ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) and Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) are familiar favourites among income investors, while Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) offers exposure to global demand for commodities.

Meanwhile, CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) and ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD) have built world-class healthcare businesses with considerable long-term growth opportunities.

I can understand why investors would want to own all five.

But are these ASX shares actually good value at today's prices, compared with what investors have historically been willing to pay for them?

I looked back over 10 years of valuations to find out. And only two stood out as cheap.

ANZ shares

I like ANZ shares as a long-term investment. Its banking operations across Australia and New Zealand, together with Suncorp Bank, provide opportunities to grow and improve efficiency.

Its latest trading update also showed encouraging progress, including stronger business lending and improving cost control.

But the valuation makes me slightly hesitant. At around $40.10, ANZ trades on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15.6 times expected FY26 earnings, based on CommSec consensus forecasts. Its FY27 multiple is also similar, at 15.7 times.

Over the last decade, ANZ's median PE ratio was approximately 12.4 times.

So investors are paying around 25% more than its historical norm, even though earnings per share are expected to remain broadly flat between FY26 and FY27.

That doesn't mean ANZ shares won't deliver attractive returns. Management could improve profitability as its strategy progresses.

However, I don't think ANZ stands out as cheap at the moment.

But don't worry, because after running the same comparison on the remaining four ASX shares, I found two companies whose numbers are considerably more attractive.

Telstra shares

Telstra is another business I rate highly.

Its mobile network provides a strong competitive position, while its Connected Future 30 strategy aims to grow earnings and support shareholders through dividends.

I can understand why investors might pay a premium for that relatively defensive outlook.

But at around $5.03, Telstra trades on 24.2 times consensus FY27 earnings, falling slightly to 23.3 times in FY28.

For comparison, its 10-year median PE ratio is just 15.2 times. That's a premium of almost 60% to the historical benchmark.

Telstra deserves some credit for improving its operations and focusing on cash earnings over the past decade. However, analysts expect earnings per share (EPS) to increase only modestly from 20.8 cents in FY27 to 21.6 cents in FY28.

I think that growth is already well reflected in the valuation. I'd still be comfortable owning Telstra shares, especially if income were the goal, but I wouldn't call it a bargain.

CSL shares

CSL is an interesting case. Its FY26 performance was disappointing, with underlying profits declining and significant restructuring costs and impairments contributing to a reported loss.

CSL Vifor is also facing pressure from generic competition. Those issues help explain why investors have become more cautious.

However, I believe the company's plasma therapies business remains a valuable asset, supported by growing global demand for immunoglobulin treatments.

Management is also working to improve efficiency and restore growth, although the recovery will take time.

At around $202.40, CSL trades on approximately 22.4 times forecast FY27 earnings and 21.1 times FY28 earnings.

Its 10-year median PE ratio is 32.6 times. That puts its FY27 multiple around 31% below the historical benchmark.

CSL may never command the same premium again, and its turnaround still has to deliver. But I think today's valuation provides a more attractive starting point than investors have often enjoyed.

I'd be happy to buy CSL shares for the long term. 

Rio Tinto shares

Rio Tinto has plenty going for it. I like its established iron ore operations and the opportunity to grow copper production as Oyu Tolgoi ramps up. Its latest production update showed encouraging progress on both fronts.

However, mining shares can be tricky to value because their earnings are heavily influenced by commodity prices. When prices and profits are high, PE ratios can look unusually low. And when earnings fall, those same shares can suddenly look expensive.

Nevertheless, Rio Tinto's current valuation doesn't strike me as especially cheap. At around $153.04, its shares trade at 12.8 times expected FY26 earnings, compared with a 10-year median PE ratio of 10.6 times. The FY27 multiple is similar at approximately 12.6 times.

I don't think that's an unreasonable valuation given the quality of its assets and its copper growth opportunities. But I wouldn't call it cheap.

ResMed shares

ResMed is my other standout ASX share. Its devices help people manage sleep apnoea, while replacement masks and accessories provide an ongoing source of customer demand.

And there is still considerable room to reach people who haven't been diagnosed or treated. Its latest results give me confidence that this opportunity is translating into earnings. In the first quarter of FY27, revenue increased 6%, while adjusted earnings per share grew 14%.

I think that is an encouraging combination for a company with such an established position in its market.

Yet at around $34.61, ResMed trades on a PE ratio of 20.2 times expected FY27 earnings, falling to 18.6 times FY28 earnings.

With its 10-year median PE 35.5 times earnings, this puts today's forward multiple roughly 43% below that level.

Competition, reimbursement changes, and uneven performance in its software operations remain considerations.

Nevertheless, I believe ResMed's core sleep business has an excellent chance of growing for many years, and I like what investors are paying for that opportunity today.

Of the five ASX shares, ResMed would be my first choice.

Foolish takeaway

Historical PE ratios aren't fair-value targets. Businesses and growth expectations change, so a lower multiple doesn't automatically mean a bargain.

But I think comparing each company with its own history offers some perspective on today's prices.

I still like ANZ, Telstra, and Rio Tinto, even though none stands out as cheap.

CSL and ResMed are the two ASX shares I'd be most interested in buying at current levels, with ResMed my preferred pick.

The post I compared 10 years of valuations for 5 ASX giants. Only 2 look cheap today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The ASX mining stock climbed higher through late 2025 and early 2026, before crashing around 19% in March following news of the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.

But the shares quickly regained momentum later the same month and have mostly trended upwards since.

Since then, BHP shares have been pretty stable, trading somewhere between $54.72 and $67.67 over the past six months.

Some are now incredibly bullish that the company can keep climbing higher. Meanwhile, more reserved market experts question if BHP shares have now reached a ceiling.

So I decided to analyse both the bull and bear cases for BHP shares to reach my own conclusions.

Here's what I found.

The bull case for BHP shares

BHP has aggressively pivoted its business towards copper over the past few years, transitioning its income from a pure-play iron ore producer to a diverse mining powerhouse.

The transition has paid off, too. BHP has become a dominant global copper miner, and its copper business now generates over half (or approximately 54%) of its underlying EBITDA. 

Its copper business is also set to keep growing. The miner's expansion plans for its South Australian Olympic Dam Block Cave are in full swing. A recent operations review shows a mineral resource of 10.73 billion tonnes grading 0.59% copper. 

That adds a potentially significant underground mining option to boost BHP's broader copper production plans.

It's great timing too.

It looks like the copper market could also be in the early stages of a bull run, creating a runway for BHP shares to rocket higher.

The metal is widely expected to be approaching a long-term structural supply deficit, driven by increasing demand from ongoing home building, electrical equipment, and household appliances. This is expected to be supported further by a boom in demand from electric vehicles, renewables, AI, and data centres.

In fact, BHP said that copper demand is expected to grow from around 34 million tonnes per year in 2026, up to around 50 million tonnes by 2050. 

The miner also said it anticipates that copper demand associated with investment in data centres could grow around sixfold between 2024 and 2050. That's an increase of around 3 million tonnes per annum.

And BHP is well-positioned to soak up a lot of that demand, and maintain its position as a dominant global miner. 

The bear case for BHP shares

BHP shares have remained relatively unchanged over the past six months following an operational bottleneck, softer Chinese iron ore demand, and fears that the miner's share price value has run ahead of its business fundamentals.

