since this time last year is the best entry point for income investors.

The post Buying Rio Tinto shares? Here's the yield you'll get today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Monadelphous Group report?

• New contracts valued at around $120 million in total
• Five-year panel contract for crane and lifting services with Rio Tinto in the Pilbara
• Three-year contract extension for multidisciplinary sustaining capital services for Rio Tinto
• Battery energy storage system (BESS) construction contract at Fortescue's Cloudbreak mine
• Three-year structural and mechanical maintenance panel appointment with Port Waratah Coal Services in Newcastle

What else do investors need to know?

Monadelphous continues to expand its presence in both resources and renewables, picking up its third BESS project for Fortescue. This positions the company to benefit from the growing demand for decarbonisation solutions across mining operations.

The latest round of contract wins includes both new work and extensions to existing relationships, particularly with major clients Rio Tinto and Fortescue. These partnerships highlight Monadelphous' standing as a trusted services provider in critical Australian sectors.

What's next for Monadelphous Group?

Works under the new contracts are expected to be completed progressively, with the Cloudbreak BESS project scheduled for completion in the second half of FY26. Monadelphous will likely continue focussing on securing sustainable project work in renewables and resources to drive long-term growth.

The company's strategy emphasises building strong relationships with key clients while targeting opportunities in infrastructure and decarbonisation, both in Australia and overseas.

Monadelphous Group share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Monadelphous Group shares have risen 69%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 3% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Monadelphous wins $120m in new contracts across mining and renewables appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rise again

The Australian share market looks set to rise on Friday following a positive night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 42 points or 0.5% higher this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.55%, the S&P 500 rose 0.15%, and the Nasdaq edged 0.1% higher.

Oil prices ease

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) will be on watch on Friday after a subdued night for oil prices. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 0.65% to US$97.59 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.65% to US$104.35 a barrel. Traders were selling oil amid optimism that a US-Iran peace deal could be on the horizon.

BHP and Rio Tinto on watch

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares will be on watch on Friday. Overnight their NYSE-listed shares pushed higher, which may bode well for today's session. The catalyst for this appears to have been another rise in copper prices. The base metal is now up almost 10% since the start of May.

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares such as Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a relatively positive finish to the week after the gold price rose overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.15% to US$4,542.2 an ounce. Falling oil prices have reduced interest rate hike bets and boosted the gold price.

Buy Energy One shares

Energy One Ltd (ASX: EOL) shares could be in the buy zone according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating on the software company's shares with a trimmed price target of $17.10. It said: "We believe AI displacement concerns are unwarranted with EOL as they serve a deeply regulated and sticky industry with mission-critical solutions. Tailwinds remain regarding growing complexity in energy markets, surging European trading volumes and increasing distributed energy resources. These trends reinforce the strength of EOL's positioning as a one-stop-shop provider of software and services, rather than a collection of individual tools. We remain attracted to the company's strong growth profile, expanding margins and impressive SaaS metrics."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Both are high-quality businesses. Both have world-class assets. Both can generate huge cash flows when commodity markets are favourable.

I would be happy to own either in a long-term portfolio.

But if I had to choose just one today, I would pick BHP shares.

The case for Rio Tinto shares

Rio Tinto remains one of the strongest resources companies in the world.

Its Pilbara iron ore operations are among the best mining assets on the planet. They are large, low cost, and capable of producing enormous cash flow when iron ore prices are supportive.

That makes Rio Tinto a serious dividend stock when the cycle is working in its favour.

I also like the fact that Rio Tinto has been trying to broaden its future growth profile. The company has exposure to aluminium, copper, and lithium, as well as iron ore. That gives it more than one way to benefit from long-term demand for materials used in infrastructure, electrification, and energy transition.

For income investors, Rio Tinto can be very appealing. When profits are strong, the dividends can be significant.

The issue is that I think Rio still feels more exposed to the iron ore cycle than BHP. Iron ore can be an outstanding commodity when demand is strong, but it can also be unforgiving when prices fall or China's property and infrastructure activity disappoint.

That does not make Rio a bad buy. I just think BHP has a slightly stronger mix for the next decade.

