Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to jump

It looks set to be a day to remember for Aussie investors on Thursday following a strong night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 179 points or 2% higher this morning. In the United States, the Dow Jones rose 3.05%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.6%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.45%.

NAB results

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares will be on watch today when the big four bank releases its FY 2026 results. The consensus estimate is for NAB to report a cash profit of $6.3 billion for the 12 months. Earnings per share are expected to be in the region of $2.38 to $2.46, supporting total dividends of $1.70 per share for FY 2026.

Oil prices crash

ASX 200 energy shares Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a tough session after oil prices crashed overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 7.8% to US$88.60 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 8.1% to US$95.18 a barrel. Traders appear to believe the US mid-term election results could encourage peace talks between the US and Iran.

REA update

REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA) shares will be in focus today. That's because the property listings company will be releasing its first-quarter update before the market open. The team at Citi is expecting REA Group to report revenue of $440 million (excluding India). This would be an increase of 8% on a continuing basis. EBITDA is forecast to also be up 8% to $284 million for the three months.

Gold price jumps

It could be a good session for ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) on Thursday after the gold price jumped overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 3.4% to US$4,074.2 an ounce. Investors were bidding the precious metal higher after the US dollar weakened following the US mid-term elections.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Up until recently, gold beat both the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) and the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) on most short and medium-term timeframes.

Unprecedented demand from central banks around the world, lower interest rates, geopolitical conflict, and a weaker US dollar, sent the gold price to an all-time high of US$5,379 per ounce in January.

Despite retreating from this level, gold remains ahead of both the S&P 500 and ASX 200 over the past 5 years. Since November 2021, the precious metal has risen more than 125%. This still handily beats the S&P 500's 61% gain and the ASX 200's 20% gain. 

However, gold has now fallen firmly behind these indices on a one year basis.

Last week, gold plummeted to US$3,885.70 a troy ounce. This was its lowest level since 3 October 2025. It's now down around 30% since its peak.

The cause? Persistently high energy prices and inflation, which strengthened expectations of another US interest rate hike. 

Higher interest rates have driven bond yields higher. In early October, the US 10-year bond yield surged to a 24-year high of 5.36%, pulling back below the 5% threshold. 

In Australia, the 10-year bond hit 5.4%, and currently sits at around 5.2%.

Higher interest rates (and bond yields) spell bad news for gold investors. Since gold pays no interest, it becomes a far less attractive investment.

Last week, artificial intelligence spending concerns also triggered a sharp sell-off in equities, giving investors another excuse to sell stocks and buy bonds.

Gold miners crater

In last Friday's overnight trade, major US gold miners Barrick Mining Corporation and Newmont Corporation suffered a beating in response, falling 4.3% and 4.6% respectively. 

This morning, the ASX followed suit with the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) opening approximately 2% lower.

Major ASX miners Northern Star Ltd (ASX: NST), Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM), which is dual-listed, and Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) fell even further.

Newmont was the hardest hit, falling 3.5%, while Northern Star and Evolution Mining, are down 3% at the time of writing. 

So, has gold lost its shine, or is this sell-off a golden opportunity?

Gold's appeal remains strong

Many of the characteristics that drive investors to buy gold remain strong.

Gold has long been viewed as a safe haven. It has physical scarcity, along with a long-dated history of preserving purchasing power during challenging economic times. 

With wars in Ukraine and Iran continuing on, gold's safe haven appeal remains stronger than ever.

According to the World Gold Council, central banks also remained net buyers of gold in August. Recently, China, Uzbekistan, and Poland were among the largest institutional buyers. 

In the coming days, we will find out whether China remains a net buyer of gold.

Last week, investors were also reminded of the relative safety of hard commodities over digital assets after crypto platform Binance was hacked. While Binance has since announced that it will cover around 90% of the US$6.3 billion stolen, crypto investors may be re-evaluating their crypto holdings and weighing the merits of switching to gold. 

No doubt, many investors this week will be questioning where gold is headed next. Specifically, whether there is more pain to come or whether today's price presents opportunity.

However, an equally important question is how to hold it. 

Is it better to buy physical gold (either directly or through ASX gold ETFs) or to invest in ASX-listed gold miners?

Gold vs gold miners?

The last few years have produced many ASX gold miner multi-baggers, all of which have run well ahead of the gold price.

This includes ASX 200 stock PDI Gold Ltd (ASX: PDI), which is up 300% in 5 years, as well as smaller miners including Solstice Minerals Ltd (ASX: SLS), which has risen more than 800%.

However, for the average ASX investor out there, the odds of making a fortune on gold miners are slim. 

Last year, the Australian Financial Review, tracked the journey of 172 gold mining stocks that were listed on the ASX a decade ago. 

Out of 172, just 100 were still around.

Those who vanished were either taken over or ran out of money. 

Among those that remain, the average annual return was a dismal 3%.

Evidently, the gap between the most successful and the biggest failures is wide. 

When ASX gold miners do well, investors win big. 

Between 2015 and 2025, Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM), Bellevue Gold (ASX: BGL), Beacon Minerals Ltd (ASX: BCN), and Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) all delivered at least a 47% average annual return. 

