This strength reflects improving sentiment across commodities and growing confidence in long-term demand for materials linked to electrification and global economic growth.

With that backdrop, is it better to own a diversified mining giant with exposure across multiple commodities, or a focused lithium producer with direct leverage to one of the most important trends in energy?

PLS: A pure-play on lithium demand

PLS offers a clear and direct exposure to lithium.

Its Pilgangoora operation is one of the largest hard-rock lithium assets globally, and the company has built scale alongside a strong balance sheet and operational discipline.

In its latest results, the business reported a 47% increase in revenue to $624 million and a significant lift in margins, supported by higher realised prices and strong execution.

What stood out to me most is the operating leverage. When lithium prices strengthen, that tends to flow through quickly to earnings. That creates the potential for strong upside during favourable market conditions.

There are also broader themes supporting demand. The ongoing energy transition continues to drive interest in electric vehicles and battery storage. And with war in the Middle East influencing fuel markets, there is increasing attention on energy security and alternative solutions, which could support lithium demand over time.

For investors who want direct exposure to that theme, PLS offers a clean and focused way to access it.

Rio Tinto: Scale, diversification, and consistency

Rio Tinto brings a very different profile.

It operates across iron ore, copper, aluminium, and lithium, with a global portfolio of tier-one assets. That diversification creates multiple sources of earnings and reduces reliance on any single commodity.

The scale of the business is also significant. In its FY25 results, Rio Tinto delivered underlying EBITDA of US$25.4 billion, supported by strong production across key commodities and continued operational discipline.

The company has a long track record of returning capital to shareholders, with dividends paid at the top end of its payout range over the past decade. And its latest result continued this trend.

There is also a clear pathway for growth. Rio Tinto continues to invest in copper and lithium projects, alongside its core iron ore operations. Its pipeline includes developments that could support production growth over the coming years, while maintaining a strong balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation.

For me, this is a business that combines scale with adaptability.

Valuation

Based on CommSec consensus estimates, PLS shares are trading on around 16 times FY27 earnings, while Rio Tinto shares sit closer to 19 times FY27 earnings.

Although this suggests that PLS shares are better value, it is worth remembering that Rio Tinto usually trades at a premium. This reflects its scale, diversified earnings base, and long track record of delivering through different commodity cycles.

And for me, that premium feels justified.

Rio Tinto provides exposure to iron ore, copper, aluminium, and lithium, alongside a pipeline of projects that can support future growth. It also generates significant cash flow and continues to return capital to shareholders over time.

PLS has the potential to deliver stronger returns in a favourable lithium environment, but its single-commodity exposure means it lacks diversification and could be deemed higher risk.

As a result, I would lean toward Rio Tinto as the better buy today due to its broader exposure and more consistent earnings profile.

Foolish takeaway

Both companies are benefiting from strong commodity demand and are executing well.

PLS offers a focused way to gain exposure to lithium and the energy transition, with the potential for strong upside when conditions are supportive. Rio Tinto brings scale, diversification, and a long history of delivering returns across cycles.

For me, Rio Tinto shares stand out as the better buy right now, supported by its broader earnings base and ability to perform across different market environments.

The post PLS vs Rio Tinto shares: Which is the better buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The market was caught off-guard by news of a major fire at one of Australia's two oil refineries yesterday.

This will undoubtedly add pressure to the fuel supply chain and potentially add to inflation and the chances of higher interest rates.

Amid the growing global fuel crisis, brokers have indicated continuing confidence in several ASX 200 shares.

These companies received renewed buy ratings this week.

Let's review.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

The Rio Tinto share price closed at $172.60 on Thursday, down 0.7%.

Over the past month, the ASX mining giant has lifted 11.6%.

Macquarie reiterated its buy rating on Rio Tinto stock this week.

The broker raised its 12-month price target from $168 to $183.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ)

The ANZ share price finished the session at $37.73, down 1.3%.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 bank share has edged 0.75% higher.

Morgan Stanley maintained its buy rating on ANZ shares this week.

But the broker shaved its 12-month price target from $37.80 to $37.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

The Xero share price closed at $81.86 yesterday, up a whopping 9%.

In an apparent rebound for the entire tech sector, Xero shares have risen 16.1% since 30 March.

UBS reiterated its buy rating on Xero shares this week.

However, the broker slashed its 12-month target from $174 to $127.

Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN)

The Paladin Energy share price closed at $14.15, up 2.6% on Thursday.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 uranium share has rocketed 27.6%.

Morgan Stanley kept its buy rating in place with a $14.45 price target this week.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32)

The South32 share price finished yesterday's trading day at $4.62, down 0.2%.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 mining share has lifted 11.1%.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its buy recommendation this week.

The broker also lifted its share price target from $4.70 to $5.

Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX: ILU)

The Iluka Resources share price closed at $7.77, up 4%.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 mineral sands share has ripped 20.7%.

Morgan Stanley maintained a buy rating and raised its target from $6.70 to $7.90.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

Zip was the third-strongest performer within the ASX 200 yesterday.

The Zip share price ripped 11.4% higher to $2.05 ahead of its quarterly update today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 financial share has soared 28.1%.

Citi reiterated its buy rating on the buy now, pay later provider this week.

The broker has a $2.60 price target on Zip shares.

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL)

The Coles share price closed at $22.70, up 0.2%, yesterday.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 consumer staples share has lifted 9%.

Jefferies reiterated its buy rating this week.

The broker also raised its share price target on Coles from $23.50 to $25.50.

The post ASX 200 shares with renewed buy ratings this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The latest uptick means the shares are now up 32% for the year-to-date and have soared an impressive 67% higher over the past 12 months.

