Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares are continuing their rally on Thursday afternoon. The miner's shares are up another 1.36% to $191.57 at the time of writing, marking their highest-ever trading price. At one point this morning, the shares reached as high as $192.30 each.
After dipping to a 2026-low of $144.41 in March, Rio Tinto shares have rocketed 32% higher.
The shares are now up 29% for the year to date and are an impressive 59% higher than just 12 months ago.
The latest gains now put Rio Tinto in 8th place on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) by market capitalisation,
Image source: Getty Images
What is pushing Rio Tinto shares higher?
Renewed confidence in the outlook for copper and iron ore – the two key commodities that Rio Tinto produces – has acted as a strong tailwind for the miner's share price recently.
According to Trading Economics data, copper futures climbed to around US$6.6 per pound on Wednesday, hitting fresh all-time highs on stronger Chinese demand and growing supply concerns.
Strong copper demand is linked to AI data centres, electrification, and renewable energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, on the supply side, disruptions to sulphuric acid availability, linked to the conflict between the US and Iran, raise concerns about tighter global supply.
Meanwhile, iron ore prices have also reached a multi-year high of around US$111.28 per tonne, according to Trading Economics data. The latest trading price represents a 5.6% increase over the past month and a 10% increase from this time last year.
But it's not only surging prices that have ignited soaring investor sentiment. In April, the miner also posted an impressive production result for the first quarter of FY26.
The copper miner posted a 9% year-on-year increase in copper equivalent production in the first quarter of FY26. Iron ore production in the Pilbara region also jumped 13%, making it the second-best Q1 production since 2018, despite weather disruptions and reduced shipments.
Rio Tinto also said it is focusing on production expansion across its core commodity assets.
Can the shares keep climbing higher?
The majority of analysts currently hold a buy or strong buy rating on Rio Tinto shares, but after the latest rally, most target prices represent a downside at the time of writing.
Market Index data shows that most brokers have a buy rating on the shares, and the $166.26 average target price implies a potential 13% downside over the next 12 months, based on the share price at the time of writing. However, it's important to note that the data hasn't been updated since the 4th of May. Back then, Rio Tinto shares were around $20 less than the current trading price.
TradingView data reflects something similar. Seven out of 15 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the shares. Another seven have a hold rating, and one has a strong sell rating on the miner's stock.
The average $166.35 target price implies a potential 13% downside at the time of writing. Although the maximum $193.78 target price still implies the shares could climb another 1%.
Overall, it's clear that the long-term outlook for the copper (in particular) and iron ore markets is strong, and Rio Tinto's production is climbing steadily.
Some state that Australia is in the early stages of a new mining boom, driven mostly by a transition to green energy.
If that does come to fruition, I expect Rio Tinto shares could very well keep climbing higher.
