For long-term investors, one way to harness these forces is through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that provide diversified exposure to the stocks driving them.

Here are three ASX ETFs that tap directly into megatrends that look set to run for decades.

Betashares Cloud Computing ETF (ASX: CLDD)

The shift to the cloud is no longer a future trend, it is now core infrastructure for the global economy. Businesses are increasingly moving data storage, software, and computing power away from offline systems and into scalable, cloud-based platforms.

The Betashares Cloud Computing ETF provides exposure to companies enabling this transformation. Its holdings include cloud software and infrastructure leaders such as Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT), ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW), and Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP). These businesses sit at the centre of enterprise digitisation, e-commerce, and workflow automation.

As data usage grows and artificial intelligence (AI) workloads expand, demand for cloud services is likely to keep compounding over time, making the Betashares Cloud Computing ETF a pure-play way to access that structural shift. It was recently recommended by analysts at Betashares.

Betashares Global Robotics and Artificial Intelligence ETF (ASX: RBTZ)

Automation and artificial intelligence are rapidly becoming essential productivity tools. Labour shortages, rising costs, and the need for efficiency are pushing companies to invest heavily in robotics and AI-driven systems.

The Betashares Global Robotics and Artificial Intelligence ETF targets businesses leading this transformation. Its portfolio includes Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA), a key supplier of AI computing hardware, Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG), a pioneer in robotic-assisted surgery, and ABB Ltd (SWX: ABBN), a global leader in industrial automation.

This is a megatrend driven by necessity rather than hype. As economies digitise and industries modernise, robotics and AI adoption is likely to accelerate across healthcare, manufacturing, logistics, and services. It was also recently recommended by the team at Betashares.

Global X Battery Tech & Lithium ETF (ASX: ACDC)

Electrification is transforming transport, energy storage, and power generation, and batteries sit at the heart of that transition. The Global X Battery Tech & Lithium ETF provides exposure to the stocks building the supply chain behind electric vehicles and renewable energy storage.

Its holdings span miners, battery manufacturers, and technology leaders such as Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA), Albemarle Corp (NYSE: ALB), and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd (CATL). Together, they reflect the end-to-end ecosystem required to support the global shift away from fossil fuels.

With governments and consumers pushing toward cleaner energy solutions, and battery costs continue to fall, demand for battery technology and lithium materials could grow strongly for many years. This bodes well for the companies held by this fund.

The post 3 ASX ETFs that benefit from unavoidable megatrends appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Of course, the year isn't over, and anything can happen. But I'll risk prematurely counting my chickens to squeeze in my annual review before everyone is comatose from too much trifle and plum pudding… myself included.

Reflection is a grossly undervalued practice — not just for investing but also in life. After all, "Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it." By reviewing what has transpired before, we can better understand what should be done moving forward.

As of today, my stock-picking portfolio has returned 63.9% in 2024 (including dividends). How does that compare to the broader market? Below are a few indices to stack it up against:

• S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gross total return of 12.3%
• S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) return of 27.6%
• Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQ: .IXIX) return of 35.0%
• iShares MSCI World ETF (NYSE: URTH) return of 22.3%

I won't claim to be some Sage of the Sunshine State. Some years are better than others, and to claim victory as an investor because of one good year would be fallacious. But there is merit in deciphering what worked and trying to replicate the success repeatedly.

What's inside the share portfolio?

In many ways, this year has been a continuation of the last. Again, tech and consumer discretionary have shined bright despite crimped household budgets.

Some of this is arguably fuelled by the excitement surrounding artificial intelligence. This is supported by such companies seeing their valuations soar more from an increasing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio than profit growth.

It makes the stellar year somewhat hard to celebrate. Yes, in the short term, it's great for the ego and the wealth on paper. However, it's not what you want as an investor in the long run. The premium paid for a slice in a company can not expand forever; eventually, its earning power must support it.

A few of my top holdings, Tesla and Apple, are guilty of this earnings-deficient rally. The heightened premium probably reflects optimism about future profitability as we hopefully emerge from a high interest rate environment.

A few notable changes were made to my share portfolio this year.

• Increased my ResMed position
• Increased my Meta position (the owner of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp)
• Added Aristocrat Leisure
• Added Alphabet (the owner of Google)
• Reduced my Propel Funeral Partners position on dilutionary concerns
• Exited Duxton Water amid worsening execution
• Exited Elders on increasing margin pressure

Ultimately, my big winners of 2024 are Tesla, Palantir, Pro Medicus, ResMed, Meta, and Aristocrat. In many cases, these are companies that have been (and possibly continue to be) misunderstood.

ResMed is a prime example. Investors ditched the sleep apnea maker, worried that weight-loss drugs would demolish its market. So far, the impact has failed to materialise, with some suggesting the Ozempic craze is giving the sleep apnea market a boost.

I think the lesson here is that it pays to build conviction. Once you've built a conviction based on logic, it's much harder to lose money through emotionally driven decisions.

Change afoot in 2025

A big part of investing is knowing thyself.

I have limited mining knowledge. So, what am I doing investing in Lynas and Albemarle?

Both investments were added to my share portfolio several years ago, rooted in basic supply and demand principles.

While I've managed to achieve decent returns from both, it isn't a great way to invest realistically. A business is more than its market, and I don't possess the comprehension to understand whether Lynas or Albemarle are good companies compared to their peers based on their resources.

For the above reason, I'll probably sell a few positions in 2025 and redeploy the money to companies I can better understand.

