The bank even made two payments in the pandemic-confounded year of 2020.

So, if you're aiming to bank an extra $10,000 a year in passive income, ANZ shares are well worth investigating.

Atop those regular dividend payments, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank stock has also delivered some market-beating capital gains over the past year.

ANZ shares closed on Friday, trading for $37.69. That sees the stock up 34.4% in 12 months, racing ahead of the 14.2% one-year gains posted by the benchmark index.

Now, we'll dive into how many ANZ shares you might need to buy for an extra $10,000 yearly passive income below.

But first, a few important reminders.

Diversify amid an uncertain future

First, while we're only looking at the dividends on offer from ANZ shares here, a properly diversified passive income portfolio will include many more than just one stock. While there's no magic number that suits everyone, somewhere around a dozen is a decent ballpark figure.

Ideally, these ASX dividend stocks will operate in various sectors and locations. That will help reduce the risk that your income stream will take an unexpected hit if a particular company or industry runs into a rough patch.

Also, bear in mind that the yields you generally see quoted are trailing yields. Future yields may be higher or lower depending on a range of company specific and macroeconomic factors.

If you're buying ANZ shares, these include the ASX 200 bank's risk management and cost controls. ANZ's future profits and dividends will also be affected by the trajectory of interest rates and the broader performance of the Australian economy.

With that in mind…

Banking on ANZ shares for an annual $10,000 passive income

ANZ paid an interim dividend of 83 cents a share on 1 July. The ASX 200 bank paid a final dividend of 83 cents a share on 19 December, both franked at 70%, for a full-year payout of $1.66 a share.

At Friday's closing price, this sees ANZ shares trading on a partly franked trailing dividend yield of 4.4%.

And it means that if you're aiming for $10,000 a year in passive income, you'd need to buy 6,024 ANZ shares today.

How much would that cost?

At Friday's closing price of $37.69 a share, you'd need to invest $227,045 in ANZ shares to bank $10,000 a year in passive income (based on the trailing yields).

Now, that's a sizeable investment to make at one go.

But that's okay.

You can always invest a smaller amount on a regular basis, and you'll reach your income goal in good time.

The post How many ANZ shares do I need to buy for $10,000 a year in passive income? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The market was caught off-guard by news of a major fire at one of Australia's two oil refineries yesterday.

This will undoubtedly add pressure to the fuel supply chain and potentially add to inflation and the chances of higher interest rates.

Amid the growing global fuel crisis, brokers have indicated continuing confidence in several ASX 200 shares.

These companies received renewed buy ratings this week.

Let's review.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

The Rio Tinto share price closed at $172.60 on Thursday, down 0.7%.

Over the past month, the ASX mining giant has lifted 11.6%.

Macquarie reiterated its buy rating on Rio Tinto stock this week.

The broker raised its 12-month price target from $168 to $183.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ)

The ANZ share price finished the session at $37.73, down 1.3%.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 bank share has edged 0.75% higher.

Morgan Stanley maintained its buy rating on ANZ shares this week.

But the broker shaved its 12-month price target from $37.80 to $37.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

The Xero share price closed at $81.86 yesterday, up a whopping 9%.

In an apparent rebound for the entire tech sector, Xero shares have risen 16.1% since 30 March.

UBS reiterated its buy rating on Xero shares this week.

However, the broker slashed its 12-month target from $174 to $127.

Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN)

The Paladin Energy share price closed at $14.15, up 2.6% on Thursday.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 uranium share has rocketed 27.6%.

Morgan Stanley kept its buy rating in place with a $14.45 price target this week.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32)

The South32 share price finished yesterday's trading day at $4.62, down 0.2%.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 mining share has lifted 11.1%.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its buy recommendation this week.

The broker also lifted its share price target from $4.70 to $5.

Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX: ILU)

The Iluka Resources share price closed at $7.77, up 4%.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 mineral sands share has ripped 20.7%.

Morgan Stanley maintained a buy rating and raised its target from $6.70 to $7.90.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

Zip was the third-strongest performer within the ASX 200 yesterday.

The Zip share price ripped 11.4% higher to $2.05 ahead of its quarterly update today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 financial share has soared 28.1%.

Citi reiterated its buy rating on the buy now, pay later provider this week.

The broker has a $2.60 price target on Zip shares.

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL)

The Coles share price closed at $22.70, up 0.2%, yesterday.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 consumer staples share has lifted 9%.

Jefferies reiterated its buy rating this week.

The broker also raised its share price target on Coles from $23.50 to $25.50.

The post ASX 200 shares with renewed buy ratings this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Time to tread carefully

In a recent research note sent to its clients, the broker said it had a "more cautious outlook" on the banks.

As they said:

We've adjusted our loan growth and loan loss forecasts to reflect the initial impact of a weaker economic outlook.

The broker was not ringing the alarm bells, adding that the next reporting season "should demonstrate a continuation of recent trends: good volume growth, stable margins, no surprises on costs, and sound credit quality''.

But they said a shift in operating conditions meant the outlook for loan growth and credit quality would be important.

Their note of caution related in part to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) flagging the potential for a "stagflationary shock", in which the economy experiences flat growth coupled with inflation.

Morgan Stanley said National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) was the most vulnerable of the big four.

As they said:

In our view, NAB is the most vulnerable of the major banks to the shift in operating conditions. At the 1H26 result, we expect close scrutiny of outlook commentary, the business lending pipeline, credit quality lead indicators, collective provision coverage … capital buffers, and capital management decisions.

Morgan Stanley has marginally reduced its price target on NAB shares from $39.80 down to $39.30.

Economic factors weighing

Overall, Morgan Stanley is expecting slower loan growth, as it said:

We believe the combination of RBA rate hikes, higher fuel costs, softer consumer sentiment, and a deterioration in business conditions point to a slowdown in loan growth. Our Macro+ team's lead indicators suggest that housing loan growth has peaked and that business loan growth will be weaker. We have downgraded our major bank Australian housing loan growth forecasts by about 1% in FY26 and about 0.5% in FY27.

