Will the market be able to bounce back on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to jump

The Australian share market looks set for a strong start to the week following a good finish on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 82 points or 0.85% higher. In the United States, the Dow Jones was up 1.8%, the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.5%.

Oil prices crash

It could be a poor start to the week for ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices crashed on Friday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was down 11.45% to US$83.85 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was down 9.1% to US$90.38 a barrel. This was driven by news that the Strait of Hormuz is open again. However, conflicting news over the weekend could mean oil prices reverse these declines when Asian markets open.

TechnologyOne shares downgrade

TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE) shares are fairly valued according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has downgraded the enterprise software provider's shares to a hold rating with an improved price target of $31.00 (from $29.00). It said: "We downgrade our recommendation on Technology One from BUY to HOLD given the rally in the share price to above our target price. We believe the stock now looks fairly valued on FY26 and FY27 EV/EBITDA multiples of c.32x and 28x which [we] note are the highest in our coverage of S&P/ASX 100 technology stocks and well above that of WiseTech Global on c.22x and 18x."

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a good start to the week after the gold price stormed higher on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was up 1.5% to US$4,879.6 an ounce. This was also driven by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. It is possible this gain could also reverse in Asian trade today.

Netwealth given accumulate rating

In response to its quarterly update, Morgans has put an accumulate rating on Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) shares with a $29.00 price target. It said: "Despite ongoing volatility and uncertainty tied to a US/Middle East conflict and a potential resolution, market momentum has recovered from peak pessimism in the March Quarter, with the ASX All Ordinaries +5.6% month-to-date in April'26, which will have seen FUA growth momentum improve post quarter end. Looking through this near-term volatility NWL remains on track deliver solid growth FY26F and well placed to capitalised on the long runway of opportunity ahead. We retain our ACCUMULATE rating, with a Price target of $29.00/sh."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The move comes as the market digests new information from one of its key assets.

At the time of writing, the Newmont share price is down 0.28% to $156.61. That follows a weaker stretch over the past week, with the stock now down almost 7% over that period.

The pullback sits against a solid 12-month run. Over the past year, the shares are still up close to 80%.

With the stock sitting near recent highs, even smaller updates are getting more attention.

And that appears to be the case today.

Cadia operations update draws focus

According to the release, Newmont provided an update on its Cadia operation in New South Wales following a magnitude 4.5 earthquake earlier this week.

The company said all personnel were accounted for, with safety protocols activated immediately after the event. Underground workers were moved to designated safe areas and later returned to the surface under standard procedures.

Initial inspections identified some damage in certain underground sections, though it has been described as limited in scale.

Processing operations have continued and are being ramped back up to normal throughput levels.

Production impact expected to be limited

Newmont also confirmed that surface infrastructure, including tailings facilities and dams, was inspected following the earthquake.

No damage has been identified across those critical assets at this stage.

Based on current assessments, near-term production from Cadia is not expected to be materially impacted.

Work is still ongoing underground to determine the full recovery timeline and whether there could be any longer-term effects on output.

Cadia is a key asset, so any disruption will draw attention, especially when early signs point to a minor operational impact.

Recent weakness comes after strong run

After a strong rally through the past year, the stock was trading near recent highs before easing back this week.

Moves like this are common after a large run, especially when new information adds some uncertainty, even if the impact is limited.

Gold price movements have also played a part, with prices holding near recent highs after a steady rise in recent months.

Foolish Takeaway

The update points to limited damage and no clear hit to near-term production, which takes some pressure off.

Even so, the stock has already had a decent run, and short-term moves can turn quickly when sentiment shifts.

Personally, I would be comfortable watching this one rather than chasing it here, especially with the current volatility.

The post Newmont shares slip as Cadia update puts investors on alert appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall

The Australian share market looks set to edge slightly lower on Friday despite a decent night in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 12 points or 0.15% lower this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.25%, the S&P 500 rose 0.25% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.35%.

Oil prices rise

It could be a good finish to the week for ASX 200 energy shares such as Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices rose overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 2.1% to US$93.19 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 1.7% to US$89.65 a barrel. This was driven by concerns over Iran-US peace talks and the Strait of Hormuz.

Zip results

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) shares will be on watch today when the buy now pay later provider releases its eagerly anticipated third-quarter update. According to a note out of Citi, its analysts are expecting Zip to announce an improved US net transaction margin despite rising bad debts as a percentage of total transaction value.

Gold price edges lower

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a subdued finish to the week after the gold price edged lower overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 0.25% to US$4,810.9 an ounce. Inflation and rate hike fears continue to weigh on the precious metal.

