Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are dropping:

29Metals Ltd (ASX: 29M)

The 29Metals share price is down 32% to 25.2 cents. Investors have been selling this copper producer's shares following the release of an update on its progress to reestablish mining at the Xantho Extended orebody at the Golden Grove operation in Western Australia. It advised that based on a new assessment, additional works to further reduce the risk of future potential production interruptions will be needed prior to recommencement of mining. And while there is no change to its copper production guidance for FY 2026, it has downgraded its guidance for zinc, gold, and silver materially.

DGL Group Ltd (ASX: DGL)

The DGL Group share price is down 25% to 40 cents. This has been driven by the release of the chemicals logistics and services supplier's half-year update. DGL Group reported a 5.8% decline in sales revenue to $225 million, a 5% decline in underlying EBITDA to $24.7 million, and a statutory loss after tax of $12.8 million. It notes that its revenue was impacted by ongoing scarcity in used lead acid batteries due to illegal exports.

Fletcher Building Ltd (ASX: FBU)

The Fletcher Building share price is down 1% to $2.44. This morning, the building products company released a quarterly sales update and revealed improvements in volumes. Fletcher Building's CEO, Andrew Reding, said: "Quarterly volumes for the March quarter continued to show early signs of improvement across the portfolio, with the important caveat that this quarter largely preceded the current geopolitical escalation." One negative was the company warning that the "overall impact of the Middle East crisis on the Group's financial performance, including for the FY26 year, cannot be ascertained with certainty at this time."

Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM)

The Newmont share price is down 5% to $156.82. This is despite there being no news out of the gold miner today. However, it is worth noting that most ASX gold stocks are under pressure today. This has led to S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold index falling 2.15% this afternoon.

The post Why 29Metals, DGL, Fletcher Building, and Newmont shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Fletcher Building report?

• Light Building Products volumes up versus both Q2 and prior corresponding period (pcp); Waipapa Pine volumes rose 16.5% vs pcp and Iplex NZ up 15.9% vs pcp
• Australian Light Building Products saw continued improvement, with Laminex AU, Iplex AU, and Fletcher Insulation all reporting positive trends
• Heavy Building Materials remained subdued; Winstone Aggregates down 10.4% vs pcp, Humes down 4.8% vs pcp, but some pockets of project-driven activity emerging
• Distribution saw Frame & Truss sales up 6.6% vs pcp, driven by increased building consents and market share gains
• Residential units taken to profit in Q3 were 93, 24% lower than pcp, mainly due to the timing of long-standing developments

What else do investors need to know?

The bulk of Fletcher Building's Q3 FY26 results reflect trading before the recent escalation in Middle East conflict, which has since heightened geopolitical risk in supply chains, energy, and freight. Management is actively monitoring impact risks and has already secured short-term supply for plastics and fuel, while exploring sourcing diversification and pricing adjustments where needed.

Input cost pressures remain a challenge, with plastic-related price increases up to 36% and fuel-linked surcharges introduced to offset higher costs. Early signs of softening demand have started to appear, particularly through project delays and cautious customer behaviour, though direct impacts to staff and operations have been limited so far.

What did Fletcher Building management say?

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Andrew Reding said:

Quarterly volumes for the March quarter continued to show early signs of improvement across the portfolio, with the important caveat that this quarter largely preceded the current geopolitical escalation. Light Building Products benefited from improved Alterations & Additions (A&A) activity in New Zealand and a broad-based uplift in Australia. Heavy Building Materials remains subdued overall, although we're seeing pockets of activity tied to project work. Distribution, particularly frame & truss, continues to show steady improvement as underlying demand gradually returns. As was the case in prior quarters, trading conditions remained competitive, with ongoing margin pressure and compression continuing across business units and most notably in the Distribution division, Firth and the Steel business units.

What's next for Fletcher Building?

Looking ahead, the company's near-term performance will depend on the continued evolution of global events, particularly through supply chain costs and construction sector demand. Management has flagged uncertainty, but says Fletcher Building is focused on agile planning and prudent risk responses.

The business remains committed to maintaining supply continuity, protecting cash flow, and leveraging its strong balance sheet to manage through any prolonged market volatility. Investors should watch for further updates as the full impacts of geopolitical disruptions become clearer.

Fletcher Building share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Fletcher Building shares have declined 17%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 16% over the same period.

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Today, 307 ASX shares are rising, 48 are steady, and 145 are falling.

Among the fallers are these four companies that have hit 52-week low share prices today.

