Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant closed yesterday trading for $119.34. In late morning trade on Wednesday, shares are changing hands for $117.14, down 1.8%.

The ASX 200 is down 1.2% at this same time.

That's today's price action for you.

Now, here's why Rio Tinto shares are grabbing multiple headlines today.

Rio Tinto shares don't only trade on the ASX

As you may be aware, Rio Tinto shares not only trade on the ASX, but also on the New York Stock Exchange, and the London Stock Exchange.

While that arrangement looks likely to remain, British hedge fund Palliser Capital is leading the push for the big miner to drop its primary London listing. BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) made a similar move in 2022 when it dropped its own London listing.

According to Palliser (quoted by The Australian Financial Review), unifying Australia's Rio Tinto Limited and the United Kingdom's Rio Tinto plc would not only "achieve a considerable increase in valuation but also optimise its capital allocation choices and unlock significant corporate governance improvements".

If the unification goes through, Palliser said Rio Tinto shares should continue to trade on the ASX, the LSE Exchange, and the NYSE.

But not everyone agrees.

Like fund manager WaveStone Capital, which owns Rio Tinto's ASX-listed shares.

WaveStone Capital's principal, Raaz Bhuyan, said unifying Rio Tinto in Australia would be "great for bankers … but there is nothing in it for investors".

Bhuyan said:

You've got all these people sitting in the cheap seats throwing stones. There are clearly lots of fees here [to investigate unification]. We should not be funding beach houses for accountants and investment bankers.

$14 billion US bond sale news

Rio Tinto shares are also making big news on a separate front today.

Citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter, the AFR reported this morning that the ASX 200 miner is looking to sell between US$7 billion and US$9 billion of bonds in the US investment-grade bond market.

The proceeds (reportedly up to AU$14.3 billion) will be used to fund Rio Tinto's acquisition of Arcadium Lithium (ASX: LTM). That deal was completed last Friday, 7 March.

Arcadium Lithium is being renamed Rio Tinto Lithium. This will also include the Rincon lithium project.

Commenting on the completed acquisition last week, Rio Tinto CEO Jakob Stausholm said:

By combining Rio Tinto's scale, financial strength, operational and project development experience with Arcadium's Tier 1 assets, technical and commercial capabilities, we are creating a world-class lithium business which sits alongside our leading iron ore, aluminium and copper operations.

The post Why Rio Tinto shares are making big news today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant closed yesterday trading for $114.92. In morning trade on Friday, shares are changing hands for $115.47 apiece, up 0.5%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 1.0% at this same time.

This comes as iron ore edged back above US$100 per tonne. And it follows on two separate multi-billion-dollar announcements from the miner.

Here's what's happening.

Rio Tinto share price lifts amid $1.8 billion development

Shortly before market close on Thursday, the Rio Tinto share price was in the spotlight after the company announced it would invest $1.8 billion to develop its Brockman Syncline 1 (BS1) mine project, located in Western Australia.

According to the release, BS1 will have the capacity to process up to 34 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of iron ore, leveraging existing plants. First ore is now scheduled for 2027 rather than 2028.

Construction of the project will kick off this year. Rio Tinto estimates 1,000 jobs will be created during the construction phase. Once operational, it said that BS1 will sustain a workforce of about 600.

Commenting on the $1.8 billion project development that could help support the Rio Tinto share price longer-term, Rio Tinto Iron Ore CEO Simon Trott said, "Brockman 4 produced 43 million tonnes of iron ore in 2024."

Trott added:

Securing this project extends the life of the Brockman hub. This is good for our business, good for Western Australia and good for the Australian economy.

Rio Tinto has been mining iron ore in the Pilbara for almost six decades and our tranche of new mines will ensure we can continue to supply the globe's ongoing need for iron ore, for decades to come.

ASX 200 miner completes $10.8 billion acquisition

The Rio Tinto share price could also benefit longer term from the company's US$6.7 billion (AU$10.8 billion) acquisition of Arcadium Lithium (ASX: LTM).

Rio Tinto first announced its acquisition intentions back on 10 October.

After market close on Thursday, the ASX 200 miner reported that the acquisition has completed following the sanctioning of the Scheme of Arrangement by the Royal Court of Jersey on 5 March.

Arcadium Lithium will now be renamed Rio Tinto Lithium, which will also include the Rincon lithium project.

Arcadium Lithium shareholders will receive $5.85 for each share held at the scheme record date.

Commenting on the completed deal, Rio Tinto CEO Jakob Stausholm said:

By combining Rio Tinto's scale, financial strength, operational and project development experience with Arcadium's Tier 1 assets, technical and commercial capabilities, we are creating a world-class lithium business which sits alongside our leading iron ore, aluminium and copper operations.

We believe we are well-positioned to deliver the materials needed for the energy transition while maintaining our focus on respecting local communities, minimising environmental impacts and delivering value for shareholders and other stakeholders.

With today's intraday boost factored in, the Rio Tinto share price is down 4% in a year.