ASX 200 mining shares went on a rollercoaster ride over the March quarter. Commodity prices rocketed in January, sending South32 higher. In fact, South32 was one of the best performers on the ASX 200 index in January. 

The miner benefited from a perfect storm of strong central bank buying, falling US interest rates, and dwindling expectations for the US dollar. These all drove investors to safe-haven commodities like gold, silver, and copper. 

But it all changed when the war between the US and Iran escalated in late-February. An injection of fear about rising oil prices, energy costs, and supply quickly cooled the mining sector in March. 

While most ASX mining shares have since recovered some of their losses, South32 is streaking ahead. Compared to its mining peers BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), South32 shares have outperformed over the past month, year-to-date and past 12 months.

Why is the South32 share price racing ahead?

South32 mines and produces commodities, including bauxite, aluminium, copper, silver, lead, zinc, nickel, manganese, and metallurgical coal, so it has been well-positioned to absorb the uptick in demand across several minerals and metals.

Unlike BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue, it is not heavily tied to iron or and benefits from diversity across other metals and minerals. 

Because of this diversity, the miner has been able to post some strong financial results, solid production figures and shown it has great momentum.

In January, the miner announced that it had exceeded expectations for first-half production. Alumina production was up 3% in the first half. Meanwhile, aluminium production was up 2%, zinc up 13%, and manganese up 58%. Overall, the company's results were ahead of consensus. 

Later in February the diversified miner reported a 29% jump in profit and 16% increase in underlying earnings.

Can the shares keep climbing?

If this momentum continues, alongside a continued uptick of commodity demand and prices, I think the South32 share price could continue to outpace BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue in 2026.

TradingView data shows that the majority of brokers (12 out of 16) have a buy or strong buy rating on South32 shares. Another three have a hold rating and one rates the shares as a sell.

The average target price of $4.93 implies a potential 6% upside at the time of writing. But some brokers are more bullish and are tipping the share price to jump another 18% to $5.51.

The post Up 67% in a year! The red-hot South32 share price is smashing BHP, Rio and Fortescue appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The mining giant's shares are currently up 1.8% to $175.16, after briefly touching $175.82 earlier in the session. By comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is 0.6% higher to 8,977 points.

That gain leaves the stock up about 20% in 2026 and more than 58% over the past 12 months, among the sector's strongest runs.

With the shares now sitting at the top of their 52-week range, the market appears to be backing stronger commodity prices and a broader earnings base.

Here's what could be driving the latest move.

Copper strength is adding a new growth layer

A big part of the recent optimism appears tied to copper.

While Rio Tinto remains best known for its Pilbara iron ore operations, copper has become a much larger contributor to earnings over the past year.

At its full-year 2025 results, the miner revealed that copper earnings had doubled and were contributing close to 30% of group profits. The increase was driven by stronger prices and increased production at Oyu Tolgoi.

Copper also remains a long-term market favourite, with electrification, data centres, grid investment, and EV demand continuing to support sentiment.

Investors may also be increasingly viewing Rio Tinto as more than an iron ore business, with its broader commodity mix adding to the growth outlook.

Iron ore is still doing the heavy lifting

Even with copper growing quickly, iron ore remains the key earnings engine.

Prices around the US$100 per tonne mark have stayed firmer than many analysts expected heading into 2026. That is helping support cash generation from Rio's low-cost Pilbara operations.

The strong cash flow continues to support dividends, expansion plans, and the balance sheet.

The market is also watching Simandou in Guinea closely, with the project remaining one of the world's most significant long-term iron ore developments.

Foolish Takeaway

I still think Rio Tinto remains one of the highest-quality large-cap miners on the ASX. The latest record high reflects growing confidence in its earnings base from investors.

Iron ore is still driving strong cash flow and dividends. Copper is also giving the business a stronger long-term growth angle tied to electrification and grid demand.

After a 20% gain this year and another record high, the easy re-rating may already be behind it. From here, I would expect gains to be steadier and more closely tied to commodity prices and project execution.

The post Why Rio Tinto shares just hit a new record high on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Both CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) have strong positions in their respective industries, and both have delivered solid returns for investors over time.

But right now, I think the comparison is becoming more interesting.

While Rio Tinto has been performing well, CSL's recent weakness may be creating an opportunity to buy a fallen giant before it recovers.

CSL shares

CSL has had a tough period.

Its recent results disappointed the market, with earnings impacted by restructuring costs, impairments, and policy changes. That has weighed on sentiment and helped drive the share price lower over the past year.

But when I look beyond that, I still see a high-quality global healthcare business.

Demand for plasma therapies, vaccines, and specialty medicines is supported by long-term trends. This includes an ageing population and increasing healthcare needs.

Those drivers have not changed. What has changed is valuation.

After the pullback, CSL shares are now trading on multi-year low earnings multiples. For a business with its track record, that stands out to me.

The company is also actively working through a transformation program aimed at improving efficiency and supporting future growth.

For me, this combination of quality, long-term demand, and a lower starting valuation is what makes CSL shares compelling.

Rio Tinto shares

Rio Tinto has been a very different story.

The company has benefited from strong commodity prices, particularly in copper, which has supported earnings and shareholder returns. Iron ore prices have also been robust.

It is a highly cash-generative business, and that often flows through to dividends. There is also a longer-term story around copper, which is becoming increasingly important for electrification and global infrastructure.

So I can understand why Rio Tinto shares have been performing well.

But that strength can also work the other way. When a company is in favour and performing strongly, a lot of that optimism can already be reflected in the share price.

That does not mean Rio Tinto is not a good investment. It just means the upside from here may be more closely tied to commodity cycles and less to a re-rating.