Buy Netwealth shares

Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) shares could be good value according to Bell Potter. In response to the investment platform provider's quarterly update, the broker has retained its buy rating and $30.00 price target on its shares. It said: "Following the update, we have downgraded our EPS estimates -1% contained within FY27 and driven by steadier average FUA balances and take-rates. Our Buy rating is unchanged. NWL has de-rated to trade on 28x forward EBITDA consistent with prior risk off environments and compares to 33x through-the-cycle. We would expect the earnings catalysts and sentiment exposure to drive enhanced shareholder returns."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are dropping:

29Metals Ltd (ASX: 29M)

The 29Metals share price is down 32% to 25.2 cents. Investors have been selling this copper producer's shares following the release of an update on its progress to reestablish mining at the Xantho Extended orebody at the Golden Grove operation in Western Australia. It advised that based on a new assessment, additional works to further reduce the risk of future potential production interruptions will be needed prior to recommencement of mining. And while there is no change to its copper production guidance for FY 2026, it has downgraded its guidance for zinc, gold, and silver materially.

DGL Group Ltd (ASX: DGL)

The DGL Group share price is down 25% to 40 cents. This has been driven by the release of the chemicals logistics and services supplier's half-year update. DGL Group reported a 5.8% decline in sales revenue to $225 million, a 5% decline in underlying EBITDA to $24.7 million, and a statutory loss after tax of $12.8 million. It notes that its revenue was impacted by ongoing scarcity in used lead acid batteries due to illegal exports.

Fletcher Building Ltd (ASX: FBU)

The Fletcher Building share price is down 1% to $2.44. This morning, the building products company released a quarterly sales update and revealed improvements in volumes. Fletcher Building's CEO, Andrew Reding, said: "Quarterly volumes for the March quarter continued to show early signs of improvement across the portfolio, with the important caveat that this quarter largely preceded the current geopolitical escalation." One negative was the company warning that the "overall impact of the Middle East crisis on the Group's financial performance, including for the FY26 year, cannot be ascertained with certainty at this time."

Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM)

The Newmont share price is down 5% to $156.82. This is despite there being no news out of the gold miner today. However, it is worth noting that most ASX gold stocks are under pressure today. This has led to S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold index falling 2.15% this afternoon.

The post Why 29Metals, DGL, Fletcher Building, and Newmont shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 set to open flat

The Australian share market looks set for a subdued session on Thursday despite a relatively good night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day flat this morning. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is down 0.25%, the S&P 500 is up 0.6% and the Nasdaq is 1.2% higher.

Buy Evolution Mining shares

Bell Potter thinks investors should be buying Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating on the gold miner's shares with a trimmed price target of $16.45. It said: "EVN offers effectively unhedged gold and copper exposure via a portfolio of high quality, long-life assets in Tier 1 jurisdictions, overseen by a high-quality management team. EVN has stated its intention to pass growing free cash flows on to shareholders."

Oil prices mixed

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a subdued session on Thursday after oil prices traded mixed. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 0.1% to US$91.30 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.1% to US$88.12 a barrel. Traders appear to be waiting to see what happens with US-Iran peace talks.

Nufarm shares rated as a buy

Nufarm Ltd (ASX: NUF) shares could continue to rise after surging 11% on Wednesday. That's the view of analysts at Bell Potter, who have put a buy rating and $3.60 price target on the agricultural chemicals company's shares. It said: "NUF has provided a trading update, highlighting +16-19% YoY growth in 1H26 uEBITDA and a deleveraging of the balance sheet slightly ahead of expectations."

Gold price softens

ASX 200 gold shares including Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a soft session on Thursday after the gold price dropped overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 0.65% to US$4,817.9 an ounce. Traders continue to wait for news from the US-Iran peace talks before making any major moves.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to rise again

The Australian share market looks set to rise again on Wednesday following a strong night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 47 points or 0.5% higher. In the United States, the Dow Jones rose 0.65%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.2%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.95%.

Oil prices sink

ASX 200 energy shares such as Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a poor session after oil prices sank overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 6.95% to US$92.20 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 4.4% to US$88.85 a barrel. The catalyst for this was optimism that a US-Iran peace deal could be on the way.

Telix shares on watch

Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX) shares will be on watch on Wednesday after the radiopharmaceuticals company announced a US$550 million convertible notes offering. The company's managing director and CEO, Dr. Christian Behrenbruch, said: "The refinance of the existing Convertible Bonds represents our proactive approach to capital management. The new Convertible Bonds will continue to provide the business with cost effective financing." Telix notes that the new convertible bonds represent attractive, low-cost financing and are non-dilutive until any potential future conversions occur. The initial conversion price will be at a premium to Telix's current share price.