Copper represents a significant portion of BHP's earnings, but its production figures have lagged behind expectations.

BHP revealed a 19% year-on-year decline in copper production for the first quarter of FY27. The production decline follows a fatality at its Escondida site during the quarter. This prompted company-wide safety reviews and temporary operational pauses at the affected site. Escondida is now up and running, but production is still behind schedule.

Meanwhile, a vast chunk of BHP's non-copper earnings come from its iron ore business (alongside coal and potash). This is a market which has faced significant headwinds this year following sluggish demand and high shipments.

Iron ore is now trading around a four-year low of around CNY 670 per tonne. 

According to Trading Economics, iron ore stockpiles at major Chinese ports increased nearly 1% to 153.72 million tons in the past week, while shipments from producers outside Australia and Brazil remained elevated.

At a current share price of $56.81, BHP is trading on a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 21 times. This is significantly higher than competitors like Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), which are trading on a trailing P/E ratio of around 14 times and 11 times, respectively.

My verdict

I'm cautious on price but positive on the long-term copper story for BHP. I think the miner's long-term potential growth far outweighs near-term headwinds.

A copper supply deficit is looming, and as demand for the metal ramps up, I think BHP could benefit from a double-edged sword of higher prices and higher demand.

The miner is also quickly scaling its copper operations, and I anticipate a rally in investor interest in BHP shares as investors realise the potential that its Olympic Dam Block Cave expansion plan offers for overall company growth.

What do the experts think?

If we look at expert outlooks, sentiment is mostly neutral. But a wide range of analyst target prices gives mixed messages about whether we'll see an upside, or a strong downside for BHP shares over the next 12 months.

TradingView data shows that 11 out of 18 analysts have a hold rating on BHP shares. Another five have a strong buy rating, and two rate the shares a sell/strong sell.

The average $61.14 target price implies an upside of around 8%, at the time of writing.

But the difference between the minimum and maximum is huge. Some tip the shares to crash 19% to $46.04, while others think the shares have the potential to increase 26% to $71.87, at the time of writing.

Michael Gable from Fairmont Equities thinks we're in the early stages of a commodities boom. He thinks supply constraints and increasing demand could drive copper prices higher. 

This is great news for a miner like BHP, which generates a significant volume of its income from copper. 

But not everyone agrees. Red Leaf Securities has a hold rating on the mining shares and warns that a softer global growth outlook and uncertainty surrounding Chinese commodity demand limit the case for aggressively buying the stock.

Then there are the most bearish experts like Catapult Wealth, which has a sell rating on BHP shares. The team is concerned that BHP has run too far ahead of true value.

The post BHP shares: I investigated the bull and the bear case, and here's where I landed appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Mining stocks have become Australia's proxy for the global artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

We don't have a big tech sector heavily involved in the AI build-out like the US market does.

But we have all the metals and minerals needed to build the world's data centres and power battery storage systems.

So, when US AI stocks get sold off, we see a sell-off in tech and copper and critical minerals miners.

That's what happened the week before last when ASX 200 tech stocks fell 5.11%, and materials dropped 7.69%.

Last week, US AI stocks recovered over a three-day run early in the week, and so did our mining and tech companies.

Meanwhile, the consumer discretionary and staples sectors took a hit.

Hotter-than-expected inflation data led the market to price in an 80% chance of a fifth interest rate hike for 2026 on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the benchmark ASX 200 rose 1.28% to finish at 8,908.1 points.

Seven of the 11 market sectors finished in the green last week.

Let's recap.

ASX 200 materials and mining shares led the market

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price jumped 4.56% to close at $57.56 on Friday.

The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price rose 4.08% to $44.09.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares lifted 0.71% to $147.31 last week.

The Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) share price finished steady at $14.27.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) shares increased 5.08% to $4.34.

ASX 200 copper pure-play Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) soared 9.16% to $20.14 per share.

Lithium shares struggled last week amid sluggish commodity prices.

The PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) share price edged 0.76% higher to $2.64.

The Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price fell 3.13% to 62 cents.

How about ASX gold shares?

The Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) share price ascended 4.59% to $25.27.

The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price rose 3.98% to $11.76.

Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) shares lifted 0.7% to $156.12.

The gold price has fallen 7% in 2026 and broke below US$4,000 per ounce on Friday.

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

The post ASX 200 mining shares rebounded while consumer stocks fell last week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The business is involved with a number of commodities including copper, iron ore, bauxite, lithium, aluminium and more.

I like the diversified portfolio of resources because that means it's not reliant on any particular commodity to make profit and it can ride different supply and demand cycles, hopefully smoothing out earnings.

With a generous dividend payout ratio and relatively low price/earnings (P/E) ratio, I reckon Rio Tinto is one to look into further for income-focused investors.

FY26

We're still in Rio Tinto's 2026 financial year because, unlike many other Australian companies, it follows the calendar year rather than ending in June.

The latest update we've heard from the ASX mining share was its FY26 third-quarter update.

In that latest quarter, on a year-over-year basis, copper production was flat at 205kt, global iron ore production was up 2% to 89.7mt, bauxite production was down 4% to 15.7mt, aluminium production was down 2% to 0.8mt and lithium carbonate production was up 4% to 13kt.

Management was pleased with the quarter, calling it a strong operational performance for the three months. It also noted that it's on track for a $1.8 billion annualised productivity benefit run-rate by the end of 2026 – it'll feel the full effects of this during FY27.

Rio Tinto also said that its major projects remain on schedule and budget, supporting its growth profile to 2030.

The FY26 half-year result was particularly impressive, with revenue growth of 15%, underlying operating profit (EBITDA) growth of 28%, underlying earnings growth of 43% and free cash flow increasing 75%. All of that growth allowed the business to hike its half-year dividend by 43%.

According to the projection on CMC Invest, Australian owners of Rio Tinto shares are expected to see an annual dividend per share of $6.676. That translates into a dividend yield of 4.4% excluding franking credits and 6.3% including franking credits.

FY27

The ASX mining share's performance in the 2027 financial year could depend on how commodity prices perform, as well as the production ramp-up at Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolian copper) and Simandou (African iron ore).

Currently, analysts estimate that the miner's earnings could climb a little in FY27 and this could fund a 2% increase in the annual dividend per Rio Tinto share to $6.809.

FY28

Analysts currently estimate that Rio Tinto could deliver a similar result for the 2028 financial year, according to CMC Invest, though slightly down.

The projection suggests Rio Tinto could pay an annual dividend per share of $6.632 in FY28. That would translate into a dividend yield of 4.4% excluding franking credits and 6.3% including franking credits.

Analysts now seem to suggest that the Rio Tinto share price is undervalued. Based on the views of 10 brokers, the average price target for the ASX-listed mining share is $172.44. This suggests a possible rise of more than 14% over the next year (at the time of writing), according to CMC Invest.

The post Here's the dividend forecast out to 2028 for Rio Tinto shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the time of writing, BHP shares have slumped around 4% over the month, to $58.07 apiece.

Fortescue shares have shed around 11% over the past month, down to $14.45 each.

And Rio Tinto shares are down roughly 9% to $149.99 each.