Which is the better buy?

I think both CSL and Rio Tinto are quality businesses.

If I were looking for income and exposure to commodities, Rio Tinto would still make a strong case.

But if I am thinking about potential returns over the next five years, I would lean toward CSL shares.

The share price has been under pressure, expectations are lower, and the valuation looks more attractive than it has for some time.

If the company can improve execution, deliver on its transformation, and rebuild investor confidence, I think there is scope for a meaningful share price recovery.

Foolish takeaway

Both CSL and Rio Tinto have their place. Rio Tinto offers strong cash flow and exposure to global commodities, particularly when markets are supportive. CSL, on the other hand, looks like a business going through a difficult period but still backed by strong long-term fundamentals.

For me, that creates a more interesting risk-reward opportunity. It may require patience, but I think CSL has the potential to deliver stronger returns from here if things start to fall into place.

The post Better buy? CSL vs Rio Tinto shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Monadelphous report?

• New contracts and extensions valued at around $145 million in total
• Secured a Rio Tinto construction project at Paraburdoo iron ore mine in WA
• Two-year extension to Olympic Dam maintenance contract with BHP in SA
• Two-year extension and expanded scope at Queensland Alumina Limited in QLD
• New construction contract with Harmony Gold at Hidden Valley Gold Mine, PNG

What else do investors need to know?

Monadelphous' work for Rio Tinto at Paraburdoo involves installing a new dust collector and ventilation system for coarse ore stockpile tunnels, with completion expected in early 2027. The company's relationship with BHP has also been extended, covering mechanical and electrical maintenance, planned shutdowns, and project services at Olympic Dam.

At Queensland Alumina in Gladstone, Monadelphous has secured both a contract extension and expanded responsibilities, now including demolition and power generation activities. The company's expertise in the sector is reinforced by more than 30 years of service at this site.

What's next for Monadelphous?

Looking ahead, Monadelphous plans to deliver on these newly awarded and extended contracts while continuing to grow its presence in resources, energy, and infrastructure markets. The company remains focused on leveraging its long-standing client relationships and diversified capabilities to pursue further opportunities, both domestically and internationally.

Monadelphous share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Monadelphous shares have risen 100%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 16% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Monadelphous wins $145m of new and renewed resources sector contracts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

But not all are necessarily buys.

So, let's see what Morgans is saying about three very popular shares this month:

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL)

Morgans has been looking at supermarket giant Coles and sees an opportunity for investors after recent weakness in its share price.

While the broker wasn't overly impressed with its performance in the first half, it has seen enough to upgrade its shares to an accumulate rating and $22.90 price target. It explains :

While COL's 1H26 result was slightly softer than expected, execution remains strong in the core Supermarkets division. […] Despite the slight downgrade to earnings, our target price remains unchanged at $22.90 due to a roll-forward of our valuation to FY27 forecasts. With a 12-month forecast TSR of 15%, we upgrade our rating to ACCUMULATE (from HOLD).

In our view, COL continues to perform well with key Supermarkets metrics such as customer scores, sales growth, cost discipline and store execution remaining solid. We hence view the recent share price pullback as an attractive entry point.

Endeavour Group Ltd (ASX: EDV)

This drinks giant is going through a tough period. And while Morgans has seen a few positives, it thinks investors should keep their powder dry until at least its investor day next month.

The broker has put a hold rating and $3.65 price target on Endeavour's shares. It said:

There were no major surprises in EDV's 1H26 result following the company's trading update in January. While EDV continues to work on its refreshed strategy with further details to be provided at an investor day on 27 May, management confirmed that the combined Retail and Hotels portfolio will be retained. Management also noted that they will continue investing in Dan Murphy's to restore its price leadership, while accelerating hotel renewals and electronic gaming machine (EGM) replacements. We decrease FY26-28F underlying EBIT by between 0-1%. Our target price falls to $3.65 (from $3.70) and we retain our HOLD rating.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

Finally, Rio Tinto shares are fairly valued according to Morgans following a recent pullback.

This has seen the broker put a hold rating and $147.00 price target on the mining giant's shares. While it is a fan of the company, it just isn't cheap enough to call it a buy yet. It explains:

We upgrade RIO from TRIM to HOLD with a revised target price of A$147 (prior A$146). The recent share price pullback closes the valuation stretch, while a lift in our medium-term iron ore assumption from US$80/t to US$85/t provides a firmer earnings floor. RIO remains a top-tier diversified miner. Not cheap enough for a BUY, but the pullback removes the overshoot that justified TRIM. Iron ore earnings platform, copper and aluminium leverage, and lithium optionality, RIO represents an attractive mix with good execution in the Pilbara and Oyu Tolgoi.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Coles, Endeavour, and Rio Tinto shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

All three of the Aussie miners lost ground in the month just past. That came despite a 6% increase in the iron ore price, with the industrial metal ending the month at US$106 per tonne. Copper prices went the other way, however, falling 8% to end March trading for US$12,225 per tonne, according to data from Bloomberg.

Investors will also have been eyeing the impacts from the Iran war. Atop guaranteed higher upcoming fuel costs for the ASX 200 mining shares, they could also potentially be facing diesel supply shortages, which could impact their operations in the months ahead.

Now, as we'll look at below, the three Aussie miners all traded ex-dividend over the month. We'll need to take those passive income payments into account as they'll mitigate the share price declines.

So, how did the ASX 200 mining shares stack up?

I'm glad you asked!

How did the big three ASX 200 mining shares perform in March?

On 27 February, Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares closed at $167.33. When the closing bell sounded on 31 March, shares were swapping hands for $161.43 apiece. This saw the Rio Tinto share price down 3.5% over the month.