Are they a buy, hold, or sell?

Let's ask the experts.

Fletcher Building Ltd (ASX: FBU)

The Fletcher Building share price fell to a 52-week low of $2.42 on Tuesday.

This ASX industrials share is down 21% in the year to date (YTD), and down 17% over the past 12 months.

On The Bull this week, Blake Halligan from Catapult Wealth revealed a sell rating on the building materials and services provider.

He said the 1H FY26 report "highlighted ongoing pressure", with net debt remaining elevated and the company cutting capital expenditure.

Halligan said:

Earnings before interest and tax from continuing operations before significant items was $NZ145 million, which was marginally below expectations. The company has announced the sale of its construction division for $NZ315.6 million.

However, broader conditions in New Zealand remain subdued, and a meaningful earnings recovery isn't expected until calendar year 2027. With limited catalysts and no dividend support, better opportunities present elsewhere.

Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG) 

The Guzman Y Gomez share price sank to a record low of $15.48 in earlier trading.

The ASX consumer discretionary share has fallen 26% YTD and tumbled 50% over 12 months.

Morgans has a buy rating on the stock but recently slashed its 12-month price target from $32.30 to $24.

The broker said:

If it was just about Australia, GYG would be doing just fine right now. But it's not just about Australia.

Unfortunately, the pace of network expansion in the US so far has been pedestrian and the restaurants it has opened have lost more money than expected.

GYG has a bit to prove, but we can be certain it is going to give it all it's got to ultimately realise its growth ambitions.

Endeavour Group Ltd (ASX: EDV)

The Endeavour share price fell to a record low of $3.28 today.

Endeavour shares have declined 10% YTD and have fallen 14% over the past 12 months.

Last week, Citi downgraded the ASX consumer staples share to a hold rating.

The broker also reduced its 12-month price target from $4.30 to $3.70.

Healius Ltd (ASX: HLS)

The Healius share price dropped to a record low of 52 cents today.

This ASX healthcare share has crashed 42% in the YTD and 63% over 12 months.

Healius is one of many ASX healthcare shares trading at multi-year lows today.

The sector is facing multiple headwinds due to currency shifts, US tariffs, and higher labour costs and other expenses.

Healius, a pathology services provider, reported improved financial metrics but continuing losses overall in its 1H FY26 report.

The company reported an underlying loss of $11 million for 1H FY26, which was an improvement on its $20.2 million loss for 1H FY25.

Morgans has a hold rating on Healius shares with a 12-month target of 80 cents.

The broker commented:

While management maintained FY26 earnings in line with consensus and operational discipline is improving, sustainable earnings leverage remains an open question and dependent on execution.

The post 4 ASX shares at 52-week lows: Buy, hold, or sell? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the time of writing, the Fletcher share price is up 1.38% to $2.95.

This comes despite weakness in the broader market. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is currently down 1.32% as investors react to escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Here's what the company announced.

Higgins secures 10-year road maintenance contracts

According to the release, Fletcher announced that its subsidiary, Higgins Contractors, has officially signed major road maintenance contracts with New Zealand's transport authority.

The contracts cover the East Waikato, Bay of Plenty, and Hawke's Bay regions. Each agreement runs for 10 years, starting from April 2026.

Higgins had previously been named as the preferred contractor in December 2025. However, the agreements have now been formally signed and locked in.

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Andrew Reding said the agreements are an important milestone for Higgins and provide a strong platform for the next decade.

The company also reminded investors that it has entered into a binding agreement to sell its Construction Division to VINCI Construction. The final purchase price could change depending on the outcome of key contract negotiations.

Fletcher and VINCI are still working through the details and will update the market separately.

What does Fletcher actually do?

Fletcher is one of New Zealand's largest building materials and construction companies.

It operates across New Zealand and Australia. The business makes and supplies building products such as plasterboard, insulation, roofing, piping, and concrete. It also runs trade and retail distribution businesses that supply builders and tradespeople.

Through subsidiaries like Fletcher Construction and Higgins, the group also works on large infrastructure and construction projects.

In recent years, management has reviewed the business and explored selling non-core divisions to streamline operations and strengthen financial performance.

Foolish Takeaway

Fletcher has faced a challenging period, with pressure on earnings and margins in its recent financial results. The share price has also been volatile over the past year, trading between roughly $2.64 and $3.44.

The modest share price gain reflects investor support for the long-term nature of the new road maintenance contracts. Government-backed work that runs for a decade can provide more stable and predictable revenue.