By most investors' standards, that's an astonishingly successful run. A $10,000 investment compounded at 47% for 10 years turns into $471,000. So, picking one of these winners can be truly life-changing. 

However, at the other end of the scale, roughly 40% of the ASX gold miners studied by the Australian Financial Review that are still around today have posted negative returns. 

Physical gold, on the other hand, has delivered around a 10% average annual return since 2000. 

While this is roughly in line with the stock market, gold has low correlation with equities, providing additional defensive qualities. 

Passive income

History suggests that the average ASX investor could be better off investing in physical gold than gold miners. 

However, as previously mentioned, gold pays no income. 

With the 2026 Australian Investor Study revealing that 31% of investors listed 'building a sustainable income stream' as their top investor goal, this could be a deal breaker for some investors.  

Those falling into this category may wish to consider high-yield ASX gold miners, including Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: REG) and Evolution Mining, which both offer yields above 3.6%.

The post Gold plunges to a 1-year low, triggering global sell-off. Time to buy gold or miners? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Mining stocks have become Australia's proxy for the global artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

We don't have a big tech sector heavily involved in the AI build-out like the US market does.

But we have all the metals and minerals needed to build the world's data centres and power battery storage systems.

So, when US AI stocks get sold off, we see a sell-off in tech and copper and critical minerals miners.

That's what happened the week before last when ASX 200 tech stocks fell 5.11%, and materials dropped 7.69%.

Last week, US AI stocks recovered over a three-day run early in the week, and so did our mining and tech companies.

Meanwhile, the consumer discretionary and staples sectors took a hit.

Hotter-than-expected inflation data led the market to price in an 80% chance of a fifth interest rate hike for 2026 on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the benchmark ASX 200 rose 1.28% to finish at 8,908.1 points.

Seven of the 11 market sectors finished in the green last week.

Let's recap.

ASX 200 materials and mining shares led the market

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price jumped 4.56% to close at $57.56 on Friday.

The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price rose 4.08% to $44.09.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares lifted 0.71% to $147.31 last week.

The Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) share price finished steady at $14.27.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) shares increased 5.08% to $4.34.

ASX 200 copper pure-play Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) soared 9.16% to $20.14 per share.

Lithium shares struggled last week amid sluggish commodity prices.

The PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) share price edged 0.76% higher to $2.64.

The Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price fell 3.13% to 62 cents.

How about ASX gold shares?

The Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) share price ascended 4.59% to $25.27.

The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price rose 3.98% to $11.76.

Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) shares lifted 0.7% to $156.12.

The gold price has fallen 7% in 2026 and broke below US$4,000 per ounce on Friday.

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

The post ASX 200 mining shares rebounded while consumer stocks fell last week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Brokers have reduced their ratings on numerous ASX 200 shares this week.

Let's take a look.

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG)

The Fortescue share price is $14.51, down 0.6% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 mining share has tumbled 12%.

Bell Potter downgraded Fortescue shares to a sell rating this week.

The broker cut its 12-month price target from $15.80 to $13.15.

This implies a potential 9% downside ahead.

NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT)

The NextDC share price is $5.83, down 5.6% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 tech share has plummeted 46%.

Morgan Stanley downgraded NextDC shares to a hold rating this week.

The broker slashed its 12-month price target from $19 to $6.70.

This suggests a potential 15% upside ahead.

Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD)

The Elders share price is $6.38, up 2.7% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 consumer staples share has fallen 2%.

Citi has downgraded Elders shares to a hold call.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $6.60.

This indicates a potential 3% upside ahead.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC)

The Lynas Rare Earths share price is $12.25, down 6% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 rare earths share has fallen 11%.

Ord Minnett downgraded Lynas shares to a hold rating today.

The broker cut its 12-month price target from $14 to $13.50.

This suggests a potential 10% upside ahead.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)

The Woolworths share price is $40.15, up 1.7% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 consumer staples share has lifted 2.4%.

Morgans downgraded Woolworths shares from accumulate to hold on Wednesday.

The broker has a price target of $43.55.

This suggests potential capital growth of 9% over the next year. 

Morgans analyst Alexander Lu said:

WOW delivered a solid 1Q27 sales trading update.

In our view, while trading conditions remain challenging in NZ Food and BIG W, the core Australian Food business (~88% of group EBIT) continues to perform well, supported by improved execution and sustained sales growth ahead of the market.

While we expect this momentum to continue, WOW is now trading on 28x FY27F PE with a yield of 2.7%.

As a result, we see limited upside from current levels, with the valuation largely reflecting the growth outlook.

Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM)

The Newmont share price is $157.94, down 0.8% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 gold share has fallen 6%.

Morgans downgraded Newmont shares from buy to accumulate.

The broker's price target is $177.

This indicates a potential gain of 12% over the next year. 

The post 6 ASX 200 shares that lost favour with brokers this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rise

The Australian share market looks set for a decent session on Friday despite a poor night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 26 points or 0.3% higher this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was down 0.25%, the S&P 500 fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq sank 1.4%.

Oil prices ease

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) will be on watch today after a subdued night for oil prices. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 0.35% to US$102.42 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.15% to US$115.18 a barrel. Renewed US-Iran peace efforts were behind the decline.