Among the other banks, Morgan Stanley has reduced its price target on Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd (ASX: CBA) shares by just 20 cents to $131.

They are forecasting the third-quarter profit to come in at $2.74 billion, down 1.5% compared with the average of the past two quarters.

Morgan Stanley's price target for ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares has been reduced by 80 cents to $37, adding "we think investors are more cautious than consensus about margin trends and mortgage/SME loan growth''.

For Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), Morgan Stanley kept its price target stable at $34.40.

The post In the midst of economic turmoil, what does Morgan Stanley say the ASX banks are worth? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Investors initially turned away from financial stocks in fear of an unstable macro environment. Then, more recently, it seems like investors have rotated back into bank stocks as macro fears have started easing again.

How are Australia's major banks faring today?

The banking sector is dominated by Australia's big four banks: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ). Together, the big four banks make up around a quarter of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) by market capitalisation. 

CBA shares have climbed 3.2% higher over the past month, and are up 12.4% for the year to date. At the time of writing, the bank's shares are changing hands at $181.21.

Westpac shares, however, have fallen 2.32% over the past month but are up 2.4% year to date. At the time of writing, Westpac shares are changing hands for $39.90 a piece.

NAB shares also dropped over the past month by 7.3%, but they're up 2.8% year to date. At the time of writing, the shares are changing hands at $43.64.

ANZ shares are up 1.5% over the past month and up 4.5% over the year to date. At the time of writing, the shares are changing hands at $38.04.

Which banks do analysts rate as a sell?

Analyst sentiment appears to be pretty bearish on most of the major ASX bank stocks.

TradingView data shows that CBA, Westpac, and NAB shares are all rated a sell or a strong sell by brokers, with significant downside risks over the next 12 months.

CBA shares are tipped to crash up to 50.5% to $90 per share, at the time of writing.

Westpac shares are tipped to tumble up to 26.6% to $29.32 per share.

NAB shares are also tipped to drop up to 32% to just $30 per share over the next 12 months.

And there is one major bank which analysts rate as a buy

The data shows that ANZ is the favourite among the bunch. Out of 16 analysts, six have a buy or strong buy rating on ANZ shares, and another six have a hold rating.

The average target price of $26.38 implies a potential 4.5% downside at the time of writing. But some are optimistic that the shares could climb 13% higher from here to $43 each.

Why is ANZ the standout?

ANZ's strong earnings momentum, predictable cash flow, and diversified portfolio mean that it looks like better value versus its peers. It also has a higher dividend yield than the other major banks, suggesting better upside potential.

I expect more investors to rotate into ANZ shares over the next few months.

The post ANZ, NAB, Westpac, and CBA shares: Analysts rate 3 to sell, and 1 to buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It's been a pretty volatile start to the year for the Australian banking giant.

ANZ shares were relatively flat between early-December and early-February, but they jumped over 11% off the back of the banking giant's stronger-than-expected quarterly update. 

The bank reported a first-quarter cash profit of $1.94 billion, which was up a whopping 75% on the second-half average of FY25 and came in ahead of expectations.

After a couple of ups and downs the shares ended the month 9% higher before crashing over 10% throughout March. ANZ wasn't alone here though. ASX bank stocks slumped across the board as geopolitical tensions, ongoing conflict in the Middle East, soaring fuel prices, and interest rate growth caused concerns about an economic slowdown.

It wasn't long until the ANZ share price took another turn, climbing 5.9% in the first couple of weeks of April. Shares are also up 4.5% for the year to date and 37.8% higher than 12 months ago.

Why is the ANZ share price being so volatile?

There are a few reasons.

April has been a good month for the banking sector as a whole. ASX bank shares have rallied after macro fears eased. These were driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, oil shocks, and trade uncertainties.

Expectations that the US and Iran could soon reach a peace agreement to end the war is also helping to boost markets.

At the same time, economists are not predicting higher and sustained interest rate levels. ANZ economists anticipate that the Reserve Bank will hike interest rates in May. 

Banks like ANZ benefit from interest rate increases over the short term because higher net interest markets help to support earnings levels.

Meanwhile, ANZ's stable earnings, predictable cash flow, and diversified portfolio mean that it looks better value versus its peers. It's likely some investors could have been rotating into the stock in the dip.

But why are the shares tumbling again this week?

There isn't any price-sensitive news out of ANZ to explain the latest share price tumble, so its likely to be the result of investors taking gains after a jump earlier this month, combined with some softening across the sector.

What do brokers expect out of the ANZ share price this year?

Brokers are undecided about the outlook for ANZ shares over the next 12 months. Out of 16 analysts, six have a buy or strong buy rating, and six have a hold rating. Another four have a sell or strong sell rating on the bank's shares.

The average target price of $36.43 implies a potential 4.2% downside at the time of writing. But the maximum target price is $43, which represents a potential 13% upside from here.

For context, brokers hold a sell or strong sell rating on all the other big four major Aussie banks. 

The post What's going on with the ANZ share price? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The market was closed on Monday as Australians celebrated Easter.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) ripped 4.41% to 8,960.6 points over the four trading days.

The remarkable recovery followed news of a two-week ceasefire deal between the US and Iran.

ASX investors hope this will pave the way toward an end to the war in Iran.

Investors continued to buy the dip last week following the steep sell-off over the first three weeks of March.

ASX 200 shares fell 9.1% between 2 March and 23 March before a rebound began, with the index now up 7.1% since then.

James Gerrish from Shaw and Partners says "war fear" in the market is fading but "we're not out of the woods yet".

Businesses across multiple sectors are still assessing the impact of the oil shock, which is likely to reverberate for months to come.

Let's recap the week.

Financial shares led the ASX sectors last week

The ASX 200 financial sector incorporates bank shares, insurers, fund managers, financial services providers, and more.

Let's take a look at how some of these ASX financial stocks performed last week.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price rose 5.98% to close at $183.38 on Friday.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares lifted 6.31% to $38.84.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares ascended 6.87% to $42.77.

