Last week, the Australian dollar crossed the 72 US cents mark for the first time in more than three months. Investors have today returned from the weekend to see our Aussie dollar at about the same level, currently buying 72.1 US cents. It's quite a comeback for a currency that was, as recently as July, trading at under 70 US cents. Moves like this one can seem inconsequential. But they can have a real impact on the value of ASX shares, and Australian investors' portfolios by extension.
Remember, the exchange rate really prices the value of our currency, which naturally has far-reaching consequences across our economy. There are countless factors that pay into what one currency trades at compared to another. I won't pretend to know everything that has caused our dollar to appreciate by close to 5% over the past two months or so. But there's little doubt that inflation (and interest rate) expectations, the ongoing wars in the Middle East and Europe, as well as concerns about the mounting levels of debt in the United States, are all playing a part.
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What moves a dollar?
So what does a higher dollar mean for ASX investors, aside from the odd case of a healthy bout of nationalistic pride?
Well, at a simple level, the primary outcome from an increase in the value of the Aussie dollar is that exporting goods or services becomes cheaper for consumers and companies, while importing becomes more expensive. To illustrate, let's say an agricultural company has to buy fertiliser every month for US$100 a bag. Back in July, that bag would have cost roughly $144.50. Today, that same bag would only set the buyer back by $138.90.
However, let's say that a bushel of wheat that could be grown using that fertiliser costs US$700. Back in July, our company would have received over $1,000 in our local currency. Today, they would get just over $972.
Which ASX shares prosper from a higher Aussie dollar?
A higher Aussie dollar benefits companies that import more goods or services than they export, and punishes companies that export more than they import.
As such, it's clear that the biggest losers from a higher Aussie dollar are our major exporters. Namely, our largest mining stocks. The likes of BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS), and Northern Star Ltd (ASX: NST) are arguably some of the companies most exposed. So to are companies that report their earnings in US dollars. That includes CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) and WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC).
Conversely, net importers will be lining up to enjoy the benefits of a higher Aussie dollar. That might be Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD), which imports petroleum products to refine or on-sell. It could be Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), which receives a huge amount of its stock for Bunnings and OfficeWorks from overseas. Ditto with JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH) or Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN). It could even give Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) and Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) a bit of a margin boost on any food or drinks that are grown or manufactured beyond our shores.
Not all companies are winners or losers, though. Changes in our currency would have little to no impact on the earnings of something like Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) or Transurban Group (ASX: TCL).
Changes in the Aussie dollar can have a tangible impact on one's ASX share portfolio. Keep that in mind if you're wondering why one of your investments has been a bit of a laggard of late, or has jumped in value with no other obvious catalysts.