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Despite Rio Tinto stock being impacted by an iron ore price that was 11% lower than the year prior, the company's operating cash flow increased 3% to US$15.6 billion, underlying operating profit (EBITDA) only dropped 2% to US$23.3 billion, net profit rose 15% to US11.5 billion, and the annual dividend per share was cut by just 8% to US$4.02.

But, those were just the headline numbers. There's more to the result than meets the eye and I think investors need to know about at least three elements of the report.

Growing non-iron earnings

The business has long been seen as one of the largest iron ore miners in the world. It still is. Iron ore still makes up the lion's share of the ASX mining company's operating profit.

However, pleasingly for Rio Tinto stock investors, two of its other commodities helped offset a lot of the iron ore pain felt in FY24.

Rio Tinto reported that in the 12 months to December 2024, it made US$24.4 billion of reportable segment underlying operating profit (EBITDA). Iron ore's underlying operating profit fell 19% to US$16.2 billion.

But, pleasingly, aluminium's underlying operating profit jumped 61% to US$3.7 billion, and copper's underlying operating profit soared 75% to US$3.4 billion.

The average London Metals Exchange (LME) price for both copper and aluminium increased by 8% during the period. There was also a 3% lift in copper-equivalent sales volumes.

In my view, the less Rio Tinto relies on iron ore, the better.

Rising net debt

I'm not too concerned about the fact that Rio Tinto's net debt position has worsened compared to last year as it's still relatively low compared to the size of the business, but it is worth noting (and does have some negative implications).

At 31 December 2024, the company had net debt of US$5.5 billion, an increase of US$1.3 billion compared to 31 December 2023.

Its net gearing ratio (net debt to total capital) was 9% at 31 December 2024, compared to 7% at 31 December 2023.

More net debt obviously comes with a higher annual interest rate cost, assuming the debt's interest rate stays the same.

The company continues to pay a large dividend to owners of Rio Tinto stock (60% of net profit), so it's a balancing act between ensuring a stable balance sheet and rewarding shareholders.

Numerous projects progressing

Rio Tinto is working on a number of projects to help grow its production and profitability in the coming years. Investors should keep an eye on how the business plans to change and whether plans are on schedule and on budget.

At the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine in Mongolia, Rio is working on various aspects of the mine's infrastructure. It has commissioned the third and fourth ventilation shafts and it's also commissioning the conveyor belt to take material to the surface. The mine is ramping up to 500 thousand tonnes of copper per year from 2028 to 2036.

At the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, the SimFer mine is on track to deliver first production at the mine gate in 2025, ramping up over 30 months to an annualised capacity of 60 metric tonnes (mt) per year (or 27mt per year if talking about the Rio Tinto share of that total production).

In the Pilbara, it is advancing five replacement iron ore projects, including Western Range, where the first ore production is on schedule for the first half of 2025.

The company has also approved a US$2.5 billion plan to expand the Rincon lithium project in Argentina. It also has an agreement to acquire Arcadium Lithium CDI (ASX: LTM) for US$6.7 billion, which would make Rio Tinto a global leader in the energy transition commodity space.

Once all of these plans are complete, the company will be a much more diversified business, which could help boost confidence in Rio Tinto stock.

The post 3 things about Rio Tinto stock every smart investor knows appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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As the chart above shows, the Rio Tinto share price has been highly volatile in the last few years. That volatility has been largely caused by the shifting iron ore price.

However, the mining giant is exploring different, future-facing commodities such as copper and lithium to diversify and grow its global operations and profit.

One expert has outlined their positivity on Rio Tinto and how lithium could become a significant player in that commodity.

Broker Ord Minnett positive on the miner

Writing on The Bull, Tony Paterno from Ord Minnett has called Rio Tinto shares a buy.

Paterno highlighted the ASX mining share recently at an investor conference, providing an update regarding its volume guidance.

The Ord Minnett expert also noted that Rio Tinto reiterated its confidence about the outlook for the Arcadium Lithium CDI (ASX: LTM) transaction and the lithium market as a whole. Its US$7 billion acquisition of Arcadium is expected to be completed by mid-2025.

Paterno highlighted that Rio Tinto's management team was bullish about lithium and expected the market size to "grow five-fold" by 2035.

Combining Arcadium with Rio's Jadar and Rincon assets would make it "the third biggest lithium miner in the world", according to the Ord Minnett expert.

Rio Tinto advised that the development of the "super sites" in Argentina was expected to come with production costs in the lower quartile of its competitors.

At the time of the US$2.5 billion announcement to expand Rincon, Rio Tinto CEO Jakob Stausholm said:

The attractive long-term outlook for lithium driven by the energy transition underpins our investment in Rincon. We are dedicated to developing this tier 1, world-class resource at scale at the low end of the cost curve.

We are equally committed to meeting the highest ESG standards, leveraging our advanced technology to halve the amount of water used in processing, while continuing to grow our mutually beneficial partnerships with local communities and Salta province.

Building on Argentina's supportive economic policies, skilled workforce, and exceptional resources we are positioning ourselves to become one of the top lithium producers globally.