The National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) share price spiked 9.06% to $45.36.

The Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) share price soared 9.3% to finish the week at $225.

Among the ASX 200 investment companies and fund managers, GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG) shares fell 0.28% to $1.78.

Magellan Financial Group Ltd (ASX: MFG) shares fell 0.84% to $9.45 amid a shareholder vote on the Barrenjoey merger on Friday.

Magellan announced it had received more than 90% approval from shareholders.

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co Ltd (ASX: SOL) shares lifted 3.92% to $42.98.

Among the financial services providers, AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) shares lifted 6.06% to $1.37.

The Challenger Ltd (ASX: CGF) share price lost 2.6% to close at $8.07 on Friday.

ASX 200 buy now, pay later share Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) ripped 16.5% to $1.85.

Among the insurers, Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) shares fell 1.03% to $7.21.

Medibank Private Ltd (ASX: MPL) shares lifted 1.92% to $4.52.

The QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) share price ascended 4.13% to $22.46.

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the four trading days:

Looking for inspiration after the March sell-off?

Check out these 7 ASX 200 shares just upgraded to strong buy consensus ratings after last month's turmoil.

The post ASX 200 shares rip with financials leading a remarkable recovery last week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

If I were building a $100,000 ASX retirement income portfolio today, I'd blend three quality dividend shares with two ETFs.

Here's how I'd do it.

Reliable earnings and payouts

I'd start with $25,000 in APA Group Ltd (ASX: APA). The infrastructure giant currently offers a dividend yield of about 6.1%, backed by essential gas pipelines and electricity assets that generate long-term contracted cash flow. That kind of reliability is ideal for retirees seeking a consistent retirement income. 

Next, I'd allocate $20,000 to ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ). While the yield is a little below your original 5% screen at roughly 4.5%, the partially franked dividend and resilient banking earnings still make it highly attractive for income investors. Banks remain some of the most dependable dividend payers on the ASX. 

For a third direct shareholding, I'd put $15,000 into Transurban Group (ASX: TCL).

Like APA, it owns hard-to-replicate infrastructure assets, with toll roads across Sydney, Melbourne, and North America. Traffic-linked revenue provides inflation pass-through over time, which can help preserve purchasing power in retirement.

High-yielding blue chips and bonds

Now for the ETFs in the retirement portfolio.

I'd allocate $25,000 to the Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF (ASX: VHY). This ETF gives instant exposure to a basket of Australia's highest-yielding blue-chip shares, including banks, miners, and telcos. It reduces single-stock risk while keeping the income focus front and centre.

The final $15,000 would go into the Vanguard Australian Fixed Interest ETF (ASX: VAF). Bonds might not be exciting, but they add portfolio stability and help smooth out volatility when equity markets get rough.

This blend gives you 60% in direct quality dividend shares, 25% in diversified high-yield equities, and 15% in defensive bonds. It could deliver a blended yield of around 5.3% to 5.8%, along with solid exposure to franking credits and inflation-linked infrastructure.

On a $100,000 portfolio, that could mean $5,300 to $5,800 per year in cash income, before any dividend growth.

Foolish Takeaway

What I really like about this setup is the balance.

APA and Transurban provide infrastructure-style resilience, and ANZ adds partially franked bank income. The Vanguard ETF broadens exposure, while the fixed interest ETF reduces sequence risk, which becomes increasingly important once you're drawing an income.

For an Australian retiree, this is the kind of portfolio that can help generate retirement income today without sacrificing long-term durability.

The post How I'd invest $100,000 for retirement income on the ASX right now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It's great news for investors after the bank's share price fluctuated over the past month as the market adjusted to a new market normal. Throughout March ANZ's share price fell 8.5%.

Despite ongoing global uncertainty, cash rate hikes, and a slowdown in lending, the banking giant's shares are now up 2.3% for the year-to-date and 39% above their trading levels this time last year. 

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is practically flat for the year-to-date, and 18.9% higher than 12 months ago.

Despite interest rate headwinds and broad under-certainty across the ASX financial sector, I still think ANZ shares are a great buy.

Here are three reasons why.

1. ANZ has stable earnings and a predictable cash flow

ANZ is generally considered to have stable earnings and predictable cash flow. This is due to its position as one of Australia's big four banks. The bank has a strong deposit base and a diversified portfolio that means it is relatively defensive in nature.

In mid-February, ANZ posted a first-quarter cash profit of $1.94 billion, up a whopping 75% from the second-half average of FY25. Operating income was up 4% and cash return on tangible equity climbed 11.7% over the quarter.

The news beat expectations, delighted investors and instilled some renewed confidence into the stock. ANZ shares closed at an all-time high following the announcement.

2. It pays a regular dividend to shareholders

ANZ traditionally makes dividend payments to shareholders every six months, payable in July and December. It also offers both a dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) and a bonus option plan (BOP) as alternatives to receiving cash dividends on ANZ ordinary shares.

The bank's most recent dividend was paid out to shareholders in December. It paid 83 cents per share franked at 70%. This brought the total annual dividend to $1.66 per share, at a yield of 4.45%. UBS brokers are projecting a similar payout from ANZ in FY27, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.2% (excluding franking credits).

3. It has a better share price outlook versus some of its peers

Brokers are neutral on the outlook for ANZ shares over the next 12 months. Most have a hold rating with an average target price of $38.01, which implies a potential 2% upside at the time of writing. 

Therefore, ANZ has a better share price outlook than its big four bank peers. Brokers hold a strong sell rating on Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) and Westpac Banking Corporation Ltd (ASX: WBC) with a 25% and 11% downside respectively.

Brokers have a neutral rating on National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares but with a smaller 0.08% average upside. 

The post 3 reasons to buy ANZ shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

A sky-high yield alone can be a trap. The better strategy is to focus on companies with defensive cash flows, strong market positions, and dividend yields above 5%.

Right now, three ASX dividend shares stand out.