The company is still progressing broader restructuring efforts, and investors will be watching for updates on the proposed sale of the Construction Division.

Any progress on asset sales and restructuring will likely remain a key driver of sentiment this year.

Fletcher shares are outperforming the wider market in what has been a weak session for the ASX.

The post Fletcher Building shares lift as ASX 200 slides. Here's why appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Fletcher Building report?

• Revenue from continuing operations: $2,866 million, largely steady on the prior period
• EBIT before Significant Items: $145 million (5.1% margin, matching last year)
• Net profit after tax from continuing operations: $45 million (up from a $88 million loss last year)
• Net loss after tax including discontinued operations: $11 million
• Net cash from operating activities: $156 million (up from $87 million)
• Net debt: $1,164 million, below internal targets
• No interim dividend declared

What else do investors need to know?

Fletcher Building is in the midst of shrinking and reshaping its business, including a major step: the $315.6 million sale of its Construction division, expected to complete in the first quarter of FY27. This is a significant milestone in shifting the company's focus to building product manufacturing and distribution.

Ongoing portfolio simplification, tight cost control, and better operational execution kept results steady, despite subdued market conditions across New Zealand and Australia. The business also maintained around $800 million in available liquidity, supporting its financial flexibility through choppy times.

The half-year brought additional provisions and legal costs for legacy construction and Australian plumbing matters, but disciplined capital management led to lower net debt and improved working capital performance.

What did Fletcher Building management say?

Managing Director and CEO Andrew Reding commented:

The first half of FY26 was another demanding period for the building industry, with subdued markets across New Zealand and Australia. Conditions differed between a particularly weak first quarter and a more stable second quarter. In that environment, our core manufacturing businesses held up well, supported by disciplined cost control and better operational execution. Just as importantly, we continued to make real progress on our strategy around simplifying the Group, strengthening the balance sheet, and embedding a decentralised operating model that improves accountability and performance.

What's next for Fletcher Building?

Looking ahead, Fletcher expects market conditions in New Zealand to remain soft through the rest of FY26, with no strong recovery likely before calendar 2027. Australia is seeing early signs of market stabilisation, but conditions remain patchy.

The company believes actions already taken—especially around cost, portfolio simplification, and capital discipline—should support better performance as markets recover. There's no interim dividend for this half, with payout plans on hold until debt reduction targets are reached. The focus for now remains on completing asset sales, progressing strategy, and managing volatility.

Fletcher Building share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Fletcher Building shares have risen 4%, slightly trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 6% over the same period.

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The post Fletcher Building shares steady on half-year results and construction exit appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Fletcher Building report?

• Sale of Construction Division for $315.6 million, with additional contingent consideration of up to $18.5 million
• Transaction includes Higgins, Brian Perry Civil, and Fletcher Construction Major Projects
• Approximately 2,300 employees to transfer to VINCI Construction
• Fletcher Building to retain legacy project responsibilities and set aside provisions of $55 million to $65 million for future claims
• Completion subject to regulatory approvals, with expected finish before end of calendar 2026

What else do investors need to know?

The transaction marks a strategic shift for Fletcher Building, narrowing its focus to its core building products manufacturing and distribution businesses. The move is designed to simplify its portfolio, lower debt, and aim for better returns to shareholders.

Fletcher Building will continue to handle responsibilities tied to legacy construction projects, notably the New Zealand International Convention Centre, and operations in the South Pacific, which are part of a separate review. Provisions for future claims highlight ongoing obligations related to past contracts.

What did Fletcher Building management say?

Managing Director and CEO Andrew Reding said:

Over the past year we have been clear that Fletcher Building's future lies in being a focused building products manufacturer and distributor, supported by a strong balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation. The sale of Fletcher Construction is a significant step forward in delivering that strategy, while continuing the work underway to simplify the portfolio, lower debt and improve shareholder returns.

What's next for Fletcher Building?

Fletcher Building expects the sale to be completed before the end of calendar 2026, after receiving regulatory and other key approvals. The company will look to redeploy proceeds into its core operations and further strengthen its financial position.

The board's ongoing review of South Pacific operations and continued management of historic legal and project responsibilities will also be in focus. Investors can watch for updates as Fletcher Building executes its simplified strategy in the coming year.

Fletcher Building share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Fletcher Building shares have risen 24%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 6% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Fletcher Building sells Construction Division to VINCI for $315.6 million appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Fletcher Building report?