The post These stocks made my share portfolio a market-beater in 2024 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The company will shut down half of its lithium processing facility in Western Australia and halt construction on further expansions, leading to 300 job losses.

This move comes in response to a prolonged slump in lithium prices, which are down more than 85% from their peak. Currently, the battery metal is priced at CNY 83,500 per tonne.

The spillover has had mixed impacts on the basket of ASX lithium shares today. Here is the spread at the time of writing:

• Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares are up nearly 5%
• Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) shares are down 1.5%
• IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) shares are up less than 0.5%
• Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares are down 2.5%
• Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) shares are down 1.6%
• Lake Resources (ASX: LKE) shares have surged over 4%
• Latin Resources Ltd (ASX: LRS) are down 1.7%
• Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares are down less than 0.5%

Let's take a look at what's unfolded today.

Market conditions create headwinds

The price of spodumene concentrate, a primary source of lithium, has plummeted more than 85% from its 2022 highs.

This sharp decline has pressured many lithium producers and explorers, leading to job losses and operational shutdowns across the sector. ASX lithium shares have borne the brunt of this.

This is despite government support for the sector.

According to The Australian Financial Review, the government had recently announced a $17.6 billion critical minerals production tax incentive to attract processing facilities to Australia.

Albemarle noted this in its decision to size down operations here in Australia.

[The. company] today announced it has launched a comprehensive review of its cost and operating structure, as well as immediate asset actions at its Kemerton lithium processing site in Australia.

The company is taking these steps to proactively respond to ongoing industry headwinds, particularly in the lithium value chain, so it can preserve long-term competitiveness. 

The question is, what's next for Albemarle? The company says it plans to focus on ramping up its existing facilities and will explore further expansion only if market conditions improve.

Last year, the company also acquired Western Lithium, which holds exploration tenements in the Pilbara.

The mining giant will maintain a workforce of 460 people at its Kemerton plant and 40 staff in its Perth office. It still intends to begin an exploration program in Australia later this year.

Impact on ASX lithium shares

The overall impact on the ASX lithium basket has been mixed, as shown in the list above. Some stocks are up, and some are down. So there's hardly been a ripple effect.

It's also important to recognise that the market might need some time to digest the impacts fully.

Whilst not an ASX lithium share, Monadelphous Group Ltd (ASX: MND) has been directly impacted by Albemarle's decision.

The engineering company's contract for construction at Albemarle's Kemerton project has been terminated, leading to an estimated $200 million reduction in its current construction work-in-hand.

This news has already caused a more than 5% drop in Monadelphous' share price.

Takeaway

ASX lithium shares continue to show mixed results in 2024. The price of the underlying commodity, in addition to moves such as Albemarle's today, underscores the short-term challenges in the sector.

In my opinion, the market will need a few days to fully digest the magnitude of the decision.

The post Global lithium giant Albemarle has big news: Here are the ASX shares being impacted appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The lithium developer's shares sank as much as 9.5% to 76.5 cents before recovering in late trade.

The ASX lithium stock ended the day 5.5% lower at 80 cents.

Why did this ASX lithium stock crash into the red?

Investors were heading to the exits today after the company released an update on its agreement with lithium giant Albemarle Corp (NYSE: ALB).

According to the release, the two parties' memorandum of understanding's (MOU) nine-month term has concluded and will not be extended.

The MOU was assessing partnership opportunities to study the viability of a downstream lithium hydroxide plant integrated with the Corvette Lithium Project and located in Canada or the United States.

At the time, the ASX lithium stock cautioned that there was no assurance that the MOU will result in the completion of a study or the formation of a partnership or joint venture with Albemarle. Which is exactly what has happened, much to the dismay of shareholders.

What now?

Patriot advised that it now expects to fully engage with other downstream companies in the lithium supply chain. The good news is that management appears confident that it will be able to replace Albemarle.

It notes that as the scale and quality of the Corvette Project has become increasingly evident, it has received significant interest from participants in the lithium industry. Especially given the potential for Corvette to be a large and high-quality raw material supplier for the future of lithium-ion battery supply chains outside China. It believes that being able to fully engage with other downstream companies is in the best interests of shareholders.

The ASX lithium stock's President and CEO, Ken Brinsden, commented:

Our collaboration with Albemarle has been extremely valuable. We are proud of the progress we've made and are excited by the intense market interest in the Corvette project. As we move forward, Patriot is eager to expand its operations and explore new partnerships that support the growing demand for lithium raw materials and chemicals in North America and Europe. We also look forward to continuing our productive relationship with Albemarle in a flexible, non-exclusive format.

As things stand, Albemarle remains the company's largest shareholder, with a 6.4% stake.

Though, with the mining giant paying C$15.29 per share for its stake, it is down heavily on its investment. The company's shares are currently fetching C$8.03 on the Canadian stock exchange.

The post Guess which ASX lithium stock dived 9% after parting ways with Albemarle appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Put simply, it's been a horror day for lithium stocks. Take the Pilbara share price. It's currently nursing a loss of 4.2% down at $4.22 a share.

Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) is down 4.44% to 4.3 cents, while Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares have sunk 4.51% to $1.27.

Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) and Arcadium Lithium plc (ASX: LTM) are faring a little better, but are still down 2.04% and 2.42% respectively.

So why is this corner of the market seemingly getting singled out for punishment today?

Why are ASX lithium stocks getting a Tuesday whack?