Why I prefer BHP shares

BHP also has a world-class iron ore business. That gives it the same kind of cash flow engine that investors want from a major miner.

But I think BHP's copper exposure gives it the edge.

Copper is one of the commodities I am most positive on over the next decade. It is needed for electricity networks, renewable energy, electric vehicles, data centres, industrial activity, and broader electrification.

I also think copper supply will struggle to keep up with demand.

New mines can take years to approve and build. Existing mines face declining grades, rising costs, and political risk in some regions. That creates a very attractive setup for large producers with existing copper assets.

This is where BHP looks especially strong to me.

If copper prices remain elevated over the long term, BHP could be one of the best-placed miners on the ASX to benefit. Its scale, balance sheet, and asset base give it options that many smaller miners simply do not have.

The potash option

BHP also has another long-term growth lever in potash.

Its Jansen project gives the company exposure to fertiliser demand and global food production. This will not transform earnings overnight, but I like the strategic direction.

Potash is different from iron ore and copper, which adds another layer to BHP's commodity mix. Over time, it could make the business more diversified and less reliant on one or two major earnings drivers.

That is important when thinking in five-year or 10-year terms.

Foolish takeaway

I think both BHP and Rio Tinto are ASX mining shares worth buying.

Rio Tinto offers a powerful iron ore franchise, attractive dividends, and useful exposure to commodities beyond iron ore.

But BHP wins for me.

Its iron ore business remains excellent, its copper exposure looks very valuable, and its potash expansion adds another long-term growth option.

The post BHP shares vs Rio Tinto shares: Which miner looks better? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

You're not alone!

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant has a lengthy track record of paying two fully franked dividends a year. And those franking credits should continue to offer investors potential tax benefits, even under the recently announced Federal budget measures.

Now, with Rio Tinto shares having rocketed more than 50% over the past year, the stock's dividend yield has come down too.

But that doesn't make it unattractive.

We'll look at how many shares you'd need to buy for that welcome $10,000 annual passive income boost below.

But first a few important reminders.

Trailing yields and forecast yields

First, when you're gauging a stock's passive income potential you can look at trailing yields or forecast yields.

Forecast yields represent analysts' best guesses at how much a company might pay out over the year or years ahead. But at the end of the day, these forecasts are just that. Guesses.

Trailing yields are based on the past 12 months of dividend payouts. Meaning future yields could be higher or lower depending on a range of company specific and macroeconomic factors.

For Rio Tinto shares, that includes the prevailing price of iron ore and copper, as well as weather conditions that could help or hinder mining operations.

Also bear in mind that, while we'll look solely at Rio Tinto here, a properly diversified passive income portfolio will contain a lot more than just one dividend stock.

While there's no magic number that fits everyone, 10 to 15 ASX dividend stocks is a good ballpark figure. Ideally these will operate in various sectors and locations. This will help reduce the risk of your income stream taking an outsized hit if any single stock or sector runs into a rough patch.

With that said…

Drilling into Rio Tinto shares for a $10,000 annual passive income

Rio Tinto paid a fully franked interim dividend of $2.22 a share on 25 September. The ASX 200 miner paid its final fully franked dividend of $3.671 a share on 16 April.

That works out to a full year dividend payout of $5.891 a share.

So, to aim for $10,000 a year in passive income (based on the trailing yield), you'd need to buy 1,698 Rio Tinto shares today.

How much would that cost?

Rio Tinto shares closed on Friday trading for $191.59 apiece, up more than 59% in 12 months.

To achieve your $10,000 annual passive income goal then, you'd need to invest $325,320 today.

Now, that's a lot to invest in one go. But that's okay. Investing is a long game. You can always invest smaller amounts on a regular basis, and you'll reach your income goal in good time.

Rio Tinto shares trade on a 3.1% fully franked trailing dividend yield.

The post How many Rio Tinto shares do I need to buy for $10,000 a year in passive income? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

If you are, and have a higher tolerance for risk, then it could be worth checking out the ASX mining stock in this article.