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a good session on Wednesday after the gold price stormed higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 2% to US$4,864.5 an ounce. This was driven by confirmation that a second round of US-Iran peace talks are taking place.

Mineral Resources shares downgraded

Morgans has downgraded Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares this week. According to the note, the broker has reduced its rating to accumulate (from buy) and cut its price target to $67.00 (from $68.00). It said: "We have updated our 2H26 forecasts to reflect weather impacts in 3Q26, which we expect to have a modest effect on Onslow iron ore shipments, alongside minor increases to cost and capex assumptions driven by inflation in shipping and fuel."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to jump

The Australian share market looks set for a strong start to the week despite a mixed finish on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 70 points or 0.75% higher. In the United States, the Dow Jones was down 0.55%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.35%.

Oil prices ease

It could be a subdued start to the week for ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices eased on Friday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was down 1.23% to US$96.57 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was down 0.75% to US$112.57 a barrel. This may have been driven by optimism over peace talks between the US and Iran.

Dividends being paid

A couple more ASX 200 shares will be rewarding their shareholders with dividend payments on Monday. This includes hearing solutions company Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH) and auto listings giant CAR Group Limited (ASX: CAR). They will be paying partially franked dividends of $2.15 per share and 42.5 cents per share, respectively, later today.

Gold price slides

ASX 200 gold shares including Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a soft start to the week after the gold price fell on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was down 0.65% to US$4,787.4 an ounce. This may also have been driven by news of peace talks between the US and Iran.

Hold Orora shares

Morgans isn't a buyer of Orora Ltd (ASX: ORA) shares despite their heavy decline last week. The broker has retained its hold rating with a heavily reduced price target of $1.55 (from $2.30). It prefers fellow packaging company Amcor (ASX: AMC) and has a buy rating and $76.00 price target on its shares. It said: "Given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East, visibility on the timing of a potential restart at the RAK facility remains limited. In addition, global consumer confidence and spirits demand have already been negatively affected by the conflict and may remain subdued for some time, even in the event of a near-term resolution. Given this uncertainty, we believe it is prudent to await further updates before reassessing our view. Within the Packaging sector, our preference remains Amcor (AMC, BUY, $76.00 TP)."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to edge lower

The Australian share market looks set to edge lower on Friday despite a decent night in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 5 points lower this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.6%, the S&P 500 rose 0.6% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.8%.

Oil prices rebound

It could be a good finish to the week for ASX 200 energy shares such as Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices rebounded overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 4.65% to US$98.80 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 2% to US$96.68 a barrel. This was driven by concerns over the US-Iran ceasefire sticking.

Buy Life360 shares

Life360 Inc (ASX: 360) shares could be undervalued according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $35.50. It said: "There is, therefore, some risk around the Q1 result – scheduled to be released on 12th May – and the potential of a downgrade or softening of the global MAU growth target though, on the flip side, reiteration of the guidance could be taken positively as it would show confidence in the outlook."

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a decent finish to the week after the gold price rose slightly overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.2% to US$4,785.9 an ounce. Ceasefire concerns and the release of US inflation data were behind the rise.

Buy Northern Star shares

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares could be cheap according to Bell Potter. Ahead of the release of its quarterly update and following the announcement of a share buyback, the broker has retained its buy rating and $35.00 price target. It said: "The buy-back has minimal impact on our EPS estimates going forward, however the signalling of value in the underlying business is of more importance. As noted above, we see NST as hitting the bottom of production and earnings downgrades, with some margin compression to come from the impact of fuel prices."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The yellow metal ended February trading for US$5,279 an ounce, according to data from Bloomberg. By the time the smoke cleared on 31 March, that same ounce was trading for US$4,668, down 11.2%.

As you'd expect, this put some serious pressure on ASX gold stocks, which had counted among the top performers on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) over the year to March.

Indeed, while the ASX 200 slumped 7.8% in March, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) declined a painful 23.9%.

As for some of the leading ASX 200 gold stocks, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares fell 32.8% in March; Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares dropped 14.5%; and Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) dropped 23.9%.

Here's what put the gold price, and ASX gold stocks, under selling pressure.

Easy liquidity outweighs haven status

Noting that March was the weakest month for the gold price since June 2013, the World Gold Council (WGC) said, "Gold lost value in all major currencies, but remains up on the year."

The big sell-off followed the outbreak of the Iran war at the end of February.

While that kind of geopolitical turmoil should favour haven assets like gold, the yellow metal also is often among the first assets investors will sell when they need access to funds amid broader stock market declines.

"The 12% fall in price over the month is attributed to deleveraging and liquidity dynamics that favoured sellers, not fundamentals, which remain supportive," the WGC noted.