Hold Woolworths shares

The team at Morgans thinks Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares are fully valued. In response to its first-quarter update, the broker has downgraded the supermarket operator's shares to a hold rating with a $43.55 price target. It said: "In our view, while trading conditions remain challenging in NZ Food and BIG W, the core Australian Food business (~88% of group EBIT) continues to perform well, supported by improved execution and sustained sales growth ahead of the market. While we expect this momentum to continue, WOW is now trading on 28x FY27F PE with a yield of 2.7%. As a result, we see limited upside from current levels, with the valuation largely reflecting the growth outlook. We downgrade our rating to HOLD from ACCUMULATE."

Gold price falls

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a soft finish to the week after the gold price dropped overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 0.5% to US$4,032.4 an ounce. This was driven by US inflation data, which has led to increased rate hike bets. 

Coles Q1 update

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares will be in focus on Friday when the supermarket giant releases its first-quarter sales update. According to a note out of UBS, its analysts are expecting Coles to report a 3% increase in total sales to $11.29 billion. This is expected to be driven by strong Food sales, which will be offset partially by weakness in the Liquor segment. UBS expects Liquor sales to fall 2.1% to $824 million.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rise

It looks set to be a good session for Australian investors following a solid night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 40 points or 0.45% higher this morning. In the United States, the Dow Jones rose 0.2%, the S&P 500 climbed 0.3%, and the Nasdaq jumped 0.3%.

Wesfarmers update

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) shares will be on watch on Thursday when the conglomerate releases a trading update ahead of its annual general meeting. Investors will be looking for signs that Bunnings and Kmart are continuing to perform well in FY 2027. Also holding events today and likely to release updates are Challenger Ltd (ASX: CGF), JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH), Perpetual Ltd (ASX: PPT), and Super Retail Group Ltd (ASX: SUL).

Oil prices rise

ASX 200 energy shares including Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) will be on watch today following a positive night for oil prices. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 1.8% to US$101.69 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 0.15% to US$114.03 a barrel. Traders were buying oil in response to reports that the US is planning strikes on Iran.

Buy Life360 shares

Life360 Inc. (ASX: 360) shares could be good value according to the team at Ord Minnett. The broker has resumed coverage on the location technology company's shares with a buy rating and $29.40 price target. Based on its current share price of $20.65, this implies potential upside of 42% for investors over the next 12 months. The broker is bullish on Life360's outlook, partly due to the potential growth of its advertising business.

Gold price rises

It could be a reasonably positive session for ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) on Thursday after the gold price edged higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.2% to US$4,083.5 an ounce. This follows the US Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates on hold.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Three brokers have issued new research notes on the company with bullish share price targets, which I'll get to shortly.

First, let's have a closer look at the quarterly production report.

Gold production is going to plan

Newmont said in a statement to the ASX that it remained on track to deliver its full-year production guidance and improved full-year cost outlook, supported by disciplined operational execution in the third quarter.

The company produced about 1.3 million ounces of gold during the quarter and generated US$1.9 billion in free cash flow.

The company is expecting to produce 5.3 million ounces of gold for the full year.

As well as its gold production for the quarter, Newmont produced 11 million ounces of silver and 23,000 tonnes of copper.

Newmont said it had bought back US$1.6 billion worth of shares since its last earnings call and had US$2.8 billion in remaining capacity under its current buyback plan.

The company ended the quarter with US$3.2 billion in net cash.

Newmont's average realised gold price for sales was US$4,317 per ounce, down $US97 per ounce on the previous quarter.

Analysts agree Newmont shares are looking cheap

UBS said in its note to clients that the third-quarter results were ahead of consensus, with no material negative surprises.

The broker added:

NEM reiterated FY26 production guidance and remains well positioned to meet/modestly exceed the midpoint while lowering FY26 unit cost guidance materially. Results have generally exceeded expectations over the past 12 months, although this has periodically been offset by guidance reductions.

UBS said it continued to consider Newmont's production assumptions as relatively conservative.

UBS has a price target of $210 on Newmont shares, compared with the current price of $156.31.

Morgans is less bullish, reducing its price target from $194 to $177.

This was due to an increase in its cost and capital expenditure assumptions.

But the ongoing buyback would lend strength to the share price, though, they said.

Morgans added:

Annualising the US$6bn buyback implies a ~5% capital return yield at current prices (about 6% including the dividend), which we see as a strong cushion for the share price. Ultimately, however, a re-rating requires a turnaround in the gold price, and the near-term backdrop is not supportive given the short-term interest rate outlook. For long-term investors we see current levels as an accumulation opportunity, but would remain cautious in the short term.

Macquarie, meanwhile, has a price target of $184 on Newmont and also calls out costs as an issue.

The post How high are Newmont shares tipped to go? 3 brokers weigh in appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Newmont report?

• Sales: US$6,363 million, up from US$5,524 million in Q3 2025
• Net income attributable to shareholders: US$2,475 million (Q3 2025: US$1,832 million)
• Adjusted EBITDA: US$3,951 million, up 19% year on year
• Adjusted EPS: US$2.20 per share (Q3 2025: US$1.71)
• Dividend: US$0.26 per share, declared for the quarter
• Free cash flow: US$7,261 million for the nine months to 30 September 2026

What else do investors need to know?