That's because Bell Potter believes it is on track to deliver big returns and equally big profits in the near future.

Which ASX mining stock?

The stock that Bell Potter is tipping as a buy is WA1 Resources Ltd (ASX: WA1).

It is the niobium-focused mineral exploration company behind the West Arunta project in Western Australia.

Bell Potter notes that since its listing, WA1 Resources has focused on an aggressive drill-out program at West Arunta, specifically targeting the Luni carbonatite structure.

Niobium is considered to be a critical mineral by both the United States and European Union due to supply concentration and economic importance.

Bell Potter was pleased with the recently updated mineral resource estimate (MRE) for the Luni deposit. It said:

The total MRE tonnage for Luni was already established and widely understood, what this update importantly delivers is the conversion of Inferred material into the Indicated category. At 57% of contained niobium now sitting in Indicated, WA1 has crossed a material threshold in terms of resource maturity and provides a platform for Ore Reserve declaration, pre-feasibility study completion, and ultimately, project financing. The Indicated high-grade subset represents a meaningful improvement in tonnage and grade versus the prior update.

This material is expected to anchor the initial mine schedule and underpin any starter operation economics. Our base case assumes a staged development, beginning with a 0.5Mtpa operation (5yrs) processing ore at average grade of 2.5% Nb₂O₅, scaling to 1.0–1.5Mtpa over the following decade. The high-grade Indicated subset as it now stands is sufficient to support that schedule.

Based on this, Bell Potter believes the company is well-placed to start generating sales and profits in FY 2028.

It is forecasting sales of $491.8 million, EBITDA of $354.1 million, and a net profit after tax of $256.1 million.

Should you invest?

According to the note, Bell Potter has retained its speculative buy rating and $24.80 price target on the ASX mining stock.

Based on its current share price of $16.17, this implies potential upside of 53% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its recommendation, the broker said:

We maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation with a $24.80/sh valuation (unchanged). Our valuation is based on a Notional Development Scenario (NDS) for Luni, discounted at 10% and risked at 30% to reflect the project's current stage. Key catalysts for higher valuations and share price re-rating include: eastern zone assay results, Measured classification, PFS/Reserve declaration and potential MRE increase from eastern AC extensions.

The post This ASX mining stock tipped to rise 50% could make a profit of $250m in 2028 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Australia's big three miners sit right at the centre of it.

The world needs enormous quantities of copper, lithium, and iron ore to build wind turbines, solar panels, electric vehicles, and the grid infrastructure that ties it all together. 

Australia's three largest miners have been reshaping their portfolios to benefit from this.

Investors who recognise that shift early could benefit handsomely.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

BHP has made its strategic direction clear: copper is the future. 

The company reported a 31% increase in its average realised copper price to US$5.47 per pound in its March quarter update. 

The copper price itself has been one of the standout commodity stories of 2026, climbing 27% year to date to trade above US$12,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange.

This has been driven by surging demand from electrification and AI data centre construction. 

BHP's Escondida mine in Chile, the world's largest copper operation, and its Olympic Dam asset in South Australia position it as one of the best ways to gain exposure to the copper megatrend.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

Rio Tinto has arguably made the most aggressive pivot toward energy transition metals of any major global miner. 

The company's $6.7 billion acquisition of Arcadium Lithium immediately positioned Rio as one of the world's largest lithium producers. 

Its Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia is on track to become the world's fourth largest copper operation by 2028. 

The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea shipped its first cargo in December 2025, with 2026 ramp-up targets of five to ten million tonnes marking the beginning of what will eventually become a major earnings contributor. 

Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan both noted the Arcadium acquisition as a well-timed entry into the lithium market.

Beyond that, Rio's 60% dividend payout policy makes it attractive to income-focused investors alongside the growth story.

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG)

Fortescue takes a different but no less ambitious approach to the green transition. 

The company committed to spending US$6.2 billion on decarbonisation, including a US$680 million investment to accelerate its 200-megawatt Pilbara Green Energy Project. 

The goal is net zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions across all operations by 2030, a target that would make Fortescue one of the greenest large-scale miners in the world. 