APA Group Ltd (ASX: APA)

The first is APA Group, which managed to climb to a new multi-year high on Tuesday.

In afternoon trade, the APA share price was up 1.3% to $9.99, after touching $10.00 in morning trade, its highest level since July 2023.That puts the ASX dividend share up about 30% over 12 months, easily beating the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

The energy infrastructure giant currently offers a dividend yield of roughly 6.1%, with annual distributions of 57 cents per share. 

APA owns critical gas pipelines, electricity transmission assets, and renewable infrastructure across Australia. These assets are difficult to replicate, highly regulated, and supported by long-term contracts. That helps make cash flows more predictable than most industrial businesses.

That reliability is exactly what income-focused investors want in retirement.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ)

The second ASX dividend share is ANZ Group, which is trading at $37.24 at the time of writing.

Australia's major banks remain among the best dividend machines on the ASX, and ANZ continues to screen well for yield and valuation. While it may not offer the explosive upside of growth shares, it combines a solid dividend stream with a business model built around recurring lending income.

According to CommSec, the bank is expected to pay partially franked dividends of $1.68 per share in FY26 and $1.72 per share in FY27. That puts its forward dividend yield at roughly 4.5% for FY26 and 4.6% for FY27.

With interest rates likely to stay higher than the ultra-low levels of the past decade, bank margins should remain supportive of earnings, helping ANZ continue to reward shareholders.

Spark New Zealand Ltd (ASX: SPK)

The third and perhaps more contrarian option is Spark New Zealand. Its dividend yield is currently sitting near a huge 11.3% on ASX pricing. 

That sort of yield naturally comes with more risk, but Spark's defensive telco operations and recurring subscription revenue make this ASX dividend share worth a closer look for investors comfortable with some uncertainty.

The market is clearly pricing in concerns around dividend sustainability, which is why I would rank it behind APA and ANZ for conservative retirement portfolios.

Still, if management stabilises earnings, today's valuation could look very attractive in hindsight.

Foolish Takeaway

If I had to choose just one best blend of value and income, APA Group would be my top ASX 200 retirement pick today.

Its combination of infrastructure-style earnings, a 6%-plus yield, and essential energy assets gives it the kind of resilience that can help retirees sleep well at night, while still collecting a meaningful passive income stream.

The post 3 top ASX dividend shares for retirement income in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

If you do, let's see what Morgans is saying about the ASX shares listed below and whether you should be considering a position in them this month.

Here's what the broker is saying:

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ)

Morgans was relatively pleased with this banking giant's performance during the first quarter.

While the bank is making strong progress with its cost reductions, the broker highlights that its guidance for the full year remains the same.

As a result, it hasn't seen anything to make it more positive and has put a sell rating and $32.65 price target on ANZ's shares. It said:

On face of it, the 1Q26 trading update suggested ANZ was tracking ahead of 1H26 growth expectations. However, the beat was driven mostly by the speed of cost-out and will unlikely affect consensus expectations as ANZ retained its FY26 cost guidance of c.$11.5bn. We make minor adjustments to FY26-28F EPS, reflecting 1Q26 Markets revenue strength, impairment charges lower than expected (but off an already low base), and higher shares on issue (DRP uptake was higher than assumed). 12-month target price $32.65 (+8 cps).

We estimate ANZ is trading on 1.8x P:TBV, 16x PER, and 4.1% cash yield (partly franked), all stretched against historical trading ranges. Given the recent share price strength, we downgrade our rating from TRIM to SELL.

Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG)

Morgans is far more positive on this appliance manufacturer.

After a better than expected half-year result, the broker has put a buy rating and $40.65 price target on its shares. This implies potential upside of approximately 50% from its current share price. It said:

1H26 was better-than-feared, with double-digit sales growth (+10%) largely offset by tariff costs (~130bp GM impact) to deliver a flat NPAT outcome (+1% on pcp). Crucially, FY26 EBIT growth guidance provides much-needed earnings visibility, alleviating some concerns for an extended transition year and improving our confidence for a resumption of sustainable EPS growth from FY27+.

We continue to be impressed by BRG's strong operational execution, green shoots in Food Prep, and powerful medium-term tailwinds (geographic expansion, espresso tailwinds, NPD, Best Buy developments). Buy maintained.

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG)

Finally, Morgans is a fan of this investment bank and was pleased with its performance during the third quarter.

However, due to its current valuation, it only has a hold rating and $223.00 price target on its shares. It commented:

MQG has hosted its annual operational briefing, together with releasing its 3Q26 update.  On the 3Q26 update, we saw this as a solid performance overall, benefitting from market-facing businesses (CGM and Macquarie Capital) seeing results "substantially up" on the pcp.

Additionally, there was an underlying upgrade to CGM guidance, albeit this has been offset, to some degree, by an expected higher FY26 tax rate. We lift our MQG FY26F/FY27F EPS by +2%/+4% reflecting the more positive CGM commentary, blunted somewhat by higher expected tax. Our target price rises to ~$223 (from A$214). We maintain our HOLD recommendation.

The post Buy, hold, sell: ANZ, Breville, and Macquarie shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

March was a difficult month for most stocks following the onset of the Iran war at the end of February.

The resulting conflict in the Middle East saw the Brent crude oil price spike 48% over the month just past, soaring from US$72.50 on 27 February to US$107.50 on 31 March, according to data from Bloomberg.

That's likely to push inflation significantly higher over the coming months, which in turn could pressure global central banks, including the Reserve Bank of Australia, into raising interest rates.

As you're likely aware, the RBA already has hiked the official cash rate twice this year. The second interest rate rise was delivered on 17 March, with the 0.25% lift taking the benchmark rate to 4.10%.

Higher interest rates have the potential to support ASX 200 bank stocks by enabling a larger net interest margin (NIM). But if higher rates and rising inflation lead to a broader economic downturn in Australia, the banks – among other headwinds – could get hit with a material increase in non-performing loans.

With that picture in mind…

ASX 200 bank stocks retreat in March

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) was the best performing big bank stock last month.