Newmont finished the quarter with US$8.8 billion in cash and total liquidity of US$12.8 billion, providing a strong financial cushion. The company also repurchased US$5.2 billion of stock during the first nine months, underlining its focus on returning capital to shareholders.

The quarter saw operational impacts from seismic activity at the Cadia mine, but production recovered in the third quarter. Portfolio-wise, Newmont struck a deal with Barrick Gold to contribute properties to the Nevada Gold Mines venture, with a US$1.95 billion cash payment expected in Q4.

In Ghana, changes to the stability agreement and royalty rates kicked in after 31 December 2025, resulting in higher operating costs, especially with gold price movements.

What did Newmont management say?

President and Chief Executive Officer Natascha Viljoen said:

Our strong result this quarter demonstrates Newmont's world-leading portfolio and disciplined capital allocation – delivering robust free cash flow and returning value to shareholders.

What's next for Newmont Corporation?

Looking ahead, Newmont expects to complete the contribution of new properties to Nevada Gold Mines in the fourth quarter, which should deliver a non-cash gain. The company continues to prioritise sustainability and project expansion, with major projects at Tanami in Australia, Cadia, and Red Chris among its near-term development focus.

Management flagged ongoing inflationary pressures and sees continued volatility in input costs and commodity prices, though the company's robust balance sheet and liquidity provide flexibility. Share buybacks and consistent dividends remain key parts of Newmont's capital management approach.

Newmont Corporation share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Newmont shares have risen 23%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has declined 2% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Newmont Corporation reports robust third-quarter result and higher profit appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall

The Australian share market looks set for a poor session on Friday following a relatively weak night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 27 points or 0.3% lower this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was flat but the S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq sank 2.6%.

Oil prices rise

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) will be on watch today after a strong night for oil prices. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 2.2% to US$99.31 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 3.9% to US$113.12 a barrel. This follows reports that Donald Trump could be planning further action on Iran.

Buy NextDC shares

Morgans thinks investors should be buying NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT) shares while they are down in the dumps. The broker has upgraded the data centre operator's shares to a buy rating with a $7.50 price target. It said: "In our view NXT is incredibly cheap and its ~30% discount to NTA is unwarranted if these issues are just short term in nature. However, management needs to de-risk these key concerns for equity investors. This could take some time. We set our Target Price at $7.50 which is broadly in line with NTA and below our valuation. We upgrade to a BUY recommendation, from HOLD. Noting the heightening risks relative to normal operating conditions for the business."

Gold price tumbles

ASX 200 gold shares including Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a poor finish to the week after the gold price tumbled overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 2.65% to US$4,040.1 an ounce. Traders were selling gold after the oil rally fuelled inflation worries.

AGMs

A number of annual general meetings are taking place today, which could see the release of trading updates. Among those holding meetings are plumbing parts company Reliance Worldwide Corporation (ASX: RWC), salary packaging company McMillan Shakespeare Ltd (ASX: MMS), and broadband provider Aussie Broadband Ltd (ASX: ABB).

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to edge lower

It looks set to be a subdued session for Australian investors despite a good night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 1 point lower this morning. In the United States, the Dow Jones rose 0.7%, the S&P 500 climbed 0.6%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.05%.

CSL appoints new CEO

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares will be on watch on Thursday after the biotech giant announced the appointment of its new CEO. Deborah Waterhouse will commence in the role from 1 February 2027. The company notes that the appointment was made following an extensive global search process. It highlights that Ms Waterhouse is a proven commercial leader with more than 25 years' experience managing complex global specialty pharmaceutical companies across the U.S., the UK, Europe, and Australia.

Oil prices mixed

ASX 200 energy shares Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) will be on watch following a mixed night for oil prices. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is flat at US$97.82 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 0.9% to US$109.74 a barrel. Traders appear undecided where next for oil prices following Middle East developments.

Accumulate BHP shares

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares could be good value according to analysts at Ord Minnett. In response to the mining giant's quarterly update, the broker has upgraded BHP shares to an accumulate rating (from hold) with a $63.00 price target. Based on its current share price of $58.54, this implies potential upside of approximately 8% for investors. Ord Minnett also expects a dividend yield of around 4.75%. 

Gold price rises

It could be a relatively positive session for ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) on Thursday after the gold price rose overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.25% to US$4,152 an ounce. This saw the gold price recover from a one-week low.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The market has been volatile this year amid the US-Iran war, persistent inflation, and now rising interest rates at home and in the US.

The market has weakened significantly since hitting a 52-week high in August.

Amid the weakness, brokers see opportunities to invest in some ASX 200 sector heavyweights.

Let's take a look.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

The BHP share price is $59.47, up 2.5% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 mining share has fallen 1%.

Morgan Stanley renewed its buy rating on BHP shares on Monday.

The broker raised its 12-month price target from $68 to $69.

This suggests a potential 16% upside ahead.

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS)

The Telstra share price is $4.74, down 1.2% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 telco share has fallen 3%.

Citi reaffirmed its buy rating on Telstra shares with a 12-month target of $5.25.

This suggests a potential 11% upside ahead.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

The CSL share price is $190.41, up 1.9% today.