According to the WGC:

Gold's sell‑off during the first three weeks of March was sharp, counter‑intuitive, but not unprecedented. It occurred against a backdrop normally supportive for gold: elevated geopolitical tensions and renewed inflation concerns. The episode is a reminder that gold is not a contractual hedge.

The gold price, and ASX gold stocks like Northern Star and Newmont, also faced headwinds in March with the Iran war sending energy prices soaring the world over. This could fuel inflation and potentially increase interest rates. Gold, which pays no yield itself, tends to perform better in a low or falling rate environment.

What now for the gold price?

Looking ahead, the WGC said that some early signs of stabilisation are emerging.

Among the positive signs for a rebound in the gold price, the WGC noted that early April exchange traded fund (ETF) flows into gold have been positive across regions.

As for the Iran war's impact on interest rates in critical economies like the US, the WGC said:

Policy tightening is likely to be rhetorical (in the US) and expectations of hikes could get unwound quickly. Any energy driven CPI impulse is likely to result in demand destruction, limiting pass through to core inflation and reinforcing the case for an eventual dovish pivot.

But there are certainly risks that the gold price could face further pressure.

According to the WGC:

Should the conflict keep oil prices well in excess of US$100/bbl for an extended period – given that the somewhat muted response was reportedly due to buffers that no longer exist – this could risk further cross‑asset deleveraging, yield blow-outs, or gold mobilisation by the official sector.

Stay tuned!

The post March was the worst month for the gold price since June 2013. Now what? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 set to fall

The Australian share market looks set to fall on Thursday despite a good night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 24 points or 0.25% lower this morning. In the United States, the Dow Jones rose 2.85%, the S&P 500 jumped 2.5% and the Nasdaq stormed 2.8% higher.

CSL shares given hold rating

Bell Potter still thinks it is too early to buy CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares. This morning, the broker has retained its hold rating on the biotherapeutics giant's shares with a $155.00 price target (from $175.00). It said: "The current share price reflects a materially de-rated PE multiple of ~15x our FY27 NPAT forecast, bringing CSL in line with the global biopharma peer set which also trades at an avg PE of 15x. While CSL doesn't face the same extent of generic/biosimilar competition as these biopharma peers, it does have a lower growth outlook of ~2.5% revenue CAGR (3yr) per our forecast compared to >4% avg for global peers."

Oil prices sink

ASX 200 energy shares including Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a subdued session on Thursday after oil prices crashed overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 14.6% to US$96.42 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 12% to US$96.19 a barrel. This has been driven by the signing of a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran.

Dividend payday

Today is payday for shareholders of a number of ASX 200 shares. This includes CSL, Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM), Qube Holdings Ltd (ASX: QUB), Brambles Ltd (ASX: BXB), SGH Ltd (ASX: SGH), Atlas Arteria Group (ASX: ALX), and NRW Holdings Limited (ASX: NWH). CSL will be rewarding its shareholders with a $1.81 per share dividend later today.

Gold price lifts

ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a good session on Thursday after the gold price pushed higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 1.3% to US$4,748.1 an ounce. Traders appear to believe that falling oil prices could limit interest rate hikes, which would be good news for the precious metal.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to rise

The Australian share market looks set to rise again on Wednesday following a mixed night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 18 points or 0.2% higher. In the United States, the Dow Jones dropped 0.2%, but the S&P 500 rose 0.1% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.1%.

Buy Telix shares

The team at Bell Potter thinks investors should be buying Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX) shares following its first-quarter sales update. In response to the update, the broker has retained its buy rating and $19.00 price target on Telix's shares. It said: "The company continues to make good progress on multiple pipeline products. Short term news flow includes acceptance by the FDA of the resubmitted NDA for Pixclara and the amendment to the IND for TLX591 (prostate cancer Tx). We maintain our Buy rating. FY26 EBITDA is increased by ~US$21m to US$55.3m."

Oil prices fall

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a subdued session after oil prices pulled back overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 1.7% to US$110.41 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 3.8% to US$105.27 a barrel. This was driven by optimism that a US-Iran peace deal could be on the way.

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares including Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a good session on Wednesday after the gold price pushed higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 1.1% to US$4,734.4 an ounce. Traders have been buying gold in response to Donald Trump's comments on Iran.

Dividend payday

A number of ASX 200 shares will be rewarding their shareholders with their latest dividends on Wednesday. This includes financial technology company Iress Ltd (ASX: IRE), gold miners Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) and Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU), media giant News Corporation (ASX: NWS), and private health insurer NIB Holdings Limited (ASX: NHF). The latter is paying a fully franked 13 cents per share interim dividend today.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are rising today despite the market decline are listed below. Here's why they are pushing higher:

Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP)

The Greatland Resources share price is up 5% to $13.66. This appears to have been driven by a broker note out of Citi this morning. According to the note, in response to positive drilling results, the broker has upgraded the gold miner's shares to a buy rating (from neutral) with an improved price target of $16.00 (from $15.30). This implies potential upside of 17% for investors even after today's strong gain.

Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM)

The Newmont share price is up 3.5% to $164.14. This has been driven by a decent rise in the gold price overnight after the US dollar softened. It isn't just Newmont shares that are rising on Thursday. Most ASX gold stocks are rising today, which has led to the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold index outperforming with a 1.3% gain at the time of writing.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

The Northern Star share price is up over 2% to $22.60. This morning, this gold miner released a production update and announced an on-market share buyback. Northern Star revealed that preliminary gold sales for the March quarter totalled 381,000 ounces. It also advised that it is not currently experiencing any supply issues with diesel fuel. However, it concedes that this remains a focus for the business and a key risk for the broader mining industry in Australia. With respect to the share buyback, the company plans to buy back up to $500 million of its shares as part of a proactive capital management strategy. Northern Star's managing director, Stuart Tonkin, said: "Today's announcement reflects our confidence in the strength of our business, the structural uplift in cash generation expected from the commissioning of the KCGM Mill Expansion and the compelling value we see in our share price."

Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN)

The Qantas Airways share price is up over 1% to $8.76. This appears to have been driven by optimism that the war in the Middle East could soon come to an end and oil prices could be heading lower. Fuel costs are a major expense for Qantas, so higher oil prices can impact profitability.

The post Why Greatland Resources, Newmont, Northern Star, and Qantas shares are rising today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

A new report from VanEck suggests that this could be an opportunity for investors to buy the dip. 

Gold is currently trading around US$4,600 per ounce, down approximately 22% from its all-time high of US$5,595 in late January.

While the drawdown is significant, in our view it is presenting a compelling entry point for investors looking to add gold exposure.

What's causing the dip?

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck addressed the recent pullback, highlighting that several forces have hit gold simultaneously. 

He outlined that these drivers appear cyclical and technical rather than structural. 

Firstly, gold had been trading well above its long-term averages, making a short-term correction unsurprising. 

VanEck reinforced this move below the 200-day moving average aligns with normal pullbacks often seen during longer-term bull markets, rather than indicating a lasting bearish shift.

Additionally, ongoing tensions involving the US and Iran, along with pressure on energy-related revenues, may have led some sovereign investors to sell gold holdings to raise immediate cash. 

This appears to reflect temporary funding stress rather than any fundamental decline in long-term interest in gold.

Why gold shares could be set for a rebound

Despite recent volatility, VanEck said the structural drivers of gold remain firmly in place and in some cases are strengthening.

While the immediate impact of the conflict has pressured gold, history shows that oil shock events ultimately drive higher inflation and macro uncertainty, conditions under which gold has historically performed strongly.

VanEck said during previous oil-shock conflicts, particularly the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the 1991 Gulf War, gold demand surged over the medium term as investors priced in higher inflation and persistent macro uncertainty.

The current conflict has disrupted roughly 20% of global seaborne oil supply, the largest such disruption in modern history.

Looking through the volatility, we think the current environment continues to support gold's role as a strategic portfolio allocation and reinforces the case for adding exposure at current levels.

How to invest in gold shares

The ASX is home to many gold mining and production shares. 

Two of the largest ASX listed gold shares include: 

• Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM)
• Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

There are also ASX ETFs that provide exposure to gold shares through a basket of miners, or tracking the spot price of gold: 

• Vaneck Gold Bullion ETF (ASX: NUGG)
• VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (ASX: GDX)
• Global X Physical Gold (ASX: GOLD)

The post Should you buy the dip on gold shares? Expert appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 set to rise

The Australian share market looks set for another rise on Thursday following a good night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 13 points or 0.15% higher this morning. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is up 0.6%, the S&P 500 is up 0.9% and the Nasdaq is 1.25% higher.

Buy Harvey Norman shares

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN) shares could be undervalued according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating on the retail giant's shares with a reduced price target of $6.70. Based on its current share price of $4.87, this implies potential upside of 38%. It said: "Following the sharp sell-off in the name since Oct-25, HVN's 1-year forward P/E of ~13x (as per BPe) appears attractive considering the new store driven growth in international retailing (UK, Malaysia, Croatia), refit program in Australia and opportunities to grow their real estate portfolio as Australia's single largest owner in large format retail with a global portfolio of ~$4.6b."

Oil prices fall

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a subdued session on Thursday after oil prices dropped overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 1.6% to US$99.73 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 2.8% to US$101.03 a barrel. This has been driven by optimism that a US-Iran peace deal is near.

