2025 was the year of multiple RBA interest rate reductions, with three rate cuts. However, some economists think the RBA could raise interest rates in 2026. If that happens, there are a few ASX shares I'd keep my eyes on.
I regularly talk about ASX shares that I'm bullish about, such as Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) and TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE). I still think they (and other ASX growth shares) are opportunities.
But there are a few ASX shares that could become more attractive after an RBA rate cut.
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RBA rate cut beneficiaries
There are some businesses that could see an earnings increase due to how they generate earnings or with the amount of cash that they have on their balance sheet.
For example, Computershare Ltd (ASX: CPU) holds a significant amount of client cash and generates interest income from that. Any rate rises would be a very helpful boost for earnings. There are other, smaller businesses that also hold significant cash balances (for their size). But, the actual investment must make sense too, not just the fact that it holds cash.
The broker UBS recently commented in a note that ASX bank shares could benefit from a rate rise if it means stronger lending margins (with an increase in the net interest margin (NIM) metric). UBS said:
Upside risk [potential boost] to EPS with cash interest rates forecast to increase 50bps in 2026, possibly contributing to a stronger-than-anticipated NIM performance and revenue growth for major banks, exceeding consensus expectations. Core earnings may also benefit from higher-than-expected loan growth, while banks are actively managing persistent cost pressures, which are ~+6.0% on an underlying basis.
With that note, UBS upgraded National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), and Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ) to a buy. NAB is the only major ASX bank share that UBS rates as a buy, with the next major bank choice being Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) with a neutral rating.
Businesses with debt and ASX retail shares
I'm not expecting history to repeat itself exactly, but it wouldn't be a surprise if certain rate-sensitive businesses suffer a share price decline because it could hurt profitability. I like to take advantage of declines in businesses like this, thanks to the lower valuation and the potential for a bounce back.
For example, real estate investment trusts (REITs) may suffer because of the increase in interest costs (and the headwind for real estate values). I'd be looking at names like Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (ASX: CLW), Centuria Industrial REIT (ASX: CIP), and Rural Funds Group (ASX: RFF).
I'll also keep an eye on a number of ASX retail shares – if they decline due to consumer worries, they could be particularly good cyclical opportunities to buy for the long term. I'm thinking of names like Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW), Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV), Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), and Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK).
Volatility can prove to be a positive for investors to take advantage of, so if there is market negativity, then I'll be ready. But it's possible there may not be any declines at all.