This ASX 200 healthcare share has risen 9% over the past month.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its buy rating on CSL shares this week.

However, the broker has a 12-month target of $182, which implies a 4% downside from here.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

The Xero share price is $61.14, up 5.9% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 tech share has fallen 8%.

RBC Capital renewed its buy rating on Xero shares this week.

The broker upped its 12-month price target from $85 to $96.

This suggests a potential 57% upside ahead.

Santos Ltd (ASX: STO)

The Santos share price is $9.17, down 0.2% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 energy share has increased 5%.

UBS reaffirmed its buy rating on Santos shares on Tuesday.

The broker raised its 12-month target from $8.30 to $9.50.

This suggests a potential 3% upside ahead.

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS)

The PLS share price is $3.04, up 2.2% today.

This ASX 200 lithium share has tumbled 29% in just one month.

Jefferies renewed its buy rating on PLS shares on Monday.

The broker lowered its price target from $6.30 to $5.50.

This implies potential capital growth of 81% over the next year.

Stockland Corporation Ltd (ASX: SGP)

The Stockland share price is $4.21, down 0.8% today.

This ASX 200 property share has risen 2% over the past month.

Jarden reiterated its buy rating on Stockland shares on Wednesday.

The broker decreased its 12-month target from $5.69 to $5.

This still implies a potential 19% upside ahead.

Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG)

The IAG share price is $8.56, up 0.9% today.

This ASX 200 financial share has ascended 6% over the past month.

UBS reiterated its buy rating on IAG shares with a price target of $9.10.

This implies a potential rise of 6% ahead.

Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM)

The Newmont share price is $165.26, up 3.4% today.

This ASX 200 gold mining share has fallen 5% over the past month.

Jefferies renewed its buy rating on Newmont shares with a $224.12 target.

This implies potential capital growth of 35% over the next year.

The post 9 ASX 200 shares experts are backing for growth amid market weakness appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to jump

The Australian share market looks set for a great session on Friday following a strong night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 93 points or 1.05% higher this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 1.1%, the S&P 500 rose 0.35% and the Nasdaq edged 0.1% higher.

Oil prices mixed

ASX 200 energy shares including Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) will be on watch today after a mixed night for oil prices. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 2.65% to US$97.62 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.25% to US$105.81 a barrel. This follows reports that Iran is stepping up attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

Buy Netwealth shares

The Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) share price offers major upside potential according to Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating and $25.00 price target on the investment platform provider's shares. It commented: "We like the depressed valuation multiple, and strategic investments made, with early runs on the board. Trading on 28x earnings, the multiple stands at a 5-year low and has retraced back to its historical spread over the S&P/ASX 200."

Gold price jumps

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a good finish to the week after the gold price charged higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 2% to US$4,191.5 an ounce. Traders were buying gold in response to a weaker US dollar and Treasury yields.

Buy Evolution Mining shares

Bell Potter thinks Evolution Mining shares are undervalued at current levels. This morning, the broker has responded to the gold miner's quarterly update by retaining its buy rating with an improved price target of $15.85. It said: "EVN offers fully unhedged gold and copper exposure via a portfolio of high quality, long-life assets in Tier 1 jurisdictions, overseen by a high-quality management team. EVN has delivered on its promise to increase shareholder returns and gold price exposure. Our NPV-based valuation lifts 2%, to $15.85/sh. We retain our Buy recommendation."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall

It looks set to be a subdued session for Australian investors following a poor night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 18 points or 0.2% lower this morning. In the United States, the Dow Jones fell 0.1%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.1%, and the Nasdaq sank 1.9%.

Annual general meetings

A number of ASX 200 shares are holding their annual general meetings on Thursday and could provide trading updates. This includes 4×4 parts company ARB Corporation Ltd (ASX: ARB), mining giant South32 Ltd (ASX: S32), and wine leader Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE).

Oil prices rise

ASX 200 energy shares Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a good session following a positive night for oil prices. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 1.1% to US$95.15 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 0.4% to US$106.09 a barrel. This follows news of the sinking of a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz.

Buy Megaport shares

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1) shares could have major upside potential according to Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating on the cloud infrastructure provider's shares with a trimmed price target of $26.00. It said: "We continue to have a positive view on the stock due to valuation (FY28 EV/EBITDA of only 6x), strong forecast growth (which is fully funded), track record of execution, high visibility of earnings, AI exposure and differentiated business model (distributed inference)."

Gold price drops

It could be a tough session for ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) on Thursday after the gold price dropped overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 1.35% to US$4,120.8 an ounce. A hotter than expected US inflation reading has sparked rate hike fears.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In FY26, the ASX 200 materials sector, which is dominated by the miners, shot the lights out for investors.

The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) soared 47% and produced total returns, including dividends, of 52%. 

That compares to a 3% rise and total returns of 7% for the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

A staggering outperformance of 7:1.

The S&P/ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index (ASX: XMM), which includes an extra 100 mineral explorers, did even better.  

ASX 300 mining shares rose 53%, and delivered total returns of 59% in FY26.

These explosive returns followed staggering increases in many commodity prices.

Commodity price surge

In FY26, the best price growth among commodities relevant to Australian mining was lithium spodumene, soaring 278%.

