S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) dividend shares, including National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) and property developer Stockland Corp Ltd (ASX: SGP), could be among the winners of Treasurer Jim Chalmers' federal budget proposals.
Chalmers will reveal the details of Labor's upcoming 2026-27 federal budget this evening.
Among the bigger shakeups ASX investors are facing is the expected axing of the 50% capital gains tax (CGT) discount currently applied to investments that are sold after being held for more than a year. Investors will instead get credit in line with inflation.
This could have a material impact on investor interest in ASX 200 dividend shares like NAB and Stockland, as franking credits (often applied to dividends) are not expected to be impacted.
Instead, investors will face a bigger hit when they sell ASX growth stocks that have posted sizeable share price gains outpacing inflation.
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Changing the investing equation
Commenting on the potential CGT shakeup that looks to favour ASX 200 dividend shares over high-growth tech and medical stocks, Jacki Neumann, head of capital markets at Sharesies, said:
Reform of the 50% CGT discount changes the equation for growth investors in particular. While a move toward an indexation framework aims for a more equitable environment, it creates a threshold where the tax benefits of indexation diminish once an asset's growth significantly outpaces inflation.
This shift invites a recalibration of risk, where investors will need to weigh their appetite for high-growth assets against the more predictable returns of income-generating investments.
Advantage ASX 200 dividend shares
UBS equities strategist Richard Schellbach also expects the proposed CGT changes will favour the likes of NAB, Stockland, and other quality ASX 200 dividend shares in the banking and real estate sectors over high-growth stocks.
"Usually, budgets have little impact on the equity story. However, these speculated tax changes could matter in terms of altering incentives and shifting flows," Schellbach said (quoted by The Australian Financial Review).
Noting that ASX stocks with strong capital gain potential are likely to become less attractive following the CGT changes, Schellbach pointed to both Stockland and NAB as potential beneficiaries.
NAB shares trade on a fully-franked dividend yield of 4.6%, while Stockland shares trade on an unfranked dividend yield of 6.8%.
As for other ASX 200 dividend shares that could gain from the new federal budget, Schellbach indicated Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ), rail-based transport company Aurizon Holdings Ltd (ASX: AZJ), energy infrastructure company APA Group (ASX: APA), and shopping mall owner Vicinity Centres (ASX: VCX).