Rio Tinto traded ex-dividend on 5 March. The miner will pay the (rounded) $3.60 a share fully-franked dividend on 16 April. If we add that back into the March closing price, then investors holding Rio Tinto shares over the month will have only lost 1.4%.

Turning to Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), the miner closed out February trading for $21.14 a share and ended March trading for $20.31. This saw the Fortescue share price down 3.9% over the month just past.

Fortescue traded ex-dividend on 2 March. The ASX 200 mining share paid out its fully-franked 62 cents a share dividend on 30 March. Adding that back into the March closing price, and investors holding the stock over the month will have lost a lesser 1.0%.

Trailing the pack in March, we have Australia's biggest mining stock, BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).

BHP shares ended February trading for $58.41 and closed out March trading for $50.39 each. This put the ASX 200 mining share down 13.7%.

BHP traded ex-dividend on 5 March. BHP paid its (rounded) $1.04 a share fully-franked dividend on 26 March. But even after we add that back in, investors holding BHP shares over March will have lost 12.0%.

In March, investors also learned that Brandon Craig will take the reins as BHP's new CEO on 1 July.

The post Buying ASX 200 mining shares? Here's how Rio Tinto, Fortescue and BHP stacked up in March appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Today's uptick means the shares are now up 14.4% year to date and 44.3% over the past year.

It hasn't been smooth sailing for the ASX miner, though. 

The share price spiked at an all-time high of $169.74 in mid-February. 

But then war in the Middle East broke out later in the month, sending shockwaves across markets and reigniting inflation and interest rate concerns. 

It caused Rio Tinto's share price to crash nearly 15% in the first three weeks of March as investors sold up their ASX shares over fears of commodity price weakness and operational disruptions.

If I bought $7,500 worth of Rio Tinto shares 10 days ago, what are they worth now?

After a sharp investor sell-off, investors have started buying back in and causing a rebound in the share price.

Since reaching a 10-week low of $144.1 per share on the 23rd of March, Rio Tinto shares have surged 16.8% higher to the trading price at the time of writing.

The turnaround means that $7,500 invested in Rio Tinto shares in the dip 10 days ago is already worth $8,760.

Meanwhile, investors who bought $7,500 of shares 12 months ago would be jumping for joy. Today, that investment would be worth $10,822.50.

Why have Rio Tinto shares rebounded?

There hasn't been any price-sensitive news out of the miner recently to explain the share price recovery. 

But the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) fought back last week, posting a 4.6% gain. It seems like investors are taking advantage of the sell-off and are buying in the dip in the hope that Iran and the US will come to an agreement, which will end the war.

The long-term outlook for mining shares is incredibly positive, with some stating that Australia is in the early stages of a new mining boom. This boom is expected to be driven mostly by a transition to green energy, which could support a huge long-term demand for metals. 

At the same time, Western countries want to become more self-sufficient in key resources, manufacturing, and energy supply.

Can we expect more upside ahead?

Analysts are mostly positive about the outlook for Rio Tinto shares over the next 12 months. 

TradingView data shows that seven out of 15 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the miner's shares. Another seven have a hold rating, and 1 a sell rating.

Analysts expect a maximum target price of $190.42, which implies a potential 13% upside at the time of writing. 

The post $7,500 invested in Rio Tinto shares 10 days ago is now worth… appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The ASX mining share does not produce oil or LNG, but the Middle East impacts may well have an effect on Rio Tinto's earnings.

I think the market may be underestimating the company for the following reasons.

Electrification commodities

The business has worked hard at building its exposure to both copper and lithium in the last few years, which may turn out to be a very smart move.

The last year and a half has seen the world, particularly the US, move away from efforts to electrify (and decarbonise). However the last several weeks has shown how petrol/diesel-powered vehicles are exposed to fuel supply and potential problems that can occur when there's uncertainty relating to Russia or the Middle East.

Copper and lithium are essential for things like electric cars, electric trucks, large-scale batteries, renewable energy and so on. The Middle East events could certainly increase demand for electrification commodities.

I think Rio Tinto's strategic moves here will bear significant financial fruit for the company over the next few years.

Aluminium

Rio Tinto may be best known as an iron ore and copper miner, but there are other commodities in its portfolio that do play an important part. Aluminium is one of the resources that the ASX mining share also produces.

Unfortunately, the ongoing conflict has led to a number of commodity infrastructure assets being targeted in the Middle East. Perhaps surprisingly, the Middle East is an important source of aluminium, producing around 9% of the global supply.

Not only have the Middle East nations not been able to ship their commodities out of the Strait of Hormuz, but production facilities were recently hit.

Aluminium Bahrain runs one of the world's largest smelters, but was recently hit in a Iranian strike, while another large aluminium producer in the UAE was also hit.

The aluminium price reportedly jumped 6% after these developments. Rio Tinto's operations will play an important role in continuing to supply the world with aluminium in the coming months and years.

Iron ore

The final area I want to highlight is iron ore, which has seen the iron ore price increase to US$106 per tonne.

That's certainly not the highest price it has been this decade, but it's a lot stronger than what analysts were expecting.

If the high cost and diesel (and reduced availability) increases production costs, then it could lead to a reduction in global production and provide further support to the iron ore price.

In the longer-term, there is a possibility that increased production from Africa could be a headwind for the iron ore price. While that wouldn't be a boost for Rio Tinto, the ASX mining share is a key component of the African iron ore supply because it's a major shareholder in the new Simandou mine.

In other words, Rio Tinto's iron ore earnings could remain strong and continue making good profit.