Well, it's not entirely clear. There hasn't been any major news or announcements out of any ASX lithium stocks today that might explain this pessimism.

Saying that, what happened in the US markets last night might give us the clue we need to decipher what's going on in this space.

Last night (out time) saw the share price of Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB) tank by a nasty 6.75% down to US$133.20 a share. The company fell another 7.44% during after-hours trading down to US$123.15.

Albemarle is one of the largest lithium companies in the world and often sets the tone for what happens on the ASX with our own lithium stocks. So this fall was never going to bode well for ASX lithium shares like Pilbara.

It seems the reason behind Albemarle's share price plunge was the news that the company is about to conduct a capital raise. According to an SEC filing, Albemarle plans on issuing 35 million new depository shares in order to raise US$1.9 billion.

Albemarle stated the following regarding how it intends to use this US$1.9 billion:

We intend to use the net proceeds of this offering for general corporate purposes, which may include, among other uses, funding growth capital expenditures, such as the construction and expansion of lithium operations in Australia and China that are significantly progressed or near completion, and repaying our outstanding commercial paper.

Given the nature of this capital raise, it's likely that the plummeting lithium prices we've seen in recent months are to blame for Albemarle's evident lack of capital right now.

ASX investors are probably sending our own lithium shares down so severely because if Albemarle, one of the world's largest lithium stocks, needs to raise capital, then it is easy to assume the likes of Pilbara, Aradium, Liontown and Sayona are feeling the squeeze even more acutely.

ASX investors may even be worried that any one of these ASX lithium shares could be next to come cap-in-hand to shareholders.

Let's see if this eventuates.

The post Why are ASX lithium shares like Pilbara Minerals crashing on Tuesday? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In morning trade, the lithium miner's shares are up 12% to 23.5 cents.

What's going on with Core Lithium shares today?

Investors have been scrambling to buy the company's shares this morning despite there being no news out of it.

However, it is worth noting that Core Lithium isn't the only ASX lithium share that is recording a strong gain today. Here's a quick summary of some of the movers and shakers in the industry on Friday:

• Arcadium Lithium (ASX: LTM) shares are up 8%
• Lake Resources N.L. (ASX: LK) shares have also jumped 8%
• Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares are up 4%
• Piedmont Lithium Inc (ASX: PLL) shares have surged 9%
• Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares are up 4%
• Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd (ASX: VUL) shares are 6% higher

Why are ASX lithium shares rising?

Today's gains by Core Lithium's shares appears to have been driven by a strong night for lithium stocks on Wall Street overnight.

This saw Sociedad Quimica y Mineral de Chile SA (NYSE: SQM) shares jump 8% and Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB) shares rise 4.5%.

The driver of these gains was news that the lithium carbonate price in China climbed to its highest level in almost three months.

According to Reuters, the July lithium carbonate contract jumped as much as 7.5% to 112,250 yuan (US$15,592.66) per metric tonne. This is its highest level since 11 December.

Investors appear to believe that this could be a sign that lithium prices have now bottomed and are on the road to recovery.

However, it is worth noting that SQM has just announced that it plans to push ahead with its lithium expansions despite the market being oversupplied. So, investors may want to keep an eye on lithium prices in the coming weeks and months to see if this is just a temporary recovery or something more sustainable.

The post Why are Core Lithium shares jumping 12% on Friday? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Liontown shares are on fire today. This lithium stock is currently up a whopping 7.97% at $1.25 a share.

But these gains aren't just confined to the Liontown share price. The ASX's largest lithium stock, Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS), is experiencing something similar, with Pilbara shares up 5.54% so far today at $4.10 each.

Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) stock has risen 7.7%, while Arcadium Lithium plc (ASX: LTM) shares have increased by 4.43% at present.

So something is clearly in the water with lithium shares today.

Why are ASX 200 lithium shares like Liontown surging today?

Unfortunately, it's not really clear what that something in the water actually is. There's been no major ASX news out today from any of the big lithium stocks.

Looking at the US markets might provide some explanation, though.

Last night during US trading, we saw the share price of Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB) rise significantly. Albemarle, a US$15 billion lithium giant, experienced a 5.82% surge in value last night, with the shares rising from US$121.52 up to US$128.59.

This was potentially a result of a major US broker in Mizuho raising its share price target from US$105 to US$115.

As one of the largest lithium stocks in the world, Albemarle shares often set the tone for what happens with the ASX's lithium players.

So that's one possible explanation for this bullishness we are seeing with Liontown shares and the like.

Another factor we can potentially point to is a growing sense that lithium prices may have found a bottom. ASX lithium shares like Liontown have been smashed in recent months as global lithium prices have plummeted. We saw this quantified in the recent ASX earnings reports from Pilbara Minerals and other lithium shares.

Have lithium prices found a bottom?

Sam Berridge, portfolio manager and resources specialist at Perennial Funds Management, recently told the Australian Financial Review (AFR) that "We are at the bottom… The big question is how long will [lithium] prices go sideways, and that depends on demand, rather than supply".

The same report quoted Ben Cleary of Tribeca Investment Partners, who said:

I don't expect [lithium spodumene] prices to bounce back towards where they were [around $US8,000 per tonne)… But I am comfortable that we could see long-term prices around $US1,200 which would still give Australian producers $US600 a tonne on a 50 per cent operating margin.

Of course, we also can't discount a simple reversion to mean for ASX lithium shares. Before this week, the Liontown share price, as well as that of Pilbara Minerals and other ASX lithium shares, were exploring multi-year lows. It's also possible that some investors are thinking that it's time to start buying back in at these historically low share prices.