This investment alongside our proposed Arcadium acquisition ensures that lithium will become one of the key pillars of our commodity portfolio for decades to come.

The ASX mining share certainly appears confident that lithium will play a major part in its future.

Rio Tinto share price snapshot

In the last 12 months, the Rio Tinto share price has fallen by 6%.

The post Why this expert thinks lithium could be a big deal for Rio Tinto shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the time of writing, the ASX 200 has plunged by a nasty 1.42% and is back under 8,180 points after closing at 8,294.1 points last Friday.

However, this falling tide isn't lowering all ASX boats. In fact, we've seen no fewer than four ASX 200 shares hit new 52-week highs this Monday, despite the broader market's dive.

Here they are.

Four ASX 200 shares smashing out new 52-week highs this Monday

First up, we have ASX 200 financial services share Insignia Financial Ltd (ASX: IFL). Insignia shares closed at $4.12 each last week. But those same shares opened at $4.18 this morning before rising as high as $4.25. That's Insignia's new 52-week high, and the highest the company has traded at since late 2021.

The reasons behind this market-defying rise are fairly clear-cut here. Insignia is currently caught in an ASX love triangle, with rival bids from CC Capital Partners and (just this morning) Bain Capital resulting in a race higher. At the moment, the bidding price is $4.30 per share, so it's not too surprising to see Insignia where it is right now.

Our next ASX 200 share worth a look at is gold miner Gold Road Resources Ltd (ASX: GOR). Gold Road stock ended last week at $2.16 a share. This morning, those shares opened at $2.16 but rose up as high as $2.22 this afternoon. Not only is that a new 52-week high for Gold Road, but a new all-time record high.

Again, we don't have to look too far here – gold prices are once again on the march. As we covered this morning, Friday night trading saw the precious metal climb by 0.9% to US$2,715 an ounce.

Given the fresh lows of the Australian dollar today, this is particularly good news for ASX 200 gold shares like Gold Road. Thus, it's not a shock to see this company rise in value this Monday.

Two more stocks at new highs today

Also joining the exclusive club of gainers this Monday is ASX energy generator and retailer Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG). Origin shares closed last week at $11.08 each and opened at $11.03 this morning.

But it didn't take long for investors to push this company up to a new 52-week high of $11.23 just before lunchtime today. That's the highest Origin has traded at since way back in 2015.

This one is a little less clear. We haven't had any fresh ASX news out of Origin for months now. However, some ASX brokers, including UBS, have recently named Origin a buy. As we discussed earlier this month, UBS currently has a buy rating on this ASX 200 share, with a 12-month share price target of $11.75. It's possible that this optimism is driving other investors to buy Origin stock today.

Finally, ASX 200 lithium share Arcadium Lithium plc (ASX: LTM) has hit a new 52-week high this session. Arcadium shares hit a new 52-week high of $9.25 this morning after closing at $9.13 a share on Friday and opening at $9.17 this morning.

Again, it seems we have some M&A action to thank.

Last year, ASX 200 mining giant Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) agreed to purchase Arcadium in full for US$5.85 per share. Since this deal is denominated in US dollars, any falls in the Aussie dollar (as have happened in recent days) give shareholders a potential boost if the deal reaches the finishing line.

With the Aussie hitting a post-COVID low today of 61.37 US cents, this jump for Arcadium shares today is a predictable one.

The post 4 ASX 200 shares smashing new 52-week highs while the market sinks on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Four ASX shares that are not letting that hold them back today are listed below. Here's why they are rising:

Arcadium Lithium (ASX: LTM)

The Arcadium Lithium share price is up 8% to $9.13. Investors have been buying the lithium miner's shares today after it released an update on its proposed takeover by Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) for US$5.85 per share in cash. Arcadium Lithium revealed that the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States has concluded its review of the proposed acquisition of Arcadium Lithium by Rio Tinto and determined that there are no unresolved national security concerns. This means that merger control clearance has now been satisfied or waived in Australia, Canada, China, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL)

The Bellevue Gold share price is up almost 3% to $1.09. This appears to have been driven by bargain hunters swooping in after the gold miner's shares were sold off earlier this week. Investors were selling Bellevue Gold's shares after it downgraded its production guidance. Management revised its full year gold production guidance range to 150,000 ounces to 165,000 ounces. This compares to its original guidance range of 165,000 ounces to 180,000 ounces for FY 2025. Bell Potter believes investors should be buying the dip. In response to the update, the broker retained its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $1.90.

Catalyst Metals Ltd (ASX: CYL)

The Catalyst Metals share price is up almost 8% to $2.88. This follows the release of a quarterly production update from the gold miner this morning. Catalyst Metals revealed that its Plutonic and Henty operations both delivered another consistent performance. This meant that group gold production was 28,400 for the three months, up slightly from the previous quarter. Management notes that this performance allowed Catalyst to end the quarter with $84 million in cash and bullion. It also repaid the final instalment of a gold loan, inherited through the acquisition of Superior Gold. As a result, Catalyst is now debt free.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

The Northern Star share price is up 3% to $16.58. Investors have been buying the gold miner's shares after the price of the precious metal pushed higher overnight. It isn't just Northern Star that is rising. At the time of writing, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold index is up 1.4%.