• Light Building Products volumes mostly flat or higher than Q1 and prior corresponding period (pcp); Waipapa up 4.0% on Q1 and 23.4% on pcp
• Iplex NZ volumes rose 3.7% versus Q1 and 15.1% on pcp
• Heavy Building Materials volumes contracted: Winstone Aggregates down 2.7% on Q1 and 8.4% lower on pcp
• Distribution's PlaceMakers Frame & Truss volumes 3.1% up on Q1 and 4.8% higher than pcp, but margins under pressure
• Residential division took 135 units to profit, down 24.1% compared to Q2 FY25

What else do investors need to know?

Fletcher Building noted some encouraging signs, with Light Building Products showing improvement and margins remaining generally stable across that division. However, margin compression continued to challenge the Group, particularly in Distribution and Steel businesses, as trading conditions stayed highly competitive.

Heavy Building Materials divisions, such as Winstone Aggregates and Humes, delivered further volume declines due to weak demand in roading and larger projects, offset slightly by more stable volumes in Firth and Golden Bay. In Australia, sales trends were generally positive within Light Building Products.

What did Fletcher Building management say?

Andrew Reding, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, commented:

Quarterly volumes showed modest improvement compared with Q1 FY26, with some encouraging signs emerging across the portfolio. That said, these gains are yet to be sustained and, on their own, are not enough to offset the impact of the earlier declines.

What's next for Fletcher Building?

Fletcher Building remains cautious about the near-term outlook, flagging continued margin pressures from competitive conditions and only partial recovery in sales volumes so far. Management expects that any significant recovery in demand will take time, with the company not counting on a meaningful volume recovery until calendar year 2027.

The Group plans to continue navigating tough market settings by maintaining discipline on cost and margin management, while looking for opportunities to benefit from broader economic improvements as they emerge.

Fletcher Building share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Fletcher Building shares have risen 29%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 7% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Fletcher Building Q2 volume update: Key results and outlook appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The latest index decline is partly due to the Reserve Bank's decision to keep interest rates on hold for another month. In fact it even hinted that further rate cuts are unlikely, even implied at the possibility of a rate increase in early 2026. And it didn't sit well with investors.

But during times like this, it's more important than ever to take note of the strong stock performers and the ones to stay clear of. Here are three ASX 200 shares I'm avoiding this week.

Fletcher Building Ltd (ASX: FBU)

Fletcher Building's shares ended 0.94% higher at the close of the ASX on Thursday, at $3.22 a piece. Over the past month the New Zealand-based building and materials company's shares have risen 5.92% meaning they're now trading 25.29% higher than in January.

The dual-listed New Zealand-based building and materials company's shares also closed 1.68% higher on the NZE on Thursday, at NZ$3.64 per share. 

The company recently reported ongoing declines in trading volumes for the first quarter of FY26 and expects challenging conditions to continue for the remainder of the period. It's enough for me to steer clear.

Analysts at Macquarie have an underperform rating on the stock and a NZ$1.59 target price. Using Fletcher Building's NZ$3.64 share price at the time of writing, this implies a massive 56.3% downside ahead.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

CBA shares closed 0.7% lower again on Thursday afternoon, at $152.74. This means the ASX 200 company's shares have now fallen 20.2% from its all-time high in June, and are now 3.03% lower than this time last year.

I still think the bank stock's premium share price is far too expensive right now, and could correct even further. The majority of analysts have a sell rating on the banking giant's stock, with a target price as low as $96.07 each. 

This implies a potential 37.1% downside over the next 12 months, based on the share price at the time of writing. The team at Medallion Financial Group urges investors to be cautious about buying the stock.

National Australia Bank Limited (ASX: NAB)

NAB is another bank stock which I think is set to drop over the next 12 months, and I'm staying clear of.

At the close of the ASX on Thursday the ASX 200 shares closed 1.03% higher. Although over the month the shares dropped 3.09%. For the year-to-date, the NAB share price is 11.12% higher.

The bank missed consensus expectations of flat earnings in the second half of FY25 and I'm concerned that this is a sign of things to come in FY26.

The team at Morgans have a sell rating and $31.46 target price on the stock. However some analysts are even more bearish, expecting NAB shares to drop as low as $28.79 a piece. At the time of writing this implies a downside of 30.43% over the next 12 months.

The post 3 ASX 200 shares I'm avoiding this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

We have a diversified mix of companies on our top performers list this week.