Whatever the cause of today's strong bounce in lithium stocks, it will no doubt be welcomed by investors.

The post Why are ASX lithium shares like Liontown having such a bumper session today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lithium stock closed yesterday trading for $1.03. In morning trade on Wednesday, shares are swapping hands for $1.00, down 2.5%.

For some context the ASX 200 is down 0.29% at this same time.

This follows the release of the lithium miner's quarterly update for the three months ending 31 December.

Here are the highlights.

ASX 200 lithium stock slips amid ongoing lithium price headaches

The Liontown share price is sliding despite the company highlighting that its Kathleen Valley Lithium Project remains on budget and on schedule for first production in mid-2024.

The project, located in Western Australia, is now more than 72% complete. Underground mine development kicked off in November.

Open pit mining was also reported to have progressed in line with plans. Liontown mined 1.4 million bulk cubic metres during the quarter.

In preparation for the startup, the ASX 200 miner said it had  222 full-time employees at the end of 2023, with recruitment ongoing.

The quarter just past also saw Liontown execute a long-term Port Access and Services Agreement with Mid West Ports Authority. This will facilitate the export of lithium spodumene concentrate from the Port of Geraldton.

And on 20 October, Liontown completed a $365 million institutional placement. This was supplemented by a $10.8 million placement to chairman Tim Goyder and a $13.8 million Shareholder Purchase Plan.

What did management say?

Commenting on the quarterly results that have so far failed to boost the Liontown share price today, managing director Tony Ottaviano said:

Of the many milestones reached this quarter, the commencement of underground mining was significant and on schedule.

The team has done an outstanding job in seamlessly mobilising to site, commencing six access portals, and achieving 352 total development metres in less than two months. Byrnecut will progressively mobilise further resources to site as we ramp up operations.

Ottaviano added, "I remain confident in our ability to deliver Kathleen Valley, our Tier-1 lithium project, on budget and schedule to first production by mid-2024."

Addressing the capital-preserving decision to delay the project expansion — which was announced on 22 January and saw the Liontown share price close the day down a precipitous 21% — Ottaviano said:

Post the end of the quarter, we announced that we have commenced a review to examine the options of deferring the mine expansion from 3Mtpa to 4Mtpa until market conditions improve.

The decision to undertake a review of the planned expansion and associated ramp-up of Kathleen Valley was based on short- to medium-term lithium price forecasts, which have materially declined in recent months, including an almost 60% drop since October 2023.

As at 31 December, the company had a cash balance of $517 million.

Liontown share price snapshot

There have been some big ups and downs for the Liontown share price over the past 12 months. The ASX 200 lithium stock surged in March following a takeover offer from Albemarle Corp (NYSE: ALB), which eventually did not go through.

But the miner hasn't escaped the impacts of the crashing lithium price, which sees the Liontown share price down 40% since this time last year.

The post Liontown share price slips as plunging lithium price outweighs pending maiden production appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall again

The Australian share market looks set to fall again on Thursday following a poor night of trade on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 38 points or 0.5% lower this morning. In late trade on Wall Street, the Dow Jones is down 0.4%, the S&P 500 has fallen 0.8%, and the Nasdaq is 0.95% lower. Rate cut doubts put pressure on markets.

Oil prices mixed

ASX 200 energy shares including Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) will be on watch after a mixed night for oil prices. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 0.3% to US$72.63 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.4% to US$77.96 a barrel. This follows the release of mixed economic data from China and the US.

BHP update

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares will be on watch on Thursday when the mining giant releases its second quarter update. The market is expecting iron ore shipments of 72.5Mt, which will be a 1% increase quarter on quarter. Elsewhere, copper production is expected to be down slightly to 454kt and met coal is expected to be up 23% to 6.9Mt.

Gold price tumbles

ASX 200 gold shares such as Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a poor day of trade after the gold price tumbled overnight. According to CNBC, the spot gold price is down 1.05% to US$2,008.9 an ounce. This was driven by rate cut doubts.

Albemarle sells down Liontown stake

The Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price will be on watch today amid reports that Albemarle Corp (NYSE: ALB) is offloading its stake in the lithium developer following its failed $6.6 billion takeover. According to the AFR, the lithium giant was looking to sell the stake for a price of $1.26 to $1.32 per share. The former represents a 7.4% discount to its last close price.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In this article, I pull back the curtain on my entire personal portfolio — at least the portion I actively manage — to give some insight into portfolio construction, my 2023 mistakes, and where I most see opportunity for 2024 and beyond.

Let's begin.

Inside my share portfolio

Despite it being another eventful year full of trials and tribulations, equity markets are in the green as we approach the home stretch. The enticing proposition of 5% interest, or more, on cash savings has failed to put a dent in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) — returning 3.3% year-to-date at the time of writing.

Ironically, the tech and consumer discretionary sectors have been 2023's breadwinners — creating some juxtaposition with the ongoing economic tightening. Investors looking ahead to future interest rate cuts might have supported the buoyant optimism in these sectors.

Nonetheless, it meant a much rosier year for my share portfolio, recovering from a rough performance in 2022. As of 7 December 2023, my collection of companies had returned 30.1% YTD, exceeding the Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF (ASX: VGS) by approximately 10%.

