After a flurry of ASX stock results delivered to the markets this month, there is only one week to go. Experts from Macquarie have outlined which reports investors should pay attention to this week.
Macquarie noted that in week three of reporting season, results for the June half continued to beat market expectations, with a 'net beat' of 6%. In earnings season to date, the net beat has been 7%, well ahead of this time last year (which was a 'net miss' of 2%).
The broker said that profit margins are still the main source of positive surprises, though sales have also been a small positive surprise too.
Macquarie noted that growth stocks and small industrial ASX stocks have delivered the most earnings beats, while defensive companies and small resource businesses tended to miss market expectations.
Analysts from the financial institution suggested that 'domestic cyclicals' were the key outperformers as they are delivering strong, positive free cash flow surprises and are benefiting from RBA rate cuts. However, 'global cyclicals' have been underperformers, affected by tariffs, foreign currency exchanges and geopolitical risks.
What about dividends?
The broker said that the dividend per share statistic has so far been about 20% better than expected, much stronger than what was expected with earnings per share (EPS), suggesting a higher dividend payout ratio.
The dividends may also suggest that management are more confident on the outlook, in contrast to their soft guidance.
Businesses like Brambles Ltd (ASX: BXB), Seek Ltd (ASX: SEK), Lottery Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLC), Lendlease Group (ASX: LLC) and Downer EDI Ltd (ASX: DOW) all delivered much stronger dividends. Businesses like JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH) and Super Retailer Group Ltd (ASX: SUL) also delivered special dividends.
Macquarie's view on the ASX stock market and some picks
Despite a few painful falls for some businesses, such as James Hardie (ASX: JHX), CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) and Sonic Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SHL), the market has hit new highs each week.
Macquarie explained:
This is because the market is not being driven by earnings, but by liquidity and the expectation of further rate cuts… Banks benefited most from the post-result volatility, outperforming ~4% in Week 3. Investors had been rotating out of banks to stocks seen as offering more value. But as those recovery plays faltered the money went back into Banks as they are liquid and their results risk has passed.
There are a few ASX stocks that Macquarie favours, where there is positive momentum for those ASX stocks, with "positive recent earnings revisions, plus a relatively domestic focus compared to other names we might select."
It named aged care operators Regis Healthcare Ltd (ASX: REG), loan broker Australian Finance Group Ltd (ASX: AFG), airline Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN), and retailer Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN).
We'll see very soon if Macquarie is right on these businesses.