The broad declines were the result of a combination of headwinds, including weaker commodity prices, higher costs, broad macro pressures, and company-specific updates.

To help determine if the mining giant's shares are a buy for November, here's a brief look at their latest updates, and what's ahead next month.

BHP shares

The miner announced its September 2026 quarter operational review last week. This included the declaration of the new maiden block-cave mineral resource of 10.73 billion tonnes grading 0.59% copper at its Olympic Dam Copper Operations.

The block-cave resource is in the early stages of assessment. But it adds a potentially significant underground mining option to boost BHP's broader copper production plans.

BHP is scheduled to deliver a full strategy update and site-visit update on expansion plans for its Olympic Dam Block Cave in South Australia in late November.

And I anticipate a rally in interest in BHP shares as investors realise the potential this expansion plan offers for company growth. 

My view: I'm looking to add more BHP shares to my portfolio before then.

Fortescue shares

As a pure-play iron ore producer, the vast majority of Fortescue's revenue is tightly tied to fluctuations in the metal's price. Iron ore has rebounded from a four-year low, but at around CNY 670, is still trading around 15% lower than 12 months ago, according to Trading Economics data. 

The miner has also faced ongoing tensions and contract negotiations with China's state-backed buyer, China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG). The group has urged Chinese mills to curb delivery of iron ore from major miners while it negotiates with domestic steelmakers. It plans to force major miners into lower pricing agreements.

Fortescue's Q1 FY27 update last week has instilled a small amount of confidence back into investors. The miner confirmed it shipped 46.8 million tonnes of iron ore in the September quarter. It also said it ended the period with US$3.2 billion in cash and net debt of US$2.8 billion after payment of its FY26 final dividend and capital expenditure.

The problem is, I don't see that Fortescue's headwinds will cool anytime soon. Iron ore continues to trade at a low price, and the company's FY27 shipments and capital expenditure hinge on the outcome of negotiations with CMRG. If there is no outcome within the next couple of months, it could start to seriously affect the miner's operations.

My view: I'd hold off buying Fortescue shares in November, until we have more visibility on CMRG negotiations or changes in iron ore prices.

Rio Tinto shares

Rio Tinto's headwinds look like they're easing this month.

Unlike Fortescue, Rio Tinto isn't a pure-play iron ore company, so it isn't as heavily influenced by iron ore prices, although its iron ore segment still accounts for around 50% to 60% of its total revenue.

The good news is that Rio Tinto's core business is strong and its projects are progressing well.

In mid-October, the miner reported global iron ore sales of 90.8 million tonnes for the third quarter of FY26, an increase of 3% on the prior corresponding period. 

Its Pilbara operations also performed well, with sales increasing 2% to 85.7 million tonnes. Its copper production also increased, by 27% compared with the same quarter last year, reflecting the ongoing ramp-up of its underground mine.

In other positive news, Rio Tinto reached an agreement with CMRG around a week ago. The finalised agreement secures multi-year iron ore supply running from November 2026 to May 2028.

There's no clear catalyst ahead for Rio Tinto in November, but I think the latest updates give the miner a green light to turn around its operations over the next quarter. 

My verdict: I'd rate Rio Tinto shares as a buy for November.

The post Are ASX mining giants BHP, Fortescue, and Rio Tinto shares a buy for November? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

And I think some of the biggest beneficiaries could be the mining companies capable of supplying more of it.

Two Australian mining giants stand out to me, with both investing heavily in expanding their copper operations.

But could one now offer a better investment opportunity than the other? Here's what I think.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

One of the biggest reasons I'm becoming more optimistic about Rio Tinto's copper outlook is the progress being made at its Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia.

The company has spent years developing the mine's underground operations, and that investment is now starting to deliver significant production growth.

According to its October production update, Oyu Tolgoi produced 312,000 tonnes of copper during the first nine months of 2026, an increase of 29% compared with the same period last year.

And there's still plenty of room for production to grow. Rio Tinto expects Oyu Tolgoi to produce an average of approximately 500,000 tonnes of the red metal annually between 2028 and 2036.

I think that's an exciting prospect for a mine that is already operating and gradually increasing its output.

After years of heavy investment, Rio Tinto is approaching a period where Oyu Tolgoi could become a much larger contributor to its earnings, especially if copper prices remain strong.

Of course, production across the company's entire copper business isn't growing at the same pace. Group output increased just 1% during the first nine months of 2026.

But looking ahead, I think the continued expansion at Oyu Tolgoi gives the company a good opportunity to increase its copper earnings over the next few years.

And with BHP expecting lower copper production in FY27, that could give Rio an advantage in the near term.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

I'm also very bullish on BHP, which remains the world's largest copper producer.

In FY26, it produced approximately 1.95 million tonnes of copper, with the commodity contributing more than half of its underlying EBITDA.

That demonstrates how important the base metal has already become to the business.

But BHP is facing a period of lower production. Management expects copper output of between 1.65 million and 1.8 million tonnes in FY27, largely reflecting declining ore grades at its Escondida mine in Chile.

This is where I think Rio has an advantage over the shorter term. While Oyu Tolgoi continues ramping up, BHP is working through a period of weaker production before its next major investments begin contributing.

However, looking further ahead, there's plenty to like about BHP's plans. The company is progressing a new concentrator at Escondida and expanding its copper operations in South Australia.

In its FY26 results, management stated its belief that its development pipeline could increase attributable copper production by approximately 40% by FY35.

I think that's an enormous opportunity for a business already producing the red metal at such a substantial scale. And BHP's established iron ore operations provide considerable cash flow to help fund those ambitions.

Foolish takeaway

I would be happy buying both BHP and Rio Tinto shares today.

BHP remains one of my favourite long-term ASX investments, and I think its expanding copper business could become significantly more valuable over the next decade.

But if I were choosing based on copper production growth over the next three to five years, I might lean towards Rio Tinto.

Oyu Tolgoi is already delivering strong growth, and I think the next stage of its expansion could be rewarding for shareholders.

That gives Rio Tinto a slight edge for me today, although I'd be very comfortable owning both.

The post Is Rio Tinto becoming a better copper investment than BHP? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Monadelphous Group report?

• Secured contracts valued at approximately $150 million in total
• Four-year maintenance and minor works contract for Rio Tinto marine infrastructure at Dampier and Cape Lambert Ports
• Contract with BHP for the Ministers North Project in WA's Pilbara, to be completed by mid-2028
• Three-year shutdown services contract with Whitehaven Coal, with a two-year extension option

What else do investors need to know?

Monadelphous continues to cement its reputation for delivering key industrial services to Australia's largest miners. The Rio Tinto contract extends its longstanding partnership in WA's busy port sector, while the new BHP work highlights an ongoing drive into complex infrastructure support.

Meanwhile, the Whitehaven Coal deal expands Monadelphous' footprint at multiple coal mine sites in Queensland and New South Wales, featuring flexibility with the option for further extension. These wins reflect the company's ability to secure both repeat and new work with blue-chip clients.

What's next for Monadelphous Group?

Monadelphous will focus on delivering its new contracts over the coming years, with several projects running until at least 2028. Management's track record and diverse client base position the company well to chase further opportunities in maintenance and construction within the resources sector.