The post Why Arcadium Lithium, Bellevue Gold, Catalyst Metals, and Northern Star shares are rising today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the time of writing, the $10 billion ASX lithium stock is up 8% to $9.14.

As a comparison, here's how other lithium stocks are performing:

• The Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) share price is down over 2%
• The Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price is down 4%
• The Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) share price is down 3.5%
• The Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) share price is down 3.7%

Why is this ASX lithium stock outperforming?

Today's gain has been driven by some news relating to its proposed blockbuster takeover by mining giant Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO).

As a reminder, the two parties signed a definitive agreement late last year under which Rio Tinto will acquire Arcadium Lithium in an all-cash transaction for US$5.85 per share (A$8.71 per share).

This represented a sizeable 90% premium to the prevailing Arcadium Lithium share price and valued the company at approximately US$6.7 billion (A$10 billion) at the time.

Since then, the Australian dollar has fallen against the US dollar, making Rio Tinto's offer of US$5.85 per share now worth approximately A$9.41 per share, which values the ASX lithium stock at approximately A$10.8 billion.

What's the latest?

Well, the good news for shareholders is that the takeover deal received a big boost overnight.

According to the release, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States has concluded its review of the proposed acquisition of Arcadium Lithium by Rio Tinto and determined that there are no unresolved national security concerns.

This means that merger control clearance has now been satisfied or waived in Australia, Canada, China, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In addition, investment screening approval has been satisfied in the United Kingdom.

What's left?

There are still a few hurdles left for Rio Tinto to jump before it can add this ASX lithium stock to its portfolio.

The release notes that transaction remains subject to investment screening approvals in Australia, Canada, and Italy, as well as other customary closing conditions.

But if all goes to plan, Arcadium Lithium advised that it expects the proposed transaction to close before middle of 2025.

Unlike Arcadium Lithium's shares, Rio Tinto's shares aren't rising on the news. At the time of writing, the mining giant's shares are down slightly to $115.67.

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It's common for resources to go through cycles of high prices and low prices, depending on what's happening with supply and demand.

Lithium is an interesting commodity because global demand is increasing over time. However, supply has also increased, which is a major part of the problem for the ASX lithium shares.

Considering the current low valuation, it's worthwhile asking whether the Pilbara Minerals share price can turn around next year.

Large players spot an opportunity

Before we get to the specifics of whether the ASX lithium share is an opportunity, I think it's worth noting other activity by other investors in the space. If we notice that other parties are making a move, it could be a useful signal.

Readers may have seen global mining giant Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) recently made a takeover bid, which was accepted, for Arcadium Lithium CDI (ASX: LTM).

The offer of US$5.85 per share was a 90% premium to Arcadium's closing price on 4 October 2024.

Rio Tinto made the move to create a lithium business alongside its aluminium and copper operations to supply materials needed for the energy transition. Rio Tinto CEO Jakob Stausholm said:

This is a counter-cyclical expansion aligned with our disciplined capital allocation framework, increasing our exposure to a high-growth, attractive market at the right point in the cycle.

… Our team has deep conviction in the long-term value that combining our offerings will deliver to all stakeholders.

Rio Tinto suggests that lithium demand could rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 10% by 2040, leading to a supply deficit.

With that in mind, let's consider what could happen next year.

Where could the Pilbara Minerals share price end up?

It may largely depend on the lithium price. If there are signs of a recovery, then the market may be more willing to pay a higher price for the miner, believing that profits could improve in the future.

However, it was pleasing to see that Pilbar Minerals was, at least temporarily, putting its Ngungaju plant into care and maintenance to reduce costs, strengthen its financial position, and reduce its production output. This could play a part in increasing lithium prices.

UBS expects the spodumene (lithium) price to be US$800 per tonne in 2025. Pilbara Minerals' realised price was US$682 per tonne in the three months to September 2024, so the broker is suggesting a possible 17% rise.

UBS suggested the increase in lithium prices would help earnings and cash flows but not enough to deliver material-free cash flow generation after capital expenditure. The broker thinks if lithium miners delay their growth projects, it could bring forward a "market rebalance, but the prospect of a short-term price spike remains unlikely".

The broker has a Pilbara Minerals share price target of $2.35, which is below the current value of $2.50. That implies UBS doesn't think the Pilbara Minerals share price will rise at all over the next 12 months.

However, if there is a price spike, I'd imagine the ASX lithium share's financials and market capitalisation would respond positively.

The post Is the Pilbara Minerals share price set to make a stellar comeback in 2025? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Rio Tinto aims to acquire Arcadium Lithium for US$5.85 a share in an all-cash transaction, 90% above Arcadium Lithium's closing price on 4 October prior to the acquisition announcement.

The total value of the deal works out to some US$6.7 billion (AU$10.2 billion).