One is a major bank, another provides building materials, the third is a coal miner, and the fourth is a fast-growing copper and gold producer.

Here's what's been happening this week.

ASX 200 stocks racing higher this week

The first outperforming company this week is Judo Capital Holdings Limited (ASX: JDO).

Shares in the ASX 200 bank stock closed last Friday trading for $1.60. At the time of writing, shares are changing hands for $1.71 each. This sees the Judo share price up 7% for the week.

With no fresh price-sensitive news out from the bank, investors may believe the stock could benefit amid increasing expectations that the RBA may raise interest rates in early 2026. High rates should help improve the bank's net interest margin (NIM).

The second ASX 200 stock smashing the benchmark's returns this week is Fletcher Building Ltd (ASX: FBU).

Shares in the New Zealand-based building and materials company closed last week at $2.93 and are currently trading at $3.14 apiece. This puts the Fletcher Building share price up 7.2% for the week.

This morning, the company announced additional steps it is taking to simplify its funding structure. Those steps include repaying all outstanding US Private Placement notes as well as securing new debt facilities.

"These steps represent another milestone in strengthening our financial foundations," Fletcher Building CEO Andrew Reding said.

"Simplifying our funding structure and extending key facilities gives us greater flexibility, lowers our ongoing cost of capital, and supports the disciplined execution of our strategic reset," Reding added.

Moving on to the third ASX 200 stock racing ahead of the benchmark this week, we find Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC).

Shares in the Aussie coal miner closed last Friday trading for $6.93. In afternoon trade today, shares are changing hands for $7.65 each. This sees the Whitehaven share price up 10.5% over the week.

There are no new price-sensitive announcements out from Whitehaven this week. But investors may be buying the ASX coal stock amid the company's ongoing share buyback program and with an eye on potential rising coal prices as we enter the northern winter months.

Leading the charge

Edging out Whitehaven to lead the charge higher this week is Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP).

Shares in the Australian gold and copper producer closed last week trading at $7.55 and are currently trading at $8.40 each. That sees this ASX 200 stock up 11% for the week.

The company owns a number of quality mines in Western Australia, where it is also developing its Havieron gold and copper project.

The miner discovered Havieron in 2018 and retook 100% ownership of the project 12 months ago.

Greatland Resources shares closed up 10.2% on Monday after the company released the feasibility study for the project.

Commenting on the study, Greatland managing director Shaun Day said:

Today, we are delighted to deliver our Feasibility Study which confirms Havieron's world-class quality and sets the pathway for its development into a long-life, low cost, leading Australian gold-copper mine that will integrate efficiently with the existing infrastructure at Telfer.

The results of the study are robust, generating an IRR [internal rate of return] of 22.5% at a long term $4,500 per ounce gold price. At a long term price equal to the current spot gold price, this rises to 31.5% IRR.

The post 4 ASX 200 stocks smashing the benchmark this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Fletcher Building report?

• Prepaid all outstanding US Private Placement (USPP) notes on 10 November 2025, simplifying its funding mix
• Terminated associated cross-currency swaps and made a make-whole payment, totalling $7.2 million in cash costs
• Established a new two-year $200 million club facility on 10 September 2025
• Extended Tranche C ($325 million) of its Syndicated Facility Agreement by four years
• Extended Senior Interest Cover covenant at 2.25x to 31 December 2026; dividend restrictions remain in place until covenant lifted

What else do investors need to know?

Fletcher Building has deferred its next material debt maturity until FY28, giving it more breathing room to manage market uncertainty and operational priorities. The group continues to restrict dividend payments until it meets its standard covenant requirements, prioritising a conservative approach to capital management.

Banking partners have affirmed their ongoing support as the company works through its strategic reset, with covenant levels carefully managed to provide added balance sheet resilience while debt remains above guidance.

What did Fletcher Building management say?

Andrew Reding, Managing Director and CEO said:

These steps represent another milestone in strengthening our financial foundations. Simplifying our funding structure and extending key facilities gives us greater flexibility, lowers our ongoing cost of capital, and supports the disciplined execution of our strategic reset. We remain committed to reducing leverage and ensuring the business is well positioned to navigate current market conditions and return to sustainable, long-term performance.

What's next for Fletcher Building?

Looking ahead, Fletcher Building's focus remains on reducing leverage and maintaining investment-grade credit metrics. Management aims to further simplify funding arrangements and prioritise balance sheet flexibility, supporting the company as it navigates tough market conditions.