CBA shares closed out February trading for $174.62 and finished March at $167.70 each. That put the CBA share price down 4.0% in March, significantly outperforming the 7.8% loss posted by the benchmark index.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares also outperformed the benchmark.

Barely.

Shares in the ASX 200 bank stock closed on 27 February trading for $42.54. When the closing bell sounded on 31 March, shares were changing hands for $39.47 apiece. This saw Westpac shares down 7.2% over the month.

That was a better performance than we saw from ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ).

ANZ shares ended February at $40.04 and closed out March trading for $35.97. The 10.2% decline in ANZ shares over the month underperformed the benchmark.

Which brings us to March's laggard, National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB).

NAB shares closed out February trading for $49.02. On 31 March, shares ended the day changing hands for $41.44. That saw the NAB share price down 15.5% over the month, or almost twice the losses posted by the benchmark index.

Taking a step back

While March saw the big four ASX 200 bank stocks take a tumble, investors who bought any of the banks a year ago will still be sitting on some benchmark beating gains.

Here's how they've performed (as at time of writing today) over the past 12 months, not including dividends:

• NAB shares are up 21.6%
• CBA shares are up 11.0%
• Westpac shares are up 25.6%
• ANZ shares are up 22.6%

The post What happened with ASX 200 bank stocks like CBA and Westpac in March? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

That's not hard to understand. The big four have historically generated strong profits, paid out a large portion of earnings as dividends, and offered franking credits that can boost after-tax returns for local investors.

For many portfolios, bank shares have been a reliable source of income.

However, it's worth noting that the sector's strong share price performance over the past couple of years has had an impact. As share prices rise, dividend yields naturally compress, which means investors today are generally getting lower yields than they might have a few years ago.

With that in mind, let's take a look at how the major banks stack up right now based on consensus estimates according to CommSec.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

CBA shares ended yesterday's session at $173.18.

Consensus estimates currently predict fully franked dividends of $5.20 per share in FY26 and $5.50 per share in FY27 from Australia's largest bank. That equates to dividend yields of around 3.0% for FY26 and 3.2% for FY27.

While that is the lowest yield among the big four, it reflects the bank's premium valuation. Investors have historically been willing to accept a lower yield in exchange for what many consider to be the highest-quality banking franchise in Australia.

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB)

NAB shares were trading at $42.56 at Thursday's close.

CommSec's consensus estimates point to fully franked dividends of $1.76 per share in FY26 and $1.82 per share in FY27. This implies dividend yields of approximately 4.1% and 4.3%, respectively.

That places NAB in the middle of the pack.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC)

Westpac shares last traded at $40.46.

The bank is expected to pay fully franked dividends of $1.56 per share in FY26 and $1.60 per share in FY27. Based on those estimates, Westpac offers dividend yields of roughly 3.9% for FY26 and 4.0% for FY27.

Like NAB, this positions it as a relatively solid income option, though not the highest in the group.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ)

Finally, ANZ shares last traded at $36.65.

According to CommSec, the bank is expected to pay partially franked dividends of $1.68 per share in FY26 and $1.72 per share in FY27. That puts its forward dividend yield at roughly 4.6% for FY26 and 4.7% for FY27.

The partial franking is worth keeping in mind, as it can affect after-tax income compared to fully franked alternatives.

ANZ is the ASX bank with the biggest dividend yield

Based on current consensus estimates, ANZ offers the highest forecast dividend yield among the big four banks.

However, the difference is not especially large, and it comes with the trade-off of only partial franking.

Foolish takeaway

ANZ may currently offer the highest forecast yield, but its partial franking means the after-tax outcome may not be as straightforward when compared to fully franked alternatives like CBA, NAB, and Westpac. At the same time, CBA's lower yield reflects the premium the market places on its quality and consistency.

In my view, the banks can still provide attractive and relatively reliable income, but the best choice will depend on whether you prioritise yield, franking, or overall business quality.

The post Which ASX bank has the biggest dividend yield? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The Reserve Bank raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% this month, marking the second consecutive increase in 2026. The bank cited persistent inflationary pressures and a tight labour market for the increase. 

Now the experts are warning that Australia's inflation rate could keep climbing, and major banks widely predict another cash rate increase in May. 

What's the latest out of ASX bank stocks?

The Australian share market is dominated by the big 4 major banks. Together, the majors – Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) – make up around a quarter of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) by market capitalisation.

Then there are the smaller players, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ), Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN), and Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO). 

At the time of writing on Wednesday morning, CBA shares are up 1% to $172.86; Westpac shares are up 1.3% to $40.25; NAB shares are up 1.4% to $40.31; and ANZ shares are up 1.3% to $36.93.

Over the month, the major bank shares are down 3%, 6.2%, 11.8%, and 7%, respectively.

Outside of the majors, Macquarie shares are 1.9% higher at the time of writing to $198.71; BOQ shares are 1% higher at $6.83 a piece; Bendigo shares are 0.6% higher at $10.11 each; and Judo shares have climbed 0.3% to $1.48.

Over the month, the smaller bank shares are down 4%, 2%, 6.5%, and 14%, respectively.

Which ASX bank stocks are a buy?

Analysts are the most optimistic about the outlook for Judo Bank shares. It's the only ASX bank stock where analysts mostly hold a strong buy rating. Its average target price is $2.25, which implies a huge 51% upside at the time of writing. Although some think this could jump even higher, by up to 68% to $2.50 per share.

Sentiment on the outlook for Macquarie shares is mostly very positive. Most analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the bank's shares. The average $238.28 target price implies the shares could jump 21% from here.

Which ASX bank stocks are a hold?

Analysts are undecided about the outlook for NAB shares, with sentiment mostly for a hold rating. The average target price is $43.90, which implies a potential 1.88% downside at the time of writing.

Brokers are also neutral on the outlook for ANZ shares over the next 12 months. Most have a hold rating with an average target price of $35.56, which implies a potential 0.3% downside at the time of writing.