While this isn't necessarily the best time to invest in the Rio Tinto share price because it's already up 32% in the last six months, I think its earnings remain on a good trajectory, and may be underrated by the market.

The post 3 reasons why the Rio Tinto share price could be a buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

After a 32% surge in CY25, the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) managed just a 1.1% gain over the first quarter of CY26.

Let's recap.

What happened in the first quarter?

The miners had momentum in January as commodity prices skyrocketed on new year optimism following an extraordinary run in CY25.

The gold price ripped from just over US$4,300 per ounce on 31 December to a new record of US$5,608 on 29 January.

Then came the sell-off, with commodities plummeting over just a few days. The gold price fell 21% to US$4,400 per ounce by 2 February.

The sell-off was triggered by US President Donald Trump nominating the more hawkish contender, Kevin Warsh, to be the next Fed chair.

Investors feared tighter US monetary policy, which would be a headwind for metals prices, so they sold their mining shares to preserve profits.

For the month of January, the ASX 200 materials sector rose 9.5%.

In February, metals prices rebounded as the 5 key drivers of a new commodities supercycle continued to drive demand.

The materials sector lifted a further 9% over the month.

Then came the war.

On 28 February (US time), Israel and the US launched missile strikes on Iran on the basis of eliminating its ability to build nuclear weapons.

This injected fear into markets, with the ensuing oil shock driving oil and gas prices substantially higher.

That's no good for the mining sector, which now faces higher energy costs and potentially constrained supply, which may limit production.

This led to a dramatic dive for ASX 200 mining shares this month.

At the time of writing, the materials sector is down 15.3% over March, with almost all of the gains over January and February wiped out.

What's next for ASX 200 mining shares?

We saw signs of a fightback last week, with ASX 200 materials the fastest rising market sector with a 4.6% gain.

Investors may be buying the dip on ASX 200 mining shares on hopes that negotiations between the US and Iran will end this war soon.

The long-term outlook for mining shares is bright, with Australia in the early stages of a new mining boom driven primarily by the green energy transition, and increasingly, a desire among western nations for greater sovereign manufacturing capability and energy security.

Experts say a new metals supercycle is underway, with the primary beneficiaries being copper, uranium, lithium, rare earths, and silver.

How BHP shares fared in 1Q FY26

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price has lifted 9.8% in the first quarter to $49.93 at the time of writing.

The following chart demonstrates the rollercoaster ride over 1Q CY26 for the market's largest ASX 200 mining share.

BHP shares reached a record $59.39 on 3 March before plummeting as the war in Iran prompted investors to take profits.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares lifted 8.8% over 1Q FY26 to $159.69 today, while Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) fell 8.2% to $20.21 today.

The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price rose fell 1.6% to $53.55 today.

The South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) share price rocketed 19.2% over 1Q CY26 to $4.25 today.

The post ASX 200 mining shares ride a rollercoaster in March quarter appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

To narrow things down, let's now take a look at three ASX shares that Morgans has recently given its verdict on.

Is it recommending them as buys, holds, or sells? Let's find out:

Endeavour Group Ltd (ASX: EDV)

BWS and Dan Murphy's owner Endeavour Group delivered a first-half result that was in line with expectations last month.

However, given that the company is still working its way through its refreshed strategy, it isn't ready to recommend Endeavour shares as a buy. It has put a hold rating and $3.65 price target on them. It said:

There were no major surprises in EDV's 1H26 result following the company's trading update in January. While EDV continues to work on its refreshed strategy with further details to be provided at an investor day on 27 May, management confirmed that the combined Retail and Hotels portfolio will be retained.

Management also noted that they will continue investing in Dan Murphy's to restore its price leadership, while accelerating hotel renewals and electronic gaming machine (EGM) replacements. We decrease FY26-28F underlying EBIT by between 0-1%. Our target price falls to $3.65 (from $3.70) and we retain our HOLD rating.

Magellan Financial Group Ltd (ASX: MFG)

Morgans is positive on this fund manager's merger with Barrenjoey.

In response to the deal, which it believes makes strategic sense, the broker recently upgraded its shares to a buy rating with a significantly improved price target of $12.43.

Its analysts believe the merger could "reinvigorate" Magellan. It said:

MFG has entered into an arrangement to merge with Barrenjoey. We think the deal makes strategic sense and will reinvigorate the MFG story. Nevertheless, deal pricing appears tilted in Barrenjoey's favour (in our view). We assume the merger closes at the end of FY26. Changes to our MFG FY26F/FY27F/FY28F EPS are -27%/+10%/~+25% reflecting the incorporation of the deal and upgrades to our assessment of Barrenjoey's earnings profile (based on new disclosures).

Our price target is set at A$12.43 (previously A$9.80). We think the Barrenjoey merger fundamentally changes MFG's overall outlook, strengthening the business and providing additional pathways to growth. MFG also retains a strong balance sheet (~A$690m of liquidity, post deal). Move to a BUY.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

Finally, Morgans recently became a bit more positive on mining giant Rio Tinto and its shares.

However, it is not quite enough for a buy rating. The broker has put a hold rating and $147.00 price target on its shares. It said:

We upgrade RIO from TRIM to HOLD with a revised target price of A$147 (prior A$146). The recent share price pullback closes the valuation stretch, while a lift in our medium-term iron ore assumption from US$80/t to US$85/t provides a firmer earnings floor. RIO remains a top-tier diversified miner.

Not cheap enough for a BUY, but the pullback removes the overshoot that justified TRIM. [With an] Iron ore earnings platform, copper and aluminium leverage, and lithium optionality, RIO represents an attractive mix with good execution in the Pilbara and Oyu Tolgoi.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Endeavour, Magellan, and Rio Tinto shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

After starting deep in red territory this morning, the ASX 200 dropped as low as 8,379 points during intra-day trading before wrapping up at a flat 8,461 points. That puts the index down 0.65% for the session today.