Lithium is a key component in rechargeable batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), e-bikes, smartphones, and energy storage systems.

In CY25, silver experienced the best price growth, up 147%.

Silver is an industrial metal used in solar panels, EVs, tech devices, and data centres due to its superior conductivity to copper.

The long-term tailwinds of decarbonisation and the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out contributed to mining's outperformance in FY26.

The ongoing structural change in central banks purchasing gold to diversify their reserves away from US treasuries also played a role.

Experts say we're in a new mining boom that will be different to the 2000s because it will be led by critical minerals, not iron ore.

While these long-term tailwinds will remain for decades, that doesn't automatically translate to vertical commodity price growth.

This is made clear in the 5-year outlook for commodities just published by the Federal Department of Industry, Science, and Resources.

Commodity price predictions FY27

For the period FY26 to FY31, the government reckons FY27 is going to be the strongest year for many commodity prices.

According to the resources department's latest Resources and Energy Quarterly:

Commodity prices are expected to peak in 2026–27 and then drift lower.

This is important information for ASX investors because commodity prices directly impact miners' earnings, and thus, their share prices.

The report also looks at energy commodity prices.

In CY26, Brent crude oil, gas, and coal prices have surged due to the US-Iran conflict and Middle East supply disruptions.

This contributed to energy ranking second (behind materials) among the 11 ASX 200 market sectors for total returns in FY26.

The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) increased 9.37% and produced total returns of 14.51%.

The energy sector has the same forecasted commodity price trend.

For the period FY26 to FY31, the government expects four out of five energy commodity prices to peak in FY27.

This will have a direct impact on ASX energy shares.

Let's take a look at the forecasts.

Five-year outlook

The report outlines the Federal Government's predictions for average annual commodity prices in FY27 and FY31.

There is a realised nominal price for FY26, a forecast price for FY27, and a projected price for FY31.

As you'll see, over the next 5-year period, seven of the following 10 commodity prices are expected to peak in FY27.

Metals and minerals commodity prices

Iron ore price (62% fe)

FY26: US$92 per tonne

FY27: US$83 per tonne

FY31: US$72 per tonne

ASX iron ore mining shares: BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

Copper price

FY26: US$11,767 per tonne

FY27: US$13,754 per tonne

FY31: US$12,786 per tonne

ASX copper mining shares: Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR), BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Capstone Copper Corp CDI (ASX: CSC)

Lithium price (6% spodumene concentrate)

FY26: US$1,532 per tonne

FY27: US$2,499 per tonne

FY31: US$1,684 per tonne

ASX lithium mining shares: PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS), Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR), Elevra Lithium Ltd (ASX: ELV)

Gold price

FY26: US$4,268 per ounce

FY27: US$4,534 per ounce

FY31: US$4,149 per ounce

ASX gold mining shares: Newmont CDI (ASX: NEM), Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6)

Nickel prices

FY26: US$16,348 per tonne

FY27: US$17,226 per tonne

FY31: US$18,473 per tonne

ASX nickel shares: IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO), Nickel Industries Ltd (ASX: NIC)

Energy commodity prices

Brent crude oil price

FY26: US$79 per barrel

FY27: US$87 per barrel

FY31: US$68 per barrel

ASX oil shares: Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD), Viva Energy Ltd (ASX: VEA)

LNG prices

FY26: A$13 per gigajoule

FY27: A$16 per gigajoule

FY31: A$11 per gigajoule

ASX energy shares: Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS), Santos Ltd (ASX: STO)

Metallurgical coal price

FY26: US$213 per tonne

FY27: US$233 per tonne

FY31: US$225 per tonne

ASX met coal shares: Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC), BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

Thermal coal price

FY26: US$117 per tonne

FY27: US$128 per tonne

FY31: US$121 per tonne

ASX thermal coal producers: New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC), Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL)

Uranium price

FY26: US$82 per pound

FY27: US$93 per pound

FY31: US$113 per pound

ASX uranium shares: Paladin Energy Ltd  (ASX: PDN), Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE), Deep Yellow Ltd (ASX: DYL)

The post Own ASX mining shares? Official forecasts show commodity prices peaking in FY27 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rise

The Australian share market looks set for a better session on Friday despite a mixed night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 19 points or 0.2% higher this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.1%, but the S&P 500 fell 0.45% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.25%.

Oil prices charge higher

ASX 200 energy shares including Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)could have a good finish to the week after oil prices charged higher overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 2.75% to US$90.71 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 3.15% to US$103.36 a barrel. This follows reports that Iran is stepping up attacks on tankers.

Fortescue shares downgraded

The Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) share price could be heading lower even after hitting a new 52-week low on Thursday. This morning, Morgans has downgraded the iron ore giant's shares to a trim rating with a new price target of $15.40. It said: "We have long argued that investing material capital in near-term loss-making projects (magnetite and new energy) has not diversified Fortescue, and has instead left group earnings more exposed to the iron ore price. Magnetite adds more iron ore exposure but at a higher cost, while new energy investment, and US$0.9-1.3bn of FY27 decarbonisation spend, are funded from hematite cash flow. This dynamic is starting to show in the numbers. Fortescue flagged that net debt rose US$1.9bn in 1Q27, equal to the final dividend (US$1.0bn) plus quarterly capex (US$0.9bn), implying negative FCF for the quarter."