The company's strategy remains centred on strengthening client relationships and expanding its service offering. Investors can keep an eye out for future updates as Monadelphous continues to build its order book both in Australia and overseas.

Monadelphous Group share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Monadelphous shares have risen 27%, outpacing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has declined 2% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Monadelphous Group wins $150m in new contracts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Shares in the mining giant are trading around $150.13 on Thursday, down approximately 23% from their previous peak.

That's a sizeable decline for one of the world's largest resources companies.

But has the sell-off created an opportunity for long-term investors? Here's my view.

Why I like Rio Tinto

There are several reasons I would be comfortable owning Rio Tinto for the long term. The company has a portfolio of major mining operations, with its Western Australian iron ore business providing an important foundation.

I especially like the scale of these operations and their ability to generate substantial cash flow when commodity prices are favourable.

That cash flow helps Rio Tinto fund new projects and return money to shareholders.

But there is also plenty happening elsewhere in the business. Rio Tinto has been investing in expanding its copper operations, including the development of Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia.

I think copper offers an attractive long-term opportunity, given the growing need for electricity networks, industrial infrastructure, and data centres.

The company also has significant aluminium operations and investments in expanding its iron ore production.

For me, this combination of established mining assets and opportunities to increase production provides a good foundation for the coming years.

Does the Rio Tinto share price look attractive?

At approximately $150.13, the Rio Tinto share price looks quite reasonable based on consensus earnings forecasts.

Analysts currently expect earnings per share (EPS) of $11.93 in FY26 and $12.12 in FY27.

Based on those estimates, Rio Tinto shares are trading on a forward PE ratio of approximately 12.6 times FY26 earnings and 12.4 times FY27 earnings.

I think that's a reasonable price to pay for a major resources company with Rio Tinto's assets and long-term growth opportunities.

There is also a healthy dividend on offer. Consensus forecasts suggest fully franked dividends of $6.56 per share in FY26 and $6.66 per share in FY27.

At the current share price, that represents dividend yields of approximately 4.4% in both years.

I think that provides a reasonable income return while investors wait for the company's longer-term growth investments to deliver.

What could go wrong?

The biggest concern I have is the outlook for iron ore prices. China remains a major source of demand, and weakness in its property sector and steel industry could continue to weigh on the market.

At the same time, additional global iron ore supply could put pressure on prices.

That creates uncertainty around Rio Tinto's earnings outlook.

Although analysts currently expect relatively stable earnings over the next couple of years, those forecasts could prove too optimistic if iron ore prices weaken meaningfully.

And because mining businesses have substantial fixed costs, lower commodity prices can have a considerable impact on profitability.

Foolish takeaway

I think the Rio Tinto share price offers good value around $150.

There is a chance that weaker iron ore prices could put pressure on earnings and lead to further share price volatility.

But after a 23% pullback, I think much of the near-term uncertainty is already reflected in the valuation.

With a healthy dividend and opportunities to grow its business over time, I would be happy buying Rio Tinto shares today.

The post Is the Rio Tinto share price good value after a 23% decline? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the time of writing, the ASX mining shares are down around 2% to $150.22 a piece.

Since hitting an all-time high in early-June, the shares have now shed 23% of their value, reversing a lot of the gains made earlier this year.

The shares are now around 2% higher for the year to date.

What has happened to Rio Tinto shares since June?

Rio Tinto's share price decline over the past four months is mostly the result of a sharp drop in iron ore prices over the same period.

Major miners like Rio Tinto are relatively resilient companies, but a large amount of the miner's cash flows from its large iron ore operations, which means the latest commodity price downturn has put incredible stress on the company's margins.

According to Trading Economics, iron ore spiked at an annual high close to US$112 per tonne in mid-May, before crashing in early June. Iron ore is now trading around a three-year low of US$90 per tonne. That's also a 7% decline over the past month and a 14% decline over the year.

The iron decline is the result of weaker Chinese steel demand, aggressive price negotiations in China, and increased global iron ore supply. 

China's state-backed buyer, China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) has urged Chinese mills to curb delivery of iron ore from major miners while it negotiates with domestic steelmakers. It plans to force major miners into lower pricing agreements, and this puts even further pressure on Rio Tinto.

Can the miner's shares rebound?

The good news is that Rio Tinto's core business continues to be strong and its projects are progressing well.

This week the company reported global iron ore sales of 90.8 million tonnes during the quarter, an increase of 3% on the prior corresponding period. Its Pilbara operations also performed well, with sales increasing 2% to 85.7 million tonnes.

Its copper production has also increased 27% compared with the same quarter last year, reflecting the ongoing ramp-up of its underground mine.

But there are concerns that iron ore prices could keep falling from here, which means the headwinds facing the Rio Tinto share price over the past four months could well continue.

What do experts think of Rio Tinto shares?

Analyst outlooks are mixed.

Market Index data show half of brokers have a buy rating on the shares, but the other half are split between a hold and sell rating. However, at the latest slump, the $171.11 average target price implies an upside of around 14%, at the time of writing. 

Data on TradingView shows something similar. Out of 15 analysts, seven have a buy/strong buy rating and another six have a hold rating on the shares. Another two have a strong sell rating.

The average $172.17 target price now implies a potential 14% upside, at the time of writing. Although some still tip an upside of up to 40%, to $210.58 over the next 12 months. 

The post Why have Rio Tinto shares lost 23% since June? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Let's take a look at some new ratings from Morgans.

Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN) 

The Paladin Energy share price is $7.40, up 7% today and down 25% over 12 months. 

Morgans has a buy rating on this ASX 200 uranium mining share.

In a new note, Morgans shaved its 12-month price target down from $13.30 to $13.10.

The broker said: 

PDN's 1Q27 result reflected the anticipated slow start to FY27, with Langer Heinrich Mine (LHM) uranium production of 1.0Mlbs below consensus expectations of 1.16Mlbs. Uranium sales of 1.16Mlbs were in line with consensus expectations of 1.13Mlbs.

The result was impacted by the flagged and planned July plant shutdown and weaker recovery rates due to ore characteristics.

Mining momentum and realised pricing – mining performance improved qoq following strong performance in 4Q26 and realised pricing increased 12% to US$79.4/lb, a record at LHM.

Following recent share price weakness, we upgrade our rating to BUY (previously ACCUMULATE) with a price target of A$13.10ps (previously A$13.30ps).

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

Rio Tinto shares are $154.23, up 1% today and up 19% over 12 months. 

Morgans has a hold rating on this ASX 200 mining share. 

In a new note, the broker increased its 12-month target on Rio Tinto shares from $159 to $162.

Morgans said: 

RIO delivered a largely steady quarter, with slight beats from copper and alumina, iron ore inline, while lithium trailed estimates.

Oyu Tolgoi was the highlight in 3Q26, enough to offset lower output from Escondida and Kennecott.

RIO's share price has traded sideways so far through 2026, in a ~20% range.

Our new forced ranking is now RIO then South32 Ltd (ASX: S32), BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG).

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG)

The Fortescue share price is $15.32, up 2% today and down 23% over 12 months. 

Morgans has a sell (trim) rating on this ASX 200 iron ore share.

In a new note, the broker slashed its 12-month target from $18.70 to $15.40.