The board believes these funding and covenant changes will help safeguard operations and place Fletcher Building on a more resilient footing for a return to long-term, sustainable growth. Investors can expect capital management discipline to remain central to company strategy until balance sheet targets are comfortably met.

Fletcher Building share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Fletcher Building shares have risen 18%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 2% over the same period.

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The post Fletcher Building updates funding: repays USPP, extends bank facilities appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The dual-listed New Zealand-based building and materials company's shares are also 0.29% lower on the NZE this morning, at NZ$3.45 per share. 

The company reported ongoing declines in trading volumes for the first quarter of FY26 and expects challenging conditions to continue for the remainder of the period. While the results were weak, Fletcher Building said it has launched a new cost-out and efficiency programme, targeting around NZ$100 million in annualised savings.

But the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has an underperform rating on this ASX 200 stock. And they expect there could be a significant share price fall in the near future. 

Heavy downside ahead for Fletcher Building

In a note to investors this morning, Macquarie confirmed its underperform rating on Fletcher Building shares. However, the broker raised the company's target price to NZ$1.73, up from NZ$1.59 previously.

Despite the increase, using the NZ$3.45 share price at the time of writing, that still implies potential for a huge 49.9% downside over the next 12 months.

"We raise our TP by 9% to $1.73, from $1.59, on lower RfR rollforward (4.3% or -20bps)… Maintain Underperform given predominantly negative catalysts. Prior FBU research," the broker said in its note.

Strong headwinds in the pipeline for the ASX 200 stock

Macquarie analysts pointed out in the note that NZ residential consents have strengthened over the past three months, up 11% compared to the prior period. 

"This runs against our view that house consenting levels are running ~30% above sustainable levels," the broker said.

Macquarie also said that moves by local governments to shift local road and water infrastructure costs back to residential land developers (away from rate payers and taxpayer-funded transfers) may be pulling forward consenting activity. 

"In Auckland, development contributions lifted 88% from $24k to $45/k per consented house on avge in greenfield areas. This additional impost falls on resource consents (and related BCs) lodged after 1-Jul-2025. We note that according to the gov't (INZ), Auckland developers have historically paid two-thirds of new infrastructure via DCs."

The broker doesn't think this pull-forward of activity will be confined to Auckland either, given the new 2026 legislation will be NZ-wide from 2027.

"Moreover, legislation to cap council rate increases and council shifts to reflect the government's National Policy Statement on increased intensification (e.g., ACC's PC120) reinforce the objective of moving more infra cost to developers, while at the same time encouraging earlier rather than later development," the broker said.

"Some may point to conventional monetary policy impact on demand, but with increasing unsold inventory levels (11-yr high noted by FBU) and low population growth, we do not share this view." 

The post This ASX 200 stock could plummet 50% next year appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

When the ASX 200 is falling, it's more important than ever to evaluate the stocks in your portfolio.

Here are three shares that it's time to sell up, according to the experts.

Fletcher Building Ltd (ASX: FBU)

The Fletcher Building share price closed 1.3% lower on Thursday, at $3.04 a piece. Over the past month the shares have risen 6.56% and over the year they're 5.56% higher. But it looks like investors could be in for a huge potential downside ahead.

The ASX 200 company recently reported ongoing declines in trading volumes for the first quarter of FY26 and expects challenging conditions to continue for the remainder of the period. And analysts aren't impressed.

Just last week, Macquarie placed an underperform rating on the stock and a NZ$1.59 target price. Using Fletcher Building's NZ$3.51 share price at the time of writing, this implies a huge 54.7% downside ahead. It looks like it's time to sell up.

Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ)

Bank of Queensland shares also closed in the red on Thursday, down 1.18% at $6.68 a piece. Over the month the shares have dropped 7.09% and over the year just 0.75% higher.

Bank valuations are stretched right now, and there is continued downside risk to margins and earnings. Analysts at Macquarie recently said that in the near term, it sees upside risk to consensus earnings from faster credit growth and benign credit quality.

The broker has an underperform rating and $5.90 target price on Bank of Queensland shares. At the time of writing that represents a potential 11.7% downside ahead over the next 12 months.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

The CBA share price closed 1.14% higher on Thursday at $160.19 a piece. Over the past month the ASX 200 bank's shares have dropped 3.03% but over the year they're still 7.09% higher. But it looks like the tide could soon be turning for the banking giant.

Analysts weren't very impressed with the bank's latest quarterly update, and the consensus is that the stock is well overpriced and due a correction.