This rather bleak Monday for ASX investors came after an even more turbulent end to the American trading week on Saturday morning (our time).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) was hit hard, dropping by a nasty 1.73%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) fared even worse, falling by a horrid 2.15%.

But let's get back to this week and our local markets, and check out the damage to the different ASX sectors inflicted by today's market drop.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Major producers targeted

Aluminium Bahrain, which operates one of the world's largest smelters, said on Sunday it was assessing damage to its facility after Iranian attacks over the weekend.

The company said further:

The safety and security of Alba's people remain its top priority and the Company confirms that 2 of Alba's employees sustained minor injuries. Alba is assessing the extent of the damage to its facilities and remains focused on maintaining its operational resilience and the safety of its employees. The Company will provide further updates, as required, in due course.

Meanwhile, there was reported to be significant damage at Emirates Global Aluminium's site after attacks from missiles and drones.

Shares in Australian aluminium producers jumped as a result, with Alcoa Corporation (ASX: AAI) leading the pack with its shares trading 9.2% higher at $93.84.

Shares in South 32 Ltd (ASX: S32) were 6.3% higher in early trade, while Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares were 2.9% higher at $157.64.

The Reuters report on the attacks said the aluminium suppliers in the Persian Gulf region had already been unable to ship to world markets due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  

Aluminium Bahrain had already shut down lines one, two, and three at its site, "which together represent 19% of Alba's total production capacity of 1,623,000 metric tonnes per annum, as an operational measure to preserve business continuity amid ongoing supply and transit disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz''.

The company said further:

This targeted, line-specific action is designed to optimise the utilisation of Alba's existing raw materials inventory and prioritise operational stability across Reduction Lines 4, 5 and 6. By concentrating strategic raw materials' inputs on the most sustainable operating configuration, Alba aims to maintain production resilience, manage working capital prudently, and develop alternatives to reduce exposure to near-term supply volatility. Alba continues to monitor and respond to the situation and will provide updates to the market as appropriate. The Company is also working closely with suppliers and customers to manage commitments and mitigate disruption.

Emirates Global Aluminium claims to be the number one premium aluminium producer in the world, accounting for 4% of global production and 2.83 million tonnes of metal cast in 2025.

Local operators on the ropes

Australia's aluminium industry has been struggling to survive without government support in recent years, with Rio just last week securing a $2 billion taxpayer handout to keep Queensland's Boyne smelter operating until at least 2040.

The post Why are Australian aluminium shares charging higher today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

ASX mining shares have been the worst hit by the war in Iran, with the materials sector losing 15.3% of its value since the conflict began.

Some investors took profits this month after a strong run for ASX 200 mining shares, amid fears that higher diesel prices and potential shortages could hurt earnings and production for 2H FY26.

ASX 200 mining shares have also declined alongside metals prices, with gold down 17%, silver down 22%, lithium carbonate down 8%, and copper down 7% over the month. Iron ore has demonstrated resilience, rising 7% over the period to US$106 per tonne on Friday.

With the US and Iran still negotiating a 15-point plan for peace, it is hoped this war and the ensuing global oil shock will be over soon.

This may have motivated some investors to take up new or enhanced positions in ASX 200 mining shares last week, given the bright long-term outlook for the sector and the opportunity to buy the dip.

Reflecting the miners' fightback last week, the S&P/ASX 300 Metal & Mining Index (ASX: XMM) rose 4.4% while the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gained 1% to finish at 8,516.3 points.

Seven of the 11 market sectors finished in the green last week.

Let's recap.

ASX 200 mining shares fight back

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price increased 6.1% to close at $50.37 on Friday.

BHP shares reached a record $59.39 on 3 March before the war prompted investors to take profits.

Despite last week's rebound, the ASX 200's largest mining stock remains 13.8% lower over 30 days.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares lifted 4.3% to $153.23 last week, while Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) gained 6.5% to $20.19.

The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price soared 9.7% to $56.69.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) shares increased 1.3% to $4.03 per share.

ASX 200 copper share Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) lifted 1.8% to $15.88, while Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC) edged 0.6% lower to $10.14.

ASX 200 lithium shares had a ripsnorter of a week, with PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) rocketing 21.8% to close at $5.15 on Friday.

The Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price soared 20.9% to $1.77, and Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) gained 11.9% to 24 cents.

Nickel and lithium producer IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) lifted 16.5% to $7.93 per share.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) shares closed the week 2.7% higher at $10.08 apiece.

Bauxite and alumina producer Alcoa Corporation CDI (ASX: AAI) lifted 3.5% to $85.95 per share.

What about ASX gold shares?

The market's largest ASX 200 gold share, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) rose 0.3% to close at $18.55 on Friday.

The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price lifted 0.4% to $12.46, and Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) rose 3.1% to $146.85.

Among the mid-caps, Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) shares lifted 2.1% to $3.96, and Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) rose 1.1% to $6.26.

Gold and copper miner, Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP) fell 3.5% to $9.76.

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

The post ASX 200 mining shares rebound after March sell-off creates opportunities appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

ASX mining shares have been the worst hit by the war in Iran, with the Metal & Mining Index falling 15.7% vs. a 7.3% drop for the ASX 300.

Mining shares have fallen as investors sell out on fears that diesel shortages and higher oil prices will impact earnings and production.

Perennial portfolio manager Sam Berridge told the Australian Financial Review (AFR):

Australia is uniquely sensitive to this because our fuel inventory is so low, and we import such a high proportion of refined products.