Morgans said:

We have long argued that investing material capital in near-term loss-making projects (magnetite and new energy) has not diversified Fortescue, and has instead left group earnings more exposed to the iron ore price.

Magnetite adds more iron ore exposure but at a higher cost, while new energy investment, and US$0.9-1.3bn of FY27 decarbonisation spend, are funded from hematite cash flow. This dynamic is starting to show in the numbers.

Fortescue flagged that net debt rose US$1.9bn in 1Q27, equal to the final dividend (US$1.0bn) plus quarterly capex (US$0.9bn), implying negative FCF for the quarter.

We attribute this mainly to weaker hematite cash flow after the central buying group China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) reportedly halted purchases of two of Fortescue's products during the quarter, leaving shipments 6% and actual sales 14% below Visible Alpha (VA) consensus in 1Q27.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Paladin Energy, Fortescue, Rio Tinto shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

To narrow things down, let's take a closer look at two popular options offering exposure to two in-demand commodities.

Are they buys, holds, or sells? Let's see what analysts are saying:

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

Bell Potter remains positive on this gold miner despite its softer than expected start to gold production in FY 2027.

The broker highlights that Evolution Mining's gold production fell short of expectations (153.6koz gold vs BPe 165.1koz gold), but this was offset by lower than expected costs and strong pricing.

In fact, the broker has boosted its earnings estimates for the financial year despite the production miss. It said:

EPS changes on this update are +6% for FY27, +3% for FY28 and +8% for FY29. The soft start to FY27 is more than offset by updates to our commodity price forecasts which include higher copper prices. 

Outside this, the broker likes Evolution Mining shares due to the quality of its assets and its unhedged gold and copper exposure. It adds:

EVN offers fully unhedged gold and copper exposure via a portfolio of high quality, long-life assets in Tier 1 jurisdictions, overseen by a high-quality management team. EVN has delivered on its promise to increase shareholder returns and gold price exposure. Our NPV-based valuation lifts 2%, to $15.85/sh. We retain our Buy recommendation.

Bell Potter has retained its buy rating on the gold miner's shares with an improved price target of $15.85. This implies potential upside of 30% for investors over the next 12 months. 

An attractive 3.7% dividend yield is also expected over the period.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

The team at Morgans is sitting on the fence with Rio Tinto shares following its quarterly update.

The broker felt that Rio Tinto delivered a steady quarter, with copper and alumina slightly ahead of expectations. It said:

RIO delivered a largely steady quarter, with slight beats from copper and alumina, iron ore inline, while lithium trailed estimates. Oyu Tolgoi was the highlight in 3Q26, enough to offset lower output from Escondida and Kennecott. RIO's share price has traded sideways so far through 2026, in a ~20% range. Our new forced ranking is now RIO then S32, BHP and FMG. We maintain a HOLD rating, with a A$162 target price (was A$159).

As mentioned above, Morgans has retained its hold rating on Rio Tinto's shares with a slightly improved price target of $162.00. 

Based on its current share price of $152.70, this implies modest potential upside of approximately 6% over the next 12 months. Including dividends, the total return lifts to around 10%.

The post Should you buy Evolution Mining and Rio Tinto shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In FY26, the ASX 200 materials sector, which is dominated by the miners, shot the lights out for investors.

The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) soared 47% and produced total returns, including dividends, of 52%. 

That compares to a 3% rise and total returns of 7% for the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

A staggering outperformance of 7:1.

The S&P/ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index (ASX: XMM), which includes an extra 100 mineral explorers, did even better.  

ASX 300 mining shares rose 53%, and delivered total returns of 59% in FY26.

These explosive returns followed staggering increases in many commodity prices.

Commodity price surge

In FY26, the best price growth among commodities relevant to Australian mining was lithium spodumene, soaring 278%.

Lithium is a key component in rechargeable batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), e-bikes, smartphones, and energy storage systems.

In CY25, silver experienced the best price growth, up 147%.

Silver is an industrial metal used in solar panels, EVs, tech devices, and data centres due to its superior conductivity to copper.

The long-term tailwinds of decarbonisation and the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out contributed to mining's outperformance in FY26.

The ongoing structural change in central banks purchasing gold to diversify their reserves away from US treasuries also played a role.

Experts say we're in a new mining boom that will be different to the 2000s because it will be led by critical minerals, not iron ore.

While these long-term tailwinds will remain for decades, that doesn't automatically translate to vertical commodity price growth.

This is made clear in the 5-year outlook for commodities just published by the Federal Department of Industry, Science, and Resources.

Commodity price predictions FY27

For the period FY26 to FY31, the government reckons FY27 is going to be the strongest year for many commodity prices.

According to the resources department's latest Resources and Energy Quarterly:

Commodity prices are expected to peak in 2026–27 and then drift lower.

This is important information for ASX investors because commodity prices directly impact miners' earnings, and thus, their share prices.

The report also looks at energy commodity prices.

In CY26, Brent crude oil, gas, and coal prices have surged due to the US-Iran conflict and Middle East supply disruptions.

This contributed to energy ranking second (behind materials) among the 11 ASX 200 market sectors for total returns in FY26.

The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) increased 9.37% and produced total returns of 14.51%.

The energy sector has the same forecasted commodity price trend.

For the period FY26 to FY31, the government expects four out of five energy commodity prices to peak in FY27.

This will have a direct impact on ASX energy shares.

Let's take a look at the forecasts.

Five-year outlook

The report outlines the Federal Government's predictions for average annual commodity prices in FY27 and FY31.

There is a realised nominal price for FY26, a forecast price for FY27, and a projected price for FY31.

As you'll see, over the next 5-year period, seven of the following 10 commodity prices are expected to peak in FY27.

Metals and minerals commodity prices

Iron ore price (62% fe)

FY26: US$92 per tonne

FY27: US$83 per tonne

FY31: US$72 per tonne

ASX iron ore mining shares: BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

Copper price

FY26: US$11,767 per tonne

FY27: US$13,754 per tonne

FY31: US$12,786 per tonne

ASX copper mining shares: Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR), BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Capstone Copper Corp CDI (ASX: CSC)

Lithium price (6% spodumene concentrate)

FY26: US$1,532 per tonne

FY27: US$2,499 per tonne

FY31: US$1,684 per tonne

ASX lithium mining shares: PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS), Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR), Elevra Lithium Ltd (ASX: ELV)

Gold price

FY26: US$4,268 per ounce

FY27: US$4,534 per ounce

FY31: US$4,149 per ounce

ASX gold mining shares: Newmont CDI (ASX: NEM), Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6)

Nickel prices

FY26: US$16,348 per tonne

FY27: US$17,226 per tonne

FY31: US$18,473 per tonne

ASX nickel shares: IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO), Nickel Industries Ltd (ASX: NIC)

Energy commodity prices

Brent crude oil price

FY26: US$79 per barrel

FY27: US$87 per barrel

FY31: US$68 per barrel

ASX oil shares: Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD), Viva Energy Ltd (ASX: VEA)

LNG prices

FY26: A$13 per gigajoule

FY27: A$16 per gigajoule

FY31: A$11 per gigajoule

ASX energy shares: Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS), Santos Ltd (ASX: STO)

Metallurgical coal price

FY26: US$213 per tonne

FY27: US$233 per tonne

FY31: US$225 per tonne

ASX met coal shares: Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC), BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

Thermal coal price

FY26: US$117 per tonne

FY27: US$128 per tonne

FY31: US$121 per tonne

ASX thermal coal producers: New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC), Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL)

Uranium price

FY26: US$82 per pound

FY27: US$93 per pound

FY31: US$113 per pound

ASX uranium shares: Paladin Energy Ltd  (ASX: PDN), Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE), Deep Yellow Ltd (ASX: DYL)

The post Own ASX mining shares? Official forecasts show commodity prices peaking in FY27 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

There was plenty to like in the announcement, particularly the progress being made across its iron ore and copper operations.