While the result is good for the ego, I'll hold off until the 10-year or 20-year return before I go chalking up a win in my books. Still, I'm pleased with the refinement of my share portfolio this year — now holding the following companies:

The 10 largest equity positions in my portfolio constitute approximately 65% of my holdings. This is intentional. These positions are my highest conviction investments, the ones I'm most comfortable having large sums of money in.

During my almost seven years of investing, I've come to learn that time is your most scarce resource as an investor. As such, I dedicate the majority of my time and money towards the top 10 largest holdings in my share portfolio.

If I were to try to know all 22 companies intimately, I think I'd risk being stretched too thin. I still know the nuts and bolts of the remaining 12 companies, but not enough to warrant larger allocations of my wealth to them.

Biggest mistake of 2023

I was taught an expensive lesson this year by an investment in Unity Software Inc (NYSE: U).

Heading into 2023, the game development software company was one of my largest holdings. Due to its robust revenue growth, I was willing to look past the lack of profits. Unfortunately, I also overlooked a few red flags.

The first bright red flag… the company made an enormous US$4.4 billion acquisition at the end of 2022 before refining its own business — funded completely by issuing stock, no less. Secondly, the CEO, John Riccitiello, had a poor track record in making customer-friendly decisions.

Unity announced plans to charge game developers per game download, a move that reportedly would have bankrupted some. The move, since canned, was reminiscent of Riccitiello's proposition to charge Battlefield players to reload in-game.

I eventually sold out of Unity Software in May after learning the hard way how costly poor management can be.

Stock buying plans for 2024

As noted earlier, 14.5% of my share portfolio is sitting in cash. I plan to put this money to work as opportunities arise next year.

For example, Resmed is a relatively recent addition, getting added amid the Ozempic-driven sell-off. I still think the medical device maker trades at an attractive valuation. While weight-loss drugs are expected to reduce the sleep apnea market somewhat, I think the size of the forecast reduction is overblown.

Another ASX share I'm looking to add to is Sonic Healthcare. The chart below shows that Sonic is an insignificant holding in my share portfolio. The paltry position doesn't align with my level of conviction in the medical services provider — it should be much larger.

Lastly, several companies on my watchlist could find their way into my portfolio next year. I'd argue companies such as Kone Oyj, Trane Technologies PLC (NYSE: TT), Super Retail Group Ltd (ASX: SUL), and Nick Scali Limited (ASX: NCK) are high-quality and attractively priced.

The post Rare reveal: A glimpse into my complete share portfolio heading into 2024 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It's been a protracted plummet for lithium prices since they peaked in late 2022.

This week, the lithium carbonate spot price dropped to its lowest level since August 2021 at US$13,843 per tonne. That's a more than 80% fall in 2023 alone.

But over the past two days, Chinese lithium giants Tianqi Lithium Corp UP and Ganfeng Lithium Group Co Ltd have made strong gains.

Tianqi shares are up 6.1%. The stock has lost 31% of its value in the year to date. Ganfeng shares rose 6.1% over the two days, and are down by more than 40% in 2023.

US lithium stocks also moved higher over the two days.

NYSE-listed lithium stocks Albemarle Corporation gained 10.7%, Livent Corp went up 11.1% and Sociedad Quimica y Minr de Chile SA rose 6.1%.

Today, ASX lithium shares are also rising, with all the well-known names up by more than 2%.

Here are some examples:

• Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) shares are up 3.9%
• Allkem Ltd (ASX: AKE) shares are up 3.3%
• Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares are up 3.1%
• Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares are up 4.1%
• Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) shares are up 7.4%
• Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares are up 2.8%
• IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) shares are up 2.1%.

The price pain is almost over, says analyst

Lithium prices are weak due to slowing growth in global sales of electric vehicles (EVs). This is leading to lower demand for lithium in China, the world's biggest EV manufacturer.

At the same time, the global lithium mining industry has been ramping up, and as a result, global stockpiles of the white metal have also increased.

But China Futures Co analyst Zhang Weixin said the downward trend in lithium prices is "already nearing an end".

Weixin reckons they are likely to bottom out between US$11,240 and US$12,650 per tonne (courtesy Australian Financial Review (AFR)).

Traxys advisor Wei Xiong agrees but says an extended period of weakness is still likely.

He says he'll be watching to see "whether high-cost mines will exit" if lithium prices get too low to make operations viable.

By the way, investors can find out how much it costs each miner to produce a tonne of lithium in their company reports.

At the recent Liontown Resources annual general meeting, chair Richard Goyder reminded shareholders that the estimated decade-average cost of production at Kathleen Valley was US$475 per tonne.

Thus, they'll still get "a healthy margin" despite the lithium spodumene concentrate price dropping to US$1,590 per tonne.

Goldman Sachs says lithium prices won't bottom till 2025

Top broker Goldman Sachs reckons lithium prices will finally reach a trough in 2025.

The broker recently downgraded its lithium price forecasts again.

It had been tipping US$15,000 p/t for lithium carbonate but is now forecasting US$11,000 p/t.

It was also forecasting US$16,500 p/t for lithium hydroxide but has reduced that to US$12,000 p/t.

The question is whether ASX lithium share investors should care about any of this short-term noise on lithium prices.

After all, this commodity will play a key role in the world's decarbonisation for decades.

The post Is the lithium price pain 'already nearing an end'? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In morning trade, the lithium industry is a sea of red with heavy declines being recorded across the board.