Graincorp shares are fully valued

The team at Bell Potter has also been looking at Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) shares. However, it thinks the grain exporter's shares are fully valued at current levels and has retained its hold rating and $6.80 price target. It said: "As the focus shifts to the upcoming crop, soil moisture profiles are in general the opposite of a year ago, being improved in the south and drier in the north. At this stage, the increasing shift in outlook towards an El Nino bias in 2HCY26 warrants consideration against potential yield outcomes."

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a good session on Thursday after the gold price pushed higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 2.4% to US$4,658.4 an ounce. A softer US dollar gave the precious metal a lift.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to jump

The Australian share market looks set for a strong session on Wednesday following a very positive night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 119 points or 1.4% higher. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is up 2.3%, the S&P 500 is up 2.75% and the Nasdaq is 3.7% higher.

Buy Catapult shares

Bell Potter sees a lot of value in Catapult Sports Ltd (ASX: CAT) shares at current levels. This morning, the broker has reaffirmed its buy rating and $4.75 price target on the sports technology company's shares. It said: "The other key take-out from investor day is that the medium-term targets remain on track and the outlook remains positive. The key target is ACV of US$200m+ in "2-3 years" which in theory will be achieved by reaching 5k pro teams (vs c.4k now) and ACV per pro team of c.US$40k (vs c.US$30k now)."

Oil prices mixed

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) will be on watch on Wednesday after a mixed night for oil prices. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 0.85% to US$102.02 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 4.9% to US$118.31 a barrel. While there is optimism that the Iran war could soon end, there is no guarantee that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a good session on Wednesday after the gold price stormed higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 3.4% to US$4,680.7 an ounce. This was driven by optimism that the Iran war could be nearing an end.

AGL update

AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL) shares will be on watch today after the energy giant released an update on the Kwinana Gas Power Generation 2 (K2) Project. It is a 220 MW open-cycle, dual-fuel gas turbine power station to be co-located with the existing Kwinana Swift facility in Western Australia. AGL has reached a final investment decision to proceed with the project. AGL's CEO, Damien Nicks, said: "It marks another important milestone in AGL's strategy to develop new firming capacity to support the build out of renewables, and further expands the breadth and capacity of the company's flexible asset portfolio."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP)

While 2026 so far has been a series of bad news events for the AMP share price, it looks like the stock could shift course and begin soaring again over the next 12 months.

This week, AMP confirmed it will undertake an on-market buyback of up to $150 million of ordinary shares and Blair Vernon has officially stepped into the CEO role. Sentiment could well follow suit.

Analysts have a strong buy rating on AMP shares and tip a potential 33% upside to $1.75 per share, at the time of writing.

Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC)

Capstone shares have crashed 40% over the past six weeks driven by rising operating costs and production disruptions. But I think rising copper prices could renew some investor confidence in the ASX copper company's shares.

Capstone has confirmed 2026 production guidance of 200,000 to 230,000 tonnes of copper at C1 cash costs of US$2.45 to US$2.75 per pound. It also expects largely stable production in 2026, with growth anticipated from Mantoverde Optimised from 2027.

Analysts tip the shares to jump 45% higher to $15.10 a piece, at the time of writing.

EVT Ltd (ASX: EVT)

EVT is an Australian provider of entertainment, hospitality, tourism, and leisure-related services in Australia, New Zealand, and Germany. The company announced it has completed $750 million in refinancing this week. 

The refinancing, together with EVT's non-core asset divestment program, is expected to give the business more financial flexibility and aid a business shift towards the hotel and accommodation sector.

Analysts tip a potential 20% upside to $15.90 a piece, at the time of writing.

Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD)

The ASX gold stock's shares have tumbled nearly 27% over the past month after concerns about rising inflation and more interest rate hikes overshadowed gold's traditional safe-haven status.

The metal's price has tumbled from an all-time high on the 1st of March. But Genesis Minerals' has managed to maintain a strong revenue and earnings performance driven by increased production. I think as soon as gold comes back into favor, this ASX share will fly higher.

Analysts tip a potential 60% share price upside to $9.41, at the time of writing.

Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM)

Newmont is another ASX gold share which was oversold in March.

Declining gold prices have weighed heavily on the world's largest gold miner, with its share price down 19% over the course of the month. I think the stock could rebound sharply as the gold price recovers.

Analysts tip a potential 26% upside to $192.20 a piece, over the next 12 months. 

The post 5 ASX shares I'd buy with $10,000 this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Gold shares have been on a multi-year tear due to a rapidly rising gold price creating exceptional earnings growth for ASX miners.

The gold price increased 65% in 2025, its greatest annual rise in more than four decades, and that came on top of a 27% gain in 2024.