But does the update strengthen the case for buying Rio Tinto shares? Here's what I think.

A solid quarter for Rio Tinto

One of the highlights was the continued strength of Rio Tinto's iron ore business.

The company reported global iron ore sales of 90.8 million tonnes during the quarter, an increase of 3% on the prior corresponding period. Its Pilbara operations also performed well, with sales increasing 2% to 85.7 million tonnes.

I think that is encouraging because iron ore remains an important source of earnings and cash flow for the company.

Strong operational performance here can help Rio Tinto fund its investments in other commodities, particularly copper and lithium.

There was also positive progress at Simandou, the enormous iron ore development in Guinea.

The project reached an annualised production rate of approximately 10 million tonnes during the quarter and remains on track to reach a 60 million tonne annualised rate in the second half of 2028.

That gives Rio Tinto another avenue for production growth over the next few years.

Copper is becoming increasingly important

The other part of the update that caught my attention was the performance of Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia.

Copper production at the operation increased 27% compared with the same quarter last year, reflecting the ongoing ramp-up of its underground mine.

This helped offset weaker production elsewhere in Rio Tinto's copper portfolio, leaving total copper output broadly unchanged for the quarter.

I think Oyu Tolgoi could become an increasingly valuable part of the business. Copper demand is expected to benefit from investments in electricity networks, renewable energy, electric vehicles, and data centres. And Rio Tinto is positioning itself to meet some of that demand.

The company expects Oyu Tolgoi to produce around 500,000 tonnes of copper annually between 2028 and 2036, giving it a substantial production base for the coming decade.

For me, that is one of the strongest reasons to consider owning Rio Tinto shares for the long term.

What else stood out?

I was also encouraged by management's continued focus on improving productivity.

Rio Tinto remains on track to achieve an annualised productivity benefit of $1.8 billion by the end of 2026.

It has also announced more than $2 billion of capital release initiatives this year as part of a broader programme to free up funds from its portfolio.

I think improving efficiency and making better use of capital could be valuable as Rio Tinto continues investing in growth.

Foolish takeaway

I think Rio Tinto's latest update gives investors more reasons to be positive about its future.

The company is delivering solid operational performance while making progress on projects that could support earnings growth well beyond 2026.

I would be happy buying Rio Tinto shares for the long term, particularly with its copper business set to become increasingly important over the coming years.

The post Are Rio Tinto shares a buy following its Q3 update? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It sits above the $630,000 balance that the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) thinks every Australian needs for a comfortable retirement, and below the asset cut-off point for a part Age Pension payment.

This amount of money means you'll be able to live well when you decide to stop working. But if you invest that money wisely, it could also generate an additional passive income that'll turn a comfortable retirement lifestyle into an affluent one. 

Think frequent travel, luxury property, and flexible discretionary spending.

So, how much passive income can you earn off a $700,000 superannuation balance?

And what ASX shares could you invest in?

Let's take a look.

The calculation

There is a straightforward calculation to work out what passive income a $700,000 passive income could generate.

If you multiply your total superannuation balance by the overall dividend yield of your portfolio, it'll give you the passive income you could generate.

The answer changes depending on your dividend yield, which helps you identify what you need to invest in to earn the income you want. 

Generally, as your yield goes up, the passive income you can earn off the same balance also increases.

How much could I earn off a 2% to 3% yielding superannuation portfolio?

A 2% yielding portfolio is at the lowest end of the scale. Off a $700,000 superannuation balance, you'd generate around $14,000 in passive income. That's because $700,000 x 2% = $14,000 in dividend payments.

It's not a huge amount, but the benefit of a super low yielding portfolio is that this would generally be focused on traditional and reliable blue-chip shares rather than towards high-growth ASX stocks.

Think Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW), Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), and even CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL). These shares are each huge in scale, have a long history of paying dividends to shareholders, and they yield somewhere in the 2% to 2.5% range, at the time of writing.

On a 3% yielding portfolio, you could earn a little more, at closer to $21,000 per year in dividend income, off the same balance.

Stocks around the 3% level typically offer investors a balance between a moderate, reliable passive income, and some capital growth potential.

Think Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), and Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES). These powerhouses all offer a yield of around 3% to 3.5% at the time of writing.

What about a 4% to 5% yielding superannuation portfolio?

If your superannuation portfolio yields closer to 4% or 5%, you could earn even more, at closer to $28,000 or $35,000 per year in passive income, respectively.

This is often considered by investors as the "sweet spot" between stability and growth. Companies in this bracket are typically large-scale blue chips, major banks, or defensive infrastructure shares. 

For example, Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), Medibank Private Ltd (ASX: MPL), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), Deterra Royalties Ltd (ASX: DRR), Transurban Group (ASX: TCL), and Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) all yield around this bracket, at the time of writing.

What about higher yielding ASX shares, around the 6% to 8% level?

It's possible to earn even more if your superannuation investment portfolio is high yield, but this comes with a lot more risk. Investors would need to accept lower growth, or potentially even share price declines, in place of a higher passive income.

There are still plenty of options around this level, though.

Some examples are Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN), Premier Investments Ltd (ASX: PMV), or Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK). 

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) also typically offer a higher yield thanks to their predictable rental income. Such as, Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (ASX: CLW), Waypoint REIT Ltd (ASX: WPR), and HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (ASX: HDN).

The post How much passive income can I earn off a $700,000 superannuation balance? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Rio Tinto report?

• Oyu Tolgoi copper production up 29% year-to-date; Q3 output reached 114,000 tonnes (+27% YoY).
• Global iron ore sales of 90.8 million tonnes for the quarter, up 3% from Q3 2025.
• Pilbara iron ore sales increased 2% YoY to 85.7 million tonnes in Q3.
• Lithium carbonate equivalent production rose 33% year-to-date to 40,300 tonnes.
• Alumina production grew 10% YoY, with stable aluminium output and progress on Pacific smelter repowering.
• Year-to-date capital release exceeded US$2 billion under its US$5–10 billion program.

What else do investors need to know?

Rio Tinto maintained its full-year production and unit cost guidance across key commodities. While the company faced higher diesel costs and foreign exchange impacts, these were managed within existing forecasts. Major projects like the Simandou iron ore ramp-up and aluminium repowering initiatives remain on track.

The group highlighted robust operational momentum heading into year-end, supported by ongoing initiatives to boost safety, productivity, and reliability. In the third quarter, it signed further power agreements and progressed capital release efforts, including divestments in desalination and surplus land.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove volatility in energy and freight markets, but Rio Tinto's operations continued with minimal disruption. The company continues to monitor supply chain risks and maintain contingencies.