Fortescue shares have risen substantially over the past six months, reflecting both the iron ore price recovery and growing investor appreciation for its clean energy ambitions.

Foolish takeaway

BHP leads on copper scale. 

Rio brings diversification across copper and lithium. 

Fortescue bets that green iron ore production itself becomes a competitive advantage. 

For long-term investors for whom the impact of their investments is important, and who are willing to navigate commodity price volatility, all three deserve serious consideration. 

The post 3 ASX mining stocks positioned to benefit from the green transition appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

After dipping to a 2026-low of $144.41 in March, Rio Tinto shares have rocketed 32% higher.

The shares are now up 29% for the year to date and are an impressive 59% higher than just 12 months ago.

The latest gains now put Rio Tinto in 8th place on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) by market capitalisation, 

What is pushing Rio Tinto shares higher?

Renewed confidence in the outlook for copper and iron ore – the two key commodities that Rio Tinto produces – has acted as a strong tailwind for the miner's share price recently.

According to Trading Economics data, copper futures climbed to around US$6.6 per pound on Wednesday, hitting fresh all-time highs on stronger Chinese demand and growing supply concerns. 

Strong copper demand is linked to AI data centres, electrification, and renewable energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, on the supply side, disruptions to sulphuric acid availability, linked to the conflict between the US and Iran, raise concerns about tighter global supply.

Meanwhile, iron ore prices have also reached a multi-year high of around US$111.28 per tonne, according to Trading Economics data. The latest trading price represents a 5.6% increase over the past month and a 10% increase from this time last year.

But it's not only surging prices that have ignited soaring investor sentiment. In April, the miner also posted an impressive production result for the first quarter of FY26.

The copper miner posted a 9% year-on-year increase in copper equivalent production in the first quarter of FY26. Iron ore production in the Pilbara region also jumped 13%, making it the second-best Q1 production since 2018, despite weather disruptions and reduced shipments.

Rio Tinto also said it is focusing on production expansion across its core commodity assets. 

Can the shares keep climbing higher?

The majority of analysts currently hold a buy or strong buy rating on Rio Tinto shares, but after the latest rally, most target prices represent a downside at the time of writing.

Market Index data shows that most brokers have a buy rating on the shares, and the $166.26 average target price implies a potential 13% downside over the next 12 months, based on the share price at the time of writing. However, it's important to note that the data hasn't been updated since the 4th of May. Back then, Rio Tinto shares were around $20 less than the current trading price.

TradingView data reflects something similar. Seven out of 15 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the shares. Another seven have a hold rating, and one has a strong sell rating on the miner's stock.

The average $166.35 target price implies a potential 13% downside at the time of writing. Although the maximum $193.78 target price still implies the shares could climb another 1%.

Overall, it's clear that the long-term outlook for the copper (in particular) and iron ore markets is strong, and Rio Tinto's production is climbing steadily. 

Some state that Australia is in the early stages of a new mining boom, driven mostly by a transition to green energy. 

If that does come to fruition, I expect Rio Tinto shares could very well keep climbing higher. 

The post Rio Tinto shares hit fresh all-time high. Can they keep going? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

On Wednesday: 

• BMC Minerals Ltd (ASX: BMC) rose 12% to a new all-time high
• SKS Technologies Group Ltd (ASX: SKS) jumped 5% to a new record high
• APA Group Ltd (ASX: APA) hit a record high. 

Lets see what sparked investor interest, and if there is any further upside in store. 

BMC Minerals continues hot start

BMC Minerals engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties. It operates the Kudz Ze Kayah Project located in the Finlayson Lake District of south-eastern Yukon, Canada.

It debuted on the ASX back in December last year, and has climbed more than 50% since its initial listing. 

Most of this increase has come following its quarterly report in late April. 

Investors have seemingly been scooping up shares in this exploration company after it announced a positive Decision Document for development of the ABM Mine issued by the Government of Yukon, Natural Resources Canada and the Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada. 

This was a major de-risking milestone for the Company, allowing the continuation of the permitting process for all remaining permits and licences for the project.