The S&P/ASX All Ords Gold Index (ASX: XGD) rose 125% in 2025 and 16% in 2024, delivering investors some thrilling returns.

And then came the first real test for this magnificent period of growth.

How did 2026 begin?

The start of 2026 was amazing for ASX gold shares.

The gold price went crazy, rising 30% in less than a month on new year optimism and excitement.

The gold price soared from just over US$4,300 per ounce on 31 December to a record US$5,608 per ounce on 29 January.

ASX gold shares ascended strongly, rising 17.7% over these first few weeks of 2026.

Then came the steepest one-day fall for the gold price in more than a decade.

Gold plummeted 21% over just a few days to US$4,400 per ounce by 2 February.

The sell-off was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next US Fed chair.

Warsh is known for his hawkish stance on interest rates, and investors worried he may not cut rates as fast as the market was hoping.

Higher-for-longer interest rates are a headwind for the gold price, given that gold is a non-yielding asset.

The Warsh nomination led to a fall in the gold price, followed by panic selling as investors sought to lock in their incredible gains.

ASX gold shares followed suit. The S&P/ASX All Ords Gold Index (ASX: XGD) fell 12.4% between 29 January and 2 February.

Despite the late-month sell-off, ASX gold shares managed an 11% net gain over the month of January.

ASX gold shares recover, then crash even harder

The gold price rebounded in February, rising to about US$5,300 per ounce by month's end.

ASX gold shares also rose by 4.7%.

Then came the war.

On 28 February (US time), Israel and the US attacked Iran, claiming they did so to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons capabilities.

That saw the gold price tank, and ASX gold shares went with it.

Trading Economics analysts say the gold price has experienced its worst monthly fall in March since October 2008, down about 13%.

ASX gold shares have followed the trend, diving 23.7% this month.

The analysts said:

The precious metal faced sustained pressure this month from an oil-driven inflation shock that pushed investors and policymakers toward a more hawkish stance on interest rates.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said long-term US inflation expectations appeared to remain anchored despite heightened uncertainties tied to the conflict.

He added that the central bank's policy stance is well positioned to allow officials to assess the economic impact of the Iran war.

1Q CY26 performance

The ASX All Ords Gold Index finished the first quarter down 10.1%.

Let's take a look at some specific ASX gold shares and their performance over the March quarter.

The market's largest ASX gold share, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) fell 16.7% over the quarter to close at $20.36 today.

The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price edged 0.5% lower over the quarter to $12.62 today.

Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) shares managed a 0.3% gain over 1Q CY26 to $151.55 today.

The Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP) share price rose 7.4% over the quarter to $11.34 on Tuesday.

Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) shares declined 13.2% to close out the March quarter at $3.67.

Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU) shares weakened 8.7% over the quarter to finish at $5.15 today.

Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) shares decreased 19.3% over the quarter to $5.89 today.

Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX) shares fell 8.7% over the quarter to $5.89 today.

The Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) share price lost 12.8% to finish the March quarter at $6.65.

The post ASX gold shares tumble as bull run faces its first big test in 1Q CY26 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Spot gold is currently trading at US$4,575 an ounce, up about 1.3% on the day, after recovering from what has still been its worst monthly decline since 2008.

The yellow metal remains down 14% over the past month, highlighting how sharp the pullback has been despite today's recovery.

The gains are flowing directly into our local gold sector.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are up 4.56% to $20.40, Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) is climbing 3.21% to $152.99, and Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) is higher by 2.24% to $12.80.

The move follows overnight gains in global gold miners as bullion rebounded on renewed expectations that US interest rate cuts could still arrive later this year.

Gold's rebound gives miners some breathing room

The latest lift in gold appears to be driven by a combination of softer oil prices, easing US dollar strength, and confidence that inflation expectations remain contained.

According to The Australian, the rebound followed renewed market optimism after comments from US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell suggested longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored.

Stable inflation expectations can revive hopes for lower interest rates, which supports gold prices by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Even so, the broader backdrop remains volatile.

Gold is still on track to finish March down about 13%, which would mark its weakest monthly performance in nearly 18 years.

Despite today's rebound, the move still looks more like a recovery from an oversold pullback than the start of a sustained recovery.

Why Northern Star is leading the local gains

Northern Star is leading the gains among the major ASX gold stocks, which reflects its stronger leverage to moves in the Australian dollar gold price.

The company remains one of the ASX's largest pure-play gold producers, with major assets including the Kalgoorlie Super Pit, Jundee, Thunderbox, and Pogo operations.

After a difficult month that has left Northern Star shares down more than 32%, today's rise suggests investors are returning as bullion stabilises.