Analysts at Morgans have a sell rating on CBA shares and a $96.07 target price. At the time of writing that implies an enormous 40% downside for investors over the next 12 months.

The post Warning! Analysts think it's time to sell these 3 ASX 200 shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

While the index shows signs of improving stability, there are some stocks on the index that I'm staying clear of this week. Here are the 5 stocks on my radar.

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

The Evolution Mining share price has climbed 1.38% to $11.42 at the time of writing. Since August the shares have jumped just over 62%, and over the year they're a huge 143.19% higher. 

The miner has been benefitting from a surging gold price and strong financial performance. In October, the company released its update for the three months to September 2025, which revealed cord net mine cash flow of $366 million. Evolution Mining's share price gains and financial performance are impressive, but I'm concerned that stock has now run its course.

Analysts are also concerned that the ASX 200 gold stock's shares are now beyond a fair valuation. TradingView data shows that out of 19 analysts, 8 have a sell or strong sell rating, 7 have a hold rating and the remaining 4 have a buy or strong buy rating. The average target price is $10.37 which implies a potential 9.19% downside at the time of writing.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) 

The CBA share price is 1.28% at the time of writing on Wednesday, at $161.31 a piece. The banking giant's shares have fallen 2.31% over the past month and are 7.41% higher than this time last year.

The latest dip follows the bank's quarterly update, posted yesterday. And I think it could be the start of the stock's highly anticipated tumble.

Analysts have a consensus sell rating on CBA shares. TradingView data shows that some expect a downside as high as 40.33% ahead at the time of writing. I'm steering clear for now.

Origin Energy Limited (ASX: ORG)

Origin shares are trading in the green in early-afternoon trade on Wednesday. At the time of writing the shares are 0.16% higher at $12.25 a piece. Over the past month the shares are 1.32% higher and over the year they're up 22.33%.

The ASX 200 energy giant has been a strong performer recently due to some M&A speculation and its strong first quarter results. But now it looks like demand for the ASX 200 energy provider is cooling. 

Analyst sentiment has shifted too. Macquarie recently confirmed its neutral rating on Origin Energy shares and raised its target price to $11.80. That implies a potential 3.7% downside ahead at the time of writing. 

Coles Group Limited (ASX: COL)

Coles shares are 0.78% higher at $22.48 at the time of writing. Over the past month they've sunk 4.59% but over the year the share price is 26.62% higher. It looks like Coles is positioning itself as the stronger market player amid an ongoing supermarket war with rival Woolworths, but I'm concerned that its share price has reached its peak.

Analyst sentiment is also shifting. Alto Capital's Tony Locantro recently said he has a sell recommendation on the stock. He sees headwinds building for Coles shares following on its strong run. 

Michael Gable from Fairmont Equities also recently said his team "can't identify sufficient catalysts to justify the share price".

Fletcher Building Limited (ASX: FBU)

The Fletcher Building share price is 0.82% higher at the time of writing at $3.06. Over the past month the shares have risen 7.54% and over the year they're 5.86% higher. But it looks like we could be in for a huge potential downside ahead.

The company recently reported ongoing declines in trading volumes for the first quarter of FY26 and expects challenging conditions to continue for the remainder of the period. 

Just last week, analysts at Macquarie placed an underperform rating on the stock and a NZ$1.59 target price. Using Fletcher Building's NZ$3.54 share price at the time of writing, this implies a huge 55.1% downside ahead.

The post 5 ASX 200 stocks I'm avoiding this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Fletcher Building is a dual-listed New Zealand building and materials company with operations in Australia. 

Its share price has been volatile this year, and at the time of writing is up 2.7% over the last 12 months. 

Today, it is trading for $2.86 on the ASX and $3.26 on the NZX. 

However the team at Macquarie has an underperform rating on this ASX 200 stock – indicating there could be a share price fall in the near future. 

Heavy downside anticipated

It's important to note that Fletcher Building's primary reporting currency is NZD.

When issuing target prices, analysts usually use the company's base currency for consistency with its financial reporting, earnings, and valuation models.

The team at Macquarie have a 12-month target in NZD of $1.59. 

At the time of writing, its share price on the New Zealand Stock Exchange is $3.26. 

Based on this price target, the team at Macquarie anticipate a drop of 51.23%. 

ASX 200 stock to suffer from building rate

Macquarie believes one of the main catalysts for this negative outlook is the New Zealand residential building rate. 

The broker noted it is unsustainably high due to capacity constraints and weak population growth. Early October data points to a slowdown, prompting earnings adjustments by Macquarie.