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares including Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a decent finish to the week after the gold price rose overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.45% to US$4,159.6 an ounce. The gold price rebounded from a two-month low as investors weighed the Federal Reserve's uncertain interest rate path.

Buy Mesoblast shares

Bell Potter thinks Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB) shares are undervalued at current levels. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating and $4.45 price target on the biotech company's shares. It said: "MSB remains an enigma for most Australian long only institutions, despite having achieved multiple clinical trial successes, product approvals and revenues likely to exceed US$200m in FY27. We expect this information gap will close over the coming year as the company delivers on additional wins in the clinic."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall

It looks set to be a poor session for Australian investors following a weak night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 53 points or 0.6% lower this morning. In the United States, the Dow Jones fell 0.65%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%.

ASX 200 shares paying dividends

A number of ASX 200 shares are rewarding their shareholders with dividends on Thursday. This includes Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX: AMI), Brambles Ltd (ASX: BXB), Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (ASX: CWY), Medibank Private Ltd (ASX: MPL), and Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX). The latter will be paying a fully franked 10 cents per share dividend to eligible shareholders.

Oil prices mixed

ASX 200 energy shares Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) will be on watch after a mixed night for oil prices. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 0.6% to US$88.91 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 0.3% to US$100.88 a barrel. Traders appear undecided with where oil prices are going next.

Buy ALS shares

ALS Ltd (ASX: ALQ) shares are still in the buy zone according to Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $24.00. It said: "We are becoming increasingly cautious of a deceleration in exploration activity growth from FY28, compounded by weakening Junior equity raisings, a resurgence of cost input inflation observed across the global mining industry, rising bond yields and a weakening gold price environment. That said, indicators point to short-term buoyant conditions in the exploration market, and given the 1Q FY27 Trading Update, we reiterate our position that FY27 Minerals organic revenue growth guidance appears conservative."

Gold price drops

It could be a tough day for ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) on Thursday after the gold price dropped overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 1.35% to US$4,131 an ounce. The release of the US Federal Reserve's minutes revealed expectations for another rate hike.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

AFIC is the largest and one of the oldest listed investment companies (LICs), meaning it invests in other shares on behalf of shareholders.

The LIC structure is beneficial because it provides permanent capital for long-term investment. LICs can also provide investors with a good source of dividends. AFIC recently announced it would move to pay quarterly dividends, giving investors more regular cash flow.

What are the types of investments that AFIC targets?

It has outlined that it focuses on quality companies and it has built a well-diversified portfolio with the right mix of income and growth. By making those investments, Aussies can benefit from compounding over the long-term.

There were six ASX 200 shares amid three growth trends that AFIC decided to invest in.

Rising dividends per share

Two of the ASX 200 shares that AFIC recently invested in were ASX blue-chips: Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) and Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS).

Both of these companies have achieved a turnaround from a growth halt in recent history.

AFIC highlighted that the supermarket business is delivering dividend growth amid rising profits.

In FY26, Woolworths grew its annual dividend by 15% to 97 cents per share. AFIC highlighted that analysts estimate the annual dividend is projected to increase by another 10% in FY27.

For Telstra, the ASX telco share hiked its annual dividend per share by 10.5% to 21 cents per share. Analyst forecasts suggest the company could hike its dividend again in FY27 by another 4.75% to 22 cents per share.

Growing earnings per share

Some of the best ASX 200 shares have delivered earnings growth for many years in a row, and they can continue to deliver impressive profit growth. Earnings projections suggest profit could compound.

Pro Medicus provides a full range of medical imaging software and services to hospitals, imaging centres and healthcare groups worldwide. Earnings per share (EPS) rose 26.4% in FY26, and it's predicted to increase another 30.9% in FY27, according to AFIC.

Meanwhile, TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE) is a provider of enterprise resource planning (ERP) software for businesses, local councils, governments, universities and so on. It's benefiting from rising demand for digitalisation and efficiencies.

The TechnologyOne EPS rose by 16.7% to 42 cents in FY25, and EPS is forecast to increase 19% to 50 cents, according to AFIC.

Compelling gold outlook

The final duo of ASX 200 shares that AFIC revealed it had bought were ASX gold shares.

They are two of the ASX's largest players and there are various tailwinds for the sector such as inflation, investors seeking safety away from the uncertainty of government bonds (and currency).

A higher gold price over the last few years has led to significant improvements in operating cash flow.

For Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM), operating cash flow grew 60% to US$10.3 billion in FY25 and is projected to rise another 28% to US$13.2 billion in FY26, according to AFIC.

With Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), operating cash flow grew 30% in FY26 to A$2.6 billion, it's forecast to rise another 3.8% in FY27.

Of course, these aren't the only ASX shares that could be compelling long-term buys.

The post A leading fund just bought these top ASX 200 shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rebound

The Australian share market looks set for a better session on Friday following a positive night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 48 points or 0.55% higher this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.05%, the S&P 500 rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq edged 0.05% higher.

Oil prices charge higher

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)could have a strong finish to the week after oil prices charged higher overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 3% to US$93.13 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 4.6% to US$102.57 a barrel. This follows reports that the US has sent a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East.