Once in production, the ABM Mine is expected to be Canada's largest silver and zinc producer and a top 15 Canadian copper producer.

A recent report from Morgans suggested a price target of $5.70 for these ASX shares. 

This would indicate a further 48% upside from current levels. 

SKS nearing peak

SKS Technologies engages in the development and distribution of technology products. It provides audiovisual products & solutions and electrical and communications cabling for the commercial, retail, health, defence and education market.

In 2026, it has already risen 122%, and it is now up 438% in the last year after yesterday's rise. 

This has been spurred on by continued contract wins for the company. 

However targets from brokers indicate the stock could be close to fully valued. 

Morgans recently placed a revised price target of $8.95 on these ASX shares, which is only slightly above the current share price of $8.78. 

APA benefits from federal budget

APA is Australia's largest energy infrastructure company, owning and/or operating an extensive portfolio of gas, electricity, solar, and wind assets.

It hit new record highs during trading on Wednesday, and could be set to benefit from changes in the federal budget. 

As reported by Bernd Struben on Tuesday, UBS equities strategist Richard Schellbach said the proposed CGT changes will favour the likes of quality ASX 200 dividend shares such as APA.

According to Schellenbach, ASX stocks with strong capital gain potential are likely to become less attractive following the CGT changes. 

ASX 200 dividend shares in the banking and real estate sectors could be set to benefit over high-growth stocks.

The post Can these ASX shares hitting record highs keep climbing? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Many Australian companies have a long history of paying dividends, and that can make the share market useful for investors who want regular cash flow as well as long-term capital growth.

Of course, dividends are never guaranteed. Companies can cut, pause, or reduce payouts if profits come under pressure. But with a diversified portfolio of quality ASX dividend shares, I think investors can build a useful income stream over time.

Start with the passive income goal

Aiming for $500 a month in passive income means targeting $6,000 a year.

The amount required to generate that income depends on the dividend yield achieved.

For this example, I am going to use a 4% dividend yield. I think that is a sensible starting point because it does not require investors to chase the highest-yielding shares on the market.

A 6% or 7% yield can look attractive, but it can also be a warning sign that the market is worried about the sustainability of the dividend. A 4% target gives investors more room to focus on quality, diversification, and dividend sustainability.

What the maths says

At a 4% dividend yield, an investor would need a portfolio worth around $150,000 to generate $6,000 a year in passive income.

That works out to roughly $500 a month.

That is a large number, but I do not think it should discourage investors. It can be built gradually through regular investing, reinvesting dividends, and allowing the portfolio to grow over time.

What could the portfolio include?

I would want a $150,000 income portfolio to be spread across different parts of the ASX.

The banks could play a role. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) have long been popular dividend shares for Australian investors.

I would be careful not to overload the portfolio with banks, but they can provide franked dividends and exposure to large, profitable financial institutions.

Miners could also help with income. BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) can pay large dividends when commodity markets are favourable.

The important thing to remember is that mining dividends can be cyclical. Iron ore, copper, and other commodity prices can move sharply, so I would not treat those payouts as fixed.

Retailers and REITs

Retailers can add another income source.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW), Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL), and Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN) all offer different types of consumer exposure.

Some are more defensive, such as supermarkets. Others are more cyclical, such as household goods retail. Combining them carefully can help spread risk.

I would also consider real estate investment trusts.

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (ASX: HDN), Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (ASX: CLW), and Scentre Group (ASX: SCG) can provide property-backed income. REITs can be sensitive to interest rates, but they can also offer attractive distributions from portfolios of income-producing assets.

Foolish Takeaway

To generate $500 a month in passive income from ASX shares at a 4% dividend yield, an investor would need about $150,000 invested.

That income will not be perfectly smooth, and dividends can change from year to year. But I think the goal is achievable with patience and a diversified portfolio.

For me, the key would be spreading the money across banks, miners, retailers, and REITs rather than relying too heavily on one sector.

A 4% yield target is not the most aggressive approach, but I think it gives investors a better chance of building income that is more sustainable over time.

The post How much do I need to invest in ASX shares for $500 a month of passive income? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.