Sentiment is also neutral on BOQ shares, with data showing most analysts have a hold rating on the stock. However, the average $6.37 target price implies a potential 6.5% downside at the time of writing.

Analysts also mostly have a hold rating on Bendigo shares. Although its average target price of $10.41 implies a 3% upside at the time of writing.

Which ASX bank stocks are a sell?

Sentiment is that CBA shares are overpriced and out of keeping with the company's fundamentals. Most analysts have a sell or strong sell rating on CBA shares and are tipping an average downside of 23% to $133.85 a piece over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.

Westpac is also expected to have limited growth over the next few years. Most analysts also have a sell or strong sell rating on the ASX bank's shares and tip an average downside of 8% to $40.35.

The post ASX bank stocks: Buy, sell, or hold? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Australia's benchmark index is now down 9% since the beginning of the month. 

In this period: 

• National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares have fallen 10%
• ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares have dropped 7.3%
• Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares are down roughly 5%
• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares have fallen 1.37%.

What's impacting bank shares?

There are multiple factors putting pressure on big four bank shares. 

Firstly, energy costs are rising as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. 

This is reigniting global inflation pressures, complicating the outlook for central banks. 

Additionally, CommBank economists note that persistently higher oil prices could weigh on household sentiment at a time when inflation is already pushing higher and interest rates look like climbing. 

This is a headwind for mortgage borrowers and loan quality.

According to Commbank, the longer the conflict drags on, the more pressure banks will face through slower growth, stressed household budgets, and an uncertain interest rate environment. 

I covered last week two possible outcomes from the current conflict and how investors may decide to construct their portfolios. 

For now, the ASX big four remain in a difficult position – caught between a risk-off market and the broader economic damage an extended energy shock would inflict on their customers.

Is there any opportunity in ASX big four bank shares?

Based on current valuations from experts, it appears sentiment is largely cautious on ASX bank shares. 

CBA recently received a sell rating from Medallion Financial Group. 

The note out of the group said its shares are trading at a significant premium to peers despite having similar earnings growth outlook. 

For Westpac, analyst targets indicate it could continue to fall in the near term. 

14 analyst forecasts via TradingView have an average price target of $35.16 on Westpac shares. 

From yesterday's closing price of $39.72, that indicates a downside of approximately 11%. 

ANZ appears to have the most optimistic outlook from recent analysis. 

Citi have recently retained their buy rating and $40.30 price target on ANZ shares. 

This indicates a potential upside of 10%. 

Finally, Samantha Menzies recently laid out the bull case for NAB shares after the recent 10% fall. 

Analysts views on NAB shares are mixed, with price targets ranging from $30 – $50 per share compared to a current price hovering around $42.75. 

Foolish takeaway 

With messaging changing day to day regarding the Iran/USA conflict, it is extremely difficult to predict the future of blue-chip shares like the ASX big four. 

A quick resolution could mean current valuations are an ideal entry point. 

However if the conflict continues long-term, the more pressure these stocks may come under through subdued growth and unclear interest rate decisions. 

The post How have the ASX big four bank shares held up in March? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on 28 February (US time) with the intention of destroying Iran's nuclear capability.

This has caused a global fuel crunch, with oil prices skyrocketing due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait is a crucial shipping lane for transporting oil and gas from the Middle East to markets worldwide.

On top of that, fresh missile strikes on energy infrastructure this week have further disrupted oil and gas supply chains.

These events have far-reaching ramifications for individual businesses relying on fuel to power machines and transport goods.

Higher petrol prices are already having a broader economic impact, contributing to the Reserve Bank's call to raise interest rates this week.

Amid all this volatility, how are Australia's top 10 ASX 200 shares faring?

Are they demonstrating resilience, or have they been caught up in the broader market sell-off?

Let's take a look at their share price performance since the start of March.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

The Commonwealth Bank share price is $176.50, down 0.5% on Friday and up 1.1% since the war began.

Amid the market turmoil, CBA quietly reclaimed its title as Australia's largest ASX 200 share by market capitalisation.

CBA and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) have been passing the crown back and forth for the past few months.

On 27 February, BHP reassumed the title.

Less than three weeks later, CBA shares are back on top with more than $50 billion in market cap separating them from BHP shares.

Over 12 months, the CBA share price has lifted 21.1%.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

BHP is the market's largest mining share, and leads the ASX 200 materials sector.

The BHP share price is $47.56, down 1.6% on Friday and down 18.6% since the war in Iran began.

Over 12 months, BHP shares have lifted 22%, and reached a record high of $59.39 apiece last month.

ASX 200 mining shares have been the worst hit by the war, with the materials sector falling 19% so far this month.

Mining shares have fallen because higher oil prices will directly impact operating costs and potentially production, if there's a shortage.

It is also likely that investors are taking profits after a strong 12-month run for materials amid a new longer-term mining boom in Australia.

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB)

Business lending specialist NAB is the second-largest ASX 200 bank by market capitalisation.

The NAB share price is $45.82, down 1.7% on Friday and down 6.5% since the start of the war.

Over 12 months, NAB shares have lifted 38%, and reached a record $49.45 last month.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) 

Westpac is Australia's oldest bank.

The Westpac share price is $40.87, down 0.6% today and down 3.9% since the war began.

Over 12 months, the ASX 200 bank share has lifted 33%, and hit a record $43.32 last month.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ)

The ANZ share price is $36.78, down 0.7% on Friday and down 8.1% since the war began.

Over 12 months, ANZ shares have lifted 26% and reached a record high of $41 last month.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES)

Wesfarmers is the largest ASX 200 consumer discretionary share. 

The conglomerate owns household names like Bunnings, Kmart, Officeworks, and Priceline.

The Wesfarmers share price is $73.51, down 0.2% today and down 7.7% since the start of the month.

Over 12 months, Wesfarmers shares are up 4%.

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG)

This investment bank is the fifth-largest ASX 200 bank by market capitalisation.