What did Rio Tinto management say?

Rio Tinto Chief Executive Simon Trott said:

We delivered strong operational performance in the third quarter. Oyu Tolgoi copper production increased 29% year-to-date, with the operation running at a ~450 kt annualised rate in the quarter, and global iron ore sales are up 3% year-to-date. The Simandou iron ore mine hit an annualised production run-rate of ~10 Mtpa (100% basis) in the quarter as the project continues to ramp up.

We are finishing the year with momentum, with significant opportunities to accelerate improvements in safety, productivity and reliability through implementation of our operating system. We remain on track for a $1.8 billion annualised productivity benefit run-rate by the end of 2026. Our major projects remain on schedule and budget, underwriting our growth profile to 2030.

We made further significant steps in decarbonising our business in the third quarter, with our Pacific Aluminium smelter repowering arrangements now well progressed.

Today, we announce that we have achieved more than $2 billion of capital release year-to-date, as we actively manage our portfolio with discipline to maximise long-term value, as part of the $5 to 10 billion capital release program.

What's next for Rio Tinto?

Looking ahead, Rio Tinto expects to maintain its operational momentum with major projects such as Simandou iron ore, Brockman Syncline 1, and new lithium developments progressing on schedule. The business remains focused on capturing a US$1.8 billion productivity benefit by the end of 2026 and advancing its decarbonisation goals, including further aluminium smelter repowering.

Exploration and evaluation spending has risen, especially in copper. The company will continue its disciplined approach to capital allocation, with further asset sales expected to deliver on capital release targets.

Rio Tinto share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Rio Tinto shares have risen 26%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has fallen 2% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Rio Tinto provides Q3 2026 production update appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to fall

The Australian share market is expected to fall on Wednesday following a poor session on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 30 points or 0.35% lower. In the United States, the Dow Jones fell 0.35%, the S&P 500 dropped slightly, and the Nasdaq was down 0.15%.

Oil prices mixed

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) will be on watch on Wednesday after a mixed night for oil prices. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 1% to US$94.69 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.45% to US$106.16 a barrel. Traders are assessing the impacts of the Russian diesel supply deal and the Saudi-Houthi conflict.

Buy PLS shares

The team at Bell Potter has upgraded PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares this morning following a period of weakness. Although the broker has reduced its lithium price forecasts, it remains positive and has upgraded PLS shares to a buy rating with a trimmed price target of $4.40 (from $5.20). It said: "We upgrade to a Buy recommendation on recent share price weakness. At current lithium market prices, PLS will generate substantial earnings and cash flow with the restart of the 200ktpa Ngungaju processing plant."

Gold price softens

ASX 200 gold shares Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a subdued session on Wednesday after the gold price eased overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 0.1% to US$4,187.2 an ounce. Traders were selling gold ahead of the release of US inflation data.

Rio Tinto update

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares will be on watch on Wednesday when the mining giant releases its quarterly update. Investors will no doubt be looking to see if Rio Tinto remains on course to achieve its guidance in 2026. It is targeting copper production of 800kt to 870kt and iron ore sales of 343Mt to 366Mt. Costs are expected to be US$23.5 to US$25 per tonne for iron ore and 30 US cents to 50 US cents per pound for copper. Elsewhere, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) is holding its annual general meeting today and will be worth watching.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Rio Tinto is involved with a number of commodities including iron ore, copper, aluminium, bauxite and lithium. Not many miners around the world have as much commodity diversification as Rio Tinto.

The ASX mining share may be best known as an Australian iron ore miner, but there's a lot more to the business now. I think that makes it a much more appealing business than it was several years ago.

For me, there are at least three compelling reasons to consider the business.

Growing copper exposure

Iron ore prices can be volatile and don't seem to have a strong outlook at present because of headwinds for both supply and demand. Non-Australian regions are looking to increase iron ore production (supply), and the huge Chinese residential construction boom isn't happening these days (demand).

Rio Tinto has deliberately and significantly increased its exposure to copper with a number of projects. Copper is essential for a number of growth areas such as electricity grids, renewable energy, electric vehicles and so on.

One of the company's key growth projects is Oyu Tolgoi, a huge copper operation in Mongolia. At peak production, Oyu Tolgoi is expected to produce 500,000 tonnes per annum of copper.

I think the 2026 half-year result strongly demonstrated the copper division's performance. The sold copper price increased by 35.5%, while copper operating earnings (EBITDA) soared by 84% to US$5.7 billion. I'm not expecting every result to see that much growth.

Lithium mining

I think it was a smart move by Rio Tinto to acquire Arcadium Lithium a couple of years ago, at a time when the sector was facing significant pessimism.

Its exposure to lithium now looks very appealing, with how the lithium price has rebounded, and electric vehicle demand has increased following the fuel uncertainty because of the Middle East.

The company is not generating a lot of earnings from this division because it's still developing its projects. But in the first half of FY26, the average realised lithium carbonate price rose 22% to US$18,960, segment revenue rose 84% to US$568 million, and underlying operating profit (EBITDA) rose 419% to US$218 million.

If lithium battery demand continues to grow, predominantly due to electric vehicles, then this division could become a meaningful contributor in the coming years.

African iron ore

It's possible that Australian iron ore may lose some of its strategic significance in the coming years.

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) recently highlighted that there are ongoing negotiations with China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), a key buyer of iron ore. It could become harder to get a great price for Australian iron ore.

Meanwhile, Rio Tinto is working on a huge African iron ore project called Simandou. The fact that it's in partnership with Chinese operators (and the Government of Guinea) hopefully bodes well for the future realised (sold) iron ore price.

The scale of this project could mean significant production and appealing profit margins. I think it's a good idea to diversify away from Australian ore.

Overall, I believe the three factors above could lead to strong profits and good dividends, making Rio Tinto's share price appealing.

The post 3 reasons why the Rio Tinto share price could be a buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The battle of the mining titans on the ASX often boils down to two names: Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO). For Aussie investors seeking exposure to resources, these two offer world-class scale, strong dividend histories, and a front-row seat to the global iron ore trade. But if you're pondering "Fortescue vs Rio Tinto shares," what makes one stand out over the other right now? Here's my take.

The case for Fortescue

Fortescue is a pure-play iron ore producer based in Western Australia's Pilbara region. Over the past two decades, it's evolved from a latecomer into the world's fourth-largest iron ore miner, with operations including Chichester, Solomon, and Western Hubs, plus its own port and railway infrastructure. Fortescue's focus on efficiency and cost control means it's earned its reputation as a very profitable, high-yielding miner.

What leaps out in the numbers is Fortescue's fully franked 7.04% dividend yield, one of the highest yields on the ASX, supported by a payout of $1.08 per share. The company sits on a market cap of $47.23 billion, with a P/E ratio of 11.47 — noticeably lower than Rio Tinto's. Fortescue manages integrated infrastructure from mine to port, giving it a cost advantage over some rivals.

Despite these strengths, Fortescue shares are down 25.4% year to date, reflecting recent commodity price volatility and market sentiment. Still, for investors hoping for strong passive income from resources, the mix of yield, franking, and scale is compelling.