Operations in the US, Brazil and Canada are definitely not going to run out of diesel and won't have to curtail production … so we are seeing more opportunities overseas where there isn't the same level of diesel supply risk that Australian miners have.

Berridge, who runs Perennial's Strategic Natural Resources Trust, has sold the fund's ASX gold shareholdings but kept overseas stocks.

US and Iran are continuing negotiations to end the war, but no one knows how long this will take.

The longer the conflict drags on, leaving the Strait of Hormuz virtually non-operational, the more severe this oil supply shock will be.

While we watch and wait, here are the experts' recommendations on three ASX mining shares.

Turaco Gold Ltd (ASX: TCG)

The Turaco Gold share price is 61 cents, up 0.8% today and down 23% since the conflict in Iran began.

Morgans maintains a buy rating on the ASX gold mining share with a 12-month price target of $2.19.

This implies a potential 260% upside ahead.

The broker said:

TCG released an MRE upgrade for the Afema Gold Project lifting the resource base to 4.65Moz Au at 1.3g/t Au (up from 4Moz)– a beat on our forecasts of 4.5Moz Au at 1.1g/t Au.

Afema now ranks as one of the largest undeveloped gold resources on the ASX.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

The Rio Tinto share price is $150.35, up 0.3% today and down 10% since the war began.

This week, UBS reiterated its hold rating on the diversified ASX 200 mining share with a $160 target.

This implies a potential 6% upside from here.

Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR)

The Liontown share price is $1.69, down 2.6% on Thursday and down 1.5% since the war began.

On The Bull this week, Tony Locantro from Alto Capital revealed a sell rating on this ASX lithium mining share.

Locantro explained:

With earnings still developing and the company transitioning through a capital intensive ramp-up phase, the risk-reward balance at current levels favours taking profits following the sector's recent re-rating.

The post 3 ASX mining shares: Buy, hold, or sell? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the time of writing, Rio Tinto shares are up 2.18% to $147.56.

Despite today's gain, the stock remains under pressure in the short term, down close to 8% over the past month.

Here's what the company announced.

Landmark deal secures smelter future

According to the release, Rio Tinto has partnered with the Queensland and Commonwealth governments to secure the long-term future of the Boyne aluminium smelter in Gladstone.

The agreement includes up to $2 billion in government support over 10 years through to 2040. This builds on earlier power purchase agreements (PPAs) signed by Rio Tinto, which underpin around $7.5 billion in new renewable energy projects.

The deal is aimed at ensuring the smelter remains internationally competitive once its current power contract expires in 2029.

Boyne Smelters is a key asset in Rio Tinto's aluminium division and plays a central role in its broader Australian operations. The facility is one of the largest aluminium smelters in the country and supports thousands of jobs across the supply chain.

Management noted the agreement will allow the smelter to transition towards lower-cost and lower-emissions energy over time.

Shift towards renewable energy

A key part of the announcement is Rio Tinto's continued move towards renewable energy to power its aluminium operations.

The company has already contracted more than 2.8GW of renewable energy capacity in Queensland, alongside over 600MW of storage.

This includes projects such as the Upper Calliope solar development, the Bungaban wind project, and the Smoky Creek and Guthrie's Gap solar and battery system.

In addition, Rio Tinto has agreed to purchase 40% of the output from the Lower Wonga solar and battery project.

These developments are expected to provide a more stable and potentially lower-cost energy mix over time. They also reduce exposure to fossil fuel pricing.

What's driving the share price higher?

The share price gain suggests investors are reacting positively to the added long-term certainty from the agreement.

Aluminium production is energy-intensive, and securing a reliable and competitive power supply is critical to maintaining margins.

The deal reduces a key risk for Rio Tinto ahead of the 2029 contract expiry and supports the continued operation of a major asset within its portfolio.

It also aligns with the company's broader strategy to decarbonise its operations while maintaining output.

Foolish Takeaway

Rio Tinto's latest agreement strengthens visibility over one of its key aluminium assets and reduces uncertainty around future energy costs.

While the stock has pulled back in recent weeks, this morning's update shows the company is progressing its long-term initiatives.

The post Rio Tinto just locked in a major deal. Here's why investors are buying today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The ASX 200 materials sector, which is dominated by mining stocks, has slumped 19% while energy shares have rocketed 17%.

It's likely that some investors have sold their ASX mining shares to preserve tremendous recent capital gains.

Before Israel and the US bombed Iran on 28 February, the materials sector was up 19% in 2026 alone.

Even more astounding, ASX 200 materials shares had lifted 56% over the preceding 12 months.

How is the war impacting ASX mining shares?

The war has created a fuel crisis, with the Brent Crude oil price tearing 42% higher in just 30 days.

Gas prices have skyrocketed, too.

European gas prices are up 83%, UK gas is up 91%, and German gas is up 77% over 30 days.

Rising fuel costs are a headwind for mining companies, as well as most other industrial businesses.

Higher operating costs will be partly offset by strong commodity prices after a very strong run last year.

But the more pressing concern is the potential for constrained fuel supply if the war drags on.

This would impact the miners' production, exports, and earnings.

Of course, this may not materialise, with US President Donald Trump repeatedly indicating that the war will be over soon.

But when there's fear in the market, investors often act on emotion, and we're likely seeing a bit of that today.

The longer-term view is that Australia is at the start of a new mining boom that will be different from the last.

Experts say there are 5 key drivers behind a new commodities supercycle that became apparent last year.

The Iran conflict won't change that.

In a new article, David Rumbens, a partner at Deloitte Access Economics, says:

Beyond the headline disruption, the latest data paints a positive picture of Australian mining output, investment and exploration.