Here's a summary of how ASX 200 lithium shares are currently performing:

• The Allkem Ltd (ASX: AKE) share price is down 4% to $8.28.
• The Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) share price is down 10% to 23 cents.
• The IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) share price is down 3.5% to $7.76.
• The Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price is down 7% to $1.26.
• The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price is down 4% to $57.47.
• The Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) share price is down 5.5% to $3.34.
• The Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) share price is down 7% to 5.2 cents.

Why are ASX 200 lithium shares being sold off?

Today's weakness appears to have been driven by heavy selling in the industry on Wall Street overnight amid falling lithium prices.

Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile SA (NYSE: SQM) was one of the hardest-hit lithium stocks, dropping 8% during last night's session. Fellow giants Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB) and Livent Corp (NYSE: LTHM) weren't far behind with declines of 5% and 5.5%, respectively.

Lithium prices continue to fall

According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, spot lithium prices have continued to fall since last week.

Its latest data has the following spot prices (per tonne):

• Lithium carbonate: US$16,112
• Lithium hydroxide – China: US$13,695
• Spodumene 6%: US$1,460

This means that prices have fallen 5.6%, 6.7%, and 7.6%, respectively, in the space of a week.

They are also now some distance away from their averages during the first quarter of calendar year 2023. At that point, spot prices per tonne were fetching the following per tonne:

• Lithium carbonate: US$63,232
• Lithium hydroxide – China: US$59,190
• Spodumene 6%: US$4,368

Unfortunately, Goldman sees more pain ahead and is forecasting prices to continue to soften in 2024 and 2025.

The post Why are ASX 200 lithium shares crashing today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to open higher

The Australian share market looks set to open the day higher on Thursday following a positive night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 20 points or 0.3% higher this morning. In late trade on Wall Street, the Dow Jones is up 0.3%, the S&P 500 is up 0.15%, and the NASDAQ is 0.1% higher.

Liontown AGM

Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares will be in focus today when the lithium developer holds its annual general meeting. Investors will no doubt be keen to hear what management says about the failed takeover by Albemarle Corp (NYSE: ALB). Due to Gina Rinehart effectively blocking the deal, its shares have gone from almost being acquired for $3 per share to a share price of $1.35 in a month and a half.

Oil prices rise

It looks set to be a good session for ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices rose overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 1.9% to US$77.88 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 1.7% to US$83.04 a barrel. Oil prices rose ahead of today's OPEC meeting.

Shares going ex-dividend

A couple of ASX 200 shares are going ex-dividend this morning and could trade lower. Gaming technology company Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ASX: ALL) is going ex-dividend for its fully franked 34 cents per share dividend and enterprise software provider TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE) is going ex-dividend for its partially franked 14.9 cents per share dividend. These will then be paid on 19 December and 15 December, respectively.

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Regis Resources Limited (ASX: RRL) could have a good session after the gold price rose again overnight. According to CNBC, the spot gold price is up 0.45% to US$2,048.8 an ounce. Gold hit a seven-month high after US Federal Reserve rate cut bets increased.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Bell Direct market analyst Grady Wulff said this made it "difficult for investors to determine where the best investment opportunities are".

"Assessing the materials and resources sectors involves understanding the macroeconomic environment and impacts of geopolitical events and outlook." 

Helpfully, she has done the leg work on whether three hot minerals are set for boom or bust in 2024:

Will lithium stocks make a comeback?

A lagging Chinese economy meant global lithium prices sank substantially in 2023, which also sent ASX lithium stocks downward.

Wulff reckons the experts she's spoken to say this will have no bearing on the strong outlook for next year.

"All agreed that over time, supply will never outweigh demand and the vitality of lithium's inclusion in the green energy transition will always prove to be a tailwind for the commodity for many years to come."

What about alternative minerals that can be used to make batteries?

"Any talks of a replacement for the lithium-ion battery were quickly shut down by the experts given the long period of time it will take to get a new battery composition to market, how long it took to refine and perfect the lithium-ion battery, and sheer scale of power and efficiency delivered by lithium-ion batteries."

Extra popcorn might also be needed in the new year for lithium stock observers, as corporate takeover activity could continue.

"[This] may also expand into emerging attractive lithium markets like the Quebec region of Canada, as giants like Gina Rinehart and Chris Ellison — as well as leading producers like Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB) — look to expand their respective portfolios into the lithium space."

Will copper finally have its day in the sun?

Copper was forecast to have a massive year in 2023, but that didn't quite eventuate as the global economy coughed and spluttered.

According to Wulff, those in the know are backing ASX copper shares again for 2024.

"There's no denying it had a false start, but the outlook from analysts, fund managers and those at the helm of resources companies is [that] copper is a hot commodity and key element in the energy transition," she said. 

"[This is] not just from an EV front, but for transmission efficiency, reducing emissions and its role in energy storage systems."

Gold is already at a record high

According to Wulff, the gold spot price hovered at 50-year highs throughout this year.

Despite this, experts are maintaining the belief that the precious metal should be "a key part of an investor's portfolio" into the new year.

"Gold is also an area that the experts believe will remain strong in 2024."

The post Lithium, copper and gold stocks: Will they GO OFF IN 2024? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

And while most sides of the market are rising, one area is certainly catching the eye – the lithium industry.

At present, a number of ASX lithium shares are generating strong gains for their shareholders.

