The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) closed 0.15% higher on Thursday afternoon. Over the past month the index has fallen 2.57%, although it's still 4.77% higher for the year-to-date.
The latest index decline is partly due to the Reserve Bank's decision to keep interest rates on hold for another month. In fact it even hinted that further rate cuts are unlikely, even implied at the possibility of a rate increase in early 2026. And it didn't sit well with investors.
But during times like this, it's more important than ever to take note of the strong stock performers and the ones to stay clear of. Here are three ASX 200 shares I'm avoiding this week.
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Fletcher Building Ltd (ASX: FBU)
Fletcher Building's shares ended 0.94% higher at the close of the ASX on Thursday, at $3.22 a piece. Over the past month the New Zealand-based building and materials company's shares have risen 5.92% meaning they're now trading 25.29% higher than in January.
The dual-listed New Zealand-based building and materials company's shares also closed 1.68% higher on the NZE on Thursday, at NZ$3.64 per share.
The company recently reported ongoing declines in trading volumes for the first quarter of FY26 and expects challenging conditions to continue for the remainder of the period. It's enough for me to steer clear.
Analysts at Macquarie have an underperform rating on the stock and a NZ$1.59 target price. Using Fletcher Building's NZ$3.64 share price at the time of writing, this implies a massive 56.3% downside ahead.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)
CBA shares closed 0.7% lower again on Thursday afternoon, at $152.74. This means the ASX 200 company's shares have now fallen 20.2% from its all-time high in June, and are now 3.03% lower than this time last year.
I still think the bank stock's premium share price is far too expensive right now, and could correct even further. The majority of analysts have a sell rating on the banking giant's stock, with a target price as low as $96.07 each.
This implies a potential 37.1% downside over the next 12 months, based on the share price at the time of writing. The team at Medallion Financial Group urges investors to be cautious about buying the stock.
National Australia Bank Limited (ASX: NAB)
NAB is another bank stock which I think is set to drop over the next 12 months, and I'm staying clear of.
At the close of the ASX on Thursday the ASX 200 shares closed 1.03% higher. Although over the month the shares dropped 3.09%. For the year-to-date, the NAB share price is 11.12% higher.
The bank missed consensus expectations of flat earnings in the second half of FY25 and I'm concerned that this is a sign of things to come in FY26.
The team at Morgans have a sell rating and $31.46 target price on the stock. However some analysts are even more bearish, expecting NAB shares to drop as low as $28.79 a piece. At the time of writing this implies a downside of 30.43% over the next 12 months.