The Macquarie share price is $195.70, down 0.2% on Friday and down 8.3% since the war broke out.

Over the past 12 months, Macquarie shares have fallen by 3%.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

CSL is still the largest ASX 200 healthcare stock, despite a near-halving in its share price over the past 12 months.

The CSL share price is $137.88, up 2.4% today and down 6% since the war in Iran began.

Over 12 months, CSL shares have fallen 46% due to company-specific issues, including a drop in vaccination rates worldwide.

The CSL share price touched an eight-year low of $133.35 yesterday.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

Woodside is the largest ASX 200 energy share on the market.

The Woodside share price is $33.92, up 0.7% on Friday and up 19.8% since the war started.

Over 12 months, Woodside shares have increased by 48%.

The oil & gas giant has benefited from rising oil and gas prices since the war began.

Over the past 30 days, the Brent Crude oil price has soared 47% while the European gas price has skyrocketed 96%.

The Woodside share price reached a two-and-a-half-year high of $34.31 in earlier trading today.

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS)

Telstra is the No. 1 ASX 200 communications share by market cap.

The Telstra share price is $5.31, up 0.1% on Friday and up 2.4% since the war in Iran began.

Over the past 12 months, Telstra shares have risen 28%.

On Friday, the Telstra share price reached a nine-year high of $5.35.

The post Pulse check: How are the top 10 ASX 200 shares performing amid a new war? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The broker highlights that the Bell Potter Australian Equity Core Portfolio aims to highlight attractive investment opportunities within the Australian share market.

It has a focus on paying the right price for high-quality ASX shares that can deliver long-term growth.

Let's see which ASX 200 shares are among its biggest holdings in the portfolio.

Which ASX 200 shares feature in the core portfolio?

Bell Potter's top five holdings in its core portfolio (in order) are ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC), News Corporation (ASX: NWS), Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL), and Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM).

Commenting on its largest holding, ANZ, the broker said:

ANZ is our key pick amongst the banks and rises to 7.5% from 5.0%. CBA (6.0%), NAB (3.0%) and WBC (3.0%) remain underweight relative to index, but the aggregate bank exposure is now higher than it was. We are not calling for a wholesale rotation into banks, but we are recognising that in a firmer rate backdrop the earnings path is supported by higher-for-longer rates deserve more capital than we were giving them.

While the earnings backdrop is more positive, it still does not justify the valuations across the majors and this drives our underweight call. […] ANZ offers the best value in the majors, with cost control and a strong capital position.

The broker also revealed that it is sticking with WiseTech Global despite the selloff caused by AI disruption concerns. Bell Potter believes it is an adapter to AI and will not be displaced. It said:

We remain actively exposed to stocks we think will continue to do well, but we are reducing static weights as the AI trade has driven the benchmark weighting of these companies lower, and AI fears will continue to cap valuation multiples in the short-term.

The stocks we hold are (relative to other tech peers) defensible, have embedded workflows, proprietary data or measurable productivity benefits supporting the earnings path. We keep WiseTech at a lower weight of 3.5% from 4.5% (remains one of our key active positions in the portfolio), reflecting that while valuation and market sensitivity matter, the company remains on the right side of the adapter versus displaced divide.

The post Bell Potter's top ASX 200 holdings revealed appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In late morning trade today, shares in S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank stock are down 0.4%, trading for $176.47 apiece.

Despite today's dip, that sees CBA shares up 19.9% since market close on 21 January.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 3.2% over this same period.

But with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increasing interest rates for the second time in 2026 on Tuesday – lifting the official cash rate by 0.25% to 4.10% – that strong outperformance could be about to shift into reverse.

That's the warning issued by Morgan Stanley this week, with the broker cautioning that CBA's earnings could take a material hit.

Here's why.

Are CBA shares eyeing the perfect storm?

The RBA is back on the tightening path in an effort to rein in resurgent inflation. Higher interest rates work to reduce demand. But if energy prices remain high amid the Iran war, higher rates also could put the brakes on Australia's GDP growth.

Indeed, Morgan Stanley bank analyst Richard Wiles said fast rising interest rates could "fundamentally shift operating conditions" for CBA shares and the other big four ASX bank stocks (quoted by The Australian Financial Review).

"The uncertain environment raises the risk of both earnings downgrades and a de-rating, increasing the probability that banks underperform the ASX 200 in 2026," Wiles said

Amid the prospect of two more RBA interest rate hikes this year, Morgan Stanley expects Australia's GDP growth to slow to 1.6% in 2026, down from 2.6% last year.

This in turn, would likely impact CBA's loan growth. In a worst-case scenario, Wiles said that CommBank could see its earnings downgraded by 8.9%.

Should that occur, Wiles said that CBA shares could plunge more than 42% to $101.50 each.

What about the other big four ASX 200 bank stocks?

It's not just CBA shares that could be looking at a sharp fall.

Wiles estimates that in the above scenario, Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) earnings would be downgraded by 9.7%; ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) earnings would be downgraded by 10.1%; and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) earnings would be downgraded by 14.3%.

That could see Westpac shares fall more than 35% from the current $41.27 to $26.50; NAB shares could tumble more 30% to $32.90; and ANZ shares could fall almost 20% to $29.80 each.

CBA shares and the other ASX 200 banks are at particular risk as they're already trading at high price to earnings (P/E) ratios.

Wiles concluded (quoted by the AFR):

History tells you that when the RBA hikes, bank price-to-earnings multiples go down. It hasn't happened yet, but that's what's happened historically.

Our own forecasts currently assume a favourable operating environment continues. That means the banks are vulnerable to de-rating risk and that an earnings downgrade risk could emerge if the economy slows down more than expected.

The post How higher interest rates could send CBA shares plunging 42% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Three top ASX shares that leading brokers have named as buys this week are listed below. Here's why they are bullish on them:

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ)

According to a note out of Citi, its analysts have retained their buy rating and $40.30 price target on this banking giant's shares. The broker believes that ANZ is the best bank stock to buy now due to its attractive valuation and earnings leverage to higher interest rates. And with interest rates likely to rise in the near future, this bodes well for revenue and earnings growth. Citi also likes ANZ due to its institutional banking exposure and strong balance sheet. The ANZ share price is trading at $37.41 on Monday afternoon.

Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG)

Another note out of Citi reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating and $39.85 price target on this appliance manufacturer's shares. This follows the release of results from the company's rival, De'Longhi. Citi believes the results were positive for Breville, highlighting that they demonstrated that coffee machine demand has remained strong. While there are disruption and freight cost risks from the war in the Middle East, the broker remains positive and continues to see plenty of value in Breville's shares at current levels. The Breville share price is fetching $28.02 at the time of writing.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

Analysts at Bell Potter have retained their buy rating and $35.00 price target on this gold miner's shares. According to the note, Bell Potter was disappointed that Northern Star downgraded its FY 2026 guidance for a second time. This is especially the case given that it thought the company was finally seeing light at the end of the tunnel. While Northern Star has held firm with its cost guidance, Bell Potter expects this to be retracted with its third-quarter update. But despite all these negatives, the broker remains positive. It highlights potential positives from asset rationalisation, given the high capital and operating costs at the likes of Jundee and Thunderbox. The Northern Star share price is trading at $20.64 this afternoon.

The post Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Experts at investment bank UBS have looked at the situation and think that another interest rate increase looks very likely this year. In-fact, UBS has brought forward when it thinks that hike is going to happen, changing its rate hike prediction to this month (rather than May).

For starters, UBS pointed to RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's interview with The Conversation's Politics with Michelle Grattan podcast.

RBA Deputy Governor's hawkish comments

UBS said Hauser's comments to the podcast came just before the 'blackout period' for the March 2026 meeting and the commentary was "hawkish".

The experts suggested that these comments can be viewed as a "signal", along with analysis that inflation is coming in stronger than expected. UBS highlighted the following words from the commentary:

Our projection in February before the Iran attacks was for inflation only to return to the midpoint of the target on the assumption, the technical assumption, that the cash rate did pick up a little bit further from where it is now… We've had some data that seem to have confirmed even more decisively than we had before, that our economy currently has limited spare capacity.

Unemployment came in a bit below expectations. Job adverts and other measures of demand for labour were a little higher. GDP growth came in at 2.6 per cent … but it's rather bigger than our 2 per cent estimate of the capacity of the sustainable rate of growth in the economy. Inflation was in line in January with our expectations … [but] that's well above our target range. So against that backdrop … further increases of prices from Iran, if that is what we end up seeing, and that is a big if, is not a helpful development from the perspective of our policy discussion.

Inflation, GDP and unemployment remain strong

UBS has pointed out in recent commentary that data flow showed CPI inflation, GDP and unemployment was stronger than expected and "warranted further (and earlier) increases in the cash rate".

But, weak consumer data made UBS think the RBA would wait until May.

Hauser's comments seemed to downplay the 'miss' of expectations about consumer spending, while UBS had expected the RBA to place a substantial weight on that aspect.

The rise in the oil/petrol price has led to UBS increasing its CPI inflation forecasts. The broker is now forecasting that the inflation for the first quarter of 2026 will be 1.3% quarter-over-quarter and 4.1% year-over-year. There's potential for the inflation to be even stronger if the oil price shock is prolonged.

UBS said this is worrying for consumer inflation expectations that had already been trending higher for months.

The broker thinks the RBA will look to act early by hiking in March 2026 to "shore against this risk".

Could more RBA interest rate hikes happen?

UBS said it had already been expecting a further 50 basis points of rate hikes by the RBA by August 2026.

The broker said it doesn't think there will be unanimous vote to hike in March, and looking ahead, it will review its RBA profile of the timing, and terminal rate forecasts, after the RBA's March meeting.

Time will tell what happens with interest rates, but UBS and one of the RBA's officials are not liking what they see with regards to inflation. It will be interesting to see how this impacts the net interest margin (NIM) of big banks like Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB)

The post Here's what experts think will happen with the RBA interest rate this month appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

After spiking at an all-time high of $40.98 a piece in mid-February, ANZ shares have fallen 7.4%. Although they're still 4.01% higher for the year to date and 30.53% higher over the year.

What caused ANZ shares to spike to an all-time high?

In mid-February, the ASX bank stock posted a first-quarter cash profit of $1.94 billion, up a whopping 75% from the second-half average of FY25. Operating income was up 4% and cash return on tangible equity climbed 11.7% over the quarter.

ANZ also confirmed that it is pressing ahead with its strategy to simplify its business and reduce operational costs this year. 

The news delighted investors and instilled some renewed confidence into the stock and its other banking peers. ANZ shares closed at an all-time high following the announcement.

So, why has the share price now cooled?

There hasn't been any price-sensitive news out of ANZ since its trading update last month. This implies the drop may have come down to investors taking profit off the table after the shares rallied sharply to their all-time peak.

At the same time, investors are cautious about bank shares as global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and inflation pressures weigh heavily on sentiment across the sector.

What's next for the ASX bank's shares?

Analysts are very split about the outlook for ANZ shares this year. TradingView data shows that six out of 16 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating, and another six have a hold rating. Meanwhile, four analysts have a sell or strong sell rating.

The potential upsides and downsides vary wildly, too. The average price target is $37.09, which implies a 1.87% downside at the time of writing. But some analysts think the shares can jump 13.74% to $43, and others think the stock will crash 31.44% to $25.92.

Following the bank's results last month, Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to a buy with a $41.30 target price. 

Meanwhile, Macquarie and Jeffries have hold ratings on the bank's shares.

Morgans is one of the brokers that is bearish on ANZ shares. The team recently downgraded ANZ shares to a sell. They said that ANZ's quarterly update suggests that it is performing ahead of expectations. But this outperformance was driven by cost-outs. While this would usually be good news, management has retained its full-year cost guidance, the broker noted. 

The post What's next for ANZ shares after expectations-busting results? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.