Here's a summary of the movers and shakers:

• The Allkem Ltd (ASX: AKE) share price is up 6% to $9.16
• The Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) share price is up 1.5% to 38 cents
• The James Bay Minerals Ltd (ASX: JBY) share price is up 10% to 37 cents
• The Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price is up 2.5% to $1.54
• The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price is up 6% to $63.33
• The Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) share price is up 6% to $3.73

Why are ASX lithium shares rocketing?

While some ASX lithium shares are rising following the release of news, the general driver of these gains has been a strong gain by their peers on Wall Street overnight.

For example, Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB) jumped 10% and Livent Corp (NYSE: LTHM) was up 9% in New York.

Investors were flooding back into the beaten-down lithium industry after US inflation cooled, sparking hopes that interest rate rises are now over. This could be seen as good news for the electric vehicle market, which requires lithium for batteries, as higher rates have an impact on consumer spending.

What about news?

There is also some company-specific news in the industry today, such as Allkem receiving FIRB approval for its proposed merger with Livent Corp.

In addition, James Bay Minerals revealed elevated lithium readings from the portable LIBS analyser obtained from the Hawker and Gauntlet pegmatites. This is located within the company's Aero Property.

The post Why are ASX lithium shares like Pilbara Minerals going gangbusters today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

ASX lithium shares performing strongly on Friday include:

• Azure Minerals Ltd (ASX: AZS) shares up 8.6%
• IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) shares up 4.4%
• Allkem Ltd (ASX: AKE) shares up 4.1%
• Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares up 1.9%
• Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares up 6.6%
• Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) shares up 10.2%
• Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) shares up 7.6%.

Meantime, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is up 1.1%.

Albemarle dropped its third-quarter report on Wednesday, and its bosses conducted a conference call with analysts yesterday.

Let's take a look at the report's details and what the management team said during the webcast.

How Q3 looked for Albemarle

For the three months ending 30 September, Albemarle reported net sales of $2.3 billion, up 10% year over year (yoy), and net income of $302.5 million or $2.57 per diluted share.

Adjusted EBITDA came in at $453.3 million. The adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) was $2.74.

In a statement, Albemarle CEO Kent Masters said:

Albemarle grew net sales by 10%, driven by higher volumes in our Energy Storage business.

In the third quarter, we formed new strategic partnerships and streamlined our existing MARBL joint venture to better position Albemarle for long-term growth.

On the conference call, Eric Norris, Albemarle's President of Energy Storage, said all of the company's contracts were performing despite lower EV production in 2023 due to an inventory correction.

He said: "… what's happening now is road bumps, but certainly not a determinant for the long-term growth we have."

Albemarle issues FY23 earnings downgrade

Lower lithium commodity prices and higher costs of production have resulted in an earnings downgrade for full-year FY23.

Back in August, Albemarle told the market it was expecting net sales of between $10.4 and 11.5 billion. Now, it expects net sales of between $9.5 billion to $9.8 billion.

Its forecasted adjusted EBITDA has gone from a range of $3.8 billion to $4.4 billion to a range of $3.2 billion to $3.4 billion.

The company detailed its full-year outlook for sales and EBITDA:

Net sales are expected to increase 30% to 35% over the prior year, primarily driven by new mining and conversion capacity delivering 30% to 35% volumetric growth in Energy Storage.

Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be flat to down 5% year over year, primarily due to lower Energy Storage pricing as well as the realization of higher spodumene pricing in costs of goods sold from our JV-owned mines.

Albemarle is now reviewing its capital expenditure and intends to pull back on M&A activities after its failed takeover bid for Liontown Resources.

Albemarle and its joint venture partners at Greenbushes are reportedly considering production cuts amid falling demand for EVs, particularly in China.

Trading Economics reports that EV sales in China are expected to fall by 11% this year, while Masters warns that EV sales in the US and Europe could also decline next year due to a softer global economy.

The post Albemarle wipes $1 billion off FY23 earnings forecast as ASX lithium shares fly on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Both companies have been through a lot of volatility in recent weeks. The Liontown share price suffered a crash when Albemarle walked away from its acquisition attempt, while Pilbara Minerals is suffering from market malaise. Just look at the pain on the chart below.

Liontown Resources upgrade

According to reporting by The Australian, the broker Wilsons has upgraded its rating on the ASX lithium share Liontown Resources.

Wilsons has increased its rating on the ASX mining share to overweight, which essentially means buy.

The Australian reported on comments by Wilsons that the $367 million capital raising at $1.80 per share was bigger than expected.

Liontown Resources also announced that it had signed a commitment letter and approved term sheet with a syndicate of leading international and domestic commercial banks and government credit agencies for an A$760 million debt funding package on "very attractive commercial terms and includes long duration project finance facilities and an optional cost overrun / working capital facility."

The Australian reported on what the analysts said in a note about the ASX lithium share:

The equity raise priced at a discount to prior trading levels ($2.79 per share) was
significantly larger than we had previously anticipated, given the amount of capital the company has raised is significantly in excess of what previous company indications were for its requirements.

The key difference is the $350m-odd liquidity and cost overrun buffer which the
company has chosen to allow for.

The Liontown Resources share price remains down by around 40% from 10 October 2023.

Pilbara Minerals shares upgraded

According to The Australian, The ASX lithium share was raised to a buy by the broker Jarden Securities.

This comes after the company's 30% decline since 10 August 2023.

My colleague James Mickleboro recently wrote a piece on what investors may see from Pilbara Minerals' upcoming quarterly update for the three months to September 2023.

The ASX lithium share should tell investors about how much lithium it produced, how much it sold, its costs and what it sold its production for. This could have a significant impact on the Pilbara Minerals share price if it's much better or worse than what the market was expecting.