Megaport shares given buy rating

The Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1) share price could be heading even higher according to Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has initiated coverage on the cloud infrastructure provider's shares with a buy rating and $27.00 price target. It commented: "We initiate coverage of Megaport with a BUY recommendation and $27.00 target price. […] In our view Megaport looks value trading on an FY28 EV/EBITDA multiple of c.7x when the median multiple of the domestic comps is c.15x (based on FY28 forecasts) and international comps is c.11x (based on 2027 forecasts)."

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a good finish to the week after the gold price rose overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.5% to US$4,207.6 an ounce. Easing US Treasury yields gave the precious metal a boost.

Buy Netwealth shares

It could be a good time to buy Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) shares according to Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating on the investment platform provider's shares with a trimmed price target of $25.00 (from $30.00). It said: "Given interest rates,we have moved our valuation multiple to 2022-23 levels with a class action provision. Our flow expectations are below FY27 guidance. NWL has operated in similar environments, with large withdrawals and clients moving off platform.FY23 flows landed -10% below the guidance and growth was restored in 12mths. Our $17.9bn matches this experience. So far, we are 6mths into the cycle."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall

It looks set to be a poor start to the month for Australian investors following a mixed night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 48 points or 0.55% lower this morning. In the United States, the Dow Jones fell 0.85%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.25%, but the Nasdaq rose 0.25%.

ASX 200 shares paying dividends

A number of ASX 200 shares are rewarding their shareholders with dividends on Thursday. This includes diversified food company Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA), appliance manufacturer Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG), drinks giant Endeavour Group Ltd (ASX: EDV), and job listings leader Seek Ltd (ASX: SEK). The latter is paying 25 cents per share to shareholders.

Oil prices rise

ASX 200 energy shares including Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a decent session after oil prices rose overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 1.1% to US$90.35 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 0.9% to US$103.50 a barrel. Doubts over US-Iran peace talks were behind the rise.

Buy Liontown shares

Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares are undervalued according to Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating on the lithium miner's shares with a trimmed price target of $1.70. It said: "LTR's EV is lagging the recent recovery in lithium markets and expected tight supplydemand fundamentals. When LTR was trading at its current EV in October 2025, SC6 prices were US$820/t and net debt was $274m. Since then, the Kathleen Valley underground ramp-up has been further de-risked and spot SC6 prices are above US$1,700/t. While we expect lithium markets will be volatile, market fundamentals remain strong. Over FY27, LTR will continue to ramp up and de-risk Kathleen Valley, a highly strategic asset in terms of scale, long project life and location in a tier-one mining jurisdiction."

Gold price edges higher

It could be a positive day for ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) on Thursday after the gold price edged higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.2% to US$4,189.5 an ounce. Cooler inflation data boosted the precious metal.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Indeed, while the ASX 200 has slumped 5.6% since market close on 25 August, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) – which also contains some smaller miners outside of ASX 200 gold stocks – is down as steeper 8.3%.

Although most gold stocks have still strongly outperformed over the past full year, with the All Ords Gold Index still up 22.1% in 12 months, compared to the 1.4% one-year losses posted by the ASX 200.

As for the three big Aussie gold miners I'd buy today, Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares are down 8% in a month and up 45.3% in a year, while Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares are down 13.9% in a month and up 33.2% in a year.

It's a bit of a different picture for Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares, which are down 9.5% in a month and also down 2% in a year.

As you may know, Northern Star has faced some difficulties on and below the ground this year. Those include lower grades at some of its mines as well as lower overall gold production for FY 2026.

But I believe the miner's recent capex spend is set to pay off in FY 2027 and 2028, which should see a notable improvement in the share price performance.

What's been pressuring the ASX 200 gold stocks?

The common headwind pressuring Northern Star, Newmont, and Evolution Mining shares over the past month has been a sharp retrace in the gold price.

Trading for US$4,294 per ounce today, the gold price is down 7.7% since 25 August.

The gold price is now also down around 21% from its record highs, posted on 28 January.

A lot of that fall can be pinned on the outbreak of the Iran war. The conflict has sent global energy prices surging, stoking inflation and pushing central banks, including the US Federal Reserve and the RBA, to increase interest rates. And gold, which pays no yield itself, tends to perform better in low or falling rate environments.

But the case for higher gold prices remains very much in play, which could usher in a big rebound for the recently beaten-down ASX 200 gold stocks.

What are the experts saying?

Hedge fund manager Raphael Lamm, who manages a long-short gold fund, expects that the falling gold price is likely to be short-lived.

Among the reasons Lamm expects a rebound in the price of bullion, which would also support ASX 200 gold stocks, is the "unsustainability of fiscal situations in key markets," with the United States government debt recently topping US$40 trillion.

According to Lamm (quoted by Bloomberg):

While there's been some headwinds to gold markets and the gold price since the Iran war, we think they're very temporary in nature. Most of the key drivers of demand for gold are going to remain intact or even strengthen over the medium term…

We started to increase our long positions relatively aggressively when the gold price got below $4,000, and now we're keeping it where it is, which is in the low- to mid-60% net long.

The post Why I'd buy the dip in top ASX 200 gold stocks like Newmont, Northern Star and Evolution Mining shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.