We think the sustainable res. build-rate in NZ is ~27k pa vs current consenting rate of 34k (to Aug; build-rate based on CCC/ICP data at 32k). Low population growth (0.7% pa ex students) and continued low deposit affordability (eg greater people per household) are key factors here.

FY26-28E EPS -2%, -4% and -3% rep on lowerNZ margin base and lower medium term Res division sales.

Macquarie forecasts FBU's FY26 EBIT approximately 7% below the market average and 20% below for FY27. 

This is due to unsustainably high residential building rate, weak population growth, low affordability, and record unsold housing. 

The broker also believes the company faced a tough Q1 with low demand, pricing pressure, and weak speculative builder activity. 

The post Macquarie says this ASX 200 stock could fall more than 50% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall

The Australian share market looks set to fall on Wednesday despite a relatively positive night of trade on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 45 points or 0.5% lower this morning. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is up 0.55% and the S&P 500 is up 0.1%, but the Nasdaq is down 0.1%.

Oil prices rise

ASX 200 energy shares including Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a decent session after oil prices pushed higher overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 0.6% to US$57.86 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 0.6% to US$61.38 a barrel. Traders appear to believe that oil prices have been oversold.

AGMs taking place

A number of annual general meetings will be taking place today and trading updates could be provided before them. Among the ASX 200 shares holding events today are APA Group (ASX: APA), Fletcher Building Ltd (ASX: FBU), National Storage REIT (ASX: NSR), and Reliance Worldwide Corporation Ltd (ASX: RWC).

Gold price crashes

It looks set to be a bad session for ASX 200 gold shares including Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) on Wednesday after the gold price crashed overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 5.6% to US$4,116.3 an ounce. This appears to have been driven by profit taking after gold's record rally.

Buy Hub24 shares

Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB) shares can keep rising according to analysts at Bell Potter. On Tuesday, the investment platform provider's shares jumped 10% following the release of a strong first quarter update. In response, Bell Potter has retained its buy rating on its shares with an improved price target of $135.00 (from $125.00). It said: "The current environment feels like FY22 when HUB traded around 37x blended forward EBITDA and market inflows are increasing from record levels. To that end we also think there is underappreciation of the expanded growth runway, with an appetite to allocate more advised clients and capital on platform. Investors have continued to re-rate HUB when exceeding expectations and we see emerging upside risk to FY27 guidance. Buy."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Fletcher Building report?

• Light Building Products volumes mostly lower than last year, but Comfortech (+3.8% pcp) and Iplex NZ (+14.1% pcp) showed growth
• Heavy Building Materials saw further contraction, with Winstone Aggregates down 6.3% from the prior corresponding period
• Distribution (PlaceMakers Frame & Truss) volumes were steady, but margins tightened in competitive conditions
• The Residential division delivered 88 units to profit, a slight fall from 90 a year ago
• Margins across divisions remain under pressure, but cost control and production efficiencies provided some support

What else do investors need to know?

Fletcher Building has launched a new cost-out and efficiency programme, targeting around NZ$100 million in annualised savings. The company expects about NZ$50 million of these benefits to flow through during the second half of FY26, with the full run-rate to be achieved in FY27. These savings focus mainly on back-office improvements, aiming to protect front-line operations.

Despite subdued trading, management is staying disciplined on cash preservation and maintaining a strong balance sheet. The company notes that market conditions are especially tough in New Zealand, with 11-year high residential inventories and continued softness in key sectors. However, recent interest rate cuts may help steady conditions in the housing market.

What did Fletcher Building management say?

Andrew Reding, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, said:

The quarterly volumes show that there were further declines in trading volumes and ongoing pressure on margins amid subdued market conditions during the first quarter. The principal drivers for the softer performance were continued weak demand across key markets and heightened competitive activity, particularly in the New Zealand market.

What's next for Fletcher Building?

Looking ahead, Fletcher Building expects market conditions to remain challenging through the rest of FY26, with ongoing uncertainty in the timing of a residential recovery. Management is committed to cash preservation and cost control, working to position the company for stronger performance when market demand improves. Recent OCR reductions could help the New Zealand housing market regain momentum, while there are early signs of stabilisation in Australia.

Fletcher Building share price snapshot

Fletcher Building shares have increased 3% for the year to date, underperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 9% over the same period. 

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The post Fletcher Building share price: Q1 FY26 volumes slide, cost savings flagged appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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