The post 2 ASX lithium shares just upgraded by top brokers appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Shares in Liontown have tumbled more than 30% following the withdrawal of a takeover bid from North Carolina-based Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB) — one of the largest lithium producers globally. It is believed, though not explicitly confirmed, that the $3 per share offer fell through due to Gina Rinehart's 19.9% stake creating "complexities" to the transaction, as Albermarle put it.

One week on from sharing a parting glass with Albermarle, where does Liontown Resources stand?

How is the lithium company positioned now?

The Kathleen Valley Lithium project was assigned $951 million in project capital costs in September in order to reach production. Prior to October, all major contracts for construction and mining had already been awarded, making funding a priority.

However, without Albermarle's coffers, Liontown needed to come up with the cash elsewhere. Both debt and equity markets were tapped to get the funds needed to bring Kathleen Valley to life. The funding is comprised of $760 million in debt and up to $421 million in equity.

The combination of the two exceeds the aforementioned $951 million in capital costs. As Liontown chair Tim Goyder phrased it in the video above, "We are now fully funded with a rock-solid balance sheet to complete construction and move into production and beyond."

Unfortunately, the capital raising means the total number of Liontown shares will increase by approximately 10%. In turn, any shareholders who aren't able to participate fully will be diluted.

It is believed Gina Rinehart, Western Australia's mining magnate, participated in the raise. If true, it would mean the Hancock Prospecting executive chair would retain a 19.9% stake in the lithium upcomer.

As of 19 October, Liontown was said to be on track to start producing the critical material by mid-2024.

Looking ahead for the Liontown Resources share price

What the Liontown Resources share price will look like a year from now will be predicated on a range of factors. Assuming the Goyder-guided company reaches production next year, the price of lithium will arguably hold the most influence over the miner's value.

Currently, analysts are divided over the prospects for the Liontown share price.

Both Barrenjoey and JP Morgan have cut their ratings to underweight and assigned price targets of $1.60 and $1.30, respectively. In contrast, the team at Macquarie raised their rating to outperform with a $2.70 target on Liontown shares.

Macquarie's price target would suggest a potential 49% upside to the current Liontown share price of $1.82.

The post Albemarle aftermath: What a dropped takeover means for Liontown shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In afternoon trade, the lithium miner's shares are down 5% to $10.56.

This latest decline means that its shares are down approximately 36% over the last three months.

Why is the Allkem share price falling today?

Investors have been selling Allkem and other ASX lithium shares today following another poor night of trade for their peers on Wall Street.

Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB), Livent Corp (NYSE: LTHM), and Sociedad Quimica y Minr de Chile SA (NYSE: SQM) all fell ~5% or more and hit 52-week lows during the session.

This has been driven partly by a bearish broker note out of Bank of America, which warned that the lithium market would be oversupplied in 2024 and 2025.

The market appears to believe that this will mean that lithium prices continue to fall and then remain at low levels for the coming years.

Though, regular readers shouldn't find this surprising. I've been warning that lithium prices could crash since the start of the year.

At that point, the lithium spodumene 6% spot price was US$5,990 per tonne and the lithium carbonate spot price was US$66,750 per tonne. At the end of last week, spot prices were US$2,230 and US$20,652 per tonne, respectively.

Is this a buying opportunity?

Goldman Sachs continues to believe that the Allkem share price is great value even though it expects lithium prices to keep falling.

Its analysts have a buy rating and a $15.20 price target, which implies a potential upside of approximately 44% for investors. The broker said:

Allkem has one of the best production outlooks in our lithium coverage, with broad-based growth optionality. This drives our forecast for the company's equity LCE production growth of ~4x over five years to FY28E, supporting earnings rebounding to near current record levels despite the declining lithium price environment.

The post Allkem share price sinks a further 5%: Is this a buying opportunity? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

That's because the lithium developer has requested a trading halt after dropping a shock announcement.

What's going on with the Liontown share price?

This morning, the company requested an immediate trading halt after announcing that Albemarle Corp (NYSE: ALB) had withdrawn its takeover proposal.

As a reminder, Albemarle tabled a non-binding offer of $3 per share last month and was undertaking its due diligence.

However, during this period of due diligence, Gina Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting was able to acquire a stake of 19.9% in Liontown. This effectively meant that Rinehart had the power to block any takeover should she wish to.

It appears that this blocking stake is the reason why Albemarle has pulled the pin on the deal. Liontown explains:

Albemarle has advised Liontown that its decision to withdraw its proposal was due to the growing complexities associated with executing the transaction. Albemarle has confirmed to Liontown its favourable view of the flagship Kathleen Valley project and Liontown's management.

What now?

Liontown advised that it remains "committed to delivering on its strategic plan and is confident in its ability to thrive independently." It adds:

The Board of Directors and leadership team maintains an absolute focus on delivering the flagship Kathleen Valley Lithium Project into production, maximising the full potential from Liontown's assets including downstream potential, and, importantly, creating long-term value for all shareholders.

However, it is going to have to source funding for the project now that Albemarle has dropped out. This is why the company has requested a trading halt this morning. Its request states the following:

Liontown considers that the trading halt is necessary to allow for the finalisation of funding associated with the Kathleen Valley Project.

The Liontown share price is expected to be out of action until the commencement of trade on Wednesday.

The post Liontown share price halted after Albemarle takeover collapse appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.