Newmont and Evolution are also benefiting from the same macro support, though their gains are slightly smaller after both stocks have held up better over the past 12 months.

Bullion remains the main driver for ASX gold stocks

The near-term direction of ASX gold miners is likely to remain closely tied to moves in bullion.

If gold can build on today's rebound and regain momentum above the US$4,600 level, local producers could continue recovering from March's sharp sell-off.

Nonetheless, after such a volatile month, investor attention will likely stay on US rate expectations, oil prices, and geopolitical risks heading into April.

The post Why Northern Star, Newmont, and Evolution shares are rising today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall again

The Australian share market looks set for a tough start to the week following declines on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 65 points or 0.75% lower. In the United States, the Dow Jones was down 1.7%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.7%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 2.15%.

Oil prices jump

It could be a good start to the week for ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices jumped on Friday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was up 5.45% to US$99.64 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was up 4.2% to US$112.57 a barrel. This was driven by an escalation in the Middle East conflict just when the market was hoping for a peace deal.

AMP announces buyback

The AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) share price will be on watch after the financial services company announced an on-market share buyback. AMP revealed that it will buy back up to $150 million of ordinary shares. AMP's chief executive, Alexis George, said: "We remain committed to returning surplus capital to shareholders in the absence of a compelling alternative, and prioritising organic growth in our wealth businesses. Today's announcement demonstrates this, with an on-market share buyback the most efficient use of capital at this time."

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares including Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a good start to the week after the gold price rose on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was up 2.6% to US$4,524.3 an ounce. Traders appear to believe that the precious metal was oversold.

Buy Catapult shares

Bell Potter is feeling bullish on Catapult Sports Ltd (ASX: CAT) shares at current levels. In response to its trading update, the broker has retained its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $4.75 (from $4.85). Based on its current share price, this implies potential upside of almost 40% for investors. It said: "We choose not to make any change to our FY27 or FY28 forecasts at this stage – despite the stronger than expected year end ACV in FY26 – given, firstly, the lack of any other details regarding the FY26 result and, secondly, the strategy session next week which may provide further details. […]  Catapult remains our preferred mid cap exposure in the tech sector."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

ASX mining shares have been the worst hit by the war in Iran, with the materials sector losing 15.3% of its value since the conflict began.

Some investors took profits this month after a strong run for ASX 200 mining shares, amid fears that higher diesel prices and potential shortages could hurt earnings and production for 2H FY26.

ASX 200 mining shares have also declined alongside metals prices, with gold down 17%, silver down 22%, lithium carbonate down 8%, and copper down 7% over the month. Iron ore has demonstrated resilience, rising 7% over the period to US$106 per tonne on Friday.

With the US and Iran still negotiating a 15-point plan for peace, it is hoped this war and the ensuing global oil shock will be over soon.

This may have motivated some investors to take up new or enhanced positions in ASX 200 mining shares last week, given the bright long-term outlook for the sector and the opportunity to buy the dip.

Reflecting the miners' fightback last week, the S&P/ASX 300 Metal & Mining Index (ASX: XMM) rose 4.4% while the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gained 1% to finish at 8,516.3 points.

Seven of the 11 market sectors finished in the green last week.

Let's recap.

ASX 200 mining shares fight back

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price increased 6.1% to close at $50.37 on Friday.

BHP shares reached a record $59.39 on 3 March before the war prompted investors to take profits.

Despite last week's rebound, the ASX 200's largest mining stock remains 13.8% lower over 30 days.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares lifted 4.3% to $153.23 last week, while Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) gained 6.5% to $20.19.

The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price soared 9.7% to $56.69.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) shares increased 1.3% to $4.03 per share.

ASX 200 copper share Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) lifted 1.8% to $15.88, while Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC) edged 0.6% lower to $10.14.

ASX 200 lithium shares had a ripsnorter of a week, with PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) rocketing 21.8% to close at $5.15 on Friday.

The Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price soared 20.9% to $1.77, and Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) gained 11.9% to 24 cents.

Nickel and lithium producer IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) lifted 16.5% to $7.93 per share.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) shares closed the week 2.7% higher at $10.08 apiece.

Bauxite and alumina producer Alcoa Corporation CDI (ASX: AAI) lifted 3.5% to $85.95 per share.

What about ASX gold shares?

The market's largest ASX 200 gold share, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) rose 0.3% to close at $18.55 on Friday.

The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price lifted 0.4% to $12.46, and Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) rose 3.1% to $146.85.

Among the mid-caps, Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) shares lifted 2.1% to $3.96, and Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) rose 1.1% to $6.26.

Gold and copper miner, Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP) fell 3.5% to $9.76.

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

The post ASX 200 mining shares rebound after March sell-off creates opportunities appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.