The case for Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto is a giant in global mining, with a diversified portfolio beyond iron ore. Alongside its huge Pilbara iron ore operation, Rio produces aluminium, copper, and emerging minerals like lithium. This breadth not only gives Rio some insulation from wobbly iron ore prices, but also means it taps into global trends around electrification and infrastructure.

Rio's market cap leads the sector at $60.37 billion, and its shares currently yield 4.09%, fully franked. The company's annual dividend per share is a hefty $6.63, and its P/E ratio sits at 15.31 — higher than Fortescue's, perhaps reflecting Rio's diversification and consistent profit stream. Rio has been a fixture on the ASX since 1962 and has grown dramatically through both acquisition and organic means.

What's also striking is recent momentum: Rio shares are up 15.1% year to date, far outpacing Fortescue. This price action hints that the market is warming to Rio's more diversified model, or at least viewing it as a safer bet amid sector turbulence.

Valuation comparison

To make the key differences clear, here's how the metrics stack up:

Note: While EPS for both companies is positive, the P/E ratios reflect materially different share price levels and capital structures, not just profitability.

It's clear that Fortescue offers a juicier yield and a lower P/E, but Rio claims a bigger market cap and stronger recent price momentum. Both companies pay fully franked dividends.

Recent share price momentum

Comparing recent share price performance up to 9 October 2026:

• Fortescue closed at $15.34, falling 2.85% on the day and down 25.4% year to date.
• Rio Tinto closed at $162.37, rising 0.25% on the day and up 15.1% year to date.

These numbers make it clear that while Rio has delivered strong gains in 2026 so far, Fortescue has faced heavy selling pressure, likely due to macro and sector-specific headwinds.

Which is the better buy?

If I had to make the call today, my pick would be Rio Tinto. The reason is twofold: firstly, the diversified business spreads risk across various minerals and markets, meaning it's not just a play on iron ore prices. Secondly, that 15.1% year-to-date return shows clear positive momentum, suggesting the market appreciates Rio's current position and outlook.

That said, Fortescue's much higher dividend yield, lower P/E, and deep franking credits could make it a better income play for investors who believe iron ore prices will rebound. But the steep -25.4% YTD return makes me cautious for now, as it may signal deeper sector weakness or company-specific challenges.

Bottom line: I'm leaning toward Rio Tinto as the better-balanced and more resilient choice today — but wouldn't rule out Fortescue as an option for yield hunters chasing a recovery.

The post Fortescue vs Rio Tinto: Which ASX mining giant is the better buy today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Meanwhile, brokers have lifted their ratings on several ASX 200 shares this week. 

Let's take a look.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

The Northern Star Resources share price is $24.12, up 0.4% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 gold share has risen 6%.

Ord Minnett upgraded Northern Star Resources shares to a buy rating on Monday.

The broker bumped up its 12-month price target from $19.70 to $25.85.

This suggests a potential 7% upside ahead.

Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR)

The Liontown share price is 77 cents, down 3.5% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 lithium share has crumbled 36%.

UBS upgraded Liontown shares to a buy rating today.

The broker lowered its 12-month price target from $1.40 to $1.20.

This suggests a potential 55% upside ahead.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

The Rio Tinto share price is $161.89, down 0.1% on Friday.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 mining share has descended 10%.

RBC Capital upgraded Rio Tinto shares to a hold rating this week.

The broker shaved its 12-month price target from $154 to $152.

This suggests a potential 6% downside ahead.

QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE)

The QBE share price is $24.77, up 1.6% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 insurance share has ripped 13%.

Citi upgraded QBE shares to a buy rating yesterday.

The broker raised its 12-month price target from $24.20 to $26.70.

This indicates possible gains of 8% over the next year. 

Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR)

The Sandfire Resources share price is $21.93, down 0.8% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 copper share has declined 4%.

UBS upgraded Sandfire Resources shares to a hold rating yesterday.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $23.30.

This implies a potential 6% upside ahead.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC)

The Lynas Rare Earths share price is $12.57, up 1.4% today.

This ASX 200 mining share has fallen 19% over the past month.

Ord Minnett upgraded Lynas shares to a buy call with a $14 target.

This implies potential capital growth of 11% over the next year.

Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB)

The Hub24 share price is $64.75, up 0.6% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 financial share has fallen 12%.

UBS upgraded Hub24 shares to a buy rating on Wednesday.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $77.35.

This suggests a potential 19% upside ahead.

Challenger Ltd (ASX: CGF)

The Challenger share price is $10.14, up 3.5% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 financial share has lifted 4%.

UBS upgraded Challenger shares to a buy rating on Tuesday.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $11.50.

This suggests potential capital growth of 13% over the next year. 

IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO)

The IGO share price is $6, down 3.2% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 lithium share has tanked 26%.

UBS upgraded this lithium and nickel miner to a buy call today.

The broker reduced its price target from $8.85 to $8.55.

This implies a potential 42% upside ahead.

The post 9 ASX 200 shares upgraded by brokers this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It also comfortably exceeds what the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) determines is necessary for a comfortable retirement.

It's a solid amount of money to support a good retirement lifestyle, but there is an additional bonus. A balance as high as $950,000 can also generate a great passive income from ASX dividend shares.

Here's how much you could earn.

What passive income could a $950,000 superannuation balance generate?

To calculate your potential annual passive income, you need to multiply your total superannuation balance by the overall dividend yield of your portfolio.

But obviously, the answer changes depending on what that yield is.

Generally, as your yield goes up, the passive income you can earn off the same balance also increases.

Break it down for me by yield

If your portfolio is low-yielding, at around 3%, you'll be able to earn around $28,500 per year in passive income. That's because $950,000 x 3% = $28,500 in dividend payments.

There are lots of stable options around this level. Investment bank Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) yields around 3%, as does banking giant Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) and conglomerate Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES).

Then, if you increase your yield closer to 4%, you could earn a little more. A $950,000 portfolio could generate around $38,000 per year at this yield.

There are still lots of great options around the 4% level. Think mining giants BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), or telcos like Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS). Some of the other major banks, including National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) also yield around this level at the time of writing.

If you can raise your yield higher towards 5%, your passive income would increase to around $47,500 every year. 

My top 5% yielding ASX shares would be defensive infrastructure companies like Transurban Group Ltd (ASX: TCL) or Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure Ltd (ASX: DBI). 

Raise your portfolio's yield even higher to 6% and you could earn a $57,000 annual dividend income off the same superannuation portfolio. That's a decent passive income!

Around this level, I'd lean towards shares like APA Group Ltd (ASX: APA) or AGL Group Ltd (ASX: AGL). These both have a long history of paying long term reliable dividends to shareholders and they also yield around the 6% level.

Can't I just invest in the highest yield stock I can find so I can earn more off my superannuation balance?

There are dividend shares available which pay much higher yields, some which even exceed over 15%. 

But remember, the general rule is that the higher the yield, the more volatility and risk associated with that stock.

When it comes to ASX dividends, high-yielding shares could be cyclical businesses that fluctuate significantly with market cycles, niche companies with strong cash conversion, or perhaps they have discounted share prices. 

It doesn't mean high-yield shares should be avoided, but instead, they should be part of a diversified portfolio.

The post How much passive income can I earn from a $950,000 superannuation balance? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.