The ASX share market's reporting season is now just a few weeks away and there are a few things I'm thinking about. I love ASX earnings season, it feels like Christmas, opening up the result and seeing what's there.
The market response to the result often relates to how good the numbers are compared to expectations rather than the actual level of growth achieved. The outlook commentary is also likely to be important for what investors think of the business.
With the results rapidly approaching, there are a few elements I'm considering.
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Is there too much pessimism?
A company's share price is always changing. Over time we notice trends of it rising or falling as the market's optimism or pessimism takes hold until the next major company update.
When businesses head towards an earnings result with too much pessimism, there could be some good value on offer for investors.
If the market has been (too) pessimistic, investors may see a pleasing boost to the share price.
I'm always on the lookout for stocks that seem undervalued for their earnings potential and the upcoming ASX earnings season is the first (but not last) opportunity for a business to send its share price higher.
There are some businesses that seem to me as though they're undervalued for the medium-to-long-term such as Propel Funeral Partners Ltd (ASX: PFP), Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG), Siteminder Ltd (ASX: SDR) and Bailador Technology Investments Ltd (ASX: BTI).
I'm actively looking to invest more in some of the businesses above and other names.
I think there could also be a chance for real estate investment trusts (REITs) to positively surprise if their property valuations have increased in the last six months following two cash rate cuts from the RBA.
Inflation?
Inflation has been a difficult economic factor for businesses. Some companies have complained about rising costs. Others, such as Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) and Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO), have used the inflationary environment to justify sizeable price increases for customers.
I am going to see if the businesses that were previously facing inflationary pressures are now experiencing, or about to see, a bit of breathing room with their margins.
How businesses are seeing inflation now could have an important influence on what the RBA does over the next 12 months. Businesses like Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW), Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) and AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL) could have very interesting things to say.
Will ASX earnings season show some stocks are turning around?
Some discretionary retailers have gone through difficult times in the last few years up until now. I'm thinking of names like Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1), Adairs Ltd (ASX: ADH), Reece Ltd (ASX: REH), Metcash Ltd (ASX: MTS) (which has already reported) and others.
The reported numbers in the upcoming ASX earnings season are likely to show FY25 was another challenging year for some companies. But, the trading update for the first few weeks of FY26 could be very telling. Will they show an improvement year-over-year following interest rate cuts and a weak comparable period in the first few weeks of FY25, implying the worst is over? Or have weak sales growth (or even a decline) continued?
Time will tell, but there could be opportunities. In particular, for investors who are able to spot undervalued businesses that are primed for a turnaround.