Mining was the fastest-growing industry in the December quarter, becoming an increasingly important driver of Australia's economic growth.

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) National Accounts show that mining gross value added grew by 3.7% over the year to December 2025 – well above GDP growth of 2.6% — marking the first time in nearly two years that the sector has outpaced the broader economy.

Miners ramping up exploration spending

Rumbens said mining exploration spending is growing, with gold expenditure surging to a record high in the December quarter.

He said total new-deposit spending across all commodities grew 7% year over year.

The lift in exploration suggests the industry is investing to sustain its production base as existing reserves deplete.

While exploration and output are expanding, Rumbens said investment had not yet followed to the same extent.

He said capital expenditure has stabilised at about 1.9% of GDP per annum over the past six years.

That's well down on the peak of 6.2% during the height of the last mining boom.

Rumbens said Deloitte's Tracking the Trends 2026 highlights the growing role of technology in maintaining mining's competitive edge.

The report notes that the exponential growth of AI is presenting transformative opportunities to elevate operational resilience and competitiveness by boosting productivity and revolutionising mineral discovery.

In exploration, it identifies that the starting point for future discoveries could be data, with firms that digitise and integrate diverse sources best positioned to leverage AI for faster, smarter discoveries.

Rumbens said export revenues are expected to hold above $370 billion over the next two years, with volumes near historical highs.

How have the major ASX mining shares fared since the war began?

The market's largest ASX mining share has fallen significantly since the conflict in Iran began.

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price has fallen 17% to $48.46 today.

Last week, UBS reiterated its hold rating on BHP shares with a 12-month price target of $52.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its buy rating with a target of $56.

The Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) share price has fallen 11% since 28 February to $148.74 on Tuesday.

Last week, Morgan Stanley reiterated its hold rating on Rio Tinto shares with a $146 target.

The market's largest ASX 200 gold mining share, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), has fallen 42% since 28 February to $17.63.

A second guidance downgrade from the miner contributed to its decline this month.

Last week, Ord Minnett reiterated its buy rating on Northern Star shares.

However, the broker slashed its price target from $29.70 to $23.70.

JP Morgan downgraded the ASX 200 gold mining share to a hold rating with a $24 target.

The largest ASX 200 lithium mining share, PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS), has fallen 12% to $4.54.

Yesterday, Ord Minnett reiterated its buy rating with a slightly improved 12-month price target of $5.55.

Last week, UBS maintained its hold rating on PLS shares with a $4.95 target.

The post ASX mining shares have slumped but long-term outlook is positive appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Tuesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 set to rebound

The Australian share market looks set for a good session on Tuesday following a positive start to the week in the US. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 159 points or 1.9% higher. In late trade on Wall Street, the Dow Jones is up 1.5%, the S&P 500 is up 1.25%, and the Nasdaq is 1.5% higher.

Oil prices crash

It could be a difficult session for ASX 200 energy shares Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) after oil prices crashed overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 10.3% to US$88.18 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 11.6% to US$99.14 a barrel. This was driven by news that Donald Trump has paused strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days.

BHP and Rio Tinto shares to rebound

It looks set to be a good session for BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares on Tuesday. Both miners' NYSE listed shares are charging higher on Monday night and up 4.5% and 3.5%, respectively. Improving investor sentiment and a strong rebound in the copper price overnight appear to be behind this.

Gold price sinks

ASX 200 gold shares including Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) could have a poor session on Tuesday after the gold price sank overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 3.6% to US$4,410.7 an ounce. Inflation fears have been weighing on the precious metal.

Boss Energy named as a buy

The team at Bell Potter has named Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) shares as a buy. In response to concerns over high diesel prices impacting mining margins, the broker highlights that the uranium miner's project is powered by the grid. It said: "The Honeymoon project draws power directly from the grid (connected to Broken Hill). In-situ-recovery operations by nature do not require high-diesel consuming truck and shovel fleet typically seen in open-pit operations. The only exposure is via 3rd party site deliveries for reagents." It has put a buy rating and $1.95 price target on the ASX 200 share.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are dropping:

Electro Optic Systems Holdings Ltd (ASX: EOS)

The EOS share price is down 5% to $9.13. This defence and space company's shares are falling today after it confirmed that its CEO, Dr Andreas Schwer, has sold shares as planned. It advised that on Thursday, Dr Schwer sold 1.5 million shares for an average of $9.28 per share. This equates to a total consideration of approximately $13.9 million. EOS notes that Dr Schwer still holds approximately 1.4 million shares in EOS. These are valued at approximately $12.7 million based on its current share price. The company's leader has "no intention to make further divestments before the next trading window which may open in mid-April 2026."

Latitude Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: LFS)

The Latitude share price is down 7% to 94 cents. This has been driven by the consumer finance company's shares going ex-dividend this morning. Last month, the company released its FY 2025 results and declared a final fully franked dividend of 5 cents per share. Eligible shareholders can look forward to receiving this payout next month on 21 April.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

The Northern Star share price is down almost 3% to $18.46. This follows a pullback in the gold price overnight amid concerns that soaring energy prices could lead to higher inflation in the United States and send interest rates higher. This would be bad news for gold, which is a safe haven asset and popular when interest rates are low. The S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold index is down 2% at the time of writing.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

The Rio Tinto share price is down almost 3% to $146.94. Investors have been selling miners on Friday following a drop in base metal prices overnight. According to CommSec, copper futures dropped 2.2% and hit three-month lows on concerns that surging oil prices could hit global economic growth. This has led to the S&P/ASX 200 Resources index falling 1.4% this afternoon.

The post Why EOS, Latitude, Northern Star, and Rio Tinto shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.