While that agreement wasn't formally announced until 10 October, rumours of the deal had been circulating for the prior week.

And investors responded by sending the ASX 200 lithium stock soaring by 94% since market close on 3 October. Though shares remain down 28% year to date.

Commenting on the acquisition at the time, Rio Tinto CEO Jakob Stausholm said:

Acquiring Arcadium Lithium is a significant step forward in Rio Tinto's long-term strategy, creating a world-class lithium business alongside our leading aluminium and copper operations to supply materials needed for the energy transition.

Arcadium Lithium is an outstanding business today and we will bring our scale, development capabilities and financial strength to realise the full potential of its Tier 1 portfolio.

But not all shareholders are thrilled with the standing offer.

Rio Tinto offer undervalues ASX 200 lithium stock

Blackwattle portfolio managers Tim Riordan and Michael Teran believe Rio Tinto's offer undervalues the ASX 200 lithium stock.

In Blackwattle's Mid Cap Quality fund October report, they note that Arcadium Lithium was the largest positive contributor to the fund's performance over the month, spurred by the huge rally following Rio Tinto's bid for the vertically integrated global lithium chemicals producer.

According to Blackwattle:

We view LTM as highly unique given its vertical integration and growth potential. The Investor Day only a few weeks prior in September highlighted the value creation potential over the next few years.

As long-term investors, we were very excited about this opportunity, and believed the stock was deeply undervalued, but needed execution and time, to see this potential value realised.

With that background in mind, Riordan and Teran were less than impressed with Rio Tinto's US$6.7 billion offer.

The fund managers said:

When details of the deal were leaked at a value of US$4 billion to US$6 billion, we advocated strongly to the LTM board through a public letter to push for a price closer to US$8 billion. Later that same week, LTM board announced the recommendation of a RIO bid of US$6.7 billion.

We were disappointed with this result, and we stand convicted that the sale price for LTM should be closer to US$8 billion, based on replacement value and the Arcadium September 2024 Investor Day targets.

LTM shareholders should be fairly compensated for the strategic value provided to RIO.

For Rio Tinto's acquisition of the ASX 200 lithium stock to move forward, a majority of Arcadium Lithium shareholders present and voting, and representing at least 75% of the voting rights of all shares voted, will be required.

The post Down 28% in 2024, why this ASX 200 lithium stock could now be 'deeply undervalued' appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here's why they are falling on Friday:

Arcadium Lithium (ASX: LTM)

The Arcadium Lithium share price is down 1.5% to $8.10. This follows the release of the lithium giant's quarterly update this morning. Third quarter revenue was US$203.1 million and reported attributable net income was just US$16.1 million. Adjusted EBITDA was down to US$42.9 million. Management advised that the decline in adjusted EBITDA compared to the second quarter was attributable to lower average realised prices and lower volumes, in addition to higher costs.

Block Inc (ASX: SQ2)

The Block Inc share price is down 7% to $110.85. Investors have been selling this payments company's shares today following the release of its quarterly update. For the third quarter, Block reported a 6.4% increase in revenue to US$5.98 billion and a 69% lift in adjusted in adjusted EBITDA to US$807 million. The former was short of consensus estimates by US$280 million. In addition, the Square and Afterpay owner revealed that it expects its fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA to be US$725 million. This is also short of the consensus estimate of US$754 million.

Jumbo Interactive Ltd (ASX: JIN)

The Jumbo Interactive share price is down 4% to $12.42. This morning, this online lottery ticket seller released a trading update at its annual general meeting. Management revealed that its group Total Transaction Value (TTV) and revenue were down 4.9% and 8.1% respectively on the prior corresponding period during the first four months of FY 2025. This was mainly due to the subdued jackpot environment. However, Jumbo continues to tightly control its cost base and manage its product portfolio. This is to ensure that its earnings margin is in line with its previous guidance.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

The Mineral Resources share price is down 2% to $37.70. This appears to have been driven by news that a major ratings agency has downgraded the mining and mining services company. According to the AFR, Moody's has downgraded the company's rating to negative, citing the "negative implications" of the recent governance issues relating to its founder and CEO, Chris Ellison. Mineral Resources shares are down 26% since this time last month.

The post Why Arcadium Lithium, Block, Jumbo, and Mineral Resources shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

With a gain of 94%, Arcadium Lithium (ASX: LTM) shares left others in their wake.

Why did this ASX lithium stock almost double in value?

The catalyst for this gain was news that it has agreed to be acquired by mining giant Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) in a blockbuster US$6.7 billion (A$10 billion) deal.

The ASX lithium stock accepted an all-cash transaction for US$5.85 per share (A$8.71 per share), which was a 90% premium to where Arcadium Lithium's shares were trading prior to the news leaking to the market.

Rio Tinto notes that the deal will bring the lithium miner's world-class, complementary lithium business into its portfolio, which establishes it as a global leader in energy transition commodities – from aluminium and copper to high-grade iron ore and lithium.

Commenting on the deal, Rio Tinto's CEO, Jakob Stausholm, said:

Acquiring Arcadium Lithium is a significant step forward in Rio Tinto's long-term strategy, creating a world-class lithium business alongside our leading aluminium and copper operations to supply materials needed for the energy transition. Arcadium Lithium is an outstanding business today and we will bring our scale, development capabilities and financial strength to realise the full potential of its Tier 1 portfolio. This is a counter-cyclical expansion aligned with our disciplined capital allocation framework, increasing our exposure to a high-growth, attractive market at the right point in the cycle.

Why accept the deal?

The ASX lithium stock's chair, Peter Coleman, believes the deal is in the best interests of its shareholders. He said:

While we remain very optimistic about the long-term outlook for lithium as the energy transition continues, we believe the all-cash premium offer made by Rio Tinto is a full and fair one for our shareholders. We arrived at this conclusion after conducting a comprehensive evaluation of Rio Tinto's proposed transaction. The immediate and substantial cash offer provides shareholders with certainty and liquidity, allowing shareholders to realize the full value of our investment without the ongoing risks associated with potential future market fluctuations.

Developing and expanding lithium production involves significant capital investment, construction challenges, regulatory hurdles and market risks, including unprecedented price volatility driven by changing global supply and demand dynamics. By accepting this proposed transaction from a larger, more diversified player, shareholders can avoid these risks as well as potential delays or setbacks in project execution, in exchange for immediate returns. And our other stakeholders get access to significant backing from Rio Tinto, a company renowned for its size, capabilities and global presence.

Though, it is worth noting that the deal is not complete. It still needs approval from shareholders, customary regulatory approvals, and other closing conditions.

The post Why this ASX lithium stock almost doubled in value in October appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

However, it is clear that the heat is coming out of the property market.

While the national home value rose for the 21st consecutive month, it only increased by 0.3%, according to CoreLogic data. And the Sydney median home price fell for the first time since January 2023.

Meantime, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lost 1.33% in October.

Shares vs. property price performance in October

The property market remains two-tiered, with the mid-sized capitals of Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane continuing their phenomenal run, albeit at a slower pace.

Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane recorded solid median home price gains of 1.4%, 1.1% and 0.7% in October.

Hobart home values also increased 0.8%, which is a strong result and the first monthly gain since June.

Meantime, home values declined by 0.1% in Sydney, 0.2% in Melbourne, 1% in Darwin and 0.3% in Canberra.

Tim Lawless, CoreLogic's research director, said there was an almost uniform trend across the cities of prices rising at the lower end and softening at the upper end.

This is due to affordability constraints, as well as a higher share of investors and first home buyers in the market. These buyers tend to target lower-priced properties, such as apartments.

Lawless said:

A combination of less borrowing capacity and broader affordability challenges, as well as a higher-than-average share of investors and first home buyers in the market is the most likely explanation for stronger conditions across the lower value cohorts of the market.

The past three months has seen the lowest quartile either record a higher growth rate or smaller decline relative to the upper quartile or broad middle of the market across every capital city except Canberra.

New figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today show that the value of new investor loans rose 29.5% over the 12 months ending 30 September, while owner-occupier loans rose by 13.1%.

The value of first home buyer loans increased by 8.8% year-over-year.

There are more homes for sale during the Spring season, which is evening-up supply and demand. This is contributing to slower price rises in the strongest markets and price falls in the weaker markets.

In addition, CoreLogic said the number of sales "looks to be fading", which is keeping supply higher.

Let's take a look at the numbers.

Shares vs. property: Here are the numbers for October

Top 5 risers of the ASX 200 last month

The ASX 200 fell 1.33% in October. Meantime, these 5 ASX 200 shares were the highest gainers.

Why did the Arcadium Lithium share price skyrocket 89%?

The Arcadium Lithium share price juggernaut was driven by news that mining giant Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) will take over the company via an all-cash transaction of US$5.85 per share (A$8.71 per share).

The Arcadium Lithium share price is currently $8.15, down 0.97% for the day.

On the day before Rio confirmed it had approached Arcadium, the ASX lithium stock closed at $4.18 per share.

Rio confirmed the approach on 7 October and the Arcadium Lithium share price rocketed 46% higher.

Rio then announced a deal on 9 October, after the market closed. On 10 October, Arcadium shares ripped 39% higher.

Rio Tinto's CEO, Jakob Stausholm, said:

Acquiring Arcadium Lithium is a significant step forward in Rio Tinto's long-term strategy, creating a world-class lithium business alongside our leading aluminium and copper operations to supply materials needed for the energy transition.

The post How ASX shares vs. property performed in October appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

But not all shares fell with the market last month. In fact, some made their shareholders smile with stellar gains.

Let's take a look at the best performers on the ASX 200 in October. They are as follows:

Arcadium Lithium (ASX: LTM)

The Arcadium Lithium share price was the best performer on the ASX 200 index last month with a massive 94% gain. This was driven by news that the lithium miner has agreed to be taken over by mining giant Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO). The mining behemoth will acquire Arcadium Lithium through an all-cash transaction for US$5.85 per share (A$8.71 per share). This values Arcadium Lithium at approximately US$6.7 billion (A$10 billion). Rio Tinto's CEO, Jakob Stausholm, said: "Acquiring Arcadium Lithium is a significant step forward in Rio Tinto's long-term strategy, creating a world-class lithium business alongside our leading aluminium and copper operations to supply materials needed for the energy transition."

Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG)

The Sigma Healthcare share price was some way back as the next best performer with a gain of 36%. Investors were buying the pharmacy chain operator and distributor's shares in response to an update on its proposed acquisition of Chemist Warehouse. Sigma revealed that it has offered to make court-enforceable undertakings to help satisfy competition concerns. It seems that the market believes this could be enough to get the deal approved by the ACCC. The competition regulator is expected to make a decision on the proposal next week.

Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL)

The Regis Resources share price was on form and raced 33% higher in October. The catalyst for this was the release of the gold miner's first quarter update. Regis Resources reported that total group production for the three months came in at 94,500 ounces. This means that the company is on track to achieve its full year production guidance of 350,000 ounces to 380,000 ounces. Management also advised that it generated $85 million in cash during the three months, boosting its cash and bullion balance to $380 million. The gold price breaking records during the month also gave its shares a boost.

Insignia Financial Ltd (ASX: IFL)

The Insignia Financial share price delivered the goods for investors last month and recorded a gain of 26%. During the period, the financial services company revealed that OnePath Custodians, together with Zurich Australia and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), reached an agreement to settle a class action commenced by Slater and Gordon in 2020 for a total of $50 million. In addition, it released its first quarter update and revealed that funds under management and administration increased by $8.3 billion (+2.7%) to $319.6 billion.

The post These were the best performing ASX 200 shares in October appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

If a major player like Rio Tinto sees an opportunity with lithium stocks and is willing to pay a large premium for an ASX mining share, then it's probably worth considering whether the beaten-up sector is actually an opportunity for the long term.

As a reminder, Rio Tinto's offer of US$5.85 per share has been accepted. This represented a premium of 90% to Arcadium's closing price of $3.08 per share on 4 October 2024 and 39% to Arcadium's volume-weighted average price since it was created on 4 January 2024.

Rio Tinto said this takeover was a "counter-cyclical" expansion, increasing its exposure to a "high-growth, attractive market at the right point in the cycle".

Consequently, broker E&P Financial has suggested that ASX lithium shares are just one deal away from a resurgence, with a shrinking number of miners to invest in, according to reporting by the Australian Financial Review. The broker mentioned Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) and Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) as opportunities.

Expert views on ASX lithium share

E&P Financial said that Rio Tinto's Arcadium Lithium deal could spark institutional investment in ASX lithium shares if investors speculate on the next takeover target.

The AFR quoted E&P financial analyst Adam Martin, who said in a note to clients:

Rio's acquisition of Arcadium feels like bottom of the cycle M&A. We are conscious that one more M&A deal in the lithium sector would 'light up' equities given limited options to play this thematic globally.

However, Martin also warned that some ASX lithium shares were struggling to make a profit at the current spodumene/lithium price after factoring in capital expenditure growth. He said:

There is market to market downside risk to consensus earnings in the shorter term given spot lithium prices.

E&P has lowered its lithium forecasts over the next six months, according to the AFR. S&P Global Platts says the current spodumene price is approximately US$760 per tonne, and E&P Financial is forecasting the spodumene price could rise to US$850 per tonne in the second quarter of FY25 and reach US$1,000 per tonne in the third quarter.

The broker suggested Pilbara Minerals and Liontown Resources as potential acquisition targets. E&P Financial said that Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), due to its recent drilling activity, or another industrial company, could want to enter lithium mining.

In the broker's eyes, Pilbara Minerals shares could be the best choice as a "less risky option". This is due to its "strong" balance sheet with a large cash pile, a competitive cost structure and potential for growth following a recovery of lithium prices, according to the AFR.

So, now may well be a good time to look at ASX lithium shares, if the lithium price and share prices keep rising from here.

The post Is it time to follow Rio Tinto's lead and buy ASX lithium shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rebound

The Australian share market looks set to rebound on Monday following a good finish on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 46 points or 0.55% higher. In the United States, the Dow Jones was up 1%, the S&P 500 was 0.6% higher and the Nasdaq rose 0.3%. Interest rate cut optimism lifted markets once again.

Oil prices fall

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a subdued start to the week after oil prices fell on Friday. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was down 0.4% to US$75.56 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was down 0.45% to US$79.04 a barrel. This couldn't stop oil prices from recording their second consecutive weekly gain amid rising tensions in the Middle East.

Hold Arcadium Lithium shares

Bell Potter has put a hold rating and $8.70 price target on Arcadium Lithium (ASX: LTM) shares after it received a takeover offer from Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO). It said: "We see little risk to the current deal in terms of an interloper or ultimately successful completion given the value premium and Board endorsement. With LTM's share price likely to trade towards the bid value of US$5.85/sh (~A$8.70/CDI) through to deal completion, our recommendation structure supports a Hold recommendation."

Gold price jumps

ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a strong start to the week after the gold price jumped on Friday. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was up 1.3% to US$2,674.2 an ounce. This was driven by the release of US economic data that was supportive of rate cuts.

Buy Incitec Pivot shares

Goldman Sachs thinks that Incitec Pivot Ltd (ASX: IPL) shares are good value at current levels. According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating on the commercial explosives and fertiliser company's shares with an improved price target of $3.30. It said: "The fertilisers segment will be pressured by further anticipated normalisation of Fertiliser prices, partially offset by any improvement in plant reliability. Importantly, we expect the core explosives businesses to benefit from tighter global nitrogen markets and domestic AN markets particularly as it recontracts its domestic tonnes."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Which rocketing Aussie stocks am I talking about?

I'm glad you asked!

Three soaring ASX All Ords shares

The first company that's amply pleasing shareholders today is BrainChip Holdings Ltd (ASX: BRN).

Shares in the ASX All Ords artificial intelligence (AI) chip maker closed yesterday at 26.5 cents. At the time of writing, shares are changing hands for 31.5 cents apiece, bringing the BrainChip share price up 18.9% today.

It also sees the stock up a whopping 96.9% over the past month, when shares were trading near one-year lows.

With no price-sensitive news out of the company since its half year results announcement on 26 August, investors appear to believe this stock was oversold and that its AI developments have strong growth potential.

Moving on to the second ASX All Ords share rocketing higher today, and we have Arcadium Lithium PLC (ASX: LTM).

The Arcadium Lithium share price is up 39% at the time of writing, at $8.22. That sees shares in this ASX lithium stock up more than 100% in five days!

The reason, as you may be aware, is the $10 billion takeover agreement announced today by S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO). Rio Tinto reported it will acquire Arcadium Lithium in an all-cash transaction for US$5.85 (AU$8.71) a share.

Commenting on the acquisition, Rio Tinto CEO Jakob Stausholm said:

Acquiring Arcadium Lithium is a significant step forward in Rio Tinto's long-term strategy, creating a world-class lithium business alongside our leading aluminium and copper operations to supply materials needed for the energy transition.

Arcadium Lithium is an outstanding business today and we will bring our scale, development capabilities and financial strength to realise the full potential of its Tier 1 portfolio.

Which brings us to the third ASX All Ords share that's shooting the lights out on Thursday, Wildcat Resources (ASX: WC8).

The Wildcat Resources share price closed yesterday at 32.5 cents. At the time of writing, shares are changing hands for 39.0 cents apiece, up 20%.

Wildcat Resources shares got a big boost earlier this week after the miner announced further high-grade lithium results from the drilling program at its Tabba Tabba Lithium Project, located in Western Australia.

With no fresh price-sensitive news out today, this ASX All Ords share looks to be enjoying a lift from the renewed excitement around the lithium space spurred by Rio Tinto's $10 billion acquisition announcement of Arcadium.

The post 3 ASX All Ords shares rocketing more than 18% on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are rising more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are climbing:

ARB Corporation Ltd (ASX: ARB)

The ARB share price is up over 3% to $45.03. This follows the release of an update on its proposed acquisition of the 4 Wheel Parts business from Hoonigan. ARB notes that the agreement was subject to court approval in conjunction with Hoonigan's court-supervised reorganisation in the United States following its bankruptcy. This morning, it revealed that the court did not receive any competing offers for the 4 Wheel Parts business. As a result, ARB is expecting the court to approve the agreement at a hearing next week.

Arcadium Lithium (ASX: LTM)

The Arcadium Lithium share price is up a further 39% to $8.21. This has been driven by the announcement of a takeover agreement with Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO). According to the release, Rio Tinto will acquire the lithium miner through an all-cash transaction for US$5.85 per share (A$8.71 per share). This values Arcadium Lithium at approximately US$6.7 billion (A$10 billion). Rio Tinto's CEO, Jakob Stausholm, said: "Acquiring Arcadium Lithium is a significant step forward in Rio Tinto's long-term strategy, creating a world-class lithium business alongside our leading aluminium and copper operations to supply materials needed for the energy transition."

Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL)

The Netwealth share price is up 4% to $27.19. This follows the release of the investment platform provider's quarterly update this morning. Netwealth revealed that its funds under administration (FUA) was $95.4 billion at the end of September. This was up by $7.4 billion from the prior quarter, driven by FUA net inflows of $4 billion and positive market movement of $3.4 billion.

Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL)

The Regis Resources share price is up 2.5% to $2.04. Investors have been buying this gold miner's shares following the release of its first quarter update. Regis Resources revealed that total group production for the first quarter of FY 2025 came in at 94,500 ounces. This means that the company is on track to achieve its full year production guidance of 350,000 ounces to 380,000 ounces. Management also advised that it generated $85 million in cash during the three months, boosting its cash and bullion balance to $380 million.

The post Why ARB, Arcadium Lithium, Netwealth, and Regis Resources shares are